How Long Would You Like to Live? A 25-year Prospective Observation of the Association Between Desired Longevity and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Desired longevity represents how strongly people esteem possible extensions of their own lifetime. The association between desired longevity and mortality risk has been reported in only one prospective study, which examined a small sample of older participants. We aimed to examine the hypothesis that desired longevity at middle-age predicted long-term survival. METHODS: In the prospective cohort study, residents aged 40-64 years were asked how long they would like to live and asked to choose one from three options: longer than, as long as, or shorter than the life expectancy. We used Cox proportional hazards model to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality according to the three groups for desired longevity, treating the "longer than" group as the reference. We conducted mediation analysis to investigate the mechanism for the association between desired longevity and mortality. RESULTS: We recruited 39,902 residents to the study. Risk of all-cause mortality was significantly higher in the "shorter than" group (HR 1.12; 95% CI, 1.04-1.21). The association was independent of sex, age, marital status, education, medical history, and health status. Regarding cause of death, mortality risk of cancer (HR 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00-1.29) and suicide (HR 2.15; 95% CI, 1.37-3.38) were also higher in the "shorter than" group. The unhealthy lifestyle mediated this association with all-cause mortality by 30.4%. CONCLUSION: Shorter desired longevity was significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, and mortality from cancer and suicide. Lifestyle behaviors particularly mediated this association.

Dairy consumption and incident risk of thyroid cancer in Japan: a pooled analysis of the Miyagi Cohort Study and the Ohsaki Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: The impact of dairy consumption on thyroid cancer is unclear. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the association between dairy consumption and the risk of thyroid cancer in Japanese people. METHODS: The association between dairy consumption and the risk of thyroid cancer in Japanese people was examined by conducting a pooled analysis of two prospective studies of residents in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. Data from 64,340 men and women aged 40-79 years registered in the Miyagi Cohort Study in 1990 and in the Ohsaki Cohort Study in 1994 were analyzed. Dairy consumption was assessed at baseline using a self-administered food frequency questionnaire and was divided into quartiles based on the weight (in grams) of total dairy consumption per day. RESULTS: During 1,075,018 person-years of follow-up, there were 190 incident cases of thyroid cancer (29 men and 161 women). The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for thyroid cancer incidence in the highest quartile of dairy consumption compared with the lowest quartile were 0.83 (95% CIs 0.28-2.43, P-trend = 0.823) for men and 0.67 (95% CIs 0.42-1.06, P-trend = 0.056) for women. After stratification for BMI, a decreased risk was observed in women with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 (HRs: 0.37, 95% CIs 0.18-0.79, P-trend = 0.010). CONCLUSION: Dairy consumption is inversely associated with the risk of thyroid cancer in women with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2.

Association between Body Mass Index and Risk of Gastric Cancer by Anatomic and Histologic Subtypes in Over 500,000 East and Southeast Asian Cohort Participants.

BACKGROUND: This study was performed to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and gastric cancer in East and Southeast Asia where most of gastric cancer is non-cardia gastric cancer. METHODS: On the basis of 8,997 gastric cancer cases among the Asia Cohort Consortium participants from China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore (N = 538,835), we assessed gastric cancer risk according to BMI by calculating hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using the Cox proportional hazard regression model. RESULTS: A U-shaped associations between BMI and gastric cancer risk were observed. Gastric cancer risks in underweight group (<18.5 kg/m2) and in obesity group (≥27.5 kg/m2) were higher than reference BMI group (23-24.9 kg/m2; HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.05-1.25 for underweight; HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.03-1.22 for obesity, respectively). The associations of underweight and obesity with gastric cancer risk were consistent in the analyses for non-cardia gastric cancer, intestinal-type gastric cancer, and late-onset gastric cancer. No significant association of underweight and obesity with the risk of cardia gastric cancer, diffuse-type gastric cancer, and early-onset gastric cancer was observed. In addition, we found that the U-shaped association between BMI and gastric cancer risk remained in nonsmokers, while only underweight was related to increased gastric cancer risk in smokers. CONCLUSIONS: BMI has a U-shaped association with gastric cancer risk in East and Southeast Asian population, especially for the non-cardia gastric cancer, intestinal-type gastric cancer, and late-onset gastric cancer. IMPACT: Future studies with consideration of anatomic location and histology of gastric cancer are needed to establish the association of underweight as well as obesity with gastric cancer risk.

Association of Marital Status With Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Asia.

Importance: Marital status has been shown to be associated with mortality, but evidence in Asian populations is limited. Objective: To examine the association of marital status with total and cause-specific mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included individual participant data from 16 prospective studies in the Asia Cohort Consortium conducted between 1963 and 2015. Asian participants with complete information on marital and vital status were included. Study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards model and then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. The analysis began in February 2021 and ended in August 2021. Exposures: Marital status. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause and cause-specific mortality. Results: Of 623 140 participants (326 397 women [52.4%] and 296 743 men [47.6%]; mean [SD] age, 53.7 [10.2] years; mean [SD] follow-up time, 15.5 [6.1] years), 123 264 deaths were ascertained. Compared with married individuals, those who were unmarried had pooled HRs of 1.15 (95% CI, 1.07-1.24) for total mortality, 1.12 (95% CI, 1.03-1.22) for cerebrovascular disease mortality, 1.20 (95% CI, 1.09-1.31) for coronary heart disease mortality, 1.17 (95% CI, 1.07-1.28) for circulatory system diseases mortality, 1.06 (95% CI, 1.01-1.11) for cancer mortality, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.05-1.23) for respiratory diseases mortality, and 1.19 (95% CI, 1.05-1.34) for external causes of death. Positive associations with total mortality were also observed for those who were single (HR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.41-1.86), separated (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.13-1.61), divorced (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.13-1.69), and widowed (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.04-1.13). In subgroup analyses, the positive association persisted across baseline health conditions, and the risk of death was more pronounced among men or people younger than 65 years. Conclusions and Relevance: This large pooled cohort study of individual participant data provides strong evidence that being unmarried, as well as belonging to the unmarried subcategories, was positively associated with total and cause-specific mortality. Investment of targeted social support services might need to be considered in light of the mortality differences between married and unmarried individuals.

Association between body mass index and oesophageal cancer mortality: a pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies with >800 000 individuals in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The association between body mass index (BMI) and oesophageal cancer (OC) has been consistently negative among Asians, whereas different associations based on histological OC subtypes have been observed in Europeans and North Americans. We examined the association between BMI and OC mortality in the Asia Cohort Consortium. METHODS: We performed a pooled analysis to evaluate the association between BMI and OC mortality among 842 630 Asians from 18 cohort studies. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: A wide J-shaped association between BMI and overall OC mortality was observed. The OC mortality risk was increased for underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m2: HR = 2.20, 95% CI 1.80-2.70) and extreme obesity (BMI ≥35 kg/m2: HR = 4.38, 95% CI 2.25-8.52) relative to the reference BMI (23-25 kg/m2). This association pattern was confirmed by several alternative analyses based on OC incidence and meta-analysis. A similar wide J-shaped association was observed in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Smoking and alcohol synergistically increased the OC mortality risk in underweight participants (HR = 6.96, 95% CI 4.54-10.67) relative to that in reference BMI participants not exposed to smoking and alcohol. CONCLUSION: Extreme obesity and being underweight were associated with an OC mortality risk among Asians. OC mortality and BMI formed a wide J-shaped association mirrored by OSCC mortality. Although the effect of BMI on OSCC and oesophageal adenocarcinoma mortality can be different in Asians, further research based on a large case-control study is recommended.

Relationship between maximum occlusal force and gastrointestinal cancer in community-dwelling older Japanese adults.

Globally, the cancer burden is expected to increase as populations are ageing. Therefore, cancer prevention among older age groups is important. This prospective cohort study examined the relationship between the number of remaining teeth, maximum occlusal force, and incidence of gastrointestinal cancer in community-dwelling older Japanese individuals using data from the Tsurugaya project; 847 participants were included. The exposure variables were the number of remaining teeth and the maximum occlusal force, with the outcome being the incidence of gastrointestinal cancer. Covariates were age, sex, medical history, smoking, alcohol consumption, educational attainment, and physical function. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to examine the relationship between the number of remaining teeth, maximum occlusal force, and incidence of gastrointestinal cancer. With a median follow-up of 7.6 years, 63 participants were confirmed to have gastrointestinal cancer. The risk of gastrointestinal cancer was significantly higher in those with an occlusal force lower than the median (hazard ratio, 2.80; 95% confidence interval, 1.54-5.10). No significant risk difference was found according to the number of remaining teeth. Low maximum occlusal force was associated with the incidence of gastrointestinal cancer in community-dwelling older Japanese adults.

Association Between Social Participation and Disability-free Life Expectancy in Japanese Older People: The Ohsaki Cohort 2006 Study.

BACKGROUND: Although social participation has been reported to be associated with significantly lower risks of mortality and disability, to our knowledge, no study has estimated its impact on disability-free life expectancy (DFLE). Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between social participation and DFLE in community-dwelling older people. METHODS: We analyzed 11-year follow-up data from a cohort study of 11,982 Japanese older adults (age ≥65 years) in 2006. We collected information on the number of social participations using a questionnaire. Using this information, we categorized the participants into four groups. DFLE was defined as the average number of years a person could expect to live without disability. The multistate life table method using a Markov model was employed for calculating DFLE. RESULTS: The results revealed that DFLE according to the number of social participations was 17.8 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.3-18.2) for no activities, 20.9 (95% CI, 20.4-21.5) for one activity, 21.5 (95% CI, 20.9-22.0) for two activities, and 22.7 (95% CI, 22.1-23.2) for three activities in men, and 21.8 (95% CI, 21.5-22.2), 25.1 (95% CI, 24.6-25.6), 25.3 (95% CI, 24.7-25.9), and 26.7 years (95% CI, 26.1-27.4), respectively, in women. This difference in DFLE did not change after the participants were stratified for smoking, body mass index, physical activity, and depression. CONCLUSION: Social participation is associated with longer DFLE among Japanese older people; therefore, encouraging social participation at the population level could increase life-years lived in good health.

Association of dairy intake with all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease mortality in Japanese adults: a 25-year population-based cohort.

PURPOSE: The association between dairy intake and mortality remains uncertain, and evidence for the Japanese population is scarce. We aimed to investigate the association between dairy intake and all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in Japanese adults. METHODS: A total of 34,161 participants (16,565 men and 17,596 women) aged 40-64 years without a history of cancer, myocardial infarction, or stroke at baseline were included in the analysis, using data from the Miyagi Cohort Study initiated in 1990. Milk, yogurt, and cheese intake were obtained using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Total dairy intake was calculated as the sum of milk, yogurt, and cheese intake and then categorized by quartile. The outcomes were all-cause, cancer, and CVD mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality risks. RESULTS: During 750,016 person-years of follow-up, the total number of deaths was 6498, including 2552 deaths due to cancer and 1693 deaths due to CVD. There was no association between total dairy intake and all-cause, cancer, and CVD mortality for both men and women. We also examined the associations between subgroup dairy products and mortality. For milk and yogurt intake, our results suggest null associations. However, cheese intake was modestly associated with lower all-cause mortality in women; compared with non-consumers, the multivariable HRs (95%CIs) were 0.89 (0.81-0.98) for 1-2 times/month, 0.88 (0.78-1.00) for 1-2 times/week, and 0.89 (0.74-1.07) for 3 times/week or almost daily (p trend = 0.016). CONCLUSION: Dairy intake was not associated with mortality in Japanese adults, except for limited evidence showing a modest association between cheese intake and a lower all-cause mortality risk in women.

Body Mass Index and Thyroid Cancer Risk: A Pooled Analysis of Half a Million Men and Women in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

Background: Although previous meta-analyses have suggested a dose-response relationship between body mass index (BMI) and thyroid cancer risk, limited evidence has been presented about Asian populations. To assess this association among Asian populations, where underweight is more prevalent than in other regions, a pooled analysis from the Asia Cohort Consortium was conducted. Methods: Baseline height and weight were measured in five cohorts and self-reported in eight cohorts. Thyroid cancer incidence was ascertained by linkage to local cancer registries. Cohorts were treated as a stratum in the Cox proportional hazard model to estimate the pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding confidence intervals (CIs) from the estimates for each cohort. All analyses were stratified by sex. Results: A total of 538,857 men and women from 13 cohorts from mainland China, Korea, Japan, and Singapore were included in the analysis. During a mean of 15.1 years of follow-up, 1132 thyroid cancer cases were ascertained. Using a BMI of 18.5-22.9 kg/m2 as a reference, an elevated risk of thyroid cancer was observed for groups with a BMI between 25 and 29.9 kg/m2 (HR: 1.31, [CI: 0.95-1.80]) and a BMI of 30 kg/m2 and greater (HR: 1.84, [CI: 0.89-3.81]) in men. Thyroid cancer risk was elevated in women with a BMI of 23-24.9 kg/m2 (HR: 1.26, [CI: 1.07-1.48]). The HRs for 5-U increment of BMI showed a linear association among men (HR: 1.25, [CI 1.10-1.55]) but not among women (HR: 1.07, [CI: 0.97-1.18]). Although the overall thyroid cancer risk was lower among underweight men and women, the papillary cancer risk may be elevated among underweight men (HR: 2.24, [CI: 0.75-6.66]). Conclusion: While higher BMI is associated with an elevated risk of thyroid cancer in both men and women, the association of underweight BMI may differ by sex and histological subtype.

Association of Sleep Duration With All- and Major-Cause Mortality Among Adults in Japan, China, Singapore, and Korea.

Importance: The association between long sleep duration and mortality appears stronger in East Asian populations than in North American or European populations. Objectives: To assess the sex-specific association between sleep duration and all-cause and major-cause mortality in a pooled longitudinal cohort and to stratify the association by age and body mass index. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study of individual-level data from 9 cohorts in the Asia Cohort Consortium was performed from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2002. The final population included participants from Japan, China, Singapore, and Korea. Mean (SD) follow-up time was 14.0 (5.0) years for men and 13.4 (5.3) years for women. Data analysis was performed from August 1, 2018, to May 31, 2021. Exposures: Self-reported sleep duration, with 7 hours as the reference category. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality, including deaths from all causes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other causes. Sex-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression with shared frailty models adjusted for age and the key self-reported covariates of marital status, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, history of diabetes and hypertension, and menopausal status (for women). Results: For 322 721 participants (mean [SD] age, 54.5 [9.2] years; 178 542 [55.3%] female), 19 419 deaths occurred among men (mean [SD] age of men, 53.6 [9.0] years) and 13 768 deaths among women (mean [SD] age of women, 55.3 [9.2] years). A sleep duration of 7 hours was the nadir for associations with all-cause, cardiovascular disease, and other-cause mortality in both men and women, whereas 8 hours was the mode sleep duration among men and the second most common sleep duration among women. The association between sleep duration and all-cause mortality was J-shaped for both men and women. The greatest association for all-cause mortality was with sleep durations of 10 hours or longer for both men (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34; 95% CI, 1.26-1.44) and women (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.36-1.61). Sex was a significant modifier of the association between sleep duration and mortality from cardiovascular disease (χ25 = 13.47, P = .02), cancer (χ25 = 16.04, P = .007), and other causes (χ25 = 12.79, P = .03). Age was a significant modifier of the associations among men only (all-cause mortality: χ25 = 41.49, P < .001; cancer: χ25 = 27.94, P < .001; other-cause mortality: χ25 = 24.51, P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that sleep duration is a behavioral risk factor for mortality in both men and women. Age was a modifier of the association between sleep duration in men but not in women. Sleep duration recommendations in these populations may need to be considered in the context of sex and age.

Relationship Between Oral Health and Fractures in Community-Dwelling Older Japanese Adults.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between poor oral health and the incidence of fall-related fractures in older Japanese individuals. DESIGN: A 9-year prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants comprised 937 community-dwelling older Japanese adults aged 70 years or older. They all lived in the Tsurugaya district, a suburban area of Sendai city, and underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment, including an oral examination, in a public facility. MEASUREMENTS: The exposure variables were related to oral health status (posterior occlusal support, number of remaining teeth, and occlusal force). The outcome measure was the incidence of fall-related fractures, which was determined by National Health Insurance data. Analyzed covariates included age, sex, medical history, smoking, alcohol drinking, educational level, depressive symptoms, cognitive impairment, physical function, body mass index, and history of falls. Statistical relationships were examined by calculating hazard ratios (HRs) at 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using the Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, the HRs of fall-related fractures were significantly higher in those with unilateral posterior occlusal support (HR, 2.72; 95% CI, 1.13-6.55) and no posterior occlusal support (HR, 2.58; 95% CI, 1.29-5.15) than in those with bilateral posterior occlusal support. The HRs (95% CIs) of fall-related fractures in individuals with 10-19 and 1-9 teeth and edentulous individuals were 1.77 (0.81-3.89), 2.67 (1.24-5.75), and 2.31 (1.01-5.28), respectively, compared to those with ≥20 teeth. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Poor oral health status is a risk factor for the incidence of fall-related fractures in community-dwelling older Japanese individuals. The findings suggest that attention should be focused on oral health status to further understand the risk of fall-related fractures among community-dwelling older adults.

Mushroom consumption and incident risk of prostate cancer in Japan: A pooled analysis of the Miyagi Cohort Study and the Ohsaki Cohort Study.

In vivo and in vitro evidence has shown that mushrooms have the potential to prevent prostate cancer. However, the relationship between mushroom consumption and incident prostate cancer in humans has never been investigated. In the present study, a total of 36,499 men, aged 40-79 years, who participated in the Miyagi Cohort Study in 1990 and in the Ohsaki Cohort Study in 1994 were followed for a median of 13.2 years. Data on mushroom consumption (categorized as <1, 1-2 and ≥3 times/week) was collected using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to estimate multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for prostate cancer incidence. During 574,397 person-years of follow-up, 1,204 (3.3%) cases of prostate cancer were identified. Compared to participants with mushroom consumption <1 time/week, frequent mushroom intake was associated with a decreased risk of prostate cancer (1-2 times/week: HRs [95% CIs] = 0.92 [0.81, 1.05]; ≥3 times/week: HRs [95% CIs] = 0.83 [0.70, 0.98]; p-trend = 0.023). This inverse relationship was especially obvious among participants aged ≥50 years and did not differ by clinical stage of cancer and intake of vegetables, fruit, meat and dairy products. The present study showed an inverse relationship between mushroom consumption and incident prostate cancer among middle-aged and elderly Japanese men, suggesting that habitual mushroom intake might help to prevent prostate cancer.

Randomised controlled trial of a financial incentive for increasing the number of daily walking steps: study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Physical activity is one of the major modifiable factors for promotion of public health. Although it has been reported that financial incentives would be effective for promoting health behaviours such as smoking cessation or attendance for cancer screening, few randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have examined the effect of financial incentives for increasing the number of daily steps among individuals in a community setting. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of financial incentives for increasing the number of daily steps among community-dwelling adults in Japan. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study will be a two-arm, parallel-group RCT. We will recruit community-dwelling adults who are physically inactive in a suburban area (Nakayama) of Sendai city, Japan, using leaflets and posters. Participants that meet the inclusion criteria will be randomly allocated to an intervention group or a waitlist control group. The intervention group will be offered a financial incentive (a chance to get shopping points) if participants increase their daily steps from their baseline. The primary outcome will be the average increase in the number of daily steps (at 4-6 weeks and 7-9 weeks) relative to the average number of daily steps at the baseline (1-3 weeks). For the sample size calculation, we assumed that the difference of primary outcome would be 1302 steps. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been ethically approved by the research ethics committee of Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Japan (No. 2018-1-171). The results will be submitted and published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UMIN000033276; Pre-results.