Non-invasive assessment of severe liver fibrosis in patients with Fontan-associated liver disease: The VALDIG-EASL FONLIVER cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Fontan-type surgery is used as a palliation for congenital heart disease with univentricular physiology but may, in the long term, lead to advanced chronic liver disease. This study assessed the accuracy of conventional non-invasive models in assessing liver fibrosis and introduces a new risk score employing non-invasive tools. METHODS: A prospective, cross-sectional, observational study was conducted across five European centers and encompassing all consecutive adult patients with Fontan circulation, liver biopsy and non-invasive tests (elastography, APRI, FIB-4, Fibrosis score, Doha, GUCI, and AAR). The primary outcome was the identification of severe liver fibrosis on biopsy. Multivariable logistic regression identified non-invasive predictors of severe fibrosis, leading to the development and internal validation of a new scoring model named the FonLiver risk score. RESULTS: In total, 217 patients (mean [standard deviation] age, 27.9 [8.9] years; 50.7% males) were included. Severe liver fibrosis was present in 47.9% (95% CI 41.2%-54.5%) and correlated with a lower functional class, protein-losing enteropathy, and compromised cardiopulmonary and systemic hemodynamics. The final FonLiver risk score incorporated liver stiffness measurement using transient elastography and platelet count and demonstrated strong discrimination and calibration (area under the receiver operating curve [AUROC] of 0.81). The FonLiver risk score outperformed conventional prediction models (APRI, FIB-4, Fibrosis score, Doha, GUCI, and AAR), which all exhibited worse performance in our cohort (AUROC < 0.70 for all). CONCLUSION: Severe liver fibrosis is prevalent in adults following Fontan-type palliation and can be effectively estimated using with the novel FonLiver risk score. This scoring system can be easily incorporated into the routine assessment of patients with Fontan circulation.

Histologic and Molecular Type Changes in Endometrial Cancer Recurrences in Comparison With Their Corresponding Primary Tumors.

In this study, molecular alterations in endometrial carcinoma (EC) recurrences were analyzed. We aimed to identify genes implicated in tumor progression and to evaluate whether histologic and molecular type shifting occurs in recurrences. Thus, we analyzed 50 samples corresponding to 24 primary ECs (15 low-grade endometrioid endometrial carcinomas [LG-EECs] and 9 high-grade endometrial carcinomas) and their corresponding 26 recurrences. These were studied by immunohistochemistry, next-generation sequencing, and MLH1 promoter methylation. We observed shared mutations in all primary tumors and their recurrences, indicating a clonal relationship between both lesions. Most morphologic and molecular changes associated with progression were found in LG-EEC. In this group, 6 patients (40%) presented additional mutations in the recurrence. These mutations more frequently affected genes of the PI3K/AKT/PTEN pathway, implicating this pathway not only in tumor initiation but also in progression. In addition, 2 patients (13%) in which the primary tumor belonged to the nonspecific molecular profile subtype, shifted to the mismatch repair deficient (MMRd) subtype after the acquisition of MLH1 promoter methylation in the recurrence lesions. In 3 patients (20%) with MMRd, there was a change from LG-EEC to G3-EEC. One TP53-mutated LG-EEC transformed into an undifferentiated carcinoma in a mediastinal lymph node metastasis after losing the expression of SMARCA2 while preserving SMARCA4 and SMARCB1. Morphologic and molecular changes in EC recurrences, especially dedifferentiation and the acquisition of MMRd, should be considered for a correct diagnosis and treatment. MMRd should be tested in metastatic lesions, if available, in patients with primary tumors reported to be of a molecular subtype different from MMRd.

Non-perinatal listeriosis: Changes in frequency, clinical spectrum and prognostic factors.

INTRODUCTION: Listeria monocytogenes infection is a severe disease affecting mainly aged people and patients with immune depression. The incidence of listeriosis seems to be increasing. In the present study cases of listeriosis from two hospitals are analyzed with the aims of studying changes in its incidence, clinical forms of presentation and possible factors associated with mortality. METHODS: Retrospective multicentric study of patients with culture-proven listeriosis in two university hospitals in Madrid between 1977 and 2021. Epidemiological and clinical variables, as well as factors for immune depression, complementary studies and treatments were registered. Factors associated with mortality were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 194 cases of listeriosis were analyzed. The incidence of listeriosis among in-patients increased through the study period, with a significant drop in the number of cases in 2020. The most common clinical presentations were isolated bacteriemia (37.1%) and central nervous system involvement (CNS) (36.6%). Symptoms of gastroenteritis occurred in 21% of cases. Other focal infections were present in 16.5% of patients, the most frequent were spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (8.2%), cholecystitis (2.1%), respiratory infection (1.5%) and vascular prothesis infection (1.5%). In-hospital mortality was 24.7%. Independent factors associated with mortality at admission were age (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.027, 95% confidence interval [IC95%] 1.003-1.056) and a diagnosis of a solid tumor (OR 3.525, IC95% 1.652-7.524). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms an increasing incidence of listeriosis in our millieu. The most common clinical presentations were isolated bacteriemia and central nervous system involvement. In-hospital mortality was associated with age and the diagnosis of a solid tumor.

Incidence of Anal Cancer and Related Risk Factors in HIV-Infected Patients Enrolled in the National Prospective Spanish Cohort CoRIS.

BACKGROUND: People living with HIV have an increased risk of anal cancer. OBJECTIVE: To estimate anal cancer incidence and related risk factors in a national cohort of HIV-infected patients. DESIGN: Prospective multicenter cohort study. SETTINGS: Multicenter study including patients from the Spanish HIV Research Network. PATIENTS: We collected data from 16,274 HIV-infected treatment-naive adults recruited from January 2004 to November 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: The primary outcome measures of this study were the incidence and prevalence of anal carcinoma. The secondary outcome measures included the associations between baseline and time-dependent covariables and the primary end point. RESULTS: Twenty-six cases of anal cancer were diagnosed, 22 of which were incident cases resulting in a cumulative incidence of 22.29 of 100,000 person-years, which was stable during the study period. At the end of the study, 20 of the 43 centers had screening programs for high-grade anal dysplasia. Patients with anal cancer were males (26/26; 100% vs 13,833/16,248; 85.1%), were mostly men who have sex with men (23/26; 88.5% vs 10,017/16,248; 61.6%), had a median age of 43 years (interquartile range, 35-51), were more frequently previously diagnosed with an AIDS-defining illness (9/26; 34.6% vs 2429/16,248; 15%), and had lower nadir CD4 cell counts (115 vs 303 µL). About a third (34.6%, 9/26) were younger than 35 years. In multivariable analysis, men who have sex with men and patients with previous AIDS-defining illness had an 8.3-fold (95% CI, 1.9-36.3) and 2.7-fold (95% CI, 1.1-6.6) increased HR for developing anal cancer, respectively. Patients with higher CD4 cell counts during the follow-up showed a 28% lower risk per each additional 100 CD4 cell/µL (95% CI, 41%-22%). LIMITATIONS: Lack of information on some potential risk factors, screening, and treatment of high-grade anal dysplasia were not uniformly initiated across centers during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Although the overall incidence in our study was low, there was a significant number of patients younger than 35 years with anal cancer. In addition to age, other factors, such as men who have sex with men and patients with severe immunosuppression (current or past), should be prioritized for anal cancer screening. INCIDENCIA DEL CNCER DE ANO Y LOS FACTORES DE RIESGO RELACIONADOS CON PACIENTES INFECTADOS POR VIH INCLUIDOS EN LA COHORTE PROSPECTIVA NACIONAL ESPAOLA CORIS: ANTECEDENTES:Las personas portadoras del virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana tienen un mayor riesgo de cáncer anal.OBJETIVO:Nosotros queremos estimar la incidencia de cáncer anal y los factores de riesgo relacionados en una cohorte nacional española de pacientes infectados por VIH.DISEÑO:Estudio de cohortes de tipo multicéntrico y prospectivo.ÁMBITO:Se incluyeron pacientes de la Red Española de Investigación en VIH.PACIENTES:Recolectamos los datos de 16,274 adultos infectados por el VIH que nunca habían recibido tratamiento, reclutados desde enero de 2004 hasta noviembre de 2020.MEDIDAS DE RESULTADO PRINCIPALES:Las medidas de resultado primarias de este estudio fueron la incidencia y la prevalencia del carcinoma anal. Las medidas de resultado secundarias incluyeron las asociaciones entre las covariables basales y dependientes del tiempo y el criterio principal de valoración.RESULTADOS:Se diagnosticaron 26 casos de cáncer anal, de los cuales 22 fueron casos incidentales resultando con una incidencia acumulada de 22,29/100.000 personas-año que se mantuvo estable durante el período de estudio.Al final de nuestro estudio, 20 de los 43 centros referentes tenían programas de detección de displasia anal de alto grado. Los pacientes con cáncer anal eran hombres (26/26; 100% vs 13 833/16 248; 85,1%), en su mayoría hombres que mantenían sexo con otros hombres (23/26; 88,5% vs 10 017/16 248; 61,6%), la mediana de edad fue de 43 años (IQR: 3 -51), 34,6% (9/26) < 35 años, previa y frecuentemente diagnosticados con una enfermedad definitoria de SIDA (9/26; 34,6% vs 2429/16248; 15%) y que tenían un punto opuesto mucho más bajo en el recuentos de células CD4 (115 µL frente a 303 µL).En el análisis multivariable, los hombres que tenían relaciones sexuales con otros hombres y los pacientes con enfermedades definitorias de sida anteriores, tenían un aumento de 8,3 veces (IC del 95%: 1,9 a 36,3) y de 2,7 veces (IC del 95%: 1,1 a 6,6) en el cociente de riesgos instantáneos para desarrollar cáncer anal, respectivamente. Los pacientes con recuentos de células CD4 más altos durante el seguimiento mostraron un riesgo 28 % menor por cada 100 células CD4/µl adicionales (95% IC: 41%- 22%).LIMITACIONES:La falta de información sobre algunos factores potenciales de riesgo, la detección y el tratamiento de la displasia anal de alto grado no se iniciaron uniformemente en todos los centros durante el período de estudio.CONCLUSIONES:Si bien la incidencia general en nuestro estudio fue baja, hubo un número significativo de pacientes de <35 años con cáncer anal. Además de la edad, otros factores como los hombres que tienen sexo con hombres y los pacientes con inmunosupresión severa (actual o pasada) deben priorizarse para la detección del cáncer anal. ( Traducción-Dr. Xavier Delgadillo ).

Microbiome-derived cobalamin and succinyl-CoA as biomarkers for improved screening of anal cancer.

Human papillomavirus can cause preinvasive, high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSILs) as precursors to cancer in the anogenital area, and the microbiome is suggested to be a contributing factor. Men who have sex with men (MSM) living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have a high risk of anal cancer, but current screening strategies for HSIL detection lack specificity. Here, we investigated the anal microbiome to improve HSIL screening. We enrolled participants living with HIV, divided into a discovery (n = 167) and validation cohort (n = 46), and who were predominantly (93.9%) cisgender MSM undergoing HSIL screening with high-resolution anoscopy and anal biopsies. We identified no microbiome composition signatures associated with HSILs, but elevated levels of microbiome-encoded proteins producing succinyl coenzyme A and cobalamin were significantly associated with HSILs in both cohorts. Measurement of these candidate biomarkers alone in anal cytobrushes outperformed anal cytology as a diagnostic indicator for HSILs, increasing the sensitivity from 91.2% to 96.6%, the specificity from 34.1% to 81.8%, and reclassifying 82% of false-positive results as true negatives. We propose that these two microbiome-derived biomarkers may improve the current strategy of anal cancer screening.

Interobserver Variability in Contouring Hepatocellular Carcinoma at a Tertiary Center.

BACKGROUND/AIM: The optimal imaging test for delineation of the gross tumor volume (GTV) in hepatocellular carcinoma has not been defined. The hypothesis is that magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) allows for better visualization of the extent of tumor and will optimize the accuracy of tumor delineation for liver stereotactic radiotherapy compared with computed tomography (CT) only. We evaluated the interobserver agreement in GTV of hepatocellular carcinoma in a multicenter panel and compared MRI and CT in GTV delineation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: After the institutional review boards approved the study, we analyzed anonymous CT and MRI obtained from five patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Eight radiation oncologists at our center used CT and MRI to delineate five GTVs of liver tumors. In both CT and MRI, the GTV volumes were compared. RESULTS: The median GTV volume on MRI was 2.4 cm3 (range=0.59-15.6 cm3) compared to 3.5 cm3 (range=0.52-24.9 cm3) on CT (p=0.36). The GTV volume as defined on MRI was larger or at least as large as the GTV volume on CT in two cases. Variance and standard deviation between observers in CT and MRI were minor (6 vs. 7.87 cm3, and 2.5 vs. 2.8 cm3 respectively). CONCLUSION: In cases with well-defined tumors, CT is easier and reproducible. In cases with no defined tumor in CT, other tools are needed and MRI can be complementary. The interobserver variability in target delineation of hepatocellular carcinoma in this study is noteworthy.

Sex-Related Differences in Patient Characteristics, Risk Factors, and Symptomatology in Older Adults with Pulmonary Embolism: Findings from the SERIOUS-PE Study.

Sex-specific factors are implicated in pulmonary embolism (PE) presentation in young patients, as indicated by increased risk in pregnancy. Whether sex differences exist in PE presentation, comorbidities, and symptomatology in older adults, the age group in which most PEs occur, remains unknown. We identified older adults (aged ≥65 years) with PE in a large international PE registry replete with information about relevant clinical characteristics (RIETE registry, 2001-2021). To provide national data from the United States, we assessed sex differences in clinical characteristics and risk factors of Medicare beneficiaries with PE (2001-2019). The majority of older adults with PE in RIETE (19,294/33,462, 57.7%) and in the Medicare database (551,492/948,823, 58.7%) were women. Compared with men, women with PE less frequently had atherosclerotic diseases, lung disease, cancer, or unprovoked PE, but more frequently had varicose veins, depression, prolonged immobility, or history of hormonal therapy (p < 0.001 for all). Women less often presented with chest pain (37.3 vs. 40.6%) or hemoptysis (2.4 vs. 5.6%) but more often with dyspnea (84.6 vs. 80.9%) (p < 0.001 for all). Measures of clot burden, PE risk stratification, and use of imaging modalities were comparable between women and men. PE is more common in elderly women than in men. Cancer and cardiovascular disease are more common in men, whereas transient provoking factors including trauma, immobility, or hormone therapy are more common in elderly women with PE. Whether such differences correlate with disparities in treatment or differences in short- or long-term clinical outcomes warrants further investigation.

New proposal to address mediation analysis interrogations by using genetic variants as instrumental variables.

The application of causal mediation analysis (CMA) considering the mediation effect of a third variable is increasing in epidemiological studies; however, this requires fitting strong assumptions on confounding bias. To address this limitation, we propose an extension of CMA combining it with Mendelian randomization (MRinCMA). We applied the new approach to analyse the causal effect of obesity and diabetes on pancreatic cancer, considering each factor as potential mediator. To check the performance of MRinCMA under several conditions/scenarios, we used it in different simulated data sets and compared it with structural equation models. For continuous variables, MRinCMA and structural equation models performed similarly, suggesting that both approaches are valid to obtain unbiased estimates. When noncontinuous variables were considered, MRinCMA presented, overall, lower bias than structural equation models. By applying MRinCMA, we did not find any evidence of causality of obesity or diabetes on pancreatic cancer. With this new methodology, researchers would be able to address CMA hypotheses by appropriately accounting for the confounding bias assumption regardless of the conditions used in their studies in different settings.

SARS-CoV-2 Virus in Cancer Patients: A New Unknown in an Unsolved Equation.

INTRODUCTION: Cancer patients are more susceptible to infections, and infection can be more severe than in patients without cancer diagnosis. We conducted this retrospective study in patients admitted for SARS-CoV-2 infection in order to find differences in inflammatory markers and mortality in cancer patients compared to others. METHODS: We reviewed the electronic records of patients admitted for SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by PCR from March to September 2020. Data on socio-demographics, comorbidities, inflammatory makers, and cancer-related features were analyzed. RESULTS: 2,772 patients were admitted for SARS-CoV-2, to the Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal in Madrid during this period. Of these, 2,527 (91%) had no history of neoplastic disease, 164 (5.9%) patients had a prior history of cancer but were not undergoing oncological treatment at the time of infection, and 81 (2.9%) were in active treatment. Mortality in patients without a history of cancer was 19.5%, 28.6% for patients with a prior history of cancer, and 34% in patients with active cancer treatment. Patients in active oncology treatment with the highest mortality rate were those diagnosed with lung cancer (OR 5.6 95% CI: 2.2-14.1). In the multivariate study, active oncological treatment (OR 2.259 95% CI: 1.35-3.77) and chemotherapy treatment (OR 3.624 95% CI: 1.17-11.17), were statistically significant factors for the risk of death for the whole group and for the group with active oncological treatment, respectively. CONCLUSION: Cancer patients on active systemic treatment have an increased risk of mortality after SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially with lung cancer or chemotherapy treatment.

Cancer-Associated Thrombosis: Trends in Clinical Features, Treatment, and Outcomes From 2001 to 2020.

Background: Despite advances in cancer and venous thromboembolism (VTE) management, the epidemiology of cancer-associated thrombosis management over time remains unclear. Objectives: We analyzed data from the RIETE (Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad Trombo Embólica) registry spanning 2001 to 2020 to investigate temporal trends in clinical characteristics and treatments for cancer-associated thrombosis. Methods: Using multivariable survival regression, we examined temporal trends in risk-adjusted rates of symptomatic VTE recurrences, major bleeding, and death within 30 days after incident VTE. Results: Among the 17,271 patients with cancer-associated thrombosis, there was a progressive increase in patients presenting with pulmonary embolism (from 44% in 2001-2005 to 55% in 2016-2020; P < 0.001 for trend), lung (from 12.7% to 18.1%; P < 0.001) or pancreatic cancer (from 3.8% to 5.6%; P = 0.003), and utilization of immunotherapy (from 0% to 7.4%; P < 0.001). Conversely, there was a decline in patients with prostate cancer (from 11.7% to 6.6%; P < 0.001) or carcinoma of unknown origin (from 3.5% to 0.7%; P < 0.001). At the 30-day follow-up, a reduction was observed in the proportion of patients experiencing symptomatic VTE recurrences (from 3.1% to 1.1%; P < 0.001), major bleeding (from 3.1% to 2.2%; P = 0.004), and death (from 11.9% to 8.4%; P < 0.001). Multivariable analyses revealed a decreased risk over time for VTE recurrence (adjusted subdistribution HR [asHR]: 0.94 per year; 95% CI: 0.92-0.98), major bleeding (asHR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96-0.99), and death (aHR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.96-0.98). Conclusions: In this multicenter study of cancer patients with VTE, there was a decline in thrombotic, hemorrhagic, and fatal events from 2001 to 2020. (Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad Trombo Embólica [RIETE]; NCT02832245).

Chronic Bronchial Infection Is Associated with More Rapid Lung Function Decline in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Rationale: Some patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) suffer accelerated lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1]) decline over time. Objectives: To investigate the relationship between chronic bronchial infection (CBI) and, in particular, the isolation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PA), and FEV1 decline in COPD. Methods: Post-hoc analysis of a prospective cohort of 201 patients with COPD followed up every 3-6 months for 84 months. CBI was defined as ⩾3 sputum positive cultures of the same pathogenic micro-organism (PPM) over 1 year. Patients were stratified according to the presence of CBI by any PPM, as well by a single or multiple isolation of PA during follow-up. An adjusted mixed-effects linear regression model was used to investigate the independent effects of CBI and PA isolation on FEV1 decline over time. Results: During follow-up, PPMs were never isolated in 43.3% of patients, in 23.9% of them PPMs were isolated once, and CBI by any PPM was confirmed in 32.8% of participants. FEV1 decline in the entire cohort was 33.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 21.4-46.1) ml/year. This was significantly increased in patients with CBI by any PPM (57.1 [95% CI, 28.5-79.3] ml/year) and in those in whom PA was isolated at least once (48.5 [95% CI, 27.3-88.2] ml/year). Multivariable analysis showed that the presence of both CBI by any PPM, and at least one PA isolation, were independent factors associated with faster FEV1 decline adjusted by baseline FEV1, presence of bronchiectasis, body mass index, age, exacerbations, smoking status, symptoms, baseline treatment, and comorbidities. Conclusions: The presence of CBI by any PPM, and one or more PA isolation, were independently associated with FEV1 decline in patients with COPD.

Prognostic value of circulating endothelial cells in glioblastoma patients: a pilot study.

Aim: Glioblastoma (GB) is an aggressive tumor type and the detection of circulating endothelial cells (CECs) in peripheral blood has been related to angiogenesis. Materials & methods: A prospective single-center pilot study of CEC detection at diagnosis in 22 patients with GB was performed, using the US FDA-approved CellSearch system. Results: A CEC cutoff value was estimated using a receiver operating curve (ROC) and patients were classified into two groups: <40 CEC/4 ml and >40 CEC/4 ml blood. Median overall survival was 25.33 months for group 1 and 8.23 months for group 2 cases (p = 0.02). There was no correlation between CEC and PWI (perfusion-weighted imaging) RM. Conclusion: CEC detection has a prognostic value in GB cases at diagnosis.

Statin use and 30-day mortality in patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Statins possess antithrombotic and profibrinolytic properties. The association between statin use and short-term outcomes in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) remains unknown. METHODS: We used the data from the Registro Informatizado de Pacientes con Enfermedad TromboEmbólica registry to compare the 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with acute PE according to the use of statins. Secondary outcome was fatal PE. We used cancer-related mortality as a falsification endpoint. RESULTS: From January 2009 to April 2021, 31 169 patients with PE were recruited. Of these, 5520 (18%) were using statins at baseline: low intensity: 829, moderate: 3636, high intensity: 1055. Statin users were older and had a higher frequency of diabetes, hypertension, or atherosclerotic disease than non-users (P <0.001 for all comparisons). During the first 30 days, 1475 patients died (fatal PE, 255). On multivariable analysis, statin users had a lower risk of all-cause death (odds ratio [OR]: 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56-0.76) and fatal PE (OR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.28-0.62) than non-users. The risk for death was lower in patients using either low- (OR: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.34-0.77), moderate- (OR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.57-0.81), or high-intensity statins (OR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.51-0.92). Results did not change in mixed effects logistic regression models with hospitals as a random effect. Statins were not associated with a significant chance in cancer mortality (falsification endpoint). CONCLUSIONS: PE patients using statins at baseline had a significantly lower risk of dying within the first 30 days than non-users. Randomized trials are needed to confirm these data.

Prognostic Significance of Findings on CTPA Supporting an Alternative Diagnosis to PE Among Patients Hospitalized for an Exacerbation of COPD: Predefined Subanalysis of the SLICE Trial. / Significado pronóstico de los diagnósticos alternativos a la TEP hallados en la tomografía computarizada de tórax de pacientes ingresados por agudización de EPOC: subanálisis predefinido del ensayo SLICE.

BACKGROUND: Among patients hospitalized for an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the SLICE trial showed that the addition of an active diagnostic strategy for pulmonary embolism (PE) to usual care compared with usual care alone did not improve a composite set of health outcomes. The objective of this subanalysis was to determine the frequency and prognostic significance of findings on computed tomography pulmonary angiogram (CTPA) supporting an alternative diagnosis to PE. METHODS: We analyzed all patients randomized to the intervention in the SLICE trial who received a CTPA that did not show PE. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the independent association between findings supporting an alternative diagnosis to PE and a composite of readmission for COPD or death within 90 days after randomization. RESULTS: Among the 746 patients who were randomized, this subanalysis included 175 patients in the intervention group who received a CTPA that did not show PE. Eighty-four (48.0%) patients had acute bronchial infection, 13 (7.4%) had lung cancer, 10 (5.7%) had congestive heart failure, 8 (4.6%), 18 (10.3%) had other diagnoses, and 42 (24.0%) had a normal CTPA. In multivariable analysis, findings supporting an alternative diagnosis to PE were not significantly associated with the primary outcome (odds ratio: 0.64; 95% confidence interval: 0.30-1.38; P=0.26). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients hospitalized for an exacerbation of COPD, CTPA identified an alternative diagnosis in 76% of the patients. However, specific management of these patients was not associated with improved outcomes within 90 days after randomization.

An Easy-to-Implement Risk Score for Targeted Hepatitis C Virus Testing in the General Population.

Despite the effectiveness of available treatments, hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains a major public health problem, mainly due to the high percentage of undiagnosed individuals. We aim to create an easy-to-implement risk score to facilitate targeted HCV testing in the general population. This is a substudy derived from a prospective study in primary care in Madrid (Spain). Participants completed a 21-question risk assessment questionnaire, followed by HCV testing for those with at least one positive response and those >50 years of age, even if they did not answer positively. We used the population >50 years of age to fit a logistic regression model to create a score predicting the risk of a positive test result. We then performed a sensitivity analysis by applying the score obtained to the population <50 years of age, to assess its diagnostic accuracy. Data collected from 2,302 participants were included in the analysis. The prevalence of HCV infection was 1.3%. Five items were selected, showing a C-statistic of 0.896, i.e., male sex, Eastern European origin, use of intravenous drugs, self-perceived risk of acquired HCV infection, and past hepatitis or unexplained liver disease. The sensitivity was 98%, and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.05 for participants with scores of 0 (49.8% in our sample), ruling out HCV infection with high probability. We obtained similar estimates in the population <50 years of age. This tool achieved high diagnostic accuracy to target HCV testing. This could help optimize resources when universal screening is not feasible. IMPORTANCE Despite the highly effective treatments currently available, HCV remains one of the major public health problems related to an infectious agent, mainly because a high percentage of individuals remain undiagnosed. Universal screening has been proposed as a way to end this epidemic; however, it is not feasible in all settings due to different implementation barriers. With this work, we aim to collaborate in improving the diagnosis of HCV infection by creating a simple 5-item score that rules out HCV infection with a very high probability. Almost one-half of the participants in our sample did not present any affirmative answers to these questions, and their probability of being infected was close to 0%. This tool could be a useful strategy and could be considered a cost-effective alternative to optimize resources when universal screening is not feasible.

Individualized prediction for the occurrence of acute kidney injury during the first postoperative week following cardiac surgery.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To develop individualized dynamic predictions for the occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) during the first postoperative week after cardiac surgery. DESIGN: Observational retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Single university teaching hospital in Madrid, Spain. PATIENTS: 3960 cases of major cardiac surgery performed from January 2002 to December 2013. MEASUREMENTS: Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics, intraoperative risk factors, and repeated postoperative estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR). The primary outcome was AKI during the first postoperative week (stage 1 or higher of the Acute Kidney Injury Network). The dataset was split in two random samples (exploratory and validation). By combining time-to-event outcomes (AKI), and longitudinal data (repeated postoperative eGFR), we developed two different joint models for patients with normal and high baseline levels of serum creatinine (sCr). MAIN RESULTS: AKI occurred in 1105 patients (31%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 29.5-32.5) in the exploratory sample and 128 (32.2%, 95% CI 27.6-36.8) in the validation sample. For high baseline sCr patients, the risk of an AKI event was associated with the eGFR trajectory (hazard ratio [HR] 0.91, 95% CI 0.90-0.92), as well as with age, and cardiopulmonary bypass time. The normal baseline sCr model incorporated the same covariates and intraoperative transfusion. In this second model, the risk of an AKI event was associated with both the eGFR trajectory (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.91-0.92, for the current value of eGFR), and with its slope at that point (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.99). So AKI risk decreased when the eGFR values increased, in accordance with the speed of this rise. Internal validation showed good discrimination and calibration of both joint models. The AUCs were always higher than 0.7. CONCLUSIONS: The joint models obtained combining both patient risk factors and postoperative eGFR values, are useful to predict individualized risk of cardiac surgery-associated AKI. Predictions can be updated as new information is gathered.

Endoscopy-Related Bleeding and Thromboembolic Events in Patients on Direct Oral Anticoagulants or Vitamin K Antagonists.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Few prospective studies have assessed the safety of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in elective endoscopy. Our primary aim was to compare the risks of endoscopy-related gastrointestinal bleeding and thromboembolic events in patients on DOACs or vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in this setting. Secondarily, we examined the impact of the timing of anticoagulant resumption on the risk of delayed bleeding in high-risk therapeutic procedures. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, prospective, observational study from January 2018 to March 2020 of 1602 patients on oral anticoagulants (1004 on VKAs and 598 on DOACs) undergoing 1874 elective endoscopic procedures. Our primary outcomes were 90-day thromboembolic events and 30-day endoscopy-related gastrointestinal bleeding. The inverse probability of treatment weighting propensity score method was used for baseline covariate adjustment. RESULTS: The 2 groups had similar risks of endoscopy-related gastrointestinal bleeding (VKAs vs DOACs, 6.2% vs 6.7%; adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.05; 95% CI, 0.67-1.65) and thromboembolic events (VKAs vs DOACs, 1.3% vs 1.5%; adjusted OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.34-2.38). In high bleeding risk procedures (n = 747), delayed anticoagulant resumption (> 48 hours or 24-48 hours vs < 24 hours) did not reduce the risk of postprocedural bleeding (10.3%, 9%, and 5.8%, respectively; adjusted P = .43). Hot and cold snare polypectomy were the most frequent high-risk interventions (41.8% and 39.8%, respectively). CONCLUSION: In a prospective study of patients on DOACs or VKAs undergoing elective endoscopy, endoscopy-related bleeding and thromboembolic events showed similar risk. Our study suggests that early anticoagulant resumption is safe in most patients, but more data are needed for advanced high-risk therapeutic procedures.

Assessment of Duodenal Intraepithelial Lymphocyte Composition (Lymphogram) for Accurate and Prompt Diagnosis of Celiac Disease in Pediatric Patients.

INTRODUCTION: Quantitative and phenotypic analyses of duodenal intraepithelial lymphocytes (IELs) by flow cytometry (IEL lymphogram) confer specificity and enable the diagnosis even in unconventional presentations of celiac disease (CD). To evaluate the validity of the IEL lymphograms in the pediatric population for new insights into their use as biomarkers in the natural history of CD. METHODS: We retrospectively included 1,211 children (602 with active CD, 92 on a gluten-free diet, 47 with potential CD, and 470 nonceliac controls) who required duodenal biopsies in this study. The cutoff values for IEL subsets were established to calculate the probability of disease according to the lymphogram. RESULTS: A celiac lymphogram (a ≥15% increase in gamma-delta T-cell receptor IELs and a simultaneous ≤6% decrease in CD3 surface-negative [sCD3-]) IELs was strongly associated with the diagnosis of active CD, which was present in 89.7% of the confirmed patients. The remaining 10% of the celiac patients had a partial celiac lymphogram (≥15% increase gamma-delta T-cell receptor IELs or ≤6% decrease in sCD3- IELs), with lower diagnostic certainty. On a gluten-free diet, nearly 20% of the patients were indistinguishable from nonceliac subjects based on the lymphogram. In potential CD, a decrease in sCD3- IELs was a risk marker of progression to villous atrophy and a diagnosis of active CD. DISCUSSION: If a biopsy is clinically indicated, the IEL lymphogram adds specificity to the histological findings, reducing diagnostic delays and misdiagnoses. The lymphogram is useful for monitoring the natural progression of the disease and predicting the transition from potential celiac to overt CD.

Prognostic models for mortality after cardiac surgery in patients with infective endocarditis: a systematic review and aggregation of prediction models.

BACKGROUND: There are several prognostic models to estimate the risk of mortality after surgery for active infective endocarditis (IE). However, these models incorporate different predictors and their performance is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: We systematically reviewed and critically appraised all available prediction models of postoperative mortality in patients undergoing surgery for IE, and aggregated them into a meta-model. DATA SOURCES: We searched Medline and EMBASE databases from inception to June 2020. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We included studies that developed or updated a prognostic model of postoperative mortality in patient with IE. METHODS: We assessed the risk of bias of the models using PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool) and we aggregated them into an aggregate meta-model based on stacked regressions and optimized it for a nationwide registry of IE patients. The meta-model performance was assessed using bootstrap validation methods and adjusted for optimism. RESULTS: We identified 11 prognostic models for postoperative mortality. Eight models had a high risk of bias. The meta-model included weighted predictors from the remaining three models (EndoSCORE, specific ES-I and specific ES-II), which were not rated as high risk of bias and provided full model equations. Additionally, two variables (age and infectious agent) that had been modelled differently across studies, were estimated based on the nationwide registry. The performance of the meta-model was better than the original three models, with the corresponding performance measures: C-statistics 0.79 (95% CI 0.76-0.82), calibration slope 0.98 (95% CI 0.86-1.13) and calibration-in-the-large -0.05 (95% CI -0.20 to 0.11). CONCLUSIONS: The meta-model outperformed published models and showed a robust predictive capacity for predicting the individualized risk of postoperative mortality in patients with IE. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO (registration number CRD42020192602).