COVID-related disruptions to colorectal cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment could increase cancer Burden in Australia and Canada: A modelling study.

COVID-19 disrupted cancer control worldwide, impacting preventative screening, diagnoses, and treatment services. This modelling study estimates the impact of disruptions on colorectal cancer cases and deaths in Canada and Australia, informed by data on screening, diagnosis, and treatment procedures. Modelling was used to estimate short- and long-term effects on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality, including ongoing impact of patient backlogs. A hypothetical mitigation strategy was simulated, with diagnostic and treatment capacities increased by 5% from 2022 to address backlogs. Colorectal cancer screening dropped by 40% in Canada and 6.3% in Australia in 2020. Significant decreases to diagnostic and treatment procedures were also observed in Australia and Canada, which were estimated to lead to additional patient wait times. These changes would lead to an estimated increase of 255 colorectal cancer cases and 1,820 colorectal cancer deaths in Canada and 234 cases and 1,186 deaths in Australia over 2020-2030; a 1.9% and 2.4% increase in mortality, respectively, vs a scenario with no screening disruption or diagnostic/treatment delays. Diagnostic and treatment capacity mitigation would avert 789 and 350 deaths in Canada and Australia, respectively. COVID-related disruptions had a significant impact on colorectal cancer screening, diagnostic, and treatment procedures in Canada and Australia. Modelling demonstrates that downstream effects on disease burden could be substantial. However, backlogs can be managed and deaths averted with even small increases to diagnostic and treatment capacity. Careful management of resources can improve patient outcomes after any temporary disruption, and these results can inform targeted approaches early detection of cancers.

Skin cancer-related conditions managed in general practice in Australia, 2000-2016: a nationally representative, cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: Skin cancer is Australia's most common and costly cancer. We examined the frequency of Australian general practice consultations for skin cancer-related conditions, by patient and general practitioner (GP) characteristics and by time period. DESIGN: Nationally representative, cross-sectional survey of general practice clinical activity. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 15 years or older having a skin cancer-related condition managed by GPs in the Bettering the Evaluation And Care of Health study between April 2000 and March 2016. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportions and rates per 1000 encounters. RESULTS: In this period, 15 678 GPs recorded 1 370 826 patient encounters, of which skin cancer-related conditions were managed 65 411 times (rate of 47.72 per 1000 encounters, 95% CI 46.41 to 49.02). Across the whole period, 'skin conditions' managed were solar keratosis (29.87%), keratinocyte cancer (24.85%), other skin lesion (12.93%), nevi (10.98%), skin check (10.37%), benign skin neoplasm (8.76%) and melanoma (2.42%). Over time, management rates increased for keratinocyte cancers, skin checks, skin lesions, benign skin neoplasms and melanoma; but remained stable for solar keratoses and nevi. Skin cancer-related encounter rates were higher for patients aged 65-89 years, male, living in Queensland or in regional or remote areas, with lower area-based socioeconomic status, of English-speaking background, Veteran card holders and non-healthcare card holders; and for GPs who were aged 35-44 years or male. CONCLUSION: These findings show the spectrum and burden of skin cancer-related conditions managed in general practice in Australia, which can guide GP education, policy and interventions to optimise skin cancer prevention and management.

The predicted effect and cost-effectiveness of tailoring colonoscopic surveillance according to mismatch repair gene in patients with Lynch syndrome.

PURPOSE: Lynch syndrome-related colorectal cancer (CRC) risk substantially varies by mismatch repair (MMR) gene. We evaluated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of MMR gene-tailored colonoscopic surveillance. METHODS: We first estimated sex- and MMR gene-specific cumulative lifetime risk of first CRC without colonoscopic surveillance using an optimization algorithm. Next, we harnessed these risk estimates in a microsimulation model, "Policy1-Lynch," and compared 126 colonoscopic surveillance strategies against no surveillance. RESULTS: The most cost-effective strategy was 3-yearly surveillance from age 25 to 70 years (pathogenic variants [path_] in MLH1 [path_MLH1], path_MSH2) with delayed surveillance for path_MSH6 (age 30-70 years) and path_PMS2 (age 35-70 years) heterozygotes (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = Australian dollars (A) $8,833/life-year saved). This strategy averted 60 CRC deaths (153 colonoscopies per death averted) over the lifetime of 1000 confirmed patients with Lynch syndrome (vs no surveillance). This also reduced colonoscopies by 5% without substantial change in health outcomes (vs nontailored 3-yearly surveillance from 25-70 years). Generally, starting surveillance at age 25 (vs 20) years was more cost-effective with minimal effect on life-years saved and starting 5 to 10 years later for path_MSH6 and path_PMS2 heterozygotes (vs path_MLH1 and path_MSH2) further improved cost-effectiveness. Surveillance end age (70/75/80 years) had a minor effect. Three-yearly surveillance strategies were more cost-effective (vs 1 or 2-yearly) but prevented 3 fewer CRC deaths. CONCLUSION: MMR gene-specific colonoscopic surveillance would be effective and cost-effective.

Association Between Melanoma Detected During Routine Skin Checks and Mortality.

IMPORTANCE: Early melanoma diagnosis is associated with better health outcomes, but there is insufficient evidence that screening, such as having routine skin checks, reduces mortality. OBJECTIVE: To assess melanoma-specific and all-cause mortality associated with melanomas detected through routine skin checks, incidentally or patient detected. A secondary aim was to examine patient, sociodemographic, and clinicopathologic factors associated with different modes of melanoma detection. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective, population-based, cohort study included patients in New South Wales, Australia, who were diagnosed with melanoma over 1 year from October 23, 2006, to October 22, 2007, in the Melanoma Patterns of Care Study and followed up until 2018 (mean [SD] length of follow-up, 11.9 [0.3] years) by using linked mortality and cancer registry data. All patients who had invasive melanomas recorded at the cancer registry were eligible for the study, but the number of in situ melanomas was capped. The treating doctors recorded details of melanoma detection and patient and clinical characteristics in a baseline questionnaire. Histopathologic variables were obtained from pathology reports. Of 3932 recorded melanomas, data were available and analyzed for 2452 (62%; 1 per patient) with primary in situ (n = 291) or invasive (n = 2161) cutaneous melanoma. Data were analyzed from March 2020 to January 2021. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Melanoma-specific mortality and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 2452 patients were included in the analyses. The median age at diagnosis was 65 years (range, 16-98 years), and 1502 patients (61%) were men. A total of 858 patients (35%) had their melanoma detected during a routine skin check, 1148 (47%) self-detected their melanoma, 293 (12%) had their melanoma discovered incidentally when checking another skin lesion, and 153 (6%) reported "other" presentation. Routine skin-check detection of invasive melanomas was associated with 59% lower melanoma-specific mortality (subhazard ratio, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.28-0.60; P < .001) and 36% lower all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.54-0.76; P < .001), adjusted for age and sex, compared with patient-detected melanomas. After adjusting for prognostic factors including ulceration and mitotic rate, the associations were 0.68 (95% CI, 0.44-1.03; P = .13), and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.63-0.90; P = .006), respectively. Factors associated with higher odds of routine skin-check melanoma detection included being male (female vs male, odds ratio [OR], 0.73; 95% CI, 0.60-0.89; P = .003), having previous melanoma (vs none, OR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.77-3.15; P < .001), having many moles (vs not, OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.10-1.77; P = .02), being 50 years or older (eg, 50-59 years vs <40 years, OR, 2.89; 95% CI, 1.92-4.34; P < .001), and living in nonremote areas (eg, remote or very remote vs major cities, OR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.05-1.04; P = .003). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study, melanomas diagnosed through routine skin checks were associated with significantly lower all-cause mortality, but not melanoma-specific mortality, after adjustment for patient, sociodemographic, and clinicopathologic factors.

Prevalence of skin examination behaviours among Australians over time.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the prevalence and correlates of opportunistic skin check behaviours among Australians and whether changes over time might explain increasing underlying rates of melanoma in situ. METHODS: The National Sun Protection Survey involved periodic telephone-based cross-sectional surveys during summer since 2003. Skin checks by a doctor in the past 12 months was asked in four summers over 2006-2017, and responses from 23,374 Australians aged 12-69 years were analysed. Prevalence estimates were weighted to be representative of the Australian population. Chi-square tests compared the prevalence over time and by characteristics. RESULTS: The overall proportion reporting whole-body skin checks in the past 12 months was 20 % in 2006-07 and 2010-11, 21 % in 2013-14, and 22 % in 2016-17; but increased from 29 % in 2006-07 to 37 % in 2016-17 for those aged 45-69 years (p < 0.0001). In 2016-17, 5% reported a skin check of part-body and 9% for a specific mole or spot. The proportion reporting no skin checks increased from 61 % to 64 % over time (p < 0.0001). Whole-body skin checks were more common among older respondents, females, and also varied by residence location, skin sensitivity, skin colour, risk perception, and socio-economic index (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Approximately one third of Australians had their skin checked by a doctor within a 12-month period, but this varied across population sub-groups. Skin check behaviours were relatively stable over time, with modest increases in the prevalence of skin checks for those aged 45-69 years. These findings do not explain underlying large increases in rates of melanoma in situ.