Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of adults in the PATH Study in 2017-2019 vs 2019-2021.

INTRODUCTION: The use of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) has likely changed since 2019 with the rise of pods and disposables, the lung injuries outbreak, flavour bans, Tobacco 21 and the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Using the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, we applied a multistate transition model to 28 061 adults in waves 4-5 (2017-2019) and 24 584 adults in waves 5-6 (2019-2021), estimating transition rates for initiation, cessation and switching products for each period overall and by age group. RESULTS: Cigarette initiation among adults who never used either product decreased from 2017-2019 to 2019-2021, but ENDS initiation did not significantly change. The persistence of ENDS-only use remained high (75%-80% after 1 year). Cigarette-only use transitions remained similar (88% remaining, 7% to non-current use and 5% to dual or ENDS-only use). In contrast, dual use to ENDS-only transitions increased from 9.5% (95% CI 7.3% to 11.7%) to 20.0% (95% CI 17.4% to 22.6%) per year, decreasing the persistence of dual use. The dual to cigarette-only use transition remained at about 25%. These changes were qualitatively similar across adult age groups, though adults ages 18-24 years exhibited the highest probability of switching from cigarette-only use to dual use and from dual use to ENDS-only use. CONCLUSIONS: The persistence of ENDS use among adults remained high in 2019-2021, but a larger fraction of dual users transitioned to ENDS-only use compared with 2017-2019. Because the fraction of cigarette-only users switching to dual use remained low, especially among older adults, the public health implications of this change are minimal.

Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of adults in the PATH Study in 2017-2019 vs 2019-2021.

Introduction: The use of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) has likely changed since 2019 with the rise of pods and disposables, the outbreak of lung injuries related to vaping THC, flavor bans, and the COVID pandemic. We analyzed patterns of initiation, cessation, and transitions between cigarettes, ENDS, and dual use before and after 2019. Methods: Using the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, we applied a multistate transition model to 28,061 adults in Waves 4-5 (2017-19) and 24,751 adults in Waves 5-6 (2019-21), estimating transition rates for initiation, cessation, and switching products for each period overall and by age group. Results: Cigarette initiation among adults who never used either product decreased from 2017-19 to 2019-21, but ENDS initiation did not significantly change. Persistence of ENDS-only use remained high, with 75-80% still using ENDS only after 1 year. Cigarette-only use transitions remained similar, with about 88% remaining, 7% transitioning to non-current use, and 5% transitioning to dual or ENDS-only use. In contrast, dual use to ENDS-only transitions increased from 9.5% (95%CI: 7.3-11.7%) to 20.1% (95%CI: 17.5-22.7%) per year from 2017-19 to 2019-21, decreasing the persistence of dual use. The dual use to cigarette-only transition remained at about 25%. These changes were qualitatively similar across adult age groups, though adults ages 18-24 years exhibited the highest probability of switching from cigarette-only use to dual use and from dual use to ENDS-only use. Conclusions: Persistence of ENDS use among adults remained high in 2019-21, but a larger fraction of dual users transitioned to ENDS-only use compared to 2017-19. Because the fraction of cigarette-only users switching to dual use remained low, the public health implications of the increased dual use to ENDS-only transition are minimal.

Awareness and Use of e-cigarettes among Adolescents and Their Adult Caregivers in Two Cities of India.

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVE: E-cigarette use poses an additional risk for individuals who are not cigarette smokers, especially adolescents. The marketing tactics of the industry have substantially increased the prevalence of e-cigarettes, use among adolescents. India banned e-cigarette in September 2019 that has been criticized by interested groups.  We investigated that among adults and adolescents, who are more aware and using e-cigarette more? METHODS: The data were taken from a population-based representative household survey conducted in Mumbai and Kolkata in the year 2019-2020.  A household was enrolled if it had a 12-14 year old adolescent living in it and both adolescent and adult caregivers agreed to participate in the survey. The data from 944 adolescents out of 15,436 enumerated in Mumbai and 1038 out of 24,284 enumerated in Kolkata and their caregivers were analyzed for awareness and ever use of e-cigarettes.  Result: The awareness of e-cigarettes among 12-14 year olds in Mumbai was 15.5%, almost identical among boys and girls whereas is in Kolkata it was 11.2%. In contrast, among the adolescents' adult caregivers in Mumbai, the awareness was low, 3.9% and in Kolkata, 4.6%. Overall awareness was significantly higher among adolescents than among caregivers, especially among adolescent girls than among female caregivers in both cities. CONCLUSION: The awareness and the use of e-cigarette were very little and the messages from the e-cigarette industry seem to be targeted more towards adolescents than adults.  The ban on an e-cigarette in India has helped in prevented the marketing of ENDS to adolescents.

The role of flavored electronic nicotine delivery systems in smoking cessation: A systematic review.

Background: Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) come in numerous flavors and may aid smoking cessation. This systematic review examines evidence on the role of ENDS flavors in smoking cessation. Methods: We searched EMBASE OVID, PsychInfo, and Medline databases for studies that: 1) examined cigarette cessation outcomes for persons using ENDS (intent, attempts, and success) and 2) reported results separated by respondent's ENDS flavor used. We extracted crude and adjusted odds ratios for associations between cessation outcomes and types of ENDS flavors used (nontobacco vs. tobacco/unflavored; nontobacco and nonmenthol vs. tobacco/unflavored and menthol). We did not consider cessation outcomes among people not using ENDS. We evaluated the evidence using the GRADE approach, focusing on consistency and reliability of findings across studies. Results: 29 studies met inclusion criteria, producing 36 odds ratios (ORs) comparing cessation outcomes across ENDS flavor groups. Three ORs examined quit intent, five examined quit attempts, and 28 examined quit success. Using GRADE, we reached Low levels of certainty that there was not an association between ENDS flavor use and intention to quit smoking or making a quit attempt. There were Very Low levels of certainty that nontobacco flavored versus tobacco/unflavored ENDS use was not associated with smoking cessation success, with similar findings for nonmenthol and nontobacco compared to tobacco and menthol flavored ENDS. Conclusion: The evidence about the role of different flavored ENDS use and smoking cessation outcomes is inconclusive, reflecting highly heterogeneous study definitions and methodological limitations. More high-quality evidence, ideally from randomized controlled trials, is required.

Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of youth and adults in the PATH Study in 2015-2017 vs 2017-2019.

INTRODUCTION: It is unknown how recent changes in the tobacco product marketplace have impacted transitions in cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) use. METHODS: A multistate transition model was applied to 24 242 adults and 12 067 youth in waves 2-4 (2015-2017) and 28 061 adults and 12 538 youth in waves 4 and 5 (2017-2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. Transition rates for initiation, cessation and product transitions were estimated in multivariable models, accounting for gender, age group, race/ethnicity and daily versus non-daily product use. RESULTS: Changes in ENDS initiation/relapse rates depended on age, including among adults. Among youth who had never established tobacco use, the 1-year probability of ENDS initiation increased after 2017 from 1.6% (95% CI 1.4% to 1.8%) to 3.8% (95% CI 3.4% to 4.2%). Persistence of ENDS-only use (ie, 1-year probability of continuing to use ENDS only) increased for youth from 40.7% (95% CI 34.4% to 46.9%) to 65.7% (95% CI 60.5% to 71.1%) and for adults from 57.8% (95% CI 54.4% to 61.3%) to 78.2% (95% CI 76.0% to 80.4%). Persistence of dual use similarly increased for youth from 48.3% (95% CI 37.4% to 59.2%) to 60.9% (95% CI 43.0% to 78.8%) and for adults from 40.1% (95% CI 37.0% to 43.2%) to 63.8% (95% CI 59.6% to 67.6%). Youth and young adults who used both products became more likely to transition to ENDS-only use, but middle-aged and older adults did not. CONCLUSIONS: ENDS-only and dual use became more persistent. Middle-aged and older adults who used both products became less likely to transition to cigarette-only use but not more likely to discontinue cigarettes. Youth and young adults became more likely to transition to ENDS-only use.

Public health impact of a US ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars: a simulation study.

INTRODUCTION: The US Food and Drug Administration most recently announced its intention to ban menthol cigarettes and cigars nationwide in April 2021. Implementation of the ban will require evidence that it would improve public health. This paper simulates the potential public health impact of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars through its impacts on smoking initiation, smoking cessation and switching to nicotine vaping products (NVPs). METHODS: After calibrating an established US simulation model to reflect recent use trends in cigarette and NVP use, we extended the model to incorporate menthol and non-menthol cigarette use under a status quo scenario. Applying estimates from a recent expert elicitation on the behavioural impacts of a menthol ban, we developed a menthol ban scenario with the ban starting in 2021. We estimated the public health impact as the difference between smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost in the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario from 2021 to 2060. RESULTS: As a result of the ban, overall smoking was estimated to decline by 15% as early as 2026 due to menthol smokers quitting both NVP and combustible use or switching to NVPs. These transitions are projected to reduce cumulative smoking and vaping-attributable deaths from 2021 to 2060 by 5% (650 000 in total) and reduce life-years lost by 8.8% (11.3 million). Sensitivity analyses showed appreciable public health benefits across different parameter specifications. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Our findings strongly support the implementation of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars.

Health Effects of Electronic Cigarettes: An Umbrella Review and Methodological Considerations.

E-cigarettes are often marketed as a safer alternative to combustible cigarettes. However, their health effects, especially those associated with long-term use, remain largely uncertain. We conducted an umbrella review of the cardiopulmonary and carcinogenic risks of e-cigarette use, distinguishing between short-term and long-term health effects. The search for systematic reviews was conducted across four electronic databases through 25 January 2022. Methodological quality was assessed using the AMSTAR-2 quality appraisal tool. Seventeen systematic reviews, including five meta-analyses, were included in our umbrella review. There was a clear underreporting of e-cigarette devices and e-liquid types, e-cigarette and cigarette exposure, and the health and smoking status of study participants. Overall, the findings suggest that short-term use of e-cigarettes may be associated with acute cardiopulmonary risks, although to a lesser extent than cigarette use. Long-term e-cigarette use may have pulmonary/respiratory benefits in those who switch from chronic cigarette smoking, particularly in individuals with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Evidence on intermediate and long-term carcinogenic effects is lacking. This umbrella review underscores the urgent need for systematic reviews with better adherence to established reporting guidelines, consistent definitions of duration of e-cigarette use, a focus on newer devices, and accounting for the impacts of former or current smoking.

The Impact of Current Tobacco Product Use Definitions on Estimates of Transitions Between Cigarette and ENDS Use.

INTRODUCTION: Definitions of current tobacco and nicotine delivery product use vary and depend on frequency of use, established-use criteria, and the product type. Previous research has not considered how transition rates between current use of different products depend on the current use definition. AIMS AND METHODS: We applied a multistate transition model to data on U.S. adults from waves 1-4 (2013-2017) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study. We estimated transition rates between never, non-current, cigarette, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), and dual use states with and without established-use criteria (has smoked 100+ cigarettes in their lifetime; ever fairly regularly used ENDS) and different frequency thresholds (1+, 10+, 20+, and 30 days of the past 30 days). We considered use below a frequency threshold as either non-current use or a distinct, infrequent use category. RESULTS: When treating use below a frequency threshold as non-current use, transition probability estimates were largely robust to the choice of use frequency threshold, although sole ENDS users were more likely to transition to non-current use or dual use as the current use threshold increased. Removing the established-use criterion for ENDS reduced the estimates of sole ENDS and dual users staying in their use state. When treating infrequent use as a separate category, transition probability estimates were dependent on the use frequency threshold, particularly transitions among the dual use states. CONCLUSIONS: Product use definitions have important implications for assessing product use transitions and thus the public health implications of cigarette and ENDS control strategies. IMPLICATIONS: How we define "current use" of tobacco and nicotine delivery products changes our estimates of how individuals transition to, between, and from different patterns of use. We show that the robustness of transition estimates to whether or not non-established users are included as current users and to different frequency-of-use threshold depends in part on whether low-frequency users are categorized as non-current users or as a distinct category. Our results emphasize the importance of intentional definitions of product use that reflect the larger goals of public health and tobacco control.

Short communication: Racial/ethnic disparities in cigar and cigarette exclusive, dual, and polyuse among adults.

Background: Despite documented racial/ethnic differences in cigar use, disparities in the context of dual and polyuse with cigarettes are unclear. Methods: Using the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (2016-18), we examined prevalence and intensity of use patterns among adults (18+) who were Non-Hispanic (NH) Black, NH White, Hispanic, or another race/ethnicity: exclusive cigarillo, filtered cigar, traditional cigar, or cigarette use; dual use of each cigar product with cigarettes; dual or polyuse of cigars without cigarettes; and cigar and cigarette polyuse. We used multinomial logistic regression to compare odds of each pattern of use to non-use of cigars or cigarettes and quantile regression to assess differences in median products used per day. Results: In our sample (n = 33,424), NH Black adults were more likely to exclusively smoke cigarillos (1.8%), cigarillos and cigarettes (1.6%), and multiple cigar products with or without cigarettes than other racial/ethnic groups. In adjusted models, NH Black compared to NH White adults had higher odds of exclusive cigarillo use (aOR 5.24, 95% CI 3.74-7.34), exclusive filtered cigar use (aOR 2.40, 95% CI 1.33-4.35), cigarillo and cigarette dual use (aOR 2.19, 95% CI 1.60-3.00), and dual/polyuse of cigar products (aOR 2.03, 95% CI 1.22-3.38) compared to non-current use. However, NH White adults tended to smoke the most cigarettes and filtered cigars per day. Conclusions: While the prevalence of cigar use was generally highest among NH Black adults, intensity of use was often highest among NH White users. These patterns may further explain racial/ethnic disparities in tobacco-related health outcomes.

Tobacco Couponing: A Systematic Review of Exposures and Effects on Tobacco Initiation and Cessation.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco couponing continues to be part of contemporary tobacco marketing in the United States. We performed a systematic review of the evidence of tobacco product coupon receipt and redemption to inform regulation. AIMS AND METHODS: We searched EMBASE OVID and Medline databases for observational (cross-sectional and longitudinal) studies that examined the prevalence of tobacco coupon receipt and coupon redemption across different subpopulations, as well as studies of the association between coupon receipt and redemption with tobacco initiation and cessation at follow-up. We extracted unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios for the associations between coupon exposure (receipt, redemption) and tobacco use outcomes (initiation, cessation) and assessed each studies' potential risk of bias. RESULTS: Twenty-seven studies met the criteria for inclusion. Of 60 observations extracted, 37 measured coupon receipt, nine measured coupon redemption, eight assessed tobacco use initiation, and six assessed cessation. Tobacco product coupon receipt and redemption tended to be more prevalent among younger adults, women, lower education individuals, members of sexual and gender minorities, and more frequent tobacco users. Coupon receipt at baseline was associated with greater initiation. Coupon receipt and redemption at baseline were associated with lower cessation at follow-up among tobacco users. Results in high-quality studies did not generally differ from all studies. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco product coupon receipt and redemption are often more prevalent among price-sensitive subpopulations. Most concerning, our results suggest coupon receipt may be associated with higher tobacco initiation and lower tobacco cessation. Couponing thereby increases the toll of tobacco use and could prove to be a viable public health policy intervention point. IMPLICATIONS: A systematic review was conducted of the scientific literature about the receipt, redemption, and effects on tobacco initiation and cessation of tobacco product couponing. This review found that tobacco coupons are more often received by price-sensitive persons and these coupons serve to increase tobacco initiation and decrease tobacco cessation. Policy efforts to address these consequences may help curb tobacco's harms and address health inequities.

Neighbourhood tobacco retail access and tobacco use susceptibility in young adolescents in urban India.

BACKGROUND: Neighbourhood tobacco retail access may influence adolescent tobacco use. In India, we examined the association between neighbourhood tobacco retail access and cognitive risks for tobacco use during early adolescence. METHODS: In 2019-2020, a population-based sample (n=1759) of adolescents aged 13-15 years was surveyed from 52 neighbourhoods in Mumbai and Kolkata. Neighbourhood tobacco retail access was measured as the frequency of visits to tobacco retailers, mapped tobacco retailer density and perceived tobacco retailer density. We estimated associations between neighbourhood tobacco retail access and cognitive risks for tobacco use (perceived ease of access to tobacco, perceived peer tobacco use and intention to use tobacco). RESULTS: There was high neighbourhood tobacco retail access. Tobacco retailer density was higher in lower income neighbourhoods (p<0.001). Adolescent frequency of tobacco retailer visits was positively associated with cognitive tobacco use risks. Mapped tobacco retailer density was associated with perceived ease of access in Kolkata but not in Mumbai, and it was not associated with perceived peer tobacco use nor intention. Perceived tobacco retailer density was associated with perceived ease of access and perceived peer use, but not with intention. In Kolkata, higher perceived retailer density and frequency of tobacco retailer visits were negatively associated with perceived ease of access. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to reduce neighbourhood tobacco retail access in India may reduce cognitive tobacco use risk factors in young adolescents. The frequency of tobacco retailer visits and perceived tobacco retailer density increased cognitive risks, though there were some exceptions in Kolkata that further research may explain.

The Impact of Menthol Cigarette Flavor in the U.S.: Cigarette and ENDS Transitions by Sociodemographic Group.

INTRODUCTION: A better understanding of how menthol cigarette flavoring and ENDS impact smoking initiation, cessation, and transitions between tobacco products could help elucidate the potential impact of a U.S. menthol ban on combustible tobacco products. METHODS: A multistate transition model was applied to data on 23,232 adults from Waves 1-4 (2013-2017) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (analysis was conducted in 2020-2021). Transition rates among never, noncurrent, nonmenthol versus menthol cigarette, ENDS, and dual everyday/someday use were estimated, as were transition-specific hazard ratios for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and income. RESULTS: Non-Hispanic Blacks who smoked menthol discontinued smoking at a much lower rate than those who smoked nonmenthol (hazard ratio=0.43, 95% CI=0.29, 0.64), but there was no statistically significant difference in the discontinuation rates among non-Hispanic Whites (hazard ratio=0.97, 95% CI=0.80, 1.16) or Hispanics (hazard ratio=0.81, 95% CI=0.56, 1.16). Non-Hispanic Whites who smoked menthol were more likely to become dual users than those who smoked nonmenthol (hazard ratio=1.43, 95% CI=1.14, 1.80). Young adults initiated menthol smoking at a higher rate than older adults (age 18-24 years versus ≥55 years: hazard ratio=2.45, 95% CI=1.44, 4.15) but not nonmenthol smoking (hazard ratio=1.02, 95% CI=0.62, 1.69). There were differences by sex in the impact of menthol flavor on smoking initiation and discontinuation but little difference by education or income. CONCLUSIONS: Sociodemographic differences in product transitions should be accounted for when estimating the potential impact of a menthol ban.

Latent class analysis of use frequencies for multiple tobacco products in US adults.

A persistent challenge is characterizing patterns of tobacco use in terms of product combinations and frequency. Using Wave 4 (2016-17) Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study adult data, we conducted latent class analyses (LCA) of past 30-day frequency of use for 9 tobacco products. One-step LCA with joint multinomial logistic regression models compared sociodemographic factors between users (n = 13,716) and non-users (n = 17,457), and between latent classes of users. We accounted for survey design and weights. Our analyses identified 6 classes: in addition to non-users (C0: 75.7%), we found 5 distinct latent classes of users: daily exclusive cigarette users (C1: 15.5%); occasional cigarette and polytobacco users (C2: 3.8%); frequent e-product and occasional cigarette users (C3: 2.2%); daily smokeless tobacco (SLT) and infrequent cigarette users (C4: 2.0%); and occasional cigar users (C5: 0.8%). Compared to C1: C2 and C3 had higher odds of being male (versus female), younger (especially 18-24 versus 55 years), and having higher education; C2 had higher, while C3 and C4 had lower, odds of being a racial/ethnic minority (versus Non-Hispanic White); C4 and C5 had much higher odds of being male (versus female) and heterosexual (versus sexual minority) and having higher income; and C5 had higher odds of college or more education. We identified three classes of daily or frequent users of a primary product (cigarettes, SLT or e-products) and two classes of occasional users (cigarettes, cigars and polytobacco). Sociodemographic differences in class membership may influence tobacco-related health disparities associated with specific patterns of use.

Sociodemographic Patterns of Exclusive and Dual Use of ENDS and Menthol/Non-Menthol Cigarettes among US Youth (Ages 15-17) Using Two Nationally Representative Surveys (2013-2017).

The use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) among youth in the United States has increased rapidly in the past decade. Simultaneously, while youth cigarette smoking has declined considerably, youth are still more likely to use menthol cigarettes than any other age group. We used nationally representative data on 15-17-year-olds from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study and the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) (2013-2017) to better understand current cigarette (by menthol flavoring) and ENDS use in the US. We calculated weighted population prevalence estimates across years for multiple patterns of current cigarette and ENDS use (i.e., exclusive menthol cigarette, exclusive non-menthol cigarette, exclusive ENDS, dual ENDS and menthol cigarette, and dual ENDS and non-menthol cigarette) by sex, race/ethnicity, parental education level, household income, and homeownership. Overall, both exclusive menthol and non-menthol cigarette use declined from 2013-2017. Exclusive ENDS use increased, particularly among youth who were non-Hispanic White or had a higher socioeconomic status (measured by parental education, household income, and homeownership). Dual use of ENDS with either menthol or non-menthol cigarettes did not change significantly. Monitoring changes in these sociodemographic patterns will help inform future youth tobacco prevention strategies.

A comparison of tobacco product prevalence by different frequency of use thresholds across three US surveys.

BACKGROUND: With the increasing changes in tobacco use patterns, "current use" definition and the survey used may have important implications for monitoring population use trends. METHODS: Using three US surveys (2014/15 TUS-CPS, NHIS and PATH), we compared the adult (age 18+) prevalence of four product groups (cigarettes, other combustibles, smokeless tobacco, and e-cigarettes) based on three past 30-day frequency of use thresholds: 1+, 10+, and 25+ days. We also examined mutually exclusive single, dual, and polytobacco users as a percentage of total users for each product group. RESULTS: Regardless of threshold or product, the prevalence was higher in PATH followed by NHIS and TUS-CPS, in some cases by large percentages. The differences in cigarette and smokeless tobacco use prevalence in going from the 1+ to 10+ days and to the 25+ days threshold were minimal. Applying different frequency thresholds had the largest impact on other combustibles prevalence, with a 60% reduction with the 10+ days threshold and a 80% reduction with the 25+ days threshold, compared to the 1+ days threshold, followed by e-cigarettes with 40 and 60% reductions, respectively. The proportion of dual and polytobacco users decreased considerably when using the 10+ vs. the 1+ days threshold and polytobacco use was almost non-existent with the 25+ days threshold. CONCLUSION: The estimated prevalence of each tobacco product use depends largely on the survey and frequency of use threshold adopted. The choice of survey and frequency threshold merits serious consideration when monitoring patterns of tobacco use.

An Expert Elicitation on the Effects of a Ban on Menthol Cigarettes and Cigars in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: The US Food and Drug Administration announced its intention to ban menthol in cigarettes. However, information is needed on how a federal ban would affect population health. AIMS AND METHODS: We conducted an expert elicitation to gauge the impact of a menthol cigarette and cigar ban in the United States. We developed and pilot tested a questionnaire that focused on tobacco use transitions of current smokers (age 18-24 menthol, age 35-54 menthol, and age 35-54 nonmenthol) and potential menthol smokers (age 12-24). Using a structured expert elicitation, we estimated mean net transitions under a ban from cigarette use to combustible tobacco product, smokeless tobacco, novel nicotine delivery product (NNDPs, such as e-cigarettes) use, or no tobacco use. RESULTS: Eleven experts provided responses. Of those ages 12-24 who would have initiated menthol cigarette use in the absence of a ban, the experts estimated that 41% would still initiate combustible products under a ban, while 18% would initiate with NNDPs and 39% would not initiate regular tobacco use. Combustible use by menthol smokers ages 35-54 was expected to decline by 20% postban relative to preban rates, half switching to NNDPs and half quitting all tobacco use. Menthol smokers ages 18-24 were expected to reduce combustible use by 30%, with 16% switching to NNDPs. Greater reductions in combustible use were estimated for African Americans across the three age groups. Negligible impacts were expected for current adult nonmenthol smokers. CONCLUSIONS: According to expert opinion, a menthol ban is expected to substantially reduce smoking initiation and combustible tobacco product use among current menthol smokers. IMPLICATIONS: The US Food and Drug Administration recently announced its intention to ban menthol in cigarettes, but information on the potential impact on smoking and other nicotine product use is limited. We conducted an expert elicitation to gauge the impact of a menthol cigarette and cigar ban in the United States. A panel of experts estimated that menthol smokers ages 35-54 would reduce combustible tobacco use by 20%, with half switching to e-cigarettes and half quitting all nicotine use. Larger reductions were expected at younger ages, and menthol smoking initiation was reduced by 59% with 18% instead using e-cigarettes. African Americans were expected to have greater reductions in combustible tobacco use than the rest of the population.

The Longitudinal Association Between Exposure to Violence and Patterns of Health Risk Behaviors Among African American Youth.

PURPOSE: We investigate whether exposure to violence (ETV) during adolescence and emerging adulthood predicts engagement in chronic disease-related health risk behaviors years later among African Americans. DESIGN: A longitudinal study following youth from mid-adolescence (mean age = 14.8 years) to young adulthood (mean age = 32.0 years). SETTING: Flint, Michigan. SAMPLE: Four hundred forty-two African American (96.2%) and mixed African American and White (3.8%) participants. MEASURES: Outcomes were diet, smoking, drinking, and physical inactivity. Covariates were ETV, sex, mother's educational attainment, and substance use by siblings, peers, and parents. ANALYSIS: Latent profile analysis was conducted to identify distinct patterns of adult health risk behaviors and assess the association of youth ETV and identified patterns. RESULTS: Four latent profiles were identified: high substance use (n = 46; 10.41%), high overall risk (n = 71; 16.06%), low overall risk (n = 140; 31.67%) and inactive (n = 185, 41.86%). Relative to the low overall risk profile, ETV was associated with being in the high overall risk profile (b = 0.37, p = 0.04), but not other profiles. Female gender and higher maternal education were associated with being in the inactive profile compared to the low overall risk profile. Peer alcohol and tobacco use were associated with being in the high substance use profile. CONCLUSION: ETV during adolescence and emerging adulthood increased the risk of engagement in multiple health risk behaviors later in life.

Sociodemographic Patterns of Exclusive, Dual, and Polytobacco Use Among U.S. High School Students: A Comparison of Three Nationally Representative Surveys.

PURPOSE: This study examines sociodemographic patterns of exclusive/dual/polytobacco use among U.S. high school students using multiple national surveys. METHODS: Using three national youth surveys (Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health [PATH] Wave 4 [2016-2017], 2017 Youth Risk Behavior Survey, and 2017 National Youth Tobacco Survey), we classified tobacco products into four groups: (1) electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), (2) conventional cigarettes (CCs), (3) other combustible tobacco products, and (4) smokeless tobacco products. We created 16 categories of non/exclusive/dual/polytobacco use within the past 30 days using the four product groups and calculated weighted population prevalence by sex and race/ethnicity (all surveys) and parental education and income (PATH), based on variable availability. RESULTS: The results from 9,331, 12,407, and 9,699 high school students in PATH, Youth Risk Behavior Survey, and National Youth Tobacco Survey, respectively, largely agreed and pointed to similar conclusions. ENDS was the most prevalent exclusive use product (3.8%-5.2% across surveys), with CCs falling to second or third (1.2%-2.0% across surveys). By sex, exclusive, dual, and poly smokeless tobacco product use were more common for males, whereas exclusive CC use was more common for females. By race/ethnicity, non-Hispanic Whites had a higher prevalence of exclusive ENDS use and ENDS/CC dual use than non-Hispanic Blacks. As income and parental education levels increased from low to high, the prevalence of exclusive CC use decreased, whereas the prevalence of exclusive ENDS use increased. CONCLUSION: Understanding sociodemographic patterns of tobacco use can help identify groups who may be at greater risk for tobacco-related health outcomes.

Exclusive, Dual, and Polytobacco Use Among US Adults by Sociodemographic Factors: Results From 3 Nationally Representative Surveys.

PURPOSE: To provide tobacco product use patterns for US adults by sociodemographic group. DESIGN: A secondary analysis of Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (2014-15), National Health Interview Survey (2015), and Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (2015-16). SETTING: United States. SAMPLE: Three nationally representative samples of adults (N = 28,070-155,067). MEASURES: All possible combinations of cigarette, Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS), other combustible product, and smokeless tobacco use, defined as current use every day or some days. ANALYSIS: Weighted population prevalence and proportion among tobacco users of exclusive, dual, and polyuse patterns by sex, race/ethnicity, education, income, and age. RESULTS: Exclusive cigarette use was the most prevalent pattern (10.9-12.8% of US population). Dual and polyuse were less prevalent at the population level (2.6-5.2% and 0.3-1.3%, respectively) but represented 16.7-25.5% of product use among tobacco users. Cigarette plus ENDS use was similar by sex, but men were more likely to be dual users of cigarettes plus other combustibles or smokeless tobacco. Among race/ethnic subgroups, non-Hispanic (NH) Whites were most likely to use cigarettes plus ENDS, while NH Blacks were most likely to use cigarettes plus other combustibles. Dual and polyuse were generally less common among adults with higher education, income, and age. CONCLUSION: Differences in product use patterns by sociodemographic group likely represent different risk profiles with important implications for resulting health disparities.

Transitions between cigarette, ENDS and dual use in adults in the PATH study (waves 1-4): multistate transition modelling accounting for complex survey design.

INTRODUCTION: Even prior to 2018, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) began to dramatically change the landscape of tobacco products and product use patterns in the USA. METHODS: Using a Markov multistate transition model accounting for complex survey design, transition rates between never, non-current, cigarette, ENDS and dual use states were estimated for 23 253 adult participants in waves 1-4 (approximately 2013-2017) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study. We made short-term transition projections and estimated HRs for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education and income. RESULTS: Cigarette use was persistent among adults, with 89.7% (95% CI 89.1% to 90.3%) of exclusive cigarette users and 86.1% (95% CI 84.4% to 87.9%) of dual users remaining cigarette users (either exclusive or dual) after one wave. In contrast, ENDS use was less persistent, with 72.1% (95% CI 69.6% to 74.6%) of exclusive ENDS users and 50.5% (95% CI 47.8% to 53.3%) of dual users remaining ENDS users (with or without cigarettes) after one wave. Exclusive ENDS users were more likely to start cigarette use after one wave than either never users (HR 25.2; 95% CI 20.9 to 30.5) or non-current users (HR 5.0; 95% CI 4.3 to 5.8). Dual users of ENDS and cigarettes were more likely to stop using cigarettes than exclusive cigarette users (HR 1.9; 95% CI 1.6 to 2.3). Transition rates varied among sociodemographic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Multistate transition models are an effective tool for uncovering and characterising longitudinal patterns and determinants of tobacco use from complex survey data. ENDS use among US adults was less persistent than cigarette use prior to 2018.