Milk intake and incident stroke and CHD in populations of European descent: a Mendelian randomisation study.

Higher milk intake has been associated with a lower stroke risk, but not with risk of CHD. Residual confounding or reverse causation cannot be excluded. Therefore, we estimated the causal association of milk consumption with stroke and CHD risk through instrumental variable (IV) and gene-outcome analyses. IV analysis included 29 328 participants (4611 stroke; 9828 CHD) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD (eight European countries) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) case-cohort studies. rs4988235, a lactase persistence (LP) SNP which enables digestion of lactose in adulthood was used as genetic instrument. Intake of milk was first regressed on rs4988235 in a linear regression model. Next, associations of genetically predicted milk consumption with stroke and CHD were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Gene-outcome analysis included 777 024 participants (50 804 cases) from MEGASTROKE (including EPIC-CVD), UK Biobank and EPIC-NL for stroke, and 483 966 participants (61 612 cases) from CARDIoGRAM, UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD and EPIC-NL for CHD. In IV analyses, each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk in EPIC-CVD (ß = 13·7 g/d; 95 % CI 8·4, 19·1) and EPIC-NL (36·8 g/d; 95 % CI 20·0, 53·5). Genetically predicted milk intake was not associated with stroke (HR per 25 g/d 1·05; 95 % CI 0·94, 1·16) or CHD (1·02; 95 % CI 0·96, 1·08). In gene-outcome analyses, there was no association of rs4988235 with risk of stroke (OR 1·02; 95 % CI 0·99, 1·05) or CHD (OR 0·99; 95 % CI 0·95, 1·03). Current Mendelian randomisation analysis does not provide evidence for a causal inverse relationship between milk consumption and stroke or CHD risk.

Proteomic and Metabolomic Characterization of Metabolically Healthy Obesity: A Descriptive Study from a Swedish Cohort.

Method: Associations between different biomarkers (proteomics, lipidomics, and metabolomics) coupled to either MHO or metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) individuals were analyzed through principal component analysis (PCA). Subjects were identified from a subsample of 416 obese individuals, selected from the Malmö Diet and Cancer study-Cardiovascular arm (MDCS-CV, n = 3,443). They were further divided into MHO (n = 143) and MUO (n = 273) defined by a history of hospitalization, or not, at baseline inclusion, and nonobese subjects (NOC, n = 3,027). Two distinctive principle components (PL2, PP5) were discovered with a significant difference and thus further investigated through their main loadings. Results: MHO individuals had a more metabolically favorable lipid and glucose profile than MUO subjects, that is, lower levels of traditional blood glucose and triglycerides, as well as a trend of lower metabolically unfavorable lipid biomarkers. PL2 (lipidomics, p=0.02) showed stronger associations of triacylglycerides with MUO, whereas phospholipids correlated with MHO. PP5 (proteomics, p=0.01) included interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) and leptin with positive relations to MUO and galanin that correlated positively to MHO. The group differences in metabolite profiles were to a large extent explained by factors included in the metabolic syndrome. Conclusion: Compared to MUO individuals, corresponding MHO individuals present with a more favorable lipid metabolic profile, accompanied by a downregulation of potentially harmful proteomic biomarkers. This unique and extensive biomarker profiling presents novel data on potentially differentiating traits between these two obese phenotypes.

TNFR1 is associated with short-term mortality in patients with diabetes and acute dyspnea seeking care at the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Circulating levels of TNF alpha receptor 1 (TNFR1) and 2 (TNFR2) are associated with increased long-term mortality and impaired kidney function. AIM: To study association between circulating levels of TNFR1 and TNFR2 and short-term mortality in patients with diabetes and dyspnea. POPULATION AND METHODS: Patients aged ≥ 18 years seeking at emergency department (ED) during daytime on weekdays between December 2013 and July 2018, with diabetes and acute dyspnea, identified at the triage process, were included. Participants (n = 291) were triaged according to Medical Emergency Triage and Treatment System-Adult score, and blood samples were collected. Association between TNFR1 and TNFR2, respectively, and 90-day mortality were estimated by Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, BMI, creatinine and CRP. RESULTS: Univariate models showed significant associations between TNFR1 and TNFR2, respectively, and CRP, age and creatinine. TNFR1 and TNFR2 tended to be elevated in patients with the highest triage level, compared to patients with lower triage levels (ns). In longitudinal analyses, TNFR1 but not TNFR2 was associated with increased short-term mortality, HR adjusted for age, BMI and creatinine 1.43 (95% CI 1.07-1.91), but not in the model also adjusted for CRP, HR 1.29 (95% CI 0.94-1.77). In secondary analysis for quartile 4 versus quartiles 1-3 of TNFR1, corresponding HRs were 2.46 (95% CI 1.27-5.15) and 2.21 (95% CI 1.07-2.56). CONCLUSIONS: We found a trend for the association between circulating TNFR1 levels and short-term mortality in patients with diabetes and acute dyspnea at the ED, possibly suggesting an inflammatory pathway for the association.

A genetic risk score for hypertension is associated with risk of thoracic aortic aneurysm.

A genetic risk score (GRS) based on 29 single nucleotide polymorpysms (SNPs) associated with high blood pressure (BP) was prospectively associated with development of hypertension, stroke and cardiovascular events. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of this GRS on the incidence of aortic disease, including aortic dissection (AD), rupture or surgery of a thoracic (TAA) or abdominal (AAA) aortic aneurysm. More than 25,000 people from the Swedish Malmo Diet and Cancer Study had information on at least 24 SNPs and were followed up for a median ≥ 18 years. The number of BP elevating alleles of each SNPs, weighted by their effect size in the discovery studies, was summed into a BP-GRS. In Cox regression models, adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors including hypertension, we found significant associations of the BP-GRS, prospectively, with incident TAA (hazard ratio (HR) 1.64 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.081-2.475 comparing the third vs. the first tertile; p = 0.020) but not with either AAA or aortic dissection. Calibration, discrimination and reclassification analyses show modest improvement in prediction using the BP-GRS in addition to the model which used only traditional risk factors. A GRS for hypertension associates with TAA suggesting a link between genetic determinants of BP and aortic disease. The effect size is small but the addition of more SNPs to the GRS might improve its discriminatory capability.

Anti-ApoA-I IgG antibodies are not associated with carotid artery disease progression and first-time cardiovascular events in middle-aged individuals.

OBJECTIVE: IgG antibodies against apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I) have been found to be elevated in subjects from the general population with clinically manifest cardiovascular disease and in myocardial infarction patients with an adverse prognosis. Here, we investigated whether these antibodies are prospectively associated with carotid artery disease progression and with the risk for first-time cardiovascular events in individuals with no previous history of cardiovascular disease. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We selected 383 subjects from the cardiovascular cohort of Malmö Diet and Cancer study who suffered a coronary event during a median follow-up period of 15.4 (10.3-16.4) years and 395 age- and sex-matched controls. None of the study participants had a previous history of coronary artery disease or stroke. Anti-ApoA-I IgG were measured by ELISA in serum samples collected at baseline. Intima-media thickness (IMT) was measured in the common carotid artery and in the carotid bifurcation at baseline and after 15.9 (±1.5) years. We found no associations between anti-ApoA-I IgG and carotid artery IMT at baseline or with IMT progression during follow-up. In Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, the hazard ratio (HR 95%CI) for the primary outcome, incident coronary events, was 0.97 (0.75-1.25), P = 0.782, in subjects with anti-ApoA-I IgG within the highest tertile compared with the lowest tertile. Similarly, we did not find any associations with the secondary outcome, incident first-time stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Serum autoantibodies against ApoA-I do not correlate with disease progression and adverse events in cardiovascular disease-free individuals from the general population.

Plasma levels of the proprotein convertase furin and incidence of diabetes and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus is linked to premature mortality of virtually all causes. Furin is a proprotein convertase broadly involved in the maintenance of cellular homeostasis; however, little is known about its role in the development of diabetes mellitus and risk of premature mortality. OBJECTIVES: To test if fasting plasma concentration of furin is associated with the development of diabetes mellitus and mortality. METHODS: Overnight fasted plasma furin levels were measured at baseline examination in 4678 individuals from the population-based prospective Malmö Diet and Cancer Study. We studied the relation of plasma furin levels with metabolic and hemodynamic traits. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the association between baseline plasma furin levels and incidence of diabetes mellitus and mortality during 21.3-21.7 years follow-up. RESULTS: An association was observed between quartiles of furin concentration at baseline and body mass index, blood pressure and plasma concentration of glucose, insulin, LDL and HDL cholesterol (|0.11| ≤ ß ≤ |0.31|, P < 0.001). Plasma furin (hazard ratio [HR] per one standard deviation increment of furin) was predictive of future diabetes mellitus (727 events; HR = 1.24, CI = 1.14-1.36, P < 0.001) after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive treatment, alcohol intake and fasting plasma level of glucose, insulin and lipoproteins cholesterol. Furin was also independently related to the risk of all-cause mortality (1229 events; HR = 1.12, CI = 1.05-1.19, P = 0.001) after full multivariable adjustment. CONCLUSION: Individuals with high plasma furin concentration have a pronounced dysmetabolic phenotype and elevated risk of diabetes mellitus and premature mortality.

Monitoring of cerebral oximetry during head-up tilt test in adults with history of syncope and orthostatic intolerance.

Aims: We applied near-infrared-spectroscopy (NIRS) to measure absolute frontal cerebral tissue oxygen saturation (SctO2) during head-up tilt test (HUT) in patients investigated for unexplained syncope. Methods and results: Synchronized non-invasive beat-to-beat haemodynamic monitoring, ECG, SctO2 (NIRS; normal range: 60-80%), and peripheral oxygen saturation (left hand, SpO2) were applied during HUT in a random sample of patients with unexplained syncope. Tracings of 54 patients (mean-age: 55 ± 19 years, 39% male) with negative HUT, vasovagal syncope (VVS), or orthostatic hypotension (OH) were analysed. In 44 patients HUT was diagnostic, in 10 HUT was negative. Thirty-one experienced VVS. Of these, 6 had spontaneous and 25 nitroglycerin-induced syncope. Thirteen patients had orthostatic hypotension (OH). Although there was no significant change in mean-arterial pressure from baseline to 1 min before syncope or end of passive HUT phase (-1.4 ± 13.9 mmHg; P = 0.45), there was a significant fall in SctO2 during the same period (-3.2 ± 3.2%; P ≤ 0.001). Among patients who experienced syncope, a decrease in SctO2 from 71 ± 5% at baseline to 53 ± 9% (P < 0.001) at syncope was observed. During HUT, there was a significant difference in delta SctO2 between spontaneous VVS (-4.5 ± 3.0%) and negative HUT (-1.3 ± 1.9%; P = 0.021), but not between spontaneous VVS and OH (-5.4 ± 4.2%; P = 0.65). In spontaneous VVS, progressive decrease of SctO2 was independent of mean arterial pressure decrease (P = 0.22). Conclusions: Progressive decrease in cerebral tissue oxygenation independent of mean-arterial pressure may precede spontaneous vasovagal reflex during tilt. Patients experience syncope when SctO2 falls below 60%. These data confirm clinical utility of absolute cerebral oximetry monitoring for syncope investigation. We applied NIRS to measure frontal cerebral tissue oxygen saturation (SctO2) during head-up tilt test (HUT) in patients with unexplained syncope. In 44 of 54 patients, HUT was diagnostic. In patients with syncope, a significant SctO2-decrease was observed. Different patterns of SctO2 can be detected.

Plasma stem cell factor levels are associated with risk of cardiovascular disease and death.

OBJECTIVE: Stem cell factor (SCF) is a key growth factor for several types of stem and progenitor cells. There is experimental evidence that such cells are of importance for maintaining the integrity of the cardiovascular system. We investigated the association between circulating levels of SCF and risk for development of cardiovascular events and death. METHODS: SCF was analysed by the proximity extension assay technique in plasma from 4742 subjects participating in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study. Cardiovascular events and death were monitored through national registers with a mean follow-up time of 19.2 years. RESULTS: Subjects with high baseline levels of SCF had lower cardiovascular (n = 340) and all-cause mortality (n = 1159) as well as a lower risk of heart failure (n = 177), stroke (n = 318) and myocardial infarction (n = 452). Smoking, diabetes and high alcohol consumption were associated with lower levels of SCF. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the gene region encoding PDX1 C-terminal inhibiting factor 1 (PCIF1) and matrix metalloproteinase-9 were associated with plasma SCF levels. The highest SCF quartile remained independently associated with a lower risk of a lower risk of cardiovascular [hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval 0.59 (0.43-0.81)] and all-cause mortality [0.68 (0.57-0.81)], heart failure [0.50 (0.31-0.80)] and stroke [0.66 (0.47-0.92)], but not with MI [0.96 (0.72-1.27)] as compared with the lowest quartile when adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors in Cox proportional hazard regression models. CONCLUSIONS: This prospective population-based study demonstrates that subjects with high levels of SCF have a lower risk of cardiovascular events and death. The findings provide clinical support for a protective role of SCF in maintaining cardiovascular integrity.

Inverse relationship between a genetic risk score of 31 BMI loci and weight change before and after reaching middle age.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Genome-wide-association studies have identified numerous body mass index (BMI)-associated variants, but it is unclear how these relate to weight gain in adults at different ages. METHODS: We examined the association of a genetic risk score (GRS), consisting of 31 BMI-associated variants, with an annual weight change (AWC) and a substantial weight gain (SWG) of 10% by comparing self-reported weight at 20 years (y) with baseline weight (mean: 58 y; s.d.: 8 y) in 21407 participants from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (MDCS), and comparing baseline weight to weight at follow-up (mean: 73 y; s.d.: 6 y) among 2673 participants. Association between GRS and AWG and SWG was replicated in 4327 GLACIER (Gene x Lifestyle interactions And Complex traits Involved in Elevated disease Risk) participants (mean: 45 y; s.d.: 7 y) with 10 y follow-up. Cohort-specific results were pooled by fixed-effect meta-analyses. RESULTS: In MDCS, the GRS was associated with increased AWC (ß: 0.003; s.e: 0.01; P: 7 × 10(-8)) and increased odds for SWG (odds ratio (OR) 1.01 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.02); P: 0.013) per risk-allele from age 20y, but unexpectedly with decreased AWC (ß: -0.006; s.e: 0.002; P: 0.009) and decreased odds for SWG OR 0.96 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.98); P: 0.001) between baseline and follow-up. Effect estimates from age 20 y to baseline differed significantly from those from baseline to follow-up (P: 0.0002 for AWC and P: 0.0001 for SWG). Similar to MDCS, the GRS was associated with decreased odds for SWG OR 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.00); P: 0.029) from baseline to follow-up in GLACIER. In meta-analyses (n=7000), the GRS was associated with decreased AWC (ß: -0.005; s.e.m. 0.002; P: 0.002) and decreased odds for SWG OR 0.97 (95% CI: 0.96, 0.99); P: 0.001) per risk-allele. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide convincing evidence for a paradoxical inversed relationship between a high number of BMI-associated risk-alleles and less weight gain during and after middle-age, in contrast to the expected increased weight gain seen in younger age.

Gene variance in the nicotinic receptor cluster (CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4) predicts death from cardiopulmonary disease and cancer in smokers.

BACKGROUND: Genetic variation in the cluster on chromosome 15, encoding the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor subunits (CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4), has shown strong associations with tobacco consumption and an additional risk increase in smoking-related diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), peripheral artery disease and lung cancer. OBJECTIVES: To test whether rs1051730 (C/T), a tag for multiple variants in the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB3 cluster, is associated with a change in risk of smoking-related mortality and morbidity in the Malmö Diet and Cancer study, a population-based prospective cohort study. METHODS: At baseline participants were classified as current (n = 6951), previous (n = 8426) or never (n = 9417) smokers. Cox-proportional hazards models were used to determine the correlation between rs1051730 and incidence of first COPD, tobacco-related cancer, other cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD), and total mortality due to these causes, during approximately 14 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Amongst current smokers there were 480 first incident COPD events, 852 tobacco-related cancers, 810 other cancers and 1022 CVD events. A total of 1508 deaths occurred, including 500 due to CVD, 102 due to respiratory diseases and 677 due to cancer. In adjusted additive models, an increasing number of T alleles were associated with a gradual increase in total mortality, incident COPD and tobacco-related cancer, even after adjustment for smoking quantity. No significant associations were observed amongst never smokers. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that gene variance in the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 cluster is associated with an increased risk of death, incidence of COPD and tobacco-related cancer in smokers. These findings indicate an individual susceptibility to tobacco use and its complications; this may be important when targeting and designing smoking cessation therapies.

Association between copeptin and declining glomerular filtration rate in people with newly diagnosed diabetes. The Skaraborg Diabetes Register.

AIMS: Copeptin has shown association with development of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in people with diabetes. Early detection of individuals having the highest risk could help avoid this complication. Therefore we decided to study copeptin concentrations and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) retrospectively in people with newly diagnosed diabetes. METHODS: People with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes in 1996-1998 from Skaraborg Diabetes Register (SDR) were reinvestigated in 2008-2010. Copeptin concentration at the time of diagnosis was determined. Creatinine and cystatin C were used for determination of eGFR at baseline and at reinvestigation (n=161). Data on cardiovascular complications were extracted from national registers. Analyzes were done with logistic regression. RESULTS: From baseline to follow up eGFR decreased with 33ml. Twenty-nine individuals (18.1%) developed CKD stage 3. There was a significant association between elevated copeptin concentrations and development of CKD stage 3 (OR=1.78, 95% CI=1.01-3.16). When adjusting for GFR at baseline the association between copeptin and GFR decline was borderline significant (OR=1.79, 95% CI=0.99-3.25, p=0.055). CONCLUSIONS: Determination of copeptin may early identify people with diabetes and high risk for CKD. To prevent complications for these individuals aggressive treatment should be discussed.

Risk factors for the progression of carotid intima-media thickness over a 16-year follow-up period: the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the progression of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) in the common carotid artery (CCA) and the bifurcation over a mean follow-up of 16 years in relation to cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: The study population included 3426 middle-aged Swedish men and women participating in the 1991-1994 (baseline) and the 2007-2012 (re-examination) investigation of the cardiovascular cohort of the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (MDCS). RESULTS: There were differences in risk factor patterns in arterial segments in that diabetes and male sex were associated with the progression of IMT in the bifurcation, but not in the CCA, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) was associated with the progression of IMT in the CCA, but not in the bifurcation. Favourable changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) and HDL during follow-up decreased the IMT progression rate in the CCA. There was a cumulative relationship between traditional cardiovascular risk factors (i.e., regular smoking, LDL/HDL-ratio ≥ 3, hypertension) and IMT progression rates. The odds ratio (OR) of high IMT CCA progression rate (>75th percentile) was 1.0 (reference), 1.4 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.7), 1.7 (95% CI: 1.3, 2.2) and 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4, 3.1), respectively, for individuals with none, one, two, and three risk factors. CONCLUSION: There were differences in the associations between risk factors and progression rate in different arterial segments. Favourable changes in SBP and lipids during the follow-up period were associated with reduced IMT progression rates in the CCA.

Genetic risk, coronary heart disease events, and the clinical benefit of statin therapy: an analysis of primary and secondary prevention trials.

BACKGROUND: Genetic variants have been associated with the risk of coronary heart disease. In this study, we tested whether or not a composite of these variants could ascertain the risk of both incident and recurrent coronary heart disease events and identify those individuals who derive greater clinical benefit from statin therapy. METHODS: A community-based cohort study (the Malmo Diet and Cancer Study) and four randomised controlled trials of both primary prevention (JUPITER and ASCOT) and secondary prevention (CARE and PROVE IT-TIMI 22) with statin therapy, comprising a total of 48,421 individuals and 3477 events, were included in these analyses. We studied the association of a genetic risk score based on 27 genetic variants with incident or recurrent coronary heart disease, adjusting for traditional clinical risk factors. We then investigated the relative and absolute risk reductions in coronary heart disease events with statin therapy stratified by genetic risk. We combined data from the different studies using a meta-analysis. FINDINGS: When individuals were divided into low (quintile 1), intermediate (quintiles 2-4), and high (quintile 5) genetic risk categories, a significant gradient in risk for incident or recurrent coronary heart disease was shown. Compared with the low genetic risk category, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for coronary heart disease for the intermediate genetic risk category was 1·34 (95% CI 1·22-1·47, p<0·0001) and that for the high genetic risk category was 1·72 (1·55-1·92, p<0·0001). In terms of the benefit of statin therapy in the four randomised trials, we noted a significant gradient (p=0·0277) of increasing relative risk reductions across the low (13%), intermediate (29%), and high (48%) genetic risk categories. Similarly, we noted greater absolute risk reductions in those individuals in higher genetic risk categories (p=0·0101), resulting in a roughly threefold decrease in the number needed to treat to prevent one coronary heart disease event in the primary prevention trials. Specifically, in the primary prevention trials, the number needed to treat to prevent one such event in 10 years was 66 in people at low genetic risk, 42 in those at intermediate genetic risk, and 25 in those at high genetic risk in JUPITER, and 57, 47, and 20, respectively, in ASCOT. INTERPRETATION: A genetic risk score identified individuals at increased risk for both incident and recurrent coronary heart disease events. People with the highest burden of genetic risk derived the largest relative and absolute clinical benefit from statin therapy. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Reflex syncope, anxiety level, and family history of cardiovascular disease in young women: case-control study.

AIMS: Anxiety is an emotion, which stimulates sympathetic nervous outflow potentially facilitating vasovagal reflex syncope (VVS) but reports on anxiety levels in patients with VVS are sparse. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied anxiety levels in young women (21-40 years) referred for unexplained transient loss of consciousness (TLOC), and age-matched female controls with or without past history of TLOC (≈probable VVS). Referred patients underwent head-up tilt (HUT) according to current ESC Guidelines. State and Trait Anxiety Inventory questionnaire evaluated anxiety levels plus a questionnaire explored risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Sixty-five of 91 women were diagnosed with VVS on HUT. Among 549 controls, 223 (40.6%) reported at least one episode of TLOC. State-anxiety level in patients with VVS undergoing HUT (42.4 ± 9.3) was higher compared with both controls with (38.3 ± 10.2; P < 0.01) and without past TLOC history (35.9 ± 9.8; P < 0.001). Trait anxiety in patients with VVS (42.7 ± 8.4), and controls with TLOC history (42.4 ± 8.4) was higher compared with controls without TLOC history (39.7 ± 8.5; P < 0.01). In the logistic regression using controls without TLOC as reference, both VVS diagnosis and past history of TLOC were associated with family history of CVD [odds ratio (OR) 2.4, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.3-4.4; P = 0.007, and 2.3, 1.4-3.6; P = 0.001, respectively], and this association was independent of anxiety level. CONCLUSIONS: Trait anxiety and family history of CVD are increased in both young women with VVS and controls with history of TLOC. However, the height of anxiety level does not explain CVD heredity and other mechanisms may link syncope with CVD.

Red cell distribution width, haemoglobin A1c and incidence of diabetes mellitus.

OBJECTIVE: Hyperglycaemia has multiple effects on the red blood cell (RBC), including glycation of haemoglobin, reduced deformability and reduced lifespan. Red cell distribution width (RDW) is a measure of the heterogeneity of erythrocyte volumes. The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between RDW and glucose, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and incidence of diabetes mellitus (DM). DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS: RDW and mean corpuscular volume were measured in 26 709 non-diabetic participants (aged 45-73 years) from the population-based Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort. HbA1c and fasting venous blood glucose levels were measured in 4845 subjects. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of DM (n = 2944) over 14 years of follow-up was studied by linkage with national and local DM registers. RESULTS: Individuals with low RDW had significantly higher risk of developing DM [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.70, for 1st vs. 4th quartile], especially in subjects with impaired fasting glucose (n = 416) (HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.12-4.14). Low RDW was also associated with significantly higher waist circumference and glucose, insulin and triglyceride concentrations. By contrast, RDW was significantly and positively associated with HbA1c, corresponding an increase in HbA1c of 0.10% per 1 SD increase in RDW. CONCLUSION: Low RDW is associated with increased incidence of DM independently of other risk factors. We propose that low RDW could be a surrogate marker of reduced RBC survival, with lower HbA1c due to shorter duration of glucose exposure. RDW is a biomarker that could improve risk assessment for individuals at risk of developing DM.

Cystatin C identifies cardiovascular risk better than creatinine-based estimates of glomerular filtration in middle-aged individuals without a history of cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVES: Creatinine- and cystatin C-based estimates of renal function are considered to be cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, but the clinical utility in middle-aged subjects without a history of CVD is controversial. DESIGN: We related plasma cystatin C and creatinine-based glomerular filtration rate (GFR) [MDRD, CKD-EPI-2009, and CKD-EPI-comb (a combination of creatinine and cystatin C)] to incident CVD, CVD mortality, all-cause mortality, and heart failure in 4650 middle-aged subjects without CVD. RESULTS: The hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation increment (95% CI) of cystatin C predicted incident CVD (1.22, 1.11-1.33; P < 0.0001), CVD mortality (1.44, 1.24-1.66; P < 0.0001), all-cause mortality (1.15, 1.05-1.26; P = 0.002), and heart failure (1.27, 1.05-1.55; P = 0.02), whereas MDRD and CKD-EPI-2009 only predicted CVD mortality (0.79, 0.66-0.93; P = 0.006 and 0.78, 0.66-0.92; P = 0.003, respectively). Cystatin C led to a significant increase in the net reclassification improvement for all endpoints, except heart failure. Only within the quartile with the worst renal function were all measures related to all-cause and CVD mortality. The top 25% of cystatin C in the population significantly predicted risk of incident CVD and CVD mortality, whereas MDRD and CKD-EPI-2009 were predictors of CVD mortality only at a GFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) (11-13% of the population) and of incident CVD only at a GFR < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) (<1% of the population). CONCLUSION: Cystatin C is a better risk marker for CVD morbidity and mortality than creatinine-based GFR. Whether this is explained by cystatin C being a better marker for true GFR or through other effects of cystatin C remains to be shown.

Novel and established anthropometric measures and the prediction of incident cardiovascular disease: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to compare novel and established anthropometrical measures in their ability to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD), and to determine whether they improve risk prediction beyond classical risk factors in a cohort study of 60-year-old men and women. We also stratified the results according to gender to identify possible differences between men and women. Furthermore, we aimed to replicate our findings in a large independent cohort (The Malmö Diet and Cancer study-cardiovascular cohort). METHODS: This was a population-based study of 1751 men and 1990 women, aged 60 years and without CVD at baseline, with 375 incident cases of CVD during 11 years of follow-up. Weight, height, waist circumference (WC), hip circumference and sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) were measured at baseline. Body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist-hip-height ratio (WHHR), WC-to-height ratio (WCHR) and SAD-to-height ratio (SADHR) were calculated. RESULTS: All anthropometric measures predicted CVD in unadjusted Cox regression models per s.d. increment (hazard ratios, 95% confidence interval), while significant associations after adjustments for established risk CVD factors were noted for WHHR 1.20 (1.08-1.33), WHR 1.14 (1.02-1.28), SAD 1.13 (1.02-1.25) and SADHR 1.17 (1.06-1.28). WHHR had higher increases in C-statistics, and model improvements (likelihood ratio tests (P<0.001)). In the replication study (MDC-CC, n=5180), WHHR was the only measure that improved Cox regression models in men (P=0.01). CONCLUSION: WHHR, a new measure reflecting body fat distribution, showed the highest risk estimates after adjustments for established CVD risk factors. These findings were verified in men but not women in an independent cohort.

Chromosome 9p21 genetic variation explains 13% of cardiovascular disease incidence but does not improve risk prediction.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the proportion of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence that is explained by genetic variation at chromosome 9p21 and to test whether such variation adds incremental information with regard to CVD prediction, beyond traditional risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: rs4977574 on chromosome 9p21 was genotyped in 24 777 subjects from the Malmö Diet and Cancer study who were free from CVD prior to the baseline examination. Association between genotype and incident CVD (n = 2668) during a median follow-up of 11.7 years was evaluated in multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. Analyses were performed in quartiles of baseline age, and linear trends in effect size across age groups were estimated in logistic regression models. RESULTS: In additive models, chromosome 9p21 significantly predicted CVD in the entire population (hazard ratio 1.17 per G allele, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.23, P < 0.001). Effect estimates increased from the highest (Q4) to the lowest quartile (Q1) of baseline age, but this trend was not significant. The overall population attributable risk conferred by chromosome 9p21 in fully adjusted models was 13%, ranging from 17% in Q1 to 11% in Q4. Addition of chromosome 9p21 to traditional risk factors only marginally improved predictive accuracy. CONCLUSION: The high population attributable risk conferred by chromosome 9p21 suggests that future interventions interfering with downstream mechanisms of the genetic variation may affect CVD incidence over a broad range of ages. However, variation of chromosome 9p21 alone does not add clinically meaningful information in terms of CVD prediction beyond traditional risk factors at any age.

High levels of cystatin C predict the metabolic syndrome: the prospective Malmö Diet and Cancer Study.

OBJECTIVE: Cystatin C is a novel marker of cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here, we prospectively investigated whether plasma levels of cystatin C predict new-onset metabolic syndrome (MetS) as well as long-term progression and incidence of the different components of the MetS. METHODS: Cystatin C was measured in 1502 individuals included in the Malmö Diet and Cancer cardiovascular cohort (mean age 56 years, 59% women) who were free from the MetS at baseline and subsequently underwent a follow-up examination after a median of 16 years. MetS was defined according to the NCEP-ATP-III guidelines. Logistic regression was used to adjust for covariates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Metabolic syndrome and long-term progression as well as incidence of the different components of the MetS. RESULTS: During follow-up, 428 subjects developed new-onset MetS. In age- and sex-adjusted analysis, compared with the lowest quartile of cystatin C, the odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for incident MetS in subjects with cystatin C levels in quartiles 2, 3 and 4 were 1.00 (0.71-1.40), 1.48 (1.06-2.07) and 1.91 (1.37-2.68), respectively (Ptrend  < 0.001); this linear association remained significant even after full multivariate adjustment (Ptrend  = 0.041). Interestingly, in this fully adjusted model, long-term progression of abdominal obesity was the only component of the MetS significantly associated with increasing quartiles of baseline cystatin C levels (Ptrend  = 0.008). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that cystatin C may adversely affect metabolic factors, particularly abdominal obesity, thus contributing to development of the MetS. Our results may help to explain the link between cystatin C and development of CVD.