Quantifying the Prognostic Value of Preoperative Surgeon Intuition: Comparing Surgeon Intuition and Clinical Risk Prediction as Derived from the American College of Surgeons NSQIP Risk Calculator.

BACKGROUND: Surgical risk prediction models traditionally use patient attributes and measures of physiology to generate predictions about postoperative outcomes. However, the surgeon's assessment of the patient may be a valuable predictor, given the surgeon's ability to detect and incorporate factors that existing models cannot capture. We compare the predictive utility of surgeon intuition and a risk calculator derived from the American College of Surgeons (ACS) NSQIP. STUDY DESIGN: From January 10, 2021 to January 9, 2022, surgeons were surveyed immediately before performing surgery to assess their perception of a patient's risk of developing any postoperative complication. Clinical data were abstracted from ACS NSQIP. Both sources of data were independently used to build models to predict the likelihood of a patient experiencing any 30-day postoperative complication as defined by ACS NSQIP. RESULTS: Preoperative surgeon assessment was obtained for 216 patients. NSQIP data were available for 9,182 patients who underwent general surgery (January 1, 2017 to January 9, 2022). A binomial regression model trained on clinical data alone had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.85) in predicting any complication. A model trained on only preoperative surgeon intuition had an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.78). A model trained on surgeon intuition and a subset of clinical predictors had an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.89). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative surgeon intuition alone is an independent predictor of patient outcomes; however, a risk calculator derived from ACS NSQIP is a more robust predictor of postoperative complication. Combining intuition and clinical data did not strengthen prediction.

Self-selection vs Randomized Assignment of Treatment for Appendicitis.

Importance: For adults with appendicitis, several randomized clinical trials have demonstrated that antibiotics are an effective alternative to appendectomy. However, it remains unknown how the characteristics of patients in such trials compare with those of patients who select their treatment and whether outcomes differ. Objective: To compare participants in the Comparison of Outcomes of Antibiotic Drugs and Appendectomy (CODA) randomized clinical trial (RCT) with a parallel cohort study of participants who declined randomization and self-selected treatment. Design, Setting, and Participants: The CODA trial was conducted in 25 US medical centers. Participants were enrolled between May 3, 2016, and February 5, 2020; all participants were eligible for at least 1 year of follow-up, with all follow-up ending in 2021. The randomized cohort included 1094 adults with appendicitis; the self-selection cohort included patients who declined participation in the randomized group, of whom 253 selected appendectomy and 257 selected antibiotics. In this secondary analysis, characteristics and outcomes in both self-selection and randomized cohorts are described with an exploratory analysis of cohort status and receipt of appendectomy. Interventions: Appendectomy vs antibiotics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Characteristics among participants randomized to either appendectomy or antibiotics were compared with those of participants who selected their own treatment. Results: Clinical characteristics were similar across the self-selection cohort (510 patients; mean age, 35.8 years [95% CI, 34.5-37.1]; 218 female [43%; 95% CI, 39%-47%]) and the randomized group (1094 patients; mean age, 38.2 years [95% CI, 37.4-39.0]; 386 female [35%; 95% CI, 33%-38%]). Compared with the randomized group, those in the self-selection cohort were less often Spanish speaking (n = 99 [19%; 95% CI, 16%-23%] vs n = 336 [31%; 95% CI, 28%-34%]), reported more formal education (some college or more, n = 355 [72%; 95% CI, 68%-76%] vs n = 674 [63%; 95% CI, 60%-65%]), and more often had commercial insurance (n = 259 [53%; 95% CI, 48%-57%] vs n = 486 [45%; 95% CI, 42%-48%]). Most outcomes were similar between the self-selection and randomized cohorts. The number of patients undergoing appendectomy by 30 days was 38 (15.3%; 95% CI, 10.7%-19.7%) among those selecting antibiotics and 155 (19.2%; 95% CI, 15.9%-22.5%) in those who were randomized to antibiotics (difference, 3.9%; 95% CI, -1.7% to 9.5%). Differences in the rate of appendectomy were primarily observed in the non-appendicolith subgroup. Conclusions and Relevance: This secondary analysis of the CODA RCT found substantially similar outcomes across the randomized and self-selection cohorts, suggesting that the randomized trial results are generalizable to the community at large. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02800785.

Patient Factors Associated With Appendectomy Within 30 Days of Initiating Antibiotic Treatment for Appendicitis.

IMPORTANCE: Use of antibiotics for the treatment of appendicitis is safe and has been found to be noninferior to appendectomy based on self-reported health status at 30 days. Identifying patient characteristics associated with a greater likelihood of appendectomy within 30 days in those who initiate antibiotics could support more individualized decision-making. OBJECTIVE: To assess patient factors associated with undergoing appendectomy within 30 days of initiating antibiotics for appendicitis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this cohort study using data from the Comparison of Outcomes of Antibiotic Drugs and Appendectomy (CODA) randomized clinical trial, characteristics among patients who initiated antibiotics were compared between those who did and did not undergo appendectomy within 30 days. The study was conducted at 25 US medical centers; participants were enrolled between May 3, 2016, and February 5, 2020. A total of 1552 participants with acute appendicitis were randomized to antibiotics (776 participants) or appendectomy (776 participants). Data were analyzed from September 2020 to July 2021. EXPOSURES: Appendectomy vs antibiotics. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Conditional logistic regression models were fit to estimate associations between specific patient factors and the odds of undergoing appendectomy within 30 days after initiating antibiotics. A sensitivity analysis was performed excluding participants who underwent appendectomy within 30 days for nonclinical reasons. RESULTS: Of 776 participants initiating antibiotics (mean [SD] age, 38.3 [13.4] years; 286 [37%] women and 490 [63%] men), 735 participants had 30-day outcomes, including 154 participants (21%) who underwent appendectomy within 30 days. After adjustment for other factors, female sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.53; 95% CI, 1.01-2.31), radiographic finding of wider appendiceal diameter (OR per 1-mm increase, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00-1.18), and presence of appendicolith (OR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.28-3.10) were associated with increased odds of undergoing appendectomy within 30 days. Characteristics that are often associated with increased risk of complications (eg, advanced age, comorbid conditions) and those clinicians often use to describe appendicitis severity (eg, fever: OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.82-1.98) were not associated with odds of 30-day appendectomy. The sensitivity analysis limited to appendectomies performed for clinical reasons provided similar results regarding appendicolith (adjusted OR, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.49-3.91). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This cohort study found that presence of an appendicolith was associated with a nearly 2-fold increased risk of undergoing appendectomy within 30 days of initiating antibiotics. Clinical characteristics often used to describe severity of appendicitis were not associated with odds of 30-day appendectomy. This information may help guide more individualized decision-making for people with appendicitis.

Intraoperative cholangiography: a stepping stone to streamlining the treatment of choledocholithiasis.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 8-15% of patients undergoing cholecystectomy have concomitant common bile duct stones. In this 14-year study, we utilize data of patients at a high-volume tertiary care academic center and compare the clinical outcomes of patients undergoing intraoperative cholangiography (IOC) and endoscopic retrograde pancreatography (ERCP). METHODS: The charts of 1715 patients in the institutional NSQIP database who underwent cholecystectomy between October 1st, 2005 and September 30th, 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients who underwent cholecystectomy in relation to a malignancy diagnosis or who underwent an ERCP in a different index hospitalization were excluded. Main outcomes included hospital length of stay (LOS), post-operative morbidity, and rate of readmissions. RESULTS: Of the 1409 patients included in the final analysis, 185 patients underwent ERCP, while 95 patients underwent IOC. Use of IOC compared to preoperative ERCP resulted in a shorter LOS (2.6 vs. 5.3 days, p < 0.001), lower rate of readmission (1.1% vs. 6.5%, p = 0.040), and similar rates of post-operative complications. Mean operative time increased by only 15 min in the IOC compared to the ERCP group (129 vs.114 min, p = 0.047). Additional variables that increased LOS on multivariable logistic regression included age, ASA classification, post-operative complications, and increased number of preoperative tests. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that use of IOC during cholecystectomy results in shorter LOS and fewer readmissions compared to ERCP. Future studies comparing these two approaches should focus on patient randomization, a cost-effectiveness analysis, and identifying barriers to implementation of a one-stage approach in the management of suspected choledocholithiasis.

A Randomized Trial Comparing Antibiotics with Appendectomy for Appendicitis.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic therapy has been proposed as an alternative to surgery for the treatment of appendicitis. METHODS: We conducted a pragmatic, nonblinded, noninferiority, randomized trial comparing antibiotic therapy (10-day course) with appendectomy in patients with appendicitis at 25 U.S. centers. The primary outcome was 30-day health status, as assessed with the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) questionnaire (scores range from 0 to 1, with higher scores indicating better health status; noninferiority margin, 0.05 points). Secondary outcomes included appendectomy in the antibiotics group and complications through 90 days; analyses were prespecified in subgroups defined according to the presence or absence of an appendicolith. RESULTS: In total, 1552 adults (414 with an appendicolith) underwent randomization; 776 were assigned to receive antibiotics (47% of whom were not hospitalized for the index treatment) and 776 to undergo appendectomy (96% of whom underwent a laparoscopic procedure). Antibiotics were noninferior to appendectomy on the basis of 30-day EQ-5D scores (mean difference, 0.01 points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.001 to 0.03). In the antibiotics group, 29% had undergone appendectomy by 90 days, including 41% of those with an appendicolith and 25% of those without an appendicolith. Complications were more common in the antibiotics group than in the appendectomy group (8.1 vs. 3.5 per 100 participants; rate ratio, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.30 to 3.98); the higher rate in the antibiotics group could be attributed to those with an appendicolith (20.2 vs. 3.6 per 100 participants; rate ratio, 5.69; 95% CI, 2.11 to 15.38) and not to those without an appendicolith (3.7 vs. 3.5 per 100 participants; rate ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.45 to 2.43). The rate of serious adverse events was 4.0 per 100 participants in the antibiotics group and 3.0 per 100 participants in the appendectomy group (rate ratio, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.67 to 2.50). CONCLUSIONS: For the treatment of appendicitis, antibiotics were noninferior to appendectomy on the basis of results of a standard health-status measure. In the antibiotics group, nearly 3 in 10 participants had undergone appendectomy by 90 days. Participants with an appendicolith were at a higher risk for appendectomy and for complications than those without an appendicolith. (Funded by the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute; CODA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02800785.).

Cervical spine MRI in patients with negative CT: A prospective, multicenter study of the Research Consortium of New England Centers for Trauma (ReCONECT).

BACKGROUND: Although cervical spine CT (CSCT) accurately detects bony injuries, it may not identify all soft tissue injuries. Although some clinicians rely exclusively on a negative CT to remove spine precautions in unevaluable patients or patients with cervicalgia, others use MRI for that purpose. The objective of this study was to determine the rates of abnormal MRI after a negative CSCT. METHODS: Blunt trauma patients who either were unevaluable or had persistent midline cervicalgia and underwent an MRI of the C-spine after a negative CSCT were enrolled prospectively in eight Level I and II New England trauma centers. Demographics, injury patterns, CT and MRI results, and any changes in cervical spine management as a result of MRI imaging were recorded. RESULTS: A total of 767 patients had MRI because of cervicalgia (43.0%), inability to evaluate (44.1%), or both (9.4%). MRI was abnormal in 23.6% of all patients, including ligamentous injury (16.6%), soft tissue swelling (4.3%), vertebral disc injury (1.4%), and dural hematomas (1.3%). Rates of abnormal neurological signs or symptoms were not different among patients with normal versus abnormal MRI. (15.2 vs. 18.8%, p = 0.25). The c-collar was removed in 88.1% of patients with normal MRI and 13.3% of patients with an abnormal MRI. No patient required halo placement, but 11 patients underwent cervical spine surgery after the MRI results. Six of the eleven had neurological signs or symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: In a select population of patients, MRI identified additional injuries in 23.6% of patients despite a normal CSCT. It is uncertain if this is a true limitation of CT technology or represents subtle injuries missed in the interpretation of the scan. The clinical significance of these abnormal MRI findings cannot be determined from this study group. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic study, level IV.

Pathologic findings suggest long-term abnormality after conservative management of complex acute appendicitis.

Perforated or phlegmonous appendicitis is often treated with antibiotics and drainage as needed. The rationale, risk of recurrence, timing, or even the necessity of subsequent elective interval appendectomy (IA) is debated. We retrospectively reviewed all appendectomies performed at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center between 1997 and 2011. We determined if the appendix was removed emergently or as IA. Demographic characteristics, hospital length of stay, computed tomography (CT) results, and operation type (open or laparoscopic) were determined. In IA specimens, narrative pathology reports were assessed for evidence of anatomic, acute, or chronic abnormality. A total of 3562 patients had their appendix removed during this time period. Thirty-four patients were identified as having IA. Of these, only three (8.8%) had a pathologically normal appendix. All three patients were female and all had initially abnormal CT scans. Eight specimens (23.5%) had evidence of chronic and 10 (29.4%) had evidence of acute appendicitis. An additional 10 (29.4%) specimens contained a combination of acute and chronic inflammation. Mean time to operation in the IA group was 57.1 days (range, nine to 234 days) after index diagnosis by CT scan. Given the high percentage of IA specimens with acute or chronic appendicitis and the extremely high proportion (91%) of patients with pathologically abnormal specimens, it appears that IA may be justified in most cases.

Diagnosing appendicitis: evidence-based review of the diagnostic approach in 2014.

INTRODUCTION: Acute appendicitis is the most common abdominal emergency requiring emergency surgery. However, the diagnosis is often challenging and the decision to operate, observe or further work-up a patient is often unclear. The utility of clinical scoring systems (namely the Alvarado score), laboratory markers, and the development of novel markers in the diagnosis of appendicitis remains controversial. This article presents an update on the diagnostic approach to appendicitis through an evidence-based review. METHODS: We performed a broad Medline search of radiological imaging, the Alvarado score, common laboratory markers, and novel markers in patients with suspected appendicitis. RESULTS: Computed tomography (CT) is the most accurate mode of imaging for suspected cases of appendicitis, but the associated increase in radiation exposure is problematic. The Alvarado score is a clinical scoring system that is used to predict the likelihood of appendicitis based on signs, symptoms and laboratory data. It can help risk stratify patients with suspected appendicitis and potentially decrease the use of CT imaging in patients with certain Alvarado scores. White blood cell (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), granulocyte count and proportion of polymorphonuclear (PMN) cells are frequently elevated in patients with appendicitis, but are insufficient on their own as a diagnostic modality. When multiple markers are used in combination their diagnostic utility is greatly increased. Several novel markers have been proposed to aid in the diagnosis of appendicitis; however, while promising, most are only in the preliminary stages of being studied. CONCLUSION: While CT is the most accurate mode of imaging in suspected appendicitis, the accompanying radiation is a concern. Ultrasound may help in the diagnosis while decreasing the need for CT in certain circumstances. The Alvarado Score has good diagnostic utility at specific cutoff points. Laboratory markers have very limited diagnostic utility on their own but show promise when used in combination. Further studies are warranted for laboratory markers in combination and to validate potential novel markers.

A combined Richter's and de Garengeot's hernia.

INTRODUCTION: de Garengeot's hernia is very rare. Richter's hernia is responsible for 10% of acute strangulated hernias. PRESENTATION OF CASE: A 91-year-old woman with three days of abdominal distention was found on computed tomogram to have an incarcerated femoral hernia. Operation revealed a de Garengeot's hernia combined with a Richter's hernia of small bowel. Primary repair was performed along with appendectomy. DISCUSSION: We discuss these rare hernias, not previously reported in combination, and options for management. CONCLUSION: Combined de Garengeot's and Richter's hernias are rare, represent a significant diagnostic challenge, and should be repaired urgently to prevent ischemic bowel, or limit contamination if ischemia is already present. Use of computed tomography will likely lead to increased pre-operative diagnosis of this rare entity.

Emergency hernia repair in cirrhotic patients with ascites.

BACKGROUND: The optimal treatment for abdominal wall hernias in the setting of ascites is not clear. We describe our experience with emergent surgery for hernias in patients with cirrhosis and ascites and assess variables associated with poor short- and long-term outcomes to inform decisions about aggressive early repair. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of all emergency abdominal wall hernia repairs admitted from the emergency department from January 2000 to December 2011 in all patients with ascites caused by liver cirrhosis. Demographic data, comorbidities, complications, operative details, hospital length of stay, and admission model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score was determined. Follow-up was detailed via comprehensive liver service electronic records. RESULTS: There were 69 emergent hernia surgeries in 68 patients during the study period. There were two early deaths (both MELD score> 20). Multivariate analysis revealed MELD score (18% increase in risk with each point of MELD), preoperative anemia (sevenfold increase in risk), and preoperative small bowel obstruction (ninefold increase in risk) as predictive factors of major complication. In patients with MELD score greater than 10, morbidity was more than 50%, and major morbidity is greater than 12% when MELD score is greater than 20. CONCLUSION: Emergent hernia surgery in patients with ascites has low mortality but high morbidity and requires intense use of resources. To decrease the incidence of emergent hernia surgery, we recommend the aggressive use of elective repair. Emergent hernia repair, when necessary, should be performed at experienced centers and must include adequate ascites control with diuretic therapy and percutaneous paracentesis. Preoperative anemia and electrolyte abnormalities should be aggressively treated. Finally, while wound complications are common and frequently require reintervention, they are not associated with increased mortality. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic and epidemiologic study, level V.

Lactate clearance as a predictor of mortality in trauma patients.

BACKGROUND: Initial serum lactate has been associated with mortality in trauma patients. It is not known if lactate clearance is predictive of death in a broad cohort of trauma patients. METHODS: We enrolled 4,742 trauma patients who had an initial lactate measured during a 10-year period. Patients were identified via the trauma registry. Lactate clearance was calculated at 6 hours. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the independent contribution of both initial lactate and lactate clearance with mortality, after adjustment for severity of injury. RESULTS: Initial lactate level was strongly correlated with mortality: when lactate was less than 2.5 mg/dL, 5.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.5-6.2%) of patients died; with lactate 2.5 mg/dL to 4.0 mg/dL, mortality was 6.4% (95% CI, 5.1-7.8%); with lactate 4.0 mg/dL or greater, mortality was 18.8% (95% CI, 15.7-21.9%). After adjustment for age, Injury Severity Score (ISS), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, heart rate, and blood pressure, initial lactate remained independently associated with increased mortality, with adjusted odds ratios of 1.0, 1.5 (95% CI, 1.1-2.0) and 3.8 (95% CI, 2.8-5.3), for lactate less than 2.5 mg/dL, 2.5 mg/dL to 4.0 mg/dL, and 4.0 mg/dL or greater, respectively. Among patients with an initially elevated lactate (≥4.0 mg/dL), lower lactate clearance at 6 hours strongly and independently predicted an increased risk of death. For lactate clearances of 60% or greater, 30% to 59%, and less than 30%, the adjusted odds ratio for death were 1.0, 3.5 (95% CI 1.2-10.4), and 4.3 (95% CI, 1.5-12.6), respectively. CONCLUSION: Both initial lactate and lactate clearance at 6 hours independently predict death in trauma patients. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic study, level III.

Conservative management of a bilothorax resulting from blunt hepatic trauma.

Pleurobiliary fistula after blunt abdominal trauma is rare. We report a case managed with tube thoracostomy alone, without the need for biliary system drainage.

Health care and socioeconomic impact of falls in the elderly.

BACKGROUND: Elderly falls are associated with long hospital stays, major morbidity, and mortality. We sought to examine the fate of patients ≥75 years of age admitted after falls. METHODS: We reviewed all fall admissions in 2008. Causes, comorbidities, injuries, procedures, mortality, readmission, and costs were analyzed. RESULTS: Seven hundred eight patients ≥75 years old were admitted after a fall, with 89% being simple falls. Short-term mortality was 6%. Male sex, atrial fibrillation, acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure (CHF), intracranial hemorrhage, hospital-acquired pneumonia, trigger events, Clostridium difficile, and intubation were predictors of death (P < .05). Thirty-day readmission occurred in 14%; CHF, craniotomy, and acute renal failure were predictive. The median cost of hospitalization was $11,000 with cardiac disease, anemia, major orthopedic and neurosurgical procedures, pneumonia, and intubation as predictive. CONCLUSIONS: Simple falls in the elderly have high morbidity, mortality, and costs. Methodologies for prevention are warranted and should be studied intensively.

Lithopedion presenting as intra-abdominal abscess and fecal fistula: report of a case and review of the literature.

A rare case of unrecognized and long-standing lithopedion ("stone baby") with erosion into the bowel with fecal fistula formation is described. A literature review is also presented.

Evidence-based medicine applied to sentinel lymph node biopsy in patients with breast cancer.

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) has not been examined using the principles of evidence-based medicine (EBM). Specifically, likelihood ratios have not been used to assess the validity of SLNB. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) public database of the National Cancer Institute was used to establish the baseline or pretest probability of finding a positive lymph axillary node for each stage of breast cancer. Rates of false negative results of SLNB for all breast cancer stages were determined from the surgical literature. Positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated. For each stage of breast cancer, the Bayesian nomogram was used to find the post-test probability of missing a metastatic axillary node when the SLN was negative. The SEER database of 213,292 female patients with breast cancer yielded the following rates of positivity of axillary lymph nodes for each breast tumor size: T1a, 7.8 per cent; T1b, 13.3 per cent; T1c, 28.5 per cent; T2, 50.2 per cent; T3, 70.1 per cent. The combined data from 13 published studies of SLNB (6444 successful SLNBs) demonstrated a false negative rate of 8.5 per cent. The LR of a negative test is 0.086. According to the nomogram, the chances of missing a positive node for stage of cancer are as follows: T1a, 0.7 per cent; T1b, 1.5 per cent; T1c, 3.0 per cent; T2, 7 per cent; T3, 18 per cent. The risk of missing a positive axillary node can accurately be estimated for each stage of breast cancer using the LR, which is much more useful than the simple false negative rate. Surgeons should use this information when deciding whether to perform SLNB and in their informed consent discussions.