Venous thromboembolism mortality and trends in older US adults, 2011-2019.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) affects 1.2 million people per year in the United States. With several clinical changes in diagnosis and treatment approaches in the past decade, we evaluated contemporary post-VTE mortality risk profiles and trends. Incident VTE cases were identified from the 2011-2019 Medicare 20% Sample, which is representative of nearly all Americans aged 65 and older. The social deprivation index was linked from public data; race/ethnicity and sex were self-reported. The all-cause mortality risk 30 days and 1 year after incident VTE was calculated in demographic subgroups and by prevalent cancer diagnosis status using model-based standardization. Risks for major cancer types, risk differences by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and socio-economic status (SES), and trends over time are also reported. The all-cause mortality risk among older US adults following incident VTE was 3.1% (95% CI 3.0-3.2) at 30 days and 19.6% (95% CI 19.2-20.1) at 1 year. For cancer-related VTE events, the age-sex-race-standardized risk was 6.0% at 30 days and 34.7% at 1 year. The standardized 30-day and 1-year risks were higher among non-White beneficiaries and among those with low SES. One-year mortality risk decreased 0.28 percentage points per year (95% CI 0.16-0.40) on average across the study period, with no trend observed for 30-day mortality risk. In sum, all-cause mortality risk following incident VTE has decreased slightly in the last decade, but racial and socio-economic disparities persist. Understanding patterns of mortality among demographic subgroups and in cancer-associated events is important for targeting efforts to improve VTE management.

Inpatient Versus Outpatient Acute Venous Thromboembolism Management: Trends and Postacute Healthcare Utilization From 2011 to 2018.

Background Acute outpatient management of venous thromboembolism (VTE), which includes pulmonary embolism (PE) and deep vein thrombosis (DVT), is perceived to be as safe as inpatient management in some settings. How widely this strategy is used is not well documented. Methods and Results Using MarketScan administrative claims databases for years 2011 through 2018, we identified patients with International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes indicating incident VTE and trends in the use of acute outpatient management. We also evaluated healthcare utilization and hospitalized bleeding events in the 6 months following the incident VTE event. A total of 200 346 patients with VTE were included, of whom 50% had evidence of PE. Acute outpatient management was used for 18% of those with PE and 57% of those with DVT only, and for both DVT and PE its use increased from 2011 to 2018. Outpatient management was less prevalent among patients with cancer, higher Charlson comorbidity index scores, and whose primary treatment was warfarin as compared with a direct oral anticoagulant. Healthcare utilization in the 6 months following the incident VTE event was generally lower among patients managed acutely as outpatients, regardless of initial presentation. Acute outpatient management was associated with lower hazard ratios of incident bleeding risk for both patients who initially presented with PE (0.71 [95% CI, 0.61, 0.82]) and DVT only (0.59 [95% CI, 0.54, 0.64]). Conclusions Outpatient management of VTE is increasing. In the present analysis, it was associated with lower subsequent healthcare utilization and fewer bleeding events. However, this may be because healthier patients were managed on an outpatient basis.

Assessing Techniques for Quantifying the Impact of Bias Due to an Unmeasured Confounder: An Applied Example.

PURPOSE: To compare the magnitude of bias due to unmeasured confounding estimated from various techniques in an applied example. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We examined the association between dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and incident estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer in a Danish nationwide cohort (N=1,122,042). Cox regression analyses were adjusted for age and active drug compounds contributing to DBP exposure. We estimated the hazard ratios (HRs) that would have been observed had one of the DBP sources been unmeasured and calculated the strength of confounding by comparing to the fully adjusted HR. We performed a quantitative bias analysis (QBA) of the "unmeasured" confounder, using external information to specify the bias parameters. Upper bounds on the bias were estimated and E-values were calculated. RESULTS: The adjusted HR for incident ER-positive breast cancer among women with high-level (≥10,000 cumulative milligrams) versus no DBP exposure was 2.12 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 4.05). Removing each DBP source in isolation resulted in negligible change in the HR. The bias estimates from the QBA ranged from 1.00 to 1.01. The estimated maximum impact of unmeasured confounding ranged from 1.01 to 1.51. E-values ranged from 3.46 to 3.68. CONCLUSION: The impact of bias due to simulated unmeasured confounding was negligible, in part, because the unmeasured variable was not independent of controlled variables. When a suspected confounder cannot be measured in the study data, our exercise suggests that QBA is the most informative method for assessing the impact. E-values may best be reserved for situations where uncontrolled confounding emanates from an unknown confounder.

Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status, Health Insurance, and CKD Prevalence: Findings From a Large Health Care System.

RATIONAL & OBJECTIVE: Neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) and health insurance status may be important upstream social determinants of chronic kidney disease (CKD), but their relationship remains unclear. The aim of this study was to determine whether neighborhood SES and individual-level health insurance status were independently associated with CKD prevalence. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study using electronic health records (EHRs). SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: EHRs of patients (n = 185,269) seen at a health care system in the 7-county Minneapolis/St Paul area (2017-2018). EXPOSURES: Census tract neighborhood SES measures (median value of owner-occupied housing units [wealth], percentage of residents aged >25 years with bachelor's degree or higher [education]) and individual-level health insurance status (aged <65 years: Medicaid vs other insurance; ≥65 years: Medicare vs Medicare and supplemental insurance plan) were obtained from the American Community Survey and EHR data. Neighborhood SES was operationalized into quartiles, comparing low (first quartile) versus high (fourth quartile) neighborhood SES. OUTCOMES: CKD prevalence: estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or proteinuria. ANALYTIC APPROACH: Multilevel Poisson regression with robust error variance with a random intercept at the census-tract level, adjusted for demographic and clinical covariates, was used to estimate the association between neighborhood SES, insurance, and CKD. RESULTS: Neighborhood SES and insurance were independently associated with CKD prevalence. In covariate-adjusted models, patients living in low versus high neighborhood SES had a higher CKD prevalence among both younger and older patients. For example, the prevalence ratios of CKD in low versus high neighborhood SES as defined by education among patients younger than 65 and 65 years and older were 1.11 (95% CI, 1.05-1.18) and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.04-1.12), respectively. Patients younger than 65 years receiving Medicaid had higher CKD prevalence versus those with other insurance (1.51 [95% CI, 1.43-1.6]). For patients 65 years and older, insurance was not associated with prevalence of CKD in the fully adjusted model. LIMITATIONS: One health care system and selection bias. CONCLUSIONS: Living in low neighborhood SES as defined by wealth and education and having Medicaid for patients younger than 65 years were associated with higher CKD prevalence.

Bias Analysis Gone Bad.

Quantitative bias analysis comprises the tools used to estimate the direction, magnitude, and uncertainty from systematic errors affecting epidemiologic research. Despite the availability of methods and tools, and guidance for good practices, few reports of epidemiologic research incorporate quantitative estimates of bias impacts. The lack of familiarity with bias analysis allows for the possibility of misuse, which is likely most often unintentional but could occasionally include intentional efforts to mislead. We identified 3 examples of suboptimal bias analysis, one for each common bias. For each, we describe the original research and its bias analysis, compare the bias analysis with good practices, and describe how the bias analysis and research findings might have been improved. We assert no motive to the suboptimal bias analysis by the original authors. Common shortcomings in the examples were lack of a clear bias model, computed example, and computing code; poor selection of the values assigned to the bias model's parameters; and little effort to understand the range of uncertainty associated with the bias. Until bias analysis becomes more common, community expectations for the presentation, explanation, and interpretation of bias analyses will remain unstable. Attention to good practices should improve quality, avoid errors, and discourage manipulation.

Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status and Identification of Patients With CKD Using Electronic Health Records.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Screening for chronic kidney disease (CKD) is recommended for patients with diabetes and hypertension as stated by the respective professional societies. However, CKD, a silent disease usually detected at later stages, is associated with low socioeconomic status (SES). We assessed whether adding census tract SES status to the standard screening approach improves our ability to identify patients with CKD. STUDY DESIGN: Screening test analysis. SETTINGS & PARTICIPANTS: Electronic health records (EHR) of 256,162 patients seen at a health care system in the 7-county Minneapolis/St. Paul area and linked census tract data. EXPOSURE: The first quartile of census tract SES (median value of owner-occupied housing units <$165,200; average household income <$35,935; percentage of residents >25 years of age with a bachelor's degree or higher <20.4%), hypertension, and diabetes. OUTCOMES: CKD (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, or urinary albumin-creatinine ratio >30mg/g, or urinary protein-creatinine ratio >150mg/g, or urinary analysis [albuminuria] >30 mg/d). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Sensitivity, specificity, and number needed to screen (NNS) to detect CKD if we screened patients who had hypertension and/or diabetes and/or who lived in low-SES tracts (belonging to the first quartile of any of the 3 measures of tract SES) versus the standard approach. RESULTS: CKD was prevalent in 13% of our cohort. Sensitivity, specificity, and NNS of detecting CKD after adding tract SES to the screening approach were 67% (95% CI, 66.2%-67.2%), 61% (95% CI, 61.1%-61.5%), and 5, respectively. With the standard approach, sensitivity of detecting CKD was 60% (95% CI, 59.4%-60.4%), specificity was 73% (95% CI, 72.4%-72.7%), and NNS was 4. LIMITATIONS: One health care system and selection bias. CONCLUSIONS: Leveraging patients' addresses from the EHR and adding tract-level SES to the standard screening approach modestly increases the sensitivity of detecting patients with CKD at a cost of decreased specificity. Identifying further factors that improve CKD detection at an early stage are needed to slow the progression of CKD and prevent cardiovascular complications.

Improving the transparency of meta-analyses with interactive web applications.

Increased transparency in study design and analysis is one proposed solution to the perceived reproducibility crisis facing science. Systematic review and meta-analysis-through which individual studies on a specific association are ascertained, assessed for quality and quantitatively combined-is a critical process for building consensus in medical research. However, the conventional publication model creates static evidence summaries that force the quality assessment criteria and analytical choices of a small number of authors onto all stakeholders, some of whom will have different views on the quality assessment and key features of the analysis. This leads to discordant inferences from meta-analysis results and delayed arrival at consensus. We propose a shift to interactive meta-analysis, through which stakeholders can take control of the evidence synthesis using their own quality criteria and preferred analytic approach-including the option to incorporate prior information on the association in question-to reveal how their summary estimate differs from that reported by the original analysts. We demonstrate this concept using a web-based meta-analysis of the association between genetic variation in a key tamoxifen-metabolising enzyme and breast cancer recurrence in tamoxifen-treated women. We argue that interactive meta-analyses would speed consensus-building to the degree that they reveal invariance of inferences to different study selection and analysis criteria. On the other hand, when inferences are found to differ substantially as a function of these choices, the disparities highlight where future research resources should be invested to resolve lingering sources of disagreement.

A Bayesian Approach for Determining the Relationship Between Various Elongate Mineral Particles (EMPs) Definitions.

A variety of dimensions (lengths and widths) of elongate mineral particles (EMPs) have been proposed as being related to health effects. In this paper, we develop a mathematical approach for deriving numerical conversion factors (CFs) between these EMP exposure metrics and applied it to the Minnesota Taconite Health Worker study which contains 196 different job exposure groups (28 similar exposure groups times 7 taconite mines). This approach comprises four steps: for each group (i) obtain EMP dimension information using ISO-TEM 10312/13794 analysis; (ii) use bivariate lognormal distribution to characterize overall EMP size distribution; (iii) use a Bayesian approach to facilitate the formation of the bivariate lognormal distribution; (iv) derive conversion factors between any pair of EMP definitions. The final CFs allow the creation of job exposure matrices (JEMs) for alternative EMP metrics using existing EMP exposures already characterized according to the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)-defined EMP exposure metric (length >5 µm with an aspect ratio ≥3.0). The relationships between the NIOSH EMP and other EMP definitions provide the basis of classification of workers into JEMs based on alternate definitions of EMP for epidemiological studies of mesothelioma, lung cancer, and non-malignant respiratory disease.

Weight change over 9 years and subsequent risk of venous thromboembolism in the ARIC cohort.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Weight gain increases risk of cardiovascular disease, but has not been examined extensively in relationship to venous thromboembolism (VTE). The association between weight change over 9 years and subsequent VTE among participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study was examined, with a hypothesis that excess weight gain is a risk factor for VTE, relative to no weight change. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Quintiles of 9-year weight change were calculated (visit 4 1996-1998 weight minus visit 1 1987-1989 weight in kg: Quintile 1: ≥-1.81 kg; Quintile 2: <-1.81 to ≤1.36 kg; Quintile 3: >1.36 to ≤4.08 kg; Quintile 4: >4.08 to ≤7.71 kg; Quintile 5: >7.71 kg). Incident VTEs from visit 4 (1996-1998) through 2015 were identified and adjudicated using medical records. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox models. RESULTS: 529 incident VTEs were identified during an average of 19 years of follow up. Compared to Quintile 2, participants in Quintile 5 of weight change had 1.46 times the rate of incident VTE (HR = 1.46 (95% CI 1.09, 1.95), adjusted for age, race, sex, income, physical activity, smoking, and prevalent CVD). The HR for Quintile 5 was modestly attenuated to 1.38 (95% CI 1.03, 1.84) when visit 1 BMI was included in the model. When examined separately, results were significant for unprovoked VTE, but not for provoked VTE. Among those obese at visit 1, both weight gain (HR 1.86 95% CI 1.27, 2.71) and weight loss (HR 2.11 95% CI 1.39, 3.19) were associated with incident VTE, compared with normal-weight participants with no weight change. CONCLUSIONS: Weight gain later life was associated with increased risk for unprovoked VTE. Among those with obesity, both weight gain and weight loss were associated with increased risk for VTE.

Polypharmacy, Adverse Outcomes, and Treatment Effectiveness in Patients ≥75 With Atrial Fibrillation.

Background Polypharmacy is highly prevalent in elderly people with chronic conditions, including atrial fibrillation (AF). The impact of polypharmacy on adverse outcomes and on treatment effectiveness in elderly patients with AF remains unaddressed. Methods and Results We studied 338 810 AF patients ≥75 years of age enrolled in the MarketScan Medicare Supplemental database in 2007-2015. Polypharmacy was defined as ≥5 active prescriptions at AF diagnosis (defined by the presence of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification [ICD-9-CM] codes) based on outpatient pharmacy claims. AF treatments (oral anticoagulation, rhythm and rate control) and cardiovascular end points (ischemic stroke, bleeding, heart failure) were defined based on inpatient, outpatient, and pharmacy claims. Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate associations of polypharmacy with cardiovascular end points and the interaction between polypharmacy and AF treatments in relation to cardiovascular end points. Prevalence of polypharmacy was 52%. Patients with polypharmacy had increased risk of major bleeding (hazard ratio [HR], 1.16; 95% CI, 1.12-1.20) and heart failure (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.29-1.36) but not ischemic stroke (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.92-1.00), compared with those not receiving polypharmacy. Polypharmacy status did not consistently modify the effectiveness of oral anticoagulants. Rhythm control (versus rate control) was more effective in preventing heart failure hospitalization in patients not receiving polypharmacy (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.76-0.99) than among those with polypharmacy (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.91-1.07; P=0.02 for interaction). Conclusion Polypharmacy is common among patients ≥75 with AF, is associated with adverse outcomes, and may modify the effectiveness of AF treatments. Optimizing management of polypharmacy in AF patients ≥75 may lead to improved outcomes.

Association of Multimorbidity with Cardiovascular Endpoints and Treatment Effectiveness in Patients 75 Years and Older with Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: The burden imposed by multimorbidity on outcomes and on the effectiveness of atrial fibrillation therapies in elderly adults with atrial fibrillation is unknown. METHODS: Patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation ages ≥75 years in the MarketScan Medicare Supplemental database from 2007-2015. Prevalence of 14 chronic conditions at the time of atrial fibrillation diagnosis were obtained and classified as cardiometabolic or noncardiometabolic. Cox regression estimated the associations of the number and type of conditions with stroke, severe bleeding, and heart failure hospitalizations. Tests for interaction were assessed between atrial fibrillation treatments and multimorbidity. RESULTS: Among 275,617 patients with atrial fibrillation (mean age 83 years, 51% women), the mean (SD) number of conditions per participant was 3.0 (2.1). Over a mean follow-up of 23 months, 7814 strokes, 13,622 severe bleeds, and 19,252 heart failure events occurred. After adjustment, an increase in the number of cardiometabolic conditions was associated with greater risk of stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.10), severe bleeding (HR 1.09; 95% CI, 1.07-1.11), and heart failure (HR 1.19, 95% CI, 1.18-1.20). In contrast, number of noncardiometabolic conditions had weak or null associations with risk of cardiovascular endpoints. Overall, the effectiveness of atrial fibrillation treatment on stroke and heart failure were similar across multimorbidity status, but bleeding risk associated with atrial fibrillation treatments was higher in patients with overall and subgroup multimorbidity. CONCLUSION: Cardiometabolic multimorbidity was associated with worse outcomes and modified bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation patients. These findings underscore the impact of cardiometabolic conditions on atrial fibrillation outcomes and highlights the need to incorporate multimorbidity management in atrial fibrillation treatment guidelines.

Application of the Adaptive Validation Substudy Design to Colorectal Cancer Recurrence.

BACKGROUND: Among men and women diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC), 20-50% will develop a cancer recurrence. Cancer recurrences are not routinely captured by most population-based registries; however, linkage across Danish registries allows for the development of predictive models to detect recurrence. Successful application of such models in population-based settings requires validation against a gold standard to ensure the accuracy of recurrence identification. OBJECTIVE: We apply a recently developed validation study design for prospectively collected validation data to validate predicted CRC recurrences against gold standard diagnoses from medical records in an actively followed cohort of CRC patients in Denmark. METHODS: We use a Bayesian monitoring framework, traditionally used in clinical trials, to iteratively update classification parameters (positive and negative predictive values, and sensitivity and specificity) in an adaptive validation substudy design. This design allows determination of the sample size necessary to estimate the corresponding parameters and to identify when validation efforts can cease based on predefined criteria for parameter values and levels of precision. RESULTS: Among 355 men and women diagnosed with CRC in Denmark and actively followed semi-annually, there were 63 recurrences diagnosed by active follow-up and 70 recurrences identified by a predictive algorithm. The adaptive validation design met stopping criteria for the classification parameters after 120 patients had their recurrence information validated. This stopping point yielded parameter estimates for the classification parameters similar to those obtained when the entire cohort was validated, with 66% less patients needed for the validation study. CONCLUSION: In this proof of concept application of the adaptive validation study design for outcome misclassification, we demonstrated the ability of the method to accurately determine when sufficient validation data have been collected. This method serves as a novel validation substudy design for prospectively collected data with simultaneous implementation of a validation study.

The impact of different approaches to exposure assessment on understanding non-malignant respiratory disease risk in taconite miners.

INTRODUCTION: We examined the association between cumulative silica exposures in taconite mining and non-malignant respiratory disease (NMRD) using a comprehensive assessment of current and historical exposure measurements in a cross-sectional study of Minnesota taconite mining workers. We also explored the impact of exposure measurement methods by comparing estimated exposure risk from two different exposure measurement modeling approaches. METHODS: Miners were screened with an occupational and medical history questionnaire, spirometry testing and chest x-rays per ILO guidelines. Current and historical occupational exposure assessments were obtained, the former measuring about 679 personal samples over the period of the study for respirable dusts, including silica, in 28 major job functions. Cumulative silica exposure ((mg/m3) × years) was estimated as a cumulative product of time worked and year-specific silica job exposure concentrations. Chest x-ray abnormalities were based on B-reader agreement with a third B-reader for arbitration. Forced vital capacity (FVC) less than lower limits of normal for age, height, race and gender was used to determine spirometric restrictive ventilatory defect (RVD). Prevalence ratios (PR) of exposure-outcome associations, with 95% confidence intervals (CI), were estimated using multivariate Poisson regression. RESULTS: Cumulative silica exposure was associated with RVD prevalence (PR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.09-1.81) and prevalence of parenchymal abnormalities on chest x-ray (PR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.00-1.69) using exposure estimates based primarily on current study measurements, and assuming unchanged historical exposure trend. Conversely, when exposures were defined incorporating available actual historical values, no associations were observed between silica exposure and either RVD (PR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.41-1.40) or parenchymal (PR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.45-1.70) outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that the estimated association between silica dust exposure and lung disease is highly sensitive to the approach used to estimate cumulative exposure. Cumulative values based on conservative estimates of past exposure, modeled from recently measured respirable silica, showed an association with restriction RVD on spirometry. Silica exposure was also significantly associated with increased parenchymal findings on chest x-ray using this approach. Conversely, these findings were absent when actual available historical data was used to estimate cumulative silica exposure. These differences highlight the challenges with estimating occupational dust exposure, the potential impact on calculated exposure risk and the need for long term quality exposure data gathering in industries prone to risk from inhaled respirable dusts.

Association of Testosterone Therapy With Risk of Venous Thromboembolism Among Men With and Without Hypogonadism.

Importance: Testosterone therapy is increasingly prescribed in patients without a diagnosis of hypogonadism. This therapy may be associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) through several mechanisms, including elevated hematocrit levels, which increase blood viscosity. Objective: To assess whether short-term testosterone therapy exposure is associated with increased short-term risk of VTE in men with and without evidence of hypogonadism. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case-crossover study analyzed data on 39 622 men from the IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounter Database and the Medicare Supplemental Database from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2017, with 12 months of follow-up. Men with VTE cases who were free of cancer at baseline and had 12 months of continuous enrollment before the VTE event were identified by International Classification of Diseases codes. Men in the case period were matched with themselves in the control period. Case periods of 6 months, 3 months, and 1 month before the VTE events were defined, with equivalent control periods (6 months, 3 months, and 1 month) in the 6 months before the case period. Exposures: National drug codes were used to identify billed testosterone therapy prescriptions in the case period (0-6 months before the VTE) and the control period (6-12 months before the VTE). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome in this case-only experiment was first VTE event stratified by the presence or absence of hypogonadism. Results: A total of 39 622 men (mean [SD] age, 57.4 [14.2] years) were enrolled in the study, and 3110 men (7.8%) had evidence of hypogonadism. In age-adjusted models, testosterone therapy use in all case periods was associated with a higher risk of VTE in men with (odds ratio [OR], 2.32; 95% CI, 1.97-2.74) and without (OR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.47-2.77) hypogonadism. Among men without hypogonadism, the point estimate for testosterone therapy and VTE risk in the 3-month case period was higher for men younger than 65 years (OR, 2.99; 95% CI, 1.91-4.68) than for older men (OR, 1.68; 95% CI, 0.90-3.14), although this interaction was not statistically significant (P = .14). Conclusions and Relevance: Testosterone therapy was associated with an increase in short-term risk for VTE among men with and without hypogonadism, with some evidence that the association was more pronounced among younger men. These findings suggest that caution should be used when prescribing testosterone therapy.

Prospective Study of Endogenous Hormones and Incidence of Venous Thromboembolism: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Exogenous hormone treatments in women (oral contraceptives and hormone replacement therapy [HRT]) are established risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE), but less is known about associations between plasma levels of endogenous hormones and VTE risk. We examined the association of baseline dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) with risk of future VTE in men and post-menopausal women in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Testosterone, DHEAS and SHBG were measured in plasma samples collected in 1996 to 1998. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios for incident VTE adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, body mass index, height, smoking, estimated glomerular filtration rate and C-reactive protein. All analyses were stratified by sex and by current HRT use in women. Among 3,051 non-HRT-using women, 1,414 HRT-using women and 3,925 men at risk at baseline, 184, 62 and 206 experienced incident VTE after a median follow-up of 17.6 years. Plasma hormones were not associated with incidence of VTE among men and non-HRT-using women, although lower plasma DHEAS, when modelled using quartiles or restricted cubic splines, was associated with higher risk of VTE among HRT-using women. This study does not support the existence of an important association between plasma concentrations of endogenous testosterone, DHEAS or SHBG with risk of VTE in middle-aged to older men or post-menopausal women not using HRT.

Provider Specialty, Anticoagulation, and Stroke Risk in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Cancer.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether early cardiology involvement shortly after atrial fibrillation (AF) diagnosis is associated with favorable outcomes in AF patients who have cancer. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between early cardiology involvement after AF diagnosis in patients with history of cancer. METHODS: This study examined associations of early cardiology involvement with oral anticoagulation use, stroke, and bleeding among nonvalvular AF patients (n = 388,045; mean age 68 ± 15 years; 59% male) with a history of cancer (past or active) from the MarketScan database (2009 to 2014). International Classification of Disease-9th Revision-Clinical Modification codes in any position were used to identify cancer diagnosis prior to AF diagnosis. Provider specialty and filled anticoagulant prescriptions 3 months prior to and 6 months after AF diagnosis were obtained. Poisson regression models were used to compute the probability of an oral anticoagulant prescription fill, and Cox regression was used to estimate the risks of stroke and major bleeding. RESULTS: A total of 64,016 (17%) AF patients had a history of cancer. Cardiology involvement was less likely to occur among patients with a history of cancer than those without (relative risk [RR]: 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.91 to 0.93]). Patients with history of cancer were less likely to fill prescriptions for anticoagulants (RR: 0.89 [95% CI: 0.88 to 0.90]) than those without cancer, and similar results were observed across cancer types. Patients with cancer were more likely to fill prescriptions for anticoagulants (RR: 1.48 [95% CI: 1.45 to 1.52]) if seen by a cardiologist. A reduced risk of stroke (hazard ratio: 0.89 [95% CI: 0.81 to 0.99]) was observed among all cancer patients who were seen by a cardiology provider, without an increased risk of bleeding (hazard ratio: 1.04 [95% CI: 0.95 to 1.13]). Similar results were observed when the analysis was stratified by active versus remote history of cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Although AF patients with cancer were less likely to see a cardiologist, or fill anticoagulant prescriptions, cardiology involvement was associated with increased anticoagulant prescription fills and favorable AF-related outcomes in AF patients with cancer.

Nonidentifiability in Model Calibration and Implications for Medical Decision Making.

BACKGROUND: Calibration is the process of estimating parameters of a mathematical model by matching model outputs to calibration targets. In the presence of nonidentifiability, multiple parameter sets solve the calibration problem, which may have important implications for decision making. We evaluate the implications of nonidentifiability on the optimal strategy and provide methods to check for nonidentifiability. METHODS: We illustrate nonidentifiability by calibrating a 3-state Markov model of cancer relative survival (RS). We performed 2 different calibration exercises: 1) only including RS as a calibration target and 2) adding the ratio between the 2 nondeath states over time as an additional target. We used the Nelder-Mead (NM) algorithm to identify parameter sets that best matched the calibration targets. We used collinearity and likelihood profile analyses to check for nonidentifiability. We then estimated the benefit of a hypothetical treatment in terms of life expectancy gains using different, but equally good-fitting, parameter sets. We also applied collinearity analysis to a realistic model of the natural history of colorectal cancer. RESULTS: When only RS is used as the calibration target, 2 different parameter sets yield similar maximum likelihood values. The high collinearity index and the bimodal likelihood profile on both parameters demonstrated the presence of nonidentifiability. These different, equally good-fitting parameter sets produce different estimates of the treatment effectiveness (0.67 v. 0.31 years), which could influence the optimal decision. By incorporating the additional target, the model becomes identifiable with a collinearity index of 3.5 and a unimodal likelihood profile. CONCLUSIONS: In the presence of nonidentifiability, equally likely parameter estimates might yield different conclusions. Checking for the existence of nonidentifiability and its implications should be incorporated into standard model calibration procedures.

Pleural abnormalities and exposure to elongate mineral particles in Minnesota iron ore (taconite) workers.

BACKGROUND: Iron ore (taconite) mining and processing are an important industry in northern Minnesota and western Michigan. Concerns around exposures have centered largely on exposure to non-asbestiform amphibole elongate mineral particles (EMPs) found in the eastern portion of the Minnesota iron range. METHODS: A cross sectional survey was undertaken of current and former taconite workers and spouses along with a detailed exposure assessment. Participants provided an occupational history and had a chest radiograph performed. RESULTS: A total of 1188 workers participated. Potential exposures to non-amphibole EMPs were evident across multiple jobs in all active mines. Pleural abnormalities were found in 16.8% of workers. There was an association of pleural abnormalities with cumulative EMP exposure that was not specific to the eastern portion of the range. CONCLUSION: There was evidence of a mild to moderate increase in pleural abnormalities in this population of miners, associated with geographically non-specific cumulative EMP exposure.

Comparative effectiveness of direct oral anticoagulants and warfarin in patients with cancer and atrial fibrillation.

Randomized clinical trials comparing direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) to warfarin in cancer patients have not been performed. We evaluated the effectiveness and associated risk of DOACs vs warfarin, as well as comparisons of DOACs, in a large population of cancer patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF). Using the MarketScan databases, we identified 16 096 AF patients (mean age, 74 years) initiating oral anticoagulant and being actively treated for cancer between 2010 and 2014. Anticoagulant users were matched by age, sex, enrollment date, and drug initiation date. Study end points were identified with diagnostic codes and included ischemic stroke, severe bleeding, other bleeding, and venous thromboembolism (VTE). Cox regression was used to estimate associations of anticoagulants with study end points. Compared with warfarin, rates of bleeding (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]) were similar in rivaroxaban (1.09 [0.79, 1.39]) and dabigatran (0.96 [0.72, 1.27]) users, whereas apixaban users experienced lower rates (0.37 [0.17, 0.79]). Rates of ischemic stroke did not differ among anticoagulant users. Compared with warfarin, rate of VTE (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]) was lower among rivaroxaban (0.51 [0.41, 0.63]), dabigatran (0.28 [0.21, 0.38]), and apixaban (0.14 [0.07, 0.32]) users. In head-to-head comparisons among DOACs, dabigatran users had lower rates of VTE than rivaroxaban users; apixaban users had lower rates of VTE and severe bleeding than rivaroxaban users. In this population of patients with AF and cancer, DOAC users experienced lower or similar rates of bleeding and stroke compared with warfarin users, and a lower rate of incident VTE.

Physical Activity and Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer.

PURPOSE: Although the World Health Organization has recommended moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) and some cancers, there are no estimates of lifetime risk of these noncommunicable diseases according to PA levels. We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of CVD and cancers according to PA levels. METHODS: We followed 5807 men and 7252 women in the United States, 45-64 yr old, initially free of CVD and cancer from 1987 through 2012, and used a life table approach to estimate lifetime risks of CVD (coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke) and total cancer according to PA levels: poor (0 min·wk of MVPA), intermediate (1-74 min·wk of VPA or 1-149 min·wk of MVPA), or recommended (≥75 min·wk of VPA or ≥150 min·wk of MVPA). RESULTS: During the 246,886 person-years of follow-up, we documented 4065 CVD and 3509 cancer events and 2062 non-CVD and 2326 noncancer deaths. In men, the lifetime risks of CVD from 45 through 85 yr were 52.7% (95% confidence interval = 49.4-55.5) for poor PA and 45.7% (42.7-48.3) for recommended PA. In women, the respective lifetime risks of CVD were 42.4% (39.5-44.9) and 30.5% (27.5-33.1). Lifetime risks of total cancer were 40.1% (36.9-42.7) for poor PA and 42.6% (39.7-45.2) for recommended activity in men and 31.4% (28.7-33.8) and 30.4% (27.7-32.9), respectively, in women. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with a poor PA level, the PA recommended by the World Health Organization was associated with lower lifetime risk of CVD, but not total cancer, in both men and women.