The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Cardiac Procedure Wait List Mortality in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: The novel SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically altered the delivery of healthcare services, resulting in significant referral pattern changes, delayed presentations, and procedural delays. Our objective was to determine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in patients awaiting commonly performed cardiac procedures. METHODS: Clinical and administrative data sets were linked to identify all adults referred for: (1) percutaneous coronary intervention; (2) coronary artery bypass grafting; (3) valve surgery; and (4) transcatheter aortic valve implantation, from January 2014 to September 2020 in Ontario, Canada. Piece-wise regression models were used to determine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on referrals and procedural volume. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the effect of the pandemic on waitlist mortality for the 4 procedures. RESULTS: We included 584,341 patients who were first-time referrals for 1 of the 4 procedures, of whom 37,718 (6.4%) were referred during the pandemic. The pandemic period was associated with a significant decline in the number of referrals and procedures completed compared with the prepandemic period. Referral during the pandemic period was a significant predictor for increased all-cause mortality for the percutaneous coronary intervention (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.47-2.27) and coronary artery bypass grafting (hazard ratio, 1.96; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-3.01), but not for surgical valve or transcatheter aortic valve implantation referrals. Procedural wait times were shorter during the pandemic period compared with the prepandemic period. CONCLUSIONS: There was a significant decrease in referrals and procedures completed for cardiac procedures during the pandemic period. Referral during the pandemic was associated with increased all-cause mortality while awaiting coronary revascularization.

Predictors of cumulative cost for patients with severe aortic stenosis referred for surgical or transcatheter aortic valve replacement: a population-based study in Ontario, Canada.

AIMS: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) as an alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) has transformed severe aortic stenosis (AS) management. Our aim was understand AS cost drivers from referral to 1-year post-procedure. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified patients referred for either TAVR/SAVR between 1 April 2015 and 31 March 2018, with follow-up until 31 March 2019 in Ontario, Canada. We stratified costs into (i) a referral phase, (ii) a procedural phase from the procedure date to 60 days post-procedure, and (iii) post-procedure phase from 61 days to 1 year. Multivariable regression modelling using generalized linear models with a log link gamma distribution was used to identify cost drivers in each phase. The study cohort included 12 086 AS patients; 4832 were referred for TAVR and 7254 were referred for SAVR. The median cost for TAVR was higher than SAVR in the referral ($3593 vs. $2944) and post-procedural ($5938 vs. $3257) phases. In contrast, for the procedural phase, SAVR had a median cost of $29 756 vs. $27 907 for TAVR. Predictors of high cost in the referral phase were longer wait-time, and an urgent in-hospital procedure. In the procedural phase, procedural complications were the major drivers of higher cost. In the post-procedural phase, patient co-morbidities were the major drivers, specifically dialysis, liver disease, cancer, peripheral vascular disease, and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: We identified distinct patterns of cost accumulation and modifiable drivers for SAVR compared with TAVR; these drivers may guide clinical and health policy decisions to make AS care more efficient.

Predictors of Long-term Cardiovascular Versus Non-cardiovascular Mortality and Repeat Intervention in Patients Having Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

There is a paucity of literature characterizing the risk of long-term mortality and reintervention after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Addressing this gap has become increasingly relevant with the inclusion of intermediate and low surgical risk patients and the need for data to inform their long-term management. We sought to investigate the long-term trends and predictors of cardiovascular versus noncardiovascular mortality as well as reintervention in post-TAVI patients. Our cohort consisted of 5,406 patients who underwent TAVI in Ontario, Canada from 2011 to 2018. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis to estimate 7-year all-cause mortality and a Cox proportional hazard model to identify demographic, co-morbid, and procedural predictors. Similarly, cumulative incidence functions were used to estimate cardiovascular versus noncardiovascular mortality at 5 years, with predictors identified through Fine-Gray models. The Kaplan-Meier estimate for 7-year all-cause mortality in our cohort was 67%; this was driven by a number of co-morbidities including congestive heart failure and liver disease. We found that cardiovascular death was more likely for approximately the first 2 years post-TAVI whereas noncardiovascular death was more likely from this point to the end of the study. We identified a number of factors that uniquely modified the risk of either cardiovascular or noncardiovascular mortality. Only 1.6% of patients who underwent repeat intervention. The distinct factors associated with cardiovascular versus noncardiovascular death suggest different approaches to short-term and long-term surveillance of patients post-TAVI by both the heart team and primary care providers.