Implanted intrathecal drug delivery systems may be associated with improved survival in patients with cancer.

Background: Intrathecal Drug Delivery Systems (IDDS) are underused in the management of cancer-related pain despite evidence of both efficacy and survival benefit. There is currently limited evidence to indicate which patients might benefit most from IDDS. Aim: The aim of the study was to describe the baseline characteristics and survival outcomes of patients who accepted IDDS, patients who declined IDDS and patients who wished to go ahead with IDDS but whose condition deteriorated before they could do so. Design/participants: The survival data for 75 consecutive patients who had been offered intrathecal drug delivery were examined as part of a retrospective cohort study. Survival data was compared between three groups: those who accepted intrathecal drug delivery and went on to receive it (n = 41), those who accepted it but whose condition deteriorated before it commenced (n = 17) and those who declined this treatment modality (n = 17). Results: Patients who received IDDS survived significantly longer after assessment compared to those who declined IDDS (hazard ratio (HR) for the IDDS group relative to the declined group 0.29 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.53), and 0.23 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.44) after adjustment for gender and baseline functional status. In patients who accepted IDDS but who were unable to commence treatment, survival after assessment was not significantly different from those who declined the IDDS (HR for the deteriorated group relative to the declined group 1.28 (95% CI 0.65 to 2.53), and 0.80 (95% CI 0.65 to 2.53) after adjustment for gender and baseline functional status). Conclusion: In this retrospective analysis, an improvement in survival may be associated with patients who accept ongoing pain management with an implanted intrathecal drug delivery system compared to those patients who either declined intrathecal drug delivery or deteriorated before it could be commenced.

Allopurinol and blood pressure variability following ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack: a secondary analysis of XILO-FIST.

Blood Pressure Variability (BPV) is associated with cardiovascular risk and serum uric acid level. We investigated whether BPV was lowered by allopurinol and whether it was related to neuroimaging markers of cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) and cognition. We used data from a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of two years allopurinol treatment after recent ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack. Visit-to-visit BPV was assessed using brachial blood pressure (BP) recordings. Short-term BPV was assessed using ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) performed at 4 weeks and 2 years. Brain MRI was performed at baseline and 2 years. BPV measures were compared between the allopurinol and placebo groups, and with CSVD and cognition. 409 participants (205 allopurinol; 204 placebo) were included in the visit-to-visit BPV analyses. There were no significant differences found between placebo and allopurinol groups for any measure of visit-to-visit BPV. 196 participants were included in analyses of short-term BPV at week 4. Two measures were reduced by allopurinol: the standard deviation (SD) of systolic BP (by 1.30 mmHg (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.18-2.42, p = 0.023)); and the average real variability (ARV) of systolic BP (by 1.31 mmHg (95% CI 0.31-2.32, p = 0.011)). There were no differences in other measures at week 4 or in any measure at 2 years, and BPV was not associated with CSVD or cognition. Allopurinol treatment did not affect visit-to-visit BPV in people with recent ischemic stroke or TIA. Two BPV measures were reduced at week 4 by allopurinol but not at 2 years.

Dropout from exercise trials among cancer survivors-An individual patient data meta-analysis from the POLARIS study.

INTRODUCTION: The number of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the effects of exercise among cancer survivors has increased in recent years; however, participants dropping out of the trials are rarely described. The objective of the present study was to assess which combinations of participant and exercise program characteristics were associated with dropout from the exercise arms of RCTs among cancer survivors. METHODS: This study used data collected in the Predicting OptimaL cAncer RehabIlitation and Supportive care (POLARIS) study, an international database of RCTs investigating the effects of exercise among cancer survivors. Thirty-four exercise trials, with a total of 2467 patients without metastatic disease randomized to an exercise arm were included. Harmonized studies included a pre and a posttest, and participants were classified as dropouts when missing all assessments at the post-intervention test. Subgroups were identified with a conditional inference tree. RESULTS: Overall, 9.6% of the participants dropped out. Five subgroups were identified in the conditional inference tree based on four significant associations with dropout. Most dropout was observed for participants with BMI >28.4 kg/m2 , performing supervised resistance or unsupervised mixed exercise (19.8% dropout) or had low-medium education and performed aerobic or supervised mixed exercise (13.5%). The lowest dropout was found for participants with BMI >28.4 kg/m2 and high education performing aerobic or supervised mixed exercise (5.1%), and participants with BMI ≤28.4 kg/m2 exercising during (5.2%) or post (9.5%) treatment. CONCLUSIONS: There are several systematic differences between cancer survivors completing and dropping out from exercise trials, possibly affecting the external validity of exercise effects.

Impact of weight loss on cancer-related proteins in serum: results from a cluster randomised controlled trial of individuals with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes is associated with higher risk of several cancer types. However, the biological intermediates driving this relationship are not fully understood. As novel interventions for treating and managing type 2 diabetes become increasingly available, whether they also disrupt the pathways leading to increased cancer risk is currently unknown. We investigated the effect of a type 2 diabetes intervention, in the form of intentional weight loss, on circulating proteins associated with cancer risk to gain insight into potential mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and adiposity with cancer development. METHODS: Fasting serum samples from participants with diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) receiving the Counterweight-Plus weight-loss programme (intervention, N = 117, mean weight-loss 10 kg, 46% diabetes remission) or best-practice care by guidelines (control, N = 143, mean weight-loss 1 kg, 4% diabetes remission) were subject to proteomic analysis using the Olink Oncology-II platform (48% of participants were female; 52% male). To identify proteins which may be altered by the weight-loss intervention, the difference in protein levels between groups at baseline and 1 year was examined using linear regression. Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed to extend these results to evaluate cancer risk and elucidate possible biological mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and cancer development. MR analyses were conducted using independent datasets, including large cancer meta-analyses, UK Biobank, and FinnGen, to estimate potential causal relationships between proteins modified during intentional weight loss and the risk of colorectal, breast, endometrial, gallbladder, liver, and pancreatic cancers. FINDINGS: Nine proteins were modified by the intervention: glycoprotein Nmb; furin; Wnt inhibitory factor 1; toll-like receptor 3; pancreatic prohormone; erb-b2 receptor tyrosine kinase 2; hepatocyte growth factor; endothelial cell specific molecule 1 and Ret proto-oncogene (Holm corrected P-value <0.05). Mendelian randomization analyses indicated a causal relationship between predicted circulating furin and glycoprotein Nmb on breast cancer risk (odds ratio (OR) = 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.67-0.99, P-value = 0.03; and OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.78-0.99, P-value = 0.04 respectively), though these results were not supported in sensitivity analyses examining violations of MR assumptions. INTERPRETATION: Intentional weight loss among individuals with recently diagnosed diabetes may modify levels of cancer-related proteins in serum. Further evaluation of the proteins identified in this analysis could reveal molecular pathways that mediate the effect of adiposity and type 2 diabetes on cancer risk. FUNDING: The main sources of funding for this work were Diabetes UK, Cancer Research UK, World Cancer Research Fund, and Wellcome.

A novel, small-volume subcutaneous furosemide formulation delivered by an abdominal patch infusor device in patients with heart failure: results of two phase I studies.

AIMS: Subcutaneous (SC) furosemide has potential advantages over intravenous (IV) furosemide by enabling self-administration or administration by a lay caregiver, such as facilitating early discharge, preventing hospitalizations, and in palliative care. A high-concentration, pH-neutral furosemide formulation has been developed for SC administration via a small patch infusor pump. We aimed to compare the bioavailability, pharmacokinetic (PK), and pharmacodynamic (PD) profiles of a new SC furosemide formulation with conventional IV furosemide and describe the first use of a bespoke mini-pump to administer this formulation. METHODS AND RESULTS: A novel pH-neutral formulation of SC furosemide containing 80 mg furosemide in ∼2.7 mL (infused over 5 h) was investigated. The first study was a PK/PD study of SC furosemide compared with 80 mg IV furosemide administered as a bolus in ambulatory patients with heart failure (HF). The primary outcome was absolute bioavailability of SC compared with IV furosemide. The second study investigated the same SC furosemide preparation delivered by a patch infusor in patients hospitalized with HF. Primary outcome measures were treatment-emergent adverse events, infusion site pain, device performance, and PK measurements.The absolute bioavailability of SC furosemide in comparison to IV furosemide was 112%, resulting in equivalent diuresis and natriuresis. When SC furosemide was administered via the patch pump, there were no treatment-emergent adverse events and 95% of participants reported no/minor discomfort at the infusion site. CONCLUSION: The novel preparation of SC furosemide had similar bioavailability to IV furosemide. Administration via a patch pump was feasible and well tolerated.

Using trials of caloric restriction and bariatric surgery to explore the effects of body mass index on the circulating proteome.

Thousands of proteins circulate in the bloodstream; identifying those which associate with weight and intervention-induced weight loss may help explain mechanisms of diseases associated with adiposity. We aimed to identify consistent protein signatures of weight loss across independent studies capturing changes in body mass index (BMI). We analysed proteomic data from studies implementing caloric restriction (Diabetes Remission Clinical trial) and bariatric surgery (By-Band-Sleeve), using SomaLogic and Olink Explore1536 technologies, respectively. Linear mixed models were used to estimate the effect of the interventions on circulating proteins. Twenty-three proteins were altered in a consistent direction after both bariatric surgery and caloric restriction, suggesting that these proteins are modulated by weight change, independent of intervention type. We also integrated Mendelian randomisation (MR) estimates of the effect of BMI on proteins measured by SomaLogic from a UK blood donor cohort as a third line of causal evidence. These MR estimates provided further corroborative evidence for a role of BMI in regulating the levels of six proteins including alcohol dehydrogenase-4, nogo receptor and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist protein. These results indicate the importance of triangulation in interrogating causal relationships; further study into the role of proteins modulated by weight in disease is now warranted.

More time in a community setting: A service evaluation of the impact of intrathecal drug delivery systems on place of care of patients with cancer pain.

BACKGROUND: Intrathecal Drug Delivery Systems are underutilised in the management of refractory cancer pain despite evidence of their efficacy. Not all patients who are offered this treatment modality accept it. There is no current evidence that indicates if the use of intrathecal drug delivery systems impacts on place of care for patients with cancer related pain. AIMS: This service evaluation compared place of care, place of death and morphine equivalent daily dose at end of life for patients in whom Intrathecal Drug Delivery was successfully established versus those who chose comprehensive medical management. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study of 45 patients with cancer pain comparing those who had ongoing analgesia successfully delivered via an implanted Intrathecal Drug Delivery System (n = 28) with those who continued to receive comprehensive medical management (n = 17). RESULTS: There was a markedly greater time spent in the community in the intrathecal group than the medical management group (median 126.5vs 25.5 days; p = 0.002) and a lower morphine equivalent daily dose at end of life (median 127.5vs 440.0 p = 0.022). CONCLUSION: In patients with advanced cancer, the successful establishment of intrathecal analgesia is associated with more time in the community and a lower morphine equivalent daily dose at end of life. The study has low numbers, and the sample was retrospectively selected. Nevertheless, these findings suggest the initial investment of time in an inpatient setting may be beneficial. Further research is required, using larger, prospective studies of patient outcomes in this setting.

Increasing uptake of FIT colorectal screening: protocol for the TEMPO randomised controlled trial testing a suggested deadline and a planning tool.

INTRODUCTION: Screening can reduce deaths from colorectal cancer (CRC). Despite high levels of public enthusiasm, participation rates in population CRC screening programmes internationally remain persistently below target levels. Simple behavioural interventions such as completion goals and planning tools may support participation among those inclined to be screened but who fail to act on their intentions. This study aims to evaluate the impact of: (a) a suggested deadline for return of the test; (b) a planning tool and (c) the combination of a deadline and planning tool on return of faecal immunochemical tests (FITs) for CRC screening. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A randomised controlled trial of 40 000 adults invited to participate in the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme will assess the individual and combined impact of the interventions. Trial delivery will be integrated into the existing CRC screening process. The Scottish Bowel Screening Programme mails FITs to people aged 50-74 with brief instructions for completion and return. Participants will be randomised to one of eight groups: (1) no intervention; (2) suggested deadline (1 week); (3) suggested deadline (2 weeks); (4) suggested deadline (4 weeks); (5) planning tool; (6) planning tool plus suggested deadline (1 week); (7) planning tool plus suggested deadline (2 weeks); (8) planning tool plus suggested deadline (4 weeks). The primary outcome is return of the correctly completed FIT at 3 months. To understand the cognitive and behavioural mechanisms and to explore the acceptability of both interventions, we will survey (n=2000) and interview (n=40) a subgroup of trial participants. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the National Health Service South Central-Hampshire B Research Ethics Committee (ref. 19/SC/0369). The findings will be disseminated through conference presentations and publication in peer-reviewed journals. Participants can request a summary of the results. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: clinicaltrials.govNCT05408169.

Vascular mechanisms of post-COVID-19 conditions: Rho-kinase is a novel target for therapy.

BACKGROUND: In post-coronavirus disease-19 (post-COVID-19) conditions (long COVID), systemic vascular dysfunction is implicated, but the mechanisms are uncertain, and the treatment is imprecise. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients convalescing after hospitalization for COVID-19 and risk factor matched controls underwent multisystem phenotyping using blood biomarkers, cardiorenal and pulmonary imaging, and gluteal subcutaneous biopsy (NCT04403607). Small resistance arteries were isolated and examined using wire myography, histopathology, immunohistochemistry, and spatial transcriptomics. Endothelium-independent (sodium nitroprusside) and -dependent (acetylcholine) vasorelaxation and vasoconstriction to the thromboxane A2 receptor agonist, U46619, and endothelin-1 (ET-1) in the presence or absence of a RhoA/Rho-kinase inhibitor (fasudil), were investigated. Thirty-seven patients, including 27 (mean age 57 years, 48% women, 41% cardiovascular disease) 3 months post-COVID-19 and 10 controls (mean age 57 years, 20% women, 30% cardiovascular disease), were included. Compared with control responses, U46619-induced constriction was increased (P = 0.002) and endothelium-independent vasorelaxation was reduced in arteries from COVID-19 patients (P < 0.001). This difference was abolished by fasudil. Histopathology revealed greater collagen abundance in COVID-19 arteries {Masson's trichrome (MT) 69.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 67.8-71.7]; picrosirius red 68.6% [95% CI: 64.4-72.8]} vs. controls [MT 64.9% (95% CI: 59.4-70.3) (P = 0.028); picrosirius red 60.1% (95% CI: 55.4-64.8), (P = 0.029)]. Greater phosphorylated myosin light chain antibody-positive staining in vascular smooth muscle cells was observed in COVID-19 arteries (40.1%; 95% CI: 30.9-49.3) vs. controls (10.0%; 95% CI: 4.4-15.6) (P < 0.001). In proof-of-concept studies, gene pathways associated with extracellular matrix alteration, proteoglycan synthesis, and viral mRNA replication appeared to be upregulated. CONCLUSION: Patients with post-COVID-19 conditions have enhanced vascular fibrosis and myosin light change phosphorylation. Rho-kinase activation represents a novel therapeutic target for clinical trials.

Adverse Outcomes Associated With Interleukin-6 in Patients Recently Hospitalized for Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation may play a role in the pathophysiology of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. We examined whether circulating levels of interleukin-6 identify patients at greater risk of adverse outcomes following hospitalization with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. METHODS: We assessed relationships between interleukin-6 (IL-6) tertiles (T1-3) and all-cause death, cardiovascular death, and subsequent heart failure hospitalization (sHFH) in 286 patients recently hospitalized with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Associations between IL (interleukin)-6 and outcomes were examined in a Cox-regression model adjusted for risk factors including BNP (B-type natriuretic peptide). Biomarkers including hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) were assessed. RESULTS: The range of IL-6 (pg/mL) in each tertile was T1 (0.71-4.16), T2 (4.20-7.84), and T3 (7.9-236.32). Compared with T1, patients in the highest IL-6 tertile were more commonly male (56% versus 35%) and had higher creatinine (117±45 versus 101±36 µmol/L), hsCRP (11.6 [4.9-26.6]mg/L versus 2.3[1.1-4.2] mg/L). In univariable analysis, rates of all-cause death, cardiovascular death, and sHFH were higher in T3 versus T1. All-cause and cardiovascular death rates remained higher in T3 versus T1 after adjustment (P<0.001). One log unit increase in IL-6 was associated with higher risk of all-cause death (hazard ratio, 1.46 [1.17-1.81]), cardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 1.40 [1.10-1.77]), and sHFH (hazard ratio, 1.24 [1.01-1.51]) after adjustment. One log unit increase in hsCRP was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular death and all-cause death before and after adjustment for other factors but was not associated with risk of sHFH before or after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: In patients recently hospitalized with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, IL-6 is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, and sHFH after adjustment for risk factors including BNP. These findings are of particular relevance in the context of current anti-IL-6 drug development.

The presence and impact of multimorbidity clusters on adverse outcomes across the spectrum of kidney function.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity (the presence of two or more chronic conditions) is common amongst people with chronic kidney disease, but it is unclear which conditions cluster together and if this changes as kidney function declines. We explored which clusters of conditions are associated with different estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) and studied associations between these clusters and adverse outcomes. METHODS: Two population-based cohort studies were used: the Stockholm Creatinine Measurements project (SCREAM, Sweden, 2006-2018) and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank (SAIL, Wales, 2006-2021). We studied participants in SCREAM (404,681 adults) and SAIL (533,362) whose eGFR declined lower than thresholds (90, 75, 60, 45, 30 and 15 mL/min/1.73m2). Clusters based on 27 chronic conditions were identified. We described the most common chronic condition(s) in each cluster and studied their association with adverse outcomes using Cox proportional hazards models (all-cause mortality (ACM) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE)). RESULTS: Chronic conditions became more common and clustered differently across lower eGFR categories. At eGFR 90, 75, and 60 mL/min/1.73m2, most participants were in large clusters with no prominent conditions. At eGFR 15 and 30 mL/min/1.73m2, clusters involving cardiovascular conditions were larger and were at the highest risk of adverse outcomes. At eGFR 30 mL/min/1.73m2, in the heart failure, peripheral vascular disease and diabetes cluster in SCREAM, ACM hazard ratio (HR) is 2.66 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.31-3.07) and MACE HR is 4.18 (CI 3.65-4.78); in the heart failure and atrial fibrillation cluster in SAIL, ACM HR is 2.23 (CI 2.04 to 2.44) and MACE HR is 3.43 (CI 3.22-3.64). Chronic pain and depression were common and associated with adverse outcomes when combined with physical conditions. At eGFR 30 mL/min/1.73m2, in the chronic pain, heart failure and myocardial infarction cluster in SCREAM, ACM HR is 2.00 (CI 1.62-2.46) and MACE HR is 4.09 (CI 3.39-4.93); in the depression, chronic pain and stroke cluster in SAIL, ACM HR is 1.38 (CI 1.18-1.61) and MACE HR is 1.58 (CI 1.42-1.76). CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of multimorbidity and corresponding risk of adverse outcomes varied with declining eGFR. While diabetes and cardiovascular disease are known high-risk conditions, chronic pain and depression emerged as important conditions and associated with adverse outcomes when combined with physical conditions.

Antibiotic prophylaxis in breast cancer surgery (PAUS trial): randomised clinical double-blind parallel-group multicentre superiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Participants were patients with invasive breast cancer undergoing primary surgery. The aim was to test whether a single dose of amoxicillin-clavulanic acid would reduce wound infection at 30 days postoperatively, and to identify risk factors for infection. METHODS: Participants were randomised to either a single bolus of 1.2 g intravenous amoxicillin-clavulanic acid after the induction of anaesthesia (intervention) or no antibiotic (control). The primary outcome was the incidence of wound infection at 30 days postoperatively. RESULTS: There were 871 evaluable patients. Of these, 438 received prophylactic antibiotic and 433 served as controls. Seventy-one (16.2 per cent) patients in the intervention group developed a wound infection by 30 days, while there were 83 (19.2 per cent) infections in the control group. This was not statistically significant (odds ratio (OR) 0.82, 95 per cent c.i. 0.58 to 1.15; P = 0.250). The risk of infection increased for every 5 kg/m2 of BMI (OR 1.29, 95 per cent c.i. 1.10 to 1.52; P = 0.003). Patients who were preoperative carriers of Staphylococcus aureus had an increased risk of postoperative wound infection; however, there was no benefit of preoperative antibiotics for patients with either a high BMI or who were carriers of S. aureus. CONCLUSION: There was no statistically significant or clinically meaningful reduction in wound infection at 30 days following breast cancer surgery in patients who received a single dose of amoxicillin-clavulanic acid preoperatively. REGISTRATION NUMBER: N0399145605 (National Research Register).

There is little research about antibiotics in breast cancer surgery. Surgeons are not certain whether or not to use antibiotics for their patients. The aim of the Prophylactic Antibiotic Use in Surgery (PAUS) trial was to ask a question, 'Do preoperative antibiotics have any benefit for patients having surgery for breast cancer?' In the PAUS trial patients were given information to decide whether they wished to take part in the trial or not. Participants were randomly placed in one of two groups. Half were given one dose of the amoxicillin­clavulanic acid antibiotic at the time of their operation. The other half had no antibiotic. Neither the patient nor the surgeon knew which group the patient was in. Patients were carefully checked until 30 days after their operation for signs of wound infection. Altogether, 871 patients agreed to take part in the PAUS trial. Of these, 438 patients had the antibiotic and 433 had no antibiotic. The PAUS trial showed that there was no difference in the number of wound infections when comparing the two groups. Seventy-one patients (16.2 per cent) who had been given the antibiotic developed a wound infection by 30 days versus 83 (19.2 per cent) in the group who had not been given the antibiotic. This trial shows that antibiotics may not be needed for breast cancer surgery. PAUS may help to cut down on unnecessary antibiotic use.

European Society of Cardiology: cardiovascular disease statistics 2021: Executive Summary.

AIMS: This report from the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Atlas Project updates and expands upon the widely cited 2019 report in presenting cardiovascular disease (CVD) statistics for the 57 ESC member countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: Statistics pertaining to 2019, or the latest available year, are presented. Data sources include the World Health Organization, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the World Bank, and novel ESC sponsored data on human and capital infrastructure and cardiovascular healthcare delivery. New material in this report includes sociodemographic and environmental determinants of CVD, rheumatic heart disease, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, leftsided valvular heart disease, the advocacy potential of these CVD statistics, and progress towards World Health Organization (WHO) 2025 targets for non-communicable diseases. Salient observations in this report: (i) Females born in ESC member countries in 2018 are expected to live 80.8 years and males 74.8 years. Life expectancy is longer in high income (81.6 years) compared with middle-income (74.2 years) countries. (ii) In 2018, high-income countries spent, on average, four times more on healthcare than middle-income countries. (iii) The median PM2.5 concentrations in 2019 were over twice as high in middle-income ESC member countries compared with high-income countries and exceeded the EU air quality standard in 14 countries, all middle-income. (iv) In 2016, more than one in five adults across the ESC member countries were obese with similar prevalence in high and low-income countries. The prevalence of obesity has more than doubled over the past 35 years. (v) The burden of CVD falls hardest on middle-income ESC member countries where estimated incidence rates are ∼30% higher compared with high-income countries. This is reflected in disability-adjusted life years due to CVD which are nearly four times as high in middle-income compared with high-income countries. (vi) The incidence of calcific aortic valve disease has increased seven-fold during the last 30 years, with age-standardized rates four times as high in high-income compared with middle-income countries. (vii) Although the total number of CVD deaths across all countries far exceeds the number of cancer deaths for both sexes, there are 15 ESC member countries in which cancer accounts for more deaths than CVD in males and five-member countries in which cancer accounts for more deaths than CVD in females. (viii) The under-resourced status of middle-income countries is associated with a severe procedural deficit compared with high-income countries in terms of coronary intervention, ablation procedures, device implantation, and cardiac surgical procedures. CONCLUSION: Risk factors and unhealthy behaviours are potentially reversible, and this provides a huge opportunity to address the health inequalities across ESC member countries that are highlighted in this report. It seems clear, however, that efforts to seize this opportunity are falling short and present evidence suggests that most of the WHO NCD targets for 2025 are unlikely to be met across ESC member countries.

Predicting mortality after hospitalisation for COPD using electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Few prognostic models exist for patients hospitalised with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); most are based on small cohorts enroled by specialists in academic centres. Electronic health records (EHRs) provide an opportunity to develop more representative models, although they may not record some variables used in existing models. MATERIALS AND METHODS: for this retrospective cohort study, using EHRs, we identified 17,973 patients with an unplanned hospitalisation for COPD (in any diagnostic position) in the Glasgow area between 2011 and 2017. Patients with known lung cancer were excluded. EHR were linked to prior admissions, community prescribing and laboratory data. A pragmatic, parsimonious multivariable model was developed to predict 90-day mortality. RESULTS: we identified 12 variables strongly related to prognosis, including age, sex, length of index hospitalisation stay, prior diagnosis of cancer (excluding lung cancer) or dementia, prescription of oxygen or digoxin, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and serum chloride, urea, creatinine and albumin. The model achieved excellent calibration with reasonable discrimination (area under the curve: 0.806; 95% CI: 0.792-0.820). A risk-score was developed and an electronic risk-calculator is provided. CONCLUSIONS: a small number of variables, including prescriptions and laboratory data obtained from routine EHRs predict 90-day mortality after a hospitalisation for COPD. The risk-calculator provided might prove useful for service-evaluation and audit, to guide clinical management and to risk-stratify and select patients to be invited to participate in clinical research.

European Society of Cardiology: cardiovascular disease statistics 2021.

AIMS: This report from the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Atlas Project updates and expands upon the widely cited 2019 report in presenting cardiovascular disease (CVD) statistics for the 57 ESC member countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: Statistics pertaining to 2019, or the latest available year, are presented. Data sources include the World Health Organization, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the World Bank, and novel ESC sponsored data on human and capital infrastructure and cardiovascular healthcare delivery. New material in this report includes sociodemographic and environmental determinants of CVD, rheumatic heart disease, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, left-sided valvular heart disease, the advocacy potential of these CVD statistics, and progress towards World Health Organization (WHO) 2025 targets for non-communicable diseases. Salient observations in this report: (i) Females born in ESC member countries in 2018 are expected to live 80.8 years and males 74.8 years. Life expectancy is longer in high income (81.6 years) compared with middle-income (74.2 years) countries. (ii) In 2018, high-income countries spent, on average, four times more on healthcare than middle-income countries. (iii) The median PM2.5 concentrations in 2019 were over twice as high in middle-income ESC member countries compared with high-income countries and exceeded the EU air quality standard in 14 countries, all middle-income. (iv) In 2016, more than one in five adults across the ESC member countries were obese with similar prevalence in high and low-income countries. The prevalence of obesity has more than doubled over the past 35 years. (v) The burden of CVD falls hardest on middle-income ESC member countries where estimated incidence rates are ∼30% higher compared with high-income countries. This is reflected in disability-adjusted life years due to CVD which are nearly four times as high in middle-income compared with high-income countries. (vi) The incidence of calcific aortic valve disease has increased seven-fold during the last 30 years, with age-standardized rates four times as high in high-income compared with middle-income countries. (vii) Although the total number of CVD deaths across all countries far exceeds the number of cancer deaths for both sexes, there are 15 ESC member countries in which cancer accounts for more deaths than CVD in males and five-member countries in which cancer accounts for more deaths than CVD in females. (viii) The under-resourced status of middle-income countries is associated with a severe procedural deficit compared with high-income countries in terms of coronary intervention, ablation procedures, device implantation, and cardiac surgical procedures. CONCLUSION: Risk factors and unhealthy behaviours are potentially reversible, and this provides a huge opportunity to address the health inequalities across ESC member countries that are highlighted in this report. It seems clear, however, that efforts to seize this opportunity are falling short and present evidence suggests that most of the WHO NCD targets for 2025 are unlikely to be met across ESC member countries.

Dietary consumption of tea and the risk of prostate cancer in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial.

Tea contains polyphenols such as flavonoids, anthocyanidins, flavanols and phenolic acids which in laboratory studies have reported to promote antioxidant enzyme formation, reduces excess inflammation, slow cancer cell proliferation and promote apoptosis. Evidence from epidemiological studies on the effect of tea consumption on prostate cancer (CaP) incidence has been conflicting. We analysed data from 25 097 men within the intervention arm of the 155 000 participant Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Histologically confirmed cases of prostate cancer were reported in 3088 men (12·3 %) during the median 11·5 year follow-up. Tea consumption was assessed with a FFQ. Baseline characteristics were compared between groups using χ2 and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Cox regression models were used to assess associations between tea intake and CaP incidence. There was no statistical difference between the risk of CaP between men who never drank tea to those who drank tea at any quantity. Amongst tea drinkers, those in the highest third of consumption group had a small but significantly lower risk compared with those in the lowest third (11·2 % v. 13·2 % hazard ratio 1·16; (95 % CI 1·05, 1·29), P = 0·004). This pattern persisted with adjustments for demographics and lifestyle. In conclusion, among tea drinkers, there was a small positive association between drinking tea and a reduced risk of prostate cancer. It does not support starting to drink tea, if men previously did not, to reduce the risk. Further research is needed to establish whether tea is justified for future prospective nutritional intervention studies investigating CaP prevention.

Contributions of changes in physical activity, sedentary time, diet and body weight to changes in cardiometabolic risk.

BACKGROUND: Increased physical activity (PA), reduced time spent sedentary (SED), healthier diet and reduced body weight may all have a positive impact on cardiometabolic risk. The relative importance of change in each of these variables on cardiometabolic risk, however, is unclear. We therefore sought to investigate the relative contributions of changes in PA, SED, diet and body weight on cardiometabolic risk. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of data collected from the EuroFIT randomised controlled trial, which was a 12-week group-based lifestyle intervention for overweight middle-aged men delivered by coaches in football club stadia aiming to improve PA, SED, diet, and body weight. PA and SED were assessed by accelerometry, diet using the Dietary Instrument for Nutrition Education (DINE). An overall cardiometabolic risk score was derived from combining z-scores for glucose, HbA1c, insulin, lipids and blood pressure. In total, 707 men (from the overall cohort of 1113) with complete data for these variables at baseline and 12-month follow-up were included in the multivariable linear regression analyses. RESULTS: In multivariable analyses, change in number of steps (explaining 5.1% of R2) and dietary factors (less alcohol, fatty and sugary food, and more fruit and vegetables) (together explaining 4.5% of R2), but not changes in standing time or SED, were significantly associated with change in body weight. Changes in number of steps (R2 = 1.7%), fatty food score (R2 = 2.4%), and sugary food score (R2 = 0.4%) were significantly associated with change in cardiometabolic risk score in univariable models. However, in multivariable models which included changes in weight as well as changes in steps and dietary variables, change in weight explained a substantially larger proportion of the change in cardiometabolic risk score, explaining 14.1% of R2 (out of an overall model R2 of 19.0%). When baseline (as well as change) values were also included in the model, 38.8% of R2 for change in cardiometabolic risk score was explained overall, with 14.1% of R2 still explained by change in weight. CONCLUSION: Change in body weight, together with baseline cardiometabolic risk explained most of the change in cardiometabolic risk. Thus, the benefits of increasing physical activity and improving diet on cardiometabolic risk appear to act largely via an effect on changes in body weight. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials, ISRCTN-81935608. Registered 06052015. https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN81935608?q=&filters=recruitmentCountry:Portugal&sort=&offset=7&totalResults=92&page=1&pageSize=10&searchType=basic-search.

Anaesthesia Choice for Creation of Arteriovenous Fistula (ACCess) study protocol : a randomised controlled trial comparing primary unassisted patency at 1 year of primary arteriovenous fistulae created under regional compared to local anaesthesia.

INTRODUCTION: Arteriovenous fistulae (AVF) are the 'gold standard' vascular access for haemodialysis. Universal usage is limited, however, by a high early failure rate. Several small, single-centre studies have demonstrated better early patency rates for AVF created under regional anaesthesia (RA) compared with local anaesthesia (LA). The mechanistic hypothesis is that the sympathetic blockade associated with RA causes vasodilatation and increased blood flow through the new AVF. Despite this, considerable variation in practice exists in the UK. A high-quality, adequately powered, multicentre randomised controlled trial (RCT) is required to definitively inform practice. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Anaesthesia Choice for Creation of Arteriovenous Fistula (ACCess) study is a multicentre, observer-blinded RCT comparing primary radiocephalic/brachiocephalic AVF created under regional versus LA. The primary outcome is primary unassisted AVF patency at 1 year. Access-specific (eg, stenosis/thrombosis), patient-specific (including health-related quality of life) and safety secondary outcomes will be evaluated. Health economic analysis will also be undertaken. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The ACCess study has been approved by the West of Scotland Research and ethics committee number 3 (20/WS/0178). Results will be published in open-access peer-reviewed journals within 12 months of completion of the trial. We will also present our findings at key national and international renal and anaesthetic meetings, and support dissemination of trial outcomes via renal patient groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN14153938. SPONSOR: NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde GN19RE456, Protocol V.1.3 (8 May 2021), REC/IRAS ID: 290482.

Demographic, multi-morbidity and genetic impact on myocardial involvement and its recovery from COVID-19: protocol design of COVID-HEART-a UK, multicentre, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Although coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is primarily a respiratory illness, myocardial injury is increasingly reported and associated with adverse outcomes. However, the pathophysiology, extent of myocardial injury and clinical significance remains unclear. METHODS: COVID-HEART is a UK, multicentre, prospective, observational, longitudinal cohort study of patients with confirmed COVID-19 and elevated troponin (sex-specific > 99th centile). Baseline assessment will be whilst recovering in-hospital or recently discharged, and include cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging, quality of life (QoL) assessments, electrocardiogram (ECG), serum biomarkers and genetics. Assessment at 6-months includes repeat CMR, QoL assessments and 6-min walk test (6MWT). The CMR protocol includes cine imaging, T1/T2 mapping, aortic distensibility, late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), and adenosine stress myocardial perfusion imaging in selected patients. The main objectives of the study are to: (1) characterise the extent and nature of myocardial involvement in COVID-19 patients with an elevated troponin, (2) assess how cardiac involvement and clinical outcome associate with recognised risk factors for mortality (age, sex, ethnicity and comorbidities) and genetic factors, (3) evaluate if differences in myocardial recovery at 6 months are dependent on demographics, genetics and comorbidities, (4) understand the impact of recovery status at 6 months on patient-reported QoL and functional capacity. DISCUSSION: COVID-HEART will provide detailed characterisation of cardiac involvement, and its repair and recovery in relation to comorbidity, genetics, patient-reported QoL measures and functional capacity. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 58667920. Registered 04 August 2020.