Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Pathways for Urban Passenger Land Transport under Ambitious Climate Targets.

Urban passenger land transport is an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally, but it is challenging to mitigate these emissions as this sector interacts with many other economic sectors. We develop the Climate change constrained Urban passenger Transport Integrated Life cycle assessment (CURTAIL) model to outline mitigation pathways of urban passenger land transport that are consistent with ambitious climate targets. CURTAIL uses the transport activity of exogenously defined modal shares to simulate the associated annual vehicle stocks, sales, and life cycle GHG emissions. It estimates GHG emission budgets that are consistent with global warming below 2 and 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and seeks mitigation strategies to remain within the budgets. We apply it to a case study of Singapore, a city-state. Meeting a 1.5 °C target requires strong commitments in the transport and electricity sectors, such as reducing the motorized passenger activity, accelerating the deployment of public transit and of electrification, and decarbonizing the power generation system. Focusing on one mitigation technology or one mode of transport alone will not be sufficient to meet the target. Our novel model could be applied to any city to provide insights relevant to the design of urban climate change mitigation targets and policies.

A Dynamic Fleet Model of U.S Light-Duty Vehicle Lightweighting and Associated Greenhouse Gas Emissions from 2016 to 2050.

Substituting conventional materials with lightweight materials is an effective way to reduce the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from light-duty vehicles. However, estimated GHG emission reductions of lightweighting depend on multiple factors including the vehicle powertrain technology and efficiency, lightweight material employed, and end-of-life material recovery. We developed a fleet-based life cycle model to estimate the GHG emission changes due to lightweighting the U.S. light-duty fleet from 2016 to 2050, using either high strength steel or aluminum as the lightweight material. Our model estimates that implementation of an aggressive lightweighting scenario using aluminum reduces 2016 through 2050 cumulative life cycle GHG emissions from the fleet by 2.9 Gt CO2 eq (5.6%), and annual emissions in 2050 by 11%. Lightweighting has the greatest GHG emission reduction potential when implemented in the near-term, with two times more reduction per kilometer traveled if implemented in 2016 rather than in 2030. Delaying implementation by 15 years sacrifices 72% (2.1 Gt CO2 eq) of the cumulative GHG emission mitigation potential through 2050. Lightweighting is an effective solution that could provide important near-term GHG emission reductions especially during the next 10-20 years when the fleet is dominated by conventional powertrain vehicles.