Multi-trait and multi-ancestry genetic analysis of comorbid lung diseases and traits improves genetic discovery and polygenic risk prediction.

While respiratory diseases such as COPD and asthma share many risk factors, most studies investigate them in insolation and in predominantly European ancestry populations. Here, we conducted the most powerful multi-trait and -ancestry genetic analysis of respiratory diseases and auxiliary traits to date. Our approach improves the power of genetic discovery across traits and ancestries, identifying 44 novel loci associated with lung function in individuals of East Asian ancestry. Using these results, we developed PRSxtra (cross TRait and Ancestry), a multi-trait and -ancestry polygenic risk score approach that leverages shared components of heritable risk via pleiotropic effects. PRSxtra significantly improved the prediction of asthma, COPD, and lung cancer compared to trait- and ancestry-matched PRS in a multi-ancestry cohort from the All of Us Research Program, especially in diverse populations. PRSxtra identified individuals in the top decile with over four-fold odds of asthma and COPD compared to the first decile. Our results present a new framework for multi-trait and -ancestry studies of respiratory diseases to improve genetic discovery and polygenic prediction.

Impact of sex, serostatus, and smoking on risk for rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease subtypes.

OBJECTIVES: RA-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) includes multiple subtypes with varying histopathology, prognosis, and potential treatments. Limited research has investigated risk factors for different RA-ILD subtypes. Therefore, we examined demographic, serologic, and lifestyle associations with RA-ILD subtypes. METHODS: We systematically identified RA-ILD cases and RA-noILD controls in the Brigham RA Sequential Study and Mass General Brigham Biobank RA cohort. We determined RA-ILD subtype (usual interstitial pneumonia [UIP], nonspecific interstitial pneumonia [NSIP], and other/indeterminate) through chest high-resolution computed tomography imaging pattern. We investigated associations between demographic, lifestyle, and serologic factors and major RA-ILD subtypes using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 3328 RA patients, we identified 208 RA-ILD cases and 547 RA-noILD controls. RA-UIP was associated with older age (OR 1.03 per year, 95%CI 1.01 to 1.05), male sex (OR 2.15, 95%CI 1.33 to 3.48), and seropositivity (OR 2.08 95%CI 1.24 to 3.48) while RA-NSIP was significantly associated only with seropositive status (OR 3.21, 95%CI 1.36 to 7.56). Non-fibrotic ILDs were significantly associated with smoking (OR 2.81, 95%CI 1.52 to 5.21). Having three RA-ILD risk factors (male, seropositive, smoking) had an OR of 6.89 (96%CI 2.41 to 19.7) for RA-UIP compared to having no RA-ILD risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Older age, seropositivity, and male sex were strongly associated with RA-UIP while RA-related autoantibodies were associated with RA-NSIP. These findings suggest RA-ILD sex differences may be driven by RA-UIP and emphasizes the importance of further studies to clarify RA-ILD heterogeneity and optimize screening and treatment approaches.

A protein risk score for all-cause and respiratory-specific mortality in non-Hispanic white and African American individuals who smoke.

Protein biomarkers are associated with mortality in cardiovascular disease, but their effect on predicting respiratory and all-cause mortality is not clear. We tested whether a protein risk score (protRS) can improve prediction of all-cause mortality over clinical risk factors in smokers. We utilized smoking-enriched (COPDGene, LSC, SPIROMICS) and general population-based (MESA) cohorts with SomaScan proteomic and mortality data. We split COPDGene into training and testing sets (50:50) and developed a protRS based on respiratory mortality effect size and parsimony. We tested multivariable associations of the protRS with all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality, and performed meta-analysis, area-under-the-curve (AUC), and network analyses. We included 2232 participants. In COPDGene, a penalized regression-based protRS was most highly associated with respiratory mortality (OR 9.2) and parsimonious (15 proteins). This protRS was associated with all-cause mortality (random effects HR 1.79 [95% CI 1.31-2.43]). Adding the protRS to clinical covariates improved all-cause mortality prediction in COPDGene (AUC 0.87 vs 0.82) and SPIROMICS (0.74 vs 0.6), but not in LSC and MESA. Protein-protein interaction network analyses implicate cytokine signaling, innate immune responses, and extracellular matrix turnover. A blood-based protein risk score predicts all-cause and respiratory mortality, identifies potential drivers of mortality, and demonstrates heterogeneity in effects amongst cohorts.

Rheumatoid arthritis and changes on spirometry by smoking status in two prospective longitudinal cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: To compare longitudinal changes in spirometric measures between patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and non-RA comparators. METHODS: We analysed longitudinal data from two prospective cohorts: the UK Biobank and COPDGene. Spirometry was conducted at baseline and a second visit after 5-7 years. RA was identified based on self-report and disease-modifying antirheumatic drug use; non-RA comparators reported neither. The primary outcomes were annual changes in the per cent-predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1%) and per cent predicted forced vital capacity (FVC%). Statistical comparisons were performed using multivariable linear regression. The analysis was stratified based on baseline smoking status and the presence of obstructive pattern (FEV1/FVC <0.7). RESULTS: Among participants who underwent baseline and follow-up spirometry, we identified 233 patients with RA and 37 735 non-RA comparators. Among never-smoking participants without an obstructive pattern, RA was significantly associated with more FEV1% decline (ß=-0.49, p=0.04). However, in ever smokers with ≥10 pack-years, those with RA exhibited significantly less FEV1% decline than non-RA comparators (ß=0.50, p=0.02). This difference was more pronounced among those with an obstructive pattern at baseline (ß=1.12, p=0.01). Results were similar for FEV1/FVC decline. No difference was observed in the annual FVC% change in RA versus non-RA. CONCLUSIONS: Smokers with RA, especially those with baseline obstructive spirometric patterns, experienced lower FEV1% and FEV1/FVC decline than non-RA comparators. Conversely, never smokers with RA had more FEV1% decline than non-RA comparators. Future studies should investigate potential treatments and the pathogenesis of obstructive lung diseases in smokers with RA.

Prevalence and mortality associations of interstitial lung abnormalities in rheumatoid arthritis within a multicentre prospective cohort of smokers.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence and mortality impact of interstitial lung abnormalities (ILAs) in RA and non-RA comparators. METHODS: We analysed associations between ILAs, RA, and mortality in COPDGene, a multicentre prospective cohort study of current and past smokers, excluding known interstitial lung disease (ILD) or bronchiectasis. All participants had research chest high-resolution CT (HRCT) reviewed by a sequential reading method to classify ILA as present, indeterminate or absent. RA cases were identified by self-report RA and DMARD use; non-RA comparators had neither an RA diagnosis nor used DMARDs. We examined the association and mortality risk of RA and ILA using multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression. RESULTS: We identified 83 RA cases and 8725 non-RA comparators with HRCT performed for research purposes. ILA prevalence was 16.9% in RA cases and 5.0% in non-RA comparators. After adjusting for potential confounders, including genetics, current/past smoking and other lifestyle factors, ILAs were more common among those with RA compared with non-RA [odds ratio 4.76 (95% CI 2.54, 8.92)]. RA with ILAs or indeterminate for ILAs was associated with higher all-cause mortality compared with non-RA without ILAs [hazard ratio (HR) 3.16 (95% CI 2.11, 4.74)] and RA cases without ILA [HR 3.02 (95% CI 1.36, 6.75)]. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of smokers, RA was associated with ILAs and this persisted after adjustment for current/past smoking and genetic/lifestyle risk factors. RA with ILAs in smokers had a 3-fold increased all-cause mortality, emphasizing the importance of further screening and treatment strategies for preclinical ILD in RA.

A Polygenic Risk Score for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis and Interstitial Lung Abnormalities.

Rationale: In addition to rare genetic variants and the MUC5B locus, common genetic variants contribute to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) risk. The predictive power of common variants outside the MUC5B locus for IPF and interstitial lung abnormalities (ILAs) is unknown. Objectives: We tested the predictive value of IPF polygenic risk scores (PRSs) with and without the MUC5B region on IPF, ILA, and ILA progression. Methods: We developed PRSs that included (PRS-M5B) and excluded (PRS-NO-M5B) the MUC5B region (500-kb window around rs35705950-T) using an IPF genome-wide association study. We assessed PRS associations with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) metrics for IPF, ILA, and ILA progression. Measurements and Main Results: We included 14,650 participants (1,970 IPF; 1,068 ILA) from six multi-ancestry population-based and case-control cohorts. In cases excluded from genome-wide association study, the PRS-M5B (odds ratio [OR] per SD of the score, 3.1; P = 7.1 × 10-95) and PRS-NO-M5B (OR per SD, 2.8; P = 2.5 × 10-87) were associated with IPF. Participants in the top PRS-NO-M5B quintile had ∼sevenfold odds for IPF compared with those in the first quintile. A clinical model predicted IPF (AUC, 0.61); rs35705950-T and PRS-NO-M5B demonstrated higher AUCs (0.73 and 0.7, respectively), and adding both genetic predictors to a clinical model yielded the highest performance (AUC, 0.81). The PRS-NO-M5B was associated with ILA (OR, 1.25) and ILA progression (OR, 1.16) in European ancestry participants. Conclusions: A common genetic variant risk score complements the MUC5B variant to identify individuals at high risk of interstitial lung abnormalities and pulmonary fibrosis.

Multi-ancestry genome-wide association analyses improve resolution of genes and pathways influencing lung function and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease risk.

Lung-function impairment underlies chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and predicts mortality. In the largest multi-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of lung function to date, comprising 580,869 participants, we identified 1,020 independent association signals implicating 559 genes supported by ≥2 criteria from a systematic variant-to-gene mapping framework. These genes were enriched in 29 pathways. Individual variants showed heterogeneity across ancestries, age and smoking groups, and collectively as a genetic risk score showed strong association with COPD across ancestry groups. We undertook phenome-wide association studies for selected associated variants as well as trait and pathway-specific genetic risk scores to infer possible consequences of intervening in pathways underlying lung function. We highlight new putative causal variants, genes, proteins and pathways, including those targeted by existing drugs. These findings bring us closer to understanding the mechanisms underlying lung function and COPD, and should inform functional genomics experiments and potentially future COPD therapies.

Clinical Features of Genetic Resilience in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Introduction: In the personalized risk quantification of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), genome-wide association studies and polygenic risk scores (PRS) complement traditional risk factors, such as age and cigarette smoking. However, despite being at considerable levels of risk, some individuals do not develop COPD. Research on COPD resilience remains largely unexplored. Methods: We applied the previously published COPD PRS to whole genome sequencing data from non-Hispanic white and African American individuals in the COPDGene study. We defined genetic resilience as individuals unaffected by COPD with a polygenic risk score above the 90 th percentile. We defined risk-matched case individuals as those with COPD (i.e., FEV 1 /FVC < 0.70) and a PRS above the 90 th percentile. We defined low risk individuals without COPD (i.e., FEV 1 /FVC > 0.70) as a polygenic risk score below the 10 th percentile. We compared genetically resilient individuals to risk-matched individuals with COPD and low risk individuals by demographics, lung function, respiratory symptoms, co-morbidities, and chest CT scan measurements. We also performed survival analyses, differential expression analysis, and matching for sensitivity analyses. Results: We identified 211 resilient individuals without COPD, 605 genetic risk-matched individuals with COPD, and 527 low-risk individuals without COPD. Resilient individuals had higher FEV 1 % predicted and lower percent emphysema. In contrast, resilient individuals had higher airway wall thickness compared to low-risk unaffected individuals. While there was no difference in survival between low-risk and resilient individuals, resilient individuals had higher survival compared to risk matched cases. We also identified two genes that were differentially expressed between low-risk unaffected individuals and resilient individuals. Conclusion: Genetically resilient individuals had a reduced burden of COPD disease-related measures compared to risk-matched cases but had subtly increased measures compared to low-risk unaffected individuals. Further genetic studies will be needed to illuminate the underlying pathobiology of our observations.

Quantitative Interstitial Abnormality Progression and Outcomes in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD and Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors and clinical outcomes of quantitative interstitial abnormality progression over time have not been characterized. RESEARCH QUESTIONS: What are the associations of quantitative interstitial abnormality progression with lung function, exercise capacity, and mortality? What are the demographic and genetic risk factors for quantitative interstitial abnormality progression? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Quantitative interstitial abnormality progression between visits 1 and 2 was assessed from 4,635 participants in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) cohort and 1,307 participants in the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS) cohort. We used multivariable linear regression to determine the risk factors for progression and the longitudinal associations between progression and FVC and 6-min walk distance, and Cox regression models for the association with mortality. RESULTS: Age at enrollment, female sex, current smoking status, and the MUC5B minor allele were associated with quantitative interstitial abnormality progression. Each percent annual increase in quantitative interstitial abnormalities was associated with annual declines in FVC (COPDGene: 8.5 mL/y; 95% CI, 4.7-12.4 mL/y; P < .001; PLuSS: 9.5 mL/y; 95% CI, 3.7-15.4 mL/y; P = .001) and 6-min walk distance, and increased mortality (COPDGene: hazard ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.34-2.12; P < .001; PLuSS: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.10-1.49; P = .001). INTERPRETATION: The objective, longitudinal measurement of quantitative interstitial abnormalities may help identify people at greatest risk for adverse events and most likely to benefit from early intervention.

Blood gene expression risk profiles and interstitial lung abnormalities: COPDGene and ECLIPSE cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) are radiologic findings that may progress to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Blood gene expression profiles can predict IPF mortality, but whether these same genes associate with ILA and ILA outcomes is unknown. This study evaluated if a previously described blood gene expression profile associated with IPF mortality is associated with ILA and all-cause mortality. METHODS: In COPDGene and ECLIPSE study participants with visual scoring of ILA and gene expression data, we evaluated the association of a previously described IPF mortality score with ILA and mortality. We also trained a new ILA score, derived using genes from the IPF score, in a subset of COPDGene. We tested the association with ILA and mortality on the remainder of COPDGene and ECLIPSE. RESULTS: In 1469 COPDGene (training n = 734; testing n = 735) and 571 ECLIPSE participants, the IPF score was not associated with ILA or mortality. However, an ILA score derived from IPF score genes was associated with ILA (meta-analysis of test datasets OR 1.4 [95% CI: 1.2-1.6]) and mortality (HR 1.25 [95% CI: 1.12-1.41]). Six of the 11 genes in the ILA score had discordant directions of effects compared to the IPF score. The ILA score partially mediated the effects of age on mortality (11.8% proportion mediated). CONCLUSIONS: An ILA gene expression score, derived from IPF mortality-associated genes, identified genes with concordant and discordant effects on IPF mortality and ILA. These results suggest shared, and unique biologic processes, amongst those with ILA, IPF, aging, and death.

Lung tissue shows divergent gene expression between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) are characterized by shared exposures and clinical features, but distinct genetic and pathologic features exist. These features have not been well-studied using large-scale gene expression datasets. We hypothesized that there are divergent gene, pathway, and cellular signatures between COPD and IPF. METHODS: We performed RNA-sequencing on lung tissues from individuals with IPF (n = 231) and COPD (n = 377) compared to control (n = 267), defined as individuals with normal spirometry. We grouped the overlapping differential expression gene sets based on direction of expression and examined the resultant sets for genes of interest, pathway enrichment, and cell composition. Using gene set variation analysis, we validated the overlap group gene sets in independent COPD and IPF data sets. RESULTS: We found 5010 genes differentially expressed between COPD and control, and 11,454 genes differentially expressed between IPF and control (1% false discovery rate). 3846 genes overlapped between IPF and COPD. Several pathways were enriched for genes upregulated in COPD and downregulated in IPF; however, no pathways were enriched for genes downregulated in COPD and upregulated in IPF. There were many myeloid cell genes with increased expression in COPD but decreased in IPF. We found that the genes upregulated in COPD but downregulated in IPF were associated with lower lung function in the independent validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a divergent gene expression signature between COPD and IPF, with increased expression in COPD and decreased in IPF. This signature is associated with worse lung function in both COPD and IPF.

Polygenic transcriptome risk scores for COPD and lung function improve cross-ethnic portability of prediction in the NHLBI TOPMed program.

While polygenic risk scores (PRSs) enable early identification of genetic risk for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), predictive performance is limited when the discovery and target populations are not well matched. Hypothesizing that the biological mechanisms of disease are shared across ancestry groups, we introduce a PrediXcan-derived polygenic transcriptome risk score (PTRS) to improve cross-ethnic portability of risk prediction. We constructed the PTRS using summary statistics from application of PrediXcan on large-scale GWASs of lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s [FEV1] and its ratio to forced vital capacity [FEV1/FVC]) in the UK Biobank. We examined prediction performance and cross-ethnic portability of PTRS through smoking-stratified analyses both on 29,381 multi-ethnic participants from TOPMed population/family-based cohorts and on 11,771 multi-ethnic participants from TOPMed COPD-enriched studies. Analyses were carried out for two dichotomous COPD traits (moderate-to-severe and severe COPD) and two quantitative lung function traits (FEV1 and FEV1/FVC). While the proposed PTRS showed weaker associations with disease than PRS for European ancestry, the PTRS showed stronger association with COPD than PRS for African Americans (e.g., odds ratio [OR] = 1.24 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.43] for PTRS versus 1.10 [0.96-1.26] for PRS among heavy smokers with ≥ 40 pack-years of smoking) for moderate-to-severe COPD. Cross-ethnic portability of the PTRS was significantly higher than the PRS (paired t test p < 2.2 × 10-16 with portability gains ranging from 5% to 28%) for both dichotomous COPD traits and across all smoking strata. Our study demonstrates the value of PTRS for improved cross-ethnic portability compared to PRS in predicting COPD risk.

Associations of the MUC5B promoter variant with timing of interstitial lung disease and rheumatoid arthritis onset.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the associations of the common MUC5B promoter variant with timing of RA-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) and RA onset. METHODS: We identified patients with RA meeting 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria and available genotype information in the Mass General Brigham Biobank, a multihospital biospecimen and clinical data collection research study. We determined RA-ILD presence by reviewing all RA patients who had CT imaging, lung biopsy or autopsy results. We determined the dates of RA and RA-ILD diagnoses by manual records review. We examined the associations of the MUC5B promoter variant (G>T at rs35705950) with RA-ILD, RA-ILD occurring before or within 2 years of RA diagnosis and RA diagnosis at age >55 years. We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for each outcome by MUC5B promoter variant status, adjusting for potential confounders including genetic ancestry and smoking. RESULTS: We identified 1005 RA patients with available genotype data for rs35705950 (mean age 45 years, 79% female, 81% European ancestry). The MUC5B promoter variant was present in 155 (15.4%) and was associated with RA-ILD [multivariable OR 3.34 (95% CI 1.97, 5.60)], RA-ILD before or within 2 years of RA diagnosis [OR 4.01 (95% CI 1.78, 8.80)] and RA onset after age 55 years [OR 1.52 (95% CI 1.08, 2.12)]. CONCLUSIONS: The common MUC5B promoter variant was associated with RA-ILD onset earlier in the RA disease course and older age of RA onset. These findings suggest that the MUC5B promoter variant may impact RA-ILD risk early in the RA disease course, particularly in patients with older-onset RA.

Development of a Blood-based Transcriptional Risk Score for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Rationale: The ability of peripheral blood biomarkers to assess chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk and progression is unknown. Genetics and gene expression may capture important aspects of COPD-related biology that predict disease activity. Objectives: Develop a transcriptional risk score (TRS) for COPD and assess the contribution of the TRS and a polygenic risk score (PRS) for disease susceptibility and progression. Methods: We randomly split 2,569 COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) participants with whole-blood RNA sequencing into training (n = 1,945) and testing (n = 624) samples and used 468 ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points) COPD cases with microarray data for replication. We developed a TRS using penalized regression (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) to model FEV1/FVC and studied the predictive value of TRS for COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 2-4), prospective FEV1 change (ml/yr), and additional COPD-related traits. We adjusted for potential confounders, including age and smoking. We evaluated the predictive performance of the TRS in the context of a previously derived PRS and clinical factors. Measurements and Main Results: The TRS included 147 transcripts and was associated with COPD (odds ratio, 3.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4-4.5; P < 0.001), FEV1 change (ß, -17 ml/yr; 95% CI, -28 to -6.6; P = 0.002), and other COPD-related traits. In ECLIPSE cases, we replicated the association with FEV1 change (ß, -8.2; 95% CI, -15 to -1; P = 0.025) and the majority of other COPD-related traits. Models including PRS, TRS, and clinical factors were more predictive of COPD (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.84) and annualized FEV1 change compared with models with one risk score or clinical factors alone. Conclusions: Blood transcriptomics can improve prediction of COPD and lung function decline when added to a PRS and clinical risk factors.

Association of clonal hematopoiesis with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with age and smoking, but other determinants of the disease are incompletely understood. Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is a common, age-related state in which somatic mutations in clonal blood populations induce aberrant inflammatory responses. Patients with CHIP have an elevated risk for cardiovascular disease, but the association of CHIP with COPD remains unclear. We analyzed whole-genome sequencing and whole-exome sequencing data to detect CHIP in 48 835 patients, of whom 8444 had moderate to very severe COPD, from four separate cohorts with COPD phenotyping and smoking history. We measured emphysema in murine models in which Tet2 was deleted in hematopoietic cells. In the COPDGene cohort, individuals with CHIP had risks of moderate-to-severe, severe, or very severe COPD that were 1.6 (adjusted 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-2.2) and 2.2 (adjusted 95% CI, 1.5-3.2) times greater than those for noncarriers. These findings were consistently observed in three additional cohorts and meta-analyses of all patients. CHIP was also associated with decreased FEV1% predicted in the COPDGene cohort (mean between-group differences, -5.7%; adjusted 95% CI, -8.8% to -2.6%), a finding replicated in additional cohorts. Smoke exposure was associated with a small but significant increased risk of having CHIP (odds ratio, 1.03 per 10 pack-years; 95% CI, 1.01-1.05 per 10 pack-years) in the meta-analysis of all patients. Inactivation of Tet2 in mouse hematopoietic cells exacerbated the development of emphysema and inflammation in models of cigarette smoke exposure. Somatic mutations in blood cells are associated with the development and severity of COPD, independent of age and cumulative smoke exposure.

Interaction of Cigarette Smoking and Polygenic Risk Score on Reduced Lung Function.

Importance: The risk of airflow limitation and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is influenced by combinations of cigarette smoking and genetic susceptibility, yet it remains unclear whether gene-by-smoking interactions are associated with quantitative measures of lung function. Objective: To assess the interaction of cigarette smoking and polygenic risk score in association with reduced lung function. Design, Setting, and Participants: This UK Biobank cohort study included UK citizens of European ancestry aged 40 to 69 years with genetic and spirometry data passing quality control metrics. Data was analyzed from July 2020 to March 2021. Exposures: PRS of combined forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and percent of forced vital capacity exhaled in the first second (FEV1/FVC), self-reported pack-years of smoking, ever- vs never-smoking status, and current- vs former- or never-smoking status. Main Outcomes and Measures: FEV1/FVC was the primary outcome. Models were used to test for interactions with models, including the main effects of PRS, different smoking variables, and their cross-product terms. The association between pack-years of smoking and FEV1/FVC were compared for those in the highest vs lowest decile of estimated genetic risk for low lung function. Results: We included 319 730 individuals, of whom 24 915 (8%) had moderate-to-severe COPD cases, and 44.4% were men. Participants had a mean (SD) age 56.5 of (8.02) years. The PRS and pack-years were significantly associated with lower FEV1/FVC (PRS: ß, -0.03; 95% CI, -0.031 to -0.03; pack-years: ß, -0.0064; 95% CI, -0.0064 to -0.0063) and the interaction term (ß, -0.0028; 95% CI, -0.0029 to -0.0026). A stepwise increment in estimated effect sizes for these interaction terms was observed per 10 pack-years of smoking exposure. The interaction of PRS with 11 to 20, 31 to 40, and more than 50 pack-years categories were ß (interaction) -0.0038 (95% CI, -0.0046 to -0.0031); -0.013 (95% CI, -0.014 to -0.012); and -0.017 (95% CI, -0.019 to -0.016), respectively. There was evidence of significant interaction between PRS with ever- or never- smoking status (ß, interaction; -0.0064; 95% CI, -0.0068 to -0.0060) and current or not-current smoking (ß, interaction; -0.0091; 95% CI, -0.0097 to -0.0084). For any given level of pack-years of smoking exposure, FEV1/FVC was significantly lower for individuals in the tenth decile (ie, highest risk) than the first decile (ie, lowest risk) of genetic risk. For every 20 pack-years of smoking, those in the tenth decile compared with the first decile of genetic risk showed nearly a 2-fold reduction in FEV1/FVC. Conclusions and Relevance: COPD is characterized by diminished lung function, and our analyses suggest there is substantial interaction between genome-wide PRS and smoking exposures. While smoking was associated with decreased lung function across all genetic risk categories, the associations were strongest in individuals with higher estimated genetic risk.

Relationship Between Rheumatoid Arthritis and Pulmonary Function Measures on Spirometry in the UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the independent relationship of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to the type and severity of pulmonary patterns on spirometry compared to the pulmonary patterns in general population controls. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we investigated the association of RA with pulmonary function measures on spirometry among subjects in the UK Biobank who underwent spirometry for research purposes. RA cases were identified based on self-report and current disease-modifying antirheumatic drug/glucocorticoid use. Controls were subjects without RA from the general population. Outcome measures included continuous forced expiratory volume in 1 second percent predicted (FEV1 %) and forced vital capacity percent predicted (FVC%), type of spirometric pattern (restrictive or obstructive), and severity of the restrictive or obstructive pattern. We used multivariable regression to estimate the effects in RA cases compared to the effects in controls, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, and smoking status/pack-years. RESULTS: Among 350,776 analyzed subjects who underwent spirometry (mean age 56.3 years; 55.8% female; 45.5% ever smokers), we identified 2,008 cases of treated RA. In multivariable analyses, RA was associated with lower FEV1 % (ß = -2.93 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) -3.63, -2.24]), FVC% (ß = -2.08 [95% CI -2.72, -1.45]), and FEV1 /FVC (ß = -0.008 [95% CI -0.010, -0.005]) compared to controls. RA was additionally associated with restrictive patterns (odds ratio [OR] 1.36 [95% CI 1.21, 1.52]) and obstructive patterns (OR 1.21 [95% CI 1.07, 1.37]) independent of confounders, and was most strongly associated with severe restrictive and obstructive patterns. CONCLUSION: RA is associated with increased odds of restrictive and obstructive patterns, and this relationship is not explained by confounders, including smoking status. In addition to restrictive lung disease, clinicians should also be aware that airway obstruction may be a pulmonary manifestation of RA.

Relative contributions of family history and a polygenic risk score on COPD and related outcomes: COPDGene and ECLIPSE studies.

INTRODUCTION: Family history is a risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We previously developed a COPD risk score from genome-wide genetic markers (Polygenic Risk Score, PRS). Whether the PRS and family history provide complementary or redundant information for predicting COPD and related outcomes is unknown. METHODS: We assessed the predictive capacity of family history and PRS on COPD and COPD-related outcomes in non-Hispanic white (NHW) and African American (AA) subjects from COPDGene and ECLIPSE studies. We also performed interaction and mediation analyses. RESULTS: In COPDGene, family history and PRS were significantly associated with COPD in a single model (PFamHx <0.0001; PPRS<0.0001). Similar trends were seen in ECLIPSE. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for a model containing family history and PRS was significantly higher than a model with PRS (p=0.00035) in NHWs and a model with family history (p<0.0001) alone in NHWs and AAs. Both family history and PRS were significantly associated with measures of quantitative emphysema and airway thickness. There was a weakly positive interaction between family history and the PRS under the additive, but not multiplicative scale in NHWs (relative excess risk due to interaction=0.48, p=0.04). Mediation analyses found that a significant proportion of the effect of family history on COPD was mediated through PRS in NHWs (16.5%, 95% CI 9.4% to 24.3%), but not AAs. CONCLUSION: Family history and the PRS provide complementary information for predicting COPD and related outcomes. Future studies can address the impact of obtaining both measures in clinical practice.

A linear prognostic score based on the ratio of interleukin-6 to interleukin-10 predicts outcomes in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic tools are required to guide clinical decision-making in COVID-19. METHODS: We studied the relationship between the ratio of interleukin (IL)-6 to IL-10 and clinical outcome in 80 patients hospitalized for COVID-19, and created a simple 5-point linear score predictor of clinical outcome, the Dublin-Boston score. Clinical outcome was analysed as a three-level ordinal variable ("Improved", "Unchanged", or "Declined"). For both IL-6:IL-10 ratio and IL-6 alone, we associated clinical outcome with a) baseline biomarker levels, b) change in biomarker level from day 0 to day 2, c) change in biomarker from day 0 to day 4, and d) slope of biomarker change throughout the study. The associations between ordinal clinical outcome and each of the different predictors were performed with proportional odds logistic regression. Associations were run both "unadjusted" and adjusted for age and sex. Nested cross-validation was used to identify the model for incorporation into the Dublin-Boston score. FINDINGS: The 4-day change in IL-6:IL-10 ratio was chosen to derive the Dublin-Boston score. Each 1 point increase in the score was associated with a 5.6 times increased odds for a more severe outcome (OR 5.62, 95% CI -3.22-9.81, P = 1.2 × 10-9). Both the Dublin-Boston score and the 4-day change in IL-6:IL-10 significantly outperformed IL-6 alone in predicting clinical outcome at day 7. INTERPRETATION: The Dublin-Boston score is easily calculated and can be applied to a spectrum of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. More informed prognosis could help determine when to escalate care, institute or remove mechanical ventilation, or drive considerations for therapies. FUNDING: Funding was received from the Elaine Galwey Research Fellowship, American Thoracic Society, National Institutes of Health and the Parker B Francis Research Opportunity Award.