Cumulative cancer locations on prostate biopsy and active surveillance outcomes in the MRI era.

BACKGROUND: To validate the use of a cumulative cancer locations (CCLO) score, a measurement of tumor volume on biopsy, and to develop a novel magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-informed CCLO (mCCLO) score to predict clinical outcomes on active surveillance (AS). METHODS: The CCLO score is a sum of uniquely involved sextants with prostate cancer on diagnostic + confirmatory biopsy. The mCCLO score incorporates MRI findings into the CCLO score. Participants included 1284 individuals enrolled on AS between 1994 and 2022, 343 of whom underwent prostate MRI. The primary outcome was grade reclassification (GR) to grade group ≥2 disease; the secondary outcome was receipt of definitive treatment. RESULTS: Increasing CCLO and mCCLO risk groups were associated with higher risk of GR and undergoing definitive treatment (both p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, increasing mCCLO score was associated with higher risk of GR and receipt of definitive treatment (hazard ratios [HRs] per 1-unit increase: 1.26 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-1.41] and 1.21 [95% CI: 1.07-1.36], respectively). The model using mCCLO score to predict GR (c-index: 0.671; 95% CI: 0.621-0.721) performed at least as well as models using the number of cores positive for cancer (0.664 [0.613-0.715]; p = 0.7) and the maximum percentage of cancer in a core (0.641 [0.585-0.696]; p = 0.14). CONCLUSIONS: The CCLO score is a valid, objective metric to predict GR and receipt of treatment in a large AS cohort. The ability of the MRI-informed mCCLO to predict GR is on par with traditional metrics of tumor volume but is more descriptive and may benefit from greater reproducibility. The mCCLO score can be implemented as a shorthand, informative tool for counseling patients about whether to remain on AS.

Baseline prostate health index risk category and risk category changes during active surveillance predict grade reclassification.

BACKGROUND: It is not known whether baseline prostate health index (PHI) at the initiation of active surveillance (AS) or repeated PHI testing during AS is of clinical value after confirmatory biopsy in AS men followed with multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI). METHODS: We identified 382 AS patients with no greater than Grade Group 1 (GG1) prostate cancer on diagnostic and confirmatory biopsy, at least one mpMRI and PHI test, of which 241 had at least 2 PHI tests. Grade reclassification (GR) was defined as ≥GG2 on surveillance biopsy. PHI risk categories 1 to 4 were as defined by the manufacturer. Associations between baseline PHI risk category or baseline PSA density (PSAD), change in PHI risk categories over time or PSAD changes over time and GR were evaluated with multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusted for age, Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System score and number of positive cores. RESULTS: Men with baseline PHI scores in the highest risk categories had lower rates of GR-free survival (log-rank P < 0.001), as did those who increased in PHI risk category or remained in a high PHI risk category during surveillance (log-rank P = 0.032). On multivariable regression, baseline PHI risk category was a predictor of GR (risk category 4 [vs. 1] hazard ratio [HR] 2.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-5.66, P = 0.002, model C-index 0.764, Akaike Information Criterion [AIC] 797), as were PHI risk category changes over time (risk category 4 [vs. 1] HR 4.20, 95% CI 1.76-10.05, P = 0.002, C-index 0.759, AIC 489). Separate models with baseline PSAD and PSAD changes over time yielded C-indices of 0.709 (AIC 809) and 0.733 (AIC 495) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline PHI risk category and PHI changes over time were both independent predictors of GR after confirmatory biopsy, but the added benefit over PSAD seemed modest. However, baseline PHI and PHI risk category changes provided clinically useful risk stratification for time to GR, so further evaluation of PHI's ability to help reduce the frequency of mpMRI and/or surveillance biopsies with more PHI data points over time may be warranted.

Prostate Cancer Radiological Estimation of Change in Sequential Evaluation (PRECISE) Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scoring to Predict Clinical Outcomes in Active Surveillance for Grade Group 1 Prostate Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether radiological change on serial multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging scored using the Prostate Cancer Radiological Estimation of Change in Sequential Evaluation (PRECISE) Scoring system predicts grade reclassification (GR) at surveillance biopsy in men on active surveillance (AS) with Grade Group 1 (GG1) prostate cancer (PCa). METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed records of 255 men with low-risk PCa on AS with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-informed diagnostic and confirmatory biopsies and studied the subset who had surveillance biopsies (n = 163) within 6months of an interval MRI. RESULTS: We studied 309 PRECISE scores in 255 men. 14% demonstrated radiological progression (PRECISE 4-5) on interval MRI performed within 24months, compared to 34% of those whose interval MRI was performed at a >3-year interval (P = .002). 28% (46/163) of men undergoing surveillance biopsy experienced GR to ≥ GG2 PCa. There was no significant increase in the rate of GR with increasing PRECISE score (PRECISE 1-2: 24%, PRECISE 3: 23%, PRECISE 4-5: 38%; P = .11). There was a significant increase in the rate of GR with increasing PI-RADS score (P < .05). On multivariable analysis, a PI-RADS score of 4-5 was significantly associated with GR compared to men who had a highest PI-RADS ≤3 (OR=1.98 [95% CI: 1.45-3.09, P = .01]). CONCLUSION: In a low-risk AS cohort with limited follow-up, a patient's highest PI-RADS rather than their PRECISE score on interval MRI was predictive of GR on surveillance biopsy.

Identifying Men Who Can Remain on Active Surveillance Despite Biopsy Reclassification to Grade Group 2 Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: Men on active surveillance with Grade Group 1 prostate cancer who reclassify to Grade Group 2 on surveillance biopsy often leave active surveillance. We aimed to identify subgroups of men who can safely remain on active surveillance despite preoperative reclassification to Grade Group 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied 249 active surveillance patients with surveillance biopsies classified as Grade Group 1 or Grade Group 2 who underwent radical prostatectomy. Perineural invasion, cancer volume, linear length and maximum percentage of Gleason pattern 4, and prostate-specific antigen density were evaluated. Radical prostatectomy adverse pathology was defined by any of: pN1; ≥pT3; ≥Grade Group 2 with ≥20% Gleason pattern 4; intraductal carcinoma; large cribriform glands. RESULTS: A multivariable logistic regression model incorporating prostate-specific antigen density and perineural invasion stratified radical prostatectomy adverse pathology risk among Grade Group 1 and Grade Group 2 active surveillance patients. 57% (39/68) of Grade Group 1 men reclassified to Grade Group 2 while on active surveillance had favorable radical prostatectomy pathology. Those without biopsy perineural invasion and with low prostate-specific antigen density were more likely to have favorable radical prostatectomy pathology. CONCLUSIONS: Most Grade Group 1 men who enter active surveillance and subsequently reclassify to Grade Group 2 have favorable findings at radical prostatectomy and can remain on active surveillance. Among patients reclassified to Grade Group 2, those with low prostate-specific antigen density and without perineural invasion had the lowest risk of radical prostatectomy adverse pathology, comparable to (or below) that of Grade Group 1 patients who were not reclassified to Grade Group 2 preoperatively. Prostate-specific antigen density and perineural invasion stratify risk in active surveillance patients reclassified to Grade Group 2 and, if concordant with other clinicopathological and radiographic findings, can enable more patients to remain on active surveillance. Reclassification to Grade Group 2 alone should not disqualify men from remaining on active surveillance.

Positive surgical margins after breast-conserving surgery for ductal carcinoma in-situ: does histologic grade or estrogen receptor status matter?

PURPOSE: DCIS has been shown to have a higher rate of positive margins following breast-conserving surgery (BCS) than invasive breast cancer. We aim to analyze certain factors of DCIS, specifically histologic grade and estrogen receptor (ER) status, in patients with positive surgical margins following BCS to determine if there is an association. METHODS: A retrospective review of our institutional patient registry was performed to identify women with DCIS and microinvasive DCIS who underwent BCS by a single surgeon from 1999 to 2021. Demographics and clinicopathologic characteristics between patients with and without positive surgical margins were compared using chi-square or Student's t-test. We assessed factors associated with positive margins using univariate and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 615 patients evaluated, there was no significant difference in demographics between the patients with and without positive surgical margins. Increasing tumor size was an independent risk factor for margin positivity (P = < 0.001). On univariate analysis both high histologic grade (P = 0.009) and negative ER status (P = < 0.001) were significantly associated with positive surgical margins. However, when adjusted in multivariable analysis, only negative ER status remained significantly associated with margin positivity (OR = 0.39 [95% CI 0.20-0.77]; P = 0.006). CONCLUSION: The study confirms increased tumor size as a risk factor for positive surgical margins. We also demonstrated that ER negative DCIS was independently associated with a higher rate of positive margins after BCS. Given this information, we can modify our surgical approach to reduce rate of positive margins in patients with large-sized ER negative DCIS.

Clinical Significance of Perineural Invasion in Men With Grade Group 1 Prostate Cancer on Active Surveillance.

PURPOSE: We aimed to evaluate the clinical significance of perineural invasion in men on active surveillance for Grade Group 1 prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified 1,969 men with Grade Group 1 prostate cancer and at least 1 follow-up biopsy. A time-dependent Cox model and a logistic regression model were used to assess the association between biopsy-detected perineural invasion and grade reclassification (defined as the detection of Grade Group ≥2 prostate cancer on a surveillance biopsy), and adverse pathology (defined as Grade Group ≥3 ± seminal vesicle invasion ± lymph node involvement) at radical prostatectomy, respectively. RESULTS: The 198 men with perineural invasion detected during active surveillance had lower rates of grade reclassification-free survival than those without perineural invasion (P < .001). On multivariable analysis perineural invasion was significantly associated with grade reclassification (HR 3.25, 95% CI 2.54-4.16, P < .001); an association that persisted in the multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging subset. At radical prostatectomy, men with biopsy-detected perineural invasion had more extraprostatic extension than men without perineural invasion (Relative Risk 1.71, 95% CI 1.15-2.56). However, on multivariable analysis biopsy-detected perineural invasion was not associated with adverse pathology (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.27-1.68, P = .40) and these patients did not exhibit more biochemical recurrence at 5 years (P > .05). CONCLUSIONS: Perineural invasion during active surveillance was associated with grade reclassification. At radical prostatectomy biopsy-detected perineural invasion patients exhibited more extraprostatic extension but biopsy-detected perineural invasion was not independently associated with more adverse pathology. In addition, these patients did not have more biochemical recurrence during follow-up. Perineural invasion should not preclude Grade Group 1 patients from active surveillance but they may warrant more stringent monitoring.

Effectiveness of Homologous and Heterologous COVID-19 Booster Doses Following 1 Ad.26.COV2.S (Janssen [Johnson & Johnson]) Vaccine Dose Against COVID-19-Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Adults - VISION Network, 10 States, December 2021-March 2022.

CDC recommends that all persons aged ≥18 years receive a single COVID-19 vaccine booster dose ≥2 months after receipt of an Ad.26.COV2.S (Janssen [Johnson & Johnson]) adenovirus vector-based primary series vaccine; a heterologous COVID-19 mRNA vaccine is preferred over a homologous (matching) Janssen vaccine for booster vaccination. This recommendation was made in light of the risks for rare but serious adverse events following receipt of a Janssen vaccine, including thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome and Guillain-Barré syndrome† (1), and clinical trial data indicating similar or higher neutralizing antibody response following heterologous boosting compared with homologous boosting (2). Data on real-world vaccine effectiveness (VE) of different booster strategies following a primary Janssen vaccine dose are limited, particularly during the period of Omicron variant predominance. The VISION Network§ determined real-world VE of 1 Janssen vaccine dose and 2 alternative booster dose strategies: 1) a homologous booster (i.e., 2 Janssen doses) and 2) a heterologous mRNA booster (i.e., 1 Janssen dose/1 mRNA dose). In addition, VE of these booster strategies was compared with VE of a homologous booster following mRNA primary series vaccination (i.e., 3 mRNA doses). The study examined 80,287 emergency department/urgent care (ED/UC) visits¶ and 25,244 hospitalizations across 10 states during December 16, 2021-March 7, 2022, when Omicron was the predominant circulating variant.** VE against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated ED/UC encounters was 24% after 1 Janssen dose, 54% after 2 Janssen doses, 79% after 1 Janssen/1 mRNA dose, and 83% after 3 mRNA doses. VE for the same vaccination strategies against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations were 31%, 67%, 78%, and 90%, respectively. All booster strategies provided higher protection than a single Janssen dose against ED/UC visits and hospitalizations during Omicron variant predominance. Vaccination with 1 Janssen/1 mRNA dose provided higher protection than did 2 Janssen doses against COVID-19-associated ED/UC visits and was comparable to protection provided by 3 mRNA doses during the first 120 days after a booster dose. However, 3 mRNA doses provided higher protection against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations than did other booster strategies during the same time interval since booster dose. All adults who have received mRNA vaccines for their COVID-19 primary series vaccination should receive an mRNA booster dose when eligible. Adults who received a primary Janssen vaccine dose should preferentially receive a heterologous mRNA vaccine booster dose ≥2 months later, or a homologous Janssen vaccine booster dose if mRNA vaccine is contraindicated or unavailable. Further investigation of the durability of protection afforded by different booster strategies is warranted.

Genetic Factors Associated with Prostate Cancer Conversion from Active Surveillance to Treatment.

Men diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer (PC) are increasingly electing active surveillance (AS) as their initial management strategy. While this may reduce the side effects of treatment for prostate cancer, many men on AS eventually convert to active treatment. PC is one of the most heritable cancers, and genetic factors that predispose to aggressive tumors may help distinguish men who are more likely to discontinue AS. To investigate this, we undertook a multi-institutional genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 5,222 PC patients and 1,139 other patients from replication cohorts, all of whom initially elected AS and were followed over time for the potential outcome of conversion from AS to active treatment. In the GWAS we detected 18 variants associated with conversion, 15 of which were not previously associated with PC risk. With a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS), we found two genes associated with conversion (MAST3, p = 6.9×10-7 and GAB2, p = 2.0×10-6). Moreover, increasing values of a previously validated 269-variant genetic risk score (GRS) for PC was positively associated with conversion (e.g., comparing the highest to the two middle deciles gave a hazard ratio [HR] = 1.13; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]= 0.94-1.36); whereas, decreasing values of a 36-variant GRS for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels were positively associated with conversion (e.g., comparing the lowest to the two middle deciles gave a HR = 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04-1.50). These results suggest that germline genetics may help inform and individualize the decision of AS-or the intensity of monitoring on AS-versus treatment for the initial management of patients with low-risk PC.

Association of prostate cancer polygenic risk score with number and laterality of tumor cores in active surveillance patients.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer (PCa) is characterized by its tendency to be multifocal. However, few studies have investigated the endogenous factors that explain the multifocal disease. The primary objective of the current study is to test whether inherited PCa risk is associated with multifocal tumors in PCa patients. METHODS: Subjects in this study were PCa patients of European ancestry undergoing active surveillance at Johns Hopkins Hospital (N = 805) and NorthShore University HealthSystem (N = 432). The inherited risk was measured by genetic risk score (GRS), an odds ratio-weighted and population-standardized polygenic risk score based on known risk-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. PCa multifocality was indirectly measured by the number and laterality of positive tumor cores from a 12-core systematic biopsy. RESULTS: In the combined cohort, 35.7% and 66.3% of patients had ≥2 tumor cores at the initial diagnostic biopsy and on at least one subsequent surveillance biopsy, respectively. For tumor laterality, 7.8% and 47.8% of patients had bilateral tumor cores at diagnostic and surveillance biopsies, respectively. We found, for the first time, that patients with higher numbers of positive cores at diagnostic and surveillance biopsies, respectively, had significantly higher mean GRS values; p = .01 and p = 5.94E-04. Additionally, patients with bilateral tumors at diagnostic and surveillance biopsies, respectively, had significantly higher mean GRS values than those with unilateral tumors; p = .04 and p = .01. In contrast, no association was found between GRS and maximum core length of tumor or tumor grade at diagnostic/surveillance biopsies (all p > .05). Finally, we observed a modest trend that patients with higher GRS quartiles had a higher risk for tumor upgrading on surveillance biopsies. The trend, however, was not statistically significant (p > .05). CONCLUSIONS: The associations of GRS with two measurements of PCa multifocality (core numbers and laterality) provide novel and consistent evidence for the link between inherited PCa risk and multifocal tumors.

Transperineal Prostate Biopsy Improves the Detection of Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer among Men on Active Surveillance.

PURPOSE: Transperineal prostate biopsy offers improved sampling of the anterior prostate compared to the transrectal approach. The objective of this study was to determine if transperineal prostate biopsy is associated with an increased incidence of cancer upgrading among men on active surveillance for very low or low risk prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Our active surveillance registry was queried to identify patients who underwent a surveillance biopsy following the introduction of transperineal prostate biopsy at our institution. Patients were dichotomized by the type of biopsy performed. The baseline characteristics and rates of cancer upgrading were compared between groups. RESULTS: Between November 2017 and June 2020, 790 men with very low or low risk prostate cancer underwent a surveillance biopsy. In total, 59 of 279 men (21.2%) in the transperineal prostate biopsy group were upgraded to grade group ≥2 as compared to 75 of 511 (14.7%) in the transrectal biopsy group (p=0.01). Among patients who were upgraded to grade group ≥2, 26 of 59 (44%) had grade group ≥2 detected in the anterior/transition zone with transperineal prostate biopsy compared to 14 of 75 (18.7%) with transrectal biopsy (p=0.01). Additionally, 17 of 279 men (6.1%) who underwent transperineal prostate biopsy were upgraded to grade group ≥3 vs 17 of 511 (3.3%) who underwent transrectal biopsy (p=0.05). After adjusting for age, prostate specific antigen density, use of magnetic resonance imaging, and number of prior transrectal biopsies, transperineal prostate biopsy was significantly associated with upgrading to grade group ≥2 (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.11-2.19, p=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Among men on active surveillance for very low or low risk prostate cancer, transperineal prostate biopsy was associated with an increased likelihood of upgrading to clinically significant prostate cancer. This is likely due to improved sampling of the anterior prostate with the transperineal approach.

Prostate Health Index and multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging to predict prostate cancer grade reclassification in active surveillance.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the value of combining the Prostate Health Index (PHI) and multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI), tools which have previously been shown to be independently predictive of prostate cancer (PCa) grade reclassification (GR; Gleason score >6), for the purpose of predicting GR at the next surveillance biopsy to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies for men in PCa active surveillance (AS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between 2014 and 2019, we retrospectively identified 253 consecutive men in the Johns Hopkins AS programme who had mpMRI and PHI followed by a systematic ± targeted biopsy. PHI and PHI density (PHID) were evaluated across Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System version 2.0 (PI-RADSv2) scores and compared to those with and without GR. Next, the negative predictive value (NPV) and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were calculated to compare the diagnostic value of PI-RADSv2 score combined with PHI, PHID, or prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) for GR using their respective first quartile as a cut-off. RESULTS: Of the 253 men, 38 men (15%) had GR. Men with GR had higher PHI values (40.7 vs 32.0, P = 0.001), PHID (0.83 vs 0.57, P = 0.007), and PSAD (0.12 vs 0.10, P = 0.037). A PI-RADSv2 ≤3 alone had a NPV of 91.6% for GR (AUC 0.67). Using a PHI cut-off of 25.6 in addition to PI-RADSv2 ≤3, the NPV and AUC were both increased to 98% and 0.70, respectively. Using a PSAD cut-off of 0.07 ng/mL/mL with PI-RADSv2 had an AUC of 0.69 and NPV of 95.4%. PHI and PI-RADSv2 together could have avoided 20% of biopsies at the cost of missing 2.6% of GRs. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of PHI and mpMRI can aid in the prediction of GR in men on AS and may be useful for decreasing the burden of surveillance prostate biopsies.

Utility of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging in the risk stratification of men with Grade Group 1 prostate cancer on active surveillance.

OBJECTIVE: To assess if the adoption of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) in active surveillance (AS) has improved the identification of occult higher-grade prostate cancer (PCa). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively identified men from the Johns Hopkins AS registry enrolled since 2013 (year of mpMRI adoption) with Grade Group (GG) 1 PCa and who underwent a single mpMRI. Men in this group were dichotomised by the presence (n = 207) or absence (negative mpMRI, n = 225) of one or more lesions with a Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) score of ≥ 3. Both groups were compared to a third cohort of men with GG1 PCa enrolled in AS prior to 2013 (pre-mpMRI era, n = 669). The risk of upgrading to GG ≥ 2 PCa on follow-up biopsies (performed with or without MRI targeting) was evaluated among the groups using survival analysis. RESULTS: Men in both mpMRI groups underwent a median (interquartile range [IQR]) of 2 (2-3) biopsies separated by a median (IQR) interval of 13 (12-16) months, whereas men in the pre-MRI era underwent a median (IQR) of 3 (2-5) biopsies, separated by a median (IQR) interval of 12 (12-14) months. The 2- and 4-year upgrade-free survival rates were 93% and 83%, 74% and 59%; and, 87% and 76% for the negative mpMRI, PI-RADS ≥ 3, and pre-mpMRI-era groups, respectively (P < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, both mpMRI groups had significantly different risk of upgrading compared to pre-mpMRI-era group (negative mpMRI group: hazard ratio [HR] 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39-0.95, P = 0.03; PI-RADS ≥ 3 group: HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.36-2.82, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: mpMRI improves the risk stratification of men on AS and should be used to aid enrolment and monitoring decisions.

Active Surveillance of Grade Group 1 Prostate Cancer: Long-term Outcomes from a Large Prospective Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Active surveillance (AS) is the preferred management option for most men with grade group (GG) 1 prostate cancer (PCa). Questions persist regarding long-term outcomes and the optimal approach to AS. OBJECTIVE: To determine survival and metastatic outcomes in AS patients. Secondary objectives were to measure the cumulative incidence and association of patient-level factors on biopsy grade reclassification. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A prospective, active, open-enrollment cohort study was conducted from 1995 through July 2018 at a tertiary-care academic institution. Patients with very-low-risk or low-risk PCa were enrolled. INTERVENTION: AS with semiannual prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and digital rectal examination, serial prostate biopsy, and multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The 10- and 15-yr cumulative incidences of primary and secondary outcomes were determined. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Overall, 1818 men were monitored on AS for a median of 5.0yr (interquartile range 2.0-9.0). There were 88 non-PCa deaths, four PCa deaths, and one additional case of metastasis. The cumulative incidence of PCa-specific mortality or metastasis was 0.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.04-0.6%) at both 10 and 15yr. The 5-, 10-, and 15-yr cumulative incidences of biopsy grade reclassification were 21%, 30%, and 32%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, biopsy grade reclassification was associated with older age, African-American race, PSA density, and increased cancer volume on biopsy, and men who underwent mpMRI prior to enrollment were less likely to undergo grade reclassification. Our selection and monitoring are more stringent than many other contemporary AS programs. CONCLUSIONS: In a large, single-institution, prospective AS cohort, the risk of cancer death or metastasis was <1% over long-term follow-up. Consistent with clinical guidelines, these data support the use of AS for the management of most men diagnosed with GG1 PCa. PATIENT SUMMARY: This study investigated long-term outcomes in patients with grade group 1 prostate cancer managed with active surveillance (AS). Ten years after enrolling in AS, the risk of metastasis or death from prostate cancer was <1%, while 48% of men switched to treatment. Patients who underwent multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI)/ultrasound-fusion targeted biopsy prior to enrollment were less likely to experience biopsy grade reclassification during follow-up, suggesting a role for mpMRI as part of a comprehensive risk assessment to confirm AS eligibility. These findings support the safety of AS in most men with grade group 1 prostate cancer, but specific outcomes may differ in programs with less intensive monitoring.

Evaluation of Apparent Diffusion Coefficient as a Predictor of Grade Reclassification in Men on Active Surveillance for Prostate Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) on initial multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) and biopsy grade reclassification (GR) to grade group (GG) ≥2 prostate cancer (CaP) in men on active surveillance (AS) with GG 1 CaP. METHODS: We retrospectively identified 242 AS patients with reported ADC values on their initial mpMRI. ADC value from the index lesion was assessed as an independent predictor of GR using a Cox model. To ease clinical interpretation, we used a log-rank test to establish an ADC cutoff of 1128 × 10-6 mm2/s for Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: Of the 242 men, 70 underwent GR following initial mpMRI, of which 26 (37%) had GR at the index lesion. There was no significant difference in the median interval between biopsies for men with and without GR (P >.9). Men with GR had significantly lower median ADC than those without GR (P = .01). In multivariable analysis adjusting for age, prostate-specific antigen density, and National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk group, a 100-unit decrease in ADC was associated with a 12% increase in the risk of GR (HR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.01-1.22, P = .03). Two- and 4-year rates of freedom from GR were significantly lower for men with ADC <1128 × 10-6 mm2/s vs ADC ≥1128 × 10-6 mm2/s (62% and 42% vs 78% and 68%, respectively; P <.001). CONCLUSION: For AS patients, lower ADC on initial mpMRI index lesion is associated with increased risk of GR to GG ≥2 CaP and would be a useful component of multivariable risk prediction tools.

PTEN status assessment in the Johns Hopkins active surveillance cohort.

BACKGROUND: Up to half of men with Gleason score 6 (GS6) prostate cancers initially managed with active surveillance (AS) will eventually require definitive therapy, usually due to tumor grade reclassification during follow-up. We examined the association between PTEN status on biopsy and subsequent clinicopathologic outcomes in men with GS6 cancers who enrolled in AS. METHODS: We performed a case-control study of men enrolled in the Johns Hopkins AS cohort with diagnostic biopsy tissue available for immunohistochemical (IHC) staining. IHC was performed for PTEN using genetically validated protocols for all patients. Cases included men who underwent grade reclassification to GS ≥ 3 + 4 = 7 on biopsy within 2 years of follow-up (i.e., early reclassification) or reclassification to GS ≥ 4 + 3 = 7 on biopsy or radical prostatectomy during follow-up (i.e., extreme reclassification). Control patients were diagnosed with GS6 cancer and monitored on AS for at least 8 years without undergoing biopsy reclassification. RESULTS: Among 67 cases with adequate tissue, 31 men underwent early reclassification and 36 men underwent extreme reclassification. Cases were compared to 65 control patients with adequate tissue for assessment. On initial prostate biopsy, cases were older (median age 67 vs. 65, p = 0.024) and were less likely to meet very-low-risk criteria (64 vs 79%, p = 0.042) as compared to controls. Although not statistically significant, PTEN loss was observed in only 1 (1.5%) of 65 controls as compared to 6 (9%) of 67 cases (p = 0.062). CONCLUSIONS: PTEN loss was rare among men with GS6 prostate cancer enrolled in AS at Johns Hopkins. Despite this, PTEN loss was more frequent among men who underwent early or extreme reclassification to higher-grade cancer as compared to controls. Additional studies in larger low-risk cohorts may better elucidate a potential role for PTEN in selecting patients for AS.

Older Age Predicts Biopsy and Radical Prostatectomy Grade Reclassification to Aggressive Prostate Cancer in Men on Active Surveillance.

PURPOSE: Age at prostate cancer diagnosis has been positively associated with prostate cancer specific mortality and in men on active surveillance with a higher risk of biopsy grade reclassification to Gleason score 3 + 4 or greater (Grade Group 2 or greater). However, to our knowledge the association between age and biopsy grade reclassification to an aggressive phenotype (Gleason score 4 + 3 or greater [Grade Group 3 or greater]) has not been explored. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 1995 to 2016 we followed 1,625 men 41 to 81 years old with NCCN® (National Comprehensive Cancer Network®) very low (68%) or low (32%) risk prostate cancer on active surveillance. We determined the rate of biopsy grade reclassification to Grade Group 3 or greater. Competing risk analysis was applied to evaluate the association between age at enrollment and the risk of biopsy grade reclassification. Additionally, in men who underwent radical prostatectomy after biopsy grade reclassification we assessed the rate of radical prostatectomy grade reclassification (ie radical prostatectomy Grade Group greater than biopsy Grade Group). RESULTS: The 5-year incidence of biopsy grade reclassification to Grade Group 3 or greater was 4%, 7% and 14% in men younger than 60, 60 to 69 and 70 years old or older, respectively (p <0.001). On univariate analysis older age was associated with biopsy grade reclassification to Grade Group 3 or greater (per 10-year increase HR 2.43, p <0.001). On multivariable analysis adjusting for year of diagnosis, race, prostate specific antigen density and cancer volume at diagnosis older age remained associated with biopsy grade reclassification to Grade Group 3 or greater (per 10-year increase HR 2.19, p <0.001). In men who underwent radical prostatectomy after biopsy grade reclassification those who were older had a higher rate of radical prostatectomy grade reclassification (p <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In men on active surveillance older age at diagnosis was positively associated with biopsy grade reclassification to Grade Group 3 or greater and radical prostatectomy grade reclassification. These observations imply that for many older men, active surveillance as opposed to watchful waiting remains a more appropriate management strategy.

Germline Mutations in ATM and BRCA1/2 Are Associated with Grade Reclassification in Men on Active Surveillance for Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Mutations in DNA repair genes are associated with aggressive prostate cancer (PCa). OBJECTIVE: To assess whether germline mutations are associated with grade reclassification (GR) in patients undergoing active surveillance (AS). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Two independent cohorts of PCa patients undergoing AS; 882 and 329 patients from Johns Hopkins and North Shore, respectively. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Germline DNA was sequenced for DNA repair genes, including BRCA1/2 and ATM (three-gene panel). Pathogenicity of mutations was defined according to the American College of Medical Genetics guidelines. Association of mutation carrier status and GR was evaluated by a competing risk analysis. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Of 1211, 289 patients experienced GR; 11 of 26 with mutations in a three-gene panel and 278 of 1185 noncarriers; adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=1.96 (95% confidence interval [CI]=1.004-3.84, p=0.04). Reclassification occurred in six of 11 carriers of BRCA2 mutations and 283 of 1200 noncarriers; adjusted HR=2.74 (95% CI=1.26-5.96, p=0.01). The carrier rates of pathogenic mutations in the three-gene panel, and BRCA2 alone, were significantly higher in those reclassified (3.8% and 2.1%, respectively) than in those not reclassified (1.6% and 0.5%, respectively; p=0.04 and 0.03, respectively). Carrier rates for BRCA2 were greater for those reclassified from Gleason score (GS) 3+3 at diagnosis to GS ≥4+3 (4.1% vs 0.7%, p=0.01) versus GS 3+4 (2.1% vs 0.6%; p=0.03). Results are limited by the small number of mutation carriers and an intermediate end point. CONCLUSIONS: Mutation status of BRCA1/2 and ATM is associated with GR among men undergoing AS. PATIENT SUMMARY: Men on active surveillance with inherited mutations in BRCA1/2 and ATM are more likely to harbor aggressive prostate cancer.

Evaluating the impact of length of time from diagnosis to surgery in patients with unfavourable intermediate-risk to very-high-risk clinically localised prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of length of time from diagnostic biopsy to radical prostatectomy (RP) on oncological outcomes amongst men diagnosed with unfavourable intermediate- to very-high-risk clinically localised prostate cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of men with a diagnosis of grade group (GG) ≥3 prostate cancer on biopsy, who underwent RP within 6 months of diagnosis, at our institution between 2005 and 2018. We assessed patient demographics, pre-biopsy disease characteristics, and receipt of neoadjuvant therapy. We categorised time between biopsy and RP into two intervals: <3 and 3-6 months. For each GG, we compared receipt of adjuvant therapy, pathological outcomes at RP (positive surgical margin [PSM], extraprostatic extension [EPE], seminal vesicle invasion [SVI], and lymph node involvement [LNI]), risk of 2- and 5-year biochemical recurrence-free survival (BCRFS), and 2-, 5-, and 10-year metastasis-free survival (MFS) between patients who underwent RP at <3 vs 3-6 months after diagnosis. RESULTS: Amongst 2303 men who met the study inclusion criteria, 1244 (54%) had GG 3, 608 (26%) had GG 4, and 451 (20%) had GG 5 disease. In all, 72% underwent RP at <3 months after diagnosis. For each diagnostic GG, there was no significant difference in rates of adjuvant therapy, PSM, EPE, SVI, or LNI in men who had RP at <3 vs 3-6 months after diagnosis. In all, 1568 men had follow-up after RP of >1 year. For each diagnostic GG, there was no significant difference in 2- and 5-year BCRFS between patients who had RP at <3 vs 3-6 months after diagnosis (GG 3: 78% vs 83% and 69% vs 66%, respectively, P = 0.6; GG 4: 68% vs 74% and 51% vs 57%, respectively, P = 0.4; GG 5: 58% vs 74% and 48% vs 54%, respectively, P = 0.2). Similarly, for each diagnostic GG, there was no significant difference in 2-, 5-, and 10-year MFS between patients who had RP at <3 vs 3-6 months after diagnosis, although we were not able to calculate 10-year MFS for patients with GG 5 disease due to limited follow-up in that group (GG 3: 98%, 92%, and 84% vs 97%, 95%, and 91%, respectively, P = 0.4; GG 4: 97%, 90%, and 72% vs 94%, 91%, and 81%, respectively, P = 0.8; GG 5: 89% and 81% vs 91% and 71%, respectively, P = 0.9). CONCLUSIONS: Waiting for RP up to 6 months after diagnosis is not associated with adverse outcomes amongst patients with unfavourable intermediate- to very-high-risk prostate cancer.

A comprehensive evaluation of CHEK2 germline mutations in men with prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Germline mutations in CHEK2 have been associated with prostate cancer (PCa) risk. Our objective is to examine whether germline pathogenic CHEK2 mutations can differentiate risk of lethal from indolent PCa. METHODS: A case-case study of 703 lethal PCa patients and 1455 patients with low-risk localized PCa of European, African, and Chinese origin was performed. Germline DNA samples from these patients were sequenced for CHEK2. Mutation carrier rates and their association with lethal PCa were analyzed using the Fisher exact test and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS: In the entire study population, 40 (1.85%) patients were identified as carrying one of 15 different germline CHEK2 pathogenic or likely pathogenic mutations. CHEK2 mutations were detected in 16 (2.28%) of 703 lethal PCa patients compared with 24 (1.65%) of 1455 low-risk PCa patients (P = 0.31). No association was found between CHEK2 mutation status and early-diagnosis or PCa-specific survival time. However, the most common mutation in CHEK2, c.1100delC (p.T367 fs), had a significantly higher carrier rate (1.28%) in lethal PCa patients than low-risk PCa patients of European American origin (0.16%), P = 0.0038. The estimated Odds Ratio of this mutation for lethal PCa was 7.86. The carrier rate in lethal PCa was also significantly higher than that (0.46%) in 32 461 non-Finnish European subjects from the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC) (P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: While overall CHEK2 mutations were not significantly more common in men with lethal compared to low-risk PCa, the specific CHEK2 mutation, c.1100delC, appears to contribute to an increased risk of lethal PCa in European American men.

Optimizing active surveillance strategies to balance the competing goals of early detection of grade progression and minimizing harm from biopsies.

BACKGROUND: Active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer includes follow-up with serial prostate biopsies. The optimal biopsy frequency during follow-up has not been determined. The goal of this investigation was to use longitudinal AS biopsy data to assess whether the frequency of biopsy could be reduced without substantially prolonging the time to the detection of disease with a Gleason score ≥ 7. METHODS: With data from 1375 men with low-risk prostate cancer enrolled in AS at Johns Hopkins, a hidden Markov model was developed to estimate the probability of undersampling at diagnosis, the annual probability of grade progression, and the 10-year cumulative probability of reclassification or progression to Gleason score ≥ 7. It simulated 1024 potential AS biopsy strategies for the 10 years after diagnosis. For each of these strategies, the model predicted the mean delay in the detection of disease with a Gleason score ≥ 7. RESULTS: The model estimated the 10-year cumulative probability of reclassification from a Gleason score of 6 to a Gleason score ≥ 7 to be 40.0%. The probability of undersampling at diagnosis was 9.8%, and the annual progression probability for men with a Gleason score of 6 was 4.0%. On the basis of these estimates, a simulation of an annual biopsy strategy estimated the mean time to the detection of disease with a Gleason score ≥ 7 to be 14.1 months; however, several strategies eliminated biopsies with only small delays (<12 months) in detecting grade progression. CONCLUSIONS: Although annual biopsy for low-risk men on AS is associated with the shortest time to the detection of disease with a Gleason score ≥ 7, several alternative strategies may allow less frequent biopsying without sizable delays in detecting grade progression. Cancer 2018;124:698-705. © 2017 American Cancer Society.