Patient, caregiver, and oncologist predictions of quality of life in advanced cancer: Accuracy and associations with end-of-life care and caregiver bereavement.

BACKGROUND: Informed treatment decision-making necessitates accurate prognostication, including predictions about quality of life. AIMS: We examined whether oncologists, patients with advanced cancer, and caregivers accurately predict patients' future quality of life and whether these predictions are prospectively associated with end-of-life care and bereavement. MATERIALS & METHODS: We conducted secondary analyses of clinical trial data. Patients with advanced cancer (n = 156), caregivers (n = 156), and oncologists (n = 38) predicted patient quality of life 3 months into the future. Patients subsequently rated their quality of life 3 months later. Medical record data documented chemotherapy and emergency department (ED)/inpatient visits in the 30 days before death (n = 79 decedents). Caregivers self-reported on depression, anxiety, grief, purpose, and regret 7-months post-mortem. In mixed-effects models, patient, caregiver, and oncologist quality-of-life predictions at study entry were used to predict end-of-life care and caregiver outcomes, controlling for patients' quality of life at 3-month follow-up, demographic and clinical characteristics, and nesting within oncologists. RESULTS: Caregivers (P < 0.0001) and oncologists (P = 0.001) predicted lower quality of life than what patients actually experienced. Among decedents, 24.0% received chemotherapy and 54.5% had an ED/inpatient visit. When caregivers' predictions were more negative, patients were less likely to receive chemotherapy (P = 0.028) or have an ED/inpatient visit (P = 0.033), and caregivers reported worse depression (P = 0.002), anxiety (P = 0.019), and grief (P = 0.028) and less purpose in life (P < 0.001) 7-months post-mortem. CONCLUSION: When caregivers have more negative expectations about patients' quality of life, patients receive less intensive end-of-life care, and caregivers report worse bereavement outcomes.

Prognostic accuracy of patients, caregivers, and oncologists in advanced cancer.

BACKGROUND: In caring for patients with advanced cancer, accurate estimation of survival is important for clinical decision making. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of 2-year survival probabilities estimated by oncologists, patients, and caregivers and to identify demographic and clinical factors associated with prognostic accuracy. METHODS: This was a secondary observational analysis of data obtained from a cluster randomized controlled trial. Participants included 38 oncologists, 263 patients with advanced nonhematologic cancer, and 193 of their caregivers from clinics in Sacramento and Western New York. Discrimination within each group (oncologists, patients, caregivers) was evaluated using the C statistic, whereas calibration was assessed by comparing observed to predicted 2-year mortality using the chi-square statistic. RESULTS: The median survival from study entry was 18 months, and 41.8% of patients survived for 2 years. C statistics for oncologists, patients, and caregivers were 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.86), 0.62 (95% CI, 0.55-0.68), and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.65-0.78), respectively; oncologists' predictions were better than the predictions of both patients (P = .001) and caregivers (P = .03). Oncologists also had superior calibration: their predictions of 2-year survival were similar to actual survival (P = .17), whereas patients' (P = .0001) and caregivers' (P = .003) predictions diverged significantly from actual survival. Although most oncologists' predictions were classified as realistic (62.0%), approximately one-half of patients' and caregivers' predictions (50.0% and 46.0%, respectively) were unduly optimistic. Among patients, nonwhite race and higher levels of social well-being predicted undue optimism (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with oncologists, patients and caregivers displayed inferior prognostic discrimination, and their predictions were poorly calibrated, primarily because of overoptimism.