Cardiovascular disease incidence projections in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD).

BACKGROUND: We aimed to project the 10-year future incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and model several intervention scenarios based on a multi-site Asian HIV-positive cohort. METHODS: Analyses were based on patients recruited to the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), consisting of 21 sites in 12 countries. Patients on triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) were included if they were alive, without previous CVD, and had data on CVD risk factors. Annual new CVD events for 2019-2028 were estimated with the D:A:D equation, accounting for age- and sex-adjusted mortality. Modelled intervention scenarios were treatment of high total cholesterol, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) or high blood pressure, abacavir or lopinavir substitution, and smoking cessation. RESULTS: Of 3,703 included patients, 69% were male, median age was 46 (IQR 40-53) years and median time since ART initiation was 9.8 years (IQR 7.5-14.1). Cohort incidence rates of CVD were projected to increase from 730 per 100,000 person-years (pys) in 2019 to 1,432 per 100,000 pys in 2028. In the modelled intervention scenarios, most events can be avoided by smoking cessation, abacavir substitution, lopinavir substitution, decreasing total cholesterol, treating high blood pressure and increasing HDL. CONCLUSIONS: Our projections suggest a doubling of CVD incidence rates in Asian HIV-positive adults in our cohort. An increase in CVD can be expected in any ageing population, however, according to our models, this can be close to averted by interventions. Thus, there is an urgent need for risk screening and integration of HIV and CVD programmes to reduce the future CVD burden.

The influence of age-associated comorbidities on responses to combination antiretroviral therapy in older people living with HIV.

INTRODUCTION: Multiple comorbidities among HIV-positive individuals may increase the potential for polypharmacy causing drug-to-drug interactions and older individuals with comorbidities, particularly those with cognitive impairment, may have difficulty in adhering to complex medications. However, the effects of age-associated comorbidities on the treatment outcomes of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) are not well known. In this study, we investigated the effects of age-associated comorbidities on therapeutic outcomes of cART in HIV-positive adults in Asian countries. METHODS: Patients enrolled in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database cohort and on cART for more than six months were analysed. Comorbidities included hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia and impaired renal function. Treatment outcomes of patients ≥50 years of age with comorbidities were compared with those <50 years and those ≥50 years without comorbidities. We analysed 5411 patients with virological failure and 5621 with immunologic failure. Our failure outcomes were defined to be in-line with the World Health Organization 2016 guidelines. Cox regression analysis was used to analyse time to first virological and immunological failure. RESULTS: The incidence of virologic failure was 7.72/100 person-years. Virological failure was less likely in patients with better adherence and higher CD4 count at cART initiation. Those acquiring HIV through intravenous drug use were more likely to have virological failure compared to those infected through heterosexual contact. On univariate analysis, patients aged <50 years without comorbidities were more likely to experience virological failure than those aged ≥50 years with comorbidities (hazard ratio 1.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.31 to 2.33, p < 0.001). However, the multivariate model showed that age-related comorbidities were not significant factors for virological failure (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.74, p = 0.07). There were 391 immunological failures, with an incidence of 2.75/100 person-years. On multivariate analysis, those aged <50 years without comorbidities (p = 0.025) and age <50 years with comorbidities (p = 0.001) were less likely to develop immunological failure compared to those aged ≥50 years with comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: In our Asia regional cohort, age-associated comorbidities did not affect virologic outcomes of cART. Among those with comorbidities, patients <50 years old showed a better CD4 response.

Trends in CD4 cell count response to first-line antiretroviral treatment in HIV-positive patients from Asia, 2003-2013: TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database Low Intensity Transfer.

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) guidelines have changed over the past decade, recommending earlier initiation and more tolerable regimens. The study objective was to examine the CD4 response to ART, depending on the year of ART initiation, in HIV-positive patients in the Asia-Pacific. We included HIV-positive adult patients who initiated ART between 2003 and 2013 in our regional cohort from eight urban referral centres in seven countries within Asia. We used mixed-effects linear regression models to evaluate differences in CD4 response by year of ART initiation during 36 months of follow-up, adjusted a priori for other covariates. Overall, 16,962 patients were included. Patients initiating in 2006-9 and 2010-13 had an estimated mean CD4 cell count increase of 8 and 15 cells/µl, respectively, at any given time during the 36-month follow-up, compared to those in 2003-5. The median CD4 cell count at ART initiation also increased from 96 cells/µl in 2003-5 to 173 cells/µl in 2010-13. Our results suggest that the CD4 response to ART is modestly higher for those initiating ART in more recent years. Moreover, fewer patients are presenting with lower absolute CD4 cell counts over time. This is likely to reduce their risk of opportunistic infections and future non-AIDS defining cancers.