Early trajectories of virological and immunological biomarkers and clinical outcomes in patients admitted to hospital for COVID-19: an international, prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Serial measurement of virological and immunological biomarkers in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 can give valuable insight into the pathogenic roles of viral replication and immune dysregulation. We aimed to characterise biomarker trajectories and their associations with clinical outcomes. METHODS: In this international, prospective cohort study, patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 and enrolled in the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 platform trial within the Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines programme between Aug 5, 2020 and Sept 30, 2021 were included. Participants were included from 108 sites in Denmark, Greece, Poland, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, Uganda, the UK, and the USA, and randomised to placebo or one of four neutralising monoclonal antibodies: bamlanivimab (Aug 5 to Oct 13, 2020), sotrovimab (Dec 16, 2020, to March 1, 2021), amubarvimab-romlusevimab (Dec 16, 2020, to March 1, 2021), and tixagevimab-cilgavimab (Feb 10 to Sept 30, 2021). This trial included an analysis of 2149 participants with plasma nucleocapsid antigen, anti-nucleocapsid antibody, C-reactive protein (CRP), IL-6, and D-dimer measured at baseline and day 1, day 3, and day 5 of enrolment. Day-90 follow-up status was available for 1790 participants. Biomarker trajectories were evaluated for associations with baseline characteristics, a 7-day pulmonary ordinal outcome, 90-day mortality, and 90-day rate of sustained recovery. FINDINGS: The study included 2149 participants. Participant median age was 57 years (IQR 46-68), 1246 (58·0%) of 2149 participants were male and 903 (42·0%) were female; 1792 (83·4%) had at least one comorbidity, and 1764 (82·1%) were unvaccinated. Mortality to day 90 was 172 (8·0%) of 2149 and 189 (8·8%) participants had sustained recovery. A pattern of less favourable trajectories of low anti-nucleocapsid antibody, high plasma nucleocapsid antigen, and high inflammatory markers over the first 5 days was observed for high-risk baseline clinical characteristics or factors related to SARS-CoV-2 infection. For example, participants with chronic kidney disease demonstrated plasma nucleocapsid antigen 424% higher (95% CI 319-559), CRP 174% higher (150-202), IL-6 173% higher (144-208), D-dimer 149% higher (134-165), and anti-nucleocapsid antibody 39% lower (60-18) to day 5 than those without chronic kidney disease. Participants in the highest quartile for plasma nucleocapsid antigen, CRP, and IL-6 at baseline and day 5 had worse clinical outcomes, including 90-day all-cause mortality (plasma nucleocapsid antigen hazard ratio (HR) 4·50 (95% CI 3·29-6·15), CRP HR 3·37 (2·30-4·94), and IL-6 HR 5·67 (4·12-7·80). This risk persisted for plasma nucleocapsid antigen and CRP after adjustment for baseline biomarker values and other baseline factors. INTERPRETATION: Patients admitted to hospital with less favourable 5-day biomarker trajectories had worse prognosis, suggesting that persistent viral burden might drive inflammation in the pathogenesis of COVID-19, identifying patients that might benefit from escalation of antiviral or anti-inflammatory treatment. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health.

Antiretroviral Initiation at ≥800 CD4+ Cells/mm3 Associated With Lower Human Immunodeficiency Virus Reservoir Size.

BACKGROUND: Identifying factors that determine the frequency of latently infected CD4+ T cells on antiretroviral therapy (ART) may inform strategies for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) cure. We investigated the role of CD4+ count at ART initiation for HIV persistence on ART. METHODS: Among participants of the Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Treatment Study, we enrolled people with HIV (PWH) who initiated ART with CD4+ T-cell counts of 500-599, 600-799, or ≥ 800 cells/mm3. After 36-44 months on ART, the levels of total HIV-DNA, cell-associated unspliced HIV-RNA (CA-US HIV-RNA), and two-long terminal repeat HIV-DNA in CD4+ T cells were quantified and plasma HIV-RNA was measured by single-copy assay. We measured T-cell expression of Human Leucocyte Antigen-DR Isotype (HLA-DR), programmed death-1, and phosphorylated signal transducer and activator of transcription-5 (pSTAT5). Virological and immunological measures were compared across CD4+ strata. RESULTS: We enrolled 146 PWH, 36 in the 500-599, 60 in the 600-799, and 50 in the ≥ 800 CD4 strata. After 36-44 months of ART, total HIV-DNA, plasma HIV-RNA, and HLA-DR expression were significantly lower in PWH with CD4+ T-cell count ≥ 800 cells/mm3 at ART initiation compared with 600-799 or 500-599 cells/mm3. The median level of HIV-DNA after 36-44 months of ART was lower by 75% in participants initiating ART with ≥ 800 vs 500-599 cells/mm3 (median [interquartile range]: 16.3 [7.0-117.6] vs 68.4 [13.7-213.1] copies/million cells, respectively). Higher pSTAT5 expression significantly correlated with lower levels of HIV-DNA and CA-US HIV-RNA. Virological measures were significantly lower in females. CONCLUSIONS: Initiating ART with a CD4+ count ≥ 800 cells/mm3 compared with 600-799 or 500-599 cells/mm3 was associated with achieving a substantially smaller HIV reservoir on ART.

Urine Lipoarabinomannan Testing in Adults With Advanced Human Immunodeficiency Virus in a Trial of Empiric Tuberculosis Therapy.

BACKGROUND: The urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) antigen test is a tuberculosis (TB) diagnostic test with highest sensitivity in individuals with advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Its role in TB diagnostic algorithms for HIV-positive outpatients remains unclear. METHODS: The AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) A5274 trial demonstrated that empiric TB therapy did not improve 24-week survival compared to isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) in TB screen-negative HIV-positive adults initiating antiretroviral therapy with CD4 counts <50 cells/µL. Retrospective LAM testing was performed on stored urine obtained at baseline. We determined the proportion of LAM-positive participants and conducted modified intent-to-treat analysis excluding LAM-positive participants to determine the effect on 24-week survival, TB incidence, and time to TB using Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: A5274 enrolled 850 participants; 53% were male and the median CD4 count was 18 (interquartile range, 9-32) cells/µL. Of the 850, 566 (67%) had LAM testing (283 per arm); 28 (5%) were positive (21 [7%] and 7 [2%] in the empiric and IPT arms, respectively). Of those LAM-positive, 1 participant in each arm died and 5 of 21 and 0 of 7 in empiric and IPT arms, respectively, developed TB. After excluding these 28 cases, there were 19 and 21 deaths in the empiric and IPT arms, respectively (P = .88). TB incidence remained higher (4.6% vs 2%, P = .04) and time to TB remained faster in the empiric arm (P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Among outpatients with advanced HIV who screened negative for TB by clinical symptoms, microscopy, and Xpert testing, LAM testing identified an additional 5% of individuals with TB. Positive LAM results did not change mortality or TB incidence.

Smoking and Accelerated Lung Function Decline in HIV-Positive Individuals: A Secondary Analysis of the START Pulmonary Substudy.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of death and disability globally. Both cigarette smoking and HIV have been identified as independent risk factors for COPD. We used data from the strategic timing of antiretroviral treatment (START) Pulmonary Substudy to quantify the impact of smoking on rate of lung function decline in HIV. METHODS: We included START Pulmonary Substudy participants who contributed at least 2 good quality spirometry measures during the study. Slope of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) was estimated using a repeated-measures model adjusted for the treatment group (immediate vs deferred treatment arm of START), age, sex, race, baseline COPD, and region. RESULTS: Of 1026 START Pulmonary Substudy participants, 915 (89%) were included in this analysis. Median follow-up time was 3.9 years. Smokers and nonsmokers were similar in baseline age (median 36 years), but smokers were more likely to be white, male, and from Europe/Israel/Australia. Smokers had faster average FEV1 decline compared with nonsmokers [-38.3 mL/yr vs -25.1 mL/yr; difference of -13.2 mL/yr (95% confidence interval: -23.6 to -2.7); P = 0.013], were more likely to meet criteria for rapid FEV1 decline [7.2%-11.7% more likely (P = 0.09-P = 0.002), depending on the definition of rapid decline], and had borderline, but not statistically significant, higher incident COPD during follow-up (9.7% vs 5.8%, P = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to nonsmokers, HIV-positive smokers experience faster decline in lung function. These results underscore the need for a better understanding of how to best support smoking cessation among HIV-positive populations.

Performance of frontloading for smear microscopy in the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis: a cross-sectional study at a referral hospital in Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of frontloading and the standard WHO method for diagnosis of pulmonary TB at Mulago Hospital in order to validate the technique in this setting. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study in which 229 adult (≥18 years) TB suspects were consecutively enrolled. Suspects submitted three sputum samples as follows: at initial presentation, one hour after the first sample, and the next morning. The first and next morning samples formed the standard WHO method, while the first and the one hour later samples formed the frontloading method. Sample processing was by the standard N-acetyl L-cystein (NALC)-NaOH method, and fluorescent microscopy was done for both methods, while cultures of the first sample on Lowenstein-Jensen slants acted as a gold standard. The sensitivity, specificity and predictive values for the WHO standard and frontloading methods were compared. RESULTS: The sensitivity of both the frontloading and standard schemes was 91.1% while their specificities were 86.2% and 91.7% respectively. There was excellent agreement between the diagnostic capacity of the two methods (kappa statistic = 0.87, P<0.0001). The positive predictive value for the frontloading scheme was 87.2% and that for the standard approach was 91.9%, while the negative predictive values were 90.4% and 90.9%, respectively. Among the HIV positive patients, frontloading identified 59/79 (74.7%) culture positive samples while the standard approach identified 55/79 (69.6%). In the HIV sero-negative category, on the other hand, front-loading identified 48/110 (43.6%) culture positive samples compared to 45/110 (40.9%) by the standard approach. CONCLUSION: Frontloading based on smear examination of two same-day sputum samples has a similar performance to the current standard method and would not be associated with any significant missed diagnosis. It may therefore be advocated for use in our setting so as to reduce time to completion of diagnosis and patient loss to follow-up.