The Impact of Hospital Transfers on Surgical Delay and Associated Postoperative Outcomes for Hip Fracture Patients in Scotland: A Cohort Study.

Background/Objectives: Hip fractures exert a substantial burden on hospital systems. Within Scotland 20% of the population resides rurally, warranting investigation of how this impacts prompt access to surgical care. This study aims to determine whether indirect hospital admission via hospital transfer affects the likelihood of surgical management within 36 h for hip fracture patients. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed. This used Scottish Hip Fracture Audit data including patients aged ≥50 split into two propensity matched groups based on their transfer status. Descriptive analysis compared patient characteristics. Regression assessed achieving surgery within 36 h of admission in the unmatched and matched cohorts. Secondary outcomes included time to surgery, mortality, mobilization, returning to residence and length of stay. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken to assess for residual confounding effects. Results: The unmatched analysis included 20,132 patients. Transfer patients were younger (p = 0.007) and less-comorbid (p < 0.001). In the matched population, 711 (63.6%) transfer patients had surgery with 36 h of presentation to hospital, compared to 852 (75.3%) non-transfer patients. Transfer patients had 43% reduced odds of timely surgery (OR (95% CI) 0.57 (0.48 to 0.69); p < 0.001). No disparities emerged in mortality, mobilisation or returning to residence., Transfer patients experienced a significant increase in length of stay in hospital (median (IQR) 16 (8 to 33) vs. 13 (8 to 30); p = 0.024). Conclusions: Hospital transfer is associated with significantly reduced odds of timely surgery, a longer time to surgery and longer length of stay. Development of structured network pathways that minimize delay to transfer are required to potentially optimize outcomes and reduce associated cost.

A randomised, double blind, placebo-controlled trial of a two-week course of dexamethasone for adult patients with a symptomatic Chronic Subdural Haematoma (Dex-CSDH trial).

Background: Chronic subdural haematoma is a collection of 'old blood' and its breakdown products in the subdural space and predominantly affects older people. Surgical evacuation remains the mainstay in the management of symptomatic cases. Objective: The Dex-CSDH (DEXamethasone in Chronic SubDural Haematoma) randomised trial investigated the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dexamethasone in patients with a symptomatic chronic subdural haematoma. Design: This was a parallel, superiority, multicentre, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial. Assigned treatment was administered in a double-blind fashion. Outcome assessors were also blinded to treatment allocation. Setting: Neurosurgical units in the UK. Participants: Eligible participants included adults (aged ≥ 18 years) admitted to a neurosurgical unit with a symptomatic chronic subdural haematoma confirmed on cranial imaging. Interventions: Participants were randomly assigned in a 1 : 1 allocation to a 2-week tapering course of dexamethasone or placebo alongside standard care. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was the Modified Rankin Scale score at 6 months dichotomised to a favourable (score of 0-3) or an unfavourable (score of 4-6) outcome. Secondary outcomes included the Modified Rankin Scale score at discharge and 3 months; number of chronic subdural haematoma-related surgical interventions undertaken during the index and subsequent admissions; Barthel Index and EuroQol 5-Dimension 5-Level utility index score reported at discharge, 3 months and 6 months; Glasgow Coma Scale score reported at discharge and 6 months; mortality at 30 days and 6 months; length of stay; discharge destination; and adverse events. An economic evaluation was also undertaken, during which the net monetary benefit was estimated at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Results: A total of 748 patients were included after randomisation: 375 were assigned to dexamethasone and 373 were assigned to placebo. The mean age of the patients was 74 years and 94% underwent evacuation of their chronic subdural haematoma during the trial period. A total of 680 patients (91%) had 6-month primary outcome data available for analysis: 339 in the placebo arm and 341 in the dexamethasone arm. On a modified intention-to-treat analysis of the full study population, there was an absolute reduction in the proportion of favourable outcomes of 6.4% (95% confidence interval 11.4% to 1.4%; p = 0.01) in the dexamethasone arm compared with the control arm at 6 months. At 3 months, the between-group difference was also in favour of placebo (-8.2%, 95% confidence interval -13.3% to -3.1%). Serious adverse events occurred in 60 out of 375 (16.0%) in the dexamethasone arm and 24 out of 373 (6.4%) in the placebo arm. The net monetary benefit of dexamethasone compared with placebo was estimated to be -£97.19. Conclusions: This trial reports a higher rate of unfavourable outcomes at 6 months, and a higher rate of serious adverse events, in the dexamethasone arm than in the placebo arm. Dexamethasone was also not estimated to be cost-effective. Therefore, dexamethasone cannot be recommended for the treatment of chronic subdural haematoma in this population group. Future work and limitations: A total of 94% of individuals underwent surgery, meaning that this trial does not fully define the role of dexamethasone in conservatively managed haematomas, which is a potential area for future study. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN80782810. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 13/15/02) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 12. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Chronic subdural haematoma is one of the most common conditions managed in adult neurosurgery and mainly affects older people. It is an 'old' collection of blood and blood breakdown products found on the surface of the brain. Surgery to drain the liquid collection is effective, with most patients improving. Given that inflammation is involved in the disease process, a commonly used steroid, dexamethasone, has been used alongside surgery or instead of surgery since the 1970s. However, there is no consensus or high-quality studies confirming the effectiveness of dexamethasone for the treatment of chronic subdural haematoma. This study was designed to determine the effectiveness of adding dexamethasone to the normal treatment for patients with a symptomatic chronic subdural haematoma. The benefit of adding dexamethasone was measured using a disability score called the Modified Rankin Scale, which can be divided into favourable and unfavourable outcomes. This was assessed at 6 months after entry into the study. In total, 748 adults with a symptomatic chronic subdural haematoma treated in neurosurgical units in the UK participated. Each participant had an equal chance of receiving either dexamethasone or a placebo because they were assigned randomly. Neither the patients nor the investigators knew who received dexamethasone and who received placebo. Most patients in both groups had an operation to drain the haematoma and experienced significant functional improvement at 6 months compared with their initial admission to hospital. However, patients who received dexamethasone had a lower chance than patients who received placebo of favourable recovery at 6 months. Specifically, 84% of patients who received dexamethasone had recovered well at 6 months, compared with 90% of patients who received placebo. There were more complications in the group that received dexamethasone. This trial demonstrates that adding dexamethasone to standard treatment reduced the chance of a favourable outcome compared with standard treatment alone. Therefore, this study does not support the use of dexamethasone in treating patients with a symptomatic chronic subdural haematoma.

Sex-specific lifetime risk of cardiovascular events: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk prospective population cohort study.

AIMS: Better understanding of sex differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) is essential in tailoring appropriate preventative strategies. Using a large population-based study with follow-up >25 years, we aimed to determine sex-specific lifetime risks of incident CVD and cardiovascular (CV) mortality amongst populations with and without prevalent CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants were drawn from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk and followed up for a median of 26.2 years. Sex-specific lifetime risks were ascertained accounting for the competing risk of death. Models were adjusted for ethnicity and time-updated covariates: material deprivation, CV risk factors, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, and medication. A total of 23 859 participants [54.5% women; mean age (standard deviation) 59.2 (9.3) years at baseline] were included. Adjusted lifetime risks of incident CVD were higher in men than in women (69.1 vs. 57.7% at age 75): cause-specific hazard ratio (cHR) (99% confidence interval)-1.49 (1.41-1.57), while the risks of CV mortality at age 75 were 4.4% (men) and 3.1% (women): cHR-1.42 (1.31-1.54). Myocardial infarction was the predominant first presentation in men until the eighth decade. In women, the first CVD manifestations after their sixth decade were predominantly atrial fibrillation and stroke. The male-associated excess relative risks of incident CVD and CV mortality were halved in people with prevalent CVD. CONCLUSION: We characterized the sex-specific lifetime CV risks in a large cohort. Men had substantially higher risk of incident CVD and CV mortality than women, which was attenuated amongst people with prevalent CVD. Our findings provide an evidence base for sex-specific CV prevention.

In this population-based study, we aimed to understand the sex-specific lifetime trajectories of different heart and circulatory disorders and their relationship with death from heart disease. We included ∼24 000 participants in the analyses, who were followed up for >25 years. Men had a higher lifetime risk of heart and circulatory disorders compared with women. Heart attacks were the predominant first presentation in men until the eighth decade, while in women this was manifested as heart rhythm disorders and stroke after their sixth decade. The excess risk of death from heart disease observed in men with pre-existing heart disease was attenuated compared with those free of heart disease at baseline. In conclusion, men and women require tailored heart disease prevention efforts given the marked sex disparities in heart disease and death over the very long-term highlighted by our study.

Lower mental health related quality of life precedes dementia diagnosis: findings from the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population-based study.

Lower Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) precedes dementia in older adults in the USA. We explore prospective associations between HRQoL and dementia in British adults in mid and late-life, when interventions to optimise cognitive ageing may provide benefit. 7,452 community-dwelling participants (57% women; mean age 69.3 ± 8.3 years) attended the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk study's third health check (3HC) and reported their HRQoL using Short-Form 36 (SF-36). Cox Proportional Hazard regression models explored associations between standard deviation differences in baseline Physical Component (PCS) and Mental Component Summary (MCS) scores, as well as eight SF-36 sub-scales (physical functioning, role-physical, bodily pain, general health, vitality, social functioning, role-emotional, mental health), and incident dementia over ten years. Logistic regression models explored cross-sectional relationships at the 3HC between HRQoL and objective global cognitive function (n = 4435; poor cognition = lowest performance decile). The cohort was examined as a whole and by age-group (50-69, ≥ 70), considering socio-demographics and co-morbidity. Higher MCS scores were associated with lower chance of incident dementia (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 0.74, 95% CI 0.68-0.81) and lower odds of poor cognition (Odds Ratio [OR] = 0.82, 0.76-0.89), with findings similar by age-group. Higher PCS scores were not associated with dementia in the whole cohort (HR = 0.93, 0.84-1.04) or considering age-groups; and were only associated with poor cognition in younger participants (OR = 0.81, 0.72-0.92). Similarly, associations between higher scores on subscales pertaining to mental, but not physical, HRQoL and lower dementia incidence were observed. Lower mental HRQoL precedes dementia diagnosis in middle-aged and older British adults.

Epidemiology of major trauma in older adults within Scotland: A national perspective from the Scottish Trauma Audit Group (STAG).

BACKGROUND: Major trauma in older adults (MTOA) poses distinctive health and social care challenges, further underlined by the unique socioeconomic and geographical environment of Scotland. This study provides epidemiological trends of MTOA, to provide insight into areas where further evaluation and research are required. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Pseudonymised aggregated demographic, injury and outcome data from 2011 to 2020 were obtained from the Scottish Trauma Audit Group (STAG) Database, covering 28 hospitals across Scotland. Only individuals age ≥ 70 with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 15 were included. RESULTS: There was an average of 216 annual cases of MTOA, with a 259 % rise in incidence from 2011 to 2020. This was predominantly driven by a rise in low velocity trauma (fall <2 m height; 287 % increase). The proportion of all major trauma attributable to those aged ≥70 rose from 18.5 % in 2011 to 34.6 % in 2020. Death censored median (IQR) acute hospital length of stay was 18 days (9-30). Overall, 30-day survival was 65.3 %, with no improvement seen between 2011 and 2020 (p = 0.50). Independent predictors of improved 30-day survival included Ages 70-79 & 80-89 [compared to reference ≥ 90] (OR 3.12; 95 %CI 2.24,4.31; p < 0.001 and OR 1.66; 95 %CI 1.21,2.29; p = 0.002 respectively), and Extremity injury (OR 1.89; 95 %CI 1.48,2.41; p < 0.001). Head injury (OR 0.72; 95 %CI 0.54,0.96; p = 0.027) and increasing ISS score (OR 0.88, 95 %CI 0.86,0.89; p < 0.001) were associated with lower likelihood of 30-day survival. A further model also including the admission ward (from eSTAG data November 2017 onwards) demonstrated an association with reduced 30-day survival with admission to General Surgery (OR 0.42; 95 %CI 0.19,0.93; p = 0.033), Intensive Care (OR 0.25; 95 %CI 0.10,0.60; p = 0.002) and Medical Specialities (OR 0.33; 95 %CI 0.15,0.73; p = 0.007) compared to the reference (Major Trauma). Exponential Smoothing predictions revealed a further potential 184 % rise in incidence of MTOA from 2021 to 2030 (3657 per 100,000 population at risk to 10,392 per 100,000 population at risk). CONCLUSION: MTOA is likely to be a rising health care burden, requiring larger quantities of health and social care resource. Urgent preventative strategies are required to reduce low velocity trauma (standing height falls), as well as the high mortality and morbidity of MTOA.

Poor outcomes in patients with sepsis undergoing emergency laparotomy and laparoscopy are attenuated by faster time to care measures.

AIM: Emergency laparotomy and laparoscopy (EmLap) are amongst the commonest surgical procedures, with high prevalence of sepsis and hence poorer outcomes. However, whether time taken to receive care influences outcomes in patients requiring antibiotics for suspected infection remains largely unexplored. The aim of this work was to determine whether (1) time to care contributes to outcome differences between patients with and without suspected infection and (2) its impact on outcomes only amongst those with suspected infection. METHOD: Clinical information was retrospectively obtained from the 2017-2018 Emergency Laparotomy and Laparoscopic Scottish Audit (ELLSA). Time to care referred to six temporal variables describing radiological investigation, anaesthetic triage and surgical management. Outcome measures [mortality, readmission, hospital death, postoperative destination and length of stay (LoS)] were compared using adjusted and unadjusted regression analyses to determine whether the outcome differences could be explained by faster or slower time to care. RESULTS: Amongst 2243 EmLap patients [median age 65 years (interquartile range 51-75 years), 51.1% female], 892 (39.77%) received antibiotics for suspected infection. Although patients with suspected infection had faster time to care (all p ≤ 0.001) and worse outcomes compared with those who did not, outcome differences were not statistically significant when accounted for time (all p > 0.050). Amongst those who received antibiotics, faster time to care was also associated with decreased risk of postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) stay and shorter LoS (all p < 0.050). CONCLUSION: Worse outcomes associated with infection in EmLap patients were attenuated by faster time to care, which additionally reduced the LoS and ICU stay risk amongst those with suspected infection.

Prevalence, characteristics and mortality of cancer patients undergoing pericardiocentesis in the United States between 2004 and 2017.

BACKGROUND: Pericardiocentesis is undertaken in patients with cancer for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes. However, there are limited data on the frequency, characteristics and mortality of patients with different cancers undergoing pericardiocentesis. METHODS: All hospitalisations of adult cancer patients (≥18 years) in the US National Inpatient Sample between January 2004 and December 2017 were included. The cohort was stratified by discharge code of pericardiocentesis and cancer, using the International Classification of Diseases. The prevalence of pericardiocentesis, patient characteristics, cancer types and in-hospital all-cause mortality were analysed between cancer patients undergoing pericardiocentesis versus not. RESULTS: A total of 19,773,597 weighted cancer discharges were analysed, out of which 18,847 (0.1%) underwent pericardiocentesis. The most common cancer types amongst the patients receiving pericardiocentesis were lung (51.3%), haematological (15.9%), breast (5.4%), mediastinum/heart (3.2%), gastroesophageal (2.2%) and female genital cancer (1.8%), whilst 'other' cancer types were present in 20.2% patients. Patients undergoing pericardiocentesis had significantly higher mortality (15.6% vs. 4.2%, p < 0.001) compared to their counterparts. The presence of metastatic disease (aOR 2.67 95% CI 1.79-3.97), weight loss (aOR 1.48 95% CI 1.33-1.65) and coagulopathy (aOR 3.22 95% CI 1.63-6.37) were each independently associated with higher mortality in patients who underwent pericardiocentesis. CONCLUSION: Pericardiocentesis is an infrequent procedure in cancer patients and is most commonly performed in patients with lung, haematological and breast cancer. Cancer patients undergoing pericardiocentesis have increased mortality, irrespective of the underlying cancer type.

Association between Legume Consumption and Risk of Hypertension in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk Cohort.

Hypertension is a significant and preventable cardiovascular disease risk factor. Growing evidence suggests legumes have blood-pressure (BP) lowering properties. However, there is little population-based research on legume intake and hypertension risk in Western populations. The objective was to investigate the relationship between legume intake and blood pressure by using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Norfolk cohort. Further, to identify any potential legume intake that confers benefits in relation to blood pressure. We included participants who completed both 7-day food diaries to assess legume intake and undertook a first (1993−1997) and second (1998−2000) health check from the EPIC-Norfolk prospective study. Legume consumption was categorized using percentile cut off values. We used multivariate logistic regression models to calculate the odds ratio of hypertension (defined as >140 mmHg systolic and/or >90 mmHg diastolic blood pressure) at the second health check, stratified by legume intake, adjusting for antihypertensive medication use and demographic, socioeconomic and lifestyle covariates. A total of 7522 participants were included with mean age (± SD) of 58.0 ± 8.9 years. The follow-up time was 3.7 years (range: 2.1−6.6 years). Mean legume consumption was 17.3 ± 16.3 g/day. Participants in the 97th percentile of legume intake had the lowest odds of subsequent hypertension (OR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.52, 0.96). Legume consumption between 55−70 g/day was associated with reduced odds of hypertension (OR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.37, 0.88); sex-specific values for men and women were 0.64 (0.38, 1.03) and 0.32 (0.12, 0.88), respectively. In this UK population, legume intake of 55−70 g/day was associated with a lower subsequent risk of hypertension. Given the low legume intake in the UK and Western countries, dietary guidance to increase intake above 55 g/day may lower the burden of hypertension and associated diseases.

Biomarker Determinants of Early Anthracycline-Induced Left Ventricular Dysfunction in Breast Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality amongst women. One of the most common chemotherapeutic agents used to treat breast cancer, anthracyclines, are associated with anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity (ACIC). The aim of this meta-analysis was to quantify the predictive performance of biomarkers for early ACIC presentation in the breast cancer population. METHODS: Five databases were searched from inception to 1 January, 2022. Studies reporting the association between worsening left ventricular ejection fraction and biomarker level change were included. Overall, study heterogeneity varied between I2 0 and 78%. The primary outcome was incident left ventricular dysfunction, defined as left ventricular ejection fraction < 50-55% or a 10%-point decrease, in patients with breast cancer with congruent ≥ doubling of biomarker serology levels (growth differentiation factor 15, Galectin-3, pro B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, placental growth factor, myeloperoxidase, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, Fms-Related Tyrosine Kinase 1), 3 months after anthracycline exposure, relative to pre-anthracycline exposure levels, expressed as random effects, hazard ratios. The STRING protein interaction database was explored for experimentally validated biomarker interactions. RESULTS: Of 1458 records screened, four observational studies involving 1167 patients, with a low risk of bias, were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Doubling of growth differentiation factor 15 and Galectin-3 levels was associated with an increased risk of early ACIC, hazard ratio 3.74 (95% confidence interval 2.68-5.24) and hazard ratio 4.25 (95% confidence interval 3.1-5.18), respectively. Biomarker interactome analysis identified two putative ACIC biomarkers, neuropilin-1 and complement factor H. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first meta-analysis quantifying the association of biomarkers and early ACIC presentation in the breast cancer population. This may be of clinical relevance in the timely identification of patients at high risk of ACIC, allowing for closer monitoring and chemotherapy adjustments.

Prevalence of orthostatic hypertension and its association with cerebrovascular diagnoses in patients with suspected TIA and minor stroke.

PURPOSE: We aimed to compare the rate of stroke, transient ischemic attack, and cerebrovascular disease diagnoses across groups of patients based on their orthostatic blood pressure response in a transients ischemic attack clinic setting. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analysed prospectively collected data from 3201 patients referred to a transient ischemic attack (TIA)/minor stroke outpatients clinic. Trained nurses measured supine and standing blood pressure using an automated blood pressure device and the patients were categorized based on their orthostatic blood pressure change into four groups: no orthostatic blood pressure rise, systolic orthostatic hypertension, diastolic orthostatic hypertension, and combined orthostatic hypertension. Then, four stroke physicians, who were unaware of patients' orthostatic BP response, assessed the patients and made diagnoses based on clinical and imaging data. We compared the rate of stroke, TIA, and cerebrovascular disease (either stroke or TIA) diagnoses across the study groups using Pearson's χ2 test. The effect of confounders was adjusted using a multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Cerebrovascular disease was significantly less common in patients with combined systolic and diastolic orthostatic hypertension compared to the "no rise" group [OR = 0.56 (95% CI 0.35-0.89]. The odds were even lower among the subgroups of patients with obesity [OR = 0.31 (0.12-0.80)], without history of smoking [OR 0.34 (0.15-0.80)], and without hypertension [OR = 0.42 (95% CI 0.19-0.92)]. We found no significant relationship between orthostatic blood pressure rise with the diagnosis of stroke. However, the odds of TIA were significantly lower in patients with diastolic [OR 0.82 (0.68-0.98)] and combined types of orthostatic hypertension [OR = 0.54 (0.32-0.93)]; especially in patients younger than 65 years [OR = 0.17 (0.04-0.73)] without a history of hypertension [OR = 0.34 (0.13-0.91)], and patients who did not take antihypertensive therapy [OR = 0.35 (0.14-0.86)]. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that orthostatic hypertension may be a protective factor for TIA among younger and normotensive patients.

Higher anticholinergic burden from medications is associated with significant increase in markers of inflammation in the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Higher medication anticholinergic burden is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline. A mechanistic pathway has not been established. We aimed to determine whether inflammation may mediate these associations. METHODS: Participants were drawn from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer, Norfolk cohort (40-79 years at baseline). Anticholinergic burden score (ACB) was calculated at first (1HC) (1993/97) and second (2HC) (1998/2000) health checks. Fibrinogen and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured during 1HC and tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) during 2HC. Cross-sectional associations between ACB and inflammatory markers were examined for both health checks. Prospective associations were also examined between 1HC ACB and 2HC inflammatory markers. Models were adjusted for age, sex, lifestyle factors, comorbidities and medications. RESULTS: In total, 17 678 and 22 051 participants were included in cross-sectional analyses for CRP, and fibrinogen, respectively. Furthermore, 5101 participants with data on TNF-α and IL-6 were included in the prospective analyses. Cross-sectionally, compared to ACB = 0, ACB ≥ 4 was associated with higher fibrinogen, beta (95% confidence interval) = 0.134 g/L (0.070, 0.199), CRP 1.175 mg/L (0.715, 1.634), IL-6 0.593 pg/mL (0.254, 0.932) and TNF-α 0.137 pg/mL (0.033, 0.241). In addition, a point increase in ACB was associated with higher levels of all markers. Prospectively, compared to ACB = 0, ACB ≥ 4 was associated with higher IL-6(pg/mL) of 0.019 (-0.323, 0.361) and TNF-α (pg/mL) of 0.202% (0.81, 0.323). A unit increase in ACB was associated with a significantly higher TNF-α and IL-6. CONCLUSION: Higher ACB was associated with higher inflammatory markers. Inflammation may mediate the relationship between anticholinergic medications and adverse outcomes.

Multiple house occupancy is associated with mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries mandated staying at home to reduce transmission. This study examined the association between living arrangements (house occupancy numbers) and outcomes in COVID-19. METHODS: Study population was drawn from the COPE study, a multicentre cohort study. House occupancy was defined as: living alone; living with one other person; living with multiple other people; or living in a nursing/residential home. Outcomes were time from admission to mortality and discharge (Cox regression), and Day 28 mortality (logistic regression) analyses were adjusted for key comorbidities and covariates including admission: age, sex, smoking, heart failure, admission C-reactive protein (CRP), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate, frailty and others. RESULTS: A total of 1584 patients were included from 13 hospitals across UK and Italy: 676 (42.7%) were female, 907 (57.3%) were male, median age was 74 years (range: 19-101). At 28 days, 502 (31.7%) had died. Median admission CRP was 67, 82, 79.5 and 83 mg/l for those living alone, with someone else, in a house of multiple occupancy and in a nursing/residential home, respectively. Compared to living alone, living with anyone was associated with increased mortality: within a couple [adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) = 1.39, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.09-1.77, P = 0.007]; living in a house of multiple occupancy (aHR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.17-2.38, P = 0.005); and living in a residential home (aHR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.03-1.80, P = 0.031). CONCLUSION: For patients hospitalized with COVID-19, those living with one or more people had an increased association with mortality, they also exhibited higher CRP indicating increased disease severity suggesting they delayed seeking care.

Long Term Prognostic Impact of Sex-specific Longitudinal Changes in Blood Pressure. The EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Cohort Study.

AIMS: We aimed to determine the sex differences in longitudinal systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) trajectories in mid-life and delineate the associations between these and mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular, and non-cardiovascular) and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in old age. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants were selected from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer, Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study. Sex-specific trajectories were determined using group-based trajectory models using three clinic BP measurements acquired between 1993 and 2012 (mean exposure ∼12.9 years). Multivariable Cox regressions determined the associations between trajectories and incident outcomes over the follow-up (median follow-up 9.4 years). A total of 2897 men (M) and 3819 women (F) were included. At baseline, women were younger (F-55.5, M-57.1), had a worse cardiometabolic profile and were less likely to receive primary CVD prevention including antihypertensive treatment (F-36.0%, M-42.0%). Over the exposure period, women had lower SBP trajectories while men exhibited more pronounced SBP decreases over this period. Over the follow-up period, women had lower mortality (F-11.9%, M-20.5%) and CVD incidence (F-19.8%, M-29.6%). Compared to optimal SBP (≤120 mmHg) and DBP (≤70 mmHg) trajectories, hypertensive trajectories were associated with increased mortality and incident CVD in both men and women during follow-up at univariable level. These associations were nevertheless not maintained upon extensive confounder adjustment including antihypertensive therapies. CONCLUSION: We report sex disparities in CVD prevention which may relate to worse cardiometabolic profiles and less pronounced longitudinal SBP decreases in women. Effective anti-hypertensivetherapy may offset the adverse outcomes associated with prolonged exposure to high blood pressure.

Predicting 10-year stroke mortality: development and validation of a nomogram.

Predicting long-term stroke mortality is a clinically important and unmet need. We aimed to develop and internally validate a 10-year ischaemic stroke mortality prediction score. In this UK cohort study, 10,366 patients with first-ever ischaemic stroke between January 2003 and December 2016 were followed up for a median (interquartile range) of 5.47 (2.96-9.15) years. A Cox proportional-hazards model was used to predict 10-year post-admission mortality. The predictors associated with 10-year mortality included age, sex, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), pre-stroke modified Rankin Score, admission haemoglobin, sodium, white blood cell count and comorbidities (atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, heart failure, cancer, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, liver disease and peripheral vascular disease). The model was internally validated using bootstrap resampling to assess optimism in discrimination and calibration. A nomogram was created to facilitate application of the score at the point of care. Mean age (SD) was 78.5 ± 10.9 years, 52% female. Most strokes were partial anterior circulation syndromes (38%). 10-year mortality predictors were: total anterior circulation stroke (hazard ratio, 95% confidence intervals) (2.87, 2.62-3.14), eGFR < 15 (1.97, 1.55-2.52), 1-year increment in age (1.04, 1.04-1.05), liver disease (1.50, 1.20-1.87), peripheral vascular disease (1.39, 1.23-1.57), cancers (1.37, 1.27-1.47), heart failure (1.24, 1.15-1.34), 1-point increment in pre-stroke mRS (1.20, 1.17-1.22), atrial fibrillation (1.17, 1.10-1.24), coronary heart disease (1.09, 1.02-1.16), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.13, 1.03-1.25) and hypertension (0.77, 0.72-0.82). Upon internal validation, the optimism-adjusted c-statistic was 0.76 and calibration slope was 0.98. Our 10-year mortality model uses routinely collected point-of-care information. It is the first 10-year mortality score in stroke. While the model was internally validated, further external validation is also warranted.

The influence of hospital-level variables on hip fracture outcomes.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to determine the impact of hospital-level service characteristics on hip fracture outcomes and quality of care processes measures. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of publicly available audit data obtained from the National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) 2018 benchmark summary and Facilities Survey. Data extraction was performed using a dedicated proforma to identify relevant hospital-level care process and outcome variables for inclusion. The primary outcome measure was adjusted 30-day mortality rate. A random forest-based multivariate imputation by chained equation (MICE) algorithm was used for missing value imputation. Univariable analysis for each hospital level factor was performed using a combination of Tobit regression, Siegal non-parametric linear regression, and Mann-Whitney U test analyses, dependent on the data type. In all analyses, a p-value < 0.05 denoted statistical significance. RESULTS: Analyses included 176 hospitals, with a median of 366 hip fracture cases per year (interquartile range (IQR) 280 to 457). Aggregated data from 66,578 patients were included. The only identified hospital-level variable associated with the primary outcome of 30-day mortality was hip fracture trial involvement (no trial involvement: median 6.3%; trial involvement: median 5.7%; p = 0.039). Significant key associations were also identified between prompt surgery and presence of dedicated hip fracture sessions; reduced acute length of stay and both a higher number of hip fracture cases per year and more dedicated hip fracture operating lists; Best Practice Tariff attainment and greater number of hip fracture cases per year, more dedicated hip fracture operating lists, presence of a dedicated hip fracture ward, and hip fracture trial involvement. CONCLUSION: Exploratory analyses have identified that improved outcomes in hip fracture may be associated with hospital-level service characteristics, such as hip fracture research trial involvement, larger hip fracture volumes, and the use of theatre lists dedicated to hip fracture surgery. Further research using patient level data is warranted to corroborate these findings. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(10):1627-1632.

Association between serum secretory phospholipase A2 and risk of ischaemic stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previous literature has demonstrated an association between high serum levels of type II secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2) concentration and an increased risk of coronary artery disease. However, such association has not been established in terms of ischaemic stroke risk. The aim was to evaluate the association between both sPLA2 concentration and activity as continuous variables with risk of future ischaemic stroke. METHODS: A nested case-control study was conducted using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk study. Cases (n = 145) in the current study were participants who developed ischaemic stroke during follow-up, with controls (n = 290) matched in a 2:1 ratio based on age and sex. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS (version 25.0) software. Logistic regression was used to determine odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for ischaemic stroke. RESULTS: After adjusting for a wide array of cardiovascular confounders, sPLA2 activity was found to be associated with an increased risk of ischaemic stroke using both multiple imputations with chained equations and complete case analysis: OR 1.20 (95% CI 1.01-1.43) and OR 1.23 (95% CI 1.01-1.49), respectively. However, sPLA2 concentration was not found to be associated with increased risk of ischaemic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: The activity of sPLA2, but not sPLA2 concentration, is associated with an increased risk of future ischaemic stroke. This finding may be significant in risk group stratification, allowing targeted prophylactic treatment, or the development of novel therapeutic agents.

Prognosis of Acute Ischaemic Stroke Patients with Cancer: A National Inpatient Sample Study.

Whilst cancer is a risk factor for acute ischaemic stroke (AIS), its impact on AIS prognosis between metastatic and non-metastatic (MC and NMC) disease is poorly understood. Furthermore, the receipt of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and endovascular thrombectomy (ET) and their outcomes is poorly researched. AIS admissions from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) were included (October 2015-December 2017). Multivariable logistic regressions adjusting for a wide range of confounders analysed the relationship between NMC and MC and AIS in-hospital outcomes (mortality, prolonged hospitalisation >4 days and routine home discharge). Interaction terms with IVT and ET were also computed to explore their impact amongst cancer patients. A total of 221,249 records representative of 1,106,045 admissions were included. There were 38,855 (3.51%) AIS admissions with co-morbid cancer: NMC = 53.78% and MC = 46.22%. NMC was associated with 23% increased odds of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.23 (1.07-1.42)), which was mainly driven by pancreatic and respiratory cancers. This association was entirely offset by both IVT and ET. MC was associated with two-fold increased odds of in-hospital mortality (2.16 (1.90-2.45)), which was mainly driven by respiratory, pancreatic and colorectal cancers. This association was only offset by ET. Both NMC and MC were significantly associated with prolonged hospitalisation and decreased odds of routine discharge. Cancer patients are at higher odds of acute adverse outcomes after AIS and warrant robust primary prevention. IVT and ET improve these outcomes and should thus be offered routinely unless otherwise contraindicated in this group of stroke patients.

Anticholinergic burden in older adult inpatients: patterns from admission to discharge and associations with hospital outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Anticholinergic medications are associated with adverse outcomes in older adults and should be prescribed cautiously. We describe the Anticholinergic Risk Scale (ARS) scores of older inpatients and associations with outcomes. METHODS: We included all emergency, first admissions of adults ⩾65 years old admitted to one hospital over 4 years. Demographics, discharge specialty, dementia/history of cognitive concern, illness acuity and medications were retrieved from electronic records. ARS scores were calculated as the sum of anticholinergic potential for each medication (0 = limited/none; 1 = moderate; 2 = strong and 3 = very strong). We categorised patients based on admission ARS score [ARS = 0 (reference); ARS = 1; ARS = 2; ARS ⩾ 3] and change in ARS score from admission to discharge [admission and discharge ARS = 0 (reference); same; decreased; increased]. We described anticholinergic prescribing patterns by discharge specialty and explored multivariable associations between ARS score categories and mortality using logistic regression [odds ratios (ORs), 95% confidence intervals (CIs)]. RESULTS: From 33,360 patients, 10,183 (31%) were prescribed an anticholinergic medication on admission. Mean admission ARS scores were: Cardiology and Stroke = 0.56; General Medicine = 0.78; Geriatric Medicine = 0.83; Other medicine = 0.81; Trauma and Orthopaedics = 0.66; Other Surgery = 0.65. Mean ARS did not increase from admission to discharge in any specialty but reductions varied significantly, from 4.6% (Other Surgery) to 27.7% (Geriatric Medicine) (p < 0.001). The odds of both 30-day inpatient and 30-day post-discharge mortality increased with admission ARS = 1 (OR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.01-1.44 and OR = 1.44, 1.18-1.74) but not with ARS = 2 or ARS ⩾ 3. The odds of 30-day post-discharge mortality were higher in all ARS change categories, relative to no anticholinergic exposure (same: OR = 1.45, 1.21-1.74, decreased: OR = 1.27, 1.01-1.57, increased: OR = 2.48, 1.98-3.08). CONCLUSION: The inconsistent dose-response associations with mortality may be due to confounding and measurement error which may be addressed by a prospective trial. Definitive evidence for this prevalent modifiable risk factor is required to support clinician behaviour-change, thus reducing variation in anticholinergic deprescribing by inpatient speciality. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: We describe how commonly medicines which block the chemical acetylcholine are prescribed to older adults admitted to hospital as an emergency and explore links between these medicines and death during or soon after hospital admission Backgroud: Medicines which block the chemical acetylcholine are commonly prescribed to treat symptoms such as itch and difficulty sleeping or to treat medical conditions such as depression. However, some studies in older adults have found potential links between these medicines and confusion and falls. Therefore, doctors are recommended to prescribe these drugs cautiously in adults aged 65 years and over.Methods: In our paper we use data collected as part of routine medical care at one university hospital to describe how often these medicines are prescribed in a large sample of older adults admitted to hospital as an emergency. We look at the medicines patients are prescribed on admission to the hospital and also when they are later discharged.Results: We find that these medicines are frequently prescribed. We also find that, in general, patients are prescribed fewer of these potentially harmful medicines on hospital discharge compared with hospital admission. This suggests that clinicians are aware of advice to prescribe acetylcholine blocking medicines cautiously and they are more often stopped in hospital than started. However, we find a lot of variation in practice depending on which hospital specialty was caring for the patient during their inpatient stay. We also find potential links with these medicines and death during the admission or soon after hospital discharge, but these potential links are not always consistent.Conclusion: Further study is needed to fully understand links between medicines that block acetylcholine and late life health. This will be important to reduce variation in prescribing practices.

Country-level determinants of the severity of the first global wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: an ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify the country-level determinants of the severity of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Ecological study of publicly available data. Countries reporting >25 COVID-19 related deaths until 8 June 2020 were included. The outcome was log mean mortality rate from COVID-19, an estimate of the country-level daily increase in reported deaths during the ascending phase of the epidemic curve. Potential determinants assessed were most recently published demographic parameters (population and population density, percentage population living in urban areas, population >65 years, average body mass index and smoking prevalence); economic parameters (gross domestic product per capita); environmental parameters (pollution levels and mean temperature (January-May); comorbidities (prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and cancer); health system parameters (WHO Health Index and hospital beds per 10 000 population); international arrivals; the stringency index, as a measure of country-level response to COVID-19; BCG vaccination coverage; UV radiation exposure; and testing capacity. Multivariable linear regression was used to analyse the data. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Country-level mean mortality rate: the mean slope of the COVID-19 mortality curve during its ascending phase. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-seven countries were included: Algeria, Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the UK and the USA. RESULTS: Of all country-level determinants included in the multivariable model, total number of international arrivals (beta 0.033 (95% CI 0.012 to 0.054)) and BCG vaccination coverage (-0.018 (95% CI -0.034 to -0.002)), were significantly associated with the natural logarithm of the mean death rate. CONCLUSIONS: International travel was directly associated with the mortality slope and thus potentially the spread of COVID-19. Very early restrictions on international travel should be considered to control COVID-19 outbreaks and prevent related deaths.