Eliminación de la hepatitis C en usuarios de drogas inyectadas en México durante la pandemia de COVID-19 / Hepatitis C elimination among people who inject drugs in Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic

Resumen En 2019, México fue uno de los primeros países en Latinoamérica en comprometer recursos para eliminar la hepatitis C antes de 2030. Un año después de este compromiso, la pandemia mundial de COVID-19 desvió la atención hacia las necesidades inmediatas de salud para combatir la propagación de esta última. Como resultado, los esfuerzos para implementar programas de prevención y manejo de la hepatitis C se suspendieron indefinidamente. Asimismo, las poblaciones con alto riesgo de contraer el virus de la hepatitis C y que representan el mayor peso de la epidemia nacional, como las personas que se inyectan drogas y las personas que viven con infección por el virus de la inmunodeficia humana, permanecen expuestas a disparidades de salud extremas que potencialmente se han exacerbado durante la pandemia de COVID-19. En este artículo discutimos el impacto potencial que la pandemia de COVID-19 ha tenido sobre los esfuerzos de eliminación de la hepatitis C en México y la necesidad urgente de reanudarlos, ya que sin ellos los objetivos de eliminación no se alcanzarán en el país en 2030.

Abstract In 2019, Mexico was one of the first countries in Latin America to commit resources to achieve hepatitis C elimination by 2030. One year after this commitment, the global COVID-19 pandemic diverted attention to address immediate health needs to combat the spread of the disease. As a result, efforts to implement hepatitis C prevention and management programs were indefinitely postponed. Furthermore, populations at high risk of contracting the hepatitis C virus (HCV) and who bear the greatest burden of HCV national epidemic, including people who inject drugs and people who live with human immunodeficiency virus infection, remain exposed to extreme health disparities, which have potentially been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we discuss the potential impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on HCV elimination efforts in Mexico and the urgent need to resume them, since without these efforts, HCV elimination goals are likely not be achieved in the country by 2030.

Safe reopening of college campuses during COVID-19: The University of California experience in Fall 2020.

BACKGROUND: Epidemics of COVID-19 in student populations at universities were a key concern for the 2020-2021 school year. The University of California (UC) System developed a set of recommendations to reduce campus infection rates. SARS-CoV-2 test results are summarized for the ten UC campuses during the Fall 2020 term. METHODS: UC mitigation efforts included protocols for the arrival of students living on-campus students, non-pharmaceutical interventions, daily symptom monitoring, symptomatic testing, asymptomatic surveillance testing, isolation and quarantine protocols, student ambassador programs for health education, campus health and safety pledges, and lowered density of on-campus student housing. We used data from UC campuses, the UC Health-California Department of Public Health Data Modeling Consortium, and the U.S. Census to estimate the proportion of each campus' student populations that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and compared it to the fraction individuals aged 20-29 years who tested positive in their respective counties. RESULTS: SARS-CoV-2 cases in campus populations were generally low in September and October 2020, but increased in November and especially December, and were highest in early to mid-January 2021, mirroring case trajectories in their respective counties. Many students were infected during the Thanksgiving and winter holiday recesses and were detected as cases upon returning to campus. The proportion of students who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during Fall 2020 ranged from 1.2% to 5.2% for students living on campus and was similar to students living off campus. For most UC campuses the proportion of students testing positive was lower than that for the 20-29-year-old population in which campuses were located. CONCLUSIONS: The layered mitigation approach used on UC campuses, informed by public health science and augmented perhaps by a more compliant population, likely minimized campus transmission and outbreaks and limited transmission to surrounding communities. University policies that include these mitigation efforts in Fall 2020 along with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, may alleviate some local concerns about college students returning to communities and facilitate resumption of normal campus operations and in-person instruction.

Cost-effectiveness of Antenatal Rescreening Among Pregnant Women for Hepatitis C in the United States.

To inform proposed changes in hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening guidelines in the United States, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of HCV antenatal rescreening for women without evidence of HCV during a prior pregnancy, using a previously published model. Universal HCV rescreening among pregnant women was cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $6000 per quality-adjusted life-year) and should be recommended nationally.

Effects and cost of different strategies to eliminate hepatitis C virus transmission in Pakistan: a modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: The WHO elimination strategy for hepatitis C virus advocates scaling up screening and treatment to reduce global hepatitis C incidence by 80% by 2030, but little is known about how this reduction could be achieved and the costs of doing so. We aimed to evaluate the effects and cost of different strategies to scale up screening and treatment of hepatitis C in Pakistan and determine what is required to meet WHO elimination targets for incidence. METHODS: We adapted a previous model of hepatitis C virus transmission, treatment, and disease progression for Pakistan, calibrating using available data to incorporate a detailed cascade of care for hepatitis C with cost data on diagnostics and hepatitis C treatment. We modelled the effect on various outcomes and costs of alternative scenarios for scaling up screening and hepatitis C treatment in 2018-30. We calibrated the model to country-level demographic data for 1960-2015 (including population growth) and to hepatitis C seroprevalence data from a national survey in 2007-08, surveys among people who inject drugs (PWID), and hepatitis C seroprevalence trends among blood donors. The cascade of care in our model begins with diagnosis of hepatitis C infection through antibody screening and RNA confirmation. Diagnosed individuals are then referred to care and started on treatment, which can result in a sustained virological response (effective cure). We report the median and 95% uncertainty interval (UI) from 1151 modelled runs. FINDINGS: One-time screening of 90% of the 2018 population by 2030, with 80% referral to treatment, was projected to lead to 13·8 million (95% UI 13·4-14·1) individuals being screened and 350 000 (315 000-385 000) treatments started annually, decreasing hepatitis C incidence by 26·5% (22·5-30·7) over 2018-30. Prioritised screening of high prevalence groups (PWID and adults aged ≥30 years) and rescreening (annually for PWID, otherwise every 10 years) are likely to increase the number screened and treated by 46·8% and decrease incidence by 50·8% (95% UI 46·1-55·0). Decreasing hepatitis C incidence by 80% is estimated to require a doubling of the primary screening rate, increasing referral to 90%, rescreening the general population every 5 years, and re-engaging those lost to follow-up every 5 years. This approach could cost US$8·1 billion, reducing to $3·9 billion with lowest costs for diagnostic tests and drugs, including health-care savings, and implementing a simplified treatment algorithm. INTERPRETATION: Pakistan will need to invest about 9·0% of its yearly health expenditure to enable sufficient scale up in screening and treatment to achieve the WHO hepatitis C elimination target of an 80% reduction in incidence by 2030. FUNDING: UNITAID.

Cost-effectiveness of the HepCATT intervention in specialist drug clinics to improve case-finding and engagement with HCV treatment for people who inject drugs in England.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection; however, ~50% are undiagnosed in England and linkage-to-care is poor. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of an intervention (HepCATT) to improve case-finding and referral to HCV treatment compared with standard-of-care pathways in drug treatment centres in England. DESIGN: HCV transmission and disease progression model with cost-effectiveness analysis using a health-care perspective. Primary outcome and cost data from the HepCATT study parameterized the intervention, suggesting that HepCATT increased HCV testing in drug treatment centres 2.5-fold and engagement onto the HCV treatment pathway 10-fold. A model was used to estimate the decrease in HCV infections and HCV-related deaths from 2016, with costs and health benefits (quality-adjusted life-years or QALYs) tracked over 50 years. Univariable and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were undertaken. SETTING: England-specific epidemic with 40% prevalence of chronic HCV among PWID. PARTICIPANTS: PWID attending drug treatment centres. INTERVENTION: Nurse facilitator in drug treatment centres to improve the HCV care pathway from HCV case-finding to referral and linkage to specialist care. Comparator was the standard-of-care HCV care pathway. MEASUREMENTS: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of cost per QALY gained through improved case-finding. FINDINGS: Over 50 years per 1000 PWID, the HepCATT intervention could prevent 75 (95% central interval 37-129) deaths and 1330 (827-2040) or 51% (30-67%) of all new infections. The mean ICER was £7986 per QALY gained, with all PSA simulations being cost-effective at a £20 000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. Univariable sensitivity analyses suggest the intervention would become cost-saving if the cost of HCV treatment reduces to £3900. If scaled up to all PWID in England, the intervention would cost £8.8 million and decrease incidence by 56% (33-70%) by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing hepatitis C virus infection case-finding and treatment referral in drug treatment centres could be a highly cost-effective strategy for decreasing hepatitis C virus incidence among people who inject drugs.

Syringe sharing among people who inject drugs in Tijuana: before and after the Global Fund / Uso compartido de jeringas entre las personas que se inyectan drogas en Tijuana: antes y después del Fondo Mundial

Abstract Introduction Needle and syringe programs (NSP) reduce syringe sharing and HIV transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID). However, their effectiveness relies on sufficient individual and population level coverage. In Tijuana, Mexico, the Global Fund (GF) supported NSP during 10/2011-12/2013, but withdrew funds at the end of 2013 following Mexico's re-classification as an upper-middle income country. Objective We tested the hypothesis of higher NSP access and lower receptive syringe sharing among PWID in Tijuana during the GF support period compared to pre-GF initiation and post-GF withdrawal. Method We used data from an ongoing cohort study of PWID in Tijuana (03/2011-10/2015) to implement a segmented regression analysis investigating changes in the self-reported probability of NSP access, reported difficulty in finding sterile syringes and receptive syringe sharing before GF initiation and after GF discontinuation. Results We found a large significant increase in the probability of NSP access (+.07) and decrease in receptive syringe sharing (-.23) right after GF initiation, which continued over the GF period. Subsequently, we found a significant decline in NSP access (-.05) and an increase in receptive syringe sharing (+.02) right after post-GF withdrawal, which continued thereafter. Discussion and conclusion We demonstrated significant temporal changes in NSP access and receptive syringe sharing among PWID in Tijuana after GF initiation and withdrawal consistent with our hypothesis. Coordinated efforts with local authorities are needed to sustain major coverage NSP in settings receiving GF or external aid to guarantee continuity of harm reduction services and prevent reinside in risk behaviors associated with HIV transmission.

Resumen Antecedentes Los programas de intercambio de jeringas (PIJ) reducen la transmisión del VIH entre las personas que se inyectan drogas (PID). Sin embargo, su efectividad depende de una cobertura suficiente a nivel individual y poblacional. En Tijuana, México, el Fondo Mundial (FM) apoyó los PIJ durante 10/2011-12/2013, pero retiró los fondos a fines de 2013. Objetivo Probamos la hipótesis de un mayor acceso a los PIJ y un menor uso receptivo de jeringas compartidas entre las PID en Tijuana durante el período de financiamiento del FM en comparación con el periodo anterior y posterior al FM. Método Usando datos de un estudio de cohorte de PID en Tijuana (03/2011-10/2015), implementamos un análisis de regresión segmentado para investigar cambios en la probabilidad de acceso a las PIJ, la dificultad para encontrar jeringas estériles y el uso receptivo de jeringas compartidas sobre los periodos pre-, durante y post-FM. Resultados Identificamos un aumento en la probabilidad de acceso a PIJ (+.07) y una disminución en el uso de jeringas compartidas (-.23) justo después del inicio del FM, ambos significativos, que se sostuvieron durante el período del FM. Después del retiro del FM, identificamos una disminución en el acceso a PIJ (-.05) y un aumento en el uso de jeringas compartidas (+.02), ambos también significativos. Discusión y conclusión Esfuerzos coordinados con las autoridades locales son necesarios para garantizar una mayor cobertura de los programas de reducción del daño, independientemente de financiamientos externos, para prevenir reincidir en las conductas de riesgo para el VIH en PID.

The global burden of viral hepatitis from 1990 to 2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: With recent improvements in vaccines and treatments against viral hepatitis, an improved understanding of the burden of viral hepatitis is needed to inform global intervention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to estimate morbidity and mortality for acute viral hepatitis, and for cirrhosis and liver cancer caused by viral hepatitis, by age, sex, and country from 1990 to 2013. METHODS: We estimated mortality using natural history models for acute hepatitis infections and GBD's cause-of-death ensemble model for cirrhosis and liver cancer. We used meta-regression to estimate total cirrhosis and total liver cancer prevalence, as well as the proportion of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to each cause. We then estimated cause-specific prevalence as the product of the total prevalence and the proportion attributable to a specific cause. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2013, global viral hepatitis deaths increased from 0·89 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·86-0·94) to 1·45 million (1·38-1·54); YLLs from 31·0 million (29·6-32·6) to 41·6 million (39·1-44·7); YLDs from 0·65 million (0·45-0·89) to 0·87 million (0·61-1·18); and DALYs from 31·7 million (30·2-33·3) to 42·5 million (39·9-45·6). In 2013, viral hepatitis was the seventh (95% UI seventh to eighth) leading cause of death worldwide, compared with tenth (tenth to 12th) in 1990. INTERPRETATION: Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Unlike most communicable diseases, the absolute burden and relative rank of viral hepatitis increased between 1990 and 2013. The enormous health loss attributable to viral hepatitis, and the availability of effective vaccines and treatments, suggests an important opportunity to improve public health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Is increased hepatitis C virus case-finding combined with current or 8-week to 12-week direct-acting antiviral therapy cost-effective in UK prisons? A prevention benefit analysis.

UNLABELLED: Prisoners have a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV), but case-finding may not have been cost-effective because treatment often exceeded average prison stay combined with a lack of continuity of care. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of increased HCV case-finding and treatment in UK prisons using short-course therapies. A dynamic HCV transmission model assesses the cost-effectiveness of doubling HCV case-finding (achieved through introducing opt-out HCV testing in UK pilot prisons) and increasing treatment in UK prisons compared to status quo voluntary risk-based testing (6% prison entrants/year), using currently recommended therapies (8-24 weeks) or interferon (IFN)-free direct-acting antivirals (DAAs; 8-12 weeks, 95% sustained virological response, £3300/week). Costs (British pounds, £) and health utilities (quality-adjusted life years) were used to calculate mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We assumed 56% referral and 2.5%/25% of referred people who inject drugs (PWID)/ex-PWID treated within 2 months of diagnosis in prison. PWID and ex-PWID or non-PWID are in prison an average 4 and 8 months, respectively. Doubling prison testing rates with existing treatments produces a mean ICER of £19,850/quality-adjusted life years gained compared to current testing/treatment and is 45% likely to be cost-effective under a £20,000 willingness-to-pay threshold. Switching to 8-week to 12-week IFN-free DAAs in prisons could increase cost-effectiveness (ICER £15,090/quality-adjusted life years gained). Excluding prevention benefit decreases cost-effectiveness. If >10% referred PWID are treated in prison (2.5% base case), either treatment could be highly cost-effective (ICER<£13,000). HCV case-finding and IFN-free DAAs could be highly cost-effective if DAA cost is 10% lower or with 8 weeks' duration. CONCLUSIONS: Increased HCV testing in UK prisons (such as through opt-out testing) is borderline cost-effective compared to status quo voluntary risk-based testing under a £20,000 willingness to pay with current treatments but likely to be cost-effective if short-course IFN-free DAAs are used and could be highly cost-effective if PWID treatment rates were increased. (Hepatology 2016;63:1796-1808).

Cost-Effectiveness of HBV and HCV Screening Strategies--A Systematic Review of Existing Modelling Techniques.

INTRODUCTION: Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of screening for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) are generally heterogeneous in terms of risk groups, settings, screening intervention, outcomes and the economic modelling framework. It is therefore difficult to compare cost-effectiveness results between studies. This systematic review aims to summarise and critically assess existing economic models for HBV and HCV in order to identify the main methodological differences in modelling approaches. METHODS: A structured search strategy was developed and a systematic review carried out. A critical assessment of the decision-analytic models was carried out according to the guidelines and framework developed for assessment of decision-analytic models in Health Technology Assessment of health care interventions. RESULTS: The overall approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies was found to be broadly consistent for HBV and HCV. However, modelling parameters and related structure differed between models, producing different results. More recent publications performed better against a performance matrix, evaluating model components and methodology. CONCLUSION: When assessing screening strategies for HBV and HCV infection, the focus should be on more recent studies, which applied the latest treatment regimes, test methods and had better and more complete data on which to base their models. In addition to parameter selection and associated assumptions, careful consideration of dynamic versus static modelling is recommended. Future research may want to focus on these methodological issues. In addition, the ability to evaluate screening strategies for multiple infectious diseases, (HCV and HIV at the same time) might prove important for decision makers.

The hepatitis C virus epidemics in key populations (including people who inject drugs, prisoners and MSM): the use of direct-acting antivirals as treatment for prevention.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is high among people who inject drugs (PWID) and prisoners, and increasing among HIV-infected MSM, who are key populations for HCV transmission in high-income countries and may also play a role in many in low- and middle-income countries. There is an increasing interest in the use of HCV antiviral treatment for prevention in these populations. RECENT FINDINGS: Numerous theoretical modelling studies have explored the potential impact of HCV treatment for prevention among PWID in a range of global settings, generally finding that modest and achievable levels of HCV treatment, especially with interferon-free direct-acting antiviral therapy (IFN-free DAAs), could substantially reduce HCV chronic prevalence among PWID within the next 10-20 years. In addition, modelling studies have shown HCV testing and treatment in prison (including prevention benefits) could be cost-effective if continuity of care is ensured, or HCV treatments are shortened with DAAs. Modelling work among HIV-infected MSM has shown that further HCV treatment scale-up is likely required despite high treatment rates in this population. However, no empirical studies have explored whether HCV treatment can reduce HCV prevalence and prevent onwards transmission among those at risk of transmission. SUMMARY: HCV treatment for key populations such as PWID, prisoners and MSM could become an important HCV prevention intervention, especially in the IFN-free DAA era. However, there is an urgent need to test these hypotheses through empirical studies.

Glucose-lactate metabolic cooperation in cancer: insights from a spatial mathematical model and implications for targeted therapy.

A recent study has hypothesised a glucose-lactate metabolic symbiosis between adjacent hypoxic and oxygenated regions of a developing tumour, and proposed a treatment strategy to target this symbiosis. However, in vivo experimental support remains inconclusive. Here we develop a minimal spatial mathematical model of glucose-lactate metabolism to examine, in principle, whether metabolic symbiosis is plausible in human tumours, and to assess the potential impact of inhibiting it. We find that symbiosis is a robust feature of our model system-although on the length scale at which oxygen supply is diffusion-limited, its occurrence requires very high cellular metabolic activity-and that necrosis in the tumour core is reduced in the presence of symbiosis. Upon simulating therapeutic inhibition of lactate uptake, we predict that targeted treatment increases the extent of tissue oxygenation without increasing core necrosis. The oxygenation effect is correlated strongly with the extent of wild-type hypoxia and only weakly with wild-type symbiotic behaviour, and therefore may be promising for radiosensitisation of hypoxic, lactate-consuming tumours even if they do not exhibit a spatially well-defined symbiosis. Finally, we conduct in vitro experiments on the U87 glioblastoma cell line to facilitate preliminary speculation as to where highly malignant tumours might fall in our parameter space, and find that these experiments suggest a weakly symbiotic regime for U87 cells, thus raising the new question of what relationship might exist between symbiosis and tumour malignancy.

A general reaction-diffusion model of acidity in cancer invasion.

We model the metabolism and behaviour of a developing cancer tumour in the context of its microenvironment, with the aim of elucidating the consequences of altered energy metabolism. Of particular interest is the Warburg Effect, a widespread preference in tumours for cytosolic glycolysis rather than oxidative phosphorylation for glucose breakdown, as yet incompletely understood. We examine a candidate explanation for the prevalence of the Warburg Effect in tumours, the acid-mediated invasion hypothesis, by generalising a canonical non-linear reaction-diffusion model of acid-mediated tumour invasion to consider additional biological features of potential importance. We apply both numerical methods and a non-standard asymptotic analysis in a travelling wave framework to obtain an explicit understanding of the range of tumour behaviours produced by the model and how fundamental parameters govern the speed and shape of invading tumour waves. Comparison with conclusions drawn under the original system--a special case of our generalised system--allows us to comment on the structural stability and predictive power of the modelling framework.

Bicarbonate and dichloroacetate: evaluating pH altering therapies in a mouse model for metastatic breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The glycolytic nature of malignant tumors contributes to high levels of extracellular acidity in the tumor microenvironment. Tumor acidity is a driving force in invasion and metastases. Recently, it has been shown that buffering of extracellular acidity through systemic administration of oral bicarbonate can inhibit the spread of metastases in a mouse model for metastatic breast cancer. While these findings are compelling, recent assessments into the use of oral bicarbonate as a cancer intervention reveal limitations. METHODS: We posited that safety and efficacy of bicarbonate could be enhanced by dichloroacetate (DCA), a drug that selectively targets tumor cells and reduces extracellular acidity through inhibition of glycolysis. Using our mouse model for metastatic breast cancer (MDA-MB-231), we designed an interventional survival study where tumor bearing mice received bicarbonate, DCA, or DCA-bicarbonate (DB) therapies chronically. RESULTS: Dichloroacetate alone or in combination with bicarbonate did not increase systemic alkalosis in mice. Survival was longest in mice administered bicarbonate-based therapies. Primary tumor re-occurrence after surgeries is associated with survival rates. Although DB therapy did not significantly enhance oral bicarbonate, we did observe reduced pulmonary lesion diameters in this cohort. The DCA monotherapy was not effective in reducing tumor size or metastases or improving survival time. We provide in vitro evidence to suggest this outcome may be a function of hypoxia in the tumor microenvironment. CONCLUSIONS: DB combination therapy did not appear to enhance the effect of chronic oral bicarbonate. The anti-tumor effect of DCA may be dependent on the cancer model. Our studies suggest DCA efficacy is unpredictable as a cancer therapy and further studies are necessary to determine the role of this agent in the tumor microenvironment.

Mathematical modelling of hepatitis C treatment for injecting drug users.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a blood-borne infection that can lead to progressive liver failure, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and death. In developed countries, the majority of HCV infections are transmitted via injecting drug users (IDUs). Despite effective antiviral treatment for HCV, very few active IDUs are treated. Reluctance to treat is partially due to the risk of reinfection. We develop a mathematical model of HCV transmission amongst active IDUs, and examine the potential effect of antiviral treatment. As most mathematical models of interventions utilise a treatment function proportional to the infected population, but many policy implementations set fixed yearly targets for specific numbers treated, we study the effects of using two different treatment terms: annually treating a proportion of infecteds or a fixed number of infecteds. We examine the behaviour of the two treatment models and find different bifurcation behaviours in each case. We calculate analytical solutions for the treatment level needed for disease clearance or control, and observe that achievable levels of treatment can result in control or eradication across a wide range of prevalence levels. Finally, we calculate the sensitivity of the critical treatment threshold to the model parameters, and find that for a given observed prevalence, the injecting duration and infection risk play the most important role in determining the treatment level needed. By contrast, the sensitivity analysis indicates the presence (or absence) of immunity does not alter the treatment threshold. We conclude by discussing the public health implications of this work, and comment on the importance and feasibility of utilising treatment as prevention for HCV spread amongst IDUs.

A mathematical model of tumour and blood pHe regulation: The HCO3-/CO2 buffering system.

Malignant tumours are characterised by a low, acidic extracellular pH (pHe) which facilitates invasion and metastasis. Previous research has proposed the potential benefits of manipulating systemic pHe, and recent experiments have highlighted the potential for buffer therapy to raise tumour pHe, prevent metastases, and prolong survival in laboratory mice. To examine the physiological regulation of tumour buffering and investigate how perturbations of the buffering system (via metabolic/respiratory disorders or changes in parameters) can alter tumour and blood pHe, we develop a simple compartmentalised ordinary differential equation model of pHe regulation by the HCO3-/CO2 buffering system. An approximate analytical solution is constructed and used to carry out a sensitivity analysis, where we identify key parameters that regulate tumour pHe in both humans and mice. From this analysis, we suggest promising alternative and combination therapies, and identify specific patient groups which may show an enhanced response to buffer therapy. In addition, numerical simulations are performed, validating the model against well-known metabolic/respiratory disorders and predicting how these disorders could change tumour pHe.

Tumour-stromal interactions in acid-mediated invasion: a mathematical model.

It is well established that the tumour microenvironment can both promote and suppress tumour growth and invasion, however, most mathematical models of invasion view the normal tissue as inhibiting tumour progression via immune modulation or spatial constraint. In particular, the production of acid by tumour cells and the subsequent creation of a low extracellular pH environment has been explored in several 'acid-mediated tumour invasion' models where the acidic environment facilitates normal cell death and permits tumour invasion. In this paper, we extend the acid-invasion model developed by Gatenby and Gawlinski (1996) to include both the competitive and cooperative interactions between tumour and normal cells, by incorporating the influence of extracellular matrix and protease production at the tumour-stroma interface. Our model predicts an optimal level of tumour acidity which produces both cell death and matrix degradation. Additionally, very aggressive tumours prevent protease production and matrix degradation by excessive normal cell destruction, leading to an acellular (but matrix filled) gap between the tumour and normal tissue, a feature seen in encapsulated tumours. These results suggest, counterintuitively, that increasing tumour acidity may, in some cases, prevent tumour invasion.

Leaky vessels as a potential source of stromal acidification in tumours.

Malignant tumours are characterised by higher rates of acid production and a lower extracellular pH than normal tissues. Previous mathematical modelling has indicated that the tumour-derived production of acid leads to a gradient of low pH in the interior of the tumour extending to a normal pH in the peritumoural tissue. This paper uses mathematical modelling to examine the potential of leaky vessels as an additional source of stromal acidification in tumours. We explore whether and to what extent increasing vascular permeability in vessels can lead to the breakdown of the acid gradient from the core of the tumour to the normal tissue, and a progressive acidification of the peritumoural stroma. We compare our mathematical simulations to experimental results found in vivo with a tumour implanted in the mammary fat pad of a mouse in a window chamber construct. We find that leaky vasculature can cause a net acidification of the normal tissue away from the tumour boundary, though not a progressive acidification over time as seen in the experiments. Only through progressively increasing the leakiness can the model qualitatively reproduce the experimental results. Furthermore, the extent of the acidification predicted by the mathematical model is less than as seen in the window chamber, indicating that although vessel leakiness might be acting as a source of acid, it is not the only factor contributing to this phenomenon. Nevertheless, tumour destruction of vasculature could result in enhanced stromal acidification and invasion, hence current therapies aimed at buffering tumour pH should also examine the possibility of preventing vessel disruption.