RESUMO
INTRODUCTION: In early 2020, the Japanese government declared a nationwide state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated the impact of the emergency declaration on endoscopy adherence and conducted a follow-up study of patients with canceled examinations at a tertiary endoscopy facility in Japan in 2020. METHODS: We compared the number of endoscopies performed, and cancelations at the endoscopy unit between 2019 and 2020 and used the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model to estimate the decrease in the number of endoscopies in 2020. We administered a questionnaire to those who had not undergone a scheduled endoscopy. RESULTS: Of 14 146 and 13 338 scheduled examinations, 1233 (8.7%) and 1403 (10.5%) were canceled in 2019 and 2020, respectively. During both years, age < 50 years, age > 80 years, upper endoscopy, and experience of endoscopy in the past 5 years were significantly associated with cancelations. In 2020, cancelations in the 14th-26th week of the year, including the period of state of emergency, increased significantly, and more women canceled. Of the 409 questionnaire-respondents, 174 (42.5%) indicated that COVID-19 had influenced their cancelation, and 315 (77.0%) had not undergone similar endoscopic examinations since then. The BSTS model predicted a decrease of 957 (95% CI -1213 to -708, P = .003) examinations. CONCLUSION: In 2020, despite low numbers of COVID-19 cases in the study site, the number of endoscopies decreased, and cancelation increased. Further research is needed on the future impact of a decrease in the number of endoscopies during a COVID-19 pandemic.