The cost of inflammatory bowel disease in high-income settings: a Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology Commission.

The cost of caring for patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) continues to increase worldwide. The cause is not only a steady increase in the prevalence of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis in both developed and newly industrialised countries, but also the chronic nature of the diseases, the need for long-term, often expensive treatments, the use of more intensive disease monitoring strategies, and the effect of the diseases on economic productivity. This Commission draws together a wide range of expertise to discuss the current costs of IBD care, the drivers of increasing costs, and how to deliver affordable care for IBD in the future. The key conclusions are that (1) increases in health-care costs must be evaluated against improved disease management and reductions in indirect costs, and (2) that overarching systems for data interoperability, registries, and big data approaches must be established for continuous assessment of effectiveness, costs, and the cost-effectiveness of care. International collaborations should be sought out to evaluate novel models of care (eg, value-based health care, including integrated health care, and participatory health-care models), as well as to improve the education and training of clinicians, patients, and policy makers.

The use of 5-aminosalicylate for patients with Crohn's disease in a prospective European inception cohort with 5 years follow-up - an Epi-IBD study.

BACKGROUND: The lack of scientific evidence regarding the effectiveness of 5-aminosalicylate in patients with Crohn's disease is in sharp contrast to its widespread use in clinical practice. AIMS: The aim of the study was to investigate the use of 5-aminosalicylate in patients with Crohn's disease as well as the disease course of a subgroup of patients who were treated with 5-aminosalicylate as maintenance monotherapy during the first year of disease. METHODS: In a European community-based inception cohort, 488 patients with Crohn's disease were followed from the time of their diagnosis. Information on clinical data, demographics, disease activity, medical therapy and rates of surgery, cancers and deaths was collected prospectively. Patient management was left to the discretion of the treating gastroenterologists. RESULTS: Overall, 292 (60%) patients with Crohn's disease received 5-aminosalicylate period during follow-up for a median duration of 28 months (interquartile range 6-60). Of these, 78 (16%) patients received 5-aminosalicylate monotherapy during the first year following diagnosis. Patients who received monotherapy with 5-aminosalicylate experienced a mild disease course with only nine (12%) who required hospitalization, surgery, or developed stricturing or penetrating disease, and most never needed more intensive therapy. The remaining 214 patients were treated with 5-aminosalicylate as the first maintenance drug although most eventually needed to step up to other treatments including immunomodulators (75 (35%)), biological therapy (49 (23%)) or surgery (38 (18%)). CONCLUSION: In this European community-based inception cohort of unselected Crohn's disease patients, 5-aminosalicylate was commonly used. A substantial group of these patients experienced a quiescent disease course without need of additional treatment during follow-up. Therefore, despite the controversy regarding the efficacy of 5-aminosalicylate in Crohn's disease, its use seems to result in a satisfying disease course for both patients and physicians.

Health-care costs of inflammatory bowel disease in a pan-European, community-based, inception cohort during 5 years of follow-up: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) places a significant burden on health-care systems because of its chronicity and need for expensive therapies and surgery. With increasing use of biological therapies, contemporary data on IBD health-care costs are important for those responsible for allocating resources in Europe. To our knowledge, no prospective long-term analysis of the health-care costs of patients with IBD in the era of biologicals has been done in Europe. We aimed to investigate cost profiles of a pan-European, community-based inception cohort during 5 years of follow-up. METHODS: The Epi-IBD cohort is a community-based, prospective inception cohort of unselected patients with IBD diagnosed in 2010 at centres in 20 European countries plus Israel. Incident patients who were diagnosed with IBD according to the Copenhagen Diagnostic Criteria between Jan 1, and Dec 31, 2010, and were aged 15 years or older the time of diagnosis were prospectively included. Data on clinical characteristics and direct costs (investigations and outpatient visits, blood tests, treatments, hospitalisations, and surgeries) were collected prospectively using electronic case-report forms. Patient-level costs incorporated procedures leading to the initial diagnosis of IBD and costs of IBD management during the 5-year follow-up period. Costs incurred by comorbidities and unrelated to IBD were excluded. We grouped direct costs into the following five categories: investigations (including outpatient visits and blood tests), conventional medical treatment, biological therapy, hospitalisation, and surgery. FINDINGS: The study population consisted of 1289 patients with IBD, with 1073 (83%) patients from western Europe and 216 (17%) from eastern Europe. 488 (38%) patients had Crohn's disease, 717 (56%) had ulcerative colitis, and 84 (6%) had IBD unclassified. The mean cost per patient-year during follow-up for patients with IBD was €2609 (SD 7389; median €446 [IQR 164-1849]). The mean cost per patient-year during follow-up was €3542 (8058; median €717 [214-3512]) for patients with Crohn's disease, €2088 (7058; median €408 [133-1161]) for patients with ulcerative colitis, and €1609 (5010; median €415 [92-1228]) for patients with IBD unclassified (p<0·0001). Costs were highest in the first year and then decreased significantly during follow-up. Hospitalisations and diagnostic procedures accounted for more than 50% of costs during the first year. However, in subsequent years there was a steady increase in expenditure on biologicals, which accounted for 73% of costs in Crohn's disease and 48% in ulcerative colitis, in year 5. The mean annual cost per patient-year for biologicals was €866 (SD 3056). The mean yearly costs of biological therapy were higher in patients with Crohn's disease (€1782 [SD 4370]) than in patients with ulcerative colitis (€286 [1427]) or IBD unclassified (€521 [2807]; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Overall direct expenditure on health care decreased over a 5-year follow-up period. This period was characterised by increasing expenditure on biologicals and decreasing expenditure on conventional medical treatments, hospitalisations, and surgeries. In light of the expenditures associated with biological therapy, cost-effective treatment strategies are needed to reduce the economic burden of inflammatory bowel disease. FUNDING: Kirsten og Freddy Johansens Fond and Nordsjællands Hospital Forskningsråd.

Natural disease course of Crohn's disease during the first 5 years after diagnosis in a European population-based inception cohort: an Epi-IBD study.

OBJECTIVE: The Epi-IBD cohort is a prospective population-based inception cohort of unselected patients with inflammatory bowel disease from 29 European centres covering a background population of almost 10 million people. The aim of this study was to assess the 5-year outcome and disease course of patients with Crohn's disease (CD). DESIGN: Patients were followed up prospectively from the time of diagnosis, including collection of their clinical data, demographics, disease activity, medical therapy, surgery, cancers and deaths. Associations between outcomes and multiple covariates were analysed by Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 488 patients were included in the study. During follow-up, 107 (22%) patients received surgery, while 176 (36%) patients were hospitalised because of CD. A total of 49 (14%) patients diagnosed with non-stricturing, non-penetrating disease progressed to either stricturing and/or penetrating disease. These rates did not differ between patients from Western and Eastern Europe. However, significant geographic differences were noted regarding treatment: more patients in Western Europe received biological therapy (33%) and immunomodulators (66%) than did those in Eastern Europe (14% and 54%, respectively, P<0.01), while more Eastern European patients received 5-aminosalicylates (90% vs 56%, P<0.05). Treatment with immunomodulators reduced the risk of surgery (HR: 0.4, 95% CI 0.2 to 0.6) and hospitalisation (HR: 0.3, 95% CI 0.2 to 0.5). CONCLUSION: Despite patients being treated early and frequently with immunomodulators and biological therapy in Western Europe, 5-year outcomes including surgery and phenotype progression in this cohort were comparable across Western and Eastern Europe. Differences in treatment strategies between Western and Eastern European centres did not affect the disease course. Treatment with immunomodulators reduced the risk of surgery and hospitalisation.

Natural Disease Course of Ulcerative Colitis During the First Five Years of Follow-up in a European Population-based Inception Cohort-An Epi-IBD Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Few population-based cohort studies have assessed the disease course of ulcerative colitis [UC] in the era of biological therapy and widespread use of immunomodulators. The aim of this study was to assess the 5-year outcome and disease course of patients with UC in the Epi-IBD cohort. METHODS: In a prospective, population-based inception cohort of unselected patients with UC, patients were followed up from the time of their diagnosis, which included the collection of their clinical data, demographics, disease activity, medical therapy, and rates of surgery, cancers, and deaths. Associations between outcomes and multiple covariates were analysed by Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 717 patients were included in the study. During follow-up, 43 [6%] patients underwent a colectomy and 163 [23%] patients were hospitalised. Of patients with limited colitis [distal to the left flexure], 90 [21%] progressed to extensive colitis. In addition, 92 [27%] patients with extensive colitis experienced a regression in disease extent, which was associated with a reduced risk of hospitalisation (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.5 95% CI: 0.3-0.8]. Overall, patients were treated similarly in both geographical regions; 80 [11%] patients needed biological therapy and 210 [29%] patients received immunomodulators. Treatment with immunomodulators was found to reduce the risk of hospitalisation [HR: 0.5 95% CI: 0.3-0.8]. CONCLUSIONS: Although patients in this population-based cohort were treated more aggressively with immunomodulators and biological therapy than in cohorts from the previous two decades, their disease outcomes, including colectomy rates, were no different. However, treatment with immunomodulators was found to reduce the risk of hospitalisation.

Disease course of inflammatory bowel disease unclassified in a European population-based inception cohort: An Epi-IBD study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: A definitive diagnosis of Crohn's disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC) is not always possible, and a proportion of patients will be diagnosed as inflammatory bowel disease unclassified (IBDU). The aim of the study was to investigate the prognosis of patients initially diagnosed with IBDU and the disease course during the following 5 years. METHODS: The Epi-IBD study is a prospective population-based cohort of 1289 IBD patients diagnosed in centers across Europe. Clinical data were captured prospectively throughout the follow-up period. RESULTS: Overall, 476 (37%) patients were initially diagnosed with CD, 701 (54%) with UC, and 112 (9%) with IBDU. During follow-up, 28 (25%) IBDU patients were changed diagnoses to either UC (n = 20, 71%) or CD (n = 8, 29%) after a median of 6 months (interquartile range: 4-12), while 84 (7% of the total cohort) remained IBDU. A total of 17 (15%) IBDU patients were hospitalized for their IBD during follow-up, while 8 (7%) patients underwent surgery. Most surgeries (n = 6, 75%) were performed on patients whose diagnosis was later changed to UC; three of these colectomies led to a definitive diagnosis of UC. Most patients (n = 107, 96%) received 5-aminosalicylic acid, while 11 (10%) patients received biologicals, of whom five remained classified as IBDU. CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based inception cohort, 7% of IBD patients were not given a definitive diagnosis of IBD after 5 years of follow-up. One in four patients with IBDU eventually was classified as CD or UC. Overall, the disease course and medication burden in IBDU patients were mild.

Occurrence of Anaemia in the First Year of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in a European Population-based Inception Cohort-An ECCO-EpiCom Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Anaemia is an important complication of inflammatory bowel disease [IBD]. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of anaemia and the practice of anaemia screening during the first year following diagnosis, in a European prospective population-based inception cohort. METHODS: Newly diagnosed IBD patients were included and followed prospectively for 1 year in 29 European and one Australian centre. Clinical data including demographics, medical therapy, surgery and blood samples were collected. Anaemia was defined according to the World Health Organization criteria. RESULTS: A total of 1871 patients (Crohn's disease [CD]: 686, 88%; ulcerative colitis [UC]: 1,021, 87%; IBD unclassified [IBDU] 164. 81%) were included in the study. The prevalence of anaemia was higher in CD than in UC patients and, overall, 49% of CD and 39% of UC patients experienced at least one instance of anaemia during the first 12 months after diagnosis. UC patients with more extensive disease and those from Eastern European countries, and CD patients with penetrating disease or colonic disease location, had higher risks of anaemia. CD and UC patients in need of none or only mild anti-inflammatory treatment had a lower risk of anaemia. In a significant proportion of patients, anaemia was not assessed until several months after diagnosis, and in almost half of all cases of anaemia a thorough work-up was not performed. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, 42% of patients had at least one instance of anaemia during the first year following diagnosis. Most patients were assessed for anaemia regularly; however, a full anaemia work-up was frequently neglected in this community setting.

European experience with methotrexate treatment in Crohn's disease: a multicenter retrospective analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Methotrexate (MTX) has been utilized for the treatment of Crohn's disease (CD) for decades. Nevertheless, current data provide equivocal evidence on the efficacy of MTX in CD.The aims of this study were to describe the efficacy of MTX for maintenance of remission in CD and to identify the factors associated with the probability of steroid-free clinical remission in a multicenter European referral center cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort analysis. Consecutive patients treated with MTX for CD were included from 11 referral centers. Patients receiving concomitant treatment with tumor necrosis factor inhibitors or thiopurines were excluded. The main outcome was steroid-free clinical remission; the secondary outcomes included the rate of complications leading to MTX discontinuation and duration of relapse-free survival in patients achieving the main outcome. RESULTS: Between July 1992 and January 2012, 118 patients were identified for inclusion. MTX administration route was oral for induction in 31.4% and for maintenance in 49.1% of the patients. Steroid-free remission was achieved in 44/118 (37.2%) patients and was maintained relapse free by 28/44 (63.6%) for a median of 12 (3.5-18.5) months. At least one adverse effect was reported by 28.9% of the patients. No clinical or demographic factors were associated with either likelihood of achieving a clinical response or duration of relapse-free survival. CONCLUSION: MTX treatment induced steroid-free clinical remission in over a third of CD patients and maintained it for a year in almost two-thirds of the responders. MTX should be considered a viable therapeutic option in CD patients refractory to other therapies.

Costs and resource utilization for diagnosis and treatment during the initial year in a European inflammatory bowel disease inception cohort: an ECCO-EpiCom Study.

BACKGROUND: No direct comparison of health care cost in patients with inflammatory bowel disease across the European continent exists. The aim of this study was to assess the costs of investigations and treatment for diagnostics and during the first year after diagnosis in Europe. METHODS: The EpiCom cohort is a prospective population-based inception cohort of unselected inflammatory bowel disease patients from 31 Western and Eastern European centers. Patients were followed every third month from diagnosis, and clinical data regarding treatment and investigations were collected. Costs were calculated in euros (€) using the Danish Health Costs Register. RESULTS: One thousand three hundred sixty-seven patients were followed, 710 with ulcerative colitis, 509 with Crohn's disease, and 148 with inflammatory bowel disease unclassified. Total expenditure for the cohort was €5,408,174 (investigations: €2,042,990 [38%], surgery: €1,427,648 [26%], biologicals: €781,089 [14%], and standard treatment: €1,156,520 [22%)]). Mean crude expenditure per patient in Western Europe (Eastern Europe) with Crohn's disease: investigations €1803 (€2160) (P = 0.44), surgery €11,489 (€13,973) (P = 0.14), standard treatment €1027 (€824) (P = 0.51), and biologicals €7376 (€8307) (P = 0.31). Mean crude expenditure per patient in Western Europe (Eastern Europe) with ulcerative colitis: investigations €1189 ( €1518) (P < 0.01), surgery €18,414 ( €12,395) (P = 0.18), standard treatment €896 ( €798) (P < 0.05), and biologicals €5681 ( €72) (P = 0.51). CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based unselected cohort, costs during the first year of disease were mainly incurred by investigative procedures and surgeries. However, biologicals accounted for >15% of costs. Long-term follow-up of the cohort is needed to assess the cost-effectiveness of biological agents.

Extraintestinal manifestations in Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis: results from a prospective, population-based European inception cohort.

BACKGROUND: In chronic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) (Crohn's disease [CD] and ulcerative colitis [UC]), symptoms from outside the gastrointestinal tract are frequently seen, and the joints, skin, eyes, and hepatobiliary area are the most usually affected sites (called extraintestinal manifestations [EIM]). The reported prevalence varies, explained by difference in study design and populations under investigation. The aim of our study was to determine the prevalence of EIM in a population-based inception cohort in Europe and Israel. METHODS: IBD patients were incepted into a cohort that was prospectively followed from 1991 to 2004. A total of 1145 patients were followed for 10 years. RESULTS: The cumulative prevalence of first EIM was 16.9% (193/1145 patients) over a median follow-up time of 10.1 years. Patients with CD were more likely than UC patients to have immune-mediated (arthritis, eye, skin, and liver) manifestations: 20.1% versus 10.4% (p < 0.001). Most frequently seen was arthritis which was significantly more common in CD (12.9%) than in UC (8.1%), p = 0.01. Pan-colitis compared to proctitis in UC increased the risk of EIM. CONCLUSION: In a European inception cohort, EIMs in IBD were consistent with that seen in comparable studies. Patients with CD are twice as likely as UC patients to experience EIM, and more extensive distribution of inflammation in UC increases the risk of EIM.

Initial disease course and treatment in an inflammatory bowel disease inception cohort in Europe: the ECCO-EpiCom cohort.

BACKGROUND: The EpiCom cohort is a prospective, population-based, inception cohort of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients from 31 European centers covering a background population of 10.1 million. The aim of this study was to assess the 1-year outcome in the EpiCom cohort. METHODS: Patients were followed-up every third month during the first 12 (±3) months, and clinical data, demographics, disease activity, medical therapy, surgery, cancers, and deaths were collected and entered in a Web-based database (www.epicom-ecco.eu). RESULTS: In total, 1367 patients were included in the 1-year follow-up. In western Europe, 65 Crohn's disease (CD) (16%), 20 ulcerative colitis (UC) (4%), and 4 IBD unclassified (4%) patients underwent surgery, and in eastern Europe, 12 CD (12%) and 2 UC (1%) patients underwent surgery. Eighty-one CD (20%), 80 UC (14%), and 13 (9%) IBD unclassified patients were hospitalized in western Europe compared with 17 CD (16%) and 12 UC (8%) patients in eastern Europe. The cumulative probability of receiving immunomodulators was 57% for CD in western (median time to treatment 2 months) and 44% (1 month) in eastern Europe, and 21% (5 months) and 5% (6 months) for biological therapy, respectively. For UC patients, the cumulative probability was 22% (4 months) and 15% (3 months) for immunomodulators and 6% (3 months) and 1% (12 months) for biological therapy, respectively in the western and eastern Europe. DISCUSSION: In this cohort, immunological therapy was initiated within the first months of disease. Surgery and hospitalization rates did not differ between patients from eastern and western Europe, although more western European patients received biological agents and were comparable to previous population-based inception cohorts.

Where are we going with ulcerative colitis management?

Impressive progress has been made in the treatment of ulcerative colitis. Corticosteroids are nowadays limited to short-term use. The mainstay of current therapy consists of the immunosuppressive drugs (largely thiopurine analogs) and the biologics, often in combination. The calcineurin inhibitors are still in use for acute severe colitis in many centers. However, gastroenterologists can now choose between calcineurin inhibitors and biologics for administration to patients with fulminant disease, although the criteria for selection are not yet resolved. Given the success rates of current therapies, it is obvious that new and better drug development is required if surgery is to disappear from the armamentarium of treatments.

Cancer in inflammatory bowel disease 15 years after diagnosis in a population-based European Collaborative follow-up study.

AIM OF THE STUDY: To determine the occurrence of intestinal and extraintestinal cancers in the 1993-2009 prospective European Collaborative Inflammatory Bowel Disease (EC-IBD) Study Group cohort. PATIENTS-METHODS: A physician per patient form was completed for 681 inflammatory bowel disease patients (445UC/236CD) from 9 centers (7 countries) derived from the original EC-IBD cohort. For the 15-year follow up period, rates of detection of intestinal and extraintestinal cancers were computed. RESULTS: Patient follow-up time was fifteen years. In total 62/681 patients (9.1%) [41 with ulcerative colitis/21 with Crohn's disease, 36 males/26 females] were diagnosed with sixty-six cancers (four patients with double cancers). Colorectal cancer was diagnosed in 9/681 patients [1.3%] (1 Crohn's disease and 8 ulcerative colitis). The remaining 53 cancers were extraintestinal. There was a higher prevalence of intestinal cancer in the Northern centers compared to Southern centers [p=NS]. Southern centers had more cases of extraintestinal cancer compared to Northern centers [p=NS]. The frequency of all observed types of cancers in Northern and in Southern centers did not differ compared to the expected one in the background population. CONCLUSIONS: In the fifteen-year follow up of the EC-IBD Study Group cohort the prevalence of cancer was 9.1% with most patients having a single neoplasm and an extraintestinal neoplasm. In Northern centers there were more intestinal cancers while in Southern centers there were more extraintestinal cancers compared to Northern centers. In this IBD cohort the frequency of observed cancers was not different from that expected in the background population.

Construction and validation of a web-based epidemiological database for inflammatory bowel diseases in Europe An EpiCom study.

BACKGROUND: The EpiCom-study investigates a possible East-West-gradient in Europe in the incidence of IBD and the association with environmental factors. A secured web-based database is used to facilitate and centralize data registration. AIM: To construct and validate a web-based inception cohort database available in both English and Russian language. METHOD: The EpiCom database has been constructed in collaboration with all 34 participating centers. The database was translated into Russian using forward translation, patient questionnaires were translated by simplified forward-backward translation. Data insertion implies fulfillment of international diagnostic criteria, disease activity, medical therapy, quality of life, work productivity and activity impairment, outcome of pregnancy, surgery, cancer and death. Data is secured by the WinLog3 System, developed in cooperation with the Danish Data Protection Agency. Validation of the database has been performed in two consecutive rounds, each followed by corrections in accordance with comments. RESULTS: The EpiCom database fulfills the requirements of the participating countries' local data security agencies by being stored at a single location. The database was found overall to be "good" or "very good" by 81% of the participants after the second validation round and the general applicability of the database was evaluated as "good" or "very good" by 77%. In the inclusion period January 1st -December 31st 2010 1336 IBD patients have been included in the database. CONCLUSION: A user-friendly, tailor-made and secure web-based inception cohort database has been successfully constructed, facilitating remote data input. The incidence of IBD in 23 European countries can be found at www.epicom-ecco.eu.

How expensive is inflammatory bowel disease? A critical analysis.

Economic analysis of chronic diseases is required for proper allocation of resources and understanding cost-effectiveness studies of new therapies. Studies on health care cost of ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD) are reviewed here. These studies were carried out in various countries with disparate health care systems. In the United States, data were often modeled or retrieved from large insurance schemes. Surgery and in-patient hospitalization accounted for over half the outlay on UC and CD. Fistulous disease in CD and parenteral nutrition were very costly. In Canada, overall charges were lower than in the United States, but there too, surgical costs were relatively high. In European studies, economic data were abstracted directly from patients' files. One pan-European study examined the outlay on UC and CD in a community-based prospective inception cohort followed for 10 years. Overall costs in Europe were lower than in the United States. Surgery, hospitalization, year of follow-up, disease phenotype in CD and ASCA-positivity impacted significantly on costs. In all studies, the cost data were right skewed, aminosalicylates were expensive drugs, and biological agents the most expensive; moreover indirect costs were not calculated. Infliximab raised costs considerably in CD, but there were no long-term follow-up studies, so that the cost-benefit of biological agents remains unknown. In conclusion, costs of managing UC and CD vary by country, surgery, genotype and several other factors. The most important question for further research is whether the biological therapies are cost-effective in the long-term.

Serological markers are associated with disease course in ulcerative colitis. A study in an unselected population-based cohort followed for 10 years.

OBJECTIVES: Perinuclear anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (p-ANCA) and anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibody (ASCA) have been proposed as markers for diagnosis and for subtyping of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The aim of this study was to investigate the association of p-ANCA and ASCA with a 10-year disease outcome in terms of cumulative rate of colectomy and relapse in a population-based European inception cohort of ulcerative colitis (UC) patients. METHODS: Serum samples from 432 consenting patients were analysed for p-ANCA and ASCA. The results were compared with the cumulative colectomy rate, relapsing disease and total number of relapses. We used multiple regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, residence, disease extent at diagnosis, smoking, familial IBD and drug treatment to study the relationship between serological values and disease course. RESULTS: The relapse rate was higher in the p-ANCA-positive patients: 82% (95% confidence interval [CI] 75-89%) compared with 67% (CI 62-72%, p=0.011) in the p-ANCA-negative patients. The risk of relapsing disease course was higher by a factor of 1.4 (CI 1.1-1.8, p=0.009) for p-ANCA-positive patients than for p-ANCA-negative patients, and the corresponding relative risk (RR) for the total number of relapses was 1.9 (CI 1.7-2.1, p<0.001). In ASCA-positive patients RR for the total number of relapses was 1.8 (CI 1.5-2.1, p<0.001). No significant association with colectomy rate was found for the presence of either p-ANCA or ASCA. CONCLUSION: UC patients positive for p-ANCA and possibly for ASCA may have a more unfavourable long-term disease outcome in terms of relapse than UC patients without these markers.

Ulcerative colitis: patient characteristics may predict 10-yr disease recurrence in a European-wide population-based cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Cumulative 10-yr relapse rates in ulcerative colitis (UC) of 70% to almost 100% have been reported in regional studies. The aim of this study was to determine the relapse rate in UC in a European population-based cohort 10 yr after diagnosis and to identify factors that may influence the risk of relapse. METHODS: From 1991 to 1993, 771 patients with UC from seven European countries and Israel were prospectively included in a population-based inception cohort and followed for 10 yr. A relapse was defined as an increase in UC-related symptoms leading to changes in medical treatment or surgery. The cumulative relapse rate, time to first relapse, and number of relapses in the follow-up period were recorded and possible causative factors were investigated. RESULTS: The cumulative relapse rate of patients with at least one relapse was 0.67 (95% CI 0.63-0.71). The time to first relapse showed a greater hazard ratio (HR) (1.2, CI 1.0-1.5) for women and for patients with a high level of education (1.4, CI 1.1-1.8). The number of relapses decreased with age, and current smokers had a lower relapse rate (0.8, CI 0.6-0.9) than nonsmokers. The relapse rate in women was 1.2 (CI 1.1-1.3) times higher than in men. An inverse relation was found between the time to the first relapse and the total number of relapses. CONCLUSION: In 67% of patients, there was at least one relapse. Smoking status, level of education, and possibly female gender were found to influence the risk of relapse.

Treatment inferred disease severity in Crohn's disease: evidence for a European gradient of disease course.

OBJECTIVE: Geographic differences in disease course of Crohn's disease (CD) might possibly be related to differences in genetic and environmental factors encountered in different parts of the world. The aim of this study was to assess differences in treatment regimens within a European cohort of CD patients as a reflection of disease course, and to identify associated phenotypic risk factors at diagnosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A prospective European population-based inception cohort of 380 CD patients was studied. The patients were classified for phenotype according to the Vienna classification. Differences between Northern and Southern European centres in treatment over the first 10 years of disease were analysed using a competing risks survival analysis method. RESULTS: Patients in the North were more likely to have had surgery (p<0.01), whereas patients in the South were more likely to have been treated medically (p<0.01). Phenotype at diagnosis was not predictive of differences in treatment regimens between North and South. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, a difference in management of CD was observed between Northern and Southern European centres. This suggests that there may be a North-South disease severity gradient across Europe. Phenotypic differences between patients in the North and South did not explain this observed difference.

Low colectomy rates in ulcerative colitis in an unselected European cohort followed for 10 years.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The colectomy rate in ulcerative colitis (UC) is related to morbidity and to treatment decisions made during disease course. The aims of this study were to determine the colectomy risk in UC in the first decade after diagnosis and to identify factors that may influence the choice of surgical treatment. METHODS: In 1991-1993, 781 UC patients from 9 centers located in 7 countries in northern and southern Europe and in Israel were included in a prospective inception cohort study. After 10 years of follow-up, 617 patients had complete medical records, 73 had died, and 91 had been lost to follow-up. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in age, sex, or disease extent at diagnosis between patients followed for 10 years and those lost to follow-up. The 10-year cumulative risk of colectomy was 8.7%: 10.4% in the northern and 3.9% in the southern European centers (P < .001). Colectomy was more likely in extensive colitis than in proctitis, with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 4.1 (95% CI: 2.0-8.4). Compared with the southern centers, the adjusted HR was 2.7 (95% CI: 1.3-5.6) for The Netherlands and Norway together and 8.2 (95% CI: 3.6-18.6) for Denmark. Age at diagnosis, sex, and smoking status at diagnosis had no statistically significant influence on colectomy rates. CONCLUSIONS: The colectomy rate was found to be lower than that in previous publications, but there was a difference between northern and southern Europe. Colectomy was associated with extensive colitis, but the geographic variations could not be explained.

The prevalence of genetic and serologic markers in an unselected European population-based cohort of IBD patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The aetiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is unknown, but it has become evident that genetic factors are involved in disease susceptibility. Studies have suggested a north-south gradient in the incidence of IBD, raising the question whether this difference is caused by genetic heterogeneity. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of polymorphisms in CARD15 and TLR4 and occurrence of anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae (ASCA) and antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (pANCA) in a European population-based IBD cohort. METHODS: Individuals from the incident cohort were genotyped for three mutations in CARD15 and the Asp299gly mutation in TLR4. Levels of ASCA and pANCA were assessed. Disease location and behaviour at time of diagnosis was obtained from patient files. RESULTS: Overall CARD15 mutation rate was 23.9% for CD and 9.6% for UC patients (P < 0.001). Mutations were less present in the Scandinavian countries (12.1%) versus the rest of Europe (32.8%) (P < 0.001). Overall population attributable risk was 11.2%. TLR4 mutation rate was 7.6% in CD, 6.7% in UC patients and 12.3% in healthy controls (HC), highest among South European CD patients and HC. ASCA was seen in 28.5% of CD patients with no north-south difference, and was associated with complicated disease. pANCA was most common in North European UC patients and not associated with disease phenotype. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of mutations in CARD15 varied across Europe, and was not correlated to the incidence of CD. There was no association between mutations in TLR4 and IBD. The prevalence of ASCA was relatively low; however related to severe CD.