Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and mortality in chronic viral hepatitis in an Asian population with and without HIV infection.

BACKGROUND: It is uncertain whether people with HIV infection have a higher incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) than the general population. AIMS: To compare the incidence of HCC between people infected with HBV and/or HCV with and without HIV METHODS: We performed a retrospective population-based cohort study, involving people with HBV and/or HCV infection from 2001 to 2018. The primary endpoint was incidence of HCC; secondary endpoint was all-cause mortality. We performed Cox proportional hazard regression models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of HIV for the primary and secondary endpoints. RESULTS: We identified 1374 people infected with HIV and 39,908 people without HIV with HBV and/or HCV infection. Among those with HIV, 654 (47.6%) had HBV, 649 (47.2%) HCV and 71 (5.2%) HBV-HCV-co-infection; they were younger, and had a higher prevalence of HCV and a lower prevalence of cirrhosis. The incidence rate estimates of HCC were, respectively, 1.5 (95% CI: 0.8-2.5) and 7.6 (95% CI 7.3-8.0) per 1000 person-years for those with and without HIV infection. Using multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models, among people with HBV, HIV was associated with lower risk of HCC (adjusted HR: 0.376, 95% CI: 0.201-0.704, p = 0.01) and death (adjusted HR: 0.692, 95% CI: 0.552-0.867, p = 0.007). Risks of HCC were similar for HCV and HBV-HCV co-infection for people with and without HIV. CONCLUSIONS: Among individuals with HBV infection, the Incidence of HCC was lower in those with HIV. For HCV infection, incidence of HCC was similar between those with and without HIV.

User Engagement on a Novel Educational Health Intervention Aimed at Increasing HPV Vaccine Uptake in Hong Kong: a Qualitative Study.

HPV vaccine uptake rates are suboptimal in Hong Kong. A multi-disciplinary school-based HPV health-promotion programme (MDL-SHPVP) aimed at raising HPV knowledge levels and increasing vaccine uptake has therefore been developed to address vaccine hesitancy. This qualitative study was conducted to collect user feedback and identify the strengths and limitations of the educational resources developed for the programme among key vaccination stakeholders including adolescent girls and their mothers. Twenty-six participants including eight mother-daughter dyads, four teachers, three social workers, two school principals and one school nurse were recruited. To cater to the diverse audience, ten educational videos, three animations, a digital game and one booklet were developed for the programme and distributed to the participants for viewing. Semi-structured interviews were then conducted to collect feedback on the acceptability and effectiveness of the resources. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and resulting data were thematically analysed. Three themes and six sub-themes emerged. The educational materials were well-received and effective in raising HPV-knowledge levels, generating confidence in vaccine safety and effectiveness, and boosting vaccination intention. Some doubts regarding vaccine necessity remained, and recommendations for improving resource presentation and accessibility were provided. Our findings suggest that the MDL-SHPVP has the potential to boost HPV vaccine uptake. Future studies may explore educational interventions which target to increase not only HPV vaccination intention but also the sense of urgency so as to encourage timely vaccination for adolescents at the ideal age. Study findings may also provide directions for the development of future health education interventions.

Enhanced Cross-Reactive and Polyfunctional Effector-Memory T Cell Responses by ICVAX-a Human PD1-Based Bivalent HIV-1 Gag-p41 Mosaic DNA Vaccine.

Vaccine-induced protective T cell immunity is necessary for HIV-1 functional cure. We previously reported that rhesus PD1-Gag-based DNA vaccination sustained simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) suppression by inducing effector-memory CD8+ T cells. Here, we investigated a human PD1-Gag-based DNA vaccine, namely, ICVAX, for clinical translation. PD1-based dendritic cell targeting and mosaic antigenic designs were combined to generate the ICVAX by fusing the human soluble PD1 domain with a bivalent HIV-1 Gag-p41 mosaic antigen. The mosaic antigen was cross-reactive with patients infected with B, CRF07/08_BC, and CRF01_AE variants. In mice, ICVAX elicited stronger, broader, and more polyfunctional T cell responses than mosaic Gag-p41 alone, and suppressed EcoHIV infection more efficiently. In macaques, ICVAX elicited polyfunctional effector-memory T cell responses that targeted multiple nonoverlapping epitopes of the Gag-p41 antigen. Furthermore, ICVAX manufactured following good manufacturing practices proved potent immunogenicity in macaques after biannual homologous vaccination, warranting clinical evaluation of ICVAX as an immunotherapy against HIV-1. IMPORTANCE This study presents that ICVAX, a PD1-based DNA vaccine against HIV-1, could induce broad and polyfunctional T cell responses against different HIV-1 subtypes. ICVAX encodes a recombinant antigen consisting of the human soluble PD1 domain fused with two mosaic Gag-p41 antigens. The mosaic antigens cover more than 500 HIV-1 strains circulating in China including the subtypes B/B', CRF01_AE, and CRF07/08_BC. In mice, ICVAX elicited stronger, broader, and more polyfunctional T cell responses, with better EcoHIV suppression than the nontargeting mosaic Gag-p41 DNA vaccine. Moreover, both lab-generated and GMP-grade ICVAX also elicited strong polyfunctional effector-memory T cell responses in rhesus macaques with good immunogenicity against multiple nonoverlapping epitopes of the Gag-p41 antigen. This study therefore highlights the great potential to translate the PD1-based DNA vaccine approach into clinical use, and opens up new avenues for alternative HIV-1 vaccine design for HIV-1 preventive and functional cure.

Novel machine learning models outperform risk scores in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic viral hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Accurate hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk prediction facilitates appropriate surveillance strategy and reduces cancer mortality. We aimed to derive and validate novel machine learning models to predict HCC in a territory-wide cohort of patients with chronic viral hepatitis (CVH) using data from the Hospital Authority Data Collaboration Lab (HADCL). METHODS: This was a territory-wide, retrospective, observational, cohort study of patients with CVH in Hong Kong in 2000-2018 identified from HADCL based on viral markers, diagnosis codes, and antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B and/or C. The cohort was randomly split into training and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. Five popular machine learning methods, namely, logistic regression, ridge regression, AdaBoost, decision tree, and random forest, were performed and compared to find the best prediction model. RESULTS: A total of 124,006 patients with CVH with complete data were included to build the models. In the training cohort (n = 86,804; 6,821 HCC), ridge regression (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.842), decision tree (0.952), and random forest (0.992) performed the best. In the validation cohort (n = 37,202; 2,875 HCC), ridge regression (AUROC 0.844) and random forest (0.837) maintained their accuracy, which was significantly higher than those of HCC risk scores: CU-HCC (0.672), GAG-HCC (0.745), REACH-B (0.671), PAGE-B (0.748), and REAL-B (0.712) scores. The low cut-off (0.07) of HCC ridge score (HCC-RS) achieved 90.0% sensitivity and 98.6% negative predictive value (NPV) in the validation cohort. The high cut-off (0.15) of HCC-RS achieved high specificity (90.0%) and NPV (95.6%); 31.1% of patients remained indeterminate. CONCLUSIONS: HCC-RS from the ridge regression machine learning model accurately predicted HCC in patients with CVH. These machine learning models may be developed as built-in functional keys or calculators in electronic health systems to reduce cancer mortality. LAY SUMMARY: Novel machine learning models generated accurate risk scores for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic viral hepatitis. HCC ridge score was consistently more accurate than existing HCC risk scores. These models may be incorporated into electronic medical health systems to develop appropriate cancer surveillance strategies and reduce cancer death.

Managing cardiovascular risk in people living with HIV in Asia - where are we now?

As the life expectancy of people living with HIV (PLWH) approaches that of the general population, the burden of comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) is increasing. Regardless of HIV status, about 50% of CVD deaths worldwide occur in Asia, and Asian PLWH have a high prevalence of conventional CVD risk factors, such as smoking, dyslipidaemia, hypertension and insulin resistance or diabetes. As well as conventional CVD risk factors, PLWH have HIV-specific risk factors such as chronic inflammation, immune activation and endothelial damage, as well as risk factors related to antiretroviral therapy. This review describes the current knowledge on the epidemiology and risk factors of CVD in Asian PLWH and provides an Asian perspective on the recommendations for managing CVD risk in PLWH.

Epidemiology and outcomes of hyponatremia in patients with COVID-19-A territory-wide study in Hong Kong.

Background: Hyponatremia is common in COVID-19, but its epidemiology and impact on clinical outcomes in relation to different variants, especially the Omicron variant, requires further clarification. Methods: This was a territory-wide retrospective study to investigate the epidemiology and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with hyponatremia from January 1, 2020 to March 31, 2022 in Hong Kong. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality of patients with COVID-19 and hyponatremia at presentation. Secondary outcomes included rate of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalization, overall duration of hospitalization, and duration of ICU hospitalization. Results: A total of 53,415 COVID-19 patients were included for analysis, of which 14,545 (27.2%) had hyponatremia at presentation. 9813 (67.5%), 2821 (19.4%), and 1911 (13.1%) had mild (130 to <135 mmol/L), moderate (125 to <130 mmol/L), and severe hyponatremia (<125 mmol/L) at presentation respectively. Age, male sex, diabetes, active malignancy, white cell count, serum creatinine, hypoalbuminemia, C-reactive protein, and viral loads were independent predictors for hyponatremia in COVID-19 patients (P < 0.001, for all). Hyponatremic patients had increased 30-day mortality (9.7 vs. 5.7%, P < 0.001), prolonged hospitalization (11.9 ± 15.1 days vs. 11.5 ± 12.1 days, P < 0.001), and more ICU admissions (7.0% vs. 3.3%, P < 0.001). Patients diagnosed during the "fifth wave" Omicron BA.2 outbreak had 2.29-fold risk (95% CI 2.02-2.59, P < 0.001) of presenting with hyponatremia compared to other waves. Conclusion: Hyponatremia is common among COVID-19 patients, and may serve as a prognostic indicator for unfavorable outcomes and increased healthcare utilization in the evolving COVID-19 outbreak.

Aspirin Reduces the Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Oral Nucleos(t)ide Analog.

INTRODUCTION: Aspirin may reduce the risk of chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients receiving antiviral treatment. We aimed to investigate the impact of aspirin on reducing HCC risk in patients treated with first-line oral nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs; entecavir and/or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate). METHODS: We conducted a territorywide, retrospective cohort study in NA-treated CHB patients between 2000 and 2018 from the electronic healthcare data repository in Hong Kong. Subjects were classified into aspirin users for at least 90 days during NA treatment (aspirin group) or no aspirin or any other antiplatelet use during follow-up period (no aspirin group). Incidence rates of HCC and gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in 2 groups with propensity score matching with 1:3 ratio. RESULTS: Of 35,111 NA-treated CHB patients of mean age of 53.0 years and 61.6% men, sixty-nine (4.0%) and 1,488 (4.5%) developed HCC at a median (interquartile range) of 2.7 (1.4-4.8) years and 3.2 (1.8-6.0) years in the aspirin group and no aspirin group, respectively. A duration-dependent association between aspirin and the risk of HCC was observed (subhazard ratio [sHR] 3 months-2 years: 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-0.92; sHR 2-5 years: 0.63; 95% CI 0.43-0.94; sHR from ≥5 years: 0.41; 95% CI 0.18-0.91). Patients who took aspirin for ≤2 years had significantly higher risk of GIB (sHR: 1.73, 95% CI 1.07-2.79) than those not receiving aspirin. The risk of GIB started declining with the longer use of aspirin and becoming insignificant for ≥5 years' use (sHR: 0.79, 95% CI 0.19-3.21). DISCUSSION: Long-term aspirin use is associated with a lower risk of HCC in a duration-dependent manner in NA-treated CHB patients without a significant increase in the risk of gastrointestinal adverse effects.

Serum fibrosis index-based risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma in untreated patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Serum fibrosis scores comprised of common laboratory tests have high utility to assess severity of liver fibrosis. We aimed to derive and validate a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk score based on serum fibrosis scores to predict HCC in treatment-naïve chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. METHODS: Fifteen thousand one hundred eighty-seven treatment-naïve adult CHB patients were identified to form the training cohort in this retrospective study. Individual fibrosis score was included to construct a new HCC prediction score. The score was externally validated in an independent treatment-naïve Korean CHB cohort. RESULTS: 180/15,187 patients (1.2%) in training cohort and 47/4,286 patients (1.1%) in validation cohort developed HCC during a mean follow-up of 52 and 50 months, respectively. The newly developed HCC risk score, Liang score, is composed of gender, age, hepatitis B virus DNA, fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, and ranges from 0 to 22. Area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve of Liang score was 0.79 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.89). A cutoff value of nine provided an extremely high negative predictive value of 99.9% and high sensitivity of 90.0% at 5 years in the validation cohort. Patients with Liang score ≤9 had HCC incidence <0.2% per year in both training and validation cohorts, in whom HCC surveillance might be exempted. CONCLUSION: A novel HCC risk score, Liang score, based on FIB-4 index, is applicable and accurate to identify treatment-naïve CHB patients with very low risk of HCC to be exempted from HCC surveillance.

Interleukin-38 ameliorates poly(I:C) induced lung inflammation: therapeutic implications in respiratory viral infections.

Interleukin-38 has recently been shown to have anti-inflammatory properties in lung inflammatory diseases. However, the effects of IL-38 in viral pneumonia remains unknown. In the present study, we demonstrate that circulating IL-38 concentrations together with IL-36α increased significantly in influenza and COVID-19 patients, and the level of IL-38 and IL-36α correlated negatively and positively with disease severity and inflammation, respectively. In the co-cultured human respiratory epithelial cells with macrophages to mimic lung microenvironment in vitro, IL-38 was able to alleviate inflammatory responses by inhibiting poly(I:C)-induced overproduction of pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines through intracellular STAT1, STAT3, p38 MAPK, ERK1/2, MEK, and NF-κB signaling pathways. Intriguingly, transcriptomic profiling revealed that IL-38 targeted genes were associated with the host innate immune response to virus. We also found that IL-38 counteracts the biological processes induced by IL-36α in the co-culture. Furthermore, the administration of recombinant IL-38 could mitigate poly I:C-induced lung injury, with reduced early accumulation of neutrophils and macrophages in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, activation of lymphocytes, production of pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines and permeability of the alveolar-epithelial barrier. Taken together, our study indicates that IL-38 plays a crucial role in protection from exaggerated pulmonary inflammation during poly(I:C)-induced pneumonia, thereby providing the basis of a novel therapeutic target for respiratory viral infections.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Haematologist's Perspective.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is affecting millions of patients worldwide. It is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which belongs to the family Coronaviridae, with 80% genomic similarities to SARS-CoV. Lymphopenia was commonly seen in infected patients and has a correlation to disease severity. Thrombocytopenia, coagulation abnormalities, and disseminated intravascular coagulation were observed in COVID-19 patients, especially those with critical illness and non-survivors. This pandemic has caused disruption in communities and hospital services, as well as straining blood product supply, affecting chemotherapy treatment and haematopoietic stem cell transplantation schedule. In this article, we review the haematological manifestations of the disease and its implication on the management of patients with haematological disorders.

Similarly low risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after either spontaneous or nucleos(t)ide analogue-induced hepatitis B surface antigen loss.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who achieved hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance spontaneously or following anti-viral therapy have similar clinical outcomes. AIM: To compare the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with CHB who either cleared HBsAg spontaneously or following anti-viral therapy METHODS: Adult CHB-monoinfected patients who cleared HBsAg between January 2000 and March 2019 were identified from a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. Patients with liver transplantation and/or HCC before HBsAg loss were excluded. Patients' demographics, comorbidities, anti-viral treatment, laboratory parameters and HCC development were analysed. RESULTS: Of 7,124 identified patients with CHB who cleared HBsAg, mean age was 58.1 ± 13.8 years; 4,340 (60.9%) were male; 451 (6.3%) had cirrhosis; 5,917 (83.1%) and 1,207 (16.9%) had spontaneous and nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA)-induced HBsAg seroclearance, respectively. Most patients had normal liver function at HBsAg loss. Patients with NA-induced HBsAg seroclearance were younger, and more likely to be male and cirrhotic than patients with spontaneous HBsAg loss. At a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 4.3 (2.2-7.6) years, 97 (1.6%) and 16 (1.3%) patients with spontaneous and NA-induced HBsAg loss developed HCC, respectively. Patients who achieved NA-induced HBsAg loss had comparable HCC risk as those with spontaneous HBsAg loss (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio 0.75, 95% CI 0.43-1.32, P = 0.323). The results remained robust in propensity score weighting and matching analyses. CONCLUSION: The HCC risk was similarly low after either spontaneous or NA-induced HBsAg seroclearance in a territory-wide cohort of patients with CHB who had cleared HBsAg.

Effects of a multidisciplinary team-led school-based human papillomavirus vaccination health-promotion programme on improving vaccine acceptance and uptake among female adolescents: A cluster randomized controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence has consistently shown the high efficacy of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines in preventing cervical cancers. However, the HPV vaccine uptake rate in Hong Kong is very low. We will develop and evaluate an innovative, theory-based multidisciplinary team-led school-based HPV vaccination health-promotion program (MDL-SHPVP), engaging female adolescents, parents/guardians, and secondary school personnel in multicomponent educational strategies and interactive discussions. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A cluster randomized controlled trial is proposed. We will recruit 2520 female adolescents and their parents/guardians from 18 secondary day schools. The MDL-SHPVP is underpinned by the Health Belief Model and Precaution Adoption Process Model. Multicomponent interventions will be offered, including education sessions with small group dialogues with a registered nurse and trained healthcare and lay volunteers, and educational computer games. A team of volunteers will be established to raise HPV, cervical cancer, and HPV vaccine awareness. Outcomes include adolescents' uptake of the HPV vaccine, adolescents' intention to receive HPV vaccination, vaccine acceptance among parents/guardians, and parents'/guardians' and adolescents' HPV knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs. Data will be collected at baseline, 1 month, and 1 year after intervention. The generalized estimating equations analysis will be used for comparing the outcomes between the 2 groups. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained from the Joint Chinese University of Hong Kong-New Territories East Cluster Clinical Research Ethics Committee (Ref. no.: 2019.055). We will disseminate the study findings via peer-reviewed publications and presentations at relevant events and international and local conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04438291.

Serum hepatitis B core-related antigen predicts hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis B e antigen-negative patients.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is a novel serum viral marker. Recent studies showed that its level correlates with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of serum HBsAg and HBcrAg levels at baseline to predict HCC. METHODS: 1400 CHB patients who received nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA) treatment since December 2005 were included. Their stored serum samples at baseline were retrieved to measure HBsAg and HBcrAg levels. The primary endpoint was the cumulative incidence of HCC. RESULTS: 85 (6.1%) patients developed HCC during a mean (± SD) follow-up duration of 45 ± 20 months. Serum HBcrAg level above 2.9 log10 U/mL at baseline was an independent factor for HCC in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients by multivariable analysis (adjusted hazard ratio 2.13, 95% CI 1.10-4.14, P = 0.025). HBcrAg above 2.9 log10 U/mL stratified the risk of HCC in HBeAg-negative patients with high PAGE-B score (P = 0.024 by Kaplan-Meier analysis), and possibly in cirrhotic patients (P = 0.08). Serum HBsAg level did not show any correlation with the risk of HCC in all patients or any subgroups. CONCLUSION: Serum HBcrAg level predicts the risk of HCC accurately in NA-treated HBeAg-negative CHB patients.

Elevated testosterone increases risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in men with chronic hepatitis B and diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Male sex is a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with a doubled risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We examined the relationship between serum total testosterone and HCC risk in male CHB patients with DM. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of male CHB patients with DM between 2000 and 2017 using a territory-wide electronic health-care database in Hong Kong. DM was defined by use of anti-diabetic medications, hemoglobin A1c  ≥ 6.5%, and/or fasting glucose ≥ 7 mmol/L in two measurements or ≥ 11.1 mmol/L in one measurement. RESULTS: Of 928 male CHB patients with DM, 83 (8.9%) developed HCC at a median (interquartile range) of 10.7 (6.1-14.6) years. Higher testosterone was associated with an elevated risk of HCC (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] per 1 SD increase 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.46, P = 0.024). The upper tertile of testosterone (aHR 1.86, 95% CI 1.02-3.39, P = 0.043), but not middle tertile (aHR 0.84, 95% CI 0.41-1.69 P = 0.620), was associated with a higher risk of HCC than the lower tertile. The cumulative incidence (95% CI) of HCC at 5, 10, and 15 years was 4.4% (2.5-7.2%), 12.4% (8.7-16.7%), and 19.1% (14.2-24.5%), respectively, in patients in the upper tertile of testosterone. By subgroup analysis, the association between testosterone and HCC was stronger in patients aged ≥ 50 years and those not receiving antiviral therapy. CONCLUSION: Higher serum testosterone is associated with a higher incidence of HCC in male CHB patients with DM.

Thiazolidinediones reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and hepatic events in diabetic patients with chronic hepatitis B.

Thiazolidinediones (TZDs) improve glycaemic control and ameliorate liver steatosis, inflammation and fibrosis in patients with fatty liver disease. We aimed to study the impact of TZD and glycaemic control on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hepatic events in diabetic patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We performed a retrospective cohort study on diabetic patients with CHB in 2000-2017 using a territory-wide electronic healthcare database in Hong Kong. Diabetes mellitus was identified by use of any antidiabetic medication, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c ) ≥6.5%, fasting glucose ≥7 mmol/L in two measurements or ≥11.1 mmol/L in one measurement and/or diagnosis codes. Use of antidiabetic medications was modelled as time-dependent covariates. Of 28 999 diabetic patients with CHB, 3963 (13.7%) developed liver-related events (a composite endpoint of HCC and hepatic events) at a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 7.1 (3.7-11.8) years; 1153 patients received TZD during follow-up. After adjusted for important confounders, TZD use was associated with a reduced risk of liver-related events (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.24-0.88; P = .019). Similar trends were observed in HCC (aHR 0.57) and hepatic events (aHR 0.35) separately. Compared to HbA1c of 6.5% at baseline, patients with HbA1c ≥7% had an increased risk of liver-related events; the risk further increased in 5795 (20.0%) patients with HbA1c ≥9% at baseline (aHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.04-1.26; P = .006). TZD use is associated with a lower risk of liver-related events in diabetic patients with CHB. Liver-related events are more common in patients with high HbA1c levels.

An Aging Population of Chronic Hepatitis B With Increasing Comorbidities: A Territory-Wide Study From 2000 to 2017.

Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are aging because of improved survival under better health care. This has an important implication on the choice of antiviral treatment (AVT), given that long-term safety would be a concern in the presence of multiple comorbidities. We aimed to determine the prevalence of key comorbidities and concomitant medications in a territory-wide CHB cohort in Hong Kong in 2000-2017. CHB patients who have been under the care at primary, secondary, and tertiary medical centers in the public sector were identified through the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System of the Hospital Authority, Hong Kong. The demographics and prevalence of key comorbidities, including diabetes mellitus, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, osteopenia/osteoporosis based on diagnosis codes, relevant medications, and/or laboratory parameters, were determined according to CHB patients' first appearance in four time periods: 2000-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2013, and 2014-2017. In the final analysis, 135,395 CHB patients were included; the mean age increased with time: 41 ± 15 years in 2000-2004; 46 ± 17 years in 2005-2009; 51 ± 16 years in 2010-2013; and 55 ± 15 years in 2014-2017. There was a trend of increasing prevalence of several common comorbidities over the four periods: hypertension 25.5%, 23.8%, 27.2%, and 28.6%; diabetes mellitus 10.6%, 12.5%, 16.1%, and 20.1%; cardiovascular disease 12.5%, 16.9%, 20.9%, and 22.2%; and malignancy 7.0%, 13.2%, 17.3%, and 23.6%, respectively (all P < 0.001). Conclusion: CHB patients are getting older with increasing prevalence of common comorbidities. These comorbidities should be taken into account when choosing AVT.

Tenofovir Is Associated With Lower Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Than Entecavir in Patients With Chronic HBV Infection in China.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There have been conflicting results from studies comparing the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) vs those treated with entecavir. We compared the effects of TDF vs entecavir on HCC risk in a large cohort of patients with chronic HBV infection in China. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of consecutive adults with chronic HBV infection who initially received treatment with entecavir or TDF, for at least 6 months, from January 2008 through June 2018. Patients who had cancers or liver transplantation before or within the first 6 months of treatment were excluded. Propensity score weighting and 1:5 matching were used to balance the clinical characteristics between the 2 groups. Fine-Gray model was used to adjust for competing risk of death and liver transplantation. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 29,350 patients (mean age, 52.9 ± 13.2 years; 18,685 men [63.7%]); 1309 were first treated with TDF (4.5%) and 28,041 were first treated with entecavir (95.5%). TDF-treated patients were younger (mean age, 43.2 years vs 53.4 years) and a lower proportion had cirrhosis (38 patients [2.9%] vs 3822 patients treated with entecavir [13.6%]). At a median follow-up time of 3.6 years after treatment began (interquartile range, 1.7-5.0 years), 8 TDF-treated patients (0.6%) and 1386 entecavir-treated patients (4.9%) developed HCC. Patients' clinical characteristics were comparable after propensity score weighting. TDF treatment was associated with a lower risk of HCC than entecavir treatment after propensity score weighting (weighted subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.36; 95% confidence interval 0.16-0.80; P = .013) and 1:5 matching (weighted subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.39; 95% confidence interval 0.18-0.84; P = .016). CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective analysis of 29,350 patients with chronic HBV infection in China, treatment with TDF was associated with a lower risk of HCC than treatment with entecavir, over a median follow-up time of 3.6 years.

Reassessing the accuracy of PAGE-B-related scores to predict hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) scores were developed to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients on nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy. However, how and when to use these risk scores in clinical practice is uncertain. METHODS: Consecutive adult patients with chronic hepatitis B who had received entecavir or tenofovir for at least 6 months between January 2005 and June 2018 were identified from a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. The performance of PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores for HCC prediction at 5 years was assessed by area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and different cut-off values of these 2 scores were evaluated by survival analysis. RESULTS: Of 32,150 identified patients with chronic hepatitis B, 20,868 (64.9%) were male. Their mean age was 53.0 ± 13.2 years. At a median (IQR) follow-up of 3.9 (1.8-5.0) years, 1,532 (4.8%) patients developed HCC. The AUROCs (95% CI) for the prediction of HCC at 5 years were 0.77 (0.76-0.78) and 0.80 (0.79-0.81), with PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores, respectively (p <0.001). A total of 9,417 (29.3%) patients were classified as having a low HCC risk by either PAGE-B or mPAGE-B scores; their 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.6% (0.4%-0.8%). This classification achieved a negative predictive value of 99.5% (99.4%-99.7%) to exclude patients without HCC development at 5 years. The AUROCs for the prediction of HCC with PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores were similar at baseline and after 2 years on treatment. CONCLUSIONS: PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores can be applied to identify patients on antiviral therapy who are at low risk of developing HCC. These patients could be exempted from HCC surveillance due to their very low HCC risk. LAY SUMMARY: Risk scores have been developed to predict the likelihood of patients with chronic hepatitis B developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the role of 2 such scores, PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B, in predicting the risk of HCC in 32,150 nucleos(t)ide analogue-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B. These scores identified a group of patients at very low risk of developing HCC who could therefore be exempted from HCC surveillance.

Latent Tuberculosis Infection Testing Strategies for HIV-Positive Individuals in Hong Kong.

Importance: With immune recovery following early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART), the risk of tuberculosis (TB) reactivation among individuals with HIV could be reduced. The current strategy of annual latent TB infection (LTBI) testing should be revisited to increase cost-effectiveness and reduce the intensity of testing for individuals. Objective: To analyze the cost-effectiveness of LTBI testing strategies for individuals in Hong Kong with HIV who had negative LTBI test results at baseline. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model study using a cost-effectiveness analysis included 3130 individuals with HIV in Hong Kong, China, which has an intermediate TB burden and a low incidence of HIV-TB coinfection. A system dynamics model of individuals with HIV attending a major HIV specialist clinic in Hong Kong was developed and parameterized by longitudinal clinical and LTBI testing records of patients during a 15-year period. The study population was stratified by age group, CD4 lymphocyte level, ART status, and right of abode. Alternative strategies for LTBI testing after a baseline test were compared with annual testing under different coverages of ART, LTBI testing, and LTBI treatment scenarios in the model. An annual discounting rate of 3.5% was used in cost-effectiveness analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Proportion of new TB cases averted above base case scenario, discounted quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG), incremental cost, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in 2017 to 2023. Results: A total of 3130 patients with HIV (2740 [87.5%] male and 2800 [89.5%] younger than 50 years at HIV diagnosis) with 16 630 person-years of follow-up data from 2002 to 2017 were analyzed. Of these, 94 patients (0.67 [95% CI, 0.51-0.91] per 100 person-years) developed TB. Model estimates of cumulative number of TB cases would reach 146 by 2023, with the annual number of new TB diagnoses ranging from 6 to 8. For patients who had negative LTBI test results at baseline, subsequent LTBI testing strategies were ranked by ascending effectiveness as follows: (1) no testing, (2) test by risk factors, (3) biennial testing for all, (4) up to 3 tests for all, and (5) annual testing for all. Applying a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000 per QALYG, none of the subsequent testing strategies were cost-effective. Test by risk factors and up to 3 tests for all were cost-effective only if the willingness-to-pay threshold was increased to $100 000 per QALYG and $200 000 per QALYG, respectively. More new TB cases would be averted by expanding LTBI testing and/or treatment coverage. Conclusions and Relevance: Changing the current testing strategy to less intense testing strategies is likely to be cost-effective in the presence of an increased coverage of baseline LTBI testing and/or treatment.