External validation of a prognostic model to improve prediction of psychosis in primary care.

Background Early detection could reduce the duration of untreated psychosis. GPs are a vital part of the psychosis care pathway but find it difficult to detect the early features. An accurate risk prediction tool (P Risk) was developed to detect these. Aim The external validation of P Risk. Methods A retrospective cohort study using a validation dataset of 1,647,934 UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink primary care records linked to secondary care records. The same predictors (age, sex, ethnicity, social deprivation, consultations for suicidal behaviour, depression/anxiety and substance abuse, history of consultations for suicidal behaviour, smoking history and substance abuse and prescribed medications for depression/anxiety/PTSD/OCD and total number of consultations) were used as for P Risk development. Predictive risk, sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were calculated for various risk thresholds. Discrimination (Harrell's C) and calibration were calculated. Results were compared between the development (GOLD) and validation (AURUM) datasets. Findings Psychosis risk increased with values of the P Risk prognostic index. Incidence was highest in younger age groups and mainly higher in males. Harrell's C was 0.79 (95% CI 0.78, 0.79) in the validation dataset and 0.77 in the development dataset. A risk threshold of 1% gave sensitivity of 65.9% and specificity of 86.6%. Interpretation Further testing is required but P Risk has the potential to be used in primary care to detect future risk of psychosis.

Feasibility randomised controlled trial of face-to-face counselling and mobile phone messages compared to usual care for smokeless tobacco cessation in Indian primary care: Project CERTAIN.

INTRODUCTION: Smokeless tobacco (SLT) use in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has adverse health consequences. We hypothesize that it is feasible to test an intervention of mobile phone messages and face-to-face counselling session for SLT cessation in India. METHODS: We conducted an exploratory, individual parallel two group, randomised controlled trial (RCT), with baseline -and end-point (three months from randomisation) assessments in urban primary health centres in Odisha, India. A total of 250 current (i.e., users in the last three months) SLT users or dual users (i.e., smokers and SLT users) were recruited to the trial (125 in each group). Participants were randomised to either routine care, face-to-face counselling, and reminder mobile messages or routine care only. The primary outcomes were to assess the feasibility of running a full RCT including recruitment, compliance, and retention. RESULTS: A total seven (77.8%) out of nine primary care centres took part in the trial. Out of the 315 SLT users invited to participate, 250 provided consent and were randomised [79.4% (95% CI: 74.5, 83.7)]. Out of the 250 randomised SLT users, 238 [95% (95% CI: 91.8, 97.5)] were followed up at three months (117 in the intervention group and 121 in the control group). Of the participants in the intervention group, 74 (63.8%) reported that they received the mobile messages. CONCLUSIONS: This exploratory trial demonstrated the feasibility of delivering and evaluating an intervention of mobile phone messages and face-to-face counselling for SLT users in Indian primary care in a full randomised trial. IMPLICATIONS: This study found that combining mobile messages with face-to-face counselling for smokeless tobacco users visiting primary health care settings in India is feasible in terms of recruitment of users, compliance with the intervention, and retention of study participants within the trial.The biochemically verified smokeless tobacco abstinence rate was higher in the intervention group compared with the control groupThere was poor agreement between self-reported tobacco cessation and the measured salivary cotinine in smokeless tobacco users.The findings support the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention signalling the need for a larger clinical trial to test effectiveness of the intervention.

Validation of Mobile Messages for an mHealth Intervention for Smokeless Tobacco Cessation in India.

BACKGROUND: With the growth in use of mobile messages for behaviour change, the need to incorporate personal needs and cultural characteristics of target users has been promoted. The study aimed to describe the findings of content validation of mobile messages designed to promote smokeless tobacco cessation in primary care. METHODS: This study used a concurrent mixed-method approach with 13 patients who were tobacco users at urban primary care clinics. The clarity and appeal of 32 messages were rated on a Likert scale from 1 to 10. A mean clarity and appeal score per message was generated. A 5-item discussion guide was used for in-depth interviews and data was analysed using framework analysis. RESULTS: Participants found the content of the messages useful, and preferred shorter and audio formatted messages. The clarity scores for the messages ranged from 7.9 to 9.4 with an average score of 8.7 (SD 0.5). The appeal scores ranged from 7.3 to 9.2, with an average score of 8.5 (SD 0.6). CONCLUSIONS: Twenty-six from a total of 32 messages were found appropriate and finalised for use. This methodology can be used when developing contextually relevant mobile message interventions in other low resource settings.

Classic ketogenic diet versus further antiseizure medicine in infants with drug-resistant epilepsy (KIWE): a UK, multicentre, open-label, randomised clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Many infancy-onset epilepsies have poor prognosis for seizure control and neurodevelopmental outcome. Ketogenic diets can improve seizures in children older than 2 years and adults who are unresponsive to antiseizure medicines. We aimed to establish the efficacy of a classic ketogenic diet at reducing seizure frequency compared with further antiseizure medicine in infants with drug-resistant epilepsy. METHODS: In this phase 4, open-label, multicentre, randomised clinical trial, infants aged 1-24 months with drug-resistant epilepsy (defined as four or more seizures per week and two or more previous antiseizure medications) were recruited from 19 hospitals in the UK. Following a 1-week or 2-week observation period, participants were randomly assigned using a computer-generated schedule, without stratification, to either a classic ketogenic diet or a further antiseizure medication for 8 weeks. Treatment allocation was masked from research nurses involved in patient care, but not from participants. The primary outcome was the median number of seizures per day, recorded during weeks 6-8. All analyses were by modified intention to treat, which included all participants with available data. Participants were followed for up to 12 months. All serious adverse events were recorded. The trial is registered with the European Union Drug Regulating Authorities Clinical Trials Database (2013-002195-40). The trial was terminated early before all participants had reached 12 months of follow-up because of slow recruitment and end of funding. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2015, and Sept 30, 2021, 155 infants were assessed for eligibility, of whom 136 met inclusion criteria and were randomly assigned; 75 (55%) were male and 61 (45%) were female. 78 infants were assigned to a ketogenic diet and 58 to antiseizure medication, of whom 61 and 47, respectively, had available data and were included in the modifified intention-to-treat analysis at week 8. The median number of seizures per day during weeks 6-8, accounting for baseline rate and randomised group, was similar between the ketogenic diet group (5 [IQR 1-16]) and antiseizure medication group (3 [IQR 2-11]; IRR 1·33, 95% CI 0·84-2·11). A similar number of infants with at least one serious adverse event was reported in both groups (40 [51%] of 78 participants in the ketogenic diet group and 26 [45%] of 58 participants in the antiseizure medication group). The most common serious adverse events were seizures in both groups. Three infants died during the trial, all of whom were randomly assigned a ketogenic diet: one child (who also had dystonic cerebral palsy) was found not breathing at home; one child died suddenly and unexpectedly at home; and one child went into cardiac arrest during routine surgery under anaesthetic. The deaths were judged unrelated to treatment by local principal investigators and confirmed by the data safety monitoring committee. INTERPRETATION: In this phase 4 trial, a ketogenic diet did not differ in efficacy and tolerability to a further antiseizure medication, and it appears to be safe to use in infants with drug-resistant epilepsy. A ketogenic diet could be a treatment option in infants whose seizures continue despite previously trying two antiseizure medications. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Anomalies in the review process and interpretation of the evidence in the NICE guideline for chronic fatigue syndrome and myalgic encephalomyelitis.

Chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis (CFS/ME) is a disabling long-term condition of unknown cause. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) published a guideline in 2021 that highlighted the seriousness of the condition, but also recommended that graded exercise therapy (GET) should not be used and cognitive-behavioural therapy should only be used to manage symptoms and reduce distress, not to aid recovery. This U-turn in recommendations from the previous 2007 guideline is controversial.We suggest that the controversy stems from anomalies in both processing and interpretation of the evidence by the NICE committee. The committee: (1) created a new definition of CFS/ME, which 'downgraded' the certainty of trial evidence; (2) omitted data from standard trial end points used to assess efficacy; (3) discounted trial data when assessing treatment harm in favour of lower quality surveys and qualitative studies; (4) minimised the importance of fatigue as an outcome; (5) did not use accepted practices to synthesise trial evidence adequately using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations trial evidence); (6) interpreted GET as mandating fixed increments of change when trials defined it as collaborative, negotiated and symptom dependent; (7) deviated from NICE recommendations of rehabilitation for related conditions, such as chronic primary pain and (8) recommended an energy management approach in the absence of supportive research evidence.We conclude that the dissonance between this and the previous guideline was the result of deviating from usual scientific standards of the NICE process. The consequences of this are that patients may be denied helpful treatments and therefore risk persistent ill health and disability.

The value of blood-based measures of liver function and urate in lung cancer risk prediction: A cohort study and health economic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have reported associations between low-cost blood-based measurements and lung cancer but their role in risk prediction is unclear. We examined the value of expanding lung cancer risk models for targeting low-dose computed tomography (LDCT), including blood measurements of liver function and urate. METHODS: We analysed a cohort of 388,199 UK Biobank participants with 1873 events and calculated the c-index and fraction of new information (FNI) for models expanded to include combinations of blood measurements, lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s - FEV1), alcohol status and waist circumference. We calculated the hypothetical cost per lung cancer case detected by LDCT for different scenarios using a threshold of ≥ 1.51 % risk at 6 years. RESULTS: The c-index was 0.805 (95 %CI:0.794-0.816) for the model containing conventional predictors. Expanding to include blood measurements increased the c-index to 0.815 (95 %CI: 0.804-0.826;p < 0.0001;FNI:0.06). Expanding to include FEV1, alcohol status, and waist circumference increased the c-index to 0.811 (95 %CI: 0.800-0.822;p < 0.0001;FNI: 0.04). The c-index for the fully expanded model containing all variables was 0.819 (95 %CI:0.808-0.830;p < 0.0001;FNI:0.09). Model expansion had a greater impact on the c-index and FNI for people with a history of smoking cigarettes relative to the full cohort. Compared with the conventional risk model, the expanded models reduced the number of participants meeting the criteria for LDCT screening by 15-21 %, and lung cancer cases detected by 7-8 %. The additional cost per lung cancer case detected relative to the conventional model was £ 1018 for adding blood tests and £ 9775 for the fully expanded model. CONCLUSION: Blood measurements of liver function and urate made a modest improvement to lung cancer risk prediction compared with a model containing conventional risk factors. There was no evidence that model expansion would improve the cost per lung cancer case detected in UK healthcare settings.

Designing a mobile health smokeless tobacco cessation intervention in Odisha, India: User and provider perspectives.

Objective: There is limited evidence on the development of mobile health (mHealth) interventions for smokeless tobacco (SLT) cessation, despite its widespread use in South Asia. This formative qualitative study explored the perceptions of tobacco users and healthcare providers (HCPs) regarding developing a mHealth intervention for SLT cessation. Methods: This was a qualitative study using in-depth interviews (IDIs) with tobacco users (n = 26) and primary care physicians (PCPs) (n = 5) and focus group discussions (FGDs) with counsellors (n = 2) in four urban primary health centres (UPHCs) in Berhampur, Odisha from February to March 2020. The data were coded and analysed by two researchers using a framework analysis method. The discussion guides and initial codes were developed based on the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of behaviour change. Results: The results were elaborated under four themes: (1) Current scenario of SLT use; (2) Barriers and facilitators for quitting SLT; (3) Barriers and facilitators for mHealth counselling; and (4) Design and delivery of the proposed intervention. SLT use was prevalent in the community regardless of sociodemographic factors. Peer factors accounted for both tobacco consumption as well as considering cessation. Participants considered mobile message counselling helpful and acceptable. Not having a mobile phone and illiteracy were identified as barriers while ease of access and rising popularity of social media applications were considered facilitators to the use of mHealth for quitting tobacco. Participants preferred messages that were pictorial, short and simple, in the local language, and tailored to individual's needs. Conclusions: This is the first study that provides evidence within the Indian context that the text messaging platform may be used for delivering an SLT cessation intervention. The integration of a theoretical basis and research findings from target users can guide future intervention development.

Developing and internally validating a prognostic model (P Risk) to improve the prediction of psychosis in a primary care population using electronic health records: The MAPPED study.

BACKGROUND: An accurate risk prediction algorithm could improve psychosis outcomes by reducing duration of untreated psychosis. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a risk prediction model for psychosis, for use by family doctors, using linked electronic health records. METHODS: A prospective prediction study. Records from family practices were used between 1/1/2010 to 31/12/2017 of 300,000 patients who had consulted their family doctor for any nonpsychotic mental health problem. Records were selected from Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold, a routine database of UK family doctor records linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, a routine database of UK secondary care records. Each patient had 5-8 years of follow up data. Study predictors were consultations, diagnoses and/or prescribed medications, during the study period or historically, for 13 nonpsychotic mental health problems and behaviours, age, gender, number of mental health consultations, social deprivation, geographical location, and ethnicity. The outcome was time to an ICD10 psychosis diagnosis. FINDINGS: 830 diagnoses of psychosis were made. Patients were from 216 family practices; mean age was 45.3 years and 43.5 % were male. Median follow-up was 6.5 years (IQR 5.6, 7.8). Overall 8-year psychosis incidence was 45.8 (95 % CI 42.8, 49.0)/100,000 person years at risk. A risk prediction model including age, sex, ethnicity, social deprivation, consultations for suicidal behaviour, depression/anxiety, substance abuse, history of consultations for suicidal behaviour, smoking history and prescribed medications for depression/anxiety/PTSD/OCD and total number of consultations had good discrimination (Harrell's C = 0.774). Identifying patients aged 17-100 years with predicted risk exceeding 1.0 % over 6 years had sensitivity of 71 % and specificity of 84 %. FUNDING: NIHR, School for Primary Care Research, Biomedical Research Centre.

Exploratory randomised trial of face-to-face and mobile phone counselling against usual care for tobacco cessation in Indian primary care: a randomised controlled trial protocol for project CERTAIN.

INTRODUCTION: Despite widespread use of smokeless tobacco products by people within the Indian subcontinent, there is little awareness among Indians of its health hazards when compared with smoked tobacco. We hypothesise that mobile phone counselling will be feasible and effective for smokeless tobacco cessation intervention in India. This paper presents the protocol of the development and conduct of an exploratory trial before progression to a full randomised controlled trial. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: An exploratory randomised controlled trial will be conducted in urban primary health centres in the state of Odisha, India. A total of 250 smokeless tobacco users will be recruited to the study (125 in each arm). Participants in the intervention arm will receive routine care together with a face-to-face counselling intervention followed by advice and reminder mobile messages. The control arm will receive routine care, delivered by a primary care physician based on 'Ask' and 'Advice'. All participants will be followed up for 3 months from the first counselling session. The primary outcome of this trial is to assess the feasibility to carry out a full randomised controlled trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approvals were obtained from the Institutional Ethics Committee of Public Health Foundation of India, Health Ministry's Screening Committee, Odisha State Ethics Board and also from University College London Research Ethics Committee, UK. The study findings will be published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CTRI/2019/05/019484.

Cardiovascular outcomes of type 2 diabetic patients treated with DPP­4 inhibitors versus sulphonylureas as add-on to metformin in clinical practice.

DPP-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) and sulphonylureas remain the most widely prescribed add-on treatments after metformin. However, there is limited evidence from clinical practice comparing major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients prescribed these treatments, particularly among those without prior history of MACE and from vulnerable population groups. Using electronic health records from UK primary care, we undertook a retrospective cohort study with people diagnosed type-2 diabetes mellitus, comparing incidence of MACE (myocardial infarction, stroke, major cardiovascular surgery, unstable angina) and all-cause mortality among those prescribed DPP-4i versus sulphonylureas as add-on to metformin. We stratified analysis by history of MACE, age, social deprivation and comorbidities and adjusted for HbA1c, weight, smoking-status, comorbidities and medications. We identified 17,570 patients prescribed sulphonylureas and 6,267 prescribed DPP-4i between 2008-2017. Of these, 16.3% had pre-existing MACE. Primary incidence of MACE was similar in patients prescribed DPP-4i and sulphonylureas (10.3 vs 8.5 events per 1000 person-years; adjusted Hazard Ratio (adjHR): 0.94; 95%CI 0.80-1.14). For those with pre-existing MACE, rates for recurrence were higher overall, but similar between the two groups (21.8 vs 17.2 events per 1000 person-years; adjHR: 0.93; 95%CI 0.69-1.24). For those aged over 75 and with BMI less than 25 kg/m2 there was a protective effect for DPP-I, warranting further investigation. Patients initiating a DPP-4i had similar risk of cardiovascular outcomes to those initiating a sulphonylurea. This indicates the choice should be based on safety and cost, not cardiovascular prognosis, when deciding between a DPP-4i or sulphonylurea as add-on to metformin.

Serum urate and lung cancer: a cohort study and Mendelian randomization using UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Serum urate is the most abundant small molecule with antioxidant properties found in blood and the epithelial lining fluid of the respiratory system. Moderately raised serum urate is associated with lower rates of lung cancer and COPD in smokers but whether these relationships reflect antioxidant properties or residual confounding is unknown. METHODS: We investigated the observational and potentially causal associations of serum urate with lung cancer incidence and FEV1 using one-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) and the UK Biobank resource. Incident lung cancer events were identified from national cancer registries as FEV1 was measured at baseline. Observational and genetically instrumented incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and risk differences per 10,000 person-years (PYs) by smoking status were estimated. RESULTS: The analysis included 359,192 participants and 1,924 lung cancer events. The associations between measured urate levels and lung cancer were broadly U-shaped but varied by sex at birth with the strongest associations in current smoking men. After adjustment for confounding variables, current smoking men with low serum urate (100 µmol/L) had the highest predicted lung cancer incidence at 125/10,000 PY (95%CI 56-170/10,000 PY) compared with 45/10,000 PY (95%CI 38-47/10,000 PY) for those with the median level (300 µmol/L). Raised measured urate was associated with a lower baseline FEV1. The MR results did not support a causal relationship between serum urate and lung cancer or FEV1. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that serum urate is a modifiable risk factor for respiratory health or lung cancer.

Cigarette smoking as a risk factor for schizophrenia or all non-affective psychoses.

BACKGROUND: Smoking tobacco is regarded as an epiphenomenon in patients with schizophrenia when it may be causal. We aimed to examine whether smoking status is related to the onset of schizophrenia or the broader diagnosis of non-affective psychosis, including schizophrenia. METHODS: We used data from The Health Improvement Network primary care database to identify people aged 15-24 between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2009. We followed them until the earliest of: first diagnosis of schizophrenia (or psychosis), patient left the practice, practice left THIN, patient died or 31 December 2014. RESULTS: In men, incidence rates for schizophrenia per 100 000 person years at risk were higher in smoking initiators (non-smoker who became a smoker during the study) than in non-smokers (adjusted IRR 1.94; 95% CI 1.29-2.91) and higher still in smokers (adjusted IRR 3.32; 95% CI 2.67-4.14). Among women, the incidence rate of schizophrenia was higher in smokers than in non-smokers (adjusted IRR 1.50; 95% CI 1.06-2.12), but no higher in smoking initiators than non-smokers. For non-affective psychosis, the pattern was similar for men but more evident in women where psychosis incidence rates were higher in smoking initiators (adjusted IRR 1.90; 95% CI 1.40-2.56) and in smokers (adjusted IRR 2.13; 95% CI 1.76-2.57) than in non-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: We found an important and strong association between smoking and incidence of schizophrenia. Smoking may increase risk through as yet unknown pathways or smoking may share genetic risk with schizophrenia and non-affective psychoses.

Study protocol for evaluation of aid to diagnosis for developmental dysplasia of the hip in general practice: controlled trial randomised by practice.

INTRODUCTION: In the UK, a compulsory '6-week hip check' is performed in primary care for the detection of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). However, missed diagnoses and infants incorrectly labelled with DDH remain a problem, potentially leading to adverse consequences for infants, their families and the National Health Service. National policy states that infants should be referred to hospital if the 6-week check suggests DDH, though there is no available tool to aid examination or offer guidelines for referral. We developed standardised diagnostic criteria for DDH, based on international Delphi consensus, and a 9-item checklist that has the potential to enable non-experts to diagnose DDH in a manner approaching that of experts. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a controlled trial randomised by practice that will compare a diagnostic aid against standard care for the hip check. The primary objective is to determine whether an aid to the diagnosis of DDH reduces the number of clinically insignificant referrals from primary care to hospital and the number of late diagnosed DDH. The trial will include a qualitative process evaluation, an assessment of professional behavioural change and a full health economic evaluation. We will recruit 152 general practitioner practices in England. These will be randomised to conduct the hip checks with use of the study diagnostic aid and/or as per usual practice. The total number of infants seen during a 15-month recruitment period will be 110 per practice. Two years after the 6-week hip check, we will measure the number of referred infants that are (1) clinically insignificant for DDH and (2) those that constitute appropriate referrals. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has approval from the Health Research Authority (16/1/2020) and the Confidentiality Advisory Group (18/2/2020). Results will be published in peer-reviewed academic journals, disseminated to patient organisations and the media. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04101903; Pre-results.

Antibiotic prescribing for lower UTI in elderly patients in primary care and risk of bloodstream infection: A cohort study using electronic health records in England.

BACKGROUND: Research has questioned the safety of delaying or withholding antibiotics for suspected urinary tract infection (UTI) in older patients. We evaluated the association between antibiotic treatment for lower UTI and risk of bloodstream infection (BSI) in adults aged ≥65 years in primary care. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed primary care records from patients aged ≥65 years in England with community-onset UTI using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2007-2015) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and census data. The primary outcome was BSI within 60 days, comparing patients treated immediately with antibiotics and those not treated immediately. Crude and adjusted associations between exposure and outcome were estimated using generalized estimating equations. A total of 147,334 patients were included representing 280,462 episodes of lower UTI. BSI occurred in 0.4% (1,025/244,963) of UTI episodes with immediate antibiotics versus 0.6% (228/35,499) of episodes without immediate antibiotics. After adjusting for patient demographics, year of consultation, comorbidities, smoking status, recent hospitalizations, recent accident and emergency (A&E) attendances, recent antibiotic prescribing, and home visits, the odds of BSI were equivalent in patients who were not treated with antibiotics immediately and those who were treated on the date of their UTI consultation (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.13, 95% CI 0.97-1.32, p-value = 0.105). Delaying or withholding antibiotics was associated with increased odds of death in the subsequent 60 days (aOR 1.17, 95% CI 1.09-1.26, p-value < 0.001), but there was limited evidence that increased deaths were attributable to urinary-source BSI. Limitations include overlap between the categories of immediate and delayed antibiotic prescribing, residual confounding underlying differences between patients who were/were not treated with antibiotics, and lack of microbiological diagnosis for BSI. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that delaying or withholding antibiotics in older adults with suspected UTI did not increase patients' risk of BSI, in contrast with a previous study that analyzed the same dataset, but mortality was increased. Our findings highlight uncertainty around the risks of delaying or withholding antibiotic treatment, which is exacerbated by systematic differences between patients who were and were not treated immediately with antibiotics. Overall, our findings emphasize the need for improved diagnostic/risk prediction strategies to guide antibiotic prescribing for suspected UTI in older adults.

Genetically raised serum bilirubin levels and lung cancer: a cohort study and Mendelian randomisation using UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Moderately raised serum bilirubin levels are associated with lower rates of lung cancer, particularly among smokers. It is not known whether these relationships reflect antioxidant properties or residual confounding. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate potential causal relationships between serum total bilirubin and lung cancer incidence using one-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) and UK Biobank. METHODS: We instrumented serum total bilirubin level using two variants (rs887829 and rs4149056) that together explain ~40% of population-level variability and are linked to mild hereditary hyperbilirubinaemia. Lung cancer events occurring after recruitment were identified from national cancer registries. Observational and genetically instrumented incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and rate differences per 10 000 person-years (PYs) by smoking status were estimated. RESULTS: We included 377 294 participants (median bilirubin 8.1 µmol/L (IQR 6.4-10.4)) and 2002 lung cancer events in the MR analysis. Each 5 µmol/L increase in observed bilirubin levels was associated with 1.2/10 000 PY decrease (95% CI 0.7 to 1.8) in lung cancer incidence. The corresponding MR estimate was a decrease of 0.8/10 000 PY (95% CI 0.1 to 1.4). The strongest associations were in current smokers where a 5 µmol/L increase in observed bilirubin levels was associated with a decrease in lung cancer incidence of 10.2/10 000 PY (95% CI 5.5 to 15.0) and an MR estimate of 6.4/10 000 PY (95% CI 1.4 to 11.5). For heavy smokers (≥20/day), the MR estimate was an incidence decrease of 23.1/10 000 PY (95% CI 7.3 to 38.9). There was no association in never smokers and no mediation by respiratory function. CONCLUSION: Genetically raised serum bilirubin, common across human populations, may protect people exposed to high levels of smoke oxidants against lung cancers.

High-dose oral vitamin D supplementation and mortality in people aged 65-84 years: the VIDAL cluster feasibility RCT of open versus double-blind individual randomisation.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials demonstrating improved longevity are needed to justify high-dose vitamin D supplementation for older populations. OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate the feasibility of a large trial (n ≈ 20,000) of high-dose vitamin D in people aged 65-84 years through general practitioner (GP) practices, and to cluster randomise participating practices between open-label and double-blind randomisation to compare effects on recruitment, compliance and contamination. DESIGN: Twenty GP practices were randomised in matched pairs between open-label and double-blind allocation. Within each practice, patients were individually randomised to vitamin D or control (i.e. no treatment or placebo). Participants were invited to attend their GP practice to provide a blood sample and complete a lifestyle questionnaire at recruitment and again at 2 years. Randomisation by telephone followed receipt of a serum corrected calcium assay confirming eligibility (< 2.65 nmol/l). Treatment compliance was reported by quarterly follow-up forms sent and returned by e-mail or post (participant choice). GP visits and infections were abstracted from GP records. Hospital attendances, cancer diagnoses and deaths were ascertained by linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics and national registration through NHS Digital. SETTING: GP practices in England. PARTICIPANTS: Recruitment opened in October 2013 and closed in January 2015. A total of 1615 registered patients aged 65-84 years were randomised: 407 to vitamin D and 421 to no treatment in open practices; 395 to vitamin D and 392 to placebo in blind practices. INTERVENTIONS: There was a 24-month treatment period: 12 monthly doses (100,000 IU of vitamin D3 or placebo as 5 ml oily solution) were posted after randomisation and at 1 year (100,000 IU per month corresponds to 3300 IU per day). Reminders were sent monthly by e-mail, text message or post. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Recruitment, compliance, contamination and change in circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] from baseline to 2 years. RESULTS: Participation rates (randomised/invited) were 15.0% in open practices and 13.4% in double-blind practices (p = 0.7). The proportion still taking study medication at 2 years was 91.2% in open practices and 89.2% in double-blind practices (p = 0.4). The proportion of control participants taking > 400 IU vitamin D per day at 2 years was 5.0% in open practices and 4.8% in double-blind practices. Mean serum 25(OH)D concentration was 51.5 nmol/l [95% confidence interval (CI) 50.2 to 52.8 nmol/l] with 82.6% of participants < 75 nmol/l at baseline. At 2 years, this increased to 109.6 nmol/l (95% CI 107.1 to 112.1 nmol/l) with 12.0% < 75 nmol/l in those allocated to vitamin D and was unaltered at 51.8 nmol/l (95% CI 49.8 to 53.8 nmol/l) in those allocated to no vitamin D (no treatment or placebo). CONCLUSIONS: A trial could recruit 20,000 participants aged 65-84 years through 200 GP practices over 2 years. Approximately 80% would be expected to adhere to allocated treatment (vitamin D or placebo) for 5 years. The trial could be conducted entirely by e-mail in participants aged < 80 years, but some participants aged 80-84 years would require postal follow-up. Recruitment and treatment compliance would be similar and contamination (self-administration of vitamin D) would be minimal, whether control participants are randomised openly to no treatment with no contact during the trial or randomised double-blind to placebo with monthly reminders. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN46328341 and EudraCT database 2011-003699-34. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 10. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

High-dose vitamin D may reduce the risk of many diseases, but without large randomised controlled trials the evidence will remain inconclusive. We therefore proposed the Vitamin D and Longevity (VIDAL) trial, with 20,000 older people randomised to either no vitamin D medication or vitamin D medication for 5 years. The VIDAL feasibility study was conducted to establish the procedures required for the main trial, including assessment of recruitment, compliance (taking study treatment as directed) and contamination (how many control participants started taking vitamin D). This was done in two sets of general practitioner (GP) practices: (1) 'open' practices, in which participants knew their treatment allocation (2 years of 100,000 IU vitamin D monthly or no treatment), and (2) 'double-blind' practices, in which participants and their GPs did not know whether they were taking vitamin D or placebo oil. We invited 11,376 men and women aged 65­84 years from 20 GP practices in England and 1615 (14%) took part. Ninety per cent of participants allocated to monthly oil took it for 2 years and few participants used vitamin supplements outside the trial, with no marked differences between open-label and double-blind arms. The best way to conduct the main trial will therefore depend on other considerations. A double-blind trial provides reliable evidence on effects where reporting could be influenced by you or your doctor knowing your treatment, which is important for many illnesses and any side effects of treatment. However, any long-term effects are likely to be considerably greater if treatment continues instead of stopping after 5 years when the main trial ends. An open trial is easier to conduct and, when it ends, those taking vitamin D can be offered a continuing supply so that the effect of lifelong treatment can be studied for major diseases and life expectancy, which are unlikely to be affected by individuals knowing whether or not they are taking vitamin D.

Effectiveness of cognitive-behavioural therapy for depression in advanced cancer: CanTalk randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Depression is one of the most common mental disorders in people with advanced cancer. Although cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) has been shown to be effective for depression in people with cancer, it is unclear whether this is the case for people with advanced cancer and depression. AIMS: We sought to determine whether CBT is more clinically effective than treatment as usual (TAU) for treating depression in people with advanced cancer (trial registration number ISRCTN07622709). METHOD: A multi-centre, parallel-group single-blind randomised controlled trial comparing TAU with CBT (plus TAU). Participants (n = 230) with advanced cancer and depression were randomly allocated to (a) up to 12 sessions of individual CBT or (b) TAU. The primary outcome measure was the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II). Secondary outcome measures included the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, and Satisfaction with Care. RESULTS: Multilevel modelling, including complier-average intention-to-treat analysis, found no benefit of CBT. CBT delivery was proficient, but there was no treatment effect (-0.84, 95% CI -2.76 to 1.08) or effects for secondary measures. Exploratory subgroup analysis suggested an effect of CBT on the BDI-II in those widowed, divorced or separated (-7.21, 95% CI -11.15 to -3.28). CONCLUSIONS: UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommend CBT for treating depression. Delivery of CBT through the Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) programme has been advocated for long-term conditions such as cancer. Although it is feasible to deliver CBT through IAPT proficiently to people with advanced cancer, this is not clinically effective. CBT for people widowed, divorced or separated needs further exploration. Alternate models of CBT delivery may yield different results.

Manualised cognitive-behavioural therapy in treating depression in advanced cancer: the CanTalk RCT.

BACKGROUND: With a prevalence of up to 16.5%, depression is one of the commonest mental disorders in people with advanced cancer. Depression reduces the quality of life (QoL) of patients and those close to them. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommend treating depression using antidepressants and/or psychological treatments, such as cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT). Although CBT has been shown to be effective for people with cancer, it is unclear whether or not this is the case for people with advanced cancer and depression. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of treatment as usual (TAU) plus manualised CBT, delivered by high-level Improving Access to Psychological Therapy (IAPT) practitioners, versus TAU for people with advanced cancer and depression, measured at baseline, 6, 12, 18 and 24 weeks. DESIGN: Parallel-group, single-blind, randomised trial, stratified by whether or not an antidepressant was prescribed, comparing TAU with CBT plus TAU. SETTING: Recruitment took place in oncology, hospice and primary care settings. CBT was delivered in IAPT centres or/and over the telephone. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (N = 230; n = 115 in each arm) with advanced cancer and depression. Inclusion criteria were a diagnosis of cancer not amenable to cure, a DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition) diagnosis of depressive disorder using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview, a sufficient understanding of English and eligibility for treatment in an IAPT centre. Exclusion criteria were an estimated survival of < 4 months, being at high risk of suicide and receiving, or having received in the last 2 months, a psychological intervention recommended by NICE for treating depression. INTERVENTIONS: (1) Up to 12 sessions of manualised individual CBT plus TAU delivered within 16 weeks and (2) TAU. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the Beck Depression Inventory, version 2 (BDI-II) score at 6, 12, 18 and 24 weeks. Secondary outcomes included scores on the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, satisfaction with care, EuroQol-5 Dimensions and the Client Services Receipt Inventory, at 12 and 24 weeks. RESULTS: A total of 80% of treatments (185/230) were analysed: CBT (plus TAU) (n = 93) and TAU (n = 92) for the BDI-II score at all time points using multilevel modelling. CBT was not clinically effective [treatment effect -0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.76 to 1.08; p = 0.39], nor was there any benefit for other measures. A subgroup analysis of those widowed, divorced or separated showed a significant effect of CBT on the BDI-II (treatment effect -7.21, 95% CI -11.15 to -3.28; p < 0.001). Economic analysis revealed that CBT has higher costs but produces more quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) than TAU. The mean service costs for participants (not including the costs of the interventions) were similar across the two groups. There were no differences in EQ-5D median scores at baseline, nor was there any advantage of CBT over TAU at 12 weeks or 24 weeks. There was no statistically significant improvement in QALYs at 24 weeks. LIMITATIONS: Although all participants satisfied a diagnosis of depression, for some, this was of less than moderate severity at baseline, which could have attenuated treatment effects. Only 64% (74/115) took up CBT, comparable to the general uptake through IAPT. CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive-behavioural therapy (delivered through IAPT) does not achieve any clinical benefit in advanced cancer patients with depression. The benefit of CBT for people widowed, divorced or separated is consistent with other studies. Alternative treatment options for people with advanced cancer warrant evaluation. Screening and referring those widowed, divorced or separated to IAPT for CBT may be beneficial. Whether or not improvements in this subgroup are due to non-specific therapeutic effects needs investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN07622709. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 19. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

There are high rates of depression in people with advanced (cannot-be-cured) cancer. Depression worsens a person's quality of life (QoL), may become a burden for carers and may prolong a patient's hospital stay. Cognitive­behavioural therapy (CBT) challenges unhelpful thinking and ways of doing things to help improve mood. CBT is effective for treating depression, but it is unclear if it works for depression in advanced cancer patients. Advanced cancer patients with depression were entered into a research trial to see if the addition of CBT to usual care was better at improving depressive symptoms than usual care alone. We also wished to evaluate whether or not CBT helped to save costs. We enrolled 230 participants from hospital clinics, general practitioner (GP) surgeries and the Marie Curie Hospice, Hampstead. A computer program randomly allocated people to one of two groups: (1) CBT plus usual care or (2) usual care alone. Everyone received usual care from their GPs and oncology teams. Patients who were offered the addition of CBT received up to 12 1-hour sessions delivered through a community service called Improving Access to Psychological Therapies. We measured depression using a questionnaire called the Beck Depression Inventory, version 2 collected at the start of, and at 6, 12, 18 and 24 weeks into, the trial. We also collected other measures, including those relating to health, QoL and resource costs at various times. Overall, there was no improvement in symptoms of low mood or cost savings with the addition of CBT to usual care compared with usual care alone. This means that CBT does not benefit people with depression and advanced cancer, and should not be routinely offered. However, those widowed, divorced or separated appeared to benefit from CBT over and above their usual care. CBT targeted to these people may be helpful and may ensure that resources are allocated in the best way.

Health indicator recording in UK primary care electronic health records: key implications for handling missing data.

BACKGROUND: Clinical databases are increasingly used for health research; many of them capture information on common health indicators including height, weight, blood pressure, cholesterol level, smoking status, and alcohol consumption. However, these are often not recorded on a regular basis; missing data are ubiquitous. We described the recording of health indicators in UK primary care and evaluated key implications for handling missing data. METHODS: We examined the recording of health indicators in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) UK primary care database over time, by demographic variables (age and sex) and chronic diseases (diabetes, myocardial infarction, and stroke). Using weight as an example, we fitted linear and logistic regression models to examine the associations of weight measurements and the probability of having weight recorded with individuals' demographic characteristics and chronic diseases. RESULTS: In total, 6,345,851 individuals aged 18-99 years contributed data to THIN between 2000 and 2015. Women aged 18-65 years were more likely than men of the same age to have health indicators recorded; this gap narrowed after age 65. About 60-80% of individuals had their height, weight, blood pressure, smoking status, and alcohol consumption recorded during the first year of registration. In the years following registration, these proportions fell to 10%-40%. Individuals with chronic diseases were more likely to have health indicators recorded, particularly after the introduction of a General Practitioner incentive scheme. Individuals' demographic characteristics and chronic diseases were associated with both observed weight measurements and missingness in weight. CONCLUSION: Missing data in common health indicators will affect statistical analysis in health research studies. A single analysis of primary care data using the available information alone may be misleading. Multiple imputation of missing values accounting for demographic characteristics and disease status is recommended but should be considered and implemented carefully. Sensitivity analysis exploring alternative assumptions for missing data should also be evaluated.

Landmark Models for Optimizing the Use of Repeated Measurements of Risk Factors in Electronic Health Records to Predict Future Disease Risk.

The benefits of using electronic health records (EHRs) for disease risk screening and personalized health-care decisions are being increasingly recognized. Here we present a computationally feasible statistical approach with which to address the methodological challenges involved in utilizing historical repeat measures of multiple risk factors recorded in EHRs to systematically identify patients at high risk of future disease. The approach is principally based on a 2-stage dynamic landmark model. The first stage estimates current risk factor values from all available historical repeat risk factor measurements via landmark-age-specific multivariate linear mixed-effects models with correlated random intercepts, which account for sporadically recorded repeat measures, unobserved data, and measurement errors. The second stage predicts future disease risk from a sex-stratified Cox proportional hazards model, with estimated current risk factor values from the first stage. We exemplify these methods by developing and validating a dynamic 10-year cardiovascular disease risk prediction model using primary-care EHRs for age, diabetes status, hypertension treatment, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in 41,373 persons from 10 primary-care practices in England and Wales contributing to The Health Improvement Network (1997-2016). Using cross-validation, the model was well-calibrated (Brier score = 0.041, 95% confidence interval: 0.039, 0.042) and had good discrimination (C-index = 0.768, 95% confidence interval: 0.759, 0.777).