Adjunctive colposcopy technologies for assessing suspected cervical abnormalities: systematic reviews and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Dynamic Spectral Imaging System (DySIS)map (DySIS Medical Ltd, Edinburgh, UK) and ZedScan (Zilico Limited, Manchester, UK) can be used adjunctively with conventional colposcopy, which may improve the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer. OBJECTIVES: To systematically review the evidence on the diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness and implementation of DySISmap and ZedScan as adjuncts to standard colposcopy, and to develop a cost-effectiveness model. METHODS: Four parallel systematic reviews were performed on diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness issues, implementation and economic analyses. In January 2017 we searched databases (including MEDLINE and EMBASE) for studies in which DySISmap or ZedScan was used adjunctively with standard colposcopy to detect CIN or cancer in women referred to colposcopy. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS)-2 tool. Summary estimates of diagnostic accuracy were calculated using bivariate and other regression models when appropriate. Other outcomes were synthesised narratively. A patient-level state-transition model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of DySISmap and ZedScan under either human papillomavirus (HPV) triage or the HPV primary screening algorithm. The model included two types of clinics ['see and treat' and 'watchful waiting' (i.e. treat later after confirmatory biopsy)], as well as the reason for referral (low-grade or high-grade cytological smear). Sensitivity and scenario analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: Eleven studies were included in the diagnostic review (nine of DySISmap and two of ZedScan), three were included in the clinical effectiveness review (two of DySISmap and one of ZedScan) and five were included in the implementation review (four of DySISmap and one of ZedScan). Adjunctive DySISmap use was found to have a higher sensitivity for detecting CIN grade 2+ (CIN 2+) lesions [81.25%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 72.2% to 87.9%] than standard colposcopy alone (57.91%, 95% CI 47.2% to 67.9%), but with a lower specificity (70.40%, 95% CI 59.4% to 79.5%) than colposcopy (87.41%, 95% CI 81.7% to 91.5%). (Confidential information has been removed.) The base-case cost-effectiveness results showed that adjunctive DySISmap routinely dominated standard colposcopy (it was less costly and more effective). The only exception was for high-grade referrals in a watchful-waiting clinic setting. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for ZedScan varied between £272 and £4922 per quality-adjusted life-year. ZedScan also dominated colposcopy alone for high-grade referrals in see-and-treat clinics. These findings appeared to be robust to a wide range of sensitivity and scenario analyses. LIMITATIONS: All but one study was rated as being at a high risk of bias. There was no evidence directly comparing ZedScan with standard colposcopy. No studies directly compared DySIS and ZedScan. CONCLUSIONS: The use of adjunctive DySIS increases the sensitivity for detecting CIN 2+, so it increases the number of high-grade CIN cases that are detected. However, it also reduces specificity, so that more women with no or low-grade CIN will be incorrectly judged as possibly having high-grade CIN. The evidence for ZedScan was limited, but it appears to increase sensitivity and decrease specificity compared with colposcopy alone. The cost-effectiveness of both adjunctive technologies compared with standard colposcopy, under both the HPV triage and primary screening algorithms, appears to be favourable when compared with the conventional thresholds used to determine value in the NHS. FUTURE WORK: More diagnostic accuracy studies of ZedScan are needed, as are studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy for women referred to colposcopy as part of the HPV primary screening programme. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017054515. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Certolizumab pegol and secukinumab for treating active psoriatic arthritis following inadequate response to disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Several biologic therapies are approved by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) for psoriatic arthritis (PsA) patients who have had an inadequate response to two or more synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). NICE does not specifically recommend switching from one biologic to another, and only ustekinumab (UST; STELARA®, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Horsham, PA, USA) is recommended after anti-tumour necrosis factor failure. Secukinumab (SEC; COSENTYX®, Novartis International AG, Basel, Switzerland) and certolizumab pegol (CZP; CIMZIA®, UCB Pharma, Brussels, Belgium) have not previously been appraised by NICE. OBJECTIVE: To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of CZP and SEC for treating active PsA in adults in whom DMARDs have been inadequately effective. DESIGN: Systematic review and economic model. DATA SOURCES: Fourteen databases (including MEDLINE and EMBASE) were searched for relevant studies from inception to April 2016 for CZP and SEC studies; update searches were run to identify new comparator studies. REVIEW METHODS: Clinical effectiveness data from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were synthesised using Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) methods to investigate the relative efficacy of SEC and CZP compared with comparator therapies. A de novo model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of SEC and CZP compared with the other relevant comparators. The model was specified for three subpopulations, in accordance with the NICE scope (patients who have taken one prior DMARD, patients who have taken two or more prior DMARDs and biologic-experienced patients). The models were further classified according to the level of concomitant psoriasis. RESULTS: Nineteen eligible RCTs were included in the systematic review of short-term efficacy. Most studies were well conducted and were rated as being at low risk of bias. Trials of SEC and CZP demonstrated clinically important efficacy in all key clinical outcomes. At 3 months, patients taking 150 mg of SEC [relative risk (RR) 6.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.55 to 15.43] or CZP (RR 3.29, 95% CI 1.94 to 5.56) were more likely to be responders than patients taking placebo. The NMA results for the biologic-naive subpopulations indicated that the effectiveness of SEC and CZP relative to other biologics and each other was uncertain. Limited data were available for the biologic-experienced subpopulation. Longer-term evidence suggested that these newer biologics reduced disease progression, with the benefits being similar to those seen for older biologics. The de novo model generated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for three subpopulations and three psoriasis subgroups. In subpopulation 1 (biologic-naive patients who had taken one prior DMARD), CZP was the optimal treatment in the moderate-severe psoriasis subgroup and 150 mg of SEC was optimal in the subgroups of patients with mild-moderate psoriasis or no concomitant psoriasis. In subpopulation 2 (biologic-naive patients who had taken two or more prior DMARDs), etanercept (ETN; ENBREL®, Pfizer Inc., New York City, NY, USA) is likely to be the optimal treatment in all subgroups. The ICERs for SEC and CZP versus best supportive care are in the region of £20,000-30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). In subpopulation 3 (biologic-experienced patients or patients in whom biologics are contraindicated), UST is likely to be the optimal treatment (ICERs are in the region of £21,000-27,000 per QALY). The optimal treatment in subpopulation 2 was sensitive to the choice of evidence synthesis model. In subpopulations 2 and 3, results were sensitive to the algorithm for Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index costs. The optimal treatment is not sensitive to the use of biosimilar prices for ETN and infliximab (REMICADE®, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Kenilworth, NJ, USA). CONCLUSIONS: SEC and CZP may be an effective use of NHS resources, depending on the subpopulation and subgroup of psoriasis severity. There are a number of limitations to this assessment, driven mainly by data availability. FUTURE WORK: Trials are needed to inform effectiveness of biologics in biologic-experienced populations. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016033357. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

A systematic review on the clustering and co-occurrence of multiple risk behaviours.

BACKGROUND: Risk behaviours, such as smoking and physical inactivity account for up to two-thirds of all cardiovascular deaths, and are associated with substantial increased mortality in many conditions including cancer and diabetes. As risk behaviours are thought to co-occur in individuals we conducted a systematic review of studies addressing clustering or co-occurrence of risk behaviours and their predictors. As the main aim of the review was to inform public health policy in England we limited inclusion to studies conducted in the UK. METHODS: Key databases were searched from 1990 to 2016. We included UK based cross-sectional and longitudinal studies that investigated risk behaviours such as smoking, physical inactivity, unhealthy diet. High heterogeneity precluded meta-analyses. RESULTS: Thirty-seven studies were included in the review (32 cross-sectional and five longitudinal). Most studies investigated unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, alcohol misuse, and smoking. In general adult populations, there was relatively strong evidence of clustering between alcohol misuse and smoking; and unhealthy diet and smoking. For young adults, there was evidence of clustering between sexual risk behaviour and smoking, sexual risk behaviour and illicit drug use, and sexual risk behaviour and alcohol misuse. The strongest associations with co-occurrence and clustering of multiple risk behaviours were occupation (up to 4-fold increased odds in lower SES groups) and education (up to 5-fold increased odds in those with no qualifications). CONCLUSIONS: Among general adult populations, alcohol misuse and smoking was the most commonly identified risk behaviour cluster. Among young adults, there was consistent evidence of clustering found between sexual risk behaviour and substance misuse. Socio-economic status was the strongest predictor of engaging in multiple risk behaviours. This suggests the potential for interventions targeting multiple risk behaviours either sequentially or concurrently particularly where there is evidence of clustering. In addition, there is potential for intervening at the social or environmental level due to the strong association with socio-economic status.

Tumour necrosis factor-α inhibitors for ankylosing spondylitis and non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α inhibitors (anti-TNFs) are typically used when the inflammatory rheumatologic diseases ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-AxSpA) have not responded adequately to conventional therapy. Current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance recommends treatment with adalimumab, etanercept and golimumab in adults with active (severe) AS only if certain criteria are fulfilled but it does not recommend infliximab for AS. Anti-TNFs for patients with nr-AxSpA have not previously been appraised by NICE. OBJECTIVE: To determine the clinical effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness within the NHS of adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, etanercept, golimumab and infliximab, within their licensed indications, for the treatment of severe active AS or severe nr-AxSpA (but with objective signs of inflammation). DESIGN: Systematic review and economic model. DATA SOURCES: Fifteen databases were searched for relevant studies in July 2014. REVIEW METHODS: Clinical effectiveness data from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were synthesised using Bayesian network meta-analysis methods. Results from other studies were summarised narratively. Only full economic evaluations that compared two or more options and considered both costs and consequences were included in the systematic review of cost-effectiveness studies. The differences in the approaches and assumptions used across the studies, and also those in the manufacturer's submissions, were examined in order to explain any discrepancies in the findings and to identify key areas of uncertainty. A de novo decision model was developed with a generalised framework for evidence synthesis that pooled change in disease activity (BASDAI and BASDAI 50) and simultaneously synthesised information on function (BASFI) to determine the long-term quality-adjusted life-year and cost burden of the disease in the economic model. The decision model was developed in accordance with the NICE reference case. The model has a lifetime horizon (60 years) and considers costs from the perspective of the NHS and personal social services. Health effects were expressed in terms of quality-adjusted life-years. RESULTS: In total, 28 eligible RCTs were identified and 26 were placebo controlled (mostly up to 12 weeks); 17 extended into open-label active treatment-only phases. Most RCTs were judged to have a low risk of bias overall. In both AS and nr-AxSpA populations, anti-TNFs produced clinically important benefits to patients in terms of improving function and reducing disease activity; for AS, the relative risks for ASAS 40 ranged from 2.53 to 3.42. The efficacy estimates were consistently slightly smaller for nr-AxSpA than for AS. Statistical (and clinical) heterogeneity was more apparent in the nr-AxSpA analyses than in the AS analyses; both the reliability of the nr-AxSpA meta-analysis results and their true relevance to patients seen in clinical practice are questionable. In AS, anti-TNFs are approximately equally effective. Effectiveness appears to be maintained over time, with around 50% of patients still responding at 2 years. Evidence for an effect of anti-TNFs delaying disease progression was limited; results from ongoing long-term studies should help to clarify this issue. Sequential treatment with anti-TNFs can be worthwhile but the drug survival response rates and benefits are reduced with second and third anti-TNFs. The de novo model, which addressed many of the issues of earlier evaluations, generated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from £19,240 to £66,529 depending on anti-TNF and modelling assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: In both AS and nr-AxSpA populations anti-TNFs are clinically effective, although more so in AS than in nr-AxSpA. Anti-TNFs may be an effective use of NHS resources depending on which assumptions are considered appropriate. FUTURE WORK RECOMMENDATIONS: Randomised trials are needed to identify the nr-AxSpA population who will benefit the most from anti-TNFs. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014010182. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Ipilimumab for Previously Untreated Unresectable Malignant Melanoma: A Critique of the Evidence.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of ipilimumab (Bristol-Myers Squibb Pharmaceuticals Limited) to submit clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence for previously untreated advanced (unresectable or metastatic) melanoma as part of the Institute's Single Technology Appraisal process. The Centre for Reviews and Dissemination and Centre for Health Economics at the University of York were commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). This article presents a summary of the manufacturer's submission of ipilimumab, the ERG review and the resulting NICE guidance TA319, issued in July 2014. Ipilimumab at a recommended dose of 3 mg/kg monotherapy was previously granted marketing authorisation by the European Medicines Agency in adult patients who had received prior therapy and was recommended by NICE in guidance TA268. In October 2013, the EMA approved the extension of this indication to previously untreated advanced melanoma patients. NICE decisions are bound by the marketing authorisation; therefore, the decision problem faced by the NICE Appraisal Committee was whether ipilimumab at a recommended dose of 3 mg/kg monotherapy was effective and cost effective compared with first-line standard of care involving dacarbazine (DTIC) and vemurafenib (for BRAF V600 mutation-positive patients). The CA184-024 trial was the primary source of clinical evidence for ipilimumab. However, this was based on a dose of 10 mg/kg with concomitant DTIC. The results over a 5-year period indicated that ipilimumab 10 mg/kg plus DTIC demonstrated a significant increase in median overall survival (OS) of 2.1 months compared with DTIC plus placebo (11.2 vs. 9.1 months). The BRIM-3 trial, which was an open-label randomised controlled trial (RCT) in BRAF V600 mutation-positive patients, was the primary source of evidence for an indirect comparison with vemurafenib. The results showed that vemurafenib increased median OS by 3.6 months compared with DTIC (13.2 vs. 9.6 months). The economic evaluation compared the costs and outcomes of ipilimumab by assuming that the 3 mg/kg dosing regimen was clinically equivalent in efficacy to an ipilimumab 10 mg/kg dosing regimen plus DTIC and by using a treatment sequencing approach that incorporated second-line active therapy and third-line best supportive care (BSC). In the first appraisal meeting, the committee recommended ipilimumab only in the context of research as part of a clinical study. This was primarily based on the lack of robust evidence to support the assumption of clinical equivalence between dosages and the absence of evidence available to inform the sequential use of treatments. Following the consultation, the manufacturer submitted additional analyses and evidence to support the cost effectiveness of ipilimumab at first line. The manufacturer's response was based on concerns relating to uncertainty surrounding the relative efficacy of ipilimumab 3 mg/kg monotherapy compared with DTIC and vemurafenib, comparability of the patient populations at first and second line, and the effects of concomitant DTIC. These additional analyses indicated that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £ 47,900 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for ipilimumab compared with DTIC and £ 28,600 per QALY gained for ipilimumab compared with vemurafenib. Following consideration of the additional evidence and the responses from a large number of consultees and commentators, the committee recommended ipilimumab as an option for adults with previously untreated advanced melanoma.

Behaviour change interventions to promote prescribing of generic drugs: a rapid evidence synthesis and systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To summarise evidence on the effectiveness of behaviour change interventions to encourage prescribing of generic forms of prescription drugs where clinically appropriate in the UK National Health Service (NHS) and similar settings. DESIGN: Systematic review. SEARCH STRATEGY: We conducted a rapid evidence synthesis in two stages: First, we searched databases, such as the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), for systematic reviews of interventions that reported outcomes related to utilisation of generic drugs. In the second stage, we searched several databases including MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify primary studies of any interventions not covered by systematic reviews. DATA EXTRACTION AND QUALITY ASSESSMENT: Data were extracted into a standardised data extraction form. Standardised quality assessment tools were used to assess study quality. Two reviewers were involved in data extraction and quality assessment. RESULTS: 10 reviews were included for the initial evidence synthesis, but most were of limited usefulness to our focused review question. One review evaluated the effect of prescribing policies using financial incentives and showed an increase in generic prescribing. Thirteen primary studies of other interventions were included for the rapid review. Two studies showed an increase in percentage of overall generic prescribing with an educational intervention; two studies showed an improvement in generic prescribing rates when physicians collaborated with pharmacists, though in one study this was not statistically significant; two US studies showed improvements in generic prescribing with electronic prescribing. Five out of seven studies showed positive results with multifaceted interventions. CONCLUSIONS: The existing evidence remains insufficient to determine which behaviour change intervention or combination of interventions is most effective due to methodological weaknesses and conflicting results. Based on the evidence, financial incentives with educational intervention and audit/feedback look promising but decision-makers should take into account the practicality and costs of the interventions before implementation.