Place of Death for Adults Receiving Specialist Palliative Care in Their Last 3 Months of Life: Factors Associated With Preferred Place, Actual Place, and Place of Death Congruence.

Objectives: Congruence between the preferred and actual place of death is recognised as an important quality indicator in end-of-life care. However, there may be complexities about preferences that are ignored in summary congruence measures. This article examined factors associated with preferred place of death, actual place of death, and congruence for a sample of patients who had received specialist palliative care in the last three months of life in Ireland. Methods: This article analysed merged data from two previously published mortality follow-back surveys: Economic Evaluation of Palliative Care in Ireland (EEPCI); Irish component of International Access, Rights and Empowerment (IARE I). Logistic regression models examined factors associated with (a) preferences for home death versus institutional setting, (b) home death versus hospital death, and (c) congruent versus non-congruent death. Setting: Four regions with differing levels of specialist palliative care development in Ireland. Participants: Mean age 77, 50% female/male, 19% living alone, 64% main diagnosis cancer. Data collected 2011-2015, regression model sample sizes: n = 342-351. Results: Congruence between preferred and actual place of death in the raw merged dataset was 51%. Patients living alone were significantly less likely to prefer home versus institution death (OR 0.389, 95%CI 0.157-0.961), less likely to die at home (OR 0.383, 95%CI 0.274-0.536), but had no significant association with congruence. Conclusions: The findings highlight the value in examining place of death preferences as well as congruence, because preferences may be influenced by what is feasible rather than what patients would like. The analyses also underline the importance of well-resourced community-based supports, including homecare, facilitating hospital discharge, and management of complex (eg, non-cancer) conditions, to facilitate patients to die in their preferred place.

Primary data on symptom burden and quality of life among elderly patients at risk of dying during unplanned admissions to an NHS hospital: a cohort study using EuroQoL and the integrated palliative care outcome scale.

BACKGROUND: Older people account heavily for palliative care needs at the population level and are growing in number as the population ages. There is relatively little high-quality data on symptom burden and quality of life, since these data are not routinely collected, and this group are under-recruited in primary research. It is unclear which measurement tools are best suited to capture burdens and experience. METHODS: We recruited a cohort of 221 patients aged 75 + years with poor prognosis who had an unplanned admission via the emergency department in a large urban hospital in England between 2019 and 2020. Risk of dying was assessed using the CriSTAL tool. We collected primary data and combined these with routine health records. Baseline clinical data and patient reported quality of life outcomes were collected on admission and reassessed within the first 72 h of presentation using two established tools: EQ-5D-5 L, EQ-VAS and the Integrated Palliative Outcomes Scale (IPOS). RESULTS: Completion rate was 68% (n = 151) and 33.1% were known to have died during admission or within 6 months post-discharge. The vast majority (84.8%) reported severe difficulties with at least one dimension of EQ-5D-5 L at baseline and improvements in EQ-VAS observed at reassessment in 51.7%. The baseline IPOS revealed 78.2% of patients rating seven or more items as moderate, severe or overwhelming, but a significant reduction (-3.6, p < 0.001) in overall physical symptom severity and prevalence was also apparent. No significant differences were noted in emotional symptoms or changes in communication/practical issues. IPOS total score at follow up was positively associated with age, having comorbidities (Charlson index score > = 1) and negatively associated with baseline IPOS and CriSTAL scores. CONCLUSION: Older people with poor prognosis admitted to hospital have very high symptom burden compared to population norms, though some improvement following assessment was observed on all measures. These data provide valuable descriptive information on quality of life among a priority population in practice and policy and can be used in future research to identify suitable interventions and model their effects.

Tissue resident iNKT17 cells facilitate cancer cell extravasation in liver metastasis via interleukin-22.

During metastasis, cancer cells invade, intravasate, enter the circulation, extravasate, and colonize target organs. Here, we examined the role of interleukin (IL)-22 in metastasis. Immune cell-derived IL-22 acts on epithelial tissues, promoting regeneration and healing upon tissue damage, but it is also associated with malignancy. Il22-deficient mice and mice treated with an IL-22 antibody were protected from colon-cancer-derived liver and lung metastasis formation, while overexpression of IL-22 promoted metastasis. Mechanistically, IL-22 acted on endothelial cells, promoting endothelial permeability and cancer cell transmigration via induction of endothelial aminopeptidase N. Multi-parameter flow cytometry and single-cell sequencing of immune cells isolated during cancer cell extravasation into the liver revealed iNKT17 cells as source of IL-22. iNKT-cell-deficient mice exhibited reduced metastases, which was reversed by injection of wild type, but not Il22-deficient, invariant natural killer T (iNKT) cells. IL-22-producing iNKT cells promoting metastasis were tissue resident, as demonstrated by parabiosis. Thus, IL-22 may present a therapeutic target for prevention of metastasis.

T cell-derived interleukin-22 drives the expression of CD155 by cancer cells to suppress NK cell function and promote metastasis.

Although T cells can exert potent anti-tumor immunity, a subset of T helper (Th) cells producing interleukin-22 (IL-22) in breast and lung tumors is linked to dismal patient outcome. Here, we examined the mechanisms whereby these T cells contribute to disease. In murine models of lung and breast cancer, constitutional and T cell-specific deletion of Il22 reduced metastases without affecting primary tumor growth. Deletion of the IL-22 receptor on cancer cells decreases metastasis to a degree similar to that seen in IL-22-deficient mice. IL-22 induced high expression of CD155, which bound to the activating receptor CD226 on NK cells. Excessive activation led to decreased amounts of CD226 and functionally impaired NK cells, which elevated the metastatic burden. IL-22 signaling was also associated with CD155 expression in human datasets and with poor patient outcomes. Taken together, our findings reveal an immunosuppressive circuit activated by T cell-derived IL-22 that promotes lung metastasis.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of palliative care in natural experiments: a systematic review.

CONTEXT: Investigators in palliative care rely heavily on routinely collected data, which carry risk of unobserved confounding and selection bias. 'Natural experiments' offer opportunities to generate credible causal treatment effect estimates from observational data. OBJECTIVES: We aimed first to review studies that employed 'natural experiments' to evaluate palliative care, and second to consider implications for expanding use of these methods. METHODS: We searched systematically seven databases to identify studies using 'natural experiments' to evaluate palliative care's effect on outcomes and costs. We searched three grey literature repositories, and hand-searched journals and prior systematic reviews. We assessed reporting using the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology checklist and a bespoke methodological quality tool, using two reviewers at each stage. We combined results in a narrative synthesis. RESULTS: We included 17 studies, which evaluated a wide range of interventions and populations. Seven studies employed a difference-in-differences design; five each used instrumental variables and interrupted time series analysis. Outcomes of interest related mostly to healthcare use. Reporting quality was variable. Most studies reported lower costs and improved outcomes associated with palliative care, but a third of utilisation and place of death evaluations found no effect. CONCLUSION: Among the large number of observational studies in palliative care, a small minority have employed causal mechanisms. High-volume routine data collection, the expansion of palliative care services worldwide and recent methodological advances offer potential for increased use of 'natural experiments'. Such studies would improve the quality of the evidence base.

Overprescribing among older people near end of life in Ireland: Evidence of prevalence and determinants from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).

International evidence shows that people approaching end of life (EOL) have high prevalence of polypharmacy, including overprescribing. Overprescribing may have adverse side effects for mental and physical health and represents wasteful spending. Little is known about prescribing near EOL in Ireland. We aimed to describe the prevalence of two undesirable outcomes, and to identify factors associated with these outcomes: potentially questionable prescribing, and potentially inadequate prescribing, in the last year of life (LYOL). We used The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, a biennial nationally representative dataset on people aged 50+ in Ireland. We analysed a sub-sample of participants with high mortality risk and categorised their self-reported medication use as potentially questionable or potentially inadequate based on previous research. We identified mortality through the national death registry (died in <365 days versus not). We used descriptive statistics to quantify prevalence of our outcomes, and we used multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with these outcomes. Of 525 observations, 401 (76%) had potentially inadequate and 294 (56%) potentially questionable medications. Of the 401 participants with potentially inadequate medications, 42 were in their LYOL. OF the 294 participants with potentially questionable medications, 26 were in their LYOL. One factor was significantly associated with potentially inadequate medications in LYOL: male (odds ratio (OR) 4.40, p = .004) Three factors were associated with potentially questionable medications in LYOL: male (OR 3.37, p = .002); three or more activities of daily living (ADLs) (OR 3.97, p = .003); and outpatient hospital visits (OR 1.03, p = .02). Thousands of older people die annually in Ireland with potentially inappropriate or questionable prescribing patterns. Gender differences for these outcomes are very large. Further work is needed to identify and reduce overprescribing near EOL in Ireland, particularly among men.

Predicting mortality in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA): development of a four-year index and comparison with international measures.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to replicate existing international (US and UK) mortality indices using Irish data. We developed and validated a four-year mortality index for adults aged 50 + in Ireland and compared performance with these international indices. We then extended this model by including additional predictors (self-report and healthcare utilization) and compared its performance to our replication model. METHODS: Eight thousand one hundred seventy-four participants in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing were split for development (n = 4,121) and validation (n = 4,053). Six baseline predictor categories were examined (67 variables total): demographics; cardiovascular-related illness; non-cardiovascular illness; health and lifestyle variables; functional variables; self-report (wellbeing and social connectedness) and healthcare utilization. We identified variables independently associated with four-year mortality in the development cohort and attached these variables a weight according to strength of association. We summed the weights to calculate a single index score for each participant and evaluated predicted accuracy in the validation cohort. RESULTS: Our final 14-predictor (extended) model assigned risk points for: male (1pt); age (65-69: 2pts; 70-74: 4 pts; 75-79: 4pts; 80-84: 6pts; 85 + : 7pts); heart attack (1pt); cancer (3pts); smoked past age 30 (2pts); difficulty walking 100 m (2pts); difficulty using the toilet (3pts); difficulty lifting 10lbs (1pts); poor self-reported health (1pt); and hospital admission in previous year (1pt). Index discrimination was strong (ROC area = 0.78). DISCUSSION: Our index is predictive of four-year mortality in community-dwelling older Irish adults. Comparisons with the international indices show that our 12-predictor (replication) model performed well and suggests that generalisability is high. Our 14-predictor (extended) model showed modest improvements compared to the 12-predictor model.

Public health insurance and mortality in the older population: Evidence from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing.

Most developed countries provide publicly-financed insurance for many health services for their populations although there is considerable variation across countries in the types of services covered, eligible population groups and whether co-payments are levied. The Irish healthcare system, with a complex mix of public and private financing of healthcare services, offers a useful case study for an examination of the impact of type of health insurance cover on population health. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which type of health insurance cover is associated with all-cause, cause-specific, and amenable mortality using data on a representative survey of the population aged 50+ from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) matched to administrative data on death registrations. The results show that those without public or private health insurance have a higher risk of all-cause and cancer mortality. However, there is no evidence that type of health insurance cover affects mortality risk from causes that are considered amenable to healthcare intervention, although this analysis was based on a much smaller sample size. This analysis provides important evidence for a country that is implementing reforms to its financing and delivery structures in order to move towards a system of universal healthcare.

Out-of-pocket costs near end of life in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Globally, there is a rise in chronic disease, including cancer, major organ failure and dementias. Patients and their families in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) pay a high proportion of medical costs out of pocket (OOP), and a diagnosis of serious illness often has catastrophic financial consequences. We therefore conducted a review of the literature to establish what is known about OOP costs near end of life in LMICs. AIMS: To identify, organise and report the evidence on out-of-pocket costs in adult end-of-life populations in LMIC. METHODS: A systematic search of 8 databases and a hand search of relevant systematic reviews and grey literature was performed. Two independent reviewers screened titles and abstracts, assessed papers for eligibility and extracted data. The review was registered with PROSPERO and adhered to the Preferred Reporting items for Systematic Reviews and Meta Analyses. The Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool was used to assess quality. The Wagstaff taxonomy was used to describe OOP. RESULTS: After deduplication, 9,343 studies were screened, of which 51 were read and rejected as full texts, and 12 were included in the final review. OOP costs increased with advanced illness and disease severity. The main drivers of OOP were medications and hospitalizations, with high but variable percentages of the affected populations reporting financial catastrophe, lost income, foregone education and other pressures. CONCLUSION: Despite a small number of included studies and heterogeneity in methodology and reporting, it is clear that OOP costs for care near end of life in LMIC represent an important source of catastrophic health expenditures and impoverishment. This suggests a role for widespread, targeted efforts to avoid poverty traps. Financial protection policies for those suffering from incurable disease and future research on the macro- and micro- economics of palliative care delivery in LMIC are greatly needed.

Effectiveness of a nurse-delivered (FOCUS+) and a web-based (iFOCUS) psychoeducational intervention for people with advanced cancer and their family caregivers (DIAdIC): study protocol for an international randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, millions of people with advanced cancer and their family caregivers are experiencing physical and psychological distress. Psychosocial support and education can reduce distress and prevent avoidable healthcare resource use. To date, we lack knowledge from large-scale studies on which interventions generate positive outcomes for people with cancer and their informal caregivers' quality of life. This protocol describes the DIAdIC study that will evaluate the effectiveness of two psychosocial and educational interventions aimed at improving patient-family caregiver dyads' emotional functioning and self-efficacy. METHODS: We will conduct an international multicenter three-arm randomized controlled trial in Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. In each country, 156 dyads (936 in total) of people with advanced cancer and their family caregiver will be randomized to one of the study arms: 1) a nurse-led face-to-face intervention (FOCUS+), 2) a web-based intervention (iFOCUS) or 3) a control group (care as usual). The two interventions offer tailored psychoeducational support for patient-family caregiver dyads. The nurse-led face-to-face intervention consists of two home visits and one online video session and the web-based intervention is completed independently by the patient-family caregiver dyad in four online sessions. The interventions are based on the FOCUS intervention, developed in the USA, that addresses five core components: family involvement, optimistic outlook, coping effectiveness, uncertainty reduction, and symptom management. The FOCUS intervention will be adapted to the European context. The primary outcomes are emotional functioning and self-efficacy of the patient and the family caregiver, respectively. The secondary outcomes are quality of life, benefits of illness, coping, dyadic communication, and ways of giving support of the patient and family caregiver. DISCUSSION: DIAdIC aims to develop cost-effective interventions that integrate principles of early palliative care into standard care. The cross-country setup in six European countries allows for comparison of effectiveness of the interventions in different healthcare systems across Europe. By focusing on empowerment of the person with cancer and their family caregiver, the results of this RCT can contribute to the search for cost-effective novel interventions that can relieve constraints on professional healthcare. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registration on ClinicalTrials.gov on 12/11/2020, identifier NCT04626349 . DATE AND VERSION IDENTIFIER: 20211209_DIAdIC_Protocol_Article.

Surgery versus conservative management of stable thoracolumbar fracture: the PRESTO feasibility RCT.

BACKGROUND: There is informal consensus that simple compression fractures of the body of the thoracolumbar vertebrae between the 10th thoracic vertebra and the second lumbar vertebra without neurological complications can be managed conservatively and that obvious unstable fractures require surgical fixation. However, there is a zone of uncertainty about whether surgical or conservative management is best for stable fractures. OBJECTIVES: To assess the feasibility of a definitive randomised controlled trial comparing surgical fixation with initial conservative management of stable thoracolumbar fractures without spinal cord injury. DESIGN: External randomised feasibility study, qualitative study and national survey. SETTING: Three NHS hospitals. METHODS: A feasibility randomised controlled trial using block randomisation, stratified by centre and type of injury (high- or low-energy trauma) to allocate participants 1 : 1 to surgery or conservative treatment; a costing analysis; a national survey of spine surgeons; and a qualitative study with clinicians, recruiting staff and patients. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged ≥ 16 years with a high- or low-energy fracture of the body of a thoracolumbar vertebra between the 10th thoracic vertebra and the second lumbar vertebra, confirmed by radiography, computerised tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, with at least one of the following: kyphotic angle > 20° on weight-bearing radiographs or > 15° on a supine radiograph or on computerised tomography; reduction in vertebral body height of 25%; a fracture line propagating through the posterior wall of the vertebra; involvement of two contiguous vertebrae; or injury to the posterior longitudinal ligament or annulus in addition to the body fracture. INTERVENTIONS: Surgical fixation: open spinal surgery (with or without spinal fusion) or minimally invasive stabilisation surgery. Conservative management: mobilisation with or without a brace. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Recruitment rate (proportion of eligible participants randomised). RESULTS: Twelve patients were randomised (surgery, n = 8; conservative, n = 4). The proportion of eligible patients recruited was 0.43 (95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0.63) over a combined total of 30.7 recruitment months. Of 211 patients screened, 28 (13.3%) fulfilled the eligibility criteria. Patients in the qualitative study (n = 5) expressed strong preferences for surgical treatment, and identified provision of information about treatment and recovery and when and how they are approached for consent as important. Nineteen surgeons and site staff participated in the qualitative study. Key themes were the lack of clinical consensus regarding the implementation of the eligibility criteria in practice and what constitutes a stable fracture, alongside lack of equipoise regarding treatment. Based on the feasibility study eligibility criteria, 77% (50/65) and 70% (46/66) of surgeons participating in the survey were willing to randomise for high- and low-energy fractures, respectively. LIMITATIONS: Owing to the small number of participants, there is substantial uncertainty around the recruitment rate. CONCLUSIONS: A definitive trial is unlikely to be feasible currently, mainly because of the small number of patients meeting the eligibility criteria. The recruitment and follow-up rates were slightly lower than anticipated; however, there is room to increase these based on information gathered and the support within the surgical community for a future trial. FUTURE WORK: Development of consensus regarding the population of interest for a trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN12094890. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 62. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Fractures occurring in the mid- to low back region (or thoracolumbar fractures) are the most common back fractures. When the fracture is stable with no spinal nerve injury, there is uncertainty whether treatment with surgery or non-surgical treatment (e.g. stabilising the spine with a brace) results in the best outcome for patients. The Pragmatic Randomised Evaluation of Stable Thoracolumbar fracture treatment Outcomes (PRESTO) study aimed to explore whether or not it would be feasible to carry out a full-scale study to find out which of these two treatments works best. Adults aged ≥ 16 years being treated for these fractures in three hospitals were invited to take part in the study. Over the course of 1 year, we assessed how many patients were treated, the number who met the study entry criteria and the proportion of eligible patients who agreed to take part. Staff and patients were interviewed about the study processes and their experiences of taking part. Spine surgeons from around the UK were also asked to complete an online survey, which asked questions about the treatment of patients with this fracture. There were fewer patients than expected who met the study entry criteria and, of these, fewer patients who agreed to take part. There were differences among surgeons about the definition of a stable fracture, and we found that surgeons have strong views about whether or not surgery is appropriate when fractures are stable. We also found that more support would be required for the staff involved in inviting patients to take part in a bigger study, and that the format and content of information provided to patients needs to be improved. The findings of the PRESTO study showed that a large trial is unlikely to be successful at this time; however, we have provided important information for future research into the treatment of these fractures.

Using predicted length of stay to define treatment and model costs in hospitalized adults with serious illness: an evaluation of palliative care.

BACKGROUND: Economic research on hospital palliative care faces major challenges. Observational studies using routine data encounter difficulties because treatment timing is not under investigator control and unobserved patient complexity is endemic. An individual's predicted LOS at admission offers potential advantages in this context. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study on adults admitted to a large cancer center in the United States between 2009 and 2015. We defined a derivation sample to estimate predicted LOS using baseline factors (N = 16,425) and an analytic sample for our primary analyses (N = 2674) based on diagnosis of a terminal illness and high risk of hospital mortality. We modelled our treatment variable according to the timing of first palliative care interaction as a function of predicted LOS, and we employed predicted LOS as an additional covariate in regression as a proxy for complexity alongside diagnosis and comorbidity index. We evaluated models based on predictive accuracy in and out of sample, on Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria, and precision of treatment effect estimate. RESULTS: Our approach using an additional covariate yielded major improvement in model accuracy: R2 increased from 0.14 to 0.23, and model performance also improved on predictive accuracy and information criteria. Treatment effect estimates and conclusions were unaffected. Our approach with respect to treatment variable yielded no substantial improvements in model performance, but post hoc analyses show an association between treatment effect estimate and estimated LOS at baseline. CONCLUSION: Allocation of scarce palliative care capacity and value-based reimbursement models should take into consideration when and for whom the intervention has the largest impact on treatment choices. An individual's predicted LOS at baseline is useful in this context for accurately predicting costs, and potentially has further benefits in modelling treatment effects.

Proportion of deaths in hospital in European countries: trends and associations from panel data (2005-2017).

BACKGROUND: End-of-life care attracts major policy interest. Place of death is an important metric of individual experience and health system performance. Most people prefer to die at home, but hospital is the most common place of death in high-income countries. Little is known about international trends in place of death over time. METHODS: We aimed to collate population-level data on place of death in Europe from 2005 to 2017, and to evaluate association with national characteristics and policy choices. We sought data on hospital as the place of death from the 32 European Economic Area countries. We identified national economic, societal, demographic and health system predictors from Eurostat, OECD and the WHO. We analyzed these cross-national panel data using linear regression with panel-corrected standard errors. RESULTS: Our analytic dataset included 30 countries accounting for over 95% of Europe's population. Average national proportion of deaths occurring in hospital in the study period ranged from 26% to 68%, with a median of 52%. Trends vary markedly by region and wealth, with low and decreasing rate in the North-West, and high and increasing prevalence in the South and East. Controlling for demographic and economic factors, strong palliative care provision and generous government finance of long-term care were associated with fewer hospital deaths. CONCLUSIONS: We found modifiable policy choices associated with hospital mortality, as well as wider structural economic and societal factors. Policymakers can act to reduce the proportion of dying in hospital.

The association between varying levels of palliative care involvement on costs during terminal hospitalizations in Canada from 2012 to 2015.

BACKGROUND: Inpatient palliative care is associated with lower inpatient costs; however, this has yet to be studied using a more nuanced, multi-tiered measure of inpatient palliative care and a national population-representative dataset. Using a population-based cohort of Canadians who died in hospital, our objectives were to: describe patients' receipt of palliative care and active interventions in their terminal hospitalization; and examine the relationship between inpatient palliative care and hospitalization costs. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using data from the Discharge Abstract Database in Canada between fiscal years 2012 and 2015. The cohort were Canadian adults (age ≥ 18 years) who died in hospital between April 1st, 2012 and March 31st, 2015 (N = 250,640). The exposure was level of palliative care involvement defined as: medium-high, low, or no palliative care. The main measure was acute care costs calculated using resource intensity weights multiplied by the cost of standard hospital stay, represented in 2014 Canadian dollars (CAD). Descriptive statistics were represented as median (IQR), and n(%). We modelled cost as a function of palliative care using a gamma generalized estimating equation (GEE) model, accounting for clustering by hospital. RESULTS: There were 250,640 adults who died in hospital. Mean age was 76 (SD 14), 47% were female. The most common comorbidities were: metastatic cancer (21%), heart failure (21%), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (16%). Of the decedents, 95,450 (38%) had no palliative care involvement, 98,849 (38%) received low involvement, and 60,341 (24%) received medium to high involvement. Controlling for age, sex, province and predicted hospital mortality risk at admission, the cost per day of a terminal hospitalization was: $1359 (95% CI 1323: 1397) (no involvement), $1175 (95% CI 1146: 1206) (low involvement), and $744 (95% CI 728: 760) (medium-high involvement). CONCLUSIONS: Increased involvement of palliative care was associated with lower costs. Future research should explore whether this relationship holds for non-terminal hospitalizations, and whether palliative care in other settings impacts inpatient costs.

Linking death registration and survey data: Procedures and cohort profile for The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).

Background: Research on mortality at the population level has been severely restricted by an absence of linked death registration and survey data in Ireland. We describe the steps taken to link death registration information with survey data from a nationally representative prospective study of community-dwelling older adults. We also provide a profile of decedents among this cohort and compare mortality rates to population-level mortality data. Finally, we compare the utility of analysing underlying versus contributory causes of death. Methods: Death records were obtained for 779 and linked to individual level survey data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).   Results: Overall, 9.1% of participants died during the nine-year follow-up period and the average age at death was 75.3 years. Neoplasms were identified as the underlying cause of death for 37.0%; 32.9% of deaths were attributable to diseases of the circulatory system; 14.4% due to diseases of the respiratory system; while the remaining 15.8% of deaths occurred due to all other causes. Mortality rates among younger TILDA participants closely aligned with those observed in the population but TILDA mortality rates were slightly lower in the older age groups. Contributory cause of death provides similar estimates as underlying cause when we examined the association between smoking and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Conclusions: This new data infrastructure provides many opportunities to contribute to our understanding of the social, behavioural, economic, and health antecedents to mortality and to inform public policies aimed at addressing inequalities in mortality and end-of-life care.

Economics of Palliative Care for Cancer: Interpreting Current Evidence, Mapping Future Priorities for Research.

The National Cancer Institute estimates that $154 billion will be spent on care for people with cancer in 2019, distributed across the year after diagnosis (31%), the final year of life (31%), and continuing care between those two (38%). Projections of future costs estimate persistent growth in care expenditures. Early research studies on the economics of palliative care have reported a general pattern of cost savings during inpatient hospital admissions and the end-of-life phase. Recent research has demonstrated more complex dynamics, but expanding palliative care capacity to meet clinical guidelines and population health needs seems to save costs. Quantifying these cost savings requires additional research, because there is significant variance in estimates of the effects of treatment on costs, depending on the timing of intervention, the primary diagnosis, and the overall illness burden. Because ASCO guidelines state that palliative care should be provided concurrently with other treatment from the point of diagnosis onward for all metastatic cancer, new and ambitious research is required to evaluate the cost effects of palliative care across the entire disease trajectory. We propose a series of ways to reach the guideline goals.

End-of-life experience for older adults in Ireland: results from the Irish longitudinal study on ageing (TILDA).

BACKGROUND: End-of-life experience is a subject of significant policy interest. National longitudinal studies offer valuable opportunities to examine individual-level experiences. Ireland is an international leader in palliative and end-of-life care rankings. We aimed to describe the prevalence of modifiable problems (pain, falls, depression) in Ireland, and to evaluate associations with place of death, healthcare utilisation, and formal and informal costs in the last year of life. METHODS: The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) is a nationally representative sample of over-50-year-olds, recruited in Wave 1 (2009-2010) and participating in biannual assessment. In the event of a participant's death, TILDA approaches a close relative or friend to complete a voluntary interview on end-of-life experience. We evaluated associations using multinomial logistic regression for place of death, ordinary least squares for utilisation, and generalised linear models for costs. We identified 14 independent variables for regressions from a rich set of potential predictors. Of 516 confirmed deaths between Waves 1 and 3, the analytic sample contained 375 (73%) decedents for whom proxies completed an interview. RESULTS: There was high prevalence of modifiable problems pain (50%), depression (45%) and falls (41%). Those with a cancer diagnosis were more likely to die at home (relative risk ratio: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.3-4.8) or in an inpatient hospice (10.2; 2.7-39.2) than those without. Place of death and patterns of health care use were determined not only by clinical need, but other factors including age and household structure. Unpaid care accounted for 37% of all care received but access to this care, as well as place of death, may be adversely affected by living alone or in a rural area. Deficits in unpaid care are not balanced by higher formal care use. CONCLUSIONS: Despite Ireland's well-established palliative care services, clinical need is not the sole determinant of end-of-life experience. Cancer diagnosis and access to family supports were additional key determinants. Future policy reforms should revisit persistent inequities by diagnosis, which may be mitigated through comprehensive geriatric assessment in hospitals. Further consideration of policies to support unpaid carers is also warranted.

Evaluating Hospital Readmissions for Persons With Serious and Complex Illness: A Competing Risks Approach.

Hospital readmission rate is a ubiquitous measure of efficiency and quality. Individuals with life-limiting illnesses account heavily for admissions but evaluation is complicated by high-mortality rates. We report a retrospective cohort study examining the association between palliative care (PC) and readmissions while controlling for postdischarge mortality with a competing risks approach. Eligible participants were adult inpatients admitted to an academic, safety-net medical center (2009-2015) with at least one diagnosis of cancer, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, liver failure, kidney failure, AIDS/HIV, and selected neurodegenerative conditions. PC was associated with reduced 30-, 60-, and 90-day readmissions (subhazard ratios = 0.57, 0.53, and 0.52, respectively [all p < .001]). Hospital PC is associated with a reduction in readmissions, and this is not explained by higher mortality among PC patients. Performance measures only counting those alive at a given end point may underestimate systematically the effects of treatments with a high-mortality rate.