A biomarker-stratified comparison of top-down versus accelerated step-up treatment strategies for patients with newly diagnosed Crohn's disease (PROFILE): a multicentre, open-label randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Management strategies and clinical outcomes vary substantially in patients newly diagnosed with Crohn's disease. We evaluated the use of a putative prognostic biomarker to guide therapy by assessing outcomes in patients randomised to either top-down (ie, early combined immunosuppression with infliximab and immunomodulator) or accelerated step-up (conventional) treatment strategies. METHODS: PROFILE (PRedicting Outcomes For Crohn's disease using a moLecular biomarker) was a multicentre, open-label, biomarker-stratified, randomised controlled trial that enrolled adults with newly diagnosed active Crohn's disease (Harvey-Bradshaw Index ≥7, either elevated C-reactive protein or faecal calprotectin or both, and endoscopic evidence of active inflammation). Potential participants had blood drawn to be tested for a prognostic biomarker derived from T-cell transcriptional signatures (PredictSURE-IBD assay). Following testing, patients were randomly assigned, via a secure online platform, to top-down or accelerated step-up treatment stratified by biomarker subgroup (IBDhi or IBDlo), endoscopic inflammation (mild, moderate, or severe), and extent (colonic or other). Blinding to biomarker status was maintained throughout the trial. The primary endpoint was sustained steroid-free and surgery-free remission to week 48. Remission was defined by a composite of symptoms and inflammatory markers at all visits. Flare required active symptoms (HBI ≥5) plus raised inflammatory markers (CRP >upper limit of normal or faecal calprotectin ≥200 µg/g, or both), while remission was the converse-ie, quiescent symptoms (HBI <5) or resolved inflammatory markers (both CRP ≤ the upper limit of normal and calprotectin <200 µg/g) or both. Analyses were done in the full analysis (intention-to-treat) population. The trial has completed and is registered (ISRCTN11808228). FINDINGS: Between Dec 29, 2017, and Jan 5, 2022, 386 patients (mean age 33·6 years [SD 13·2]; 179 [46%] female, 207 [54%] male) were randomised: 193 to the top-down group and 193 to the accelerated step-up group. Median time from diagnosis to trial enrolment was 12 days (range 0-191). Primary outcome data were available for 379 participants (189 in the top-down group; 190 in the accelerated step-up group). There was no biomarker-treatment interaction effect (absolute difference 1 percentage points, 95% CI -15 to 15; p=0·944). Sustained steroid-free and surgery-free remission was significantly more frequent in the top-down group than in the accelerated step-up group (149 [79%] of 189 patients vs 29 [15%] of 190 patients, absolute difference 64 percentage points, 95% CI 57 to 72; p<0·0001). There were fewer adverse events (including disease flares) and serious adverse events in the top-down group than in the accelerated step-up group (adverse events: 168 vs 315; serious adverse events: 15 vs 42), with fewer complications requiring abdominal surgery (one vs ten) and no difference in serious infections (three vs eight). INTERPRETATION: Top-down treatment with combination infliximab plus immunomodulator achieved substantially better outcomes at 1 year than accelerated step-up treatment. The biomarker did not show clinical utility. Top-down treatment should be considered standard of care for patients with newly diagnosed active Crohn's disease. FUNDING: Wellcome and PredictImmune Ltd.

Endoscopic and Histological Placebo Rates in Crohn's Disease Clinical Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Precise estimates of placebo response rates help efficient clinical trial design. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we assessed contemporary placebo endoscopic and histological response rates in Crohn's disease (CD) clinical trials. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched from inception to April 2022 to identify placebo-controlled studies of pharmacological interventions for CD. Endoscopic response, remission, and mucosal healing rates for participants assigned to placebo in induction and maintenance studies were pooled using a random-effects model. Point estimates and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. RESULTS: In total, 16 studies (11 induction, 3 maintenance, 2 induction and maintenance) that randomized 1646 participants to placebo were eligible. For induction trials, the pooled placebo endoscopic response, endoscopic remission, and mucosal healing rates in participants assigned to placebo were 13% (95% CI, 10-16; I2 = 14.1%; P = .14), 6% (95% CI, 3-11; I2 = 74.7%; P < .001), and 6% (95% CI, 4-9; I2 = 26.9%; P = .29), respectively. The pooled endoscopic remission rate in patients who were bio-naïve was 10% (95% CI, 4-23) compared with only 4% (95% CI, 3-7) in bio-experienced patients. For maintenance trials, the pooled endoscopic response, remission, and mucosal healing rates were 7% (95% CI, 1-31; I2 = 78.2%; P = .004), 11% (95% CI, 4-27; I2 = 70.8%; P = .06), and 7% (95% CI, 3-15; I2 = 29.7; P = .23), respectively. Only 3 trials assessed histological outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Endoscopic placebo rates vary according to trial phase and prior biologic exposure. These contemporary data will serve to inform CD trial design, sample size calculation, and end point selection for future trials.

ECCO Topical Review on Biological Treatment Cycles in Crohn's Disease.

There are now a growing number of licensed biological therapies for patients with Crohn's disease. However, there can be significant costs associated with long-term maintenance treatment, as well as some concerns about potential side-effects. As a result, there has been increasing interest in elective biological treatment discontinuation in selected patients, after a sustained period of remission. Following discontinuation, in cases of relapse, evidence to date has suggested that remission may often be regained by re-treatment with the same biological agent. Therefore, a concept has emerged in which cycles of biological therapy might be used. If this treatment strategy were to be applied in a subgroup of patients at low risk of relapse, cycling might allow a substantial number of patients to have a lower, overall therapeutic burden-ensuring decreased exposure to biological therapy but still enabling appropriate disease control. Currently, there remains uncertainty about the benefit-risk balance for using cycles of biological treatment for patients with Crohn's disease. Accordingly, an expert panel was convened by the European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation [ECCO] to review the published literature and agree a series of consensus practice points. The panel aimed to provide evidence-based guidance on multiple aspects of biological treatment discontinuation and cycling, including the risk of relapse after elective treatment discontinuation, predictors of probable relapse or remission, safety, patient preferences, and pharmacoeconomic aspects. Crucially, discussions about biological treatment discontinuation and cycling should be individualized, to enable shared decision-making by patients with their clinicians.

Uptake of the multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) adaptive platform approach: a trial-registry review of late-phase randomised clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: For medical conditions with numerous interventions worthy of investigation, there are many advantages of a multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) platform trial approach. However, there is currently limited knowledge on uptake of the MAMS design, especially in the late-phase setting. We sought to examine uptake and characteristics of late-phase MAMS platform trials, to enable better planning for teams considering future use of this approach. DESIGN: We examined uptake of registered, late-phase MAMS platforms in the EU clinical trials register, Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number registry, Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, WHO International Clinical Trial Registry Platform and databases: PubMed, Medline, Cochrane Library, Global Health Library and EMBASE. Searching was performed and review data frozen on 1 April 2021. MAMS platforms were defined as requiring two or more comparison arms, with two or more trial stages, with an interim analysis allowing for stopping of recruitment to arms and typically the ability to add new intervention arms. RESULTS: 62 late-phase clinical trials using an MAMS approach were included. Overall, the number of late-phase trials using the MAMS design has been increasing since 2001 and been accelerated by COVID-19. The majority of current MAMS platforms were either targeting infectious diseases (52%) or cancers (29%) and all identified trials were for treatment interventions. 89% (55/62) of MAMS platforms were evaluating medications, with 45% (28/62) of the MAMS platforms having at least one or more repurposed medication as a comparison arm. CONCLUSIONS: Historically, late-phase trials have adhered to long-established standard (two-arm) designs. However, the number of late-phase MAMS platform trials is increasing, across a range of different disease areas. This study highlights the potential scope of MAMS platform trials and may assist research teams considering use of this approach in the late-phase randomised clinical trial setting. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019153910.

Therapeutic drug monitoring of biologics in inflammatory bowel disease: unmet needs and future perspectives.

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) has emerged as a useful tool for optimising the use of biologics, and in particular anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapy, in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, challenges remain and are hindering the widespread implementation of TDM in clinical practice. These barriers include identification of the optimal drug concentration to target, the lag time between sampling and results, and the proper interpretation of anti-drug antibody titres among different assays. Solutions to overcome these barriers include the harmonisation of TDM assays and the use of point-of-care testing. Other unmet needs include well designed prospective studies and randomised controlled trials focusing on proactive TDM, particularly during induction therapy. Future studies should also investigate the utility of TDM for biologics other than anti-TNF therapies in both IBD and other immune-mediated inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis, and the use of pharmacokinetic modelling dashboards and pharmacogenetics towards individual personalised medicine.

Access to routinely collected health data for clinical trials - review of successful data requests to UK registries.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials generally each collect their own data despite routinely collected health data (RCHD) increasing in quality and breadth. Our aim is to quantify UK-based randomised controlled trials (RCTs) accessing RCHD for participant data, characterise how these data are used and thereby recommend how more trials could use RCHD. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of RCTs accessing RCHD from at least one registry in the UK between 2013 and 2018 for the purposes of informing or supplementing participant data. A list of all registries holding RCHD in the UK was compiled. In cases where registries published release registers, these were searched for RCTs accessing RCHD. Where no release register was available, registries were contacted to request a list of RCTs. For each identified RCT, information was collected from all publicly available sources (release registers, websites, protocol etc.). The search and data extraction were undertaken between January and May 2019. RESULTS: We identified 160 RCTs accessing RCHD between 2013 and 2018 from a total of 22 registries; this corresponds to only a very small proportion of all UK RCTs (about 3%). RCTs accessing RCHD were generally large (median sample size 1590), commonly evaluating treatments for cancer or cardiovascular disease. Most of the included RCTs accessed RCHD from NHS Digital (68%), and the most frequently accessed datasets were mortality (76%) and hospital visits (55%). RCHD was used to inform the primary trial (82%) and long-term follow-up (57%). There was substantial variation in how RCTs used RCHD to inform participant outcome measures. A limitation was the lack of information and transparency from registries and RCTs with respect to which datasets have been accessed and for what purposes. CONCLUSIONS: In the last five years, only a small minority of UK-based RCTs have accessed RCHD to inform participant data. We ask for improved accessibility, confirmed data quality and joined-up thinking between the registries and the regulatory authorities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42019123088.

Personalised medicine in Crohn's disease.

Similar to many immune-mediated diseases, Crohn's disease follows a relapsing-remitting pattern, with a variable disease course and heterogeneous clinical outcomes. Frequency of flare-ups, development of complications, and response to treatment collectively determine the effect on a patient's quality of life, which can vary from minimal disruption to profound disability or death. Despite recent advances in the understanding of complex disease pathogenesis, including for Crohn's disease, management decisions are still typically made using a one-size-fits-all approach. Indeed, the inability to reliably predict clinical outcomes in a way that could guide future therapy represents a major unmet need. Recently, several important insights have been made into the biology underlying outcomes in Crohn's disease. In this Review, we will summarise these insights and discuss how greater understanding of these disease mechanisms can be used to develop clinically useful biomarkers, identify novel approaches to optimise disease control, and help deliver the goal of personalised medicine.

A blood-based prognostic biomarker in IBD.

OBJECTIVE: We have previously described a prognostic transcriptional signature in CD8 T cells that separates patients with IBD into two phenotypically distinct subgroups, termed IBD1 and IBD2. Here we sought to develop a blood-based test that could identify these subgroups without cell separation, and thus be suitable for clinical use in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). DESIGN: Patients with active IBD were recruited before treatment. Transcriptomic analyses were performed on purified CD8 T cells and/or whole blood. Phenotype data were collected prospectively. IBD1/IBD2 patient subgroups were identified by consensus clustering of CD8 T cell transcriptomes. In a training cohort, machine learning was used to identify groups of genes ('classifiers') whose differential expression in whole blood recreated the IBD1/IBD2 subgroups. Genes from the best classifiers were quantitative (q)PCR optimised, and further machine learning was used to identify the optimal qPCR classifier, which was locked down for further testing. Independent validation was sought in separate cohorts of patients with CD (n=66) and UC (n=57). RESULTS: In both validation cohorts, a 17-gene qPCR-based classifier stratified patients into two distinct subgroups. Irrespective of the underlying diagnosis, IBDhi patients (analogous to the poor prognosis IBD1 subgroup) experienced significantly more aggressive disease than IBDlo patients (analogous to IBD2), with earlier need for treatment escalation (hazard ratio=2.65 (CD), 3.12 (UC)) and more escalations over time (for multiple escalations within 18 months: sensitivity=72.7% (CD), 100% (UC); negative predictive value=90.9% (CD), 100% (UC)). CONCLUSION: This is the first validated prognostic biomarker that can predict prognosis in newly diagnosed patients with IBD and represents a step towards personalised therapy.

PRedicting Outcomes For Crohn's dIsease using a moLecular biomarkEr (PROFILE): protocol for a multicentre, randomised, biomarker-stratified trial.

BACKGROUND: The course of Crohn's disease (CD) varies substantially between individuals, but reliable prognostic markers do not exist. This hinders disease management because patients with aggressive disease are undertreated by conventional 'step-up' therapy (in which treatment is gradually escalated in response to refractory or relapsing disease) while those with more indolent disease would be exposed to unnecessary treatment-related toxicity if a more aggressive 'top-down' approach was indiscriminately used. The Predicting outcomes for Crohn's disease using a molecular biomarker trial will assess whether a prognostic transcriptional biomarker, that we have developed and validated, can improve clinical outcomes by facilitating personalised therapy in CD. This represents the first the biomarker-stratified trial in inflammatory bowel disease. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This biomarker-stratified trial will compare the relative efficacy of 'top-down' and 'accelerated step-up' therapy between biomarker-defined subgroups of patients with newly diagnosed CD. 400 participants from ~50 UK centres will be recruited. Subjects within each biomarker subgroup (IBDhi or IBDlo) will be randomised (1:1) to receive one of the treatment strategies until trial completion (48 weeks). The primary outcome is the incidence of sustained surgery and steroid-free remission from the completion of induction treatment through to week 48. Secondary outcomes include mucosal healing, quality-of-life assessments and surrogate measures of disease burden including number of flares, cumulative steroid exposure, number of hospital admissions and number of Crohn's-related surgeries (assessed hierarchically). Analyses will compare the relative benefit of the treatment strategies in each biomarker-defined subgroup, powered as an interaction analysis, to determine whether the biomarker can accurately match patients to the most appropriate therapy. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained and recruitment is under way at sites around the UK. Following trial completion and data analysis, the results of the trial will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and presented at international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN11808228; Pre-results.

Investigating Physical Activity in the Etiology of Pancreatic Cancer: The Age at Which This Is Measured Is Important and Is Independent of Body Mass Index.

OBJECTIVES: There are plausible biological mechanisms for how increased physical activity (PA) may prevent pancreatic cancer, although findings from epidemiological studies are inconsistent. We investigated whether the risk is dependent on the age at which PA is measured and if independent of body mass index (BMI). METHODS: A total of 23,639 participants, aged 40 to 74 years, were recruited into the EPIC-Norfolk (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer) cohort study between 1993 and 1997 and completed validated questionnaires on PA. The cohort was monitored for pancreatic cancer development, and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated and adjusted for covariates. RESULTS: Within 17 years, 88 participants developed pancreatic cancer (55% female). There was no association between PA and risk in the cohort (HR trend, 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86-1.29). However, in participants younger than 60 years, higher PA was associated with decreased risk (highest vs lowest category HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.07-0.99). Higher PA was not inversely associated when older than 60 years (HR trend, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.96-1.57). Including BMI in all models produced similar estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The reasons why PA in younger, but not older, people may prevent pancreatic cancer need to be investigated. Physical activity may operate through mechanisms independent of BMI. If this association is causal, 1 in 6 cases might be prevented by encouraging more PA.