Persistent albuminuria and chronic kidney disease in adults with sickle cell anaemia: Results from a multicenter natural history study.

Clinical and laboratory correlates of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in sickle cell anaemia remain incompletely defined. In a multicenter cohort study, we evaluated the prevalence of persistent albuminuria (PA) and characteristics associated with PA, albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) and decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using logistic, linear and multinomial regression models, respectively. Of 269 participants (median age: 30 years; 57.2% females), the prevalence of PA was 35.7%. Using baseline ACR values of <100 and ≥100 mg/g, the probabilities of PA were 30.0% and 94.6%, respectively. In multivariable logistic regression analyses, male sex (ß = 0.80 [SE = 0.36], p = 0.024) and ACE inhibitors/ARBs use (ß = 1.54 [SE = 0.43], p < 0.001) were associated with higher likelihoods of PA, while higher haemoglobin (ß = -0.33 [SE = 0.13], p = 0.009) and HbF (ß = -0.04 [SE = 0.02], p = 0.041) were associated with lower likelihoods of PA. In multivariable multinomial regression analyses, older age (ß = 0.06 [SE = 0.02], p = 0.004) and higher alkaline phosphatase (ß = 0.01 [SE = 0.00], p = 0.004) were associated with higher odds of having eGFR 60-90 versus eGFR>90 mL/min/1.73 m2 using the cystatin C-based CKD-EPI-2012 equation. Additionally, higher systolic blood pressure (ß = 0.11 [SE = 0.03], p = 0.001) and blood urea nitrogen (ß = 0.45 [SE = 0.12], p < 0.001) were associated with higher odds, while higher haemoglobin (ß = -1.22 [SE = 0.43], p = 0.004) was associated with lower odds of having eGFR<60 versus eGFR>90 mL/min/1.73 m2. PA and decreased eGFR are associated with measures of disease severity and comorbid conditions (Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT03277547).

Polygenic transcriptome risk scores for COPD and lung function improve cross-ethnic portability of prediction in the NHLBI TOPMed program.

While polygenic risk scores (PRSs) enable early identification of genetic risk for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), predictive performance is limited when the discovery and target populations are not well matched. Hypothesizing that the biological mechanisms of disease are shared across ancestry groups, we introduce a PrediXcan-derived polygenic transcriptome risk score (PTRS) to improve cross-ethnic portability of risk prediction. We constructed the PTRS using summary statistics from application of PrediXcan on large-scale GWASs of lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s [FEV1] and its ratio to forced vital capacity [FEV1/FVC]) in the UK Biobank. We examined prediction performance and cross-ethnic portability of PTRS through smoking-stratified analyses both on 29,381 multi-ethnic participants from TOPMed population/family-based cohorts and on 11,771 multi-ethnic participants from TOPMed COPD-enriched studies. Analyses were carried out for two dichotomous COPD traits (moderate-to-severe and severe COPD) and two quantitative lung function traits (FEV1 and FEV1/FVC). While the proposed PTRS showed weaker associations with disease than PRS for European ancestry, the PTRS showed stronger association with COPD than PRS for African Americans (e.g., odds ratio [OR] = 1.24 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.43] for PTRS versus 1.10 [0.96-1.26] for PRS among heavy smokers with ≥ 40 pack-years of smoking) for moderate-to-severe COPD. Cross-ethnic portability of the PTRS was significantly higher than the PRS (paired t test p < 2.2 × 10-16 with portability gains ranging from 5% to 28%) for both dichotomous COPD traits and across all smoking strata. Our study demonstrates the value of PTRS for improved cross-ethnic portability compared to PRS in predicting COPD risk.

Association of Nonobstructive Chronic Bronchitis With Respiratory Health Outcomes in Adults.

Importance: Chronic bronchitis has been associated with cigarette smoking as well as with e-cigarette use among young adults, but the association of chronic bronchitis in persons without airflow obstruction or clinical asthma, described as nonobstructive chronic bronchitis, with respiratory health outcomes remains uncertain. Objective: To assess whether nonobstructive chronic bronchitis is associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes in adult ever smokers and never smokers. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included 22 325 adults without initial airflow obstruction (defined as the ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second [FEV1] to forced vital capacity [FVC] of <0.70) or clinical asthma at baseline. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Pooled Cohorts Study harmonized and pooled data from 9 US general population-based cohorts. Thus present study is based on data from 5 of these cohorts. Participants were enrolled from August 1971 through May 2007 and were followed up through December 2018. Exposures: Nonobstructive chronic bronchitis was defined by questionnaire at baseline as both cough and phlegm for at least 3 months for at least 2 consecutive years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Lung function was measured by prebronchodilator spirometry. Hospitalizations and deaths due to chronic lower respiratory disease and respiratory disease-related mortality were defined by events adjudication and administrative criteria. Models were stratified by smoking status and adjusted for anthropometric, sociodemographic, and smoking-related factors. The comparison group was participants without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis. Results: Among 22 325 adults included in the analysis, mean (SD) age was 53.0 (16.3) years (range, 18.0-95.0 years), 58.2% were female, 65.9% were non-Hispanic white, and 49.6% were ever smokers. Among 11 082 ever smokers with 99 869 person-years of follow-up, participants with nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (300 [2.7%]) had accelerated decreases in FEV1 (4.1 mL/y; 95% CI, 2.1-6.1 mL/y) and FVC (4.7 mL/y; 95% CI, 2.2-7.2 mL/y), increased risks of chronic lower respiratory disease-related hospitalization or mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.7-2.7), and greater respiratory disease-related (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.8) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.8) compared with ever smokers without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis. Among 11 243 never smokers with 120 004 person-years of follow-up, participants with nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (151 [1.3%]) had greater rates of chronic lower respiratory disease-related hospitalization or mortality (HR, 3.1; 95% CI, 2.1-4.5) compared with never smokers without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis. Nonobstructive chronic bronchitis was not associated with FEV1:FVC decline or incident airflow obstruction. The presence of at least 1 of the component symptoms of nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (ie, chronic cough or phlegm), which was common in both ever smokers (11.0%) and never smokers (6.7%), was associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that nonobstructive chronic bronchitis is associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes, particularly in ever smokers, and may be a high-risk phenotype suitable for risk stratification and targeted therapies.

Polycystic Ovary Syndrome Signs and Metabolic Syndrome in Premenopausal Hispanic/Latina Women: the HCHS/SOL Study.

CONTEXT: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), a condition of androgen excess in women, is associated with cardiometabolic risk factors; however, this association is not fully characterized in a population-based sample of premenopausal women and high-risk groups such as Hispanics/Latinas. OBJECTIVE: We examined the association of PCOS signs and metabolic syndrome (MetS) in premenopausal Hispanic/Latina women. METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis includes 1427 women age 24 to 44 years from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos. PCOS signs included menstrual cycle greater than 35 days or irregular, self-reported PCOS, and oral contraceptive use to regulate periods or acne, and a composite of 1 or more PCOS signs. We calculated odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI for MetS, accounting for sociodemographic factors and the complex survey design; an additional model included body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: The mean age was 34 years and 30% reported any PCOS sign. The odds of MetS were higher in women reporting cycles greater than 35 days or irregular (OR 1.63; CI: 1.07-2.49) vs cycles 24 to 35 days, self-reported PCOS (OR 2.49; CI: 1.38-4.50) vs no PCOS, and any PCOS sign (OR 1.58; CI: 1.10-2.26) vs none. We found no association between OC use to regulate periods or acne and MetS (OR 1.1; CI: 0.6-1.8). When adjusting for BMI, only the association of self-reported PCOS and MetS was attenuated (OR 1.78; CI: 0.92-3.44). CONCLUSIONS: In Hispanic/Latina women, irregular menstrual cycles, self-reported PCOS, and any PCOS sign were associated with MetS and could indicate women at metabolic disease risk.

Lung function decline in former smokers and low-intensity current smokers: a secondary data analysis of the NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study.

BACKGROUND: Former smokers now outnumber current smokers in many developed countries, and current smokers are smoking fewer cigarettes per day. Some data suggest that lung function decline normalises with smoking cessation; however, mechanistic studies suggest that lung function decline could continue. We hypothesised that former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers, including among those without prevalent lung disease. METHODS: We used data on six US population-based cohorts included in the NHLBI Pooled Cohort Study. We restricted the sample to participants with valid spirometry at two or more exams. Two cohorts recruited younger adults (≥17 years), two recruited middle-aged and older adults (≥45 years), and two recruited only elderly adults (≥65 years) with examinations done between 1983 and 2014. FEV1 decline in sustained former smokers and current smokers was compared to that of never-smokers by use of mixed models adjusted for sociodemographic and anthropometric factors. Differential FEV1 decline was also evaluated according to duration of smoking cessation and cumulative (number of pack-years) and current (number of cigarettes per day) cigarette consumption. FINDINGS: 25 352 participants (ages 17-93 years) completed 70 228 valid spirometry exams. Over a median follow-up of 7 years (IQR 3-20), FEV1 decline at the median age (57 years) was 31·01 mL per year (95% CI 30·66-31·37) in sustained never-smokers, 34·97 mL per year (34·36-35·57) in former smokers, and 39·92 mL per year (38·92-40·92) in current smokers. With adjustment, former smokers showed an accelerated FEV1 decline of 1·82 mL per year (95% CI 1·24-2·40) compared to never-smokers, which was approximately 20% of the effect estimate for current smokers (9·21 mL per year; 95% CI 8·35-10·08). Compared to never-smokers, accelerated FEV1 decline was observed in former smokers for decades after smoking cessation and in current smokers with low cumulative cigarette consumption (<10 pack-years). With respect to current cigarette consumption, the effect estimate for FEV1 decline in current smokers consuming less than five cigarettes per day (7·65 mL per year; 95% CI 6·21-9·09) was 68% of that in current smokers consuming 30 or more cigarettes per day (11·24 mL per year; 9·86-12·62), and around five times greater than in former smokers (1·57 mL per year; 1·00-2·14). Among participants without prevalent lung disease, associations were attenuated but were consistent with the main results. INTERPRETATION: Former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers. These results suggest that all levels of smoking exposure are likely to be associated with lasting and progressive lung damage. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, National Heart Lung and Blood Institute, and US Environmental Protection Agency.

Albuminuria, Lung Function Decline, and Risk of Incident Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. The NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study.

RATIONALE: Chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRDs), including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma, are the fourth leading cause of death. Prior studies suggest that albuminuria, a biomarker of endothelial injury, is increased in patients with COPD. OBJECTIVES: To test whether albuminuria was associated with lung function decline and incident CLRDs. METHODS: Six U.S. population-based cohorts were harmonized and pooled. Participants with prevalent clinical lung disease were excluded. Albuminuria (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio) was measured in spot samples. Lung function was assessed by spirometry. Incident CLRD-related hospitalizations and deaths were classified via adjudication and/or administrative criteria. Mixed and proportional hazards models were used to test individual-level associations adjusted for age, height, weight, sex, race/ethnicity, education, birth year, cohort, smoking status, pack-years of smoking, renal function, hypertension, diabetes, and medications. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 10,961 participants with preserved lung function, mean age at albuminuria measurement was 60 years, 51% were never-smokers, median albuminuria was 5.6 mg/g, and mean FEV1 decline was 31.5 ml/yr. For each SD increase in log-transformed albuminuria, there was 2.81% greater FEV1 decline (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86-4.76%; P = 0.0047), 11.02% greater FEV1/FVC decline (95% CI, 4.43-17.62%; P = 0.0011), and 15% increased hazard of incident spirometry-defined moderate-to-severe COPD (95% CI, 2-31%, P = 0.0021). Each SD log-transformed albuminuria increased hazards of incident COPD-related hospitalization/mortality by 26% (95% CI, 18-34%, P < 0.0001) among 14,213 participants followed for events. Asthma events were not significantly associated. Associations persisted in participants without current smoking, diabetes, hypertension, or cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Albuminuria was associated with greater lung function decline, incident spirometry-defined COPD, and incident COPD-related events in a U.S. population-based sample.

Declining Lung Function and Cardiovascular Risk: The ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary dysfunction predicts incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether longitudinal decline in lung function is associated with incident heart failure (HF), coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke. METHODS: Among 10,351 participants in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study free of CVD, rapid lung function decline was defined as the greatest quartile (n = 2,585) of decline in either forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) (>1.9% decline/year) or forced vital capacity (FVC) (>2.1% decline/year) over 2.9 ± 0.2 years. The relationship between rapid decline in FEV1 or FVC and subsequent incident HF, CHD, stroke, or a composite of these was assessed using multivariable Cox regression adjusting for the baseline spirometry value, demographics, height, body mass index, heart rate, diabetes, hypertension, low-density lipoprotein, use of lipid-lowering medication, N-terminal fragment of prohormone for B-type natriuretic peptide, and smoking. RESULTS: The mean age was 54 ± 6 years, 56% were women, and 81% were white. At 17 ± 6 years of follow-up, HF occurred in 14%, CHD 11%, stroke 6%, and the composite in 24%. Rapid decline in FEV1 and in FVC were both associated with a heightened risk of incident HF (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.17; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04 to 1.33; p = 0.010; and HR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.12 to 1.44; p < 0.001; respectively), with rapid decline in FEV1 most prognostic in the first year of follow-up (HR: 4.22; 95% CI: 1.34 to 13.26; p = 0.01). Rapid decline in FEV1 was also associated with incident stroke (HR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.50; p = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: A rapid decline in lung function, assessed by serial spirometry, is associated with a higher incidence of subsequent CVD, particularly incident HF.

Harmonization of Respiratory Data From 9 US Population-Based Cohorts: The NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study.

Chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRDs) are the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. To support investigations into CLRD risk determinants and new approaches to primary prevention, we aimed to harmonize and pool respiratory data from US general population-based cohorts. Data were obtained from prospective cohorts that performed prebronchodilator spirometry and were harmonized following 2005 ATS/ERS standards. In cohorts conducting follow-up for noncardiovascular events, CLRD events were defined as hospitalizations/deaths adjudicated as CLRD-related or assigned relevant administrative codes. Coding and variable names were applied uniformly. The pooled sample included 65,251 adults in 9 cohorts followed-up for CLRD-related mortality over 653,380 person-years during 1983-2016. Average baseline age was 52 years; 56% were female; 49% were never-smokers; and racial/ethnic composition was 44% white, 22% black, 28% Hispanic/Latino, and 5% American Indian. Over 96% had complete data on smoking, clinical CLRD diagnoses, and dyspnea. After excluding invalid spirometry examinations (13%), there were 105,696 valid examinations (median, 2 per participant). Of 29,351 participants followed for CLRD hospitalizations, median follow-up was 14 years; only 5% were lost to follow-up at 10 years. The NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study provides a harmonization standard applied to a large, US population-based sample that may be used to advance epidemiologic research on CLRD.

Hemoglobin, Albuminuria, and Kidney Function in Cardiovascular Risk: The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study.

BACKGROUND: Reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and elevated urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) individually increase risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We hypothesized that these associations are stronger among people with abnormal (both low and high) hemoglobin levels. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using 5801 participants with available hemoglobin measures of the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Community) study in 1996-1998, we explored the cross-sectional association of eGFR and ACR with hemoglobin levels and their longitudinal associations with CVD (heart failure, coronary heart disease, and stroke) risk through 2013. At baseline, 8.8% had anemia (<13 g/dL in men and <12 g/dL in women) and 7.2% had high hemoglobin (≥16 g/dL in men and ≥15 g/dL in women). The adjusted prevalence ratio of anemia was 2.12 (95% confidence interval, 1.59-2.82) for eGFR 30 to 59 compared with ≥90 mL/min per 1.73 m2 and 1.45 (1.07-1.95) for ACR ≥30 compared with <10 mg/g. ACR ≥30 mg/g was also associated with high hemoglobin (prevalence ratio, 1.57 [1.12-2.19] compared with <10 mg/g). During follow-up, there were 1069 incident CVDs among 5098 CVD-free participants at baseline. In multivariable Cox models, lower eGFR, higher ACR, and anemia were each independently associated with CVD risk, with the association of low eGFR being slightly stronger in anemia (P-for-interaction, 0.072). There was no hemoglobin-ACR interaction; however, when CVD subtypes were analyzed separately, risk of coronary heart disease and stroke associated with high ACR was slightly stronger in high hemoglobin (P-for-interaction, 0.074). CONCLUSIONS: Kidney function, albuminuria, and anemia were correlated and independently associated with CVD risk. Correlation and potential interaction for atherosclerotic CVD between albuminuria and high hemoglobin deserve further investigation.

Lung function decline over 25 years of follow-up among black and white adults in the ARIC study cohort.

BACKGROUND: Interpretation of longitudinal information about lung function decline from middle to older age has been limited by loss to follow-up that may be correlated with baseline lung function or the rate of decline. We conducted these analyses to estimate age-related decline in lung function across groups of race, sex, and smoking status while accounting for dropout from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. METHODS: We analyzed data from 13,896 black and white participants, aged 45-64 years at the 1987-1989 baseline clinical examination. Using spirometry data collected at baseline and two follow-up visits, we estimated annual population-averaged mean changes in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) by race, sex, and smoking status using inverse-probability-weighted independence estimating equations conditioning-on-being-alive. RESULTS: Estimated rates of FEV1 decline estimated using inverse-probability-weighted independence estimating equations conditioning on being alive were higher among white than black participants at age 45 years (e.g., male never smokers: black: -29.5 ml/year; white: -51.9 ml/year), but higher among black than white participants by age 75 (black: -51.2 ml/year; white: -26). Observed differences by race were more pronounced among men than among women. By smoking status, FEV1 declines were larger among current than former or never smokers at age 45 across all categories of race and sex. By age 60, FEV1 decline was larger among former and never than current smokers. Estimated annual declines generated using unweighted generalized estimating equations were smaller for current smokers at younger ages in all four groups of race and sex compared with results from weighted analyses that accounted for attrition. CONCLUSIONS: Using methods accounting for dropout from an approximately 25-year health study, estimated rates of lung function decline varied by age, race, sex, and smoking status, with largest declines observed among current smokers at younger ages.

Metabolomics and Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in African Americans: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia. Application of metabolomic approaches, which may identify novel pathways and biomarkers of disease risk, to a longitudinal epidemiologic study of AF has been limited. METHODS: We determined the prospective association of 118 serum metabolites identified through untargeted metabolomics profiling with the incidence of newly-diagnosed AF in 1919 African-American men and women from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study without AF at baseline (1987-1989). Incident AF cases through 2011 were ascertained from study electrocardiograms, hospital discharge codes, and death certificates. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 22 years, we identified 183 incident AF cases. In Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, smoking, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, prevalent heart failure, prevalent coronary heart disease, and kidney function, two conjugated bile acids (glycolithocholate sulfate and glycocholenate sulfate) were significantly associated with AF risk after correcting for multiple comparisons (p<0.0004). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of AF were 1.22 (1.12-1.32) for glycolithocholate sulfate and 1.22 (1.10-1.35) for glycocholenate sulfate per 1-standard deviation higher levels. Associations were not appreciably different after additional adjustment for alcohol consumption or concentrations of circulating albumin and liver enzymes. CONCLUSION: We found an association of higher levels of two bile acids with an increased risk of AF, pointing to a potential novel pathway in AF pathogenesis. Replication of results in independent studies is warranted.

Prevalence and Correlates of CKD in Hispanics/Latinos in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of ESRD among Hispanics/Latinos is 2-fold higher than in non-Hispanic whites. However, little is known about the prevalence of earlier stages of CKD among Hispanics/Latinos. This study estimated the prevalence of CKD in US Hispanics/Latinos. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: This was a cross-sectional study of 15,161 US Hispanic/Latino adults of Cuban, Dominican, Mexican, Puerto Rican, Central American, and South American backgrounds enrolled in the multicenter, prospective, population-based Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL). In addition, the prevalence of CKD in Hispanics/Latinos was compared with other racial/ethnic groups in the 2007-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Prevalent CKD was defined as an eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (estimated with the 2012 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration eGFR creatinine-cystatin C equation) or albuminuria based on sex-specific cut points determined at a single point in time. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of CKD among Hispanics/Latinos was 13.7%. Among women, the prevalence of CKD was 13.0%, and it was lowest in persons with South American background (7.4%) and highest (16.6%) in persons with Puerto Rican background. In men, the prevalence of CKD was 15.3%, and it was lowest (11.2%) in persons with South American background and highest in those who identified their Hispanic background as "other" (16.0%). The overall prevalence of CKD was similar in HCHS/SOL compared with non-Hispanic whites in NHANES. However, prevalence was higher in HCHS/SOL men and lower in HCHS/SOL women versus NHANES non-Hispanic whites. Low income, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease were each significantly associated with higher risk of CKD. CONCLUSIONS: Among US Hispanic/Latino adults, there was significant variation in CKD prevalence among Hispanic/Latino background groups, and CKD was associated with established cardiovascular risk factors.

Pre-morbid body mass index and mortality after incident heart failure: the ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Although obesity is an independent risk factor for heart failure (HF), once HF is established, obesity is associated with lower mortality. It is unclear if the weight loss due to advanced HF leads to this paradoxical finding. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the prognostic impact of pre-morbid obesity in patients with HF. METHODS: In the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study, we used body mass index (BMI) measured ≥6 months before incident HF (pre-morbid BMI) to evaluate the association of overweight (BMI 25 to <30 kg/m(2)) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m(2)) compared with normal BMI (18.5 to <25 kg/m(2)) with mortality after incident HF. RESULTS: Among 1,487 patients with incident HF, 35% were overweight and 47% were obese by pre-morbid BMI measured 4.3 ± 3.1 years before HF diagnosis. Over 10-year follow-up after incident HF, 43% of patients died. After adjustment for demographics and comorbidities, being pre-morbidly overweight (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.58 to 0.90; p = 0.004) or obese (HR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.56 to 0.87; p = 0.001) had a protective association with survival compared with normal BMI. The protective effect of overweight and obesity was consistent across subgroups on the basis of a history of cancer, smoking, and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Our results, for the first time, demonstrate that patients who were overweight or obese before HF development have lower mortality after HF diagnosis compared with normal BMI patients. Thus, weight loss due to advanced HF may not completely explain the protective effect of higher BMI in HF patients.

Sickle cell trait and incident ischemic stroke in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Numerous case reports describe stroke in individuals with sickle cell trait (SCT) in the absence of traditional risk factors for cerebrovascular disease. To date, no prospective epidemiological studies have investigated this association. METHODS: A population-based sample of blacks (n=3497; mean age=54 years; female=62%) was followed from 1987 to 2011 in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, contributing a total of 65 371 person-years. Hazard ratios and incidence rate differences for ischemic stroke were estimated, contrasting SCT to homozygous hemoglobin A. Models were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, total cholesterol, atrial fibrillation, and coronary heart disease. RESULTS: SCT was identified in 223 (6.4%) participants. During a median follow-up of 22 years, 401 subjects experienced incident stroke (89% ischemic). Incident ischemic stroke was more frequent among those with SCT (13%) than those with homozygous hemoglobin A (10%). SCT was associated with an ischemic stroke hazard ratio of 1.4 (1.0-2.0) and an incidence rate difference amounting to 1.9 (0.4-3.8) extra strokes per 1000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: We observed an increased risk of ischemic stroke in blacks with SCT. Further investigation of the incidence and pathophysiology of stroke in patients with SCT is warranted.

Systolic blood pressure levels among adults with hypertension and incident cardiovascular events: the atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

IMPORTANCE: Studies document a progressive increase in heart disease risk as systolic blood pressure (SBP) rises above 115 mm Hg, but it is unknown whether an SBP lower than 120 mm Hg among adults with hypertension (HTN) lowers heart failure, stroke, and myocardial infarction risk. OBJECTIVE: To examine the risk of incident cardiovascular (CV) events among adults with HTN according to 3 SBP levels: 140 mm Hg or higher; 120 to 139 mm Hg; and a reference level of lower than 120 mm Hg. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 4480 participants with HTN but without prevalent CV disease at baseline (years 1987-1989) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study were included. Measurements of SBP were taken at baseline and at 3 triennial visits; SBP was treated as a time-dependent variable and categorized as elevated (≥140 mm Hg), standard (120-139 mm Hg), and low (<120 mm Hg). Multivariable Cox regression models included baseline age, sex, diabetes status, BMI, high cholesterol level, smoking status, and alcohol intake. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident composite CV events (heart failure, ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or death related to coronary heart disease). RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 21.8 years, a total of 1622 incident CV events had occurred. Participants with elevated SBP developed incident CV events at a significantly higher rate than those in the low BP group (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.46; 95% CI, 1.26-1.69). However, there was no difference in incident CV event-free survival among those in the standard vs low SBP group (adjusted HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.85-1.17). Further adjustment for BP medication use or diastolic BP did not significantly affect the results. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among patients with HTN, having an elevated SBP carries the highest risk for cardiovascular events, but in this categorical analysis, once SBP was below 140 mm Hg, an SBP lower than 120 mm Hg did not appear to lessen the risk of incident CV events.

Airflow obstruction, lung function, and incidence of atrial fibrillation: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND: Reduced low forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) is reportedly associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). Extant reports do not provide separate estimates for never smokers or for blacks, who incongruously have lower AF incidence than whites. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined 15 004 middle-aged blacks and whites enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort study. Standardized spirometry data were collected at the baseline examination. Incident AF was identified from the first among the following: International Classification of Diseases codes for AF on hospital discharge records or death certificates or 12-lead ECGs performed during 3 triennial follow-up visits. Over an average follow-up of 17.5 years, a total of 1691 participants (11%) developed new-onset AF. The rate of incident AF was inversely associated with FEV1 in each of the 4 race and sex groups. After multivariable adjustment for traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors and height, hazard ratios of AF comparing the lowest with the highest quartile of FEV1 were 1.37 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.83) for white women, 1.49 (95% confidence interval, 1.16-1.91) for white men, 1.63 (95% confidence interval, 1.00-2.66) for black women, and 2.36 (95% confidence interval, 1.30-4.29) for black men. The above associations were observed across all smoking status categories. Moderate/severe airflow obstruction (FEV1/forced vital capacity <0.70 and FEV1 < 80% of predicted value) was also associated with higher AF incidence. CONCLUSIONS: In this large population-based study with a long-term follow-up, reduced FEV1 and obstructive respiratory disease were associated with a higher AF incidence after adjustment for measured confounders.

Trends in myocardial infarction rates and case fatality by anatomical location in four United States communities, 1987 to 2008 (from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study).

Although the incidence of and mortality after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is decreasing, time trends in anatomical location of STEMI and associated short-term prognosis have not been examined in a population-based community study. We determined 22-year trends in age- and race-adjusted gender-specific incidences and 28-day case fatality of hospitalized STEMI by anatomic infarct location among a stratified random sample of 35- to 74-year-old residents of 4 communities in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. STEMI infarct location was assessed by 12-lead electrocardiograms from the hospital record and was coded as anterior, inferior, lateral, and multilocation STEMIs using the Minnesota code. From 1987 to 2008, a total of 4,845 patients had an incident STEMI; 37.2% were inferior STEMI, 32.8% were anterior, 16.8% occurred in multiple infarct locations, and 13.2% were lateral STEMI. For inferior, anterior, and lateral STEMIs in both men and women, significant decreases were observed in the age-adjusted annual incidence and the associated 28-day case fatality. In contrast, for STEMI in multiple infarct locations, neither the annual incidence nor the 28-day case fatality changed over time. The age- and race-adjusted annual incidence and associated 28-day case fatality of STEMI in anterior, inferior, and lateral infarct locations decreased during 22 years of surveillance; however, no decrease was observed for STEMI in multiple infarct locations. In conclusion, our findings suggest that there is room for improvement in the care of patients with multilocation STEMI.

Replication and fine mapping of asthma-associated loci in individuals of African ancestry.

Asthma originates from genetic and environmental factors with about half the risk of disease attributable to heritable causes. Genome-wide association studies, mostly in populations of European ancestry, have identified numerous asthma-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Studies in populations with diverse ancestries allow both for identification of robust associations that replicate across ethnic groups and for improved resolution of associated loci due to different patterns of linkage disequilibrium between ethnic groups. Here we report on an analysis of 745 African-American subjects with asthma and 3,238 African-American control subjects from the Candidate Gene Association Resource (CARe) Consortium, including analysis of SNPs imputed using 1,000 Genomes reference panels and adjustment for local ancestry. We show strong evidence that variation near RAD50/IL13, implicated in studies of European ancestry individuals, replicates in individuals largely of African ancestry. Fine mapping in African ancestry populations also refined the variants of interest for this association. We also provide strong or nominal evidence of replication at loci near ORMDL3/GSDMB, IL1RL1/IL18R1, and 10p14, all previously associated with asthma in European or Japanese populations, but not at the PYHIN1 locus previously reported in studies of African-American samples. These results improve the understanding of asthma genetics and further demonstrate the utility of genetic studies in populations other than those of largely European ancestry.

Relation of serum phosphorus levels to the incidence of atrial fibrillation (from the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities [ARIC] study).

High serum phosphorus levels have been linked with vascular calcification and greater cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We assessed whether serum phosphorus was associated with the atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence in a large community-based cohort in the United States. Our analysis included 14,675 participants (25% black, 45% men) free of AF at baseline (1987 to 1989) and with measurements of fasting serum phosphorus from the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) study. The incidence of AF was ascertained through the end of 2008 from study visit electrocardiograms, hospitalizations, and death certificates. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios of AF by the serum phosphorus levels, adjusting for potential confounders. During a median follow-up of 19.7 years, we identified 1,656 incident AF cases. Greater serum phosphorus was associated with a greater AF risk: the hazard ratio of AF with a 1-mg/dl increase in serum phosphorus was 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.26). No significant interaction was seen by race (p = 0.88) or gender (p = 0.51). The risk of AF was increased in association with greater serum phosphorus in those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of ≥90 ml/min/1.72 m(2) but not among those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of <90 ml/min/1.72 m(2). The total corrected calcium levels were not related to AF risk; however, greater levels of the calcium-phosphorus product were associated with greater AF risk. In conclusion, in the present large population-based study, greater levels of serum phosphorus and the related calcium-phosphorus product were associated with a greater incidence of AF.

The population burden of heart failure attributable to modifiable risk factors: the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to estimate the population burden of heart failure and the influence of modifiable risk factors. BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a common, costly, and fatal disorder, yet few studies have evaluated the population-level influence of modifiable risk factors. METHODS: From 14,709 ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study participants, we estimated incidence rate differences (IRD) for the association between 5 modifiable risk factors (cigarette smoking, diabetes, elevated low-density lipoproteins, hypertension, and obesity) and heart failure. Potential impact fractions were used to measure expected changes in the heart failure incidence assuming achievement of a 5% proportional decrement in the prevalence of each risk factor. RESULTS: Over an average of 17.6 years of follow-up, 1 in 3 African American and 1 in 4 Caucasian participants were hospitalized with heart failure, defined as the first hospitalization with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision discharge codes of 428.x. Of the 5 modifiable risk factors, the largest IRD was observed for diabetes, which was associated with 1,058 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 787 to 1,329) and 660 (95% CI: 514 to 805) incident hospitalizations of heart failure/100,000 person-years among African-American and Caucasian participants, respectively. A 5% proportional reduction in the prevalence of diabetes would result in approximately 53 and 33 fewer incident heart failure hospitalizations per 100,000 person-years in African-American and Caucasian ARIC participants, respectively. When applied to U.S. populations, this reduction may prevent approximately 30,000 incident cases of heart failure annually. CONCLUSIONS: Modest decrements in the prevalence of modifiable heart failure risk factors such as diabetes may substantially decrease the incidence of this major disease.