Clinical decision-making on lung cancer investigations in primary care: a vignette study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the role of comorbid chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and symptom type on general practitioners' (GP's) symptom attribution and clinical decision-making in relation to lung cancer diagnosis. DESIGN: Vignette survey with a 2×2 mixed factorial design. SETTING: A nationwide online survey exploring clinical decision-making in primary care. PARTICIPANTS: 109 GPs based in the United Kingdom (UK) who were registered as responders on Dynata (an online survey platform). INTERVENTIONS: GPs were presented with four vignettes which described a patient aged 75 with a smoking history presenting with worsening symptoms (either general or respiratory) and with or without a pre-existing diagnosis of COPD. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: GPs indicated the three most likely diagnoses (free-text) and selected four management approaches (20 pre-coded options). Attribution of symptoms to lung cancer and referral for urgent chest X-ray were primary outcomes. Alternative diagnoses and management approaches were explored as secondary outcomes. Multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression was used, including random intercepts for individual GPs. RESULTS: 422 vignettes were completed. There was no evidence for COPD status as a predictor of lung cancer attribution (OR=1.1, 95% CI=0.5-2.4, p=0.914). There was no evidence for COPD status as a predictor of urgent chest X-ray referral (OR=0.6, 95% CI=0.3-1.2, p=0.12) or as a predictor when in combination with symptom type (OR=0.9, 95% CI=0.5-1.8, p=0.767). CONCLUSIONS: Lung cancer was identified as a possible diagnosis for persistent respiratory by only one out of five GPs, irrespective of the patients' COPD status. Increasing awareness among GPs of the link between COPD and lung cancer may increase the propensity for performing chest X-rays and referral for diagnostic testing for symptomatic patients.

Predictors and consequences of different pathways to emergency diagnosis of cancer in England: Evidence from linked national audit and cancer registration data.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of cancer soon after emergency care use is associated with adverse prognosis. We aimed to more precisely explore different definitions of emergency diagnosis. METHODS: For 43,383 patients in the National Cancer Diagnosis Audit and Routes to Diagnosis datasets, we defined two emergency care pathways: emergency referral (Type-A) and emergency hospital admission (Type-B). We examined patient and tumour factors associated with each pathway excluding the other, and in combination (Type-A+B), in particular their concordance and prognostic implications for short-term mortality. RESULTS: One in five patients (19 %) were diagnosed following emergency care use: 4 % through Type-A only, 7 % through Type-B only, and 8 % through Type-A+B. Higher co-morbidity, deprivation, advanced stage and certain cancer sites were associated with greater risk of emergency diagnosis. Concordance of emergency diagnosis pathway between Type-A and Type-B increased with age, co-morbidity and certain cancer sites. Patients with non-alarm symptoms were more likely to self-refer (Type-A) to an Emergency Department than patients with alarm symptoms. Associations with higher short-term mortality were strongest for Type-A+B. CONCLUSIONS: We profile different pathways to emergency diagnosis and identify opportunities to improve diagnostic processes for these patients.

Trends in primary care blood tests prior to lung and colorectal cancer diagnosis-A retrospective cohort study using linked Australian data.

INTRODUCTION: Abnormal results in common blood tests may occur several months before lung cancer (LC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis. Identifying early blood markers of cancer and distinct blood test signatures could support earlier diagnosis in general practice. METHODS: Using linked Australian primary care and hospital cancer registry data, we conducted a cohort study of 855 LC and 399 CRC patients diagnosed between 2001 and 2021. Requests and results from general practice blood tests (six acute phase reactants [APR] and six red blood cell indices [RBCI]) were examined in the 2 years before cancer diagnosis. Poisson regression models were used to estimate monthly incidence rates and examine pre-diagnostic trends in blood test use and abnormal results prior to cancer diagnosis, comparing patterns in LC and CRC patients. RESULTS: General practice blood test requests increase from 7 months before CRC and 6 months before LC diagnosis. Abnormalities in many APR and RBCI tests increase several months before cancer diagnosis, often occur prior to or in the absence of anaemia (in 51% of CRC and 81% of LC patients with abnormalities), and are different in LC and CRC patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates an increase in diagnostic activity in Australian general practice several months before LC and CRC diagnosis, indicating potential opportunities for earlier diagnosis. It identifies blood test abnormalities and distinct signatures that are early markers of LC and CRC. If combined with other pre-diagnostic information, these blood tests have potential to support GPs in prioritising patients for cancer investigation of different sites to expedite diagnosis.

Predictive value of abnormal blood tests for detecting cancer in primary care patients with nonspecific abdominal symptoms: A population-based cohort study of 477,870 patients in England.

BACKGROUND: Identifying patients presenting with nonspecific abdominal symptoms who have underlying cancer is a challenge. Common blood tests are widely used to investigate these symptoms in primary care, but their predictive value for detecting cancer in this context is unknown. We quantify the predictive value of 19 abnormal blood test results for detecting underlying cancer in patients presenting with 2 nonspecific abdominal symptoms. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to the National Cancer Registry, Hospital Episode Statistics and Index of Multiple Deprivation, we conducted a population-based cohort study of patients aged ≥30 presenting to English general practice with abdominal pain or bloating between January 2007 and October 2016. Positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV), sensitivity, and specificity for cancer diagnosis (overall and by cancer site) were calculated for 19 abnormal blood test results co-occurring in primary care within 3 months of abdominal pain or bloating presentations. A total of 9,427/425,549 (2.2%) patients with abdominal pain and 1,148/52,321 (2.2%) with abdominal bloating were diagnosed with cancer within 12 months post-presentation. For both symptoms, in both males and females aged ≥60, the PPV for cancer exceeded the 3% risk threshold used by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence for recommending urgent specialist cancer referral. Concurrent blood tests were performed in two thirds of all patients (64% with abdominal pain and 70% with bloating). In patients aged 30 to 59, several blood abnormalities updated a patient's cancer risk to above the 3% threshold: For example, in females aged 50 to 59 with abdominal bloating, pre-blood test cancer risk of 1.6% increased to: 10% with raised ferritin, 9% with low albumin, 8% with raised platelets, 6% with raised inflammatory markers, and 4% with anaemia. Compared to risk assessment solely based on presenting symptom, age and sex, for every 1,000 patients with abdominal bloating, assessment incorporating information from blood test results would result in 63 additional urgent suspected cancer referrals and would identify 3 extra cancer patients through this route (a 16% relative increase in cancer diagnosis yield). Study limitations include reliance on completeness of coding of symptoms in primary care records and possible variation in PPVs if extrapolated to healthcare settings with higher or lower rates of blood test use. CONCLUSIONS: In patients consulting with nonspecific abdominal symptoms, the assessment of cancer risk based on symptoms, age and sex alone can be substantially enhanced by considering additional information from common blood test results. Male and female patients aged ≥60 presenting to primary care with abdominal pain or bloating warrant consideration for urgent cancer referral or investigation. Further cancer assessment should also be considered in patients aged 30 to 59 with concurrent blood test abnormalities. This approach can detect additional patients with underlying cancer through expedited referral routes and can guide decisions on specialist referrals and investigation strategies for different cancer sites.

Underlying disease risk among fatigued patients: a population-based cohort study in primary care.

Background Presenting to primary care with fatigue is associated with a wide range of conditions, including cancer, although their relative likelihood is unknown. Aim To quantify associations between new-onset fatigue presentation and subsequent diagnosis of various diseases, including cancer. Design and setting Cohort study of patients presenting in English primary care with new-onset fatigue during 2007-2017 (fatigue presenters (FPs)), compared to non-fatigue presenters (NFPs), using Clinical Practice Research Datalink data linked to hospital episodes and national cancer registration data. Method We described excess short-term incidence of 237 diseases in FPs compared to NFPs. We modelled disease-specific 12-month risk by sex and calculated age-adjusted risk. Results We included 304,914 FPs and 423,671 NFPs. 127 of 237 diseases studied were more common in male FPs than in male NFPs, and 151 were more common in female FPs. Diseases that were most strongly associated with fatigue included: depression; insomnia & sleep disturbances, and hypo/hyperthyroidism (women only). By 80 years, cancer was the 3rd most common disease and had the 4th highest absolute excess risk in male FPs (FPs: 7.0%, CI = 6.6 to 7.5; NFPs: 3.4%, CI = 3.1 to 3.7; AER: 3.7%). In women, cancer remained relatively infrequent; by age 80 it had the 13th highest excess risk in FPs. Conclusion Our study ranks the likelihood of possible diagnoses in fatigue presenters, to inform diagnostic guidelines and doctors' decisions. Age-specific findings support recommendations to prioritise cancer investigation in older men with fatigue, but not women.

NHS cancer services and systems-ten pressure points a UK cancer control plan needs to address.

In this Policy Review we discuss ten key pressure points in the NHS in the delivery of cancer care services that need to be urgently addressed by a comprehensive national cancer control plan. These pressure points cover areas such as increasing workforce capacity and its productivity, delivering effective cancer survivorship services, addressing variation in quality, fixing the reimbursement system for cancer care, and balancing of the cancer research agenda. These areas have been selected based on their relative importance to ensuring sustainable cancer services, persistence as key issues in the NHS, and their impact on delivering better and more equitable and affordable patient outcomes. Many of these pressure points are not acknowledged explicitly in any current discourse. The evidence we provide points to their impact on the ability to deliver world class cancer care, but also to their amenability to affordable solutions if given the relevant prioritisation and investment. The current narrative needs to move away from a technocentric approach to improving care, to one focused on understanding the complexity of cancer services and the wider health system to drive improvements in survival, quality of life, and experience for patients.

Understanding symptom contribution to sex inequality in bladder and renal cancer stage at diagnosis.

Background: Understanding sex-specific factors contributing to advanced-stage diagnosis can guide interventions to reduce sex inequality in patients with urological cancers. Method: We used linked primary care and cancer registry data to examine associations between symptoms and advanced-stage in 1151 bladder cancer and 440 renal cancer patients diagnosed between January 2012 and December 2015 in England. We performed logistic regression, adjusting for sex, age, deprivation and routes to diagnosis, including interaction terms between symptoms and sex and symptoms and age. Results: Female sex (OR vs. men 1.89 [1.28-2.79]; p = 0.001) and patients presenting with urinary tract infections (OR 2.22 [1.34-3.69]) and abdominal symptoms (OR 2.19 [1.30-3.70]) were associated with increased odds of advanced-stage bladder cancer (vs. haematuria, p = 0.016 for both). Women with haematuria and men with abdominal symptoms (compared with the opposite sex with the same presenting symptom) were more likely to have advanced-stage bladder cancer. Neither sex nor symptom associations were observed for renal cancer. Conclusion: Non-haematuria symptoms are associated with higher risk of advanced-stage bladder cancer. Greater risk of advanced-stage bladder cancer in women may reflect biological differences in haematuria onset and sex differences during diagnostic process. Identifying higher risk women with haematuria may reduce sex inequalities in bladder cancer outcomes.

Routes to Diagnosis in Danish Lung Cancer Patients: Emergency Presentation, Age and Smoking History-A Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The fast-track cancer pathway aims to expedite diagnosis of lung cancer and treatment and is the preferred route to diagnosis. Diagnosis following an unplanned admission (unplanned route) has been associated with poor outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This study explores factors associated with lung cancer diagnosis following unplanned admissions, focusing on the elderly population. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using population-based data from Danish registries. Factors such as age, comorbidity, performance status, smoking history, socioeconomic parameters and treatment modality were analyzed in relation to route to diagnosis and prognosis. RESULTS: Among 17,835 patients, 16% were elderly (≥ 80 years). The unplanned route constituted 28% of diagnostic routes, with higher proportion among the elderly (33%). Poor performance status and advanced disease stage were associated with the unplanned route. Married patients were less likely to undergo an unplanned route to diagnosis. Smoking did not significantly influence diagnostic route. The adjusted odds ratio for curative treatment and dying 12 months after diagnosis, following unplanned route to diagnosis were 0.68 (95% CI, 0.61-0.76) and 1.48 (95% CI, 1.36-1.61), respectively. CONCLUSION: Frailty (poor performance status and high burden of comorbidity) in addition to unfavorable socioeconomic factors, which all were more prevalent among elderly patients, were associated with undergoing an unplanned route to diagnosis. However, age itself was not. Diagnosis following unplanned admission correlated with reduced likelihood of curative treatment and poorer prognosis. Expanding screening initiatives to include frail elderly individuals living alone, along with alertness by primary care clinicians, is warranted to improve outcomes for these patients.

Development and Implementation of a Digital Quality Measure of Emergency Cancer Diagnosis.

PURPOSE: Missed and delayed cancer diagnoses are common, harmful, and often preventable. Automated measures of quality of cancer diagnosis are lacking but could identify gaps and guide interventions. We developed and implemented a digital quality measure (dQM) of cancer emergency presentation (EP) using electronic health record databases of two health systems and characterized the measure's association with missed opportunities for diagnosis (MODs) and mortality. METHODS: On the basis of literature and expert input, we defined EP as a new cancer diagnosis within 30 days after emergency department or inpatient visit. We identified EPs for lung cancer and colorectal cancer (CRC) in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and Geisinger from 2016 to 2020. We validated measure accuracy and identified preceding MODs through standardized chart review of 100 records per cancer per health system. Using VA's longitudinal encounter and mortality data, we applied logistic regression to assess EP's association with 1-year mortality, adjusting for cancer stage and demographics. RESULTS: Among 38,565 and 2,914 patients with lung cancer and 14,674 and 1,649 patients with CRCs at VA and Geisinger, respectively, our dQM identified EPs in 20.9% and 9.4% of lung cancers, and 22.4% and 7.5% of CRCs. Chart reviews revealed high positive predictive values for EPs across sites and cancer types (72%-90%), and a substantial percent represented MODs (48.8%-84.9%). EP was associated with significantly higher odds of 1-year mortality for lung cancer and CRC (adjusted odds ratio, 1.78 and 1.83, respectively, 95% CI, 1.63 to 1.86 and 1.61 to 2.07). CONCLUSION: A dQM for cancer EP was strongly associated with both mortality and MODs. The findings suggest a promising automated approach to measuring quality of cancer diagnosis in US health systems.

Emergency department involvement in the diagnosis of cancer among older adults: a SEER-Medicare study.

BACKGROUND: Internationally, 20% to 50% of cancer is diagnosed through emergency presentation, which is associated with lower survival, poor patient experience, and socioeconomic disparities, but population-based evidence about emergency diagnosis in the United States is limited. We estimated emergency department (ED) involvement in the diagnosis of cancer in a nationally representative population of older US adults, and its association with sociodemographic, clinical, and tumor characteristics. METHODS: We analyzed Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program-Medicare data for Medicare beneficiaries (≥66 years old) with a diagnosis of female breast, colorectal, lung, and prostate cancers (2008-2017), defining their earliest cancer-related claim as their index date, and patients who visited the ED 0 to 30 days before their index date to have "ED involvement" in their diagnosis, with stratification as 0 to 7 or 8 to 30 days. We estimated covariate-adjusted associations of patient age, sex, race and ethnicity, marital status, comorbidity score, tumor stage, year of diagnosis, rurality, and census-tract poverty with ED involvement using modified Poisson regression. RESULTS: Among 614 748 patients, 23% had ED involvement, with 18% visiting the ED in the 0 to 7 days before their index date. This rate varied greatly by tumor site, with breast cancer at 8%, colorectal cancer at 39%, lung cancer at 40%, and prostate cancer at 7%. In adjusted models, older age, female sex, non-Hispanic Black and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander race, being unmarried, recent year of diagnosis, later-stage disease, comorbidities, and poverty were associated with ED involvement. CONCLUSIONS: The ED may be involved in the initial identification of cancer for 1 in 5 patients. Earlier, system-level identification of cancer in non-ED settings should be prioritized, especially among underserved populations.