Evidence of Decreased Long-term Risk of Cervical Precancer after Negative Primary HPV Screens Compared with Negative Cytology Screens in a Longitudinal Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The growing use of primary human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical cancer screening requires determining appropriate screening intervals to avoid overtreatment of transient disease. This study examined the long-term risk of cervical precancer after HPV screening to inform screening interval recommendations. METHODS: This longitudinal cohort study (British Columbia, Canada, 2008 to 2022) recruited women and individuals with a cervix who received 1 to 2 negative HPV screens (HPV1 cohort, N = 5,546; HPV2 cohort, N = 6,624) during a randomized trial and women and individuals with a cervix with 1 to 2 normal cytology results (BCS1 cohort, N = 782,297; BCS2 cohort, N = 673,778) extracted from the provincial screening registry. All participants were followed through the registry for 14 years. Long-term risk of cervical precancer or worse [cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+)] was compared between HPV and cytology cohorts. RESULTS: Cumulative risks of CIN2+ were 3.2/1,000 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.6-4.7] in HPV1 and 2.7/1,000 (95% CI, 1.2-4.2) in HPV2 after 8 years. This was comparable with the risk in the cytology cohorts after 3 years [BCS1: 3.3/1,000 (95% CI, 3.1-3.4); BCS2: 2.5/1,000 (95% CI, 2.4-2.6)]. The cumulative risk of CIN2+ after 10 years was low in the HPV cohorts [HPV1: 4.7/1,000 (95% CI, 2.6-6.7); HPV2: 3.9 (95% CI, 1.1-6.6)]. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of CIN2+ 8 years after a negative screen in the HPV cohorts was comparable with risk after 3 years in the cytology cohorts (the benchmark for acceptable risk). IMPACT: These findings suggest that primary HPV screening intervals could be extended beyond the current 5-year recommendation, potentially reducing barriers to screening.

Screening for Breast Cancer: Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: Breast cancer is a leading cause of cancer mortality for US women. Trials have established that screening mammography can reduce mortality risk, but optimal screening ages, intervals, and modalities for population screening guidelines remain unclear. Objective: To review studies comparing different breast cancer screening strategies for the US Preventive Services Task Force. Data Sources: MEDLINE, Cochrane Library through August 22, 2022; literature surveillance through March 2024. Study Selection: English-language publications; randomized clinical trials and nonrandomized studies comparing screening strategies; expanded criteria for screening harms. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Two reviewers independently assessed study eligibility and quality; data extracted from fair- and good-quality studies. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality, morbidity, progression to advanced cancer, interval cancers, screening harms. Results: Seven randomized clinical trials and 13 nonrandomized studies were included; 2 nonrandomized studies reported mortality outcomes. A nonrandomized trial emulation study estimated no mortality difference for screening beyond age 74 years (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.83 to 1.19]). Advanced cancer detection did not differ following annual or biennial screening intervals in a nonrandomized study. Three trials compared digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) mammography screening with digital mammography alone. With DBT, more invasive cancers were detected at the first screening round than with digital mammography, but there were no statistically significant differences in interval cancers (pooled relative risk, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.64-1.17]; 3 studies [n = 130 196]; I2 = 0%). Risk of advanced cancer (stage II or higher) at the subsequent screening round was not statistically significant for DBT vs digital mammography in the individual trials. Limited evidence from trials and nonrandomized studies suggested lower recall rates with DBT. An RCT randomizing individuals with dense breasts to invitations for supplemental screening with magnetic resonance imaging reported reduced interval cancer risk (relative risk, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.29-0.77]) and additional false-positive recalls and biopsy results with the intervention; no longer-term advanced breast cancer incidence or morbidity and mortality outcomes were available. One RCT and 1 nonrandomized study of supplemental ultrasound screening reported additional false-positives and no differences in interval cancers. Conclusions and Relevance: Evidence comparing the effectiveness of different breast cancer screening strategies is inconclusive because key studies have not yet been completed and few studies have reported the stage shift or mortality outcomes necessary to assess relative benefits.

Colposcopy referral rates post-introduction of primary screening with human papillomavirus testing: evidence from a large British Columbia cohort study.

Background: Shifting from cytology to human papillomavirus (HPV)-based cervical cancer screening will initially increase colposcopy referrals. The anticipated impact on health systems has been raised as a concern for implementation. It is unclear if the higher rate of colposcopy referrals is sustained after initial HPV-based screens or reverts to new lower baselines due to earlier detection and treatment of precancer. This study aimed to investigate long-term rates of colposcopy referrals after participation in HPV-based screening. Methods: Participants of HPV for Cervical Cancer Screening trial (HPV FOCAL) received one (HPV1, N = 6204) or two (HPV2, N = 9540) HPV-based screens. After exit, they returned to British Columbia's (BC) cytology screening program. A comparison cohort from the BC screening population (BCS, N = 1,140,745) was identified, mirroring trial inclusion criteria. All participants were followed for 10-14 years through the provincial screening registry. Colposcopy referral rates per 1000 screens were calculated for each group. Trial colposcopy referrals for HPV1 and HPV2 were calculated under two referral scenarios: (1) all HPV positive referred to colposcopy; (2) cytology triage with ASCUS or greater referred to colposcopy. Colposcopy referrals from post-trial screens in HPV1 an HPV2 and all screens in BCS were based on actual recommendations from the screening program. A multivariable flexible survival regression model compared hazard ratios (HR) throughout follow-up. Findings: Scenario 2 referral rates were higher during initial HPV screen(s) vs cytology screen (HPV1: 28 per 1000 screens (95% CI: 24, 33), HPV2: 32 per 1000 screens (95% CI: 29, 36), BCS: 8 per 1000 screens (95% CI: 8.9)). However, post-trial rates in HPV1 and HPV2 were significantly lower than in BCS. Cumulative rates in HPV1 and HPV2 approached the cumulative rate in BCS 11-12 years after HPV-based screening (HPV1: 11 per 1000 screens (95% CI: 10, 12), HPV2: 16 per 1000 screens (95% CI: 15-17), BCS: 11 per 1000 screens (95% CI: 10, 11)). Adjusted models demonstrated reductions in referral rates in HPV1 (HR = 0.6, 95% CI: 0.5, 0.7) and HPV2 (HR = 0.7, 95% CI: 0.6, 0.8) relative to BCS by 54 and 72 months post-final HPV screen respectively. Interpretation: Reduced colposcopy referral rates were observed after initial rounds of HPV-based screening. After initial HPV screening, referral rates to colposcopy after cytology triage were below the current rates seen in a centralized cytology program after approximately four years. Any expected increase in referrals at initiation of HPV-based screening could be countered by staged program implementation. Funding: This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health (R01 CA221918), Michael Smith Health Research BC (RT-2021-1595), and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (MCT82072).

Interventions for Tobacco Cessation in Adults, Including Pregnant Persons: Updated Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: It has been estimated that in 2018 nearly 20% of adults in the US were currently using a tobacco product. Objective: To systematically review the effectiveness and safety of pharmacotherapy, behavioral interventions, and electronic cigarettes for tobacco cessation among adults, including pregnant persons, to inform the US Preventive Services Task Force. Data Sources: PubMed, PsycInfo, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination of Health Technology Assessment; surveillance through September 25, 2020. Study Selection: Systematic reviews of tobacco cessation interventions and randomized clinical trials that evaluated the effects of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) or pharmacotherapy among pregnant persons. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Independent critical appraisal and data abstraction; qualitative synthesis and random-effects meta-analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures: Health outcomes, tobacco cessation at 6 months or more, and adverse events. Results: Sixty-seven reviews addressing pharmacotherapy and behavioral interventions were included as well as 9 trials (N = 3942) addressing e-cigarettes for smoking cessation and 7 trials (N = 2285) of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) use in pregnancy. Combined pharmacotherapy and behavioral interventions (pooled risk ratio [RR], 1.83 [95% CI, 1.68-1.98]), NRT (RR, 1.55 [95% CI, 1.49-1.61]), bupropion (RR, 1.64 [95% CI, 1.52-1.77]), varenicline (RR, 2.24 [95% CI, 2.06-2.43]), and behavioral interventions such as advice from clinicians (RR, 1.76 [95% CI, 1.58-1.96]) were all associated with increased quit rates compared with minimal support or placebo at 6 months or longer. None of the drugs were associated with serious adverse events. Five trials (n = 3117) reported inconsistent findings on the effectiveness of electronic cigarettes on smoking cessation at 6 to 12 months among smokers when compared with placebo or NRT, and none suggested higher rates of serious adverse events. Among pregnant persons, behavioral interventions were associated with greater smoking cessation during late pregnancy (RR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.23-1.48]), compared with no intervention. Rates of validated cessation among pregnant women allocated to NRT compared with placebo were not significantly different (pooled RR, 1.11 [95% CI, 0.79-1.56], n = 2033). Conclusions and Relevance: There is strong evidence that a range of pharmacologic and behavioral interventions, both individually and in combination, are effective in increasing smoking cessation in nonpregnant adults. In pregnancy, behavioral interventions are effective for smoking cessation, but data are limited on the use of pharmacotherapy for smoking cessation. Data on the effectiveness and safety of electronic cigarettes for smoking cessation among adults are also limited and results are inconsistent.

Assessing 10-Year Safety of a Single Negative HPV Test for Cervical Cancer Screening: Evidence from FOCAL-DECADE Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Long-term safety of a single negative human papillomavirus (HPV) test for cervical cancer screening is unclear. The HPV FOr cerviCAL Cancer Trial (FOCAL) was a randomized trial comparing HPV testing with cytology. The FOCAL-DECADE cohort tracked women who received one HPV test during FOCAL, and were HPV negative, for up to 10 years to identify cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) and grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) detected through a provincial screening program. METHODS: FOCAL participants who received one HPV test, were negative, and had at least one post-FOCAL cervix screen were included (N = 5,537). We constructed cumulative incidence curves of CIN2+/CIN3+ detection, analyzed cumulative risk of detection at intervals post-HPV test, calculated average incidence rates for detection, and compared hazard across ages. RESULTS: Ten years after one negative HPV test, the probability of CIN2+ detection was lower than 1%, with most lesions detected 7 years or later. Average incidence rates of CIN2+/CIN3+ lesions over follow-up were 0.50 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.31-0.78] and 0.18 (95% CI, 0.07-0.36) per 1,000 person-years, respectively. Hazards were higher for younger ages (nonsignificant trend). CONCLUSIONS: Among women with a single negative HPV test, long-term risk of CIN2+ detection was low, particularly through 7 years of follow-up; thus, one negative HPV test appears to confer long-term protection from precancerous lesions. Even 10-year risk is sufficiently low to support extended testing intervals in average-risk populations. IMPACT: Our findings support the safety of screening policies using HPV testing alone at 5-year or longer intervals.

Survival benefits associated with surgery for advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Overall survival (OS) for advanced stage (IIIA-IV) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is highly variable, and retrospective data show a survival advantage for patients receiving therapeutic intent pulmonary resection. We hypothesized that this variability in OS can be modeled separately by stage to allow a personalized estimate of OS. METHODS: In a cohort of patients with advanced-stage NSCLC from the National Cancer Database, we assessed the accuracy of Surgical Selection Score (SSS) to predict OS using Cox proportional hazards models and determined by stage the effect of surgery on survival among people with similarly high levels of SSS. RESULTS: In total, 300,572 patients were identified; 18,701 (6%) had surgery. The SSS was a strong predictor of OS (C-index, 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89-0.90). We observed significantly greater OS (P < .001) among patients who had surgery. The hazard of death was at least 2 times greater for patients in the upper quartile of SSS who did not receive surgery compared with surgical patients even when adjusting for the SSS (stage IIIA: hazard ratio [HR], 2.1; 95% CI, 2.0-2.2, stage IIIB: HR, 2.3; 95% CI, 2.2-2.5, stage IV: HR, 2.3; 95% CI, 2.2-2.4). CONCLUSIONS: The SSS is highly predictive of individual OS and can be used as a risk assessment tool. These findings are important for a more robust evaluation of the likely benefits of surgical resection for these patients. After further prospective validation, the SSS can be used during treatment decision-making for patients with advanced-stage NSCLC.

Communicating Risks of Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Breast Cancer: Getting Beyond the Laundry List.

PURPOSE: According to the Institute of Medicine, high-quality cancer care should include effective communication between clinicians and patients about the risks and benefits, expected response, and impact on quality of life of a recommended therapy. In the delivery of oncology care, the barriers to and facilitators of communication about potential long-term and late effects, post-treatment expectations, and transition to survivorship care have not been fully defined. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We collected qualitative data through semistructured interviews with medical oncologists and focus groups with breast cancer survivors and applied the Theoretical Domains Framework to systematically analyze and identify the factors that may influence oncologists' communication with patients with breast cancer about the long-term and late effects of adjuvant therapy. RESULTS: Eight key informant interviews with medical oncologists and two focus groups with breast cancer survivors provided data. Both oncologists and patients perceived information on long-term effects as valuable in terms of improved clinical communication but had concerns about the feasibility of inclusion before treatment. They described the current approaches to communication of therapy risks as a brief laundry list that emphasized acute adverse effects and minimized more long-term issues. We describe the barriers to communication about potential long-term effects from the perspectives of both groups. CONCLUSION: This study provides insight into oncologists' communication with patients with breast cancer regarding the potential long-term and late effects of adjuvant chemotherapy and about setting realistic expectations for life after treatment. Opportunities to improve oncologists' communication about the potential toxicities of therapy, particularly regarding long-term and late effects, should be examined further.

Screening for Cervical Cancer With High-Risk Human Papillomavirus Testing: Updated Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: Cervical cancer can be prevented with detection and treatment of precancerous cell changes caused primarily by high-risk types of human papillomavirus (hrHPV), the causative agents in more than 90% of cervical cancers. Objective: To systematically review benefits and harms of cervical cancer screening for hrHPV to inform the US Preventive Services Task Force. Data Sources: MEDLINE, PubMed, PsycINFO, and the Cochrane Collaboration Registry of Controlled Trials from January 2011 through February 15, 2017; surveillance through May 25, 2018. Study Selection: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and cohort studies comparing primary hrHPV screening alone or hrHPV cotesting (both hrHPV testing and cytology) with cytology (Papanicolaou [Pap] test) screening alone. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Two investigators independently reviewed abstracts and full-text articles and quality rated included studies; data were qualitatively synthesized. Main Outcomes and Measures: Invasive cervical cancer; cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN); false-positive, colposcopy, and biopsy rates; psychological harms. Results: Eight RCTs (n = 410 556), 5 cohort studies (n = 402 615), and 1 individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis (n = 176 464) were included. Trials were heterogeneous for screening interval, number of rounds, and protocol. For primary hrHPV screening, evidence was consistent across 4 trials demonstrating increased detection of CIN 3 or worse (CIN 3+) in round 1 (relative risk [RR] range, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.09-2.37] to 7.46 [95% CI, 1.02-54.66]). Among 4 hrHPV cotesting trials, first-round CIN 3+ detection was not significantly different between screening groups; RRs for cumulative CIN 3+ detection over 2 screening rounds ranged from 0.91 to 1.13. In first-round screening, false-positive rates for primary hrHPV screening ranged from 6.6% to 7.4%, compared with 2.6% to 6.5% for cytology. For cotesting, false-positives ranged from 5.8% to 19.9% in the first round of screening, compared with 2.6% to 10.9% for cytology. First-round colposcopy rates were also higher, ranging 1.2% to 7.9% for primary hrHPV testing, compared with 1.1% to 3.1% for cytology alone; colposcopy rates for cotesting ranged from 6.8% to 10.9%, compared with 3.3% to 5.2% for cytology alone. The IPD meta-analysis of data from 4 cotesting trials and 1 primary hrHPV screening trial found lower risk of invasive cervical cancer with any hrHPV screening compared with cytology alone (pooled RR, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.40-0.89]). Conclusions and Relevance: Primary hrHPV screening detected higher rates of CIN 3+ at first-round screening compared with cytology. Cotesting trials did not show initial increased CIN 3+ detection. Both hrHPV screening strategies had higher false-positive and colposcopy rates than cytology, which could lead to more treatments with potential harms.

Prostate-Specific Antigen-Based Screening for Prostate Cancer: Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: Prostate cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death among US men. Objective: To systematically review evidence on prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based prostate cancer screening, treatments for localized prostate cancer, and prebiopsy risk calculators to inform the US Preventive Services Task Force. Data Sources: Searches of PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Registries and Databases from July 1, 2011, through July 15, 2017, with a surveillance search on February 1, 2018. Study Selection: English-language reports of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of screening; cohort studies reporting harms; RCTs and cohort studies of active localized cancer treatments vs conservative approaches (eg, active surveillance, watchful waiting); external validations of prebiopsy risk calculators to identify aggressive cancers. Data Extraction and Synthesis: One investigator abstracted data; a second checked accuracy. Two investigators independently rated study quality. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prostate cancer and all-cause mortality; false-positive screening results, biopsy complications, overdiagnosis; adverse effects of active treatments. Random-effects meta-analyses were conducted for treatment harms. Results: Sixty-three studies in 104 publications were included (N = 1 904 950). Randomization to PSA screening was not associated with reduced risk of prostate cancer mortality in either a US trial with substantial control group contamination (n = 76 683) or a UK trial with low adherence to a single PSA screen (n = 408 825) but was associated with significantly reduced prostate cancer mortality in a European trial (n = 162 243; relative risk [RR], 0.79 [95% CI, 0.69-0.91]; absolute risk reduction, 1.1 deaths per 10 000 person-years [95% CI, 0.5-1.8]). Of 61 604 men screened in the European trial, 17.8% received false-positive results. In 3 cohorts (n = 15 136), complications requiring hospitalization occurred in 0.5% to 1.6% of men undergoing biopsy after abnormal screening findings. Overdiagnosis was estimated to occur in 20.7% to 50.4% of screen-detected cancers. In an RCT of men with screen-detected prostate cancer (n = 1643), neither radical prostatectomy (hazard ratio [HR], 0.63 [95% CI, 0.21-1.93]) nor radiation therapy (HR, 0.51 [95% CI, 0.15-1.69]) were associated with significantly reduced prostate cancer mortality vs active monitoring, although each was associated with significantly lower risk of metastatic disease. Relative to conservative management, radical prostatectomy was associated with increased risk of urinary incontinence (pooled RR, 2.27 [95% CI, 1.82-2.84]; 3 trials; n = 1796) and erectile dysfunction (pooled RR, 1.82 [95% CI, 1.62-2.04]; 2 trials; n = 883). Relative to conservative management (8 cohort studies; n = 3066), radiation therapy was associated with increased risk of erectile dysfunction (pooled RR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.20-1.42]). Conclusions and Relevance: PSA screening may reduce prostate cancer mortality risk but is associated with false-positive results, biopsy complications, and overdiagnosis. Compared with conservative approaches, active treatments for screen-detected prostate cancer have unclear effects on long-term survival but are associated with sexual and urinary difficulties.

Chemotherapy-Associated Peripheral Neuropathy in Patients With Early-Stage Breast Cancer: A Systematic Review.

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women worldwide, and survival rates are increasing. Chemotherapy-associated peripheral neuropathy (PN) is clinically important because of effects on quality of life (QOL) and potential effects on dose limitations. This adverse drug reaction is associated with certain classes of chemotherapy and commonly presents as peripheral sensory neuropathy whose natural course is largely unknown. The literature was reviewed to determine the frequency and characteristics of PN associated with adjuvant chemotherapy in early-stage breast cancer (ESBC) to explore the potential impact on long-term (one or more years after diagnosis) health outcomes and QOL. MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched for relevant English-language randomized controlled trials, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and case-control and cohort studies published between January 1990 and July 1996. Included studies were limited to current adjuvant regimens (eg, anthracyclines, taxanes, cyclophosphamide, platinum compounds). Two investigators independently reviewed abstracts, full-text articles, and extracted data from fair- and good-quality studies. Discrepancies in quality assessment and data extraction were resolved by consensus. We identified 364 articles; 60 were eligible for full-text review. Only five reports of four studies provided data beyond one year post-treatment initiation. Studies used different measures to assess PN. Neuropathic symptoms persisted in 11.0% to more than 80% of participants at one to three years following treatment. There is a paucity of data describing persistent PN in ESBC patients. Consistent use of validated measures and well-conducted randomized clinical trials or observational studies are needed to evaluate the incidence, persistence, and QOL associated with the long-term effects of PN.

Long-term Peripheral Neuropathy in Breast Cancer Patients Treated With Adjuvant Chemotherapy: NRG Oncology/NSABP B-30.

Background: The long-term effects of chemotherapy are sparsely reported. Peripheral neuropathy (PN) is one of the most frequent toxicities associated with taxane use for the treatment of early-stage breast cancer. We investigated the impact of the three different docetaxel-based regimens and patient characteristics on long-term, patient-reported outcomes of PN and the impact of PN on long-term quality of life (QOL). Methods: The National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Protocol B-30 was a randomized trial comparing sequential doxorubicin (A) and cyclophosphamide (C) followed by docetaxel (T) (AC→T), concurrent ACT, or AT in women with node-positive, early-stage breast cancer. The AC→T group had a higher cumulative dose of T. PN was one of the symptoms assessed in a QOL substudy. Statistical methods included simple and mixed ordinal logistic regression and general linear models. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: Of 1512 patients, 41.9% reported PN two years after treatment initiation. Treatment with AT and ACT was associated with less severe long-term PN compared with AC→T (odds ratio [OR] = 0.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.35 to 0.58; OR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.46 to 0.75). Preexisting PN, older age, obesity, mastectomy, and greater number of positive nodes were also associated with higher risk of long-term PN. Patients who reported worse PN symptoms at 24 months had statistically significantly worse QOL (Ptrend < .001). Conclusions: The administration of docetaxel is associated with long-term PN. The lower rate of long-term PN in AT and ACT patients might be an important consideration in supporting choosing these therapies for individuals with preexisting neuropathic symptoms or other risk factors for neuropathy.

A Model to Predict the Use of Surgical Resection for Advanced-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients.

BACKGROUND: For advanced-stage non-small cell lung cancer, chemotherapy and chemoradiotherapy are the primary treatments. Although surgical intervention in these patients is associated with improved survival, the effect of selection bias is poorly defined. Our objective was to characterize selection bias and identify potential surgical candidates by constructing a Surgical Selection Score (SSS). METHODS: Patients with clinical stage IIIA, IIIB, or IV non-small cell lung cancer were identified in the National Cancer Data Base from 1998 to 2012. Logistic regression was used to develop the SSS based on clinical characteristics. Estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to assess discrimination performance of the SSS. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare patients with similar SSSs. RESULTS: We identified 300,572 patients with stage IIIA, IIIB, or IV non-small cell lung cancer without missing data; 6% (18,701) underwent surgical intervention. The surgical cohort was 57% stage IIIA (n = 10,650), 19% stage IIIB (n = 3,483), and 24% stage IV (n = 4,568). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve from the best-fit logistic regression model in the training and validation sets were not significantly different, at 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 0.83) and 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 0.83). The range of SSS is 43 to 1,141. As expected, SSS was a good predictor of survival. Within each quartile of SSS, patients in the surgical group had significantly longer survival than nonsurgical patients (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A prediction model for selection of patients for surgical intervention was created. Once validated and prospectively tested, this model may be used to identify patients who may benefit from surgical intervention.

The Role of Thoracic Surgery in the Therapeutic Management of Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: In most patients with NSCLC, the disease is diagnosed in an advanced stage, the prognosis is poor, and survival is typically measured in months. Standard therapeutic treatment regimens for patients with stage IV NSCLC typically include chemotherapy and palliative radiation. Despite newer regimens that may include molecularly targeted therapy and immunotherapy, the overall 5-year survival for stage IV disease remains low at 4% to 6%. Although therapeutic surgery is performed in a minority of cases, accumulating data suggest that thoracic surgery may play several beneficial roles for these patients. METHODS: In this narrative review, we summarize the literature on surgical intervention in the multimodality management of stage IV NSCLC, focusing on the potential evidence for and against therapeutic or curative intent procedures to affect outcomes for patients with oligometastatic disease and pleural metastasis. RESULTS: In selected patients, surgical resection can result in a 5-year survival rate of 30% to 50%, but this is heavily influenced by the presence of mediastinal nodal disease, which should be evaluated before therapeutic surgical procedures are undertaken. Additionally, diagnostic or palliative surgical procedures can play an important role in the personalized management of stage IV disease. These data suggest that for carefully selected patients with advanced stage NSCLC, surgical intervention can be an important component of combined modality treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Given the advances in molecular targeted therapy and immunotherapy, further studies should focus on the possible use of surgery as a strategy of therapeutic "consolidation" for appropriately selected patients with stage IV NSCLC who are receiving combined modality care.

Increasing Rates of No Treatment in Advanced-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients: A Propensity-Matched Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Variation in treatment and survival outcomes for NSCLC is high among patients with stage III or IV disease, but patients with untreated NSCLC have not been critically analyzed to evaluate for improvable outcomes. We evaluated treatment trends and their association with oncologic outcomes for NSCLC, hypothesizing that there are a substantial number of untreated patients who are similar to patients who undergo treatment. METHODS: Linear regression was used to calculate trends in utilization of treatment. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression modeling were used to determine predictors of receiving treatment. Propensity matching was used to compare survival among subsets of treated versus untreated patients. RESULTS: Patients with primary NSCLC were identified from the National Cancer Data base from 1998 to 2012, and 21% of patients (190,539) received no treatment. For stage IIIA and IV, the proportion of untreated patients increased over the study period by 0.21% and 0.4%, respectively (p = 0.003 and p < 0.0001). Regardless of stage, untreated patients had significantly shorter overall survival (OS) (p < 0.0001). Propensity-matched analyses of 6144 stage IIIA patient pairs treated with chemoradiation versus no treatment confirmed shorter OS for untreated patients (median 16.5 versus 6.1 months, p < 0.0001). For 19,046 stage IV patient pairs treated with chemotherapy versus no treatment, similar results were obtained (median OS 9.3 versus 2.0 months, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of untreated patients with stage IIIA and IV disease is increasing. Survival outcomes among patients with advanced-stage disease are superior with treatment, independent of selection bias. The benefits and risks of treatment should be carefully assessed before choosing to forego treatment.

Amputation trends for patients with lower extremity ulcers due to diabetes and peripheral artery disease using statewide data.

OBJECTIVE: This study reports all-payer amputation rates using state-based administrative claims data for high-risk patients with lower extremity (LE) ulcers and concomitant peripheral artery disease (PAD), diabetes mellitus (DM), or combination PAD/DM. In addition, we characterize patient factors that affect amputation-free survival. We also attempted to create a measure of a patient's ability to manage chronic diseases or to access appropriate outpatient care for ulcer management by accounting for hospital and emergency department (ED) visits in the preceding 60 days to determine how this also affects amputation-free survival. METHODS: Patients admitted to nonfederal hospitals, seen in an ED, or treated in an eligible ambulatory surgery center within California from 2005 through 2013 with an International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis code for a disease-specific LE ulcer were identified in the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development database. All subsequent hospital, ED, and ambulatory surgery center visits and procedures are captured to identify whether a patient underwent major amputation. Yearly amputation rates were determined to analyze trends. Amputation-free survival for the PAD, DM, and PAD/DM groups was determined. Cox modeling was used to evaluate the effect of patient characteristics. RESULTS: There were 219,547 patients identified with an incident LE ulcer throughout the state. Of these, 131,731 were DM associated, 36,193 were PAD associated, and 51,623 were associated with both PAD and DM. From 2005 to 2013, the number of patients with LE ulcers who required inpatient admission, presented to the ED, or had outpatient procedures was stable. However, there was a statistically significant increase in overall disease-associated amputation rates from 5.1 in 2005 to 13.5 in 2013 (P < .001). Patients with PAD/DM had the greatest increase in amputation rates from 10 per 100 patients with LE ulcers in 2005 to 28 per 100 patients in 2013 (P < .001). Despite that patients with PAD/DM were 8 years younger than patients with PAD only, they had similar amputation-free survival. Within all age groups, men had worse amputation-free survival than women did. Race did not predict amputation-free survival, but having multiple prior ED or hospital admissions was a significant predictor of worse amputation-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Potentially preventable amputations associated with high-risk diseases are increasing among patients who require inpatient hospital admission, present to the ED, or require outpatient interventional treatment. This trend is most notable among patients with a combination of PAD and DM. Patients with repeated hospitalizations before admission for the LE ulcer had the highest risk of amputation.

Radiation-Induced Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality From Digital Mammography Screening: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of risk for radiation-induced breast cancer from mammography screening have not considered variation in dose exposure or diagnostic work-up after abnormal screening results. OBJECTIVE: To estimate distributions of radiation-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality from digital mammography screening while considering exposure from screening and diagnostic mammography and dose variation among women. DESIGN: 2 simulation-modeling approaches. SETTING: U.S. population. PATIENTS: Women aged 40 to 74 years. INTERVENTION: Annual or biennial digital mammography screening from age 40, 45, or 50 years until age 74 years. MEASUREMENTS: Lifetime breast cancer deaths averted (benefits) and radiation-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality (harms) per 100,000 women screened. RESULTS: Annual screening of 100,000 women aged 40 to 74 years was projected to induce 125 breast cancer cases (95% CI, 88 to 178) leading to 16 deaths (CI, 11 to 23), relative to 968 breast cancer deaths averted by early detection from screening. Women exposed at the 95th percentile were projected to develop 246 cases of radiation-induced breast cancer leading to 32 deaths per 100,000 women. Women with large breasts requiring extra views for complete examination (8% of population) were projected to have greater radiation-induced breast cancer risk (266 cancer cases and 35 deaths per 100,000 women) than other women (113 cancer cases and 15 deaths per 100,000 women). Biennial screening starting at age 50 years reduced risk for radiation-induced cancer 5-fold. LIMITATION: Life-years lost from radiation-induced breast cancer could not be estimated. CONCLUSION: Radiation-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality from digital mammography screening are affected by dose variability from screening, resultant diagnostic work-up, initiation age, and screening frequency. Women with large breasts may have a greater risk for radiation-induced breast cancer. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, National Cancer Institute.

Supplemental Screening for Breast Cancer in Women With Dense Breasts: A Systematic Review for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

BACKGROUND: Screening mammography has lower sensitivity and specificity in women with dense breasts, who experience higher breast cancer risk. PURPOSE: To perform a systematic review of reproducibility of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) density categorization and test performance and clinical outcomes of supplemental screening with breast ultrasonography, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) in women with dense breasts and negative mammography results. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane database from January 2000 to July 2015. STUDY SELECTION: Studies reporting BI-RADS density reproducibility or supplemental screening results for women with dense breasts. DATA EXTRACTION: Quality assessment and abstraction of 24 studies from 7 countries; 6 studies were good-quality. DATA SYNTHESIS: Three good-quality studies reported reproducibility of BI-RADS density; 13% to 19% of women were recategorized between "dense" and "nondense" at subsequent screening. Two good-quality studies reported that sensitivity of ultrasonography for women with negative mammography results ranged from 80% to 83%; specificity, from 86% to 94%; and positive predictive value (PPV), from 3% to 8%. The sensitivity of MRI ranged from 75% to 100%; specificity, from 78% to 94%; and PPV, from 3% to 33% (3 studies). Rates of additional cancer detection with ultrasonography were 4.4 per 1000 examinations (89% to 93% invasive); recall rates were 14%. Use of MRI detected 3.5 to 28.6 additional cancer cases per 1000 examinations (34% to 86% invasive); recall rates were 12% to 24%. Rates of cancer detection with DBT increased by 1.4 to 2.5 per 1000 examinations compared with mammography alone (3 studies). Recall rates ranged from 7% to 11%, compared with 7% to 17% with mammography alone. No studies examined breast cancer outcomes. LIMITATIONS: Good-quality evidence was sparse. Studies were small and CIs were wide. Definitions of recall were absent or inconsistent. CONCLUSION: Density ratings may be recategorized on serial screening mammography. Supplemental screening of women with dense breasts finds additional breast cancer but increases false-positive results. Use of DBT may reduce recall rates. Effects of supplemental screening on breast cancer outcomes remain unclear. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Cost-effectiveness of the PECARN rules in children with minor head trauma.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To improve the efficiency and appropriateness of computed tomography (CT) use in children with minor head trauma, clinical prediction rules were derived and validated by the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN). The objective of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the PECARN traumatic brain injury prediction rules to usual care for selective CT use. METHODS: We used decision analytic modeling to project the outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of applying the PECARN rules compared with usual care in a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 children with minor blunt head trauma. Clinical management was directed by level of risk as specified by the presence or absence of variables in the PECARN traumatic brain injury prediction rules. Immediate costs of care (diagnostic testing, treatment [not including clinician time], and hospital stay) were derived on single-center data. Quality-adjusted life-year losses related to the sequelae of clinically important traumatic brain injuries and to radiation-induced cancers, number of CT scans, number of radiation-induced cancers, number of missed clinically important traumatic brain injury, and total costs were evaluated. RESULTS: Compared with the usual care strategy, the PECARN strategy was projected to miss slightly more children with clinically important traumatic brain injuries (0.26 versus 0.02 per 1,000 children) but used fewer cranial CT scans (274 versus 353), resulted in fewer radiation-induced cancers (0.34 versus 0.45), cost less ($904,940 versus $954,420), and had lower net quality-adjusted life-year loss (-4.64 versus -5.79). Because the PECARN strategy was more effective (less quality-adjusted life-year loss) and less costly, it dominated the usual care strategy. Results were robust under sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Application of the PECARN traumatic brain injury prediction rules for children with minor head trauma would lead to beneficial outcomes and more cost-effective care.

Models in the development of clinical practice guidelines.

Clinical practice guidelines should be based on the best scientific evidence derived from systematic reviews of primary research. However, these studies often do not provide evidence needed by guideline development groups to evaluate the tradeoffs between benefits and harms. In this article, the authors identify 4 areas where models can bridge the gaps between published evidence and the information needed for guideline development applying new or updated information on disease risk, diagnostic test properties, and treatment efficacy; exploring a more complete array of alternative intervention strategies; assessing benefits and harms over a lifetime horizon; and projecting outcomes for the conditions for which the guideline is intended. The use of modeling as an approach to bridge these gaps (provided that the models are high-quality and adequately validated) is considered. Colorectal and breast cancer screening are used as examples to show the utility of models for these purposes. The authors propose that a modeling study is most useful when strong primary evidence is available to inform the model but critical gaps remain between the evidence and the questions that the guideline group must address. In these cases, model results have a place alongside the findings of systematic reviews to inform health care practice and policy.

Can automated alerts within computerized physician order entry improve compliance with laboratory practice guidelines for ordering Pap tests?

BACKGROUND: The electronic health record (EHR) provides opportunity to improve health and enhance appropriate test utilization through decision support. Electronic alerts in the order entry system can guide test use. Few published reports have assessed the impact of automated alerts on compliance of Pap ordering with published screening guidelines. METHODS: Programming rules for Pap test ordering were developed within the EHR (Epic, Madison, WI) of the University of California, Davis Health System using American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology's 2009 guidelines and implemented in primary care clinics in 2010. Alerts discouraged Pap orders in women <21 and >71 years and displayed when an order was initiated. Providers were not prevented from placing an order. Results were measured during four calendar periods: (1) pre-alert (baseline) (July 2010 to June 2011), (2) post alert (alerts on) (July 2011 to December 2011), (3) inadvertent alert turn-off ("glitch") (January 2012 to December 2012), (5) post-glitch (alerts re-instated) (1/2013-7/2013). Metrics used to measure alert impact were between time and period seasonally adjusted relative frequency ratios. RESULTS: Alerts were most effective in the <21 year old age group. During the baseline period 2.7 Pap tests were order in patients less than age 21 for every 100 Paps in those 21-71 years of age. This relative frequency decreased to 1.7 in the post-alert period and 1.4 during the glitch, with an even greater decline to 0.8 post-glitch when alerts were reinstated. Less impact was observed in the >70 year old group where the baseline relative frequency was 2.4 and declined to 2.1 post-alert, remained stable at 2.0 during the glitch period, and declined again to 1.7 post-glitch when alerts were reinstated. This likely reflects inclusion of women with a history of abnormal Pap tests for whom continued Pap testing is indicated, as well as reluctance by providers and patients to accept discontinuation of Pap testing for women with a history of normal Pap results. In both age groups, decreases in ordering were greatest when the alerts were functioning, indicating that the alerts had an effect beyond the influences of the environment. CONCLUSIONS: Discouraging alerts can impact ordering of Pap tests and improve compliance with established guidelines, thus avoiding unnecessary follow-up tests that can create potential patient harm and unnecessary expense. Alerts represent a potential model to address utilization of other lab tests. Longer study intervals are necessary to determine if provider compliance is maintained.