Using mathematical modeling to inform health policy: A case study from voluntary medical male circumcision scale-up in eastern and southern Africa and proposed framework for success.

BACKGROUND: Modeling contributes to health program planning by allowing users to estimate future outcomes that are otherwise difficult to evaluate. However, modeling results are often not easily translated into practical policies. This paper examines the barriers and enabling factors that can allow models to better inform health decision-making. DESCRIPTION: The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) and its successor, DMPPT 2, are illustrative examples of modeling tools that have been used to inform health policy. Their use underpinned Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) scale-up for HIV prevention in southern and eastern Africa. Both examine the impact and cost-effectiveness of VMMC scale-up, with DMPPT used initially in global advocacy and DMPPT 2 then providing VMMC coverage estimates by client age and subnational region for use in country-specific program planning. Their application involved three essential steps: identifying and engaging a wide array of stakeholders from the outset, reaching consensus on key assumptions and analysis plans, and convening data validation meetings with critical stakeholders. The subsequent DMPPT 2 Online is a user-friendly tool for in-country modeling analyses and continuous program planning and monitoring. LESSONS LEARNED: Through three iterations of the DMPPT applied to VMMC, a comprehensive framework with six steps was identified: (1) identify a champion, (2) engage stakeholders early and often, (3) encourage consensus, (4) customize analyses, (5), build capacity, and (6) establish a plan for sustainability. This framework could be successfully adapted to other HIV prevention programs to translate modeling results to policy and programming. CONCLUSIONS: Models can be used to mobilize support, strategically plan, and monitor key programmatic elements, but they can also help inform policy environments in which programs are conceptualized and implemented to achieve results. The ways in which modeling has informed VMMC programs and policy may be applicable to an array of other health interventions.

Data triangulation to estimate age-specific coverage of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention in four Kenyan counties.

BACKGROUND: Kenya is 1 of 14 priority countries in Africa scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention following the recommendations of the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. To inform VMMC target setting, we modeled the impact of circumcising specific client age groups across several Kenyan geographic areas. METHODS: The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2 (DMPPT 2) was applied in Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori counties. Initial modeling done in mid-2016 showed coverage estimates above 100% in age groups and geographic areas where demand for VMMC continued to be high. On the basis of information obtained from country policy makers and VMMC program implementers, we adjusted circumcision coverage for duplicate reporting, county-level population estimates, migration across county boundaries for VMMC services, and replacement of traditional circumcision with circumcisions in the VMMC program. To address residual inflated coverage following these adjustments we applied county-specific correction factors computed by triangulating model results with coverage estimates from population surveys. RESULTS: A program record review identified duplicate reporting in Homa Bay, Kisumu, and Siaya. Using county population estimates from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, we found that adjusting for migration and correcting for replacement of traditional circumcision with VMMC led to lower estimates of 2016 male circumcision coverage especially for Kisumu, Migori, and Siaya. Even after addressing these issues, overestimation of 2016 male circumcision coverage persisted, especially in Homa Bay. We estimated male circumcision coverage in 2016 by applying correction factors. Modeled estimates for 2016 circumcision coverage for the 10- to 14-year age group ranged from 50% in Homa Bay to approximately 90% in Kisumu. Results for the 15- to 19-year age group suggest almost complete coverage in Kisumu, Migori, and Siaya. Coverage for the 20- to 24-year age group ranged from about 80% in Siaya to about 90% in Homa Bay, coverage for those aged 25-29 years ranged from about 60% in Siaya to 80% in Migori, and coverage in those aged 30-34 years ranged from about 50% in Siaya to about 70% in Migori. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis points to solutions for some of the data issues encountered in Kenya. Kenya is the first country in which these data issues have been encountered because baseline circumcision rates were high. We anticipate that some of the modeling methods we developed for Kenya will be applicable in other countries.

Counseling Received by Adolescents Undergoing Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Moving Toward Age-Equitable Comprehensive Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention Measures.

Background: The minimum package of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services, as defined by the World Health Organization, includes human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing, HIV prevention counseling, screening/treatment for sexually transmitted infections, condom promotion, and the VMMC procedure. The current study aimed to assess whether adolescents received these key elements. Methods: Quantitative surveys were conducted among male adolescents aged 10-19 years (n = 1293) seeking VMMC in South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. We used a summative index score of 8 self-reported binary items to measure receipt of important elements of the World Health Organization-recommended HIV minimum package and the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief VMMC recommendations. Counseling sessions were observed for a subset of adolescents (n = 44). To evaluate factors associated with counseling content, we used Poisson regression models with generalized estimating equations and robust variance estimation. Results: Although counseling included VMMC benefits, little attention was paid to risks, including how to identify complications, what to do if they arise, and why avoiding sex and masturbation could prevent complications. Overall, older adolescents (aged 15-19 years) reported receiving more items in the recommended minimum package than younger adolescents (aged 10-14 years; adjusted ß, 0.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], .12-.21; P < .001). Older adolescents were also more likely to report receiving HIV test education and promotion (42.7% vs 29.5%; adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR], 1.53; 95% CI, 1.16-2.02) and a condom demonstration with condoms to take home (16.8% vs 4.4%; aPR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.30-4.58). No significant age differences appeared in reports of explanations of VMMC risks and benefits or uptake of HIV testing. These self-reported findings were confirmed during counseling observations. Conclusions: Moving toward age-equitable HIV prevention services during adolescent VMMC likely requires standardizing counseling content, as there are significant age differences in HIV prevention content received by adolescents.

Scaling Up Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention for Adolescents and Young Adult Men: A Modeling Analysis of Implementation and Impact in Selected Countries.

Background: The new World Health Organization and Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS strategic framework for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) aims to increase VMMC coverage among males aged 10-29 years in priority settings to 90% by 2021. We use mathematical modeling to assess the likelihood that selected countries will achieve this objective, given their historical VMMC progress and current implementation options. Methods: We use the Decision Makers' Program Planning Toolkit, version 2, to examine 4 ambitious but feasible scenarios for scaling up VMMC coverage from 2017 through 2021, inclusive in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Results: Tanzania is the only country that would reach the goal of 90% VMMC coverage in 10- to 29-year-olds by the end of 2021 in the scenarios assessed, and this was true in 3 of the scenarios studied. Mozambique, South Africa, and Lesotho would come close to reaching the objective only in the most ambitious scenario examined. Conclusions: Major changes in VMMC implementation in most countries will be required to increase the proportion of circumcised 10- to 29-year-olds to 90% by the end of 2021. Scaling up VMMC coverage in males aged 10-29 years will require significantly increasing the number of circumcisions provided to 10- to 14-year-olds and 15- to 29-year-olds.

Modeling Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Increased Efforts to Attract Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Clients Ages 20-29 in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Zimbabwe aims to increase circumcision coverage to 80% among 13- to 29-year-olds. However, implementation data suggest that high coverage among men ages 20 and older may not be achievable without efforts specifically targeted to these men, incurring additional costs per circumcision. Scale-up scenarios were created based on trends in implementation data in Zimbabwe, and the cost-effectiveness of increasing efforts to recruit clients ages 20-29 was examined. METHODS: Zimbabwe voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program data were used to project trends in male circumcision coverage by age into the future. The projection informed a base scenario in which, by 2018, the country achieves 80% circumcision coverage among males ages 10-19 and lower levels of coverage among men above age 20. The Zimbabwe DMPPT 2.0 model was used to project costs and impacts, assuming a US$109 VMMC unit cost in the base scenario and a 3% discount rate. Two other scenarios assumed that the program could increase coverage among clients ages 20-29 with a corresponding increase in unit cost for these age groups. RESULTS: When circumcision coverage among men ages 20-29 is increased compared with a base scenario reflecting current implementation trends, fewer VMMCs are required to avert one infection. If more than 50% additional effort (reflected as multiplying the unit cost by >1.5) is required to double the increase in coverage among this age group compared with the base scenario, the cost per HIV infection averted is higher than in the base scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Although increased investment in recruiting VMMC clients ages 20-29 may lead to greater overall impact if recruitment efforts are successful, it may also lead to lower cost-effectiveness, depending on the cost of increasing recruitment. Programs should measure the relationship between increased effort and increased ability to attract this age group.

Cost and Impact of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in South Africa: Focusing the Program on Specific Age Groups and Provinces.

BACKGROUND: In 2012, South Africa set a goal of circumcising 4.3 million men ages 15-49 by 2016. By the end of March 2014, 1.9 million men had received voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC). In an effort to accelerate progress, South Africa undertook a modeling exercise to determine whether circumcising specific client age groups or geographic locations would be particularly impactful or cost-effective. Results will inform South Africa's efforts to develop a national strategy and operational plan for VMMC. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The study team populated the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0) with HIV incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM), as well as national and provincial population and HIV prevalence estimates. We derived baseline circumcision rates from the 2012 South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey. The model showed that circumcising men ages 20-34 offers the most immediate impact on HIV incidence and requires the fewest circumcisions per HIV infection averted. The greatest impact over a 15-year period is achieved by circumcising men ages 15-24. When the model assumes a unit cost increase with client age, men ages 15-29 emerge as the most cost-effective group. When we assume a constant cost for all ages, the most cost-effective age range is 15-34 years. Geographically, the program is cost saving in all provinces; differences in the VMMC program's cost-effectiveness across provinces were obscured by uncertainty in HIV incidence projections. CONCLUSION: The VMMC program's impact and cost-effectiveness vary by age-targeting strategy. A strategy focusing on men ages 15-34 will maximize program benefits. However, because clients older than 25 access VMMC services at low rates, South Africa could consider promoting demand among men ages 25-34, without denying services to those in other age groups. Uncertainty in the provincial estimates makes them insufficient to support geographic targeting.

Modeling Costs and Impacts of Introducing Early Infant Male Circumcision for Long-Term Sustainability of the Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Program.

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been shown to be an effective prevention strategy against HIV infection in males [1-3]. Since 2007, the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has supported VMMC programs in 14 priority countries in Africa. Today several of these countries are preparing to transition their VMMC programs from a scale-up and expansion phase to a maintenance phase. As they do so, they must consider the best approaches to sustain high levels of male circumcision in the population. The two alternatives under consideration are circumcising adolescents 10-14 years old over the long term or integrating early infant male circumcision (EIMC) into maternal and child health programs. The paper presents an analysis, using the Decision Makers Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), of the estimated cost and impact of introducing EIMC into existing VMMC programs in several countries in eastern and southern Africa. Limited cost data exist for the implementation of EIMC, but preliminary studies, such as the one detailed in Mangenah, et al. [4-5], suggest that the cost of EIMC may be less than that of adolescent and adult male circumcision. If this is the case, then adding EIMC to the VMMC program will increase the number of circumcisions that need to be performed but will not increase the total cost of the program over the long term. In addition, we found that a delayed or slow start-up of EIMC would not substantially reduce the impact of adding it to the program or increase cumulative long-term costs, which should make introduction of EIMC more feasible and attractive to countries contemplating such a program innovation.

Modeling the Impact of Uganda's Safe Male Circumcision Program: Implications for Age and Regional Targeting.

BACKGROUND: Uganda aims to provide safe male circumcision (SMC) to 80% of men ages 15-49 by 2016. To date, only 2 million men have received SMC of the 4.2 million men required. In response to age and regional trends in SMC uptake, the country sought to re-examine its targets with respect to age and subnational region, to assess the program's progress, and to refine the implementation approach. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), was used in conjunction with incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM) to conduct this analysis. Population, births, deaths, and HIV incidence and prevalence were used to populate the model. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the 2011 AIDS Indicator Survey. Uganda can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising men ages 20-34. This group will also require the fewest circumcisions for each HIV infection averted. Focusing on men ages 10-19 will offer the greatest impact over a 15-year period, while focusing on men ages 15-34 offers the most cost-effective strategy over the same period. A regional analysis showed little variation in cost-effectiveness of scaling up SMC across eight regions. Scale-up is cost-saving in all regions. There is geographic variability in program progress, highlighting two regions with low baseline rates of circumcision where additional efforts will be needed. CONCLUSION: Focusing SMC efforts on specific age groups and regions may help to accelerate Uganda's SMC program progress. Policy makers in Uganda have already used model outputs in planning efforts, proposing males ages 10-34 as a priority group for SMC in the 2014 application to the Global Fund's new funding model. As scale-up continues, the country should also consider a greater effort to expand SMC in regions with low MC prevalence.

The Economic and Epidemiological Impact of Focusing Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention on Specific Age Groups and Regions in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Since its launch in 2010, the Tanzania National Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) Program has focused efforts on males ages 10-34 in 11 priority regions. Implementers have noted that over 70% of VMMC clients are between the ages of 10 and 19, raising questions about whether additional efforts would be required to recruit men age 20 and above. This analysis uses mathematical modeling to examine the economic and epidemiological consequences of scaling up VMMC among specific age groups and priority regions in Tanzania. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Analyses were conducted using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), a compartmental model implemented in Microsoft Excel 2010. The model was populated with population, mortality, and HIV incidence and prevalence projections from external sources, including outputs from Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM). A separate DMPPT 2.0 model was created for each of the 11 priority regions. Tanzania can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising males ages 20-34. This strategy would also require the fewest VMMCs for each HIV infection averted. Circumcising men ages 10-24 will have the greatest impact on HIV incidence over a 15-year period. The most cost-effective approach (lowest cost per HIV infection averted) targets men ages 15-34. The model shows the VMMC program is cost saving in all 11 priority regions. VMMC program cost-effectiveness varies across regions due to differences in projected HIV incidence, with the most cost-effective programs in Njombe and Iringa. CONCLUSIONS: The DMPPT 2.0 results reinforce Tanzania's current VMMC strategy, providing newfound confidence in investing in circumcising adolescents. Tanzanian policy makers and program implementers will continue to focus scale-up of VMMC on men ages 10-34 years, seeking to maximize program impact and cost-effectiveness while acknowledging trends in demand among the younger and older age groups.

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Malawi: Modeling the Impact and Cost of Focusing the Program by Client Age and Geography.

BACKGROUND: In 2007, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) in priority countries with high HIV prevalence and low male circumcision (MC) prevalence. According to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), an estimated 5.8 million males had undergone VMMC by the end of 2013. Implementation experience has raised questions about the need to refocus VMMC programs on specific subpopulations for the greatest epidemiological impact and programmatic effectiveness. As Malawi prepared its national operational plan for VMMC, it sought to examine the impacts of focusing on specific subpopulations by age and region. METHODS: We used the Decision Makers' Program Planning Toolkit, Version 2.0, to study the impact of scaling up VMMC to different target populations of Malawi. National MC prevalence by age group from the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey was scaled according to the MC prevalence for each district and then halved, to adjust for over-reporting of circumcision. In-country stakeholders advised a VMMC unit cost of $100, based on implementation experience. We derived a cost of $451 per patient-year for antiretroviral therapy from costs collected as part of a strategic planning exercise previously conducted in- country by UNAIDS. RESULTS: Over a fifteen-year period, circumcising males ages 10-29 would avert 75% of HIV infections, and circumcising males ages 10-34 would avert 88% of infections, compared to the current strategy of circumcising males ages 15-49. The Ministry of Health's South West and South East health zones had the lowest cost per HIV infection averted. Moreover, VMMC met WHO's definition of cost-effectiveness (that is, the cost per disability-adjusted life-year [DALY] saved was less than three times the per capita gross domestic product) in all health zones except Central East. Comparing urban versus rural areas in the country, we found that circumcising men in urban areas would be both cost-effective and cost-saving, with a VMMC cost per DALY saved of $120 USD and with 15 years of VMMC implementation resulting in lifetime HIV treatment costs savings of $331 million USD. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the age analyses and programmatic experience, Malawi's VMMC operational plan focuses on males ages 10-34 in all districts in the South East and South West zones, as well as Lilongwe (an urban district in the Central zone). This plan covers 14 of the 28 districts in the country.

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Swaziland: Modeling the Impact of Age Targeting.

BACKGROUND: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention has been a priority for Swaziland since 2009. Initially focusing on men ages 15-49, the Ministry of Health reduced the minimum age for VMMC from 15 to 10 years in 2012, given the existing demand among 10- to 15-year-olds. To understand the implications of focusing VMMC service delivery on specific age groups, the MOH undertook a modeling exercise to inform policy and implementation in 2013-2014. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The impact and cost of circumcising specific age groups were assessed using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), a simple compartmental model. We used age-specific HIV incidence from the Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey (SHIMS). Population, mortality, births, and HIV prevalence were imported from a national Spectrum/Goals model recently updated in consultation with country stakeholders. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the most recent Swaziland Demographic and Health Survey. The lowest numbers of VMMCs per HIV infection averted are achieved when males ages 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34 are circumcised, although the uncertainty bounds for the estimates overlap. Circumcising males ages 25-29 and 20-24 provides the most immediate reduction in HIV incidence. Circumcising males ages 15-19, 20-24, and 25-29 provides the greatest magnitude incidence reduction within 15 years. The lowest cost per HIV infection averted is achieved by circumcising males ages 15-34: $870 U.S. dollars (USD). CONCLUSIONS: The potential impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of VMMC scale-up in Swaziland are not uniform. They vary by the age group of males circumcised. Based on the results of this modeling exercise, the Ministry of Health's Swaziland Male Circumcision Strategic and Operational Plan 2014-2018 adopted an implementation strategy that calls for circumcision to be scaled up to 50% coverage for neonates, 80% among males ages 10-29, and 55% among males ages 30-34.

Age Targeting of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Programs Using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Toolkit (DMPPT) 2.0.

BACKGROUND: Despite considerable efforts to scale up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention in priority countries over the last five years, implementation has faced important challenges. Seeking to enhance the effect of VMMC programs for greatest and most immediate impact, the U. S. President's Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) supported the development and application of a model to inform national planning in five countries from 2013-2014. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Decision Makers' Program Planning Toolkit (DMPPT) 2.0 is a simple compartmental model designed to analyze the effects of client age and geography on program impact and cost. The DMPPT 2.0 model was applied in Malawi, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, and Uganda to assess the impact and cost of scaling up age-targeted VMMC coverage. The lowest number of VMMCs per HIV infection averted would be produced by circumcising males ages 20-34 in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda and males ages 15-34 in Swaziland. The most immediate impact on HIV incidence would be generated by circumcising males ages 20-34 in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda and males ages 20-29 in Swaziland. The greatest reductions in HIV incidence over a 15-year period would be achieved by strategies focused on males ages 10-19 in Uganda, 15-24 in Malawi and South Africa, 10-24 in Tanzania, and 15-29 in Swaziland. In all countries, the lowest cost per HIV infection averted would be achieved by circumcising males ages 15-34, although in Uganda this cost is the same as that attained by circumcising 15- to 49-year-olds. CONCLUSIONS: The efficiency, immediacy of impact, magnitude of impact, and cost-effectiveness of VMMC scale-up are not uniform; there is important variation by age group of the males circumcised and countries should plan accordingly.

Safety and Acceptability of the PrePex Device When Used in Routine Male Circumcision Service Delivery During Active Surveillance in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Male circumcision devices have the potential to accelerate voluntary medical male circumcision roll-out, with PrePex being one promising device. Here, we present findings on safety and acceptability from active surveillance of the implementation of PrePex among 1000 males circumcised in Zimbabwe. METHODS: The first 1000 men consecutively circumcised using PrePex during routine service delivery were actively followed up. Outcome measures included PrePex uptake, attendance for postcircumcision visits, and adverse events (AEs). A survey was conducted among 500 consecutive active surveillance clients to assess acceptability and satisfaction with PrePex. RESULTS: A total of 2156 men aged 18 years or older were circumcised across the 6 PrePex active surveillance sites. Of these, 1000 (46.4%) were circumcised using PrePex. Among them, 4 (0.4%) self-removals that required surgery (severe AEs) were observed. Six (0.6%) removals by providers (moderate AEs) did not require surgery. A further 280 (28%) AEs were mild or moderate pain during device removal. There were also 12 (1.2%) moderate AEs unrelated to pain. All AEs resolved without sequelae. There was high adherence to follow-up appointments, with 97.7% of clients attending the scheduled day 7 visit. Acceptability of PrePex was high among survey participants, 93% indicated willingness to recommend the device to peers. Of note, 95.8% of respondents reported experiencing pain when the device was being removed. Additionally, 85.2% reported experiencing odor while wearing the device or during removal. CONCLUSIONS: Active surveillance of the first 1000 men circumcised using PrePex suggests that the device is both safe and acceptable when used in routine service delivery.

Investigating Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Program Efficiency Gains through Subpopulation Prioritization: Insights from Application to Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are scaling-up voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) as an HIV intervention. Emerging challenges in these programs call for increased focus on program efficiency (optimizing program impact while minimizing cost). A novel analytic approach was developed to determine how subpopulation prioritization can increase program efficiency using an illustrative application for Zambia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A population-level mathematical model was constructed describing the heterosexual HIV epidemic and impact of VMMC programs (age-structured mathematical (ASM) model). The model stratified the population according to sex, circumcision status, age group, sexual-risk behavior, HIV status, and stage of infection. A three-level conceptual framework was also developed to determine maximum epidemic impact and program efficiency through subpopulation prioritization, based on age, geography, and risk profile. In the baseline scenario, achieving 80% VMMC coverage by 2017 among males 15-49 year old, 12 VMMCs were needed per HIV infection averted (effectiveness). The cost per infection averted (cost-effectiveness) was USD $1,089 and 306,000 infections were averted. Through age-group prioritization, effectiveness ranged from 11 (20-24 age-group) to 36 (45-49 age-group); cost-effectiveness ranged from $888 (20-24 age-group) to $3,300 (45-49 age-group). Circumcising 10-14, 15-19, or 20-24 year old achieved the largest incidence rate reduction; prioritizing 15-24, 15-29, or 15-34 year old achieved the greatest program efficiency. Through geographic prioritization, effectiveness ranged from 9-12. Prioritizing Lusaka achieved the highest effectiveness. Through risk-group prioritization, prioritizing the highest risk group achieved the highest effectiveness, with only one VMMC needed per infection averted; the lowest risk group required 80 times more VMMCs. CONCLUSION: Epidemic impact and efficiency of VMMC programs can be improved by prioritizing young males (sexually active or just before sexual debut), geographic areas with higher HIV prevalence than the national, and high sexual-risk groups.

Voluntary medical male circumcision in resource-constrained settings.

Throughout East and Southern Africa, the WHO recommends voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) to reduce heterosexual HIV acquisition. Evidence has informed policy and the implementation of VMMC programmes in these countries. VMMC has been incorporated into the HIV prevention portfolio and more than 9 million VMMCs have been performed. Conventional surgical procedures consist of forceps-guided, dorsal slit or sleeve resection techniques. Devices are also becoming available that might help to accelerate the scale-up of adult VMMC. The ideal device should make VMMC easier, safer, faster, sutureless, inexpensive, less painful, require less infrastructure, be more acceptable to patients and should not require follow-up visits. Elastic collar compression devices cause vascular obstruction and necrosis of foreskin tissue and do not require sutures or injectable anaesthesia. Collar clamp devices compress the proximal part of the foreskin to reach haemostasis; the distal foreskin is removed, but the device remains and therefore no sutures are required. Newer techniques and designs, such as tissue adhesives and a circular cutter with stapled anastomosis, are improvements, but none of these methods have achieved all desirable characteristics. Further research, design and development are needed to address this gap to enable the expansion of the already successful VMMC programmes for HIV prevention.

Toward a Systematic Approach to Generating Demand for Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Insights and Results From Field Studies.

By the end of 2014, an estimated 8.5 million men had undergone voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention in 14 priority countries in eastern and southern Africa, representing more than 40% of the global target. However, demand, especially among men most at risk for HIV infection, remains a barrier to realizing the program's full scale and potential impact. We analyzed current demand generation interventions for VMMC by reviewing the available literature and reporting on field visits to programs in 7 priority countries. We present our findings and recommendations using a framework with 4 components: insight development; intervention design; implementation and coordination to achieve scale; and measurement, learning, and evaluation. Most program strategies lacked comprehensive insight development; formative research usually comprised general acceptability studies. Demand generation interventions varied across the countries, from advocacy with community leaders and community mobilization to use of interpersonal communication, mid- and mass media, and new technologies. Some shortcomings in intervention design included using general instead of tailored messaging, focusing solely on the HIV preventive benefits of VMMC, and rolling out individual interventions to address specific barriers rather than a holistic package. Interventions have often been scaled-up without first being evaluated for effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. We recommend national programs create coordinated demand generation interventions, based on insights from multiple disciplines, tailored to the needs and aspirations of defined subsets of the target population, rather than focused exclusively on HIV prevention goals. Programs should implement a comprehensive intervention package with multiple messages and channels, strengthened through continuous monitoring. These insights may be broadly applicable to other programs where voluntary behavior change is essential to achieving public health benefits.

Feasibility and validity of telephone triage for adverse events during a voluntary medical male circumcision campaign in Swaziland.

BACKGROUND: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces HIV acquisition among heterosexual men by approximately 60%. VMMC is a surgical procedure and some adverse events (AEs) are expected. Swaziland's Ministry of Health established a toll-free hotline to provide general information about VMMC and to manage post-operative clinical AEs through telephone triage. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a dataset of telephone calls logged by the VMMC hotline during a VMMC campaign. The objectives were to determine reasons clients called the VMMC hotline and to ascertain the accuracy of telephone-based triage for VMMC AEs. We then analyzed VMMC service delivery data that included date of surgery, AE type and severity, as diagnosed by a VMMC clinician as part of routine post-operative follow-up. Both datasets were de-identified and did not contain any personal identifiers. Proportions of AEs were calculated from the call data and from VMMC service delivery data recorded by health facilities. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the accuracy of phone-based triage compared to clinically confirmed AEs. RESULTS: A total of 17,059 calls were registered by the triage nurses from April to December 2011. Calls requesting VMMC education and counseling totaled 12,492 (73.2%) and were most common. Triage nurses diagnosed 384 clients with 420 (2.5%) AEs. According to the predefined clinical algorithms, all moderate and severe AEs (153) diagnosed through telephone-triage were referred for clinical management at a health facility. Clinicians at the VMMC sites diagnosed 341 (4.1%) total clients as having a mild (46.0%), moderate (47.8%), or severe (6.2%) AE. Eighty-nine (26%) of the 341 clients who were diagnosed with AEs by clinicians at a VMMC site had initially called the VMMC hotline. The telephone-based triage system had a sensitivity of 69%, a positive predictive value of 83%, and a negative predictive value of 48% for screening moderate or severe AEs of all the AEs. CONCLUSIONS: The use of a telephone-based triage system may be an appropriate first step to identify life-threatening and urgent complications following VMMC surgery.

Achieving the HIV prevention impact of voluntary medical male circumcision: lessons and challenges for managing programs.

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is capable of reducing the risk of sexual transmission of HIV from females to males by approximately 60%. In 2007, the WHO and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) recommended making VMMC part of a comprehensive HIV prevention package in countries with a generalized HIV epidemic and low rates of male circumcision. Modeling studies undertaken in 2009-2011 estimated that circumcising 80% of adult males in 14 priority countries in Eastern and Southern Africa within five years, and sustaining coverage levels thereafter, could avert 3.4 million HIV infections within 15 years and save US$16.5 billion in treatment costs. In response, WHO/UNAIDS launched the Joint Strategic Action Framework for accelerating the scale-up of VMMC for HIV prevention in Southern and Eastern Africa, calling for 80% coverage of adult male circumcision by 2016. While VMMC programs have grown dramatically since inception, they appear unlikely to reach this goal. This review provides an overview of findings from the PLOS Collection "Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention: Improving Quality, Efficiency, Cost Effectiveness, and Demand for Services during an Accelerated Scale-up." The use of devices for VMMC is also explored. We propose emphasizing management solutions to help VMMC programs in the priority countries achieve the desired impact of averting the greatest possible number of HIV infections. Our recommendations include advocating for prioritization and funding of VMMC, increasing strategic targeting to achieve the goal of reducing HIV incidence, focusing on programmatic efficiency, exploring the role of new technologies, rethinking demand creation, strengthening data use for decision-making, improving governments' program management capacity, strategizing for sustainability, and maintaining a flexible scale-up strategy informed by a strong monitoring, learning, and evaluation platform.

Systematic Monitoring of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Scale-up: adoption of efficiency elements in Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: SYMMACS, the Systematic Monitoring of the Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Scale-up, tracked the implementation and adoption of six elements of surgical efficiency-use of multiple surgical beds, pre-bundled kits, task shifting, task sharing, forceps-guided surgical method, and electrocautery--as standards of surgical efficiency in Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This multi-country study used two-staged sampling. The first stage sampled VMMC sites: 73 in 2011, 122 in 2012. The second stage involved sampling providers (358 in 2011, 591 in 2012) and VMMC procedures for observation (594 in 2011, 1034 in 2012). The number of VMMC sites increased significantly between 2011 and 2012; marked seasonal variation occurred in peak periods for VMMC. Countries adopted between three and five of the six elements; forceps-guided surgery was the only element adopted by all countries. Kenya and Tanzania routinely practiced task-shifting. South Africa and Zimbabwe used pre-bundled kits with disposable instruments and electrocautery. South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe routinely employed multiple surgical bays. CONCLUSIONS: SYMMACS is the first study to provide data on the implementation of VMMC programs and adoption of elements of surgical efficiency. Findings have contributed to policy change on task-shifting in Zimbabwe, a review of the monitoring system for adverse events in South Africa, an increased use of commercially bundled VMMC kits in Tanzania, and policy dialogue on improving VMMC service delivery in Kenya. This article serves as an overview for five other articles following this supplement.