A prognostic molecular signature of hepatic steatosis is spatially heterogeneous and dynamic in human liver.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) prevalence is increasing in parallel with an obesity pandemic, calling for novel strategies for prevention and treatment. We defined a circulating proteome of human MASLD across ≈7000 proteins in ≈5000 individuals from diverse, at-risk populations across the metabolic health spectrum, demonstrating reproducible diagnostic performance and specifying both known and novel metabolic pathways relevant to MASLD (central carbon and amino acid metabolism, hepatocyte regeneration, inflammation, fibrosis, insulin sensitivity). A parsimonious proteomic signature of MASLD was associated with a protection from MASLD and its related multi-system metabolic consequences in >26000 free-living individuals, with an additive effect to polygenic risk. The MASLD proteome was encoded by genes that demonstrated transcriptional enrichment in liver, with spatial transcriptional activity in areas of steatosis in human liver biopsy and dynamicity for select targets in human liver across stages of steatosis. We replicated several top relations from proteomics and spatial tissue transcriptomics in a humanized "liver-on-a-chip" model of MASLD, highlighting the power of a full translational approach to discovery in MASLD. Collectively, these results underscore utility of blood-based proteomics as a dynamic "liquid biopsy" of human liver relevant to clinical biomarker and mechanistic applications.

Circulating metabolites may illustrate relationship of alcohol consumption with cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Metabolite signatures of long-term alcohol consumption are lacking. To better understand the molecular basis linking alcohol drinking and cardiovascular disease (CVD), we investigated circulating metabolites associated with long-term alcohol consumption and examined whether these metabolites were associated with incident CVD. METHODS: Cumulative average alcohol consumption (g/day) was derived from the total consumption of beer, wine, and liquor on average of 19 years in 2428 Framingham Heart Study Offspring participants (mean age 56 years, 52% women). We used linear mixed models to investigate the associations of alcohol consumption with 211 log-transformed plasma metabolites, adjusting for age, sex, batch, smoking, diet, physical activity, BMI, and familial relationship. Cox models were used to test the association of alcohol-related metabolite scores with fatal and nonfatal incident CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure). RESULTS: We identified 60 metabolites associated with cumulative average alcohol consumption (p < 0.05/211 ≈ 0.00024). For example, 1 g/day increase of alcohol consumption was associated with higher levels of cholesteryl esters (e.g., CE 16:1, beta = 0.023 ± 0.002, p = 6.3e - 45) and phosphatidylcholine (e.g., PC 32:1, beta = 0.021 ± 0.002, p = 3.1e - 38). Survival analysis identified that 10 alcohol-associated metabolites were also associated with a differential CVD risk after adjusting for age, sex, and batch. Further, we built two alcohol consumption weighted metabolite scores using these 10 metabolites and showed that, with adjustment age, sex, batch, and common CVD risk factors, the two scores had comparable but opposite associations with incident CVD, hazard ratio 1.11 (95% CI = [1.02, 1.21], p = 0.02) vs 0.88 (95% CI = [0.78, 0.98], p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: We identified 60 long-term alcohol consumption-associated metabolites. The association analysis with incident CVD suggests a complex metabolic basis between alcohol consumption and CVD.

Obesity-Related Biomarkers Are Associated With Exercise Intolerance and HFpEF.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and adiposity are associated with an increased risk of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF); yet, specific underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We sought to examine the association of obesity-related biomarkers including adipokines (leptin, resistin, adiponectin), inflammatory markers (CRP [C-reactive protein], IL-6 [interleukin-6]), and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) with HFpEF status, exercise capacity, and cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: We studied 509 consecutive patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50% and chronic dyspnea, who underwent clinically indicated cardiopulmonary exercise test with invasive hemodynamic monitoring between 2006 and 2017. We defined HFpEF based on the presence of elevated left ventricular filling pressures at rest or during exercise. Fasting blood samples collected at the time of the cardiopulmonary exercise test were used to assay obesity-related biomarkers. We examined the association of log-transformed biomarkers with HFpEF status and exercise traits using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models. RESULTS: We observed associations of obesity-related biomarkers with measures of impaired exercise capacity including peak VO2 (P≤0.002 for all biomarkers). The largest effect size was seen with leptin, where a 1-SD higher leptin was associated with a 2.35 mL/kg per min lower peak VO2 (ß, -2.35±0.19; P<0.001). In addition, specific biomarkers were associated with distinct measures of exercise reserve including blood pressure (homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance, leptin, adiponectin; P≤0.002 for all), and chronotropic response (CRP, IL-6, homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance, leptin, and resistin; P<0.05 for all). Our findings suggest that among the obesity-related biomarkers studied, higher levels of leptin and CRP are independently associated with increased odds of HFpEF, with odds ratios of 1.36 (95% CI, 1.09-1.70) and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.03-1.52), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Specific obesity-related pathways including inflammation, adipokine signaling, and insulin resistance may underlie the association of obesity with HFpEF and exercise intolerance.

Circulating Metabolites May Illustrate Relationship of Alcohol Consumption with Cardiovascular Disease.

Background: Metabolite signatures of long-term alcohol consumption are lacking. To better understand the molecular basis linking alcohol drinking and cardiovascular disease (CVD), we investigated circulating metabolites associated with long-term alcohol consumption and examined whether these metabolites were associated with incident CVD. Methods: Cumulative average alcohol consumption (g/day) was derived from the total consumption of beer, wine and liquor on average of 19 years in 2,428 Framingham Heart Study Offspring participants (mean age 56 years, 52% women). We used linear mixed models to investigate the associations of alcohol consumption with 211 log-transformed plasma metabolites, adjusting for age, sex, batch, smoking, diet, physical activity, BMI, and familial relationship. Cox models were used to test the association of alcohol-related metabolite scores with fatal and nonfatal incident CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure). Results: We identified 60 metabolites associated with cumulative average alcohol consumption (p<0.05/211≈0.00024). For example, one g/day increase of alcohol consumption was associated with higher levels of cholesteryl esters (e.g., CE 16:1, beta=0.023±0.002, p=6.3e-45) and phosphatidylcholine (e.g., PC 32:1, beta=0.021±0.002, p=3.1e-38). Survival analysis identified that 10 alcohol-associated metabolites were also associated with a differential CVD risk after adjusting for age, sex, and batch. Further, we built two alcohol consumption weighted metabolite scores using these 10 metabolites and showed that, with adjustment age, sex, batch, and common CVD risk factors, the two scores had comparable but opposite associations with incident CVD, hazard ratio 1.11(95% CI=[1.02, 1.21],p=0.02) vs 0.88 (95% CI=[0.78, 0.98], p=0.02). Summary: We identified 60 long-term alcohol consumption-associated metabolites. The association analysis with incident CVD suggests a complex metabolic basis between alcohol consumption and CVD.

Response of circulating metabolites to an oral glucose challenge and risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in the community.

BACKGROUND: New biomarkers to identify cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk earlier in its course are needed to enable targeted approaches for primordial prevention. We evaluated whether intraindividual changes in blood metabolites in response to an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) may provide incremental information regarding the risk of future CVD and mortality in the community. METHODS: An OGTT (75 g glucose) was administered to a subsample of Framingham Heart Study participants free from diabetes (n = 361). Profiling of 211 plasma metabolites was performed from blood samples drawn before and 2 h after OGTT. The log2(post/pre) metabolite levels (Δmetabolites) were related to incident CVD and mortality in Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, baseline metabolite level, systolic blood pressure, hypertension treatment, body mass index, smoking, and total/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Select metabolites were related to subclinical cardiometabolic phenotypes using Spearman correlations adjusted for age, sex, and fasting metabolite level. RESULTS: Our sample included 42% women, with a mean age of 56 ± 9 years and a body mass index of 30.2 ± 5.3 kg/m2. The pre- to post-OGTT changes (Δmetabolite) were non-zero for 168 metabolites (at FDR ≤ 5%). A total of 132 CVD events and 144 deaths occurred during median follow-up of 24.9 years. In Cox models adjusted for clinical risk factors, four Δmetabolites were associated with incident CVD (higher glutamate and deoxycholate, lower inosine and lysophosphatidylcholine 18:2) and six Δmetabolites (higher hydroxyphenylacetate, triacylglycerol 56:5, alpha-ketogluturate, and lower phosphatidylcholine 32:0, glucuronate, N-monomethyl-arginine) were associated with death (P < 0.05). Notably, baseline metabolite levels were not associated with either outcome in models excluding Δmetabolites. The Δmetabolites exhibited varying cross-sectional correlation with subclinical risk factors such as visceral adiposity, insulin resistance, and vascular stiffness, but overall relations were modest. Significant Δmetabolites included those with established roles in cardiometabolic disease (e.g., glutamate, alpha-ketoglutarate) and metabolites with less defined roles (e.g., glucuronate, lipid species). CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic changes in metabolite levels with an OGTT are associated with incident CVD and mortality and have potential relevance for identifying CVD risk earlier in its development and for discovering new potential therapeutic targets.

Association of obesity-related inflammatory pathways with lung function and exercise capacity.

BACKGROUND: Obesity has multifactorial effects on lung function and exercise capacity. The contributions of obesity-related inflammatory pathways to alterations in lung function remain unclear. RESEARCH QUESTION: To examine the association of obesity-related inflammatory pathways with pulmonary function, exercise capacity, and pulmonary-specific contributors to exercise intolerance. METHOD: We examined 695 patients who underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) with invasive hemodynamic monitoring at Massachusetts General Hospital between December 2006-June 2017. We investigated the association of adiponectin, leptin, resistin, IL-6, CRP, and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) with pulmonary function and exercise parameters using multivariable linear regression. RESULTS: Obesity-related inflammatory pathways were associated with worse lung function. Specifically, higher CRP, IL-6, and HOMA-IR were associated with lower percent predicted FEV1 and FVC with a preserved FEV1/FVC ratio suggesting a restrictive physiology pattern (P ≤ 0.001 for all). For example, a 1-SD higher natural-logged CRP level was associated with a nearly 5% lower percent predicted FEV1 and FVC (beta -4.8, s.e. 0.9 for FEV1; beta -4.9, s.e. 0.8 for FVC; P < 0.0001 for both). Obesity-related inflammatory pathways were associated with worse pulmonary vascular distensibility (adiponectin, IL-6, and CRP, P < 0.05 for all), as well as lower pulmonary artery compliance (IL-6 and CRP, P ≤ 0.01 for both). INTERPRETATION: Our findings highlight the importance of obesity-related inflammatory pathways including inflammation and insulin resistance on pulmonary spirometry and pulmonary vascular function. Specifically, systemic inflammation as ascertained by CRP, IL-6 and insulin resistance are associated with restrictive pulmonary physiology independent of BMI. In addition, inflammatory markers were associated with lower exercise capacity and pulmonary vascular dysfunction.

Multiomic Profiling in Black and White Populations Reveals Novel Candidate Pathways in Left Ventricular Hypertrophy and Incident Heart Failure Specific to Black Adults.

BACKGROUND: Increased left ventricular (LV) mass is associated with adverse cardiovascular events including heart failure (HF). Both increased LV mass and HF disproportionately affect Black individuals. To understand the underlying mechanisms, we undertook a proteomic screen in a Black cohort and compared the findings to results from a White cohort. METHODS: We measured 1305 plasma proteins using the SomaScan platform in 1772 Black participants (mean age, 56 years; 62% women) in JHS (Jackson Heart Study) with LV mass assessed by 2-dimensional echocardiography. Incident HF was assessed in 1600 participants. We then compared protein associations in JHS to those observed in White participants from FHS (Framingham Heart Study; mean age, 54 years; 56% women). RESULTS: In JHS, there were 110 proteins associated with LV mass and 13 proteins associated with incident HF hospitalization with false discovery rate <5% after multivariable adjustment. Several proteins showed expected associations with both LV mass and HF, including NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; ß=0.04; P=2×10-8; hazard ratio, 1.48; P=0.0001). The strongest association with LV mass was novel: LKHA4 (leukotriene-A4 hydrolase; ß=0.05; P=5×10-15). This association was confirmed on an alternate proteomics platform and further supported by related metabolomic data. Fractalkine/CX3CL1 (C-X3-C Motif Chemokine Ligand 1) showed a novel association with incident HF (hazard ratio, 1.32; P=0.0002). While established biomarkers such as cystatin C and NT-proBNP showed consistent associations in Black and White individuals, LKHA4 and fractalkine were significantly different between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: We identified several novel biological pathways specific to Black adults hypothesized to contribute to the pathophysiologic cascade of LV hypertrophy and incident HF including LKHA4 and fractalkine.

Sex-Specific Associations of Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Biomarkers With Incident Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Whether cardiovascular (CV) disease risk factors and biomarkers associate differentially with heart failure (HF) risk in men and women is unclear. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate sex-specific associations of CV risk factors and biomarkers with incident HF. METHODS: The analysis was performed using data from 4 community-based cohorts with 12.5 years of follow-up. Participants (recruited between 1989 and 2002) were free of HF at baseline. Biomarker measurements included natriuretic peptides, cardiac troponins, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, D-dimer, fibrinogen, C-reactive protein, sST2, galectin-3, cystatin-C, and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio. RESULTS: Among 22,756 participants (mean age 60 ± 13 years, 53% women), HF occurred in 2,095 participants (47% women). Age, smoking, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, body mass index, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left bundle branch block were strongly associated with HF in both sexes (p < 0.001), and the combined clinical model had good discrimination in men (C-statistic = 0.80) and in women (C-statistic = 0.83). The majority of biomarkers were strongly and similarly associated with HF in both sexes. The clinical model improved modestly after adding natriuretic peptides in men (ΔC-statistic = 0.006; likelihood ratio chi-square = 146; p < 0.001), and after adding cardiac troponins in women (ΔC-statistic = 0.003; likelihood ratio chi-square = 73; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: CV risk factors are strongly and similarly associated with incident HF in both sexes, highlighting the similar importance of risk factor control in reducing HF risk in the community. There are subtle sex-related differences in the predictive value of individual biomarkers, but the overall improvement in HF risk estimation when included in a clinical HF risk prediction model is limited in both sexes.

Clinical and Hemodynamic Associations and Prognostic Implications of Ventilatory Efficiency in Patients With Preserved Left Ventricular Systolic Function.

BACKGROUND: Ventilatory efficiency (minute ventilation required to eliminate carbon dioxide, VE/VCO2) during exercise potently predicts outcomes in advanced heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, but its prognostic significance for at-risk individuals with preserved left ventricular systolic function is unclear. We aimed to characterize mechanistic determinants and prognostic implications of VE/VCO2 in a single-center dyspneic referral cohort (MGH-ExS [Massachusetts General Hospital Exercise Study]) and in a large sample of community-dwelling participants in the FHS (Framingham Heart Study). METHODS: Maximum incremental cardiopulmonary exercise tests were performed. VE/VCO2 was assessed as the slope pre- and post-ventilatory anaerobic threshold (VE/VCO2pre-VATslope, VE/VCO2post-VATslope), the slope throughout exercise (VE/VCO2overall-slope), and as the lowest 30-second value (VE/VCO2nadir). RESULTS: In the MGH-ExS (N=493, age 56±15 years, 61% women, left ventricular ejection fraction 64±8%), higher VE/VCO2nadir was associated with lower peak exercise cardiac output and steeper increases in exercise pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (both P<0.0001). VE/VCO2nadir (hazard ratio, 1.34 per 1-SD unit [95% CI, 1.10-1.62] P=0.003) was associated with future cardiovascular hospitalization/death and outperformed classical VE/VCO2 measures used in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (VE/VCO2overall-slope). In FHS (N=1936, age 54±9 years, 53% women), VE/VCO2 measures taken in low-to-moderate intensity exercise (including VE/VCO2pre-VATslope, VE/VCO2nadir) were directly associated with cardiovascular risk factor burden (smoking, Framingham cardiovascular disease risk score, and lower fitness; all P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Impaired ventilatory efficiency is associated with cardiovascular risk in the community and with adverse hemodynamic profiles and future hospitalizations/death in a referral population, highlighting the prognostic importance of easily acquired submaximum exercise ventilatory gas exchange measurements in broad populations with preserved left ventricular systolic function.

Exercise Pulmonary Hypertension Predicts Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Dyspnea on Effort.

BACKGROUND: Abnormal pulmonary arterial pressure (PAP) responses to exercise have been described in select individuals; however, clinical and prognostic implications of exercise pulmonary hypertension (exPH) among broader samples remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate the association of exPH with clinical determinants and outcomes. METHODS: The authors studied individuals with chronic exertional dyspnea and preserved ejection fraction who underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing with invasive hemodynamic monitoring. Exercise pulmonary hypertension was ascertained using minute-by-minute PAP and cardiac output (CO) measurements to calculate a PAP/CO slope, and exPH defined as a PAP/CO slope >3 mm Hg/l/min. The primary outcome was cardiovascular (CV) hospitalization or all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 714 individuals (age 57 years, 59% women), 296 (41%) had abnormal PAP/CO slopes. Over a mean follow-up of 3.7 ± 2.9 years, there were 208 CV or death events. Individuals with abnormal PAP/CO slope had a 2-fold increased hazard of future CV or death event (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio: 2.03; 95% confidence interval: 1.48 to 2.78; p < 0.001). The association of abnormal PAP/CO slope with outcomes remained significant after excluding rest PH (n = 146, hazard ratio: 1.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.21 to 2.54; p = 0.003). Both pre- and post-capillary contributions to exPH independently predicted adverse events (p < 0.001 for both). CONCLUSIONS: Exercise pulmonary hypertension is independently associated with CV event-free survival among individuals undergoing evaluation of chronic dyspnea. These findings suggest incremental value of exercise hemodynamic assessment to resting measurements alone in characterizing the burden of PH in individuals with dyspnea. Whether PH and PH subtypes unmasked by exercise can be used to guide targeted therapeutic interventions requires further investigation.

Sex Differences in Cardiometabolic Traits and Determinants of Exercise Capacity in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

Importance: Sex differences in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have been established, but insights into the mechanistic drivers of these differences are limited. Objective: To examine sex differences in cardiometabolic profiles and exercise hemodynamic profiles among individuals with HFpEF. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study was conducted at a single-center tertiary care referral hospital from December 2006 to June 2017 and included 295 participants who met hemodynamic criteria for HFpEF based on invasive cardiopulmonary exercise testing results. We examined sex differences in distinct components of oxygen transport and utilization during exercise using linear and logistic regression models. The data were analyzed from June 2018 to May 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Resting and exercise gas exchange and hemodynamic parameters obtained during cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Results: Of 295 participants, 121 (41.0%) were men (mean [SD] age, 64 [12] years) and 174 (59.0%) were women (mean [SD] age, 61 [13] years). Compared with men, women with HFpEF in this tertiary referral cohort had fewer comorbidities, including diabetes, insulin resistance, and hypertension, and a more favorable adipokine profile. Exercise capacity was similar in men and women (percent predicted peak oxygen [O2] consumption: 66% in women vs 68% in men; P = .38), but women had distinct deficits in components of the O2 pathway, including worse biventricular systolic reserve (multivariable-adjusted analyses: ΔLVEF ß = -1.70; SE, 0.86; P < .05; ΔRVEF ß = -2.39, SE=0.80; P = .003), diastolic reserve (PCWP/CO: ß = 0.63; SE, 0.31; P = .04), and peripheral O2 extraction (C(a-v)O2 ß=-0.90, SE=0.22; P < .001)). Conclusions and Relevance: Despite a lower burden of cardiometabolic disease and a similar percent predicted exercise capacity, women with HFpEF demonstrated greater cardiac and extracardiac deficits, including systolic reserve, diastolic reserve, and peripheral O2 extraction. These sex differences in cardiac and skeletal muscle responses to exercise may illuminate the pathophysiology underlying the development of HFpEF and should be investigated further.

Incidental Statin Use and the Risk of Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack after Radiotherapy for Head and Neck Cancer.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Interventions to reduce the risk for cerebrovascular events (CVE; stroke and transient ischemic attack [TIA]) after radiotherapy (RT) for head and neck cancer (HNCA) are needed. Among broad populations, statins reduce CVEs; however, whether statins reduce CVEs after RT for HNCA is unclear. Therefore, we aimed to test whether incidental statin use at the time of RT is associated with a lower rate of CVEs after RT for HNCA. METHODS: From an institutional database we identified all consecutive subjects treated with neck RT from 2002 to 2012 for HNCA. Data collection and event adjudication was performed by blinded teams. The primary outcome was a composite of ischemic stroke and TIA. The secondary outcome was ischemic stroke. The association between statin use and events was determined using Cox proportional hazard models after adjustment for traditional and RT-specific risk factors. RESULTS: The final cohort consisted of 1,011 patients (59±13 years, 30% female, 44% hypertension) with 288 (28%) on statins. Over a median follow-up of 3.4 years (interquartile range, 0.1 to 14) there were 102 CVEs (89 ischemic strokes and 13 TIAs) with 17 in statin users versus 85 in nonstatins users. In a multivariable model containing known predictors of CVE, statins were associated with a reduction in the combination of stroke and TIA (hazard ratio [HR], 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2 to 0.8; P=0.01) and ischemic stroke alone (HR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2 to 0.8; P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Incidental statin use at the time of RT for HNCA is associated with a lower risk of stroke or TIA.

Association of Cardiovascular Biomarkers With Incident Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction.

Importance: Nearly half of all patients with heart failure have preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) as opposed to reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), yet associations of biomarkers with future heart failure subtype are incompletely understood. Objective: To evaluate the associations of 12 cardiovascular biomarkers with incident HFpEF vs HFrEF among adults from the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study included 4 longitudinal community-based cohorts: the Cardiovascular Health Study (1989-1990; 1992-1993 for supplemental African-American cohort), the Framingham Heart Study (1995-1998), the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2000-2002), and the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease study (1997-1998). Each cohort had prospective ascertainment of incident HFpEF and HFrEF. Data analysis was performed from June 25, 2015, to November 9, 2017. Exposures: The following biomarkers were examined: N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide or brain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity troponin T or I, C-reactive protein (CRP), urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), renin to aldosterone ratio, D-dimer, fibrinogen, soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity, galectin-3, cystatin C, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1, and interleukin 6. Main Outcomes and Measures: Development of incident HFpEF and incident HFrEF. Results: Among the 22 756 participants in these 4 cohorts (12 087 women and 10 669 men; mean [SD] age, 60 [13] years) in the study, during a median follow-up of 12 years, 633 participants developed incident HFpEF, and 841 developed HFrEF. In models adjusted for clinical risk factors of heart failure, 2 biomarkers were significantly associated with incident HFpEF: UACR (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33; 95% CI, 1.20-1.48; P < .001) and natriuretic peptides (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.16-1.40; P < .001), with suggestive associations for high-sensitivity troponin (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.19; P = .008), plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.03-1.45; P = .02), and fibrinogen (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.03-1.22; P = .01). By contrast, 6 biomarkers were associated with incident HFrEF: natriuretic peptides (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.41-1.68; P < .001), UACR (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.11-1.32; P < .001), high-sensitivity troponin (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.29-1.46; P < .001), cystatin C (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.27; P < .001), D-dimer (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.11-1.35; P < .001), and CRP (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.28; P < .001). When directly compared, natriuretic peptides, high-sensitivity troponin, and CRP were more strongly associated with HFrEF compared with HFpEF. Conclusions and Relevance: Biomarkers of renal dysfunction, endothelial dysfunction, and inflammation were associated with incident HFrEF. By contrast, only natriuretic peptides and UACR were associated with HFpEF. These findings highlight the need for future studies focused on identifying novel biomarkers of the risk of HFpEF.

Predictors and outcomes of heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction.

AIMS: While heart failure with preserved (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are well described, determinants and outcomes of heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction (HFmrEF) remain unclear. We sought to examine clinical and biochemical predictors of incident HFmrEF in the community. METHODS AND RESULTS: We pooled data from four community-based longitudinal cohorts, with ascertainment of new heart failure (HF) classified into HFmrEF [ejection fraction (EF) 41-49%], HFpEF (EF ≥50%), and HFrEF (EF ≤40%). Predictors of incident HF subtypes were assessed using multivariable Cox models. Among 28 820 participants free of HF followed for a median of 12 years, there were 200 new HFmrEF cases, compared with 811 HFpEF and 1048 HFrEF. Clinical predictors of HFmrEF included age, male sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, and prior myocardial infarction (multivariable adjusted P ≤ 0.003 for all). Biomarkers that predicted HFmrEF included natriuretic peptides, cystatin-C, and high-sensitivity troponin (P ≤ 0.0004 for all). Natriuretic peptides were stronger predictors of HFrEF [hazard ratio (HR) 2.00 per 1 standard deviation increase, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.81-2.20] than of HFmrEF (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.20-1.90, P = 0.01 for difference), and did not differ in their association with incident HFmrEF and HFpEF (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.41-1.73, P = 0.68 for difference). All-cause mortality following the onset of HFmrEF was worse than that of HFpEF (50 vs. 39 events per 1000 person-years, P = 0.02), but comparable to that of HFrEF (46 events per 1000 person-years, P = 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: We found overlap in predictors of incident HFmrEF with other HF subtypes. In contrast, mortality risk after HFmrEF was worse than HFpEF, and similar to HFrEF.