The Delphi Delirium Management Algorithms. A practical tool for clinicians, the result of a modified Delphi expert consensus approach.

Delirium is common in hospitalised patients, and there is currently no specific treatment. Identifying and treating underlying somatic causes of delirium is the first priority once delirium is diagnosed. Several international guidelines provide clinicians with an evidence-based approach to screening, diagnosis and symptomatic treatment. However, current guidelines do not offer a structured approach to identification of underlying causes. A panel of 37 internationally recognised delirium experts from diverse medical backgrounds worked together in a modified Delphi approach via an online platform. Consensus was reached after five voting rounds. The final product of this project is a set of three delirium management algorithms (the Delirium Delphi Algorithms), one for ward patients, one for patients after cardiac surgery and one for patients in the intensive care unit.

Identifying Modifiable Predictors of Patient Outcomes After Intracerebral Hemorrhage with Machine Learning.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Demonstrating a benefit of acute treatment to patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) requires identifying which patients have a potentially modifiable outcome, where treatment could favorably shift a patient's expected outcome. A decision rule for which patients have a modifiable outcome could improve the targeting of treatments. We sought to determine which patients with ICH have a modifiable outcome. METHODS: Patients with ICH were prospectively identified at two institutions. Data on hematoma volumes, medication histories, and other variables of interest were collected. ICH outcomes were evaluated using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), assessed at 14 days and 3 months after ICH, with "good outcome" defined as 0-3 (independence or better) and "poor outcome" defined as 4-6 (dependence or worse). Supervised machine learning models identified the best predictors of good versus poor outcomes at Institution 1. Models were validated using repeated fivefold cross-validation as well as testing on the entirely independent sample at Institution 2. Model fit was assessed with area under the ROC curve (AUC). RESULTS: Model performance at Institution 1 was strong for both 14-day (AUC of 0.79 [0.77, 0.81] for decision tree, 0.85 [0.84, 0.87] for random forest) and 3 month (AUC of 0.75 [0.73, 0.77] for decision tree, 0.82 [0.80, 0.84] for random forest) outcomes. Independent predictors of functional outcome selected by the algorithms as important included hematoma volume at hospital admission, hematoma expansion, intraventricular hemorrhage, overall ICH Score, and Glasgow Coma Scale. Hematoma expansion was the only potentially modifiable independent predictor of outcome and was compatible with "good" or "poor" outcome in a subset of patients with low hematoma volumes, good Glasgow Coma scale and premorbid modified Rankin Scale scores. Models trained on harmonized data also predicted patient outcomes well at Institution 2 using decision tree (AUC 0.69 [0.63, 0.75]) and random forests (AUC 0.78 [0.72, 0.84]). CONCLUSIONS: Patient outcomes are predictable to a high level in patients with ICH, and hematoma expansion is the sole-modifiable predictor of these outcomes across two outcome types and modeling approaches. According to decision tree analyses predicting outcome at 3 months, patients with a high Glasgow Coma Scale score, less than 44.5 mL hematoma volume at admission, and relatively low premorbid modified Rankin Score in particular have a modifiable outcome and appear to be candidates for future interventions to improve outcomes after ICH.

Magnesium and Risk of Bleeding Complications From Ventriculostomy Insertion.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Hemorrhages are a serious complication of brain surgery, and magnesium has shown hemostatic properties in hemorrhagic stroke and non-neurological surgeries. External ventricular drain (EVD) insertion is an advantageous model of emergency neurosurgical hemorrhage risk because it is common, standardized, and the operator is blinded to the outcome during the procedure. We tested the hypothesis that low magnesium is associated with risk of hemorrhagic complications from EVD insertion. METHODS: Patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage were enrolled in a prospective, observational study. Demographic and clinical variables were prospectively recorded, including serum magnesium measurements. Catheter tract hemorrhage (CTH) was measured on postoperative head computed tomography within 48 hours of EVD insertion. RESULTS: We observed 50 CTH among 327 EVD procedures (15.3%) distributed similarly among intracerebral hemorrhage (21/116 [18.1%]) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (29/211 [13.7%]). Magnesium was lower in patients with CTH compared with those without (median 1.8 versus 2.0 mg/dL, P<0.0001). Higher magnesium was associated with lower odds of CTH (odds ratio 0.67 per 0.1 mg/dL magnesium [95% CI, 0.56-0.78], P<0.0001) after adjustment for other risk factors, with similar effect in the intracerebral hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage subgroups. Preprocedural increase in magnesium (odds ratio 0.68 [0.52-0.85]) and dose of preprocedural magnesium sulfate (odds ratio 0.67 [0.40-0.97]) were associated with reduced CTH risk after adjustment for initial magnesium and other risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Lower magnesium at the time of EVD insertion was an independent predictor of hemorrhagic complications. Baseline risk was attenuated by preprocedural increases in magnesium, suggesting a therapeutic opportunity.

Is Neck Dissection Associated with an Increased Risk of Postoperative Stroke?

Objective Prior studies have reported widely disparate rates of postoperative stroke, with conflicting analyses of whether neck dissection is an independent risk factor. Study Design Cohort study. Setting American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program from 2005 to 2013. Subjects and Methods We compared the 30-day rate of postoperative stroke between patients undergoing complete or modified radical neck dissection and a control cohort composed of those undergoing resections in the oral cavity, oropharynx, larynx, or hypopharynx without neck dissection. Propensity scores and paired statistics were used to compare the groups while adjusting for relevant covariates. Results We identified 9697 patients, including 5827 with neck dissection and 3870 without neck dissection. In the full cohort, the rate of postoperative stroke was greater with neck dissection than without it (0.31% vs 0.11%, P = .052), although the relationship was attenuated by propensity score matching to adjust for comorbidities (0.30% vs 0.13%, P = .18). Among patients with ≥2 risk factors for carotid artery stenosis, neck dissection was associated with an increased rate of postoperative stroke (2.68% with bilateral neck dissection, 0.41% with unilateral neck dissection, and 0.24% without neck dissection, P = .04). The incidence of stroke was strongly associated with 30-day mortality (7.4% vs 0.2%, P < .001). Conclusions Stroke is a rare but highly morbid complication after head and neck surgery. Compared with other head and neck surgery, neck dissection in patients at risk for carotid artery stenosis is associated with an increased risk of postoperative stroke.

Risk adjustment for case mix and the effect of surgeon volume on morbidity.

IMPORTANCE: Retrospective studies of large administrative databases have shown higher mortality for procedures performed by low-volume surgeons, but the adequacy of risk adjustment in those studies is in doubt. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the relationship between surgeon volume and outcomes is an artifact of case mix using a prospective sample of carotid endarterectomy cases. DESIGN: Observational cohort study from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2010, with preoperative, immediate postoperative, and 30-day postoperative assessments acquired by independent monitors. SETTING: Urban, tertiary academic medical center. PATIENTS: All 841 patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy performed by a vascular surgeon or cerebrovascular neurosurgeon at the institution. INTERVENTION: Carotid endarterectomy without another concurrent surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Stroke, death, and other surgical complications occurring within 30 days of surgery along with other case data. A low-volume surgeon performed 40 or fewer cases per year. Variables used in a comparison administrative database study, as well as variables identified by our univariate analysis, were used for adjusted analyses to assess for an association between low-volume surgeons and the rate of stroke and death as well as other complications. RESULTS The rate of stroke and death was 6.9% for low-volume surgeons and 2.0% for high-volume surgeons (P = .001). Complications were similarly higher (13.4% vs 7.2%, P = .008). Low-volume surgeons performed more nonelective cases. Low-volume surgeons were significantly associated with stroke and death in the unadjusted analysis as well as after adjustment with variables used in the administrative database study (odds ratio, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.70-7.67, and odds ratio, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.72-7.89, respectively). However, adjusting for the significant disparity of American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification in case mix eliminated the effect of surgeon volume on the rate of stroke and death (odds ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 0.59-4.64) and other complications. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Variables selected for risk adjustment in studies using administrative databases appear to be inadequate to control for case mix bias between low-volume and high-volume surgeons. Risk adjustment should empirically analyze for case mix imbalances between surgeons to identify meaningful risk modifiers in clinical practice such as the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification. A true relationship between surgeon volume and outcomes remains uncertain, and caution is advised in developing policies based on these findings.