[The evolution and prediction of the incidence of breast cancer in Zaragoza, 1961-2000]. / Evolución y predicción de la incidencia de cáncer de mama en Zaragoza, 1961-2000.

BACKGROUND: Using the data available from the Cancer Registry of Zaragoza, the incidence of breast cancer in women from 1961 to 1985 was analyzed with future evolution being predicted up to the year 2000. METHODS: The age, period and birth cohort effects, in addition to the place of residence (capital/rest of province) were analyzed using both, graphic analysis techniques and multivariate models of incidence rates by the Poisson regression. Assuming a constant period effect, the age and cohort effects were used to predict incidence rates in a period of 15 years between 1986 and 2000. RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence rates increased from 17.1 cases per 100,000 women per year in 1961-1965 to 36.5 in 1981-1985. This increase was mainly observed in women above the age of 40 residing in an urban environment. In a graphic analysis of rates by birth cohorts, an age and cohort effects were observed, producing an anticipation of age to which the highest values in incidence rates were reached. In the prediction of incidence with multivariate models, and increase is foreseen up to the year 2000. CONCLUSIONS: An increase of breast cancer incidence in Zaragoza has been observed with a further increase foreseen up to the year 2000. This increasing incidence has been related to the age, the year of birth and the place of residence of cases. A relation with some other determinants of disease, and whether the results observed may be extrapolated to the rest of Spain are discussed.

[Geographic study of cancer of the stomach in Spain in relation to agricultural activities]. / Estudio geográfico del cáncer gástrico en España en relación con actividades agrarias.

The Spanish provinces with the highest risk of gastric cancer (CG) are in the Castilian meseta, where grain raising predominates. In other countries, high risk areas also correspond to inland, high altitude regions, and in some cases, like Chile, abundant fertilizer consumption. The present study attempts to relate the risk of this tumor in Spain to different types of agricultural activity. Pearson's linear correlation coefficient was calculated between the mortality rate due to gastric cancer in each of the 50 Spanish provinces and the different types of farming and cattle raising activities. The correlation with grain raising on nonirrigated land was positive and significant for mortality in both men (p less than 0.001) and women (p less than 0.01). The correlation between mortality from gastric cancer and cattle raising, particularly sheep, was also positive and significant in both sexes (p less than 0.001). The proportion of the irrigated and nonirrigated fields dedicated to fruit trees correlated negatively with mortality in both sexes, also with a significant difference (p less than 0.01). The authors suggest the need for further epidemiological investigation in Spain, particularly in areas of high risk of gastric cancer, to identify precisely the risk factors that could be related to agricultural activities.

[The role of cancer registries in the planning of primary care. A special reference to the Calatayud health area]. / El papel de los registros de cáncer en la planificación de la asistencia primaria. Referencia especial al sector de salud de Calatayud.

The present study is based on the analysis of records concerning 2,123 cases of cancer registered between 1973 and 1982 in the Health Sector of Calatayud. We pretend to find out what sort of role is played by the gathered cancer information registries on the Community Health Diagnosis elaboration and, therefore, on the Primary Care Planning. An important loss of cases (23% in men and 13% in women) and a clear influence of socioeconomic factors concerning Epidemiology and even Cancer Care are remarked. Delay times of diagnosis are higher than on the other series: breast (17.4 months), skin (39.9 months), larynx (7.7 months). A preferential care about the improvement of the Sanitary Education of population, their accessibility to Sanitary System and medical praxis of the Primary Care professionals are proposed.