Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40-74 years. METHODS: Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40-64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. FINDINGS: Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. INTERPRETATION: Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Inequalities in non-communicable diseases and effective responses.

In most countries, people who have a low socioeconomic status and those who live in poor or marginalised communities have a higher risk of dying from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) than do more advantaged groups and communities. Smoking rates, blood pressure, and several other NCD risk factors are often higher in groups with low socioeconomic status than in those with high socioeconomic status; the social gradient also depends on the country's stage of economic development, cultural factors, and social and health policies. Social inequalities in risk factors account for more than half of inequalities in major NCDs, especially for cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. People in low-income countries and those with low socioeconomic status also have worse access to health care for timely diagnosis and treatment of NCDs than do those in high-income countries or those with higher socioeconomic status. Reduction of NCDs in disadvantaged groups is necessary to achieve substantial decreases in the total NCD burden, making them mutually reinforcing priorities. Effective actions to reduce NCD inequalities include equitable early childhood development programmes and education; removal of barriers to secure employment in disadvantaged groups; comprehensive strategies for tobacco and alcohol control and for dietary salt reduction that target low socioeconomic status groups; universal, financially and physically accessible, high-quality primary care for delivery of preventive interventions and for early detection and treatment of NCDs; and universal insurance and other mechanisms to remove financial barriers to health care.

Individual-based primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Cambodia and Mongolia: early identification and management of hypertension and diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: To assess the coverage of individual-based primary prevention strategies for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Cambodia and Mongolia: specifically the early identification of hypertension and diabetes mellitus, major proximate physiological CVD risk factors, and management with pharmaceutical and lifestyle advice interventions. METHODS: Analysis of data collected in national cross-sectional STEPS surveys in 2009 (Mongolia) and 2010 (Cambodia) involving participants aged 25-64 years: 5433 in Cambodia and 4539 in Mongolia. RESULTS: Mongolia has higher prevalence of CVD risk factors than Cambodia--hypertension (36.5% versus 12.3%), diabetes (6.3% versus 3.1%), hypercholesterolemia (8.5% versus 3.2%), and overweight (52.5% versus 15.5%). The difference in tobacco smoking was less notable (32.1% versus 29.4%).Coverage with prior testing for blood glucose in the priority age group 35-64 years remains limited (16.5% in Cambodia and 21.7% in Mongolia). Coverage is higher for hypertension. A large burden of both hypertension and diabetes remains unidentified at current strategies for early identification: only 45.4% (Cambodia) to 65.8% (Mongolia) of all hypertensives and 22.8% (Mongolia) to 50.3% (Cambodia) of all diabetics in the age group 35-64 years had been previously diagnosed. Approximately half of all hypertensives and of all diabetics in both countries were untreated. 7.2% and 12.2% of total hypertensive population and 5.9% and 16.1% of total diabetic population in Cambodia and Mongolia, respectively, were untreated despite being previously diagnosed.Only 24.1% and 28.6% of all hypertensives and 15.9% and 23.9% of all diabetics in Mongolia and Cambodia, respectively were adequately controlled. Estimates suggest deficits in delivery of important advice for lifestyle interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Multifaceted strategies are required to improve early identification, initiation of treatment and improving quality of treatment for common CVD risk factors. Periodic population-based surveys including questions on medical and treatment history and the context of testing and treatment can facilitate monitoring of individual-based prevention strategies.

First-ever, door-to-door cross-sectional representative study in Prey Veng province (Cambodia).

PURPOSE: To estimate the lifetime prevalence of epilepsy in Prey Veng province (Cambodia). METHODS: Door-to-door screening was performed using a random cluster survey whereby all people >1 year of age were screened for epilepsy by using a validated and standardized questionnaire for epilepsy in tropical countries. Suspected epilepsy patients identified by the questionnaire were revisited and examined by epileptologists. The confirmation of epilepsy was based on an in-depth clinical examination. Electroencephalograms were recorded at the community dispensary. KEY FINDINGS: Five hundred three potential epilepsy cases were identified from 16,510 screened subjects, and 96 were diagnosed to have epilepsy. An overall prevalence of 5.8 per 1,000 [95% confidence interval (CI) 4.6-7.0 per 1,000] was obtained. Generalized epilepsy (76%) was more common than partial epilepsy (12.5%). Three cases were of generalized myoclonic epilepsy (3.1%) and one case each (1.0%) were of absence and olfactory partial epilepsy. Six cases (5.2%) had more than one seizure type [one case with absence + generalized tonic-clonic (GTC), one case each with GTC + partial seizures with secondary generalization and absence + generalized myoclonic seizures and absence + simple partial seizures, and two cases with GTC + complex partial seizures]. Electroencephalography (EEG) studies revealed spike and wave discharges in 43.8%, focal spikes in 21.0%, generalized slow waves in 19.2%, and generalized slowing of background in 15.7%. SIGNIFICANCE: This is the first population-based study in Cambodia that had epilepsy as a primary objective, and compared to Western and neighboring countries it shows a lower prevalence.