Nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence in patients with adenoid cystic carcinoma. An international collaborative study.

BACKGROUND: Due to the rarity of adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC), information on outcome is based upon small retrospective case series. The aim of our study was to create a large multiinstitutional international dataset of patients with ACC in order to design predictive nomograms for outcome. METHODS: ACC patients managed at 10 international centers were identified. Patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics were recorded and an international collaborative dataset created. Multivariable competing risk models were then built to predict the 10 year recurrence free probability (RFP), distant recurrence free probability (DRFP), overall survival (OS) and cancer specific mortality (CSM). All predictors of interest were added in the starting full models before selection, including age, gender, tumor site, clinical T stage, perineural invasion, margin status, pathologic N-status, and M-status. Stepdown method was used in model selection to choose predictive variables. An external dataset of 99 patients from 2 other institutions was used to validate the nomograms. FINDINGS: Of 438 ACC patients, 27.2% (119/438) died from ACC and 38.8% (170/438) died of other causes. Median follow-up was 56 months (range 1-306). The nomogram for OS had 7 variables (age, gender, clinical T stage, tumor site, margin status, pathologic N-status and M-status) with a concordance index (CI) of 0.71. The nomogram for CSM had the same variables, except margin status, with a concordance index (CI) of 0.70. The nomogram for RFP had 7 variables (age, gender, clinical T stage, tumor site, margin status, pathologic N status and perineural invasion) (CI 0.66). The nomogram for DRFP had 6 variables (gender, clinical T stage, tumor site, pathologic N-status, perineural invasion and margin status) (CI 0.64). Concordance index for the external validation set were 0.76, 0.72, 0.67 and 0.70 respectively. INTERPRETATION: Using an international collaborative database we have created the first nomograms which estimate outcome in individual patients with ACC. These predictive nomograms will facilitate patient counseling in terms of prognosis and subsequent clinical follow-up. They will also identify high risk patients who may benefit from clinical trials on new targeted therapies for patients with ACC. FUNDING: None.

Adenoid cystic carcinoma of the nasal cavity and paranasal sinuses: a meta-analysis.

Objectives To identify independent predictors of outcome in patients with adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) of the paranasal sinuses and skull base. Design Meta-analysis of the literature and data from the International ACC Study Group. Setting University-affiliated medical center. Participants The study group consisted of 520 patients, 99 of them from the international cohort. The median follow-up period was 60 months (range, 32 to 100 months). Main Outcome Measures Overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). Results The 5-year OS and DSS of the entire cohort were 62% and 67%, respectively. The local recurrence rate was 36.6%, and the regional recurrence rate was 7%. Distant metastasis, most commonly present in the lung, was recorded in 106 patients (29.1%). In the international cohort, positive margins and ACC of the sphenoid or ethmoidal sinuses were significant predictors of outcome (p < 0.001). Perineural invasion and adjuvant treatment (radiotherapy or chemoradiation) were not associated with prognosis. Conclusion Tumor margin status and tumor site are associated with prognosis in ACC of the paranasal sinuses, whereas perineural invasion is not. Adjuvant treatment apparently has no impact on outcome.