Dapagliflozin in Patients With Heart Failure and Deterioration in Renal Function.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors are guideline recommended in the management of heart failure (HF). Although these therapies can be initiated even in patients with comorbid chronic kidney disease, some patients may face deterioration of kidney function over time. OBJECTIVES: In this study, the authors sought to examine the safety and efficacy of continuing SGLT2 inhibitors in HF when the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) falls below thresholds for initiation. METHODS: Associations between a deterioration of eGFR to <25 mL/min/1.73 m2, efficacy, and safety outcomes and treatment with dapagliflozin were evaluated in time-updated Cox proportional hazard models in a participant-level pooled analysis of the DAPA-HF (Study to Evaluate the Effect of Dapagliflozin on the Incidence of Worsening Heart Failure or Cardiovascular Death in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure) and DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trials. RESULTS: Among 11,007 patients, 347 (3.2%) experienced a deterioration of eGFR to <25 mL/min/1.73 m2 at least once in follow-up. These patients had a higher risk of the primary composite outcome (HR: 1.87; 95% CI: 1.48-2.35; P < 0.001). The risk of the primary outcome was lower with dapagliflozin compared with placebo among patients who did (HR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.33-0.83) as well as did not (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.72-0.86) experience deterioration of eGFR to <25 mL/min/1.73 m2 (Pinteraction = 0.17). The risk of safety outcomes, including drug discontinuation, was higher among patients with deterioration of eGFR to <25 mL/min/1.73 m2; however, rates remained similar between treatment groups including among those who remained on study drug. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with deterioration of eGFR to <25 mL/min/1.73 m2 had elevated risks of cardiovascular outcomes yet appeared to benefit from continuation of dapagliflozin with no excess in safety outcomes between treatment groups. The benefit-to-risk ratio may favor continuation of dapagliflozin treatment in patients with HF experiencing deterioration of kidney function. Study to Evaluate the Effect of Dapagliflozin on the Incidence of Worsening Heart Failure or Cardiovascular Death in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure [DAPA-HF]; NCT03036124; and Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure [DELIVER]; NCT03619213).

Dapagliflozin in Heart Failure With Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction According to Polypharmacy Status.

BACKGROUND: Patients with heart failure (HF) have a high burden of multimorbidity, often necessitating numerous medications. There may be clinical concern about introducing another medication, especially among individuals with polypharmacy. OBJECTIVES: This study examined the efficacy and safety of addition of dapagliflozin according to the number of concomitant medications in HF with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction. METHODS: In this post hoc analysis of the DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trial, 6,263 participants with symptomatic HF with left ventricular ejection fraction >40% were randomized to dapagliflozin or placebo. Baseline medication use (including vitamins and supplements) was collected. Efficacy and safety outcomes were assessed by medication use categories ("nonpolypharmacy": <5 medications; "polypharmacy": 5 to 9 medications; and "hyperpolypharmacy": ≥10 medications) and continuously. The primary outcome was worsening HF or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Overall, 3,795 (60.6%) patients met polypharmacy and 1,886 (30.1%) met hyperpolypharmacy criteria. Higher numbers of medications were strongly associated with higher comorbidity burden and increased rates of the primary outcome. Compared with placebo, dapagliflozin similarly reduced the risk of the primary outcome irrespective of polypharmacy status (nonpolypharmacy HR: 0.88 [95% CI: 0.58-1.34]; polypharmacy HR: 0.88 [95% CI: 0.75-1.03]; hyperpolypharmacy HR: 0.73 [95% CI: 0.60-0.88]; Pinteraction = 0.30). Similarly, benefits with dapagliflozin were consistent across the spectrum of total medication use (Pinteraction = 0.06). Although adverse events increased with higher number of medications, they were not more frequent with dapagliflozin, regardless of polypharmacy status. CONCLUSIONS: In the DELIVER trial, dapagliflozin safely reduced worsening HF or cardiovascular death across a broad range of baseline medication use, including among individuals with polypharmacy (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure [DELIVER]; NCT03619213).

Iron Deficiency in Heart Failure and Effect of Dapagliflozin: Findings From DAPA-HF.

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency is common in heart failure and associated with worse outcomes. We examined the prevalence and consequences of iron deficiency in the DAPA-HF trial (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse-Outcomes in Heart Failure) and the effect of dapagliflozin on markers of iron metabolism. We also analyzed the effect of dapagliflozin on outcomes, according to iron status at baseline. METHODS: Iron deficiency was defined as a ferritin level <100 ng/mL or a transferrin saturation <20% and a ferritin level 100 to 299 ng/mL. Additional biomarkers of iron metabolism, including soluble transferrin receptor, erythropoietin, and hepcidin were measured at baseline and 12 months after randomization. The primary outcome was a composite of worsening heart failure (hospitalization or urgent visit requiring intravenous therapy) or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Of the 4744 patients randomized in DAPA-HF, 3009 had ferritin and transferrin saturation measurements available at baseline, and 1314 of these participants (43.7%) were iron deficient. The rate of the primary outcome was higher in patients with iron deficiency (16.6 per 100 person-years) compared with those without (10.4 per 100 person-years; P<0.0001). The effect of dapagliflozin on the primary outcome was consistent in iron-deficient compared with iron-replete patients (hazard ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.58-0.92] versus 0.81 [95% CI, 0.63-1.03]; P-interaction=0.59). Similar findings were observed for cardiovascular death, heart failure hospitalization, and all-cause mortality. Transferrin saturation, ferritin, and hepcidin were reduced and total iron-binding capacity and soluble transferrin receptor increased with dapagliflozin compared with placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Iron deficiency was common in DAPA-HF and associated with worse outcomes. Dapagliflozin appeared to increase iron use but improved outcomes, irrespective of iron status at baseline. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03036124.

Dapagliflozin reduces uric acid concentration, an independent predictor of adverse outcomes in DAPA-HF.

AIMS: Blood uric acid (UA) levels are frequently elevated in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), may lead to gout and are associated with worse outcomes. Reduction in UA is desirable in HFrEF and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors may have this effect. We aimed to examine the association between UA and outcomes, the effect of dapagliflozin according to baseline UA level, and the effect of dapagliflozin on UA in patients with HFrEF in the DAPA-HF trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: The association between UA and the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular death or worsening heart failure, its components, and all-cause mortality was examined using Cox regression analyses among 3119 patients using tertiles of UA, after adjustment for other prognostic variables. Change in UA from baseline over 12 months was also evaluated. Patients in tertile 3 (UA ≥6.8 mg/dl) versus tertile 1 (<5.4 mg/dl) were younger (66.3 ± 10.8 vs. 68 ± 10.2 years), more often male (83.1% vs. 71.5%), had lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (58.2 ± 17.4 vs. 70.6 ± 18.7 ml/min/1.73 m2 ), and more often treated with diuretics. Higher UA was associated with a greater risk of the primary outcome (adjusted hazard ratio tertile 3 vs. tertile 1: 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.66; p = 0.01). The risk of heart failure hospitalization and cardiovascular death increased by 7% and 6%, respectively per 1 mg/dl unit increase of UA (p = 0.04 and p = 0.07). Spline analysis revealed a linear increase in risk above a cut-off UA value of 7.09 mg/dl. Compared with placebo, dapagliflozin reduced UA by 0.84 mg/dl (95% CI -0.93 to -0.74) over 12 months (p < 0.001). Dapagliflozin improved outcomes, irrespective of baseline UA concentration. CONCLUSION: Uric acid remains an independent predictor of worse outcomes in a well-treated contemporary HFrEF population. Compared with placebo, dapagliflozin reduced UA and improved outcomes irrespective of UA concentration.

The effect of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose on health-related quality of life in iron-deficient patients with acute heart failure: the results of the AFFIRM-AHF study.

AIMS: Patients with heart failure (HF) and iron deficiency experience poor health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We evaluated the impact of intravenous (IV) ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) vs. placebo on HRQoL for the AFFIRM-AHF population. METHODS AND RESULTS: The baseline 12-item Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ-12), which was completed for 1058 (535 and 523) patients in the FCM and placebo groups, respectively, was administered prior to randomization and at Weeks 2, 4, 6, 12, 24, 36, and 52. The baseline KCCQ-12 overall summary score (OSS) mean ± standard error was 38.7 ± 0.9 (FCM group) and 37.1 ± 0.8 (placebo group); corresponding values for the clinical summary score (CSS) were 40.9 ± 0.9 and 40.1 ± 0.9. At Week 2, changes in OSS and CSS were similar for FCM and placebo. From Week 4 to Week 24, patients assigned to FCM had significantly greater improvements in OSS and CSS scores vs. placebo [adjusted mean difference (95% confidence interval, CI) at Week 4: 2.9 (0.5-5.3, P = 0.018) for OSS and 2.8 (0.3-5.3, P = 0.029) for CSS; adjusted mean difference (95% CI) at Week 24: 3.0 (0.3-5.6, P = 0.028) for OSS and 2.9 (0.2-5.6, P = 0.035) for CSS]. At Week 52, the treatment effect had attenuated but remained in favour of FCM. CONCLUSION: In iron-deficient patients with HF and left ventricular ejection fraction <50% who had stabilized after an episode of acute HF, treatment with IV FCM, compared with placebo, results in clinically meaningful beneficial effects on HRQoL as early as 4 weeks after treatment initiation, lasting up to Week 24.

Incidence and Outcomes of Pneumonia in Patients With Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of pneumonia and subsequent outcomes has not been compared in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine the rate and impact of pneumonia in the PARADIGM-HF (Prospective Comparison of Angiotensin Receptor-Neprilysin Inhibitor With Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibitor to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure) and PARAGON-HF (Prospective Comparison of ARNI with ARB Global Outcomes in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction) trials. METHODS: The authors analyzed the incidence of investigator-reported pneumonia and the rates of HF hospitalization, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death before and after the occurrence of pneumonia, and estimated risk after the first occurrence of pneumonia in unadjusted and adjusted analyses (the latter including N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide). RESULTS: In PARADIGM-HF, 528 patients (6.3%) developed pneumonia after randomization, giving an incidence rate of 29 (95% CI: 27 to 32) per 1,000 patient-years. In PARAGON-HF, 510 patients (10.6%) developed pneumonia, giving an incidence rate of 39 (95% CI: 36 to 42) per 1,000 patient-years. The subsequent risk of all trial outcomes was elevated after the occurrence of pneumonia. In PARADIGM-HF, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for the risk of death from any cause was 4.34 (95% CI: 3.73 to 5.05). The corresponding adjusted HR in PARAGON-HF was 3.76 (95% CI: 3.09 to 4.58). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of pneumonia was high in patients with HF, especially HFpEF, at around 3 times the expected rate. A first episode of pneumonia was associated with 4-fold higher mortality. (Prospective Comparison of Angiotensin Receptor-Neprilysin Inhibitor With Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure [PARADIGM-HF], NCT01035255; Prospective Comparison of ARNI [Angiotensin Receptor-Neprilysin Inhibitor] With ARB [Angiotensin Receptor Blocker] Global Outcomes in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction [PARAGON-HF], NCT01920711).

Effects of dapagliflozin in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: an analysis of DAPA-HF.

AIMS: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is an important comorbidity in heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), associated with worse outcomes and often suboptimal treatment because of under-prescription of beta-blockers. Consequently, additional effective therapies are especially relevant in patients with COPD. The aim of this study was to examine outcomes related to COPD in a post hoc analysis of the Dapagliflozin And Prevention of Adverse-outcomes in Heart Failure (DAPA-HF) trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined whether the effects of dapagliflozin in DAPA-HF were modified by COPD status. The primary outcome was the composite of an episode of worsening HF or cardiovascular death. Overall, 585 (12.3%) of the 4744 patients randomized had a history of COPD. Patients with COPD were more likely to be older men with a history of smoking, worse renal function, and higher baseline N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, and less likely to be treated with a beta-blocker or mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist. The incidence of the primary outcome was higher in patients with COPD than in those without [18.9 (95% confidence interval 16.0-22.2) vs. 13.0 (12.1-14.0) per 100 person-years; hazard ratio (HR) for COPD vs. no COPD 1.44 (1.21-1.72); P < 0.001]. The effect of dapagliflozin, compared with placebo, on the primary outcome, was consistent in patients with [HR 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.48-0.93)] and without COPD [0.76 (0.65-0.87); interaction P-value 0.47]. CONCLUSIONS: In DAPA-HF, one in eight patients with HFrEF had concomitant COPD. Participants with COPD had a higher risk of the primary outcome. The benefit of dapagliflozin on all pre-specified outcomes was consistent in patients with and without COPD. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT03036124.

Ferric carboxymaltose for iron deficiency at discharge after acute heart failure: a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Intravenous ferric carboxymaltose has been shown to improve symptoms and quality of life in patients with chronic heart failure and iron deficiency. We aimed to evaluate the effect of ferric carboxymaltose, compared with placebo, on outcomes in patients who were stabilised after an episode of acute heart failure. METHODS: AFFIRM-AHF was a multicentre, double-blind, randomised trial done at 121 sites in Europe, South America, and Singapore. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older, were hospitalised for acute heart failure with concomitant iron deficiency (defined as ferritin <100 µg/L, or 100-299 µg/L with transferrin saturation <20%), and had a left ventricular ejection fraction of less than 50%. Before hospital discharge, participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive intravenous ferric carboxymaltose or placebo for up to 24 weeks, dosed according to the extent of iron deficiency. To maintain masking of patients and study personnel, treatments were administered in black syringes by personnel not involved in any study assessments. The primary outcome was a composite of total hospitalisations for heart failure and cardiovascular death up to 52 weeks after randomisation, analysed in all patients who received at least one dose of study treatment and had at least one post-randomisation data point. Secondary outcomes were the composite of total cardiovascular hospitalisations and cardiovascular death; cardiovascular death; total heart failure hospitalisations; time to first heart failure hospitalisation or cardiovascular death; and days lost due to heart failure hospitalisations or cardiovascular death, all evaluated up to 52 weeks after randomisation. Safety was assessed in all patients for whom study treatment was started. A pre-COVID-19 sensitivity analysis on the primary and secondary outcomes was prespecified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02937454, and has now been completed. FINDINGS: Between March 21, 2017, and July 30, 2019, 1525 patients were screened, of whom 1132 patients were randomly assigned to study groups. Study treatment was started in 1110 patients, and 1108 (558 in the carboxymaltose group and 550 in the placebo group) had at least one post-randomisation value. 293 primary events (57·2 per 100 patient-years) occurred in the ferric carboxymaltose group and 372 (72·5 per 100 patient-years) occurred in the placebo group (rate ratio [RR] 0·79, 95% CI 0·62-1·01, p=0·059). 370 total cardiovascular hospitalisations and cardiovascular deaths occurred in the ferric carboxymaltose group and 451 occurred in the placebo group (RR 0·80, 95% CI 0·64-1·00, p=0·050). There was no difference in cardiovascular death between the two groups (77 [14%] of 558 in the ferric carboxymaltose group vs 78 [14%] in the placebo group; hazard ratio [HR] 0·96, 95% CI 0·70-1·32, p=0·81). 217 total heart failure hospitalisations occurred in the ferric carboxymaltose group and 294 occurred in the placebo group (RR 0·74; 95% CI 0·58-0·94, p=0·013). The composite of first heart failure hospitalisation or cardiovascular death occurred in 181 (32%) patients in the ferric carboxymaltose group and 209 (38%) in the placebo group (HR 0·80, 95% CI 0·66-0·98, p=0·030). Fewer days were lost due to heart failure hospitalisations and cardiovascular death for patients assigned to ferric carboxymaltose compared with placebo (369 days per 100 patient-years vs 548 days per 100 patient-years; RR 0·67, 95% CI 0·47-0·97, p=0·035). Serious adverse events occurred in 250 (45%) of 559 patients in the ferric carboxymaltose group and 282 (51%) of 551 patients in the placebo group. INTERPRETATION: In patients with iron deficiency, a left ventricular ejection fraction of less than 50%, and who were stabilised after an episode of acute heart failure, treatment with ferric carboxymaltose was safe and reduced the risk of heart failure hospitalisations, with no apparent effect on the risk of cardiovascular death. FUNDING: Vifor Pharma.

Rationale and design of the AFFIRM-AHF trial: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial comparing the effect of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose on hospitalisations and mortality in iron-deficient patients admitted for acute heart failure.

AIMS: Iron deficiency (ID) is a common co-morbidity in heart failure (HF), associated with impaired functional capacity, poor quality of life and increased morbidity and mortality. Treatment with intravenous (i.v.) ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) has shown improvements in functional capacity, symptoms and quality of life in stable HF patients with reduced ejection fraction. The effect of i.v. iron supplementation on morbidity and mortality in patients hospitalised for acute HF (AHF) and who have ID has yet to be established. The objective of the present article is to present the rationale and design of the AFFIRM-AHF trial (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02937454) which will investigate the effect of i.v. FCM (vs. placebo) on recurrent HF hospitalisations and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in iron-deficient patients hospitalised for AHF. METHODS: AFFIRM-AHF is a multicentre, randomised (1:1), double-blind, placebo-controlled trial which recruited 1100 patients hospitalised for AHF and who had iron deficiency ID defined as serum ferritin <100 ng/mL or 100-299 ng/mL if transferrin saturation <20%. Eligible patients were randomised (1:1) to either i.v. FCM or placebo and received the first dose of study treatment just prior to discharge for the index hospitalisation. Patients will be followed for 52 weeks. The primary outcome is the composite of recurrent HF hospitalisations and CV mortality. The main secondary outcomes include the composite of recurrent CV hospitalisations and CV mortality, recurrent HF hospitalisations and safety-related outcomes. CONCLUSION: The AFFIRM-AHF trial will evaluate, compared to placebo, the effect of i.v. FCM on morbidity and mortality in iron-deficient patients hospitalised for AHF.

Identidad cultural, salud social y Estado Social de Derecho: el caso Tesoro Quimbaya, Quindío, Colombia / Cultural Identity, social health, and the Social State Under the rule of law: the case of The Quimbaya Treasure Quindío, Colombia

Se aborda el concepto de "identidad cultural", como elemento cohesionador al interior de un grupo, en el marco de la historia y el territorio. Se plantea la relación de esta identidad cultural con símbolos de filiación y procedencia, tales como el patrimonio arqueológico; en este caso el "Tesoro Quimbaya". Se presenta la "salud social", como la capacidad de una comunidad, inmersa en una cultura y en un territorio, de relacionarse saludablemente abrigando sentimientos de respaldo y confianza. Rudimentos de identificación como son los legados ancestrales, permiten crear una confesión de "pertenencia sociocultural" y autodeterminación de los pueblos, que concurren en la salud de una sociedad. La autonomía de los pueblos y el reconocimiento de su diversidad se manifiestan en la noción de Estado Nación y de Estado Social de Derecho. En este documento se argumenta que aunque la construcción del estado fue una tarea política, no así la edificación de la nación, la cual resultó de un trabajo cultural previo; no obstante, los derechos historiales se reflejan en las constituciones establecidas. El Tesoro Quimbaya fue donado a España como parte de la participación de Colombia en las ceremonias de conmemoración del IV centenario del "Descubrimiento de América". El presente ensayo documenta los actos jurídicos que evidencian la inconstitucionalidad de tal donación y por lo tanto la posible repatriación del mismo. Enfatiza la importancia de su repatriación, dado el valor que este representa como agente de la identidad cultural de los colombianos en general y de los quindianos en particular.(AU)

We approach the concept of "cultural identity" as a cohesive element within a group in the context of history and territory. We posit the relationship between this cultural identity with symbols of affiliation and origin, such as archeological heritage; in this case "The Quimbaya Treasure". We present "social health" as the capacity of a community, immersed in a culture and a territory, to relate healthily and cherish sentiments of support and trust. Rudiments of identity such as ancestral legacies allow for the creation of feelings of "sociocultural belonging" and self-determination of peoples that take paret in the health of a society. The autonomy of peoples and the recognition of their diversity appear in the notion of Nation State and Social State Under the Rule of Law. In this document, it is argued that, though the construction of this state was a political task, the edification of the nation was not. This edification was the result of earlier cultural labor. Nevertheless, historical rights are reflected in established constitutions. The Quimbaya Treasure was donated to Spain as part of Colombia's participation in ceremonies commemorating the 400th anniversary of the "Discovery of the Americas". This essay documents the legislative acts that prove the inconstitutionality of that donation and, as a result, the treasure's possible repatriation. It places emphasis on the importance of the repatriation given the value it possesses as an agent of cultural identity for Colombians in general and the residents of Quindío in particular.(AU)

Predictors of cardiovascular events in a contemporary population with impaired glucose tolerance: an observational analysis of the Nateglinide and Valsartan in impaired glucose tolerance outcomes research (NAVIGATOR) trial.

OBJECTIVES: Risk factors for cardiovascular events are well established in general populations and those with diabetes but have been sparsely studied in impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). We sought to identify predictors of (1) a composite cardiovascular outcome (cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction and non-fatal stroke) and (2) cardiovascular death, among patients with IGT. DESIGN: We studied participants enrolled in the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial. Predictors of cardiovascular events were identified in observational analyses. SETTING: Clinical trial participants in 40 countries. PARTICIPANTS: 9306 participants with biochemically confirmed IGT at high risk of cardiovascular events participated in NAVIGATOR. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Cox proportional hazard regression models were constructed using variables (demographic data, medical history, clinical features, biochemical results and ECG findings) recorded at baseline to identify variables associated with and predictive of cardiovascular events. RESULTS: Over 6.4 years, 639 (6.9%) participants experienced a cardiovascular event, and 244 (2.6%) cardiovascular death. While predictors of both outcomes included established risk factors such as existing cardiovascular disease, male gender, older age, current smoking status and higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, other variables such as reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate, previous thromboembolic disease, atrial fibrillation, higher urinary albumin/creatinine ratio and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were also important predictors. Glycaemic measures were not predictive of cardiovascular events. c-Statistics for predicting cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death were 0.74 and 0.82, respectively. This compares with c-statistics for cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death of 0.65 and 0.71, respectively, using the classical Framingham risk factors of age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension and smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: The most powerful independent predictors of cardiovascular events in IGT included both established risk factors and other variables excluding measures of glycaemia, allowing effective identification of high-risk individuals.