External validation of the Oldham composite Covid-19 associated mortality model (OCCAM), a prognostic model for death in patients hospitalised with Covid-19.

OBJECTIVE: External validation of the Oldham Composite Covid-19 associated Mortality Model (OCCAM), a prognostic model for Covid-19 mortality in hospitalised patients comprised of age, history of hypertension, current or previous malignancy, admission platelet count < 150 × 103/µL, admission CRP ≥ 100 µg/mL, acute kidney injury (AKI), and radiographic evidence of > 50% total lung field infiltrates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Retrospective study assessing discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration of OCCAM for death in hospital or within 30 days of discharge. 300 adults admitted to six district general and teaching hospitals in North West England for treatment of Covid-19 between September 2020 and February 2021 were included. RESULTS: Two hundred and ninety-seven patients were included in the validation cohort analysis, with a mortality rate of 32.8%. The c-statistic was 0.794 (95% confidence interval 0.742-0.847) vs. 0.805 (95% confidence interval 0.766 - 0.844) in the development cohort. Visual inspection of calibration plots demonstrate excellent calibration across risk groups, with a calibration slope for the external validation cohort of 0.963. CONCLUSION: The OCCAM model is an effective prognostic tool that can be utilised at the time of initial patient assessment to aid decisions around admission and discharge, use of therapeutics, and shared decision-making with patients. Clinicians should remain aware of the need for ongoing validation of all Covid-19 prognostic models in light of changes in host immunity and emerging variants.

Predictive factors, preventive implications, and personalized surgical strategies for bone metastasis from lung cancer: population-based approach with a comprehensive cancer center-based study.

Background: Bone metastasis (BM) and skeletal-related events (SREs) happen to advanced lung cancer (LC) patients without warning. LC-BM patients are often passive to BM diagnosis and surgical treatment. It is necessary to guide the diagnosis and treatment paradigm for LC-BM patients from reactive medicine toward predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM) step by step. Methods: Two independent study cohorts including LC-BM patients were analyzed, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cohort (n = 203942) and the prospective Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center (FUSCC) cohort (n = 59). The epidemiological trends of BM in LC patients were depicted. Risk factors for BM were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model. An individualized nomogram was developed for BM risk stratification. Personalized surgical strategies and perioperative care were described for FUSCC cohort. Results: The BM incidence rate in LC patients grew (from 17.53% in 2010 to 19.05% in 2016). Liver metastasis was a significant risk factor for BM (OR = 4.53, 95% CI = 4.38-4.69) and poor prognosis (HR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.25-1.32). The individualized nomogram exhibited good predictive performance for BM risk stratification (AUC = 0.784, 95%CI = 0.781-0.786). Younger patients, males, patients with high invasive LC, and patients with other distant site metastases should be prioritized for BM prevention. Spine is the most common site of BM, causing back pain (91.5%), pathological vertebral fracture (27.1%), and difficult walking (25.4%). Spinal surgery with personalized spinal reconstruction significantly relieved pain and improved daily activities. Perioperative inflammation, immune, and nutrition abnormities warrant personalized managements. Radiotherapy needs to be recommended for specific postoperative individuals. Conclusions: The presence of liver metastasis is a strong predictor of LC-BM. It is recommended to take proactive measures to prevent BM and its SREs, particularly in young patients, males, high invasive LC, and LC with liver metastasis. BM surgery and perioperative management are personalized and required. In addition, adjuvant radiation following separation surgery must also be included in PPPM-guided management. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-022-00270-9.

Patient characteristics and predictors of mortality in 470 adults admitted to a district general hospital in England with Covid-19.

Understanding risk factors for death from Covid-19 is key to providing good quality clinical care. We assessed the presenting characteristics of the 'first wave' of patients with Covid-19 at Royal Oldham Hospital, UK and undertook logistic regression modelling to investigate factors associated with death. Of 470 patients admitted, 169 (36%) died. The median age was 71 years (interquartile range 57-82), and 255 (54.3%) were men. The most common comorbidities were hypertension (n = 218, 46.4%), diabetes (n = 143, 30.4%) and chronic neurological disease (n = 123, 26.1%). The most frequent complications were acute kidney injury (AKI) (n = 157, 33.4%) and myocardial injury (n = 21, 4.5%). Forty-three (9.1%) patients required intubation and ventilation, and 39 (8.3%) received non-invasive ventilation. Independent risk factors for death were increasing age (odds ratio (OR) per 10 year increase above 40 years 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.57-2.27), hypertension (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.10-2.70), cancer (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.27-3.81), platelets <150 × 103/µl (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.13-3.30), C-reactive protein ≥100 µg/ml (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.05-2.68), >50% chest radiograph infiltrates (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.16-3.77) and AKI (OR 2.60, 95% CI 1.64-4.13). There was no independent association between death and gender, ethnicity, deprivation level, fever, SpO2/FiO2, lymphopoenia or other comorbidities. These findings will inform clinical and shared decision making, including use of respiratory support and therapeutic agents.

Travelling wave solutions of the reaction-diffusion mathematical model of glioblastoma growth: an Abel equation based approach.

We consider quasi-stationary (travelling wave type) solutions to a nonlinear reaction-diffusion equation with arbitrary, autonomous coefficients, describing the evolution of glioblastomas, aggressive primary brain tumors that are characterized by extensive infiltration into the brain and are highly resistant to treatment. The second order nonlinear equation describing the glioblastoma growth through travelling waves can be reduced to a first order Abel type equation. By using the integrability conditions for the Abel equation several classes of exact travelling wave solutions of the general reaction-diffusion equation that describes glioblastoma growth are obtained, corresponding to different forms of the product of the diffusion and reaction functions. The solutions are obtained by using the Chiellini lemma and the Lemke transformation, respectively, and the corresponding equations represent generalizations of the classical Fisher-Kolmogorov equation. The biological implications of two classes of solutions are also investigated by using both numerical and semi-analytical methods for realistic values of the biological parameters.

Radiofrequency ablation of recurrent fibromatosis.

Radiofrequency (RF) ablation has received increasing attention as a promising technique for treating focal malignant disease and is a safe and effective technique for tumor control. The authors report a case in which RF ablation was performed in a woman with recurrent fibromatosis of the lower back who refused further surgery. Satisfactory results were obtained at long-term follow-up, with no recurrence of tumor.

Randomized controlled trial to compare the dose of adjuvant chemotherapy after curative resection of hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Adjuvant locoregional chemotherapy has been shown to be useful to prevent recurrence after curative resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in some retrospective studies. Our aim was to compare the dose effect in the prevention of tumor recurrence. METHODS: A prospective randomized controlled trial was conducted in patients with curative resection of HCC; they were given either one intra-arterial dose of cisplatin/lipiodol, or received four doses, once every 3 months. The rates of recurrence, disease-free and overall survival were compared. RESULTS: During a median follow up of 818 days, 21 patients received one dose and 19 received four doses, with 10 (47.6%) and eight (42.1%) recurrences, respectively. The 1-year, 2-year and 3-year disease-free survival rates were 71%, 54% and 44% for the one-dose group and 74%, 60% and 40% for the four-dose group (P = 0.78). The respective overall survival rates were 85%, 74%, 55% and 84%, 71%, 40% (P = 0.64). The only prognostic factor was presence of vascular permeation. The side-effects were mild and tolerable. CONCLUSIONS: There is no significant difference in the survival rates between the two groups. Adjuvant chemotherapy may not be useful.