Childhood screening for type 1 diabetes comparing automated multiplex Antibody Detection by Agglutination-PCR (ADAP) with single plex islet autoantibody radiobinding assays.

BACKGROUND: Two or more autoantibodies against either insulin (IAA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA), islet antigen-2 (IA-2A) or zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8A) denote stage 1 (normoglycemia) or stage 2 (dysglycemia) type 1 diabetes prior to stage 3 type 1 diabetes. Automated multiplex Antibody Detection by Agglutination-PCR (ADAP) assays in two laboratories were compared to single plex radiobinding assays (RBA) to define threshold levels for diagnostic specificity and sensitivity. METHODS: IAA, GADA, IA-2A and ZnT8A were analysed in 1504 (54% females) population based controls (PBC), 456 (55% females) doctor's office controls (DOC) and 535 (41% females) blood donor controls (BDC) as well as in 2300 (48% females) patients newly diagnosed (1-10 years of age) with stage 3 type 1 diabetes. The thresholds for autoantibody positivity were computed in 100 10-fold cross-validations to separate patients from controls either by maximizing the χ2-statistics (chisq) or using the 98th percentile of specificity (Spec98). Mean and 95% CI for threshold, sensitivity and specificity are presented. FINDINGS: The ADAP ROC curves of the four autoantibodies showed comparable AUC in the two ADAP laboratories and were higher than RBA. Detection of two or more autoantibodies using chisq showed 0.97 (0.95, 0.99) sensitivity and 0.94 (0.91, 0.97) specificity in ADAP compared to 0.90 (0.88, 0.95) sensitivity and 0.97 (0.94, 0.98) specificity in RBA. Using Spec98, ADAP showed 0.92 (0.89, 0.95) sensitivity and 0.99 (0.98, 1.00) specificity compared to 0.89 (0.77, 0.86) sensitivity and 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) specificity in the RBA. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were higher in PBC compared to DOC and BDC. INTERPRETATION: ADAP was comparable in two laboratories, both comparable to or better than RBA, to define threshold levels for two or more autoantibodies to stage type 1 diabetes. FUNDING: Supported by The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust (grant number 2009-04078), the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research (Dnr IRC15-0067) and the Swedish Research Council, Strategic Research Area (Dnr 2009-1039). AL was supported by the DiaUnion collaborative study, co-financed by EU Interreg ÖKS, Capital Region of Denmark, Region Skåne and the Novo Nordisk Foundation.

Serum ghrelin and esophageal and gastric cancer in two cohorts in China.

Ghrelin is a hormone produced in the oxyntic glands of the stomach. Previous work by our group has suggested that serum ghrelin concentrations are inversely associated with gastric and esophageal cancer risk. We measured ghrelin concentrations in the Linxian General Population Nutrition Intervention Trial (NIT), and the Shanghai Women's Health Study (SWHS). In NIT, we analyzed serum samples from 298 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) cases, 518 gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) cases, 258 gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA) cases and 770 subcohort controls (case-cohort). In SWHS, we measured ghrelin in plasma samples from 249 GNCA cases and 498 matched controls (nested case-control). Ghrelin was measured using radioimmunoassay. In NIT and SWHS, low ghrelin concentrations were associated with an increased risk of developing GNCA and GCA. The hazard ratio (HR Q1:Q4 ) for GNCA in NIT was 1.35 (95% CI: 0.89-2.05; p-trend = 0.02); the odds ratio in SWHS was 1.66 (95% CI: 1.02-2.70; p-trend = 0.06). Low ghrelin was associated with a twofold increase of GCA (HR Q1:Q4 = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.45-2.77; p-trend<0.001). In contrast, a lower risk of ESCC (NIT ESCC HR Q1:Q4 = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.45-0.92; p-trend = 0.02) was found in NIT. Low baseline ghrelin concentrations were associated with an increased risk for GNCA and GCA in the NIT and the SWHS. In contrast, low ghrelin concentrations at baseline were associated with a reduced risk of developing ESCC in the NIT. Ghrelin may be an early marker of future cancer risk for developing upper gastrointestinal cancer in regions of high incidence.

Inference for case-control studies with incident and prevalent cases.

We propose and study a fully efficient method to estimate associations of an exposure with disease incidence when both, incident cases and prevalent cases, i.e., individuals who were diagnosed with the disease at some prior time point and are alive at the time of sampling, are included in a case-control study. We extend the exponential tilting model for the relationship between exposure and case status to accommodate two case groups, and correct for the survival bias in the prevalent cases through a tilting term that depends on the parametric distribution of the backward time, i.e., the time from disease diagnosis to study enrollment. We construct an empirical likelihood that also incorporates the observed backward times for prevalent cases, obtain efficient estimates of odds ratio parameters that relate exposure to disease incidence and propose a likelihood ratio test for model parameters that has a standard chi-squared distribution. We quantify the changes in efficiency of association parameters when incident cases are supplemented with, or replaced by, prevalent cases in simulations. We illustrate our methods by estimating associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with breast cancer incidence in a sample of controls, incident and prevalent cases from the U.S. Radiologic Technologists Health Study.

Evaluating longitudinal markers under two-phase study designs.

Little attention has been given to the design of efficient studies to evaluate longitudinal biomarkers. Measuring longitudinal markers on an entire cohort is cost prohibitive and, especially for rare outcomes such as cancer, may be infeasible. Thus, methods for evaluation of longitudinal biomarkers using efficient and cost-effective study designs are needed. Case cohort (CCH) and nested case-control (NCC) studies allow investigators to evaluate biomarkers rigorously and at reduced cost, with only a small loss in precision. In this article, we develop estimators of several measures to evaluate the accuracy and discrimination of predicted risk under CCH and NCC study designs. We use double inverse probability weighting (DIPW) to account for censoring and sampling bias in estimation and inference procedures. We study the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators. To facilitate inference using two-phase longitudinal data, we develop valid resampling-based variance estimation procedures under CCH and NCC. We evaluate the performance of our estimators under CCH and NCC using simulation studies and illustrate them on a NCC study within the hepatitis C antiviral long-term treatment against cirrhosis (HALT-C) clinical trial. Our estimators and inference procedures perform well under CCH and NCC, provided that the sample size at the time of prediction (effective sample size) is reasonable. These methods are widely applicable, efficient, and cost-effective and can be easily adapted to other study designs used to evaluate prediction rules in a longitudinal setting.

A cross-sectional study of asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infection burden and risk factors in general population children in 12 villages in northern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum malaria is an important cause of morbidity in northern Uganda. This study was undertaken to assess village-, household-, and individual-level risk factors of asymptomatic falciparum malaria in children in 12 villages in northern Uganda. METHODS: Between 10/2011 and 02/2014, 1006 apparently healthy children under 16 years old were enrolled in 12 villages using a stratified, multi-stage, cluster survey design and assessed for P. falciparum malaria infection using the rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and thick film microscopy (TFM), and structured interviewer-administered questionnaires. Associations between weighted P. falciparum malaria prevalence (pfPR), based on RDT, and covariates were estimated as odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (ORs, 95% CIs) using logistic models accounting for the survey design. RESULTS: Among 942 (93.5%) children successfully tested, pfPR was 52.4% by RDT and 32.7% by TFM. Overall pfPR was lower in villages where indoor residual insecticide spray (IRS) was, versus not, implemented (18.4% versus 75.2%, P < 0.0001). However, pfPR was heterogeneous both within IRS (10.6-34.8%) and non-IRS villages (63.6-86.2%). Elevated pfPR was associated with having a sibling who was RDT positive (OR 5.39, 95% CI 2.94-9.90, P = 0.0006) and reporting a fever at enrollment (aOR 4.80, 95% CI 1.94-11.9, P = 0.0094). Decreased pfPR was associated with living in an IRS village (adjusted OR 0.06, 95% CI 0.04-0.07, P < 0.0001), in a household with one (aOR 0.48, 95% CI 0.30-0.76) or more than one child below 5 years (aOR 0.23, 95% CI 0.12-0.44, Ptrend = 0.014), and reporting keeping a goat inside or near the house (aOR 0.42, 95% CI 0.29-0.62, P = 0.0021). CONCLUSIONS: The results show high but heterogeneous pfPR in villages in northern Uganda, confirm significantly decreased pfPR associated with IRS implementation, and suggest significant associations with some household characteristics. Further research is needed to elucidate the factors influencing malaria heterogeneity in villages in Uganda.

Using standard microbiome reference groups to simplify beta-diversity analyses and facilitate independent validation.

Motivation: Comparisons of microbiome communities across populations are often based on pairwise distance measures (beta-diversity). Standard analyses (principal coordinate plots, permutation tests, kernel methods) require access to primary data if another investigator wants to add or compare independent data. We propose using standard reference measurements to simplify microbiome beta-diversity analyses, to make them more transparent, and to facilitate independent validation and comparisons across studies. Results: Using stool and nasal reference sets from the Human Microbiome Project (HMP), we computed mean distances (actually Bray-Curtis or Pearson correlation dissimilarities) to each reference set for each new sample. Thus, each new sample has two mean distances that can be plotted and analyzed with classical statistical methods. To test the approach, we studied independent (not reference) HMP subjects. Simple Hotelling tests demonstrated statistically significant differences in mean distances to reference sets between all pairs of body sites (stool, skin, nasal, saliva and vagina) at the phylum, class, order, family and genus levels. Using the distance to a single reference set was usually sufficient, but using both reference sets always worked well. The use of reference sets simplifies standard analyses of beta-diversity and facilitates the independent validation and combining of such data because others can compute distances to the same reference sets. Moreover, standard statistical methods for survival analysis, logistic regression and other procedures can be applied to vectors of mean distances to reference sets, thereby greatly expanding the potential uses of beta-diversity information. More work is needed to identify the best reference sets for particular applications. Availability and implementation: https://github.com/NCI-biostats/microbiome-fixed-reference. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Age and geographic patterns of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection in a representative sample of children living in Burkitt lymphoma-endemic areas of northern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Falciparum malaria is an important risk factor for African Burkitt lymphoma (BL), but few studies have evaluated malaria patterns in healthy BL-age children in populations where both diseases are endemic. To obtain accurate current data, patterns of asymptomatic malaria were investigated in northern Uganda, where BL is endemic. METHODS: Between 2011 and 2015, 1150 apparently healthy children under 15 years old were sampled from 100 villages in northern Uganda using a stratified, multi-stage, cluster survey design. Falciparum malaria prevalence (pfPR) was assessed by questionnaire, rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and thick film microscopy (TFM). Weighted pfPR and unadjusted and adjusted associations of prevalence with covariates were calculated using logistic models and survey methods. RESULTS: Based on 1143 children successfully tested, weighted pfPR was 54.8% by RDT and 43.4% by TFM. RDT sensitivity and specificity were 97.5 and 77.8%, respectively, as compared to TFM, because RDT detect malaria antigens, which persist in peripheral blood after clinical malaria, thus results based on RDT are reported. Weighted pfPR increased from 40% in children aged under 2 years to 61.8% in children aged 6-8 years (odds ratio 2.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26-4.65), then fell slightly to 49% in those aged 12-15 years. Geometric mean parasite density was 1805.5 parasites/µL (95% CI 1344.6-2424.3) among TFM-positive participants, and it was higher in children aged <5 years at 5092.9/µL (95% CI 2892.7-8966.8) and lower in those aged ≥10 years at 983.8/µL (95% CI 472.7-2047.4; P = 0.001). Weighted pfPR was lower in children residing in sub-regions employing indoor residual spraying (IRS) than in those residing in non-IRS sub-regions (32.8 versus 65.7%; OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.14, 0.46). However, pfPR varied both within IRS (3.2-55.3%) and non-IRS sub-regions (29.8-75.8%; Pheterogeneity <0.001). pfPR was inversely correlated with a child's mother's income (P = 0.011) and positively correlated with being enrolled in the wet season (P = 0.076), but sex was irrelevant. CONCLUSIONS: The study observed high but geographically and demographically heterogenous patterns of asymptomatic malaria prevalence among children living in northern Uganda. These results provide important baseline data that will enable precise evaluation of associations between malaria and BL.

Plasma-free fatty acids, fatty acid-binding protein 4, and mortality in older adults (from the Cardiovascular Health Study).

Plasma-free fatty acids (FFAs) are largely derived from adipose tissue. Elevated levels of FFA and fatty acid-binding protein 4 (FABP4), a key cytoplasmic chaperone of fatty acids, have been associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes, but limited data are available on the relation of these biomarkers with cardiovascular and total mortality. We studied 4,707 participants with a mean age of 75 years who had plasma FFA and FABP4 measured in 1992 to 1993 as part of the Cardiovascular Health Study, an observational cohort of community-dwelling older adults. Over a median follow-up of 11.8 years, 3,555 participants died. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine the association between FFA, FABP4, and mortality. In fully adjusted models, FFA were associated with dose-dependent significantly higher total mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per SD: 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09 to 1.18), but FABP4 levels were not (HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.09). In a cause-specific mortality analysis, higher concentrations of FFA were associated with significantly higher risk of death because of cardiovascular disease, dementia, infection, and respiratory causes but not cancer or trauma. We did not find evidence of an interaction between FFA and FABP4 (p = 0.45), but FABP4 appeared to be associated with total mortality differentially in men and women (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.26 for men; HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.07 for women, interaction p value <0.001). In conclusion, in a cohort of community-dwelling older subjects, elevated plasma concentrations of FFA, but not FABP4, were associated with cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality.

Activation of enteroendocrine membrane progesterone receptors promotes incretin secretion and improves glucose tolerance in mice.

Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) secretion is classically regulated by ingested nutrients. To identify novel molecular targets controlling incretin secretion, we analyzed enteroendocrine cell pathways important for hormone biosynthesis and secretion. We demonstrate that progesterone increases GLP-1 secretion and extracellular signal-related kinase 1/2 (ERK1/2) phosphorylation in enteroendocrine GLUTag cells via mechanisms sensitive to the mitogen-activated protein kinase inhibitor U0126. The stimulatory effects of progesterone (P4) or the synthetic progestin R5020 on ERK1/2 phosphorylation were independent of the classical progesterone receptor antagonist RU486. Furthermore, a cell-impermeable BSA-progesterone conjugate rapidly increased ERK1/2 phosphorylation and GLP-1 secretion. Knockdown of the membrane progesterone receptors Paqr5 or Paqr7 in GLUTag cells eliminated the stimulatory effect of R5020 and progesterone on GLP-1 secretion. Enteral progesterone administration increased plasma levels of GLP-1, glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP), and insulin, and improved oral glucose tolerance in an RU486-insensitve manner in mice: however, systemic progesterone exposure did not improve glucose homeostasis. Unexpectedly, the glucoregulatory actions of enteral progesterone did not require classical incretin receptor signaling and were preserved in Glp1r(-/-) and Glp1r(-/-):Gipr(-/-) mice. Intestine-restricted activation of membrane progesterone receptors may represent a novel approach for stimulation of incretin hormone secretion and control of glucose homeostasis.

ErbB signaling is required for the proliferative actions of GLP-2 in the murine gut.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Glucagon-like peptide-2 (GLP-2) is a 33-amino acid peptide hormone secreted by enteroendocrine cells in response to nutrient ingestion. GLP-2 stimulates crypt cell proliferation leading to expansion of the mucosal epithelium; however, the mechanisms transducing the trophic effects of GLP-2 are incompletely understood. METHODS: We examined the gene expression profiles and growth-promoting actions of GLP-2 in normal mice in the presence or absence of an inhibitor of ErbB receptor signaling, in Glp2r(-/-) mice and in Egfr(wa2) mice harboring a hypomorphic point mutation in the epidermal growth factor receptor. RESULTS: Exogenous GLP-2 administration rapidly induced the expression of a subset of ErbB ligands including amphiregulin, epiregulin, and heparin binding (HB)-epidermal growth factor, in association with induction of immediate early gene expression in the small and large bowel. These actions of GLP-2 required a functional GLP-2 receptor because they were eliminated in Glp2r(-/-) mice. In contrast, insulin-like growth factor-I and keratinocyte growth factor, previously identified mediators of GLP-2 action, had no effect on the expression of these ErbB ligands. The GLP-2-mediated induction of ErbB ligand expression was not metalloproteinase inhibitor sensitive but was significantly diminished in Egfr(wa2) mice and completed abrogated in wild-type mice treated with the pan-ErbB inhibitor CI-1033. Furthermore, the stimulatory actions of GLP-2 on crypt cell proliferation and bowel growth were eliminated in the presence of CI-1033. CONCLUSIONS: These findings identify the ErbB signaling network as a target for GLP-2 action leading to stimulation of growth factor-dependent signal transduction and bowel growth in vivo.