Establishment of a novel scoring model for mortality risk prediction in HIV-infected patients with cryptococcal meningitis.

BACKGROUND: Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) remains a leading cause of death in HIV-infected patients, despite advances in CM diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. This study was performed with the aim to develop and validate a novel scoring model to predict mortality risk in HIV-infected patients with CM (HIV/CM). METHODS: Data on HIV/CM inpatients were obtained from a Multicenter Cohort study in China. Independent risk factors associated with mortality were identified based on data from 2013 to 2017, and a novel scoring model for mortality risk prediction was established. The bootstrapping statistical method was used for internal validation. External validation was performed using data from 2018 to 2020. RESULTS: We found that six predictors, including age, stiff neck, impaired consciousness, intracranial pressure, CD4+ T-cell count, and urea levels, were associated with poor prognosis in HIV/CM patients. The novel scoring model could effectively identify HIV/CM patients at high risk of death on admission (area under curve 0.876; p<0.001). When the cut-off value of 5.5 points or more was applied, the sensitivity and specificity was 74.1 and 83.8%, respectively. Our scoring model showed a good discriminatory ability, with an area under the curve of 0.879 for internal validation via bootstrapping, and an area under the curve of 0.886 for external validation. CONCLUSIONS: Our developed scoring model of six variables is simple, convenient, and accurate for screening high-risk patients with HIV/CM, which may be a useful tool for physicians to assess prognosis in HIV/CM inpatients.

[Analysis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) subtypes in HIV/HCV co-infected and HCV mono-infected individuals in Guangdong province].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the transmission routes, genotypes/subtypes distribution and genetic character of HCV in HIV/HCV co-infected and HCV mono-infected individuals in Guangdong Province. METHODS: Reverse transcription (RT) nested PCR was performed to amplify the HCV NS5B gene region from 95 HIV/HCV co-infected and 99 HCV mono-infected individuals lived in Guangdong province. The PCR products were then sequenced for HCV subtyping. Genetic analysis was done by MEGA4 software. RESULTS: (1) HIV/HCV co-infected individuals infected HCV mostly through injection drug use (IDU, 78.9%), the HCV subtypes were identified as 6a (53.7%), 3a (17.9%), 1b (15.8%), 3b (11.6%) and 1a (1.0%) respectively, the genetic distance within subtype 1b was longer than those within other subtypes, the predominant HCV subtype in HIV/HCV co-infected individuals infected through IDU was 6a (60.0%). (2) HCV mono-infected individuals infected HCV mostly through blood or blood products transfusions (80.8%), the HCV subtypes were identified as 1b (67.7%), 6a (17.2%), 3a (6.1%), 2a (5.0%), 3b (2.0%), 4a (1.0%) and 5a (1.0%) respectively, the genetic distance within subtype 1b was also longer than those within other subtypes, the predominant HCV subtype in HCV mono-infected individuals infected through blood or blood products transfusions was 1b (76.2%). CONCLUSION: The diversity of HCV subtypes in HIV/HCV co-infected and HCV mono-infected individuals in Guangdong Province was high, both the major transmission route and HCV subtype between HIV/HCV co-infected individuals and HCV mono-infected individuals were different.