Machine-learning predicted and actual 2-year structural progression in the IMI-APPROACH cohort.

In the Innovative Medicine's Initiative Applied Public-Private Research enabling OsteoArthritis Clinical Headway (IMI-APPROACH) knee osteoarthritis (OA) study, machine learning models were trained to predict the probability of structural progression (s-score), predefined as >0.3 mm/year joint space width (JSW) decrease and used as inclusion criterion. The current objective was to evaluate predicted and observed structural progression over 2 years according to different radiographic and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based structural parameters. Radiographs and MRI scans were acquired at baseline and 2-year follow-up. Radiographic (JSW, subchondral bone density, osteophytes), MRI quantitative (cartilage thickness), and MRI semiquantitative [SQ; cartilage damage, bone marrow lesions (BMLs), osteophytes] measurements were obtained. The number of progressors was calculated based on a change exceeding the smallest detectable change (SDC) for quantitative measures or a full SQ-score increase in any feature. Prediction of structural progression based on baseline s-scores and Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grades was analyzed using logistic regression. Among 237 participants, around 1 in 6 participants was a structural progressor based on the predefined JSW-threshold. The highest progression rate was seen for radiographic bone density (39%), MRI cartilage thickness (38%), and radiographic osteophyte size (35%). Baseline s-scores could only predict JSW progression parameters (most P>0.05), while KL grades could predict progression of most MRI-based and radiographic parameters (P<0.05). In conclusion, between 1/6 and 1/3 of participants showed structural progression during 2-year follow-up. KL scores were observed to outperform the machine-learning-based s-scores as progression predictor. The large amount of data collected, and the wide range of disease stage, can be used for further development of more sensitive and successful (whole joint) prediction models. Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov number NCT03883568.

Mediation of the association between obesity and osteoarthritis by blood pressure, vessel wall stiffness and subclinical atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the role of blood pressure, vessel wall stiffness [pulse wave velocity (PWV)] and subclinical atherosclerosis markers [carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), popliteal vessel wall thickness (pVWT)] as mediators of the association of obesity with OA. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from a subset of the population-based NEO study (n = 6334). We classified clinical hand and knee OA by the ACR criteria, and structural knee OA, effusion and bone marrow lesions on MRI (n = 1285). cIMT was assessed with ultrasonography. pVWT was estimated on knee MRI (n = 1285), and PWV by abdominal velocity-encoded MRIs (n = 2580), in subpopulations. Associations between BMI and OA were assessed with logistic regression analyses, adjusted for age, sex and education. Blood pressure, cIMT, pVWT and PWV were added to the model to estimate mediation. RESULTS: The population consisted of 55% women, with a mean (s.d.) age of 56(6) years. Clinical hand OA was present in 8%, clinical knee OA in 10%, and structural knee OA in 12% of participants. BMI was positively associated with all OA outcomes. cIMT partially mediated the association of BMI with clinical hand OA [10.6 (6.2; 30.5)%], structural knee OA [3.1 (1.9; 7.3)%] and effusion [10.8 (6.0; 37.6)%]. Diastolic blood pressure [2.1 (1.6; 3.0)%] minimally mediated the association between BMI and clinical knee OA. PWV and pVWT did not mediate the association between BMI and OA. CONCLUSIONS: cIMT and diastolic blood pressure minimally mediated the association of BMI with OA. This suggests that such mediation is trivial in the middle-aged population.

Cohort profile: The Applied Public-Private Research enabling OsteoArthritis Clinical Headway (IMI-APPROACH) study: a 2-year, European, cohort study to describe, validate and predict phenotypes of osteoarthritis using clinical, imaging and biochemical markers.

PURPOSE: The Applied Public-Private Research enabling OsteoArthritis Clinical Headway (APPROACH) consortium intends to prospectively describe in detail, preselected patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA), using conventional and novel clinical, imaging, and biochemical markers, to support OA drug development. PARTICIPANTS: APPROACH is a prospective cohort study including 297 patients with tibiofemoral OA, according to the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria. Patients were (pre)selected from existing cohorts using machine learning models, developed on data from the CHECK cohort, to display a high likelihood of radiographic joint space width (JSW) loss and/or knee pain progression. FINDINGS TO DATE: Selection appeared logistically feasible and baseline characteristics of the cohort demonstrated an OA population with more severe disease: age 66.5 (SD 7.1) vs 68.1 (7.7) years, min-JSW 2.5 (1.3) vs 2.1 (1.0) mm and Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score pain 31.3 (19.7) vs 17.7 (14.6), except for age, all: p<0.001, for selected versus excluded patients, respectively. Based on the selection model, this cohort has a predicted higher chance of progression. FUTURE PLANS: Patients will visit the hospital again at 6, 12 and 24 months for physical examination, pain and general health questionnaires, collection of blood and urine, MRI scans, radiographs of knees and hands, CT scan of the knee, low radiation whole-body CT, HandScan, motion analysis and performance-based tests.After two years, data will show whether those patients with the highest probabilities for progression experienced disease progression as compared to those wit lower probabilities (model validation) and whether phenotypes/endotypes can be identified and predicted to facilitate targeted drug therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03883568.

TNF inhibitor treatment is associated with a lower risk of hand osteoarthritis progression in rheumatoid arthritis patients after 10 years.

Objective: To investigate the effect of TNF inhibitors (TNFis) on incidental and progressive hand OA in recent-onset RA patients after a 10 year follow-up. Methods: Radiographs of 262 RA patients (mean age 52 years, 66% women) from the BeSt study were scored for osteophytes in DIP/PIP joints using the Osteoarthritis Research Society International atlas (0-3; summed score 0-54) and according to the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score (0-4; summed score 0-72) at baseline and 10 year follow-up. TNFi treatment was assessed on visits every 3 months. Associations between TNFi treatment and hand OA were analysed on the patient and joint level using generalized linear models and generalized estimating equations, respectively. Results: Fifty-eight percent of the patients were treated with TNFi, with a median duration of 42 months. A total of 143 patients (55%) had hand OA in any IP joint at baseline based on the Osteoarthritis Research Society International osteophyte score. On the patient level, TNFi treatment duration did not affect incidental hand OA. However, every month of TNFi treatment resulted in a reduced relative risk (RR) of hand OA progression in DIP joints [relative risk (RR) 0.987 (95% CI 0.978, 0.996)] but not in PIP joints. On the joint level, the effect on hand OA progression was observed in DIP joints [RR 0.996 (95% CI 0.991, 1.000)] but not in PIP joints. The results from the KL score analyses were comparable to the osteophyte score. Conclusion: TNFi treatment was associated with a reduced risk on radiographic hand OA progression in DIP joints but not in PIP joints after 10 years. Although the effect sizes are small, these results provide evidence for influence of TNF-α in hand OA pathogenesis.