What Are the Economic Arguments for Mandating LGBT+ Health Training for Healthcare Providers? An Economic Evaluation of the Impacts of LGBT+ Health Training on Cervical Screening.

Background: Equitable access to healthcare is a priority of many healthcare systems, aiming to ensure access is driven by need and not minority groups such as those defined by sexual orientation. However, there are healthcare areas where inequity in access across sexual orientation groups is found that are not justified based on need. Mandated LGBTQ+-specific training of the healthcare workforce may help address some barriers of access for these groups. The study aims to understand the potential economic implications for mandated LGBTQ+-specific healthcare training on the healthcare system in England, UK to inform commissioning of training provision. Methods: Cervical cancer screening was used as an exemplar case where there appears to be inequity in access for different sexual orientation groups. A decision model was developed and analysed that considered the impacts of greater uptake of screening for lesbian and bisexual women due to LGBTQ+ training. Costs took the perspective of the healthcare system and outcomes modelled were cancer cases averted in a timeframe of 5 years. Results: Based on cervical cancer screening alone, where training costs are fully attributed to this service, training would likely result in fewer cancer cases detected in the lesbian and bisexual populations, though this comes at a modest increase in healthcare sector costs, with this increase largely reflecting a greater volume of screens. Training costs do not appear to be a major component of the cost implications. Conclusions: In resource-constrained systems with increasing pressures for efficiency savings, the opportunity cost of delivering training is a realistic component of the commissioning decision. The findings in this paper provide a signal that mandated LGBTQ+ training in healthcare could lead to potentially greater outcomes and in breaking down barriers of access and could also enable the healthcare system to provide more equitable access to healthcare.

Long-term conditions among sexual minority adults in England: evidence from a cross-sectional analysis of responses to the English GP Patient Survey.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence for specific long-term conditions is required to inform best practices regarding the substantial health inequalities experienced by sexual minority individuals compared with heterosexual peers. AIM: To describe inequalities in long-term conditions among sexual minority (lesbian, gay, and bisexual [LGB]) adults. DESIGN & SETTING: Cross-sectional analysis of 1 341 339 nationally representative survey responses from the English GP Patient Survey (GPPS). METHOD: Stratifying by sex, the weighted prevalence and covariate-adjusted association of 15 long-term conditions were calculated, comparing sexual minority and heterosexual adults, considering variation by sexual orientation and variation in sexual orientation inequalities by deprivation, ethnic group, region, and age. RESULTS: After adjusting for deprivation, ethnic group, region, and age, 13 long-term conditions (all except cancer and hypertension) were more prevalent among sexual minority women than their heterosexual peers, with the largest inequalities for mental health problems (odds ratio [OR] 2.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.7 to 3.0), neurological conditions (OR 1.7, 95% CI = 1.5 to 1.8), dementia (OR 1.6, 95% CI = 1.3 to 1.9), and back problems (OR 1.4, 95% CI = 1.3 to 1.5). It was found that nine long-term conditions were also more prevalent among sexual minority men including mental health problems (OR 2.3, 95% CI = 2.2 to 2.4), 'all other conditions' (OR 1.8, 95% CI = 1.7 to 1.8), neurological conditions (OR 1.5, 95% CI = 1.4 to 1.6), and kidney or liver disease (OR 1.4, 95% CI = 1.3 to 1.5); inequalities were often largest for bisexual adults. Inequalities did not vary significantly by deprivation, ethnic group, or region except for mental health problems. Inequalities in multimorbidity were highest at younger ages; for example, LGB women aged 18-24 years had multimorbidity at the same level (approximately 20%) as heterosexual women aged 45-54 years. CONCLUSION: Sexual minority adults, especially bisexual adults, are at elevated risk for many long-term conditions and multimorbidity; this risk spans socioeconomic status and ethnic group, representing a significant healthcare challenge.

Cervical screening attendance and cervical cancer risk among women who have sex with women.

OBJECTIVES: To describe cervical cancer screening participation among women who have sex exclusively with women (WSEW) and women who have sex with women and men (WSWM) compared with women who have sex exclusively with men (WSEM), and women who have never had sex and compare this with bowel (colorectal) and breast screening participation. To explore whether there is evidence of differential stage 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN3) or cervical cancer risk. METHODS: We describe cervical, bowel and breast cancer screening uptake in age groups eligible for the national screening programmes, prevalent CIN3 and cervical cancer at baseline, and incident CIN3 and cervical cancer at five years follow-up, among 218,674 women in UK Biobank, a cohort of healthy volunteers from the UK. RESULTS: Compared with WSEM, in adjusted analysis [odds ratio (95% confidence interval)], WSEW 0.10 (0.08-0.13), WSWM 0.73 (0.58-0.91), and women who have never had sex 0.02 (0.01-0.02) were less likely to report ever having attended cervical screening. There were no differences when considering bowel cancer screening uptake (p = 0.61). For breast cancer screening, attendance was lower among WSWM 0.79 (0.68 to 0.91) and women who have never had sex 0.47 (0.29-0.58), compared with WSEM. There were incident and prevalent cases of both CIN3 and cervical cancer among WSEW and WSWM. Compared with WSEM with a single male partner, among WSEW there was a twofold increase in CIN3 1.91 (1.01 to 3.59); among WSWM with only one male partner, this was 2.25 (1.19 to 4.24). CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the importance of improving uptake of cervical screening among all women who have sex with women and breast screening among WSWM and women who have never had sex.

A Systematic Review of UK Educational and Training Materials Aimed at Health and Social Care Staff about Providing Appropriate Services for LGBT+ People.

BACKGROUND: There is greater dissatisfaction with health services by LGBT people compared to heterosexual and cisgender people and some of this is from lack of equality and diversity training for health professionals. Core training standards in sexual orientation for health professionals have been available since 2006. The purpose of this project is to systematically review educational materials for health and social care professionals in lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) issues. METHODS: A protocol was developed and searches conducted in six databases. SELECTION CRITERIA: any studies reporting delivery or evaluation of UK education of health and/or social care professionals in LGBT issues, with no language or setting restrictions. Inclusions and data extraction were conducted in duplicate. Narrative synthesis of educational evaluations was used. Educational materials were assessed using thematic synthesis. RESULTS: From the searches, 165 full papers were evaluated and 19 studies were included in the narrative synthesis. Three were successful action-research projects in cancer services and in residential care. Sixteen sets of educational/training materials have been available since 2010. These varied in length, scope, target audience, and extent of development as classroom-ready materials. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the availability of appropriate training programmes for post-qualifying staff, recommendations to undertake training, best practice examples, and statements of good intent, LGBT people continue to report that they are experiencing discrimination or direct prejudice from health and/or social care services. Better training strategies using behaviour change techniques are needed.

Delivery and impact of the NHS Health Check in the first 8 years: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Since 2009, all eligible persons in England have been entitled to an NHS Health Check. Uncertainty remains about who attends, and the health-related impacts. AIM: To review quantitative evidence on coverage (the proportion of eligible individuals who attend), uptake (proportion of invitees who attend), and impact of NHS Health Checks. DESIGN AND SETTING: A systematic review and quantitative data synthesis. Included were studies or data reporting coverage or uptake and studies reporting any health-related impact that used an appropriate comparison group or before- and-after study design. METHOD: Eleven databases and additional internet sources were searched to November 2016. RESULTS: Twenty-six observational studies and one additional dataset were included. Since 2013, 45.6% of eligible individuals have received a health check. Coverage is higher among older people, those with a family history of coronary heart disease, those living in the most deprived areas, and some ethnic minority groups. Just under half (48.2%) of those invited have taken up the invitation. Data on uptake and impact (especially regarding health-related behaviours) are limited. Uptake is higher in older people and females, but lower in those living in the most deprived areas. Attendance is associated with small increases in disease detection, decreases in modelled cardiovascular disease risk, and increased statin and antihypertensive prescribing. CONCLUSION: Published attendance, uptake, and prescribing rates are all lower than originally anticipated, and data on impact are limited, with very few studies reporting the effect of attendance on health-related behaviours. High-quality studies comparing matched attendees and non-attendees and health economic analyses are required.

Sexual orientation identity and tobacco and hazardous alcohol use: findings from a cross-sectional English population survey.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the association between tobacco and hazardous alcohol use and sexual orientation and whether such an association could be explained by other sociodemographic characteristics. DESIGN: Cross-sectional household survey conducted in 2014-2016. SETTING: England, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Representative English population sample (pooled n=43 866). MAIN OUTCOMES: Sexual orientation identity (lesbian/gay, bisexual, heterosexual, prefer-not-to-say); current tobacco and hazardous alcohol use (defined as Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test Score ≥8). All outcomes were self-reported. RESULTS: Due to interactions between sexual orientation and gender for substance use, analyses were stratified by gender. Tobacco use prevalence was significantly higher among lesbian/gay (women: 24.9%, 95% CI 19.2% to 32.6%; men: 25.9%, 95% CI 21.3% to 31.0%) and bisexual participants (women: 32.4%, 95% CI 25.9% to 39.6%; men: 30.7%, 95% CI 23.7% to 30.7%) and significantly lower for prefer-not-to-say participants in women (15.5%, 95% CI 13.5% to 17.8%) but not men (22.7%, 95% CI 20.3% to 25.3%) compared with heterosexual participants (women: 17.5%, 95% CI 17.0% to 18.0%; men: 20.4%, 95% CI 19.9% to 21.0%; p<0.001 for omnibus test). Similarly, hazardous alcohol use was significantly more prevalent for lesbian/gay (women: 19.0%, 95% CI 14.0% to 25.3%; men: 30.0%, 25.2%-35.3%) and bisexual participants (women: 24.4%, 95% CI 18.7% to 31.3%; men: 24.3%, 95% CI 17.9% to 32.1%) and lower for prefer-not-to-say participants (women: 4.1%, 95% CI 3.0% to 5.4%; men: 13.7%; 95% CI 11.8% to 16.0%) compared with heterosexuals (women: 8.3%, 95% CI 7.9% to 8.7%; men: 18.4%, 95% CI 17.9% to 18.9%; p<0.001 for omnibus test). However, after adjusting for sociodemographic confounders, tobacco use was similar across all sexual orientation groups among both women and men. By contrast, sexual orientation differences in hazardous alcohol use remained even after adjustment among women but not for bisexual and gay men. CONCLUSIONS: In England, higher rates of tobacco use among sexual minority men and women appear to be attributable to other sociodemographic factors. Higher rates of hazardous alcohol use among sexual minority men may also be attributable to these factors, whereas this is not the case for sexual minority women.

Associations Between Sexual Orientation and Overall and Site-Specific Diagnosis of Cancer: Evidence From Two National Patient Surveys in England.

Purpose To address gaps in evidence on the risk of cancer in people from sexual minorities. Patients and Methods We used data from 796,594 population-based English General Practice Patient Survey responders to explore the prevalence of self-reported diagnoses of cancer in the last 5 years among sexual minorities compared with heterosexual women and men. We analyzed data from 249,010 hospital-based English Cancer Patient Experience Survey responders with sexual orientation as a binary outcome, and International Classification of Diseases, Tenth, Revision, diagnosis as covariate-38 different common and rarer cancers, with breast and prostate cancer as baseline categories for women and men, respectively-to examine whether people from sexual minorities are over- or under-represented among different cancer sites. For both analyses, we used logistic regression, stratified by sex and adjusted for age. Results A diagnosis of cancer in the past 5 years was more commonly reported by male General Practice Patient Survey responders who endorsed gay or bisexual orientation compared with heterosexual men (odds ratio [OR], 1.31; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.49; P < .001) without evidence of a difference between lesbian or bisexual compared with heterosexual women (OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.37; P = .19). For most common and rarer cancer sites (30 of 33 in women, 28 of 32 in men), the odds of specific cancer site diagnosis among Cancer Patient Experience Survey respondents seemed to be independent of sexual orientation; however, there were notable differences in infection-related (HIV and human papillomavirus [HPV]) cancers. Gay or bisexual men were over-represented among men with Kaposi's sarcoma (OR, 48.2; 95% CI, 22.0 to 105.6), anal (OR, 15.5; 95% CI, 11.0 to 21.9), and penile cancer (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.9 to 3.7). Lesbian or bisexual women were over-represented among women with oropharyngeal cancer (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.7 to 6.0). Conclusion Large-scale evidence indicates that the distribution of cancer sites does not vary substantially by sexual orientation, with the exception of some HPV- and HIV-associated cancers. These findings highlight the importance of HPV vaccination in heterosexual and sexual minority populations.

Impact of Laboratory Test Use Strategies in a Turkish Hospital.

OBJECTIVES: Eliminating unnecessary laboratory tests is a good way to reduce costs while maintain patient safety. The aim of this study was to define and process strategies to rationalize laboratory use in Ankara Numune Training and Research Hospital (ANH) and calculate potential savings in costs. METHODS: A collaborative plan was defined by hospital managers; joint meetings with ANHTA and laboratory professors were set; the joint committee invited relevant staff for input, and a laboratory efficiency committee was created. Literature was reviewed systematically to identify strategies used to improve laboratory efficiency. Strategies that would be applicable in local settings were identified for implementation, processed, and the impact on clinical use and costs assessed for 12 months. RESULTS: Laboratory use in ANH differed enormously among clinics. Major use was identified in internal medicine. The mean number of tests per patient was 15.8. Unnecessary testing for chloride, folic acid, free prostate specific antigen, hepatitis and HIV testing were observed. Test panel use was pinpointed as the main cause of overuse of the laboratory and the Hospital Information System test ordering page was reorganized. A significant decrease (between 12.6-85.0%) was observed for the tests that were taken to an alternative page on the computer screen. The one year study saving was equivalent to 371,183 US dollars. CONCLUSION: Hospital-based committees including laboratory professionals and clinicians can define hospital based problems and led to a standardized approach to test use that can help clinicians reduce laboratory costs through appropriate use of laboratory tests.

Does therapeutic writing help people with long-term conditions? Systematic review, realist synthesis and economic considerations.

BACKGROUND: Writing therapy to improve physical or mental health can take many forms. The most researched model of therapeutic writing (TW) is unfacilitated, individual expressive writing (written emotional disclosure). Facilitated writing activities are less widely researched. DATA SOURCES: Databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Linguistics and Language Behaviour Abstracts, Allied and Complementary Medicine Database and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, were searched from inception to March 2013 (updated January 2015). REVIEW METHODS: Four TW practitioners provided expert advice. Study procedures were conducted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised comparative studies were included. Quality was appraised using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool. Unfacilitated and facilitated TW studies were analysed separately under International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision chapter headings. Meta-analyses were performed where possible using RevMan version 5.2.6 (RevMan 2012, The Cochrane Collaboration, The Nordic Cochrane Centre, Copenhagen, Denmark). Costs were estimated from a UK NHS perspective and three cost-consequence case studies were prepared. Realist synthesis followed Realist and Meta-narrative Evidence Synthesis: Evolving Standards guidelines. OBJECTIVES: To review the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of TW for people with long-term conditions (LTCs) compared with no writing, or other controls, reporting any relevant clinical outcomes. To conduct a realist synthesis to understand how TW might work, and for whom. RESULTS: From 14,658 unique citations, 284 full-text papers were reviewed and 64 studies (59 RCTs) were included in the final effectiveness reviews. Five studies examined facilitated TW; these were extremely heterogeneous with unclear or high risk of bias but suggested that facilitated TW interventions may be beneficial in individual LTCs. Unfacilitated expressive writing was examined in 59 studies of variable or unreported quality. Overall, there was very little or no evidence of any benefit reported in the following conditions (number of studies): human immunodeficiency virus (six); breast cancer (eight); gynaecological and genitourinary cancers (five); mental health (five); asthma (four); psoriasis (three); and chronic pain (four). In inflammatory arthropathies (six) there was a reduction in disease severity [n = 191, standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.96 to -0.26] in the short term on meta-analysis of four studies. For all other LTCs there were either no data, or sparse data with no or inconsistent, evidence of benefit. Meta-analyses conducted across all of the LTCs provided no evidence that unfacilitated emotional writing had any effect on depression at short- (n = 1563, SMD -0.06, 95% CI -0.29 to 0.17, substantial heterogeneity) or long-term (n = 778, SMD -0.04 95% CI -0.18 to 0.10, little heterogeneity) follow-up, or on anxiety, physiological or biomarker-based outcomes. One study reported costs, no studies reported cost-effectiveness and 12 studies reported resource use; and meta-analysis suggested reduced medication use but no impact on health centre visits. Estimated costs of intervention were low, but there was insufficient evidence to judge cost-effectiveness. Realist synthesis findings suggested that facilitated TW is a complex intervention and group interaction contributes to the perception of benefit. It was unclear from the available data who might benefit most from facilitated TW. LIMITATION: Difficulties with developing realist synthesis programme theory meant that mechanisms operating during TW remain obscure. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, there is little evidence to support the therapeutic effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of unfacilitated expressive writing interventions in people with LTCs. Further research focused on facilitated TW in people with LTCs could be informative. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012003343. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Music as an aid for postoperative recovery in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Music is a non-invasive, safe, and inexpensive intervention that can be delivered easily and successfully. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess whether music improves recovery after surgical procedures. METHODS: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of adult patients undergoing surgical procedures, excluding those involving the central nervous system or head and neck, published in any language. We included RCTs in which any form of music initiated before, during, or after surgery was compared with standard care or other non-drug interventions. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and Cochrane Central. We did meta-analysis with RevMan (version 5.2), with standardised mean differences (SMD) and random-effects models, and used Stata (version 12) for meta-regression. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42013005220. FINDINGS: We identified 4261 titles and abstracts, and included 73 RCTs in the systematic review, with size varying between 20 and 458 participants. Choice of music, timing, and duration varied. Comparators included routine care, headphones with no music, white noise, and undisturbed bed rest. Music reduced postoperative pain (SMD -0·77 [95% CI -0·99 to -0·56]), anxiety (-0·68 [-0·95 to -0·41]), and analgesia use (-0·37 [-0·54 to -0·20]), and increased patient satisfaction (1·09 [0·51 to 1·68]), but length of stay did not differ (SMD -0·11 [-0·35 to 0·12]). Subgroup analyses showed that choice of music and timing of delivery made little difference to outcomes. Meta-regression identified no causes of heterogeneity in eight variables assessed. Music was effective even when patients were under general anaesthetic. INTERPRETATION: Music could be offered as a way to help patients reduce pain and anxiety during the postoperative period. Timing and delivery can be adapted to individual clinical settings and medical teams. FUNDING: None.

The management of secondary lower limb lymphoedema in cancer patients: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Lower limb lymphoedema is a recognised complication of cancer commonly encountered in palliative care, associated with reduced mobility and poor quality of life. AIM: To evaluate the available evidence for the treatment of secondary lower limb lymphoedema in patients with malignancies. DESIGN: A systematic review of the literature. DATA SOURCES: The MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, Science Citation Index, Cochrane Databases and conference proceedings for published data from date of inception to July 2014 were searched. Relevant unpublished studies via relevant databases, Internet searches and hand-searches of the bibliographies of relevant papers were performed. RESULTS: From 1617 citations, 32 papers were selected for full-text assessment. Two randomised trials and five observational studies were identified. The two randomised controlled trials evaluated graded compression stockings and Coumarin capsules, respectively. The five observational studies evaluated lymphovenous microsurgical shunts, pneumatic compression devices, compression bandages alone, manual lymphatic drainage with compression and a herbal remedy combining Coumarin, Ginkgo and Melitoto (with or without manual lymphatic drainage), respectively. The extracted studies showed substantial heterogeneity. Hence, a meta-analysis was inappropriate and not performed. CONCLUSION: Few studies have evaluated the clinical effectiveness and potential side effects of treatments for lower limb lymphoedema. Moreover, symptoms and quality-of-life assessments were inconsistently reported. All included studies report lower limb volume reduction after treatment, which includes complex decongestion therapy, graded compression stockings and lymphovenous microsurgical shunts. Adequately powered randomised controlled trials of these interventions are recommended. Effort should be made to establish standardised outcomes, to minimise bias and to improve reporting quality in future trials of treatment for lower limb lymphoedema.

Breast cancer in lesbians and bisexual women: systematic review of incidence, prevalence and risk studies.

BACKGROUND: The UK Parliamentary Enquiry and USA Institute of Medicine state that lesbians may be at a higher risk of breast cancer but there is insufficient information. Lesbians and bisexual (LB) women have behavioural risk-factors at higher rates compared to heterosexuals such as increased alcohol intake and higher stress levels. Conversely, breast cancer rates are higher in more affluent women yet income levels in LB women are relatively low. This systematic review investigated all evidence on whether there is, or likely to be, higher rates of breast cancer in LB women. METHODS: Cochrane library (CDSR, CENTRAL, HTA, DARE, NHSEED), MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, CAB abstracts, Web of Science (SCI, SSCI), SIGLE and Social Care Online databases were searched to October 2013. Unpublished research and specific lesbian, gay and bisexual websites were checked, as were citation lists of relevant papers. Included were studies in LB populations reporting breast cancer incidence or prevalence rates, risk model results or risk-factor estimates. Inclusions, data-extraction and quality assessment were by two reviewers with disagreements resolved by discussion. RESULTS: Searches found 198 references. No incidence rates were found. Nine studies gave prevalence estimates - two showed higher, four showed no differences, one showed mixed results depending on definitions, one had no comparison group and one gave no sample size. All studies were small with poor methodological and/or reporting quality. One incidence modelling study suggested a higher rate.Four risk modelling studies were found, one Rosner-Colditz and three Gail models. Three suggested higher and one lower rate in LB compared to heterosexual women. Six risk-factor estimates suggested higher risk and one no difference between LB and heterosexual women. CONCLUSIONS: The only realistic way to establish rates in LB women would be to collect sexual orientation within routine statistics, including cancer registry data, or from large cohort studies.

Sexual orientation identity in relation to smoking history and alcohol use at age 18/19: cross-sectional associations from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE).

OBJECTIVES: Information about the health behaviours of minority groups is essential for addressing health inequalities. We evaluated the association among lesbian, gay or bisexual (LGB) sexual orientation identity and smoking and alcohol use in young people in England. DESIGN: Data drawn from wave 6 of the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE). SETTING: Self-completion questionnaires during home visits, face-to-face interviews and web-based questionnaires. PARTICIPANTS: Data from 7698 participants (3762 men) with information on sexual orientation identity and health behaviours at age 18/19. OUTCOME MEASURES: Cigarette smoking history, alcohol drinking frequency and risky single occasion drinking (RSOD). RESULTS: LGB identity was reported by 3.1% of participants (55 gay, 33 lesbian, 35 bisexual male, 111 bisexual female), 3.5% when adjusting for the survey design. Adjusting for a range of covariates, identification as lesbian/gay was found to be associated with smoking (OR=2.23, 95% CI 1.42 to 3.51), alcohol drinking >2 days/week (OR=1.99, 95% CI 1.25 to 3.17) and RSOD (OR=1.80, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.86) more than weekly. Bisexual identity was associated with smoking history (OR=1.84, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.61) but not alcohol drinking >2 days/week (OR=1.20, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.81) or RSOD (OR=1.04, 95% CI 0.71 to 2.86). CONCLUSIONS: In a sample of more than 7600 young people aged 18/19 years in England, lesbian/gay identity is associated with cigarette smoking, drinking alcohol frequency and RSOD. Bisexual identity is associated with smoking but not RSOD or frequent alcohol drinking.

A systematic review of breast cancer incidence risk prediction models with meta-analysis of their performance.

A risk prediction model is a statistical tool for estimating the probability that a currently healthy individual with specific risk factors will develop a condition in the future such as breast cancer. Reliably accurate prediction models can inform future disease burdens, health policies and individual decisions. Breast cancer prediction models containing modifiable risk factors, such as alcohol consumption, BMI or weight, condom use, exogenous hormone use and physical activity, are of particular interest to women who might be considering how to reduce their risk of breast cancer and clinicians developing health policies to reduce population incidence rates. We performed a systematic review to identify and evaluate the performance of prediction models for breast cancer that contain modifiable factors. A protocol was developed and a sensitive search in databases including MEDLINE and EMBASE was conducted in June 2010. Extensive use was made of reference lists. Included were any articles proposing or validating a breast cancer prediction model in a general female population, with no language restrictions. Duplicate data extraction and quality assessment were conducted. Results were summarised qualitatively, and where possible meta-analysis of model performance statistics was undertaken. The systematic review found 17 breast cancer models, each containing a different but often overlapping set of modifiable and other risk factors, combined with an estimated baseline risk that was also often different. Quality of reporting was generally poor, with characteristics of included participants and fitted model results often missing. Only four models received independent validation in external data, most notably the 'Gail 2' model with 12 validations. None of the models demonstrated consistently outstanding ability to accurately discriminate between those who did and those who did not develop breast cancer. For example, random-effects meta-analyses of the performance of the 'Gail 2' model showed the average C statistic was 0.63 (95% CI 0.59-0.67), and the expected/observed ratio of events varied considerably across studies (95% prediction interval for E/O ratio when the model was applied in practice was 0.75-1.19). There is a need for models with better predictive performance but, given the large amount of work already conducted, further improvement of existing models based on conventional risk factors is perhaps unlikely. Research to identify new risk factors with large additionally predictive ability is therefore needed, alongside clearer reporting and continual validation of new models as they develop.

Mifepristone in combination with prostaglandins for termination of 10-16 weeks' gestation: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Medical regimens using mifepristone in combination with prostaglandins have been widely available for women undergoing termination of pregnancy (TOP) at 10-16 weeks' gestation in China. We undertook a systematic review to compare different regimens of mifepristone with prostaglandins for TOP at 10-16 weeks' gestation. METHODS: We searched multiple electronic databases for English and Chinese language reports (1990-2007) including MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library and the Chinese Biomedical Literature Database. Included were trials comparing mifepristone with prostaglandins (misoprostol, gemeprost or carboprost (PG05)) to each other for women at 10-16 weeks' gestation. Outcomes were successful abortion rates, induction-to-expulsion time, blood loss and side effects. Data were processed with RevMan 5 software. RESULTS: Nineteen trials comparing mifepristone with prostaglandin (misoprostol and PG05) were found of which 14 contributed to meta-analyses (4206 women). The quality of reports was poor. The effectiveness of vaginal mifepristone/misoprostol was super than mifepristone/PG05 (RR 1.14, 95%CI 1.05-1.22) as was induction-to-expulsion time, blood loss and side effects. When comparing misoprostol/mifepristone 150mg to misoprostol/mifepristone 200mg, no difference in TOP success rates were found (RR 0.98, 95%CI 0.96-1.01). Misoprostol vaginally compared to orally significantly increased the TOP success rate (RR 1.12, 95%CI 1.01-1.24). Gastrointestinal symptoms and fever occurred more often in misoprostol oral group (RR 1.67, 95%CI 1.46-1.91). CONCLUSIONS: Medical regimens of mifepristone/prostaglandins were effective and safe for TOP at 10-16 weeks' gestation. Misoprostol was super than PG05, and misoprostol vaginally was found to have better effectiveness than misoprostol orally. Further research should evaluate the relative effectiveness of medical methods compared to surgery.

Predicting the life-time benefit of school-based smoking prevention programmes.

AIM: School-based smoking prevention programmes may delay the age of smoking initiation, but do not appear to achieve lasting reductions in smoking prevalence beyond school-leaving age. We explored whether delaying the age at which someone initiates smoking may have life-time benefits by increasing the likelihood of quitting in later life. DESIGN AND SETTING: Data from the General Household Survey of Great Britain were used in a logistic regression model to examine the association between age at which someone initiates regular smoking and the probability that the person will quit smoking later in life. The effect of confounding variables (sex, ethnicity, socio-economic class, education and geographical location) was taken into account. The predicted relationship was used in a cohort model to estimate the life-time reduction in smoking prevalence and all-cause mortality of a school-based smoking prevention programme. RESULTS: Age of regular smoking initiation was associated strongly with the probability of quitting later in life (coefficient -0.103, P < 0.001). The strength of the association was slightly reduced but still significant when confounding variables were included (coefficient -0.075, P < 0.001). An intervention that delays smoking initiation without decreasing smoking prevalence at age 18 may reduce adult smoking prevalence by 0.13-0.32% (depending on age) and all-cause mortality by 0.09% over the life-time of the sample. CONCLUSION: School-based smoking prevention programmes have potential for a beneficial effect over the life-time of the participants even if they have no apparent effect at school-leaving age.

Are tests for predicting pre-eclampsia good enough to make screening viable? A review of reviews and critical appraisal.

The aim of this article is to review the accuracy of tests purported to be predictive of pre-eclampsia, a major cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity worldwide. A review of systematic reviews was done. A total of 219 studies were evaluated for the accuracy of 27 tests for predicting pre-eclampsia. Study quality assessment and data abstraction were performed using piloted proformas. Bivariate meta-analyses were used to synthesize data. Levels of sensitivity and specificity were measured. There were deficiencies in many areas of methodology including blinding, test description, and reference standard adequacy. No test had a high level of both sensitivity and specificity of greater than 90%. Where multiple studies were available, only BMI > 34, alpha-fetoprotein, fibronectin (cellular and total), and uterine artery Doppler (bilateral notching) measurements reached specificity above 90%. Only Doppler (any/unilateral notching, resistance index, and combinations) measurements were over 60% sensitive. Studies were of variable quality and most tests performed poorly. Further research should focus on tests which offer much higher levels of sensitivity than tests currently available. High sensitivity is a more useful attribute in early detection of pre-eclampsia than specificity because consideration of benefits, harms and costs indicates a much greater preference for minimizing false negatives than false positives, although the ideal would be to avoid both.

Ten years of lesbian health survey research in the UK West Midlands.

BACKGROUND: Very little is known about the physical health needs of lesbian and bisexual women in the UK; most research has looked at mental or sexual health only. This article reports the results of four surveys carried out in the West Midlands between 1995 and 2005. METHODS: The first two surveys were conducted in 1995-6 by a volunteer group, with participants from a lesbian health conference (n = 69) and in a convenience sample from a wide range of relevant groups and venues (n = 354). The second two surveys were commissioned by the West Midlands South Strategic Health Authority in partnership with the Gay Men's Health Network and were conducted in 2002 (n = 449) and 2005 (n = 166) and again used convenience sampling methods including the internet. RESULTS: The mean age of respondents varied between 29-33 years and 5-7% were from a non-white ethnic background. The smoking rates varied from 42% o 55%, being twice the West Midlands regional average of 21% for women aged 16 or more. Similarly, problems with alcohol were reported in 25-37% of respondents, higher than the West Midlands regional average of 7% for women aged 16+. The prevalence of any mental health problem varied between 31-35% and any suicide attempt between 20-31%. Only 29-45% had revealed their sexual orientation to their GP and of these, approximately 50% had experienced a positive reaction. CONCLUSION: The results suggest health needs that current UK health services may not be meeting. There is a need to identify and target specific health measures for lesbians and bisexual women in order to ensure improved physical and mental health in the longer term.