Cost of illness for colorectal cancer in Japan - a time trend and future projections (1996-2035) based on governmental statistics.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, the crude mortality rate of colorectal cancer is the second highest among men and highest among women by site. We aimed to calculate the social burden of colorectal cancer using the cost of illness (COI) method and identify the main factors that drove changes in the COI. METHODS: From 1996 to 2020, the COI was estimated by summing direct, morbidity, and mortality costs. In addition, the COI by 2035 was projected by fitting approximate curves obtained from historical data to health-related indicators by sex and age. Future projections of the number of patients by the stage of disease were also made to explore the factors that changed the COI. RESULTS: The number of deaths and incidence from colorectal cancer was expected to continue increasing due to population aging. However, the COI was projected to rise from 850.3 billion yen in 1996 to 1.451 trillion yen in 2020, and peaked at 1.478 trillion yen in 2023 before it declined. CONCLUSION: Although the increased number of deaths associated with population aging increased COI, it was expected that the COI would decrease around 2023 due to a decrease in the human capital value of the deceased. In addition, the mortality rate was expected to decrease in the future due to an increase in the percentage of early detection of colorectal cancer via widespread screening and advances in medical technology.

Social burden of three major diseases in Japan: A time trend and future projections using the comprehensive cost of illness method.

BACKGROUND: Three major diseases in Japan, cancer, heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) are the leading causes of death in Japan. This study aimed to clarify the social burden of these diseases, including long-term care (LTC), and to predict future trends. METHODS: The comprehensive cost of illness (C-COI), a modification of the cost of illness (COI), was used to estimate the social burden of the three major diseases in Japan. The C-COI can macroscopically estimate both direct and indirect costs, including the LTC. A new method for future projections of the C-COI was developed according to the method for future projections of the COI. All data sources were government statistics. RESULTS: The C-COI of cancer, heart diseases, and CVD in 2017 amounted to 11.0 trillion JPY, 5.3 trillion JPY, and 6.5 trillion JPY, respectively. The projected future C-COI in 2029 was 10.3 trillion JPY, 5.3 trillion JPY, and 4.4 trillion JPY, respectively. In 2029, the LTC costs accounted for 4.4%, 12.8%, and 44.1% of the total C-COI, respectively. Informal care costs are projected to be approximately 1.7 times higher, assuming that all family caregivers will be replaced by professional caregivers in 2029. CONCLUSION: Indirect costs for all three diseases were projected to decrease owing to aging of the patient. In contrast to the other two diseases, the LTC cost of CVD accounted for a large proportion of the burden. The burden of CVD is expected to decrease in the future, but informal care by older family caregivers is suggested to reach its limits. In the future, the focus of resource allocation should shift from medical care to LTC, especially support for family caregivers. A method of future projections for the social burden based on the C-COI was considered effective for identifying issues for healthcare policy in the context of the times.

Cost of illness in a super-aged society-comparison of breast, lung, and prostate cancer in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Aging increases the disease burden because of an increase in disease prevalence and mortality among older individuals. This could influence the perception of the social burden of different diseases and treatment prioritization within national healthcare services. Cancer is a disease with a high disease burden in Japan; however, the age-specific frequency and age-specific mortality rates differ according to site. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between the aging of the Japanese society and the disease burden by comparing the features of three cancers with different age-specific frequency rates in Japan. Furthermore, we made projections for the future to determine how the social burden of these cancers will change. METHODS: We calculated the social burden of breast, lung, and prostate cancers by adding the direct, morbidity, and mortality costs. Estimates were made using the cost of illness (COI) method. For future projections, approximate curves were fitted for mortality rate, number of hospital admissions per population, number of outpatient visits per population, and average length of hospital stay according to sex and age. RESULTS: The COI of breast, lung, and prostate cancers in 2017 was 903.7, 1,547.6, and 390.8 billion yen, respectively. Although the COI of breast and prostate cancers was projected to increase, that of lung cancer COI was expected to decrease. In 2017, the average age at death was 68.8, 76.8, and 80.7 years for breast, lung, and prostate cancers, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with breast cancer die earlier than those with other types of cancer. The COI of breast cancer ("young cancer") was projected to increase slightly because of an increase in mortality costs, whereas that of prostate cancer ("aged cancer") was projected to increase because of an increase in direct costs. The COI of lung cancer ("aging cancer") was expected to decrease in 2020, despite the increase in deaths, as the impact of the decrease in human capital value outweighed that of the increase in deaths. Our findings will help prioritize future policymaking, such as cancer control research grants.

Cost of illness of liver diseases in Japan.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Liver disease is characterized by the progression from hepatitis to cirrhosis, followed by liver cancer, i.e., a disease with a higher mortality rate as the disease progresses. To estimate the cost of illness (COI) of liver diseases, including viral hepatitis, cirrhosis, and liver cancer, and to determine the overall effect of expensive but effective direct-acting antivirals on the COI of liver diseases. PATIENTS OR MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using a COI method from available government statistics data, we estimated the economic burden at 3-year intervals from 2002 to 2017. RESULTS: The total COI of liver diseases was 1402 billion JPY in 2017. The COI of viral hepatitis, cirrhosis, and liver cancer showed a downward trend. Conversely, other liver diseases, including alcoholic liver disease and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), showed an upward trend. The COI of hepatitis C continued to decline despite a sharp increase in drug unit prices between 2014 and 2017. CONCLUSIONS: The COI of liver diseases in Japan has been decreasing for the past 15 years. In the future, a further reduction in patients with hepatitis C is expected, and even if the incidence of NASH and alcoholic liver disease increases, that of cirrhosis and liver cancer will likely continue to decrease.

Comparison of the cost of illness of primary liver cancer between Japan and Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Primary liver cancer (PLC) is the fifth and second leading cause of death in Japan and Taiwan, respectively. The aim of this study was to compare the economic burden of PLC between the two countries using the cost of illness (COI) method and identify the key factors causing the different trends in the economic burdens of PLC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We calculated the COI every 3 years using governmental statistics of both countries (1996-2014 data for Japan and 2002-2014 data for Taiwan). The COI was calculated by summing the direct costs, morbidity costs, and mortality costs. We compared the COIs of PLC in both countries at the USD-based cost. The average exchange rate during the targeted years was used to remove the impact of foreign exchange volatility. RESULTS: From 1996 to 2014, the COI exhibited downward and upward trends in Japan and Taiwan, respectively. In Japan, the COI in 2014 was 0.70 times the value in 1996, and in Taiwan, the COI in 2014 was 1.16 times greater than that in 1996. The mortality cost was the greatest contributor in both countries and had the largest contribution ratio to the COI increase in Japan. However, the direct cost in Taiwan had the largest contribution ratio to the COI decrease. CONCLUSIONS: To date, the COI of PLC in Japan has continuously decreased, whereas that in Taiwan has increased. Previous health policies and technological developments are thought to have accelerated the COI decrease in Japan and are expected to change the trend of COI of PLC, even in Taiwan.

Cost of illness of hepatocellular carcinoma in Japan: A time trend and future projections.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth leading cause of death in Japan. The aim of this study was to calculate the social burden of HCC using the cost of illness (COI) method, and to identify the key factors driving changes in the economic burden of HCC. METHODS: Utilizing government-based statistical nationwide data, the cost of illness (COI) method was used to estimate the COI for 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2014 to make predictions for 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2029. The COI comprised direct and indirect costs (morbidity and mortality costs) of HCC. RESULTS: From 1996 to 2014, COI trended downward. In 2014, COI (579.2 billion JPY) was 0.71 times greater than that in 1996 (816.2 billion JPY). Mortality costs accounted for more than 70% of total COI and were a major contributing factor to the decrease in COI. It was predicted that COI would continue a downward trend until 2029, and that the rate of decline would be similar. CONCLUSIONS: COI of HCC has been decreasing since 1996. Treatment of patients infected with hepatitis C virus using newly introduced technologies has high therapeutic effectiveness, and will affect the future prevalence of HCC. These policies and technologies may accelerate the downward tendency of COI, and the relative economic burden of HCC is likely to continue to decrease.

Cost of illness of leukemia in Japan - Trend analysis and future projections.

BACKGROUND: Leukemia is a deadly hematological malignancy that usually affects all age groups and imposes significant burden on public funds and society. The objective of this study was to analyze the cost of illness (COI) of leukemia, and to mark out the underlying driving factors, in Japan. METHODS: COI method was applied to the data from government statistics. We first summed up the direct and indirect costs from 1996 to 2014; then future COI for the year 2017-2029 was projected. RESULTS: Calculated COI showed an upward trend with a 13% increase from 1996 to 2014 (270-305 billion yen). Increased COI was attributed to an increase in direct costs. Although mortality cost accounted for the largest proportion of COI, but followed a downward trend. Decreased mortality costs reflected the effects of aging. Mortality cost per person also decreased, however, the percentage of mortality cost for individuals ≥65 years of age increased consistently from 1996 to 2014. If a similar trend in health-related indicators continue, COI would remain stable from 2017 to 2029 regardless of models. CONCLUSION: COI of leukemia increased from 1996 to 2014, but was projected to decrease in foreseeable future. With advancement of new therapies, leukemia has become potentially curable and require long-term care; so direct cost and morbidity cost will remain unchanged. This reveal the further continuing burden on public funds. Thus, the information obtained from this study can be regarded as beneficial to future policy making with respect to government policies in Japan.

Cost of illness of non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis in Japan: A time trend analysis and future projections.

AIM: Liver cirrhosis is a preneoplastic condition to hepatocellular carcinoma that is an important worldwide public health concern, and its economic burden has been estimated in some countries. The objective of this study was to estimate and predict the cost of illness (COI) associated with non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis in Japan. METHODS: Using a COI method on available data from government statistics, we estimated the economic burden in 3-year intervals from 1996 to 2014. We then predicted the COI in 3-year intervals from 2017 to 2029 using fixed and variable model estimations. With fixed model estimation, only the estimated future population was used as a variable. Variable model estimation considered the time trends of health-related indicators throughout the past 18 years. RESULTS: The estimated COI of non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis was ¥208.1bn in 2014. The COI of non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis had a downward trend from 1996 to 2014. The predicted future COI of non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis was ¥144.3-210.5bn, ¥106.0-213.8bn, ¥88.6-213.4bn, ¥76.7-215.5bn, and ¥66.4-214.3bn in 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2029, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that the COI of non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis in Japan has steadily decreased and will continue to decrease. Treatment of patients with hepatitis C virus infection with newly introduced technologies has high therapeutic effectiveness, which will affect the future prevalence of non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis. When interpreting the results of long-term estimation, it should be noted that the results of this study were based on present conditions.

Effects of the concentration of digestive surgical operations in regional Japan.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between the concentration of digestive system surgery and outcomes at a regional level in Japan, using time-series data. METHODS: We used nationwide data from 2008 to 2013, and analyzed the ten most common surgical procedures. The unit of analysis was secondary medical areas (SMAs), which cover several municipalities and provide medical services for common diseases. The concentration of surgery in these areas was measured using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) and the relationship between the concentration of surgery and length of stay in hospital (LOS) was analyzed, in accordance with surgical difficulty. RESULTS: There was a downward trend in both the HHI and LOS from 2008 to 2013. SMAs showing an upward trend in the HHI (increased concentration) were associated with a greater reduction in LOS than those showing a downward trend for eight surgical procedures. For three easy surgical procedures, increased concentration of surgery was significantly associated with a reduction in LOS. After adjustment for trends in the aging population and the surgical volume in 2008, an increasing concentration for three easy surgical procedures was significantly related to a reduction in the LOS. CONCLUSION: Concentrating relatively easy surgical procedures at a regional level may be associated with a reduction in LOS.

Comprehensive Cost of Illness of Three Major Diseases in Japan.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to calculate the burden of 3 major diseases (cancer, heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease [CVD]) using the cost of illness (COI) method. METHODS: As a modification of the original COI method developed by Rice, the estimated comprehensive COI (C-COI) of cancer, heart disease, and CVD were redefined. C-COI consists of medical direct, morbidity, and mortality costs (MtCs; components of the original COI); long-term care (LTC) direct cost (DC); and family burden (FB). LTC DC is an insurance benefit, and FB is the unpaid care cost incurred by the family, relatives, and friends for in-home and in-community medical expenses (opportunity cost). All costs for 2008-2014 were calculated using official statistics of the Japanese government. RESULTS: The C-COI of cancer, heart disease, and CVD in 2014 amounted to 9815 billion Japanese yen (JPY), 4461 billion JPY, and 6501 billion JPY, respectively. As for the composition of the C-COI, the MtC accounted for the largest portion of medical expenses for treatment of cancer (63.5%) and heart disease (50.6%), but the DC (LTC) accounted for the largest portion of medical expenses for CVD (26.7%). CONCLUSIONS: This study, based on government statistics, demonstrated that C-COI, including LTC DC and FB, could be estimated, and the latter was found to be a major cost component in CVD, whereas long-term disability is a salient feature of the disease.

Informing health policy in Japan: A mixed-model estimation to compare the cost of illness of cervical cancer and endometrial cancer.

AIM: The objective of this study was to inform Japanese health policy by comparing cervical cancer and endometrial cancer from the standpoint of economic burden and examining factors affecting future changes in economic burden. METHODS: Using government-based nationwide statistical data, we used the cost-of-illness (COI) method to estimate the COI from 1996 to 2011 and predicted future estimates for 2014, 2017, and 2020. RESULTS: In 2011, the COI of cervical cancer was estimated at 159.9 billion yen and that of endometrial cancer was estimated at 99.5 billion yen. Assuming the current trends in health-related indicators, the COI of cervical cancer is predicted to temporarily decrease in 2014 and then remain constant. Meanwhile, the COI of endometrial cancer is predicted to temporarily decrease in 2014 before returning to an upward trend. CONCLUSION: The COI of both cervical cancer and endometrial cancer is estimated to remain constant or increase in the future. The average age of death from cervical cancer is predicted to remain relatively young and the high human capital value of patients who die in their sixties is the most likely explanation for the lack of decrease in future COI. As women's participation in society continues to increase, the future COI may also increase. Regarding endometrial cancer, the increase in direct costs, particularly hospitalization costs, is a likely factor resulting in the increase in the COI. This is because women are surviving longer, and thus receiving care for longer durations, because of advancements in medical care.

Cost of illness of the prostate cancer in Japan--a time-trend analysis and future projections.

BACKGROUND: The majority of patients with prostate cancer (International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition, code C61) are elderly. With Japan's rapidly society aging, both the prevalence and mortality of prostate cancer are expected to increase in the future. The objective of this study was to estimate and predict the cost of illness (COI) associated with prostate cancer in Japan. METHODS: Using a COI method based on available data from government office statistics, we estimated the COI for 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2011. We then predicted the COI for 2014, 2017, and 2020 using fixed model estimation and variable model estimation. With fixed model estimation, only estimated future population was used as a variable. Variable model estimation considered the time trend of health-related indicators in the past 15 years. We derived the COI from the sum of direct and indirect costs (morbidity and mortality). RESULTS: We found the predicted future COI of prostate cancer to be 354.7-378.3 billion yen in 2014, 370.8-421.0 billion yen in 2017, and 385.3-474.1 billion yen in 2020. Regardless of the estimation model, we found that COI would increase compared with the baseline year 2011 (307.3 billion yen). The direct costs for inpatient and outpatient treatment, laboratory tests, and drugs accounted for 60-75% of the COI of prostate cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that the COI of prostate cancer in Japan has steadily increased and is expected to rise in the future. Direct costs comprised the largest proportion of the COI and are anticipated to continue expanding; this will result in increased burden on public funds in Japan, where a universal public insurance system operates. These trends differ from those with other forms of cancer.

Cost of illness of breast cancer in Japan: trends and future projections.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is a major cause of death for women in Japan. The objectives of this study were to estimate and project the economic burden associated with breast cancer in Japan and identify the key factors that drive the change of the economic burden of breast cancer. METHODS: We calculated the cost of illness (COI) every 3 years from 1996 to 2020 using governmental statistics. COI was calculated by summing the direct costs, morbidity costs, and mortality costs. RESULTS: From 1996 to 2011 COI was trending upward. COI in 2011 (697 billion yen) was 1.7-times greater than that in 1996 (407 billion yen). The mortality costs accounted for approximately 65-70% of the total COI and were a major contributing factor to increase in COI. It was predicted that COI would continue to trend upwards until 2020 (699.4-743.8 billion yen depending on the model), but the rate of increase would decline. CONCLUSIONS: COI of breast cancer has been steadily increasing since 1996. While the rate of increase is expected to plateau, the average age at death from breast cancer is still less than that from other cancers, and the relative economic burden of breast cancer will continue to increase in the foreseeable future.

Cost of illness of the cervical cancer of the uterus in Japan--a time trend and future projections.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates among young women in Japan. The objective of this study was to assess and project the economic burden associated with cervical cancer in Japan and identify factors affecting future changes in this burden on society. METHODS: Utilizing government-based statistical nationwide data, we used the cost of illness (COI) method to estimate the COIs for 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2011 to make predictions for 2014, 2017, and 2020. The COI comprised direct and indirect costs (morbidity and mortality costs). RESULTS: The COI was estimated to have increased by 66% from 96.1 billion yen in 1996 to 159.9 billion yen in 2011. The number of deaths increased, but the proportion of those aged ≥65 years as a percentage of all deaths remained mostly unchanged, with no increase in the average age at death. The mortality cost per person was estimated to have increased (31.5 million yen in 1996 vs. 43.5 million yen in 2011). Assuming that the current trend in health-related indicators continues, the COI is predicted to temporarily decrease in 2014, followed by almost no change in 2020 (the estimated COI is 145.3-164.6 billion yen). The mortality cost per person is predicted to remain almost unchanged (39.4-46.3 million yen in 2020). CONCLUSIONS: The fact that the life expectancy of affected individuals is not being prolonged and that the mortality in young individuals with a high human capital value is not decreasing may contribute to future sustainment of the COI. We believe that the results of the present study are applicable to discussions of disease control priorities.

Perioperative patient safety indicators and hospital surgical volumes.

BACKGROUND: Since the late 1990s, patient safety has been an important policy issue in developed countries. To evaluate the effectiveness of the activities of patient safety, it is necessary to quantitatively assess the incidence of adverse events by types of failure mode using tangible data. The purpose of this study is to calculate patient safety indicators (PSIs) using the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination/per-diem payment system (DPC/PDPS) reimbursement data and to elucidate the relationship between perioperative PSIs and hospital surgical volume. METHODS: DPC/PDPS data of the Medi-Target project managed by the All Japan Hospital Association were used. An observational study was conducted where PSIs were calculated using an algorithm proposed by the US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. We analyzed data of 1,383,872 patients from 188 hospitals who were discharged from January 2008 to December 2010. RESULTS: Among 20 provider level PSIs, four PSIs (three perioperative PSIs and decubitus ulcer) and mortality rates of postoperative patients were related to surgical volume. Low-volume hospitals (less than 33rd percentiles surgical volume per month) had higher mortality rates (5.7%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.9% to 7.4%) than mid- (2.9%, 95% CI, 2.6% to 3.3%) or high-volume hospitals (2.7%, 95% CI, 2.5% to 2.9%). Low-volume hospitals had more deaths among surgical inpatients with serious treatable complications (38.5%, 95% CI, 33.7% to 43.2%) than high-volume hospitals (21.4%, 95% CI, 19.0% to 23.9%). Also Low-volume hospitals had lower proportion of difficult surgeries (54.9%, 95% CI, 50.1% to 59.8%) compared with high-volume hospitals (63.4%, 95% CI, 62.3% to 64.6%). In low-volume hospitals, limited experience may have led to insufficient care for postoperative complications. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that PSIs can be calculated using DPC/PDPS data and perioperative PSIs were related to hospital surgical volume. Further investigations focusing on identifying risk factors for poor PSIs and effective support to these hospitals are needed.

Cost of illness of the stomach cancer in Japan - a time trend and future projections.

BACKGROUND: Stomach cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths in Japan. The objectives of this study were to estimate and project the economic burden associated with stomach cancer in Japan, and to identify the key factors that drive the economic burden of stomach cancer. METHODS: We calculated Cost of illness (COI) of 1996, 2002, 2008, 2014 and 2020 by using government office statistics and the COI method. We calculated direct cost and indirect cost (morbidity cost and mortality cost), and estimated the COI by summing them up. RESULTS: The number of deaths remained at approximately 50,000 in 1996-2008. COI was in downward trend from 1,293.5 billion yen in 1996 to 1,114.2 billion yen in 2008. Morbidity cost was 85.6 billion yen and 54.0 billion yen, mortality cost was 972.3 billion yen and 806.4 billion yen, and mortality cost per person was 19.4 million yen and 16.1 million yen in 1996 and 2008, respectively. Decrease of mortality cost that accounted for a large part of the COI (72.4% in 2008) was the major contributing factor. COI is predicted to decrease if the trend of health related indicators continues (442.8-1,056.1 billion yen depending on the model in 2020). Mortality cost per person is also predicted to decrease (9.5-12.5 million yen depending on the model in 2020). CONCLUSIONS: If the trend of health related indicators continues, it is estimated that COI of stomach cancer would decrease. "Aging", "change of the healthcare providing system" and "new medical technology" are considered as contributing factors of COI.

Patients' identification and reporting of unsafe events at six hospitals in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals and other health care organizations have increasingly recognized the need to engage patients as participants in patient safety. A study was conducted to compare patients' and health care staff's identification and reporting of such events. METHODS: A questionnaire was administered at six hospitals in Japan to outpatients and inpatients from November 2004 through February 2007. Patients were asked to respond to questions about experiences of possibly unsafe events. Patients experiencing such events were then asked about the events and whether they had reported their experience to health care staff. A specialist panel classified reported events as "uneasy-dissatisfying" or "unsafe." RESULTS: The response rates of outpatients and inpatients were 85.4% (1,506/1,764) and 54.3% (1,738/3,198), respectively. Among the respondents (> or = 20 years of age), 125 (8.7%) of the outpatients and 185 (10.9%) of the inpatients experienced uneasy-dissatisfying or unsafe events; 35 (2.4%) of the outpatients and 67 (4.0%) of the inpatients experienced unsafe events, the percent increasing with hospital stay. Only 38 (30.4%) of the outpatients and 62 (33.5%) of the inpatients reported the unsafe events to health care staff CONCLUSION: Only 17.1% of unsafe events reported by inpatients were identified by the in-house reporting systems of adverse events and near misses. For the uneasy-dissatisfying or unsafe events that patients did not think necessary to report, the patients often felt they were self-evident or easily identifiable by health care staff, had difficulty evaluating the event, did not expect their report to bring any improvement, or even felt that reporting it would create some disadvantage in their medical treatment. Patient reporting programs and in-house reporting systems, among other detection methods, should be regarded as complementary sources of information.