RESUMO
Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) has been a mainstay in myeloma treatment for over three decades, but patient prognosis post-ASCT varies significantly. In a retrospective study of 5259 patients with multiple myeloma (MM) at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences undergoing ASCT with a median 57-month follow-up, we divided the dataset into training (70%) and validation (30%) subsets. Employing univariable and multivariable Cox analyses, we systematically assessed 29 clinical variables, identifying crucial adverse prognostic factors, such as extended duration between MM diagnosis and ASCT, elevated serum ferritin, and reduced transferrin levels. These factors could enhance existing prognostic models. Additionally, we pinpointed significant poor prognosis markers like high serum calcium and low platelet counts, though they are applicable to a smaller patient population. Utilizing seven easily accessible high-risk variables, we devised a four-stage system (ATM4S) with primary stage borders determined through K-adaptive partitioning. This staging system underwent validation in both the training dataset and an independent cohort of 514 ASCT-treated MM patients from the University of Iowa. We also explored cytogenetic risk factors within this staging system, emphasizing its potential clinical utility for refining prognostic assessments and guiding personalized treatment approaches.
RESUMO
The Second Revision of the International Staging System (R2-ISS) was published in 2022 and has been validated in several cohorts of patients with multiple myeloma (MM). In this study, we investigated a total of 860 patients with MM who received an upfront autologous stem cell transplantation between 2001 and 2021. The median age of the patients was 60 years, with a median overall survival (OS) of 123 months and median progression-free survival (PFS) of 70 months. We collected the variables included in the ISS, R-ISS, and R2-ISS systems as well as additional standard variables. Our analyses demonstrated that all 3 ISS series systems (ISS, R-ISS, and R2-ISS) exhibited robust discrimination in terms of both OS and PFS among our study cohort. The ISS system effectively stratified patients into 3 risk groups, whereas the R-ISS system accurately identified patients at extremely high or low risk. The R2-ISS system further refined risk stratification by dividing patients into 4 more balanced risk groups. Furthermore, we specifically focused on identifying variables that distinguished patients with OS < 3 years and OS > 10 years within the low-risk R2-ISS stages (I and II) and high-risk R2-ISS stages (III and IV). Our findings revealed that age, hemoglobin, and 1p deletion significantly influenced the classification of patients in the low-risk R2-ISS stage. Additionally, serum light chain, platelet count, age, and the presence of the t(14;16) translocation were found to affect high-risk classification.