Has Active Surveillance for Prostate Cancer Become Safer? Lessons Learned from a Global Clinical Registry.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Active surveillance (AS) has evolved into a widely applied treatment strategy for many men around the world with low-risk prostate cancer (or in selected cases intermediate-risk disease). Here, we report on the safety and acceptability of AS, and treatment outcomes for low- and intermediate-risk tumours over time in 14 623 men with follow-up of over 6 yr. METHODS: Clinical data from 26 999 men on AS from 25 cohorts in 15 countries have been collected in an international database from 2000 onwards. KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS: Across our predefined four time periods of 4 yr each (covering the period 2000-2016), there was no significant change in overall survival (OS). However, metastasis-free survival (MFS) rates have improved since the second period and were excellent (>99%). Treatment-free survival rates for earlier periods showed a slightly more rapid shift to radical treatment. Over time, there was a constant proportion of 5% of men for whom anxiety was registered as the reason for treatment alteration. There was, however, also a subset of 10-15% in whom treatment was changed, for which no apparent reason was available. In a subset of men (10-15%), tumour progression was the trigger for treatment. In men who opted for radical treatment, surgery was the most common treatment modality. In those men who underwent radical treatment, 90% were free from biochemical recurrence at 5 yr after treatment. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Our study confirms that AS was a safe management option over the full duration in this large multicentre cohort with long-term follow-up, given the 84.1% OS and 99.4% MFS at 10 yr. The probability of treatment at 10 yr was 20% in men with initial low-risk tumours and 31% in men with intermediate-risk tumours. New diagnostic modalities may improve the acceptability of follow-up using individual risk assessments, while safely broadening the use of AS in higher-risk tumours. PATIENT SUMMARY: Active surveillance (AS) has evolved into a widely applied treatment strategy for many men with prostate cancer around the world. In this report, we show the long-term safety of following AS for men with low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Our study confirms AS as a safe management option for low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer. New diagnostic modalities may improve the acceptability of follow-up using individual risk assessments, while safely broadening the use of AS in higher-risk tumours.

Pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Eastern versus Western countries: meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Locally advanced oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma can be treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy or chemotherapy followed by oesophagectomy. Discrepancies in pathological response rates have been reported between studies from Eastern versus Western countries. The aim of this study was to compare the pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in Eastern versus Western countries. METHODS: Databases were searched until November 2022 for studies reporting pCR rates after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Multi-level meta-analyses were performed to pool pCR rates separately for cohorts from studies performed in centres in the Sinosphere (East) or in Europe and the Anglosphere (West). RESULTS: For neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, 51 Eastern cohorts (5636 patients) and 20 Western cohorts (3039 patients) were included. Studies from Eastern countries included more men, younger patients, more proximal tumours, and more cT4 and cN+ disease. Patients in the West were more often treated with high-dose radiotherapy, whereas patients in the East were more often treated with a platinum + fluoropyrimidine regimen. The pooled pCR rate after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy was 31.7% (95% c.i. 29.5% to 34.1%) in Eastern cohorts versus 40.4% (95% c.i. 35.0% to 45.9%) in Western cohorts (fixed-effect P = 0.003). For cohorts with similar cTNM stages, pooled pCR rates for the East and the West were 32.5% and 41.9% respectively (fixed-effect P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: The pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy is less favourable in patients treated in Eastern countries compared with Western countries. Despite efforts to investigate accounting factors, the discrepancy in pCR rate cannot be entirely explained by differences in patient, tumour, or treatment characteristics.

Clinical and Imaging Characteristics, Care Pathways, and Outcomes of Traumatic Epidural Hematomas: A Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Guideline recommendations for surgical management of traumatic epidural hematomas (EDHs) do not directly address EDHs that co-occur with other intracranial hematomas; the relative rates of isolated vs nonisolated EDHs and guideline adherence are unknown. We describe characteristics of a contemporary cohort of patients with EDHs and identify factors influencing acute surgery. METHODS: This research was conducted within the longitudinal, observational Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury cohort study which prospectively enrolled patients with traumatic brain injury from 65 hospitals in 18 European countries from 2014 to 2017. All patients with EDH on the first scan were included. We describe clinical, imaging, management, and outcome characteristics and assess associations between site and baseline characteristics and acute EDH surgery, using regression modeling. RESULTS: In 461 patients with EDH, median age was 41 years (IQR 24-56), 76% were male, and median EDH volume was 5 cm3 (IQR 2-20). Concomitant acute subdural hematomas (ASDHs) and/or intraparenchymal hemorrhages were present in 328/461 patients (71%). Acute surgery was performed in 99/461 patients (21%), including 70/86 with EDH volume ≥30 cm3 (81%). Larger EDH volumes (odds ratio [OR] 1.19 [95% CI 1.14-1.24] per cm3 below 30 cm3), smaller ASDH volumes (OR 0.93 [95% CI 0.88-0.97] per cm3), and midline shift (OR 6.63 [95% CI 1.99-22.15]) were associated with acute surgery; between-site variation was observed (median OR 2.08 [95% CI 1.01-3.48]). Six-month Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended scores ≥5 occurred in 289/389 patients (74%); 41/389 (11%) died. CONCLUSION: Isolated EDHs are relatively infrequent, and two-thirds of patients harbor concomitant ASDHs and/or intraparenchymal hemorrhages. EDHs ≥30 cm3 are generally evacuated early, adhering to Brain Trauma Foundation guidelines. For heterogeneous intracranial pathology, surgical decision-making is related to clinical status and overall lesion burden. Further research should examine the optimal surgical management of EDH with concomitant lesions in traumatic brain injury, to inform updated guidelines.

Research Protocol for an Observational Health Data Analysis on the Adverse Events of Systemic Treatment in Patients with Metastatic Hormone-sensitive Prostate Cancer: Big Data Analytics Using the PIONEER Platform.

Combination therapies in metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC), which include the addition of an androgen receptor signaling inhibitor and/or docetaxel to androgen deprivation therapy, have been a game changer in the management of this disease stage. However, these therapies come with their fair share of toxicities and side effects. The goal of this observational study is to report drug-related adverse events (AEs), which are correlated with systemic combination therapies for mHSPC. Determining the optimal treatment option requires large cohorts to estimate the tolerability and AEs of these combination therapies in "real-life" patients with mHSPC, as provided in this study. We use a network of databases that includes population-based registries, electronic health records, and insurance claims, containing the overall target population and subgroups of patients defined by unique certain characteristics, demographics, and comorbidities, to compute the incidence of common AEs associated with systemic therapies in the setting of mHSPC. These data sources are standardised using the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model. We perform the descriptive statistics as well as calculate the AE incidence rate separately for each treatment group, stratified by age groups and index year. The time until the first event is estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method within each age group. In the case of episodic events, the anticipated mean cumulative counts of events are calculated. Our study will allow clinicians to tailor optimal therapies for mHSPC patients, and they will serve as a basis for comparative method studies.

Development and external validation of a clinical prediction model for predicting quality of recovery up to 1 week after surgery.

The Quality of Recovery Score-40 (QoR-40) has been increasingly used for assessing recovery after patients undergoing surgery. However, a prediction model estimating quality of recovery is lacking. The aim of the present study was to develop and externally validate a clinical prediction model that predicts quality of recovery up to one week after surgery. The modelling procedure consisted of two models of increasing complexity (basic and full model). To assess the internal validity of the developed model, bootstrapping (1000 times) was applied. At external validation, the model performance was evaluated according to measures for overall model performance (explained variance (R2)) and calibration (calibration plot and slope). The full model consisted of age, sex, previous surgery, BMI, ASA classification, duration of surgery, HADS and preoperative QoR-40 score. At model development, the R2 of the full model was 0.24. At external validation the R2 dropped as expected. The calibration analysis showed that the QoR-40 predictions provided by the developed prediction models are reliable. The presented models can be used as a starting point for future updating in prediction studies. When the predictive performance is improved it could be implemented clinically in the future.

The Effect of Nationwide Organized Cancer Screening Programs on Gastric Cancer Mortality: A Synthetic Control Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Nationwide organized gastric cancer (GC) screening programs have been running for decades in South Korea and Japan. This study conducted a quasi-experimental analysis to assess the population impact of these programs on GC mortality. METHODS: We used the flexible synthetic control method (SCM) to estimate the effect of the screening programs on age-standardized GC mortality and other upper gastrointestinal (UGI) diseases (esophageal cancer and peptic ulcer) among people aged ≥40 years. World Health Organization mortality data and country-level covariates from the World Bank and the Global Burden of Diseases study were used for the analyses. We compared postintervention trends in outcome with the counterfactual trend of the synthetic control and estimated average postintervention rate ratios (RRs) with associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A series of sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The preintervention fits were acceptable for the analyses of South Korea and Japan's GC mortality but poor for Japan's other UGI disease mortality. The average postintervention RRs were 0.83 (95% CI, 0.71-0.96) for GC mortality and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.57-0.90) for other UGI disease mortality in South Korea. The RR reached 0.59 by the 15th year after the initiation of nationwide screening. For Japan, the average RRs were 0.97 (95% CI, 0.88-1.07) for GC mortality and 0.93 (95% CI, 0.68-1.28) for other UGI disease mortality. Sensitivity analysis reveals the result for Japan may potentially be biased. CONCLUSIONS: South Korea's nationwide GC screening has apparent benefits, whereas the Japanese program's effectiveness is uncertain. The experiences of South Korea and Japan could serve as a reference for other countries.

Biopsy prostate cancer perineural invasion and tumour load are associated with positive posterolateral margins at radical prostatectomy: implications for planning of nerve-sparing surgery.

AIMS: Radical prostatectomy (RP) for prostate cancer is frequently complicated by erectile dysfunction and urinary incontinence. However, sparing of the nerve bundles adjacent to the posterolateral sides of the prostate reduces the number of complications at the risk of positive surgical margins. Preoperative selection of men eligible for safe, nerve-sparing surgery is therefore needed. Our aim was to identify pathological factors associated with positive posterolateral surgical margins in men undergoing bilateral nerve-sparing RP. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prostate cancer patients undergoing RP with standardised intra-operative surgical margin assessment according to the NeuroSAFE technique were included. Preoperative biopsies were reviewed for grade group (GG), cribriform and/or intraductal carcinoma (CR/IDC), perineural invasion (PNI), cumulative tumour length and extraprostatic extension (EPE). Of 624 included patients, 573 (91.8%) received NeuroSAFE bilaterally and 51 (8.2%) unilaterally, resulting in a total of 1197 intraoperative posterolateral surgical margin assessments. Side-specific biopsy findings were correlated to ipsilateral NeuroSAFE outcome. Higher biopsy GG, CR/IDC, PNI, EPE, number of positive biopsies and cumulative tumour length were all associated with positive posterolateral margins. In multivariable bivariate logistic regression, ipsilateral PNI [odds ratio (OR) = 2.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.62-5.48; P < 0.001] and percentage of positive cores (OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.08-1.29; P < 0.001) were significant predictors for a positive posterolateral margin, while GG and CR/IDC were not. CONCLUSIONS: Ipsilateral PNI and percentage of positive cores were significant predictors for a positive posterolateral surgical margin at RP. Biopsy PNI and tumour volume can therefore support clinical decision-making on the level of nerve-sparing surgery in prostate cancer patients.

The Patient Journey from Randomization to Detection of Prostate Cancer and Death: Results from ERSPC Rotterdam.

Background: The ERSPC study has demonstrated that prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based screening results in a relative increase in diagnosis of (low-risk) prostate cancer (PCa) and a reduction in metastatic disease and PCa mortality. Objective: To evaluate the burden of PCa among men randomized to active screening compared to those in the control arm in ERSPC Rotterdam. Design setting and participants: We analyzed data for participants in the Dutch section of the ERSPC, including 21 169 men randomized to the screening arm and 21 136 randomized to the control arm. Men in the screening arm were invited for PSA-based screening every 4 yr, and transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy was recommended for those with PSA ≥3.0 ng/ml. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: We analyzed detailed follow-up and mortality data up to January 1, 2019, to a maximum of 21 yr, using multistate models. Results and limitations: At 21 yr, 3046 men (14%) had been diagnosed with nonmetastatic PCa and 161 (0.76%) with metastatic PCa in the screening arm. In the control arm, 1698 men (8.0%) had been diagnosed with nonmetastatic PCa and 346 (1.6%) with metastatic PCa. In comparison to the control arm, men in the screening arm were diagnosed with PCa almost 1 yr earlier and if diagnosed with nonmetastatic PCa lived on average for almost 1 yr longer without disease progression. Among those who experienced biochemical recurrence (18-19% after nonmetastatic PCa), progression to metastatic disease or death was quicker in the control arm: men in the screening arm lived for 7.17 yr without progression, while the progression-free interval was only 1.59 yr for men in the control arm over a 10-yr time period. Among those who experienced metastatic disease, men in both study arms lived for 5 yr over a 10-yr time period. Conclusions: PCa diagnosis was earlier after study entry for men in the PSA-based screening arm. However, disease progression was not as fast in the screening arm as in the control arm: once men in the control arm experienced biochemical recurrence, progression to metastatic disease or death was 5.6 yr faster than in the screening arm. Our results confirm the ability of early disease detection to reduce suffering and death from PCa at the cost of earlier (and more frequent) treatment-induced reductions in quality of life. Patient summary: Our study shows that early detection of prostate cancer can reduce suffering and death from this disease. However, screening based on measurement of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) can also result in an earlier treatment-induced reduction in quality of life.

Are children with prolonged fever at a higher risk for serious illness? A prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the characteristics and clinical outcomes of children with fever ≥5 days presenting to emergency departments (EDs). DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: 12 European EDs. PATIENTS: Consecutive febrile children <18 years between January 2017 and April 2018. INTERVENTIONS: Children with fever ≥5 days and their risks for serious bacterial infection (SBI) were compared with children with fever <5 days, including diagnostic accuracy of non-specific symptoms, warning signs and C-reactive protein (CRP; mg/L). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: SBI and other non-infectious serious illness. RESULTS: 3778/35 705 (10.6%) of febrile children had fever ≥5 days. Incidence of SBI in children with fever ≥5 days was higher than in those with fever <5 days (8.4% vs 5.7%). Triage urgency, life-saving interventions and intensive care admissions were similar for fever ≥5 days and <5 days. Several warning signs had good rule in value for SBI with specificities >0.90, but were observed infrequently (range: 0.4%-17%). Absence of warning signs was not sufficiently reliable to rule out SBI (sensitivity 0.92 (95% CI 0.87-0.95), negative likelihood ratio (LR) 0.34 (0.22-0.54)). CRP <20 mg/L was useful for ruling out SBI (negative LR 0.16 (0.11-0.24)). There were 66 cases (1.7%) of non-infectious serious illnesses, including 21 cases of Kawasaki disease (0.6%), 28 inflammatory conditions (0.7%) and 4 malignancies. CONCLUSION: Children with prolonged fever have a higher risk of SBI, warranting a careful clinical assessment and diagnostic workup. Warning signs of SBI occurred infrequently but, if present, increased the likelihood of SBI. Although rare, clinicians should consider important non-infectious causes of prolonged fever.

Relationship Between Baseline Prostate-specific Antigen on Cancer Detection and Prostate Cancer Death: Long-term Follow-up from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The European Association of Urology guidelines recommend a risk-based strategy for prostate cancer screening based on the first prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and age. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of the first PSA level on prostate cancer (PCa) detection and PCa-specific mortality (PCSM) in a population-based screening trial (repeat screening every 2-4 yr). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We evaluated 25589 men aged 55-59 yr, 16898 men aged 60-64 yr, and 12936 men aged 65-69 yr who attended at least one screening visit in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) trial (screening arm: repeat PSA testing every 2-4 yr and biopsy in cases with elevated PSA; control arm: no active screening offered) during 16-yr follow-up (FU). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We assessed the actuarial probability for any PCa and for clinically significant (cs)PCa (Gleason ≥7). Cox proportional-hazards regression was performed to assess whether the association between baseline PSA and PCSM was comparable for all age groups. A Lorenz curve was computed to assess the association between baseline PSA and PCSM for men aged 60-61 yr. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The overall actuarial probability at 16 yr ranged from 12% to 16% for any PCa and from 3.7% to 5.7% for csPCa across the age groups. The actuarial probability of csPCa at 16 yr ranged from 1.2-1.5% for men with PSA <1.0 ng/ml to 13.3-13.8% for men with PSA ≥3.0 ng/ml. The association between baseline PSA and PCSM differed marginally among the three age groups. A Lorenz curve for men aged 60-61 yr showed that 92% of lethal PCa cases occurred among those with PSA above the median (1.21 ng/ml). In addition, for men initially screened at age 60-61 yr with baseline PSA <2 ng/ml, further continuation of screening is unlikely to be beneficial after the age of 68-70 yr if PSA is still <2 ng/ml. No case of PCSM emerged in the subsequent 8 yr (up to age 76-78 yr). A limitation is that these results may not be generalizable to an opportunistic screening setting or to contemporary clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: In all age groups, baseline PSA can guide decisions on the repeat screening interval. Baseline PSA of <1.0 ng/ml for men aged 55-69 yr is a strong indicator to delay or stop further screening. PATIENT SUMMARY: In prostate cancer screening, the patient's baseline PSA (prostate-specific antigen) level can be used to guide decisions on when to repeat screening. The PSA test when used according to current knowledge is valuable in helping to reduce the burden of prostate cancer.

Mapping European Association of Urology Guideline Practice Across Europe: An Audit of Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use Before Prostate Cancer Surgery in 6598 Cases in 187 Hospitals Across 31 European Countries.

BACKGROUND: Evidence-practice gaps exist in urology. We previously surveyed European Association of Urology (EAU) guidelines for strong recommendations underpinned by high-certainty evidence that impact patient experience for which practice variations were suspected. The recommendation "Do not offer neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) before surgery for patients with prostate cancer" was prioritised for further investigation. ADT before surgery is neither clinically effective nor cost effective and has serious side effects. The first step in improving implementation problems is to understand their extent. A clear picture of practice regarding ADT before surgery across Europe is not available. OBJECTIVE: To assess current ADT use before prostate cancer surgery in Europe. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was an observational cross-sectional study. We retrospectively audited recent ADT practices in a multicentre international setting. We used nonprobability purposive sampling, aiming for breadth in terms of low- versus high-volume, academic, versus community and public versus private centres. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Our primary outcome was adherence to the ADT recommendation. Descriptive statistics and a multilevel model were used to investigate differences between countries across different factors (volume, centre type, and funding type). Subgroup analyses were performed for patients with low, intermediate, and high risk, and for those with locally advanced prostate cancer. We also collected reasons for nonadherence. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: We included 6598 patients with prostate cancer from 187 hospitals in 31 countries from January 1, 2017 to May 1, 2020. Overall, nonadherence was 2%, (range 0-32%). Most of the variability was found in the high-risk subgroup, for which nonadherence was 4% (range 0-43%). Reasons for nonadherence included attempts to improve oncological outcomes or preoperative tumour parameters; attempts to control the cancer because of long waiting lists; and patient preference (changing one's mind from radiotherapy to surgery after neoadjuvant ADT had commenced or feeling that the side effects were intolerable). Although we purposively sampled for variety within countries (public/private, academic/community, high/low-volume), a selection bias toward centres with awareness of guidelines is possible, so adherence rates may be overestimated. CONCLUSIONS: EAU guidelines recommend against ADT use before prostate cancer surgery, yet some guideline-discordant ADT use remains at the cost of patient experience and an additional payer and provider burden. Strategies towards discontinuation of inappropriate preoperative ADT use should be pursued. PATIENT SUMMARY: Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is sometimes used in men with prostate cancer who will not benefit from it. ADT causes side effects such as weight gain and emotional changes and increases the risk of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and osteoporosis. Guidelines strongly recommend that men opting for surgery should not receive ADT, but it is unclear how well the guidance is followed. We asked urologists across Europe how patients in their institutions were treated over the past few years. Most do not use ADT before surgery, but this still happens in some places. More research is needed to help doctors to stop using ADT in patients who will not benefit from it.

Clinical consequences of nonadherence to Barrett's esophagus surveillance recommendations: a Multicenter prospective cohort study.

Half of Barrett's esophagus (BE) surveillance endoscopies do not adhere to guideline recommendations. In this multicenter prospective cohort study, we assessed the clinical consequences of nonadherence to recommended surveillance intervals and biopsy protocol. Data from BE surveillance patients were collected from endoscopy and pathology reports; questionnaires were distributed among endoscopists. We estimated the association between (non)adherence and (i) endoscopic curability of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), (ii) mortality, and (iii) misclassification of histological diagnosis according to a multistate hidden Markov model. Potential explanatory parameters (patient, facility, endoscopist variables) for nonadherence, related to clinical impact, were analyzed. In 726 BE patients, 3802 endoscopies were performed by 167 endoscopists. Adherence to surveillance interval was 16% for non-dysplastic (ND)BE, 55% for low-grade dysplasia (LGD), and 54% of endoscopies followed the Seattle protocol. There was no evidence to support the following statements: longer surveillance intervals or fewer biopsies than recommended affect endoscopic curability of EAC or cause-specific mortality (P > 0.20); insufficient biopsies affect the probability of NDBE (OR 1.0) or LGD (OR 2.3) being misclassified as high-grade dysplasia/EAC (P > 0.05). Better adherence was associated with older patients (OR 1.1), BE segments ≤ 2 cm (OR 8.3), visible abnormalities (OR 1.8, all P ≤ 0.05), endoscopists with a subspecialty (OR 3.2), and endoscopists who deemed histological diagnosis an adequate marker (OR 2.0). Clinical consequences of nonadherence to guidelines appeared to be limited with respect to endoscopic curability of EAC and mortality. This indicates that BE surveillance recommendations should be optimized to minimize the burden of endoscopies.

Influence of time metrics on the treatment effect of intravenous alteplase prior to endovascular treatment in MR CLEAN-NO IV.

BACKGROUND: We assessed whether the treatment effect of intravenous alteplase (IVT) prior to endovascular treatment (EVT) on functional outcome is modified by time metrics. METHODS: We used data from all patients included in MR CLEAN-NO IV, a randomized trial of IVT followed by EVT versus EVT alone in patients who presented directly to EVT-capable hospitals. The primary outcome was the modified Rankin Scale score at 90 days. We used ordinal regression with a multiplicative interaction term to assess if the effect of IVT is modified by onset-to-randomization (OTR), onset-to-IV-needle (OTN), door-to-groin (DTG) or needle-to-groin (NTG) times. Secondary outcomes included successful reperfusion (extended Thrombolysis In Cerebral Infarction Scale 2b-3) and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH). RESULTS: In 539 included patients (266 allocated to IVT+EVT and 273 to EVT alone), median workflow times were OTR: 93 (IQR 71-145) min; OTN: 98 (IQR 75-156) min; DTG: 64 (IQR 51-78) min; and NTG: 28 (IQR 20-41) min. There was a significant association between worse outcomes and longer time intervals for all metrics except NTG. We found no interaction between any of the time metrics and IVT for the effect on functional outcome (p values for interaction: OTR=0.40, OTN=0.39, DTG=0.61, NTG=0.56). We also did not observe any significant interaction for successful reperfusion or sICH. CONCLUSION: In MR CLEAN-NO IV, the effect of IVT prior to EVT was not modified by OTR, OTN, DTG or NTG times. Our results do not support the use of these metrics to guide IVT treatment decisions prior to EVT in comprehensive stroke centres. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN80619088.

Sociodemographic Characteristics and Screening Outcomes of Women Preferring Self-Sampling in the Dutch Cervical Cancer Screening Programme: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: In the Netherlands, lower high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) positivity but higher cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2+ detection were found in self-collected compared with clinician-collected samples. To investigate the possible reason for these differences, we compared sociodemographic and screening characteristics of women and related these to screening outcomes. METHODS: We extracted data from PALGA on all primary hrHPV screens and associated follow-up tests for 857,866 screened women, invited in 2017 and 2018. We linked these data with sociodemographic data from Statistics Netherlands. Logistic regression was performed for hrHPV positivity and CIN 2+/3+ detection. RESULTS: Out of the 857,866 women, 6.8% chose to use a self-sampling device. A higher proportion of self-sampling users was ages 30 to 35 years, was not previously screened, was living in a one-person household, or was the breadwinner in the household. After adjustment for these factors self-sampling had lower hrHPV positivity (aOR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.63-0.68)) as compared with clinician-collected sampling, as well as lower odds of CIN 2+ (aOR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.70-0.82) and CIN 3+ (aOR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.78-0.95) detection. CONCLUSIONS: It is likely that the observed differences between the two sampling methods are not only related to sociodemographic differences, but related to differences in screening test accuracy and/or background risk. IMPACT: Self-sampling can be used for targeting underscreened women, as a more convenient screening tool. Further investigation is required to evaluate how to implement self-sampling, when it is used as a primary instrument in routine screening. See related commentary by Arbyn et al., p. 159.

Faecal occult blood loss accurately predicts future detection of colorectal cancer. A prognostic model.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the prognostic potential of repeated faecal haemoglobin (F-Hb) concentration measurements in faecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). DESIGN: Prognostic model. SETTING: Dutch biennial FIT-based screening programme during 2014-2018. PARTICIPANTS: 265 881 participants completing three rounds of FIT, with negative test results (F-Hb <47 µg Hb/g faeces) in rounds 1 and 2. INTERVENTIONS: Colonoscopy follow-up in participants with a positive FIT (F-Hb ≥47 µg Hb/g faeces). MAIN OUTCOMES: We evaluated prognostic models for detecting advanced neoplasia (AN) and CRC in round 3, with as predictors, participant age, sex, F-Hb in rounds 1 and 2, and categories/combinations/non-linear transformations of F-Hb. Primary evaluation criteria included: risk prediction accuracy (calibration), discrimination of participants with versus without AN or CRC (optimism-adjusted C-statistics, range 0.5-1.0), the degree of risk stratification and C-statistics in external validation. RESULTS: Among study participants, 8806 (3.3%) had a positive FIT result, 3254 (1.2%) had AN detected and 557 (0.2%) had cancer. F-Hb concentrations in rounds 1 and 2 were the strongest outcome predictors, with adjusted ORs of up to 9.4 (95% CI 7.5 to 11.7) for the highest F-Hb category. Risk predictions matched the observed risk for most participants (calibration intercept -0.008 to -0.099; slope 0.982-0.998), and discriminated participants with versus without AN or CRC with C-statistics of 0.78 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.79) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.75), respectively. The predicted risk ranged from 0.4% to 36.7% for AN and from 0.0% to 5.5% for CRC across participants. In external validation, the model retained similar discrimination accuracy for AN (C-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.87) and CRC (C-statistic 0.78, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.91). CONCLUSION: Participants at lower versus higher risk of future AN or CRC can be accurately identified based on their age, sex and particularly, prior F-Hb concentrations. Risk stratification should be considered based on this information.

Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for 1-Year Mortality in Patients With Advanced Cancer.

Importance: To optimize palliative care in patients with cancer who are in their last year of life, timely and accurate prognostication is needed. However, available instruments for prognostication, such as the surprise question ("Would I be surprised if this patient died in the next year?") and various prediction models using clinical variables, are not well validated or lack discriminative ability. Objective: To develop and validate a prediction model to calculate the 1-year risk of death among patients with advanced cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter prospective prognostic study was performed in the general oncology inpatient and outpatient clinics of 6 hospitals in the Netherlands. A total of 867 patients were enrolled between June 2 and November 22, 2017, and followed up for 1 year. The primary analyses were performed from October 9 to 25, 2019, with the most recent analyses performed from June 19 to 22, 2022. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to develop a prediction model including 3 categories of candidate predictors: clinician responses to the surprise question, patient clinical characteristics, and patient laboratory values. Data on race and ethnicity were not collected because most patients were expected to be of White race and Dutch ethnicity, and race and ethnicity were not considered as prognostic factors. The models' discriminative ability was assessed using internal-external validation by study hospital and measured using the C statistic. Patients 18 years and older with locally advanced or metastatic cancer were eligible. Patients with hematologic cancer were excluded. Main Outcomes and Measures: The risk of death by 1 year. Results: Among 867 patients, the median age was 66 years (IQR, 56-72 years), and 411 individuals (47.4%) were male. The 1-year mortality rate was 41.6% (361 patients). Three prediction models with increasing complexity were developed: (1) a simple model including the surprise question, (2) a clinical model including the surprise question and clinical characteristics (age, cancer type prognosis, visceral metastases, brain metastases, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, weight loss, pain, and dyspnea), and (3) an extended model including the surprise question, clinical characteristics, and laboratory values (hemoglobin, C-reactive protein, and serum albumin). The pooled C statistic was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67-0.71) for the simple model, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.73-0.78) for the clinical model, and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.76-0.80) for the extended model. A nomogram and web-based calculator were developed to support clinicians in adequately caring for patients with advanced cancer. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, a prediction model including the surprise question, clinical characteristics, and laboratory values had better discriminative ability in predicting death among patients with advanced cancer than models including the surprise question, clinical characteristics, or laboratory values alone. The nomogram and web-based calculator developed for this study can be used by clinicians to identify patients who may benefit from palliative care and advance care planning. Further exploration of the feasibility and external validity of the model is needed.

Performance of the IMPACT and Helsinki models for predicting 6-month outcomes in a cohort of patients with traumatic brain injury undergoing cranial surgery.

Background and aim: Prediction models for patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) require generalizability and should apply to different settings. We aimed to validate the IMPACT and Helsinki prognostic models in patients with TBI who underwent cranial surgery in a Chinese center. Methods: This validation study included 607 surgical patients with moderate to severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score ≤12) who were consecutively admitted to the Neurotrauma Center of People's Liberation Army (PLANC), China, between 2009 and 2021. The IMPACT models (core, extended and lab) and the Helsinki CT clinical model were used to estimate 6-month mortality and unfavorable outcomes. To assess performance, we studied discrimination and calibration. Results: In the PLANC database, the observed 6-month mortality rate was 28%, and the 6-month unfavorable outcome was 52%. Significant differences in case mix existed between the PLANC cohort and the development populations for the IMPACT and, to a lesser extent, for the Helsinki models. Discrimination of the IMPACT and Helsinki models was excellent, with most AUC values ≥0.80. The highest values were found for the IMPACT lab model (AUC 0.87) and the Helsinki CT clinical model (AUC 0.86) for the prediction of unfavorable outcomes. Overestimation was found for all models, but the degree of miscalibration was lower in the Helsinki CT clinical model. Conclusion: In our population of surgical TBI patients, the IMPACT and Helsinki CT clinical models demonstrated good performance, with excellent discrimination but suboptimal calibration. The good discrimination confirms the validity of the predictors, but the poorer calibration suggests a need to recalibrate the models to specific settings.

Validation and update of a prediction model for risk of relapse after cessation of anti-TNF treatment in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy is effective for the treatment of Crohn's disease. Cessation may be considered in patients with a low risk of relapse. We aimed to externally validate and update our previously developed prediction model to estimate the risk of relapse after cessation of anti-TNF therapy. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in 17 Dutch hospitals. Crohn's disease patients in clinical, biochemical or endoscopic remission were included after anti-TNF cessation. Primary outcome was a relapse necessitating treatment. Discrimination and calibration of the previously developed model were assessed. After external validation, the model was updated. The performance of the updated prediction model was assessed in internal-external validation and by using decision curve analysis. RESULTS: 486 patients were included with a median follow-up of 1.7 years. Relapse rates were 35 and 54% after 1 and 2 years. At external validation, the discriminative ability of the prediction model was equal to that found at the development of the model [c-statistic 0.58 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-0.62)], though the model was not well-calibrated on our cohort [calibration slope: 0.52 (0.28-0.76)]. After an update, a c-statistic of 0.60 (0.58-0.63) and calibration slope of 0.89 (0.69-1.09) were reported in internal-external validation. CONCLUSION: Our previously developed and updated prediction model for the risk of relapse after cessation of anti-TNF in Crohn's disease shows reasonable performance. The use of the model may support clinical decision-making to optimize patient selection in whom anti-TNF can be withdrawn. Clinical validation is ongoing in a prospective randomized trial.

Active Surveillance for Men Younger than 60 Years or with Intermediate-risk Localized Prostate Cancer. Descriptive Analyses of Clinical Practice in the Movember GAP3 Initiative.

Background: Active surveillance (AS) is a management option for men diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer. Opinions differ on whether it is safe to include young men (≤60 yr) or men with intermediate-risk disease. Objective: To assess whether reasons for discontinuation, treatment choice after AS, and adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy (RP; N1, or ≥GG3, or ≥pT3) differ for men ≤60 yr or those with European Association of Urology (EAU) intermediate-risk disease from those for men >60 yr or those with EAU low-risk disease. Design setting and participants: We analyzed data from 5411 men ≤60 yr and 14 959 men >60 yr, 14 064 men with low-risk cancer, and 2441 men with intermediate-risk cancer, originating from the GAP3 database (21 169 patients/27 cohorts worldwide). Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: Cumulative incidence curves were used to estimate the rates of AS discontinuation and treatment choice. Results and limitations: The probability of discontinuation of AS due to disease progression at 5 yr was similar for men aged ≤60 yr (22%) and those >60 yr (25%), as well as those of any age with low-risk disease (24%) versus those with intermediate-risk disease (24%). Men with intermediate-risk disease are more prone to discontinue AS without evidence of progression than men with low-risk disease (at 1/5 yr: 5.9%/14.2% vs 2.0%/8.8%). Adverse pathology at RP was observed in 32% of men ≤60 yr compared with 36% of men >60 yr (p = 0.029), and in 34% with low-risk disease compared with 40% with intermediate-risk disease (p = 0.048). Conclusions: Our descriptive analysis of AS practices worldwide showed that the risk of progression during AS is similar across the age and risk groups studied. The proportion of adverse pathology was higher among men >60 yr than among men ≤60 yr. These results suggest that men ≤60 yr and those with EAU intermediate-risk disease should not be excluded from opting for AS as initial management. Patient summary: Data from 27 international centers reflecting daily clinical practice suggest that younger men or men with intermediate-risk prostate cancer do not hold greater risk for disease progression during active surveillance.