De-implementation strategy to reduce inappropriate use of intravenous and urinary catheters (RICAT): a multicentre, prospective, interrupted time-series and before and after study.

BACKGROUND: Catheter-associated bloodstream infections and urinary tract infections are frequently encountered health care-associated infections. We aimed to reduce inappropriate use of catheters to reduce health care-associated infections. METHODS: In this multicentre, interrupted time-series and before and after study, we introduced a de-implementation strategy with multifaceted interventions in seven hospitals in the Netherlands. Adult patients admitted to internal medicine, gastroenterology, geriatic, oncology, or pulmonology wards, and non-surgical acute admission units, and who had a (central or peripheral) venous or urinary catheter were eligible for inclusion. One of the interventions was that nurses in the participating wards attended educational meetings on appropriate catheter use. Data on catheter use were collected every 2 weeks by the primary research physician during the baseline period (7 months) and intervention period (7 months), which were separated by a 5 month transition period. The primary outcomes were percentages of short peripheral intravenous catheters and urinary catheters used inappropriately on the days of data collection. Indications for catheter use were based on international guidelines. This study is registered with Netherlands Trial Register, NL5438. FINDINGS: Between Sept 1, 2016, and April 1, 2018, we screened 6157 patients for inclusion, of whom 5696 were enrolled: 2650 patients in the baseline group, and 3046 in the intervention group. Inappropriate use of peripheral intravenous catheters occurred in 366 (22·0%, 95% CI 20·0 to 24·0) of 1665 patients in the baseline group and in 275 (14·4%, 12·8 to 16·0) of 1912 patients in the intervention group (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0·65, 95% CI 0·56 to 0·77, p<0·0001). Time-series analyses showed an absolute reduction in inappropriate use of peripheral intravenous catheters from baseline to intervention periods of 6·65% (95% CI 2·47 to 10·82, p=0·011). Inappropriate use of urinary catheters occurred in 105 (32·4%, 95% CI 27·3 to 37·8) of 324 patients in the baseline group compared with 96 (24·1%, 20·0 to 28·6) of 398 patients in the intervention group (IRR 0·74, 95% CI 0·56 to 0·98, p=0·013). Time-series analyses showed an absolute reduction in inappropriate use of urinary catheters of 6·34% (95% CI -12·46 to 25·13, p=0·524). INTERPRETATION: Our de-implementation strategy reduced inappropriate use of short peripheral intravenous catheters in patients who were not in the intensive care unit. The reduction of inappropriate use of urinary catheters was substantial, yet not statistically significant in time-series analysis due to a small sample size. The strategy appears well suited for broad-scale implementation to reduce health care-associated infections. FUNDING: Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development.

Factors associated with trial recruitment, preferences, and treatments received were elucidated in a comprehensive cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Recruitment to pragmatic trials is often difficult, and little is known about factors associated with key participation and treatment decisions. These were explored in the Prostate cancer testing and Treatment (ProtecT) study. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Baseline sociodemographic, patient-reported outcome, clinical history, and prostate cancer biopsy data were collected for all patients eligible to take part in the ProtecT trial, in a comprehensive cohort design. Men who rejected randomization specified a preferred option and were followed up identically to the randomized cohort. Factors associated with participation decisions, patient preferences, and reasons for changing treatment were explored. RESULTS: Of 2,664 men with clinically localized prostate cancer, 997 (37%) rejected randomization. Their treatment preferences and subsequent treatment choices/changes in both randomized and treatment choice cohorts were strongly associated with prostate cancer risk features: toward active monitoring for low-risk disease and toward radical options with higher risk prostate cancer. Among many factors measured, only a small number of weak associations were found for occupation groups and some patient symptoms. Similar percentages changed from the random allocation and initially stated preference. CONCLUSION: The comprehensive cohort design provided new insights into trial recruitment and participation decisions. Opportunities to improve recruitment by supporting recruiters with equipoise and patient preferences were identified.

Cost-effectiveness of laparoscopy as diagnostic tool before primary cytoreductive surgery in ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a diagnostic laparoscopy prior to primary cytoreductive surgery to prevent futile primary cytoreductive surgery (i.e. leaving >1cm residual disease) in patients suspected of advanced stage ovarian cancer. METHODS: An economic analysis was conducted alongside a randomized controlled trial in which patients suspected of advanced stage ovarian cancer who qualified for primary cytoreductive surgery were randomized to either laparoscopy or primary cytoreductive surgery. Direct medical costs from a health care perspective over a 6-month time horizon were analyzed. Health outcomes were expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and utility was based on patient's response to the EQ-5D questionnaires. We primarily focused on direct medical costs based on Dutch standard prices. RESULTS: We studied 201 patients, of whom 102 were randomized to laparoscopy and 99 to primary cytoreductive surgery. No significant difference in QALYs (utility=0.01; 95% CI 0.006 to 0.02) was observed. Laparoscopy reduced the number of futile laparotomies from 39% to 10%, while its costs were € 1400 per intervention, making the overall costs of both strategies comparable (difference € -80 per patient (95% CI -470 to 300)). Findings were consistent across various sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: In patients with suspected advanced stage ovarian cancer, a diagnostic laparoscopy reduced the number of futile laparotomies, without increasing total direct medical health care costs, or adversely affecting complications or quality of life.

De-implementation strategy to Reduce the Inappropriate use of urinary and intravenous CATheters: study protocol for the RICAT-study.

BACKGROUND: Urinary and (peripheral and central) intravenous catheters are widely used in hospitalized patients. However, up to 56% of the catheters do not have an appropriate indication and some serious complications with the use of these catheters can occur. The main objective of our quality improvement project is to reduce the use of catheters without an appropriate indication by 25-50%, and to evaluate the affecting factors of our de-implementation strategy. METHODS: In a multicenter, prospective interrupted time series analysis, several interventions to avoid inappropriate use of catheters will be conducted in seven hospitals in the Netherlands. Firstly, we will define a list of appropriate indications for urinary and (peripheral and central) intravenous catheters, which will restrict the use of catheters and urge catheter removal when the indication is no longer appropriate. Secondly, after the baseline measurements, the intervention will take place, which consists of a kick-off meeting, including a competitive feedback report of the baseline measurements, and education of healthcare workers and patients. Additional strategies based on the baseline data and local conditions are optional. The primary endpoint is the percentage of catheters with an inappropriate indication on the day of data collection before and after the de-implementation strategy. Secondary endpoints are catheter-related infections or other complications, catheter re-insertion rate, length of hospital (and ICU) stay and mortality. In addition, the cost-effectiveness of the de-implementation strategy will be calculated. DISCUSSION: This study aims to reduce the use of urinary and intravenous catheters with an inappropriate indication, and as a result reduce the catheter-related complications. If (cost-) effective it provides a tool for a nationwide approach to reduce catheter-related infections and other complications. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch trial registry: NTR6015 . Registered 9 August 2016.

Laparoscopy to Predict the Result of Primary Cytoreductive Surgery in Patients With Advanced Ovarian Cancer: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Purpose To investigate whether initial diagnostic laparoscopy can prevent futile primary cytoreductive surgery (PCS) by identifying patients with advanced-stage ovarian cancer in whom > 1 cm of residual disease will be left after PCS. Patients and Methods This multicenter, randomized controlled trial was undertaken within eight gynecologic cancer centers in the Netherlands. Patients with suspected advanced-stage ovarian cancer who qualified for PCS were eligible. Participating patients were randomly assigned to either laparoscopy or PCS. Laparoscopy was used to guide selection of primary treatment: either primary surgery or neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by interval surgery. The primary outcome was futile laparotomy, defined as a PCS with residual disease of > 1 cm. Primary analyses were performed according to the intention-to-treat principle. Results Between May 2011 and February 2015, 201 participants were included, of whom 102 were assigned to diagnostic laparoscopy and 99 to primary surgery. In the laparoscopy group, 63 (62%) of 102 patients underwent PCS versus 93 (94%) of 99 patients in the primary surgery group. Futile laparotomy occurred in 10 (10%) of 102 patients in the laparoscopy group versus 39 (39%) of 99 patients in the primary surgery group (relative risk, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.13 to 0.47; P < .001). In the laparoscopy group, three (3%) of 102 patients underwent both primary and interval surgery compared with 28 (28%) of 99 patients in the primary surgery group ( P < .001). Conclusion Diagnostic laparoscopy reduced the number of futile laparotomies in patients with suspected advanced-stage ovarian cancer. In women with a plan for PCS, these data suggest that performance of diagnostic laparoscopy first is reasonable and that if cytoreduction to < 1 cm of residual disease seems feasible, to proceed with PCS.

Nifedipine versus atosiban for threatened preterm birth (APOSTEL III): a multicentre, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In women with threatened preterm birth, delay of delivery by 48 h allows antenatal corticosteroids to improve neonatal outcomes. For this reason, tocolytics are often administered for 48 h; however, there is no consensus about which drug results in the best maternal and neonatal outcomes. In the APOSTEL III trial we aimed to compare the effectiveness and safety of the calcium-channel blocker nifedipine and the oxytocin inhibitor atosiban in women with threatened preterm birth. METHODS: We did this multicentre, randomised controlled trial in ten tertiary and nine teaching hospitals in the Netherlands and Belgium. Women with threatened preterm birth (gestational age 25-34 weeks) were randomly assigned (1:1) to either oral nifedipine or intravenous atosiban for 48 h. An independent data manager used a web-based computerised programme to randomly assign women in permuted block sizes of four, with groups stratified by centre. Clinicians, outcome assessors, and women were not masked to treatment group. The primary outcome was a composite of adverse perinatal outcomes, which included perinatal mortality, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, sepsis, intraventricular haemorrhage, periventricular leukomalacia, and necrotising enterocolitis. Analysis was done in all women and babies with follow-up data. The study is registered at the Dutch Clinical Trial Registry, number NTR2947. FINDINGS: Between July 6, 2011, and July 7, 2014, we randomly assigned 254 women to nifedipine and 256 to atosiban. Primary outcome data were available for 248 women and 297 babies in the nifedipine group and 255 women and 294 babies in the atosiban group. The primary outcome occurred in 42 babies (14%) in the nifedipine group and in 45 (15%) in the atosiban group (relative risk [RR] 0·91, 95% CI 0·61-1·37). 16 (5%) babies died in the nifedipine group and seven (2%) died in the atosiban group (RR 2·20, 95% CI 0·91-5·33); all deaths were deemed unlikely to be related to the study drug. Maternal adverse events did not differ between groups. INTERPRETATION: In women with threatened preterm birth, 48 h of tocolysis with nifedipine or atosiban results in similar perinatal outcomes. Future clinical research should focus on large placebo-controlled trials, powered for perinatal outcomes. FUNDING: ZonMw (the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development).

The accuracy of endometrial sampling in women with postmenopausal bleeding: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Postmenopausal bleeding (PMB) can be the first sign of endometrial cancer. In case of thickened endometrium, endometrial sampling is often used in these women. In this systematic review, we studied the accuracy of endometrial sampling for the diagnoses of endometrial cancer, atypical hyperplasia and endometrial disease (endometrial pathology, including benign polyps). We systematically searched the literature for studies comparing the results of endometrial sampling in women with postmenopausal bleeding with two different reference standards: blind dilatation and curettage (D&C) and hysteroscopy with histology. We assessed the quality of the detected studies by the QUADAS-2 tool. For each included study, we calculated the fraction of women in whom endometrial sampling failed. Furthermore, we extracted numbers of cases of endometrial cancer, atypical hyperplasia and endometrial disease that were identified or missed by endometrial sampling. We detected 12 studies reporting on 1029 women with postmenopausal bleeding: five studies with dilatation and curettage (D&C) and seven studies with hysteroscopy as a reference test. The weighted sensitivity of endometrial sampling with D&C as a reference for the diagnosis of endometrial cancer was 100% (range 100-100%) and 92% (71-100) for the diagnosis of atypical hyperplasia. Only one study reported sensitivity for endometrial disease, which was 76%. When hysteroscopy was used as a reference, weighted sensitivities of endometrial sampling were 90% (range 50-100), 82% (range 56-94) and 39% (21-69) for the diagnosis of endometrial cancer, atypical hyperplasia and endometrial disease, respectively. For all diagnosis studied and the reference test used, specificity was 98-100%. The weighted failure rate of endometrial sampling was 11% (range 1-53%), while insufficient samples were found in 31% (range 7-76%). In these women with insufficient or failed samples, an endometrial (pre) cancer was found in 7% (range 0-18%). In women with postmenopausal bleeding, the sensitivity of endometrial sampling to detect endometrial cancer and especially atypical hyperplasia and endometrial disease, including endometrial polyps, is lower than previously thought. Therefore, further diagnostic work-up for focal pathology is warranted, after a benign result of endometrial sampling.

Predicting posttraumatic stress disorder in children and parents following accidental child injury: evaluation of the Screening Tool for Early Predictors of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (STEPP).

BACKGROUND: Children and their parents are at risk of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) following injury due to pediatric accidental trauma. Screening could help predict those at greatest risk and provide an opportunity for monitoring so that early intervention may be provided. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Screening Tool for Early Predictors of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (STEPP) in a mixed-trauma sample in a non-English speaking country (the Netherlands). METHODS: Children aged 8-18 and one of their parents were recruited in two academic level I trauma centers. The STEPP was assessed in 161 children (mean age 13.9 years) and 156 parents within one week of the accident. Three months later, clinical diagnoses and symptoms of PTSD were assessed in 147 children and 135 parents. We used the Anxiety Disorders Interview Schedule for DSM-IV - Child and Parent version, the Children's Revised Impact of Event Scale and the Impact of Event Scale-Revised. Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses were performed to estimate the Areas Under the Curve as a measure of performance and to determine the optimal cut-off score in our sample. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated. The aim was to maximize both sensitivity and negative predictive values. RESULTS: PTSD was diagnosed in 12% of the children; 10% of their parents scored above the cut-off point for PTSD. At the originally recommended cut-off scores (4 for children, 3 for parents), the sensitivity in our sample was 41% for children and 54% for parents. Negative predictive values were 92% for both groups. Adjusting the cut-off scores to 2 improved sensitivity to 82% for children and 92% for parents, with negative predictive values of 92% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: With adjusted cut-off scores, the STEPP performed well: 82% of the children and 92% of the parents with a subsequent positive diagnosis were identified correctly. Special attention in the screening procedure is required because of a high rate of false positives. The STEPP appears to be a valid and useful instrument that can be used in the Netherlands as a first screening method in stepped psychotrauma care following accidents.

Indicators for Cervical Length in Twin Pregnancies.

OBJECTIVE: Cervical length (CL) is associated with the risk of preterm birth (PTB) in multiple pregnancies. However, the position of CL within the pathophysiological pathway of PTB is unclear, and it is unknown which factors are predictive for CL. This study aims to investigate whether in twin pregnancies baseline maternal and obstetrical characteristics are potential indicators for CL, to improve insight in the pathophysiological pathway of PTB. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analysis of data on twin pregnancies and CL measurement between 16 and 22 weeks. A set of 10 potential indicators, known to be associated with an increased risk of PTB and/or which have a plausible mechanism resulting in a change of CL were selected. We used multivariable linear regression with backward selection to identify independent indicators for CL. RESULTS: A total of 1,447 women with twin pregnancies were included. Mean CL was 43.7 (±8.9) mm. In multivariable analysis, age (0.27 mm/y; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.16 to 0.39), use of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) (-1.42 mm, 95% CI -2.6 to -0.25), and having delivered at term in a previous pregnancy (1.32 mm, 95% CI 0.25 to 2.39) were significantly associated with CL. CONCLUSION: This study shows that in twin pregnancies, age, use of ART and having delivered term in a previous pregnancy has an association with CL.

Cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies for the management of abnormal uterine bleeding (heavy menstrual bleeding and post-menopausal bleeding): a decision analysis.

BACKGROUND: Heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) and post-menopausal bleeding (PMB) together constitute the commonest gynaecological presentation in secondary care and impose substantial demands on health service resources. Accurate diagnosis is of key importance to realising effective treatment, reducing morbidity and, in the case of PMB, reducing mortality. There are many tests available, including transvaginal scan (TVS), endometrial biopsy (EBx), saline infusion sonography and outpatient hysteroscopy (OPH); however, optimal diagnostic work-up is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To determine the most cost-effective diagnostic testing strategy for the diagnosis and treatment of (i) HMB and (ii) PMB. DATA SOURCES: Parameter inputs were derived from systematic quantitative reviews, individual patient data (IPD) from existing data sets and focused searches for specific data. In the absence of data estimates, the consensus view of an expert clinical panel was obtained. METHODS: Two clinically informed decision-analytic models were constructed to reflect current service provision for the diagnostic work-up of women presenting with HMB and PMB. The model-based economic evaluation took the form of a cost-effectiveness analysis from the perspective of the NHS in a contemporary, 'one-stop' secondary care clinical setting, where all indicated testing modalities would be available during a single visit. RESULTS: Two potentially cost-effective testing strategies for the initial investigation of women with HMB were identified: OPH alone or in combination with EBx. Although a combination testing strategy of OPH + EBx was marginally more effective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was approximately £21,000 to gain one more satisfied patient, whereas for OPH it was just £360 when compared with treatment with the levonorgestrel intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) without investigation. Initial testing with OPH was the most cost-effective testing approach for women wishing to preserve fertility and for women with symptoms refractory to empirical treatment with a LNG-IUS. For the investigation of PMB, selective use of TVS based on historical risk prediction for the diagnostic work-up of women presenting with PMB generated an ICER compared with our reference strategy of 'no initial work-up' of £129,000 per extra woman surviving 5 years. The ICERs for the two other non-dominated testing strategies, combining history and TVS or combining OPH and TVS, were over £2M each. LIMITATIONS: In the absence of IPD, estimates of accuracy for test combinations presented some uncertainty where test results were modelled as being discordant. CONCLUSIONS: For initial investigation of women presenting to secondary care with HMB who do not require preservation of their fertility, our research suggests a choice between OPH alone or a combination of OPH and EBx. From our investigation, OPH appears to be the optimal first-line diagnostic test used for the investigation of women presenting to secondary care with HMB wishing to preserve their fertility or refractory to previous medical treatment with the LNG-IUS. We would suggest that the current recommendation of basing the initial investigation of women with PMB on the universal TVS measurement of endometrial thickness at a 5-mm threshold may need to be replaced by a strategy of restricting TVS to women with risk factors (e.g. increasing age-raised body mass index, diabetes or nulliparity), obtained from the preceding clinical assessment. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Endometrial thickness and pregnancy rates after IVF: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Thin endometrium on ultrasound in the course of ovarian hyperstimulation has been thought to be associated with poor success rates after IVF, even in the absence of prior intrauterine surgery or infection. To assess the clinical significance of endometrial thickness (EMT) for IVF outcome, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: The electronic databases Pubmed, Cochrane and Embase were searched up to October 2013 for articles that studied the association between EMT and IVF outcome. The articles had to be written in the English or Dutch language. Studies were included if two-by-two tables for EMT and pregnancy rates could be constructed. Study quality was scored using the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) checklist. Summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC) curves were estimated to assess the accuracy of EMT in the prediction of pregnancy. In addition, odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a Mantel-Haenszel random effect model expressing the association between EMT and pregnancy chances. Meta-regression was performed to determine if female age and number of oocytes at retrieval interacted in the estimated effect of EMT on IVF outcome. RESULTS: A total of 1170 studies was retrieved by the search. The overall quality of the 22 studies included in the review and meta-analysis was moderate. The estimated sROC curve indicated a virtually absent discriminatory capacity of EMT in the prediction of pregnancy. A thin endometrium (≤ 7 mm) was observed in only 2.4% of the reported cases (260/10 724). In these cases a trend towards lower ongoing pregnancy and live birth rates for women with EMT ≤ 7 mm was observed [OR 0.38 (95% CI 0.09-1.5)]. The probability of clinical pregnancy for an EMT ≤ 7 mm was significantly lower compared with cases with EMT > 7 mm [23.3% versus 48.1%, OR 0.42 (95% CI 0.27-0.67)]. Positive and negative predictive values for the outcome of clinical pregnancy 77 and 48%, respectively. The relationship between the number of oocytes and female age on the one hand and pregnancy on the other hand was very weak making correction for these variables unfeasible. CONCLUSIONS: Current data indicate that EMT has a limited capacity to identify women who have a low chance to conceive after IVF. The frequently reported cut-off of 7 mm is related to a lower chance of pregnancy, but occurs infrequently. The use of EMT as a tool to decide on cycle cancellation, freezing of all embryos or refraining from further IVF treatment seems not to be justified based on the current meta-analysis. Further research is needed to investigate the real independent significance of EMT in IVF.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of intrauterine adhesions after miscarriage: prevalence, risk factors and long-term reproductive outcome.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 15-20% of all clinically confirmed pregnancies end in a miscarriage. Intrauterine adhesions (IUAs) are a possible complication after miscarriage, but their prevalence and the contribution of possible risk factors have not been elucidated yet. In addition, the long-term reproductive outcome in relation to IUAs has to be elucidated. METHODS: We systematically searched the literature for studies that prospectively assessed the prevalence and extent of IUAs in women who suffered a miscarriage. To be included, women diagnosed with a current miscarriage had to be systematically evaluated within 12 months by hysteroscopy after either spontaneous expulsion or medical or surgical treatment. Studies that included women with a history of recurrent miscarriage only or that evaluated the IUAs after elective abortion or beyond 12 months after the last miscarriage were not included. Subsequently, long-term reproductive outcomes after expectant (conservative), medical or surgical management were assessed in women with and without post-miscarriage IUAs. RESULTS: We included 10 prospective studies reporting on 912 women with hysteroscopic evaluation within 12 months of miscarriage and 8 prospective studies, including 1770 women, reporting long-term reproductive outcome. IUAs were detected in 183 women, resulting in a pooled prevalence of 19.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 12.8-27.5%]. The extent of IUAs was reported in 124 women (67.8%) and was mild, moderate and severe respectively in 58.1, 28.2 and 13.7% of cases. Relative to women with one miscarriage, women with two or three or more miscarriages showed an increased risk of IUAs by a pooled OR of 1.41 and 2.1, respectively. The number of dilatation and curettage (D&C) procedures seemed to be the main driver behind these associations. A total of 150 congenital and acquired intrauterine abnormalities were encountered in 675 women, resulting in a pooled prevalence of 22.4% (95% CI: 16.3-29.9%). Similar reproductive outcomes were reported subsequent to conservative, medical or surgical management for miscarriage, although the numbers of studies and of included women were limited. No studies reported long-term reproductive outcomes following post-miscarriage IUAs. CONCLUSIONS: IUAs are frequently encountered, in one in five women after miscarriage. In more than half of these, the severity and extent of the adhesions was mild, with unknown clinical relevance. Recurrent miscarriages and D&C procedures were identified as risk factors for adhesion formation. Congenital and acquired intrauterine abnormalities such as polyps or fibroids were frequently identified. There were no studies reporting on the link between IUAs and long-term reproductive outcome after miscarriage, while similar pregnancy outcomes were reported subsequent to conservative, medical or surgical management. Although this review does not allow strong clinical conclusions on treatment management, it signals an important clinical problem. Treatment strategies are proposed to minimize the number of D&C in an attempt to reduce IUAs.

Factors attributing to the failure of endometrial sampling in women with postmenopausal bleeding.

OBJECTIVE: To determine which doctor- and patient-related factors affect failure of outpatient endometrial sampling in women with postmenopausal bleeding, and to develop a multivariable prediction model to select women with a high probability of failed sampling. DESIGN: Prospective multicenter cohort study. SETTING: Three teaching hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Women presenting with postmenopausal bleeding with an indication for endometrial sampling. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression was performed to evaluate the impact of doctor's training level and patient's characteristics on failure of sampling. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Failure of endometrial sampling, classified as technical failure or insufficient tissue for diagnosis. RESULTS: In 74 (20.8%) of the 356 included women, sampling technically failed, and in 84 (29.8%) the amount of tissue was insufficient for diagnosis. Nulliparity [odds ratio (OR) 3.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-7.9] and advanced age (OR 1.03 per year, 95% CI 1.00-1.06) were associated with technical failure. Advanced age was associated with insufficient sampling (OR 1.04 per year, 95% CI 1.01-1.07), and endometrial thickness >12 mm decreased the chance of insufficient sampling (OR 0.3, 95%CI 0.1-0.8). The prediction model for total failure had an area under the ROC curve of 0.64 (95% CI 0.58-0.70). CONCLUSIONS: In women with postmenopausal bleeding, the failure rate of endometrial sampling is relatively high and is associated with nulliparity and advanced age. Endometrial thickness >12 mm decreased the chance of failure. A multivariable prediction model for total failure based on patient characteristics has a moderate capacity to discriminate between women at high or low risk of failure.

Surgical versus expectant management in women with an incomplete evacuation of the uterus after treatment with misoprostol for miscarriage: the MisoREST trial.

BACKGROUND: Medical treatment with misoprostol is a non-invasive and inexpensive treatment option in first trimester miscarriage. However, about 30% of women treated with misoprostol have incomplete evacuation of the uterus. Despite being relatively asymptomatic in most cases, this finding often leads to additional surgical treatment (curettage). A comparison of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of surgical management versus expectant management is lacking in women with incomplete miscarriage after misoprostol. METHODS/DESIGN: The proposed study is a multicentre randomized controlled trial that assesses the costs and effects of curettage versus expectant management in women with incomplete evacuation of the uterus after misoprostol treatment for first trimester miscarriage.Eligible women will be randomized, after informed consent, within 24 hours after identification of incomplete evacuation of the uterus by ultrasound scanning. Women are randomly allocated to surgical or expectant management. Curettage is performed within three days after randomization.Primary outcome is the sonographic finding of an empty uterus (maximal diameter of any contents of the uterine cavity < 10 millimeters) six weeks after study entry. Secondary outcomes are patients' quality of life, surgical outcome parameters, the type and number of re-interventions during the first three months and pregnancy rates and outcome 12 months after study entry. DISCUSSION: This trial will provide evidence for the (cost) effectiveness of surgical versus expectant management in women with incomplete evacuation of the uterus after misoprostol treatment for first trimester miscarriage. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch Trial Register: NTR3110.

Effect of maintenance tocolysis with nifedipine in threatened preterm labor on perinatal outcomes: a randomized controlled trial.

IMPORTANCE: In threatened preterm labor, maintenance tocolysis with nifedipine, after an initial course of tocolysis and corticosteroids for 48 hours, may improve perinatal outcome. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether maintenance tocolysis with nifedipine will reduce adverse perinatal outcomes due to premature birth. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: APOSTEL-II (Assessment of Perinatal Outcome with Sustained Tocolysis in Early Labor) is a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial performed in 11 perinatal units including all tertiary centers in The Netherlands. From June 2008 to February 2010, women with threatened preterm labor between 26 weeks (plus 0 days) and 32 weeks (plus 2 days) gestation, who had not delivered after 48 hours of tocolysis and a completed course of corticosteroids, were enrolled. Surviving infants were followed up until 6 months after birth (ended August 2010). INTERVENTION: Randomization assigned 406 women to maintenance tocolysis with nifedipine orally (80 mg/d; n = 201) or placebo (n = 205) for 12 days. Assigned treatment was masked from investigators, participants, clinicians, and research nurses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was a composite of adverse perinatal outcomes (perinatal death, chronic lung disease, neonatal sepsis, intraventricular hemorrhage >grade 2, periventricular leukomalacia >grade 1, or necrotizing enterocolitis). Analyses were completed on an intention-to-treat basis. RESULTS: Mean (SD) gestational age at randomization was 29.2 (1.7) weeks for both groups. Adverse perinatal outcome was not significantly different between groups: 11.9% (24/201; 95% CI, 7.5%-16.4%) for nifedipine vs 13.7% (28/205; 95% CI, 9.0%-18.4%) for placebo (relative risk, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.53-1.45). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In patients with threatened preterm labor, nifedipine-maintained tocolysis did not result in a statistically significant reduction in adverse perinatal outcomes when compared with placebo. Although the lower than anticipated rate of adverse perinatal outcomes in the control group indicates that a benefit of nifedipine cannot completely be excluded, its use for maintenance tocolysis does not appear beneficial at this time. TRIAL REGISTRATION: trialregister.nl Identifier: NTR1336.

Perinatal risk-indicators for long-term respiratory morbidity among preterm or very low birth weight neonates.

OBJECTIVES: To develop prediction models for long-term respiratory morbidity. To explore if respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) is a risk-indicator for long-term respiratory morbidity and to identify other perinatal risk-indicators for long-term respiratory morbidity. STUDY DESIGN: In the Dutch POPS cohort 1338 live born infants delivered in The Netherlands in 1983, either before 32 completed weeks gestation and/or with a birth weight below 1500 g, were followed prospectively. We used multivariable logistic regression analyses to construct three prediction models for respiratory morbidity at 2, 5 and 19 years of age. RESULTS: At 2 years of age, maternal smoking (adjusted OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.0-2.4), prolonged rupture of membranes (adjusted OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3-4.1), pre-eclampsia (adjusted OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-4.1), male gender (adjusted OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.0) and BPD (adjusted OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.2) were significantly associated with respiratory morbidity. Prolonged rupture of membranes (adjusted OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.6-8.5), family history of asthma (adjusted OR 5.9, 95% CI 2.7-13.0) and BPD (adjusted OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-3.0) were significantly associated with respiratory morbidity at 5 years of age. At 19 years of age only higher social class was associated with decreased respiratory morbidity (adjusted OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.41-0.99). The areas under the curves (AUC) were 0.65, 0.71 and 0.61 respectively. The prediction models for respiratory morbidity at 2 and 5 years of age showed a good calibration, while the calibration plot for respiratory morbidity at 19 year was less optimal. CONCLUSIONS: RDS is not a risk-indicator for long-term respiratory morbidity at 2, 5 and 19 years in this cohort (OR 1.2, 95% 0.88-1.7; 1.3, 95% 0.88-2.0; OR 0.91, 95% 0.56-1.5 respectively). Future obstetric studies interested in the effect of a specific perinatal intervention on long-term respiratory morbidity, should consider taking bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) as primary outcome instead of RDS.

Prediction models in women with postmenopausal bleeding: a systematic review.

Postmenopausal bleeding is associated with an elevated risk of having endometrial cancer. The aim of this review is to give an overview of existing prediction models on endometrial cancer in women with postmenopausal bleeding. In a systematic search of the literature, we identified nine prognostic studies, of which we assessed the quality, the different phases of development and their performance. From these data, we identified the most important predictor variables. None of the detected models completed external validation or impact analysis. Models including power Doppler showed best performance in internal validation, but Doppler in general gynecological practice is not easily accessible. We can conclude that we have indications that the first step in the approach of women with postmenopausal bleeding should be to distinguish between women with low risk versus high risk of having endometrial carcinoma and the next step would be to refer patients for further (invasive) testing.

Diagnostic strategies for endometrial cancer in women with postmenopausal bleeding: cost-effectiveness of individualized strategies.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies incorporating the diagnostic value of patient characteristics for endometrial carcinoma using prediction models. STUDY DESIGN: A decision analytic model was created to compare four diagnostic strategies for women with postmenopausal bleeding: the main outcome measures were 5 year survival, costs, and cost-effectiveness of three model based strategies compared to the strategy reflecting current practice. RESULTS: A strategy selecting women for endometrial biopsy based on their history only, dominated all other strategies (more effective, less cost). In a clinical scenario where transvaginal sonography (TVS) was assumed to be an integral part of the consultation without additional costs, a strategy selecting high-risk women for TVS became the most cost-effective strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies taking into account the individual probability based on a prognostic model are less costly than the currently applied strategy for a similar effectiveness. The most cost-effective strategy depends on the clinical setting: in areas where TVS is performed by the consulting gynecologist without extra costs, selective TVS based on history is the most cost-effective strategy. When TVS is not readily available and therefore incurs extra costs, a risk selection based on patient characteristics is most cost-effective.

Laparoscopy to predict the result of primary cytoreductive surgery in advanced ovarian cancer patients (LapOvCa-trial): a multicentre randomized controlled study.

BACKGROUND: Standard treatment of advanced ovarian cancer is surgery and chemotherapy. The goal of surgery is to remove all macroscopic tumour, as the amount of residual tumour is the most important prognostic factor for survival. When removal off all tumour is considered not feasible, neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) in combination with interval debulking surgery (IDS) is performed. Current methods of staging are not always accurate in predicting surgical outcome, since approximately 40% of patients will have more than 1 cm residual tumour after primary debulking surgery (PDS). In this study we aim to assess whether adding laparoscopy to the diagnostic work-up of patients suspected of advanced ovarian carcinoma may prevent unsuccessful primary debulking surgery for ovarian cancer. METHODS: Multicentre randomized controlled trial, including all gynaecologic oncologic centres in the Netherlands and their affiliated hospitals. Patients are eligible when they are planned for PDS after conventional staging. Participants are randomized between direct PDS or additional diagnostic laparoscopy. Depending on the result of laparoscopy patients are treated by PDS within three weeks, followed by six courses of platinum based chemotherapy or with NACT and IDS 3-4 weeks after three courses of chemotherapy, followed by another three courses of chemotherapy. Primary outcome measure is the proportion of PDS's leaving more than one centimetre tumour residual in each arm. In total 200 patients will be randomized. Data will be analysed according to intention to treat. DISCUSSION: Patients who have disease considered to be resectable to less than one centimetre should undergo PDS to improve prognosis. However, there is a need for better diagnostic procedures because the current number of debulking surgeries leaving more than one centimetre residual tumour is still high. Laparoscopy before starting treatment for ovarian cancer can be an additional diagnostic tool to predict the outcome of PDS. Despite the absence of strong evidence and despite the possible complications, laparoscopy is already implemented in many countries. We propose a randomized multicentre trial to provide evidence on the effectiveness of laparoscopy before primary surgery for advanced stage ovarian cancer patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register number NTR2644.

How to deal with double partial verification when evaluating two index tests in relation to a reference test?

Research into the diagnostic accuracy of clinical tests is often hampered by single or double partial verification mechanisms, that is, not all patients have their disease status verified by a reference test, neither do all patients receive all tests under evaluation (index tests). We show methods that reduce verification bias introduced when omitting data from partially tested patients. Adjustment techniques are well established when there are no missing index tests and when the reference test is 'missing at random'. However, in practice, index tests tend to be omitted, and the choice of applying a reference test may depend on unobserved variables related to disease status, that is, verification may be missing not at random (MNAR). We study double partial verification in a clinical example from reproductive medicine in which we analyse the diagnostic values of the chlamydia antibody test and the hysterosalpingography in relation to a diagnostic laparoscopy. First, we plot all possible combinations of sensitivity and specificity of both index tests in two test ignorance regions. Then, we construct models in which we impose different assumptions for the verification process. We allow for missing index tests, study the influence of patient characteristics and study the accuracy estimates if an MNAR mechanism would operate. It is shown that data on tests used in the diagnostic process of the same population are preferably studied jointly and that the influence of an MNAR verification process was limited in a clinical study where more than half of the patients did not have the reference test.