Towards Treatment Effect Interpretability: A Bayesian Re-analysis of 194,129 Patient Outcomes Across 230 Oncology Trials.

Most oncology trials define superiority of an experimental therapy compared to a control therapy according to frequentist significance thresholds, which are widely misinterpreted. Posterior probability distributions computed by Bayesian inference may be more intuitive measures of uncertainty, particularly for measures of clinical benefit such as the minimum clinically important difference (MCID). Here, we manually reconstructed 194,129 individual patient-level outcomes across 230 phase III, superiority-design, oncology trials. Posteriors were calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling using standard priors. All trials interpreted as positive had probabilities > 90% for marginal benefits (HR < 1). However, 38% of positive trials had ≤ 90% probabilities of achieving the MCID (HR < 0.8), even under an enthusiastic prior. A subgroup analysis of 82 trials that led to regulatory approval showed 30% had ≤ 90% probability for meeting the MCID under an enthusiastic prior. Conversely, 24% of negative trials had > 90% probability of achieving marginal benefits, even under a skeptical prior, including 12 trials with a primary endpoint of overall survival. Lastly, a phase III oncology-specific prior from a previous work, which uses published summary statistics rather than reconstructed data to compute posteriors, validated the individual patient-level data findings. Taken together, these results suggest that Bayesian models add considerable unique interpretative value to phase III oncology trials and provide a robust solution for overcoming the discrepancies between refuting the null hypothesis and obtaining a MCID.

Proportional Hazards Violations in Phase 3 Cancer Clinical Trials: A Potential Source of Trial Misinterpretation.

BACKGROUND: Survival analyses of novel agents with long-term responders often exhibit differential hazard rates over time. Such proportional hazards violations (PHVs) may reduce the power of the log-rank test and lead to misinterpretation of trial results. We aimed to characterize the incidence and study attributes associated with PHVs in phase 3 oncology trials and assess the utility of restricted mean survival time (RMST) and MaxCombo as additional analyses. METHODS: Clinicaltrials.gov and PubMed were searched to identify 2-arm, randomized, phase 3 superiority-design cancer trials with time-to-event primary endpoints and published results through 2020. Patient-level data were reconstructed from published Kaplan-Meier curves. PHVs were assessed using Schoenfeld residuals. RESULTS: Three hundred fifty-seven Kaplan-Meier comparisons across 341 trials were analyzed, encompassing 292,831 enrolled patients. PHVs were identified in 85/357 (23.8%; 95%CI 19.7%, 28.5%) comparisons. In multivariable analysis, non-OS endpoints (odds ratio [OR] 2.16 [95%CI 1.21, 3.87]; P=.009) were associated with higher odds of PHVs, and immunotherapy comparisons (OR 1.94 [95%CI 0.98, 3.86]; P=.058) were weakly suggestive of higher odds of PHVs. Few trials with PHVs (25/85, 29.4%) pre-specified a statistical plan to account for PHVs. Fourteen trials with PHVs exhibited discordant statistical signals with RMST or MaxCombo, of which ten (71%) reported negative results. CONCLUSION: PHVs are common across therapy types, and attempts to account for PHVs in statistical design are lacking despite the potential for results exhibiting non-proportional hazards to be misinterpreted.

Improving the clinical meaning of surrogate endpoints: An empirical assessment of clinical progression in phase III oncology trials.

Disease progression in clinical trials is commonly defined by radiologic measures. However, clinical progression may be more meaningful to patients, may occur even when radiologic criteria for progression are not met, and often requires a change in therapy in clinical practice. The objective of this study was to determine the utilization of clinical progression criteria within progression-based trial endpoints among phase III trials testing systemic therapies for metastatic solid tumors. The primary manuscripts and protocols of phase III trials were reviewed for whether clinical events, such as refractory pain, tumor bleeding, or neurologic compromise, could constitute a progression event. Univariable logistic regression computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI for associations between trial-level covariates and clinical progression. A total of 216 trials enrolling 148,190 patients were included, with publication dates from 2006 through 2020. A major change in clinical status was included in the progression criteria of 13% of trials (n = 27), most commonly as a secondary endpoint (n = 22). Only 59% of trials (n = 16) reported distinct clinical progression outcomes that constituted the composite surrogate endpoint. Compared with other disease sites, genitourinary trials were more likely to include clinical progression definitions (16/33 [48%] vs. 11/183 [6%]; OR, 14.72; 95% CI, 5.99 to 37.84; p < .0001). While major tumor-related clinical events were seldom considered as disease progression events, increased attention to clinical progression may improve the meaningfulness and clinical applicability of surrogate endpoints for patients with metastatic solid tumors.

Addition of Metastasis-Directed Therapy to Systemic Therapy for Oligometastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (EXTEND): A Multicenter, Randomized Phase II Trial.

PURPOSE: The EXTEND trial tested the hypothesis that adding comprehensive metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) to chemotherapy would improve progression-free survival (PFS) over chemotherapy alone among patients with oligometastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). METHODS: EXTEND (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03599765) is a multicenter, phase II basket trial randomly assigning patients with ≤five metastases 1:1 to MDT plus systemic therapy versus systemic therapy. Disease progression was defined by radiologic criteria (RECIST v1.1), clinical progression, or death. The primary end point was PFS in the per-protocol population, evaluated after all patients achieved at least 6 months of follow-up. Exploratory end points included systemic immune response measures. RESULTS: Between March 19, 2019, and February 13, 2023, 41 patients were randomly assigned and 40 were eligible for the primary analysis of PFS (19 patients in the MDT arm; 21 patients in the control arm). At a median follow-up time of 17 months, the median PFS time was 10.3 months (95% CI, 4.6 to 14.0) in the MDT arm versus 2.5 months (95% CI, 1.7 to 5.1) in the control arm. PFS was significantly improved by the addition of MDT to systemic therapy (P = .030 for stratified log-rank test) with a hazard ratio of 0.43 (95% CI, 0.20 to 0.94). No grade ≥3 or greater adverse events related to MDT were observed. Systemic immune activation events were associated with MDT and correlated with improved PFS. CONCLUSION: This study supports the addition of MDT to systemic therapy for patients with oligometastatic PDAC. Induction of systemic immunity is a possible mechanism of benefit. These results warrant confirmatory trials to refine treatment strategy and provide external validation.

Secondary endpoint utilization and publication rate among phase III oncology trials.

Secondary endpoints (SEPs) provide crucial information in the interpretation of clinical trials, but their features are not yet well understood. Thus, we sought to empirically characterize the scope and publication rate of SEPs among late-phase oncology trials. We assessed SEPs for each randomized, published phase III oncology trial across all publications and ClinicalTrials.gov, performing logistic regressions to evaluate associations between trial characteristics and SEP publication rates. After screening, a total of 280 trials enrolling 244,576 patients and containing 2,562 SEPs met inclusion criteria. Only 22% of trials (62/280) listed all SEPs consistently between ClinicalTrials.gov and the trial protocol. The absolute number of SEPs per trial increased over time, and trials sponsored by industry had a greater number of SEPs (median 9 vs 5 SEPs per trial, P < 0.0001). In total, 69% of SEPs (1770/2562) were published. The publication rate significantly varied by SEP category Χ2(5, N = 2562) = 245.86, p < 0.001. SEPs that place the greatest burden on patients, patient-reported outcomes and translational correlatives, were published at 63% (246/393) and 44% (39/88) respectively. Trials with more SEPs were associated with lower publication rates. Overall, our findings are that SEP publication rates in late-phase oncology trials are highly variable based on type of SEP. To avoid undue burden on patients and promote transparency of findings, trialists should weigh the biologic and clinical relevance of each SEP with its feasibility at the time of trial design.

Clinical and molecular characteristics of patients with brain metastasis secondary to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is poor. Secondary brain metastasis (Br-M) occurs in less than 1% of patients. Clinical characteristics and molecular alterations have not been characterized in this rare patients' subset. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Foundry software platform was used to retrospectively query electronic health records for patients with Br-M secondary to PDAC from 2005 to 2023; clinical, molecular, and overall survival (OS) data were analyzed. RESULTS: Br-M was diagnosed in 44 patients with PDAC. Median follow-up was 78 months; median OS from initial PDAC diagnosis was 47 months. Median duration from PDAC diagnosis to Br-M detection was 24 months; median OS from Br-M diagnosis was 3 months. At Br-M diagnosis, 82% (n = 36) of patients had elevated CA19-9. Lung was the most common preexisting metastatic location (71%) with Br-M, followed by liver (66%). Br-M were most frequently observed in the frontal lobe (34%, n = 15), cerebellar region (23%, n = 10), and leptomeninges (18%, n = 8). KRAS mutations were detected in 94.1% (n = 16) of patients who had molecular data available (n = 17) with KRASG12V being the most frequent subtype 47% (n = 8); KRASG12D in 29% (n = 5); KRASG12R in 18% (n = 3). Patients who underwent Br-M surgical resection (n = 5) had median OS of 8.6 months, while median OS following stereotactic radiosurgery only (n = 11) or whole-brain radiation only (n = 20) was 3.3 and 2.8 months, respectively. CONCLUSION: Br-M is a late PDAC complication, resulting in an extremely poor prognosis especially in leptomeningeal disease. KRAS was mutated in 94.1% of the patients and the KRASG12V subtype was prevalent.

Bayesian Interim Analysis and Efficiency of Phase III Randomized Trials.

IMPORTANCE: Improving the efficiency of interim assessments in phase III trials should reduce trial costs, hasten the approval of efficacious therapies, and mitigate patient exposure to disadvantageous randomizations. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that in silico Bayesian early stopping rules improve the efficiency of phase III trials compared with the original frequentist analysis without compromising overall interpretation. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis. SETTING: 230 randomized phase III oncology trials enrolling 184,752 participants. PARTICIPANTS: Individual patient-level data were manually reconstructed from primary endpoint Kaplan-Meier curves. INTERVENTIONS: Trial accruals were simulated 100 times per trial and leveraged published patient outcomes such that only the accrual dynamics, and not the patient outcomes, were randomly varied. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Early stopping was triggered per simulation if interim analysis demonstrated ≥ 85% probability of minimum clinically important difference/3 for efficacy or futility. Trial-level early closure was defined by stopping frequencies ≥ 0.75. RESULTS: A total of 12,451 simulations (54%) met early stopping criteria. Trial-level early stopping frequency was highly predictive of the published outcome (OR, 7.24; posterior probability of association, >99.99%; AUC, 0.91; P < 0.0001). Trial-level early closure was recommended for 82 trials (36%), including 62 trials (76%) which had performed frequentist interim analysis. Bayesian early stopping rules were 96% sensitive (95% CI, 91% to 98%) for detecting trials with a primary endpoint difference, and there was a high level of agreement in overall trial interpretation (Bayesian Cohen's κ, 0.95; 95% CrI, 0.92 to 0.99). However, Bayesian interim analysis was associated with >99.99% posterior probability of reducing patient enrollment requirements ( P < 0.0001), with an estimated cumulative enrollment reduction of 20,543 patients (11%; 89 patients averaged equally over all studied trials) and an estimated cumulative cost savings of 851 million USD (3.7 million USD averaged equally over all studied trials). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Bayesian interim analyses may improve randomized trial efficiency by reducing enrollment requirements without compromising trial interpretation. Increased utilization of Bayesian interim analysis has the potential to reduce costs of late-phase trials, reduce patient exposures to ineffective therapies, and accelerate approvals of effective therapies. KEY POINTS: Question: What are the effects of Bayesian early stopping rules on the efficiency of phase III randomized oncology trials?Findings: Individual-patient level outcomes were reconstructed for 184,752 patients from 230 trials. Compared with the original interim analysis strategy, in silico Bayesian interim analysis reduced patient enrollment requirements and preserved the original trial interpretation. Meaning: Bayesian interim analysis may improve the efficiency of conducting randomized trials, leading to reduced costs, reduced exposure of patients to disadvantageous treatments, and accelerated approval of efficacious therapies.

Disease Site Specialization in the Academic Radiation Oncology Workforce: Evidence of Gender Differences.

PURPOSE: Because some stakeholders within medicine seek to diversify and attain greater workforce equity, it is critical to understand gender-based divisions within specialization. Radiation oncology (RO) has one of the smallest proportions of women representation of all specialties, and to our knowledge, no prior studies have investigated gender differences in all the disease site specializations within RO. Thus, we analyzed the relationship between gender and disease site(s) treated in academic RO (ARO). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Faculty gender and disease site(s) treated by faculty from ARO departments were collected via publicly available department websites in January 2020. X2 analyses were conducted to assess differences between the proportions of women faculty treating each disease site. RESULTS: Of 1337 ARO faculty, 408 (30.5%) were identified as women. Breast, gynecology, and pediatrics had the largest proportions of women faculty (all >40%; P < .001). A majority (53%; P < .001) of women ARO faculty treated breast. Genitourinary, thoracic, and head and neck had the smallest proportions of women faculty (all <25%; P < .001). Women ARO faculty were twice as likely to treat breast and gynecologic malignancies compared with men faculty (risk ratio [RR] with 95% CI, 2.01 [1.75-2.50]; P < .001 and RR [95% CI], 2.06 [1.72-2.79]; P <.001, respectively). Men ARO faculty were 3 times more likely to treat genitourinary cancer compared with women faculty (RR [95% CI], 0.40 [0.34-0.48]; P < .001). There was no difference in the mean number of disease sites treated between women and men ARO faculty (2.63 vs 2.53; P = .29). CONCLUSIONS: Gender differences in disease site specialization were observed in ARO. Future research into the drivers of disease site selection should be explored.

Escalated-dose radiotherapy for unresected locally advanced pancreatic cancer: Patterns of care and survival in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: With locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC), uncontrolled local tumor growth frequently leads to mortality. Advancements in radiotherapy (RT) techniques have enabled conformal delivery of escalated-dose RT (EDR), which may have potential local control and overall survival (OS) benefits based on retrospective and early prospective studies. With evidence for EDR emerging, we characterized the adoption of EDR across the United States and its associated outcomes. METHODS: We searched the National Cancer Database for nonsurgically managed LAPC patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2019. Pancreas-directed RT with biologically effective doses (BED10) ≥39 and ≤70 Gy was labeled conventional-dose RT (CDR), and BED10 >70 and ≤132 Gy was labeled EDR. We identified associations of EDR and OS using logistic and Cox regressions, respectively. RESULTS: Among the definitive therapy subset (n = 54,115) of the entire study cohort (n = 91,493), the most common treatments were chemotherapy alone (69%), chemotherapy and radiation (29%), and RT alone (2%). For the radiation therapy subset (n = 16,978), use of pancreas-directed RT remained between 13% and 17% over the study period (ptrend > 0.999). Using multivariable logistic regression, treatment at an academic/research facility (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.46, p < 0.001) and treatment between 2016 and 2019 (aOR 2.54, p < 0.001) were associated with greater receipt of EDR, whereas use of chemotherapy (aOR 0.60, p < 0.001) was associated with less receipt. Median OS estimates for EDR and CDR were 14.5 months and 13.0 months (p < 0.0001), respectively. For radiation therapy subset patients with available survival data (n = 13,579), multivariable Cox regression correlated EDR (adjusted hazard ratio 0.85, 95% confidence interval 0.80-0.91; p < 0.001) with longer OS versus CDR. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Utilization of EDR has increased since 2016, but overall utilization of RT for LAPC has remained at less than one in five patients for almost two decades. These real-world results additionally provide an estimate of effect size of EDR for future prospective trials.

Lost in the plot: missing visual elements in Kaplan-Meier plots of phase III oncology trials.

Missing visual elements (MVE) in Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves can misrepresent data, preclude curve reconstruction, and hamper transparency. This study evaluated KM plots of phase III oncology trials. MVE were defined as an incomplete y-axis range or missing number at risk table in a KM curve. Surrogate endpoint KM curves were additionally evaluated for complete interpretability, defined by (1) reporting the number of censored patients and (2) correspondence of the disease assessment interval with the number at risk interval. Among 641 trials enrolling 518 235 patients, 116 trials (18%) had MVE in KM curves. Industry sponsorship, larger trials, and more recently published trials were correlated with lower odds of MVE. Only 3% of trials (15 of 574) published surrogate endpoint KM plots with complete interpretability. Improvements in the quality of KM curves of phase III oncology trials, particularly for surrogate endpoints, are needed for greater interpretability, reproducibility, and transparency in oncology research.

Race and Ethnicity Representation in Phase 2/3 Oncology Clinical Trial Publications: A Systematic Review.

Importance: The five 1997 Office of Management and Budget races in the US include American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Black or African American, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, and White, with Hispanic ethnicity. Despite the Affordable Care Act mandating Office of Management and Budget-based collecting and reporting standards, race and ethnicity publishing in medical journals is inconsistent, despite being necessary to achieve health equity. Objective: To quantify race and ethnicity reporting rates and calculate representation quotients (RQs) in published oncology clinical trials. Evidence Review: In this systematic review, PubMed and Embase were queried for phase 2/3 clinical trials of the 6 most common noncutaneous solid cancers, published between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2022, in 4 high-impact journals. Trial characteristics were recorded. The RQs for each race and ethnicity were calculated by dividing the percent of representation in each clinical trial publication by the percent of year-matched, site-specific incident cancers in the US, compared with Kruskal-Wallis tests with Bonferroni correction (BC). Reporting was compared between journal publications and ClinicalTrials.gov. Findings: Among 1202 publications evaluated, 364 met inclusion criteria: 16 JAMA, 241 Journal of Clinical Oncology, 19 Lancet, and 88 New England Journal of Medicine. Publications included 268 209 patients (171 132 women [64%]), with a median of 356 (IQR, 131-800) patients per publication. Reported race and ethnicity included American Indian or Alaska Native in 52 (14%) publications, Asian in 196 (54%), Black or African American in 215 (59%), Hispanic in 67 (18%), Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander in 28 (8%), and White in 254 (70%). Median RQ varied across race (P < .001 BC), with 1.04 (IQR, 0.09-4.77) for Asian, 0.98 (IQR, 0.86-1.06) for White, 0.42 (IQR, 0.12-0.75) for Black or African American, and 0.00 (IQR, 0.00-0.00) for both American Indian or Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander patients. Sensitivity analyses showed similar findings on subset analysis for US-only clinical trials. There was significantly less race and ethnicity reporting in the clinical trial publications compared with ClinicalTrials.gov documentation for American Indian or Alaska Native (14% vs 45%; P < .001 per McNemar χ2 test with continuity correction [MC]) and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander (8% vs 43%; P < .001 MC). Conclusions and Relevance: While most phase 2/3 oncology clinical trials published in high-impact journals report race and ethnicity, most did not report American Indian or Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander racial categories. Our findings support a call to action for consistent journal policies and transparent race and ethnicity reporting, in alignment with Affordable Care Act-concordant race and ethnicity federal reporting requirements.

Phase I trial of single-photon emission computed tomography-guided liver-directed radiotherapy for patients with low functional liver volume.

BACKGROUND: Traditional constraints specify that 700 cc of liver should be spared a hepatotoxic dose when delivering liver-directed radiotherapy to reduce the risk of inducing liver failure. We investigated the role of single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) to identify and preferentially avoid functional liver during liver-directed radiation treatment planning in patients with preserved liver function but limited functional liver volume after receiving prior hepatotoxic chemotherapy or surgical resection. METHODS: This phase I trial with a 3 + 3 design evaluated the safety of liver-directed radiotherapy using escalating functional liver radiation dose constraints in patients with liver metastases. Dose-limiting toxicities were assessed 6-8 weeks and 6 months after completing radiotherapy. RESULTS: All 12 patients had colorectal liver metastases and received prior hepatotoxic chemotherapy; 8 patients underwent prior liver resection. Median computed tomography anatomical nontumor liver volume was 1584 cc (range = 764-2699 cc). Median SPECT functional liver volume was 1117 cc (range = 570-1928 cc). Median nontarget computed tomography and SPECT liver volumes below the volumetric dose constraint were 997 cc (range = 544-1576 cc) and 684 cc (range = 429-1244 cc), respectively. The prescription dose was 67.5-75 Gy in 15 fractions or 75-100 Gy in 25 fractions. No dose-limiting toxicities were observed during follow-up. One-year in-field control was 57%. One-year overall survival was 73%. CONCLUSION: Liver-directed radiotherapy can be safely delivered to high doses when incorporating functional SPECT into the radiation treatment planning process, which may enable sparing of lower volumes of liver than traditionally accepted in patients with preserved liver function. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02626312.

Assessing the effect of metastasis-directed therapy in oligometastatic disease using the restricted mean survival time.

BACKGROUND: Metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) is emerging as an effective therapeutic option for oligometastatic disease (OMD). However, a lack of phase III data, consensus guidelines, and toxicity concerns limit its widespread use. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) routinely report hazard ratios (HRs) and medians that lack clear clinical and robust interpretation. Restricted-mean survival time (RMST) is the duration of time a patient is expected to survive over the follow-up period, providing a robust and interpretable alternative. We analyzed the efficacy of SBRT using RMST. METHODS: All registered RCTs of ablative radiotherapy in OMD in ClinicalTrials.gov through 2022 were identified. Data were reconstructed from Kaplan-Meier curves, and the HRs and RMST differences were estimated for surrogate endpoints (SEs) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Six studies comprising 426 patients met the inclusion criteria. The RMST differences for SEs ranged from 4.6 months in a study by Iyengar et al. to 11.1 months in SABR-COMET. The RMST differences for OS in SABR-COMET, Gomez et al., and SINDAS studies were 12.6, 15 and 7.9 months, respectively. CONCLUSION: RMST demonstrates the efficacy of local treatment in OMD. Representing the expected survival time, this method effectively communicates outcomes to patients and clinicians.

Differential Treatment Effects of Subgroup Analyses in Phase 3 Oncology Trials From 2004 to 2020.

Importance: Subgroup analyses are often performed in oncology to investigate differential treatment effects and may even constitute the basis for regulatory approvals. Current understanding of the features, results, and quality of subgroup analyses is limited. Objective: To evaluate forest plot interpretability and credibility of differential treatment effect claims among oncology trials. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study included randomized phase 3 clinical oncology trials published prior to 2021. Trials were screened from ClinicalTrials.gov. Main Outcomes and Measures: Missing visual elements in forest plots were defined as a missing point estimate or use of a linear x-axis scale for hazard and odds ratios. Multiplicity of testing control was recorded. Differential treatment effect claims were rated using the Instrument for Assessing the Credibility of Effect Modification Analyses. Linear and logistic regressions evaluated associations with outcomes. Results: Among 785 trials, 379 studies (48%) enrolling 331 653 patients reported a subgroup analysis. The forest plots of 43% of trials (156 of 363) were missing visual elements impeding interpretability. While 4148 subgroup effects were evaluated, only 1 trial (0.3%) controlled for multiple testing. On average, trials that did not meet the primary end point conducted 2 more subgroup effect tests compared with trials meeting the primary end point (95% CI, 0.59-3.43 tests; P = .006). A total of 101 differential treatment effects were claimed across 15% of trials (55 of 379). Interaction testing was missing in 53% of trials (29 of 55) claiming differential treatment effects. Trials not meeting the primary end point were associated with greater odds of no interaction testing (odds ratio, 4.47; 95% CI, 1.42-15.55, P = .01). The credibility of differential treatment effect claims was rated as low or very low in 93% of cases (94 of 101). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of phase 3 oncology trials, nearly half of trials presented a subgroup analysis in their primary publication. However, forest plots of these subgroup analyses largely lacked essential features for interpretation, and most differential treatment effect claims were not supported. Oncology subgroup analyses should be interpreted with caution, and improvements to the quality of subgroup analyses are needed.

Long-Term Patient-Reported Dyspareunia After Definitive Chemoradiation for Anal Cancer: Using the Anterior Vaginal Wall as an Organ-at-Risk to Define an Actionable Dosimetric Goal.

Purpose: Chemoradiation therapy (CRT) is the standard treatment for squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA). This study aimed to investigate the relationship between vaginal dosimetry and long-term patient-reported dyspareunia after treatment. We further aimed to use the anterior vaginal wall (AVW) as an organ at risk to define an actionable dosimetric clinical goal to decrease the risk of patient-reported dyspareunia. Methods and Materials: Women with SCCA treated with intensity modulated radiation therapy-based CRT were surveyed at least 2 years after successfully completing therapy. A Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI) pain subscore ≤4 was used to define dyspareunia. Dosimetric parameters were calculated for both the full vaginal canal and AVW. Multivariable linear regression models were created to identify predictors of FSFI pain subscore using backward selection to identify final variables include in the models. An actionable dosimetric predictor for dyspareunia was established using the Youden index method for cutoff optimization. Results: Of 184 women who were contacted, 90 (49%) returned completed surveys. Of those who completed surveys, 51 (56.7%) reported being sexually active, and 47 had dosimetric data available for review. Of sexually active respondents, 32 (68%) had an FSFI pain subscore ≤4. Multiple regression models were generated using the full vaginal canal and AVW as organs at risk, and both models showed similar predictive relationships with volumetric dose parameters emerging as the best dosimetric predictors for dysparenuia. Age over 65 years was also associated with higher FSFI pain subscores (eg, less pain with intercourse) in both models. AVW V35 Gy < 60% was identified as the optimal cutoff to reduce the risk of patient-reported dyspareunia. Conclusions: Increased dose to the vaginal canal is significantly associated with worse patient-reported dyspareunia following CRT for SCCA. Minimizing dose to the AVW to V35 Gy < 60% may reduce the risk of this quality of life-limiting toxicity. Further prospective evaluation is needed to validate these findings.

Association of differential censoring with survival and suboptimal control arms among oncology clinical trials.

Differential censoring, which refers to censoring imbalance between treatment arms, may bias the interpretation of survival outcomes in clinical trials. In 146 phase III oncology trials with statistically significant time-to-event surrogate primary endpoints, we evaluated the association between differential censoring in the surrogate primary endpoints, control arm adequacy, and the subsequent statistical significance of overall survival results. Twenty-four (16%) trials exhibited differential censoring that favored the control arm, whereas 15 (10%) exhibited differential censoring that favored the experimental arm. Positive overall survival was more common in control arm differential censoring trials (63%) than in trials without differential censoring (37%) or with experimental arm differential censoring (47%; odds ratio = 2.64, 95% confidence interval = 1.10 to 7.20; P = .04). Control arm differential censoring trials more frequently used suboptimal control arms at 46% compared with 20% without differential censoring and 13% with experimental arm differential censoring (odds ratio = 3.60, 95% confidence interval = 1.29 to 10.0; P = .007). The presence of control arm differential censoring in trials with surrogate primary endpoints, especially in those with overall survival conversion, may indicate an inadequate control arm and should be examined and explained.

Automatic end-to-end VMAT treatment planning for rectal cancers.

BACKGROUND: The treatment planning process from segmentation to producing a deliverable plan is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Existing solutions automate the segmentation and planning processes individually. The feasibility of combining auto-segmentation and auto-planning for volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) for rectal cancers in an end-to-end process is not clear. PURPOSE: To create and clinically evaluate a complete end-to-end process for auto-segmentation and auto-planning of VMAT for rectal cancer requiring only the gross tumor volume contour and a CT scan as inputs. METHODS: Patient scans and data were retrospectively selected from our institutional records for patients treated for malignant neoplasm of the rectum. We trained, validated, and tested deep learning auto-segmentation models using nnU-Net architecture for clinical target volume (CTV), bowel bag, large bowel, small bowel, total bowel, femurs, bladder, bone marrow, and female and male genitalia. For the CTV, we identified 174 patients with clinically drawn CTVs. We used data for 18 patients for all structures other than the CTV. The structures were contoured under the guidance of and reviewed by a gastrointestinal (GI) radiation oncologist. The predicted results for CTV in 35 patients and organs at risk (OAR) in six patients were scored by the GI radiation oncologist using a five-point Likert scale. For auto-planning, a RapidPlan knowledge-based planning solution was modeled for VMAT delivery with a prescription of 25 Gy in five fractions. The model was trained and tested on 20 and 34 patients, respectively. The resulting plans were scored by two GI radiation oncologists using a five-point Likert scale. Finally, the end-to-end pipeline was evaluated on 16 patients, and the resulting plans were scored by two GI radiation oncologists. RESULTS: In 31 of 35 patients, CTV contours were clinically acceptable without necessary modifications. The CTV achieved a Dice similarity coefficient of 0.85 (±0.05) and 95% Hausdorff distance of 15.25 (±5.59) mm. All OAR contours were clinically acceptable without edits, except for large and small bowel which were challenging to differentiate. However, contours for total, large, and small bowel were clinically acceptable. The two physicians accepted 100% and 91% of the auto-plans. For the end-to-end pipeline, the two physicians accepted 88% and 62% of the auto-plans. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that the VMAT treatment planning technique for rectal cancer can be automated to generate clinically acceptable and safe plans with minimal human interventions.

Implementation and Efficacy of a Large-Scale Radiation Oncology Case-Based Peer-Review Quality Program across a Multinational Cancer Network.

PURPOSE: With expansion of academic cancer center networks across geographically-dispersed sites, ensuring high-quality delivery of care across all network affiliates is essential. We report on the characteristics and efficacy of a radiation oncology peer-review quality assurance (QA) system implemented across a large-scale multinational cancer network. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Since 2014, weekly case-based peer-review QA meetings have been standard for network radiation oncologists with radiation oncology faculty at a major academic center. This radiotherapy (RT) QA program involves pre-treatment peer-review of cases by disease site, with disease-site subspecialized main campus faculty members. This virtual QA platform involves direct review of the proposed RT plan as well as supporting data, including relevant pathology and imaging studies for each patient. Network RT plans were scored as being concordant or nonconcordant based on national guidelines, institutional recommendations, and/or expert judgment when considering individual patient-specific factors for a given case. Data from January 1, 2014, through December 31, 2019, were aggregated for analysis. RESULTS: Between 2014 and 2019, across 8 network centers, a total of 16,601 RT plans underwent peer-review. The network-based peer-review case volume increased over the study period, from 958 cases in 2014 to 4,487 in 2019. A combined global nonconcordance rate of 4.5% was noted, with the highest nonconcordance rates among head-and-neck cases (11.0%). For centers that joined the network during the study period, we observed a significant decrease in the nonconcordance rate over time (3.1% average annual decrease in nonconcordance, P = 0.01); among centers that joined the network prior to the study period, nonconcordance rates remained stable over time. CONCLUSIONS: Through a standardized QA platform, network-based multinational peer-review of RT plans can be achieved. Improved concordance rates among newly added network affiliates over time are noted, suggesting a positive impact of network membership on the quality of delivered cancer care.

Salvage Treatment of Recurrent or Persistent Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: The Role of Multi-modality Therapy.

BACKGROUND: The standard treatment for recurrent or persistent anal squamous cell carcinoma is surgical salvage, but disease control and survival are suboptimal. PATIENTS/METHODS: Patients treated for recurrent or persistent anal squamous cell carcinoma at our institution from 2002 to 2022 were included. Patients were classified by type of salvage treatment received: surgery alone vs. reirradiation followed by surgery and by whether they received intraoperative radiation at the time of surgery. Clinical and pathologic variables were collected and assessed for association with risk of second local recurrence and death from any cause. RESULTS: Sixty four patients were included; 55(85.9%) were treated with surgery alone and 9 (14.1%) were treated with reirradiation followed by surgery. Median (IQR) follow up from the time of salvage treatment was 40.0 (20.3-68.0) months. The 3-year cumulative incidence of second local recurrence (95% CI) after salvage surgery was 36% (24%-48%); 39% (26%-52%) for patients treated with surgery alone and 15% (0.46%-51%) for patients treated with reirradiation followed by surgery. Factors associated with increased second local recurrence after salvage surgery included a locoregional recurrence, lymphovascular space invasion and positive surgical margins. The 3-year overall survival (95% CI) after salvage surgery was 70% (59%-83%); 68% (7%-56%) after surgery alone and 89% (10.5%-70.6%) after reirradiation followed by surgery. Factors associated with worse overall survival included male sex, a larger recurrent tumor and positive surgical margins. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 60% of patients achieved pelvic control after salvage therapy for recurrent or persistent anal squamous cell carcinoma. Although receipt of reirradiation and intraoperative radiation were not associated with improved second local recurrence or overall survival in our cohort, patients with positive surgical margins and lymphovascular space invasion on surgical pathology had higher rates of pelvic recurrence after salvage surgery and may benefit from escalated salvage therapy.