The 45 and Up Study: reflecting on contributions to global evidence using case studies on cardiovascular disease and smoking.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: To describe the attributes that have underscored the success of the 45 and Up Study (the Study) and demonstrate its value by reflecting on two case studies: our research on socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular disease; and the harms of smoking. Type of program or service: The Study is the largest study of healthy ageing in Australia, and one of the biggest in the world; it recruited 267 357 participants aged 45 years and older from NSW, Australia from 2005 to 2009. For more than 15 years, it has provided high-quality evidence on a broad range of public health related issues. We reflect on its value using two research case studies. RESULTS: Four key attributes have enabled the success of the Study: its establishment as a collaborative resource, including early and ongoing engagement with researchers and policy and practice partners; its large scale, which makes it ideally suited to quantify associations between risk factors and health outcomes, including for high priority populations; high quality self-reported survey data; and linkage to routinely collected administrative data, including specialised data. Novel Australian findings on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and smoking illustrate how the Study has contributed to national and international evidence, informing policy and practice. Results on CVD demonstrated individual-level education-related inequalities in CVD incidence and mortality, and greater use of pharmacotherapy for secondary prevention of CVD, in people with low versus high socioeconomic status. In terms of smoking, Study data showed that current smokers have around three times the mortality of never-smokers; that even "light" smoking of <14 cigarettes per day doubles mortality; that quitting is beneficial at any age; that smoking increases the risk of multiple cancer types; and that smoking causes half of deaths in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults aged 45 years and over and more than one-third of all deaths in the population. This evidence has been used by more than 50 government and non-government organisations, including contributing to legislation, policy and national and international monitoring and reporting. LESSONS LEARNT: The Study has fulfilled a vital role in public health research and practice in Australia, providing locally relevant data to enable research on health issues of importance, including health inequity. Through ongoing partnerships, the Study's data has contributed to international scientific evidence and been used to inform public health policy and practice. It has also been used as a focus for collaboration and capacity building.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health checks: sociodemographic characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health check claims in Australian adults in relation to sociodemographic and health characteristics, including prior cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CVD risk factors. METHODS: The study involved analysis of baseline data (2006-2009) from the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study, involving 1753 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults in New South Wales, Australia, linked to Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) hospital and death data (to December 2015). The outcome was a claim for receiving a Medicare-funded Health Assessment for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander People (MBS item 715) in the 2 years before December 2015. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for receiving a health check in relation to sociodemographic and health characteristics. RESULTS: One-third (32%) of participants received at least one Medicare-funded health check in the 2-year period. The probability of receiving a health check was higher for women than men (adjusted OR 1.47; 95% CI 1.18, 1.84), for those with lowest education than for those with highest education (OR 1.58; CI 1.11, 2.24), for those in a regional area (OR 1.56; CI 1.22, 2.01) or remote area (OR 2.38; CI 1.8, 3.16) than for those in major cities, for those with prior CVD than for those without (OR 1.80; CI 1.42, 2.27), for those with CVD risk factors than for those without (adjusted OR between 1.28 and 2.28, depending on risk factor), for those with poor self-rated health than for those with excellent self-rated health (OR 3.15; CI 1.76, 6.65) and for those with more than 10 visits to a general practitioner (GP) per year than for those with 0-2 visits (OR 33.62; CI 13.45, 84.02). Additional adjustment for number of GP visits or self-rated health substantially attenuated ORs for prior CVD and most CVD risk factors. When mutually adjusted, use of GP services and poorer self-rated health remained strongly associated with receiving a health check. CONCLUSIONS: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with the greatest healthcare need and at highest risk of CVD were more likely to receive a health check; however, a significant proportion of those who were eligible had not received this preventive care intervention. Findings indicate that there is greater potential for the use of health checks (MBS item 715) in improving identification and management of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people at high risk of CVD, potentially preventing future CVD events.

Observed and predicted premature mortality in Australia due to non-communicable diseases: a population-based study examining progress towards the WHO 25X25 goal.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization's (WHO) 25X25 goal aims for a 25% relative reduction in premature death due to four non-communicable diseases (NCD4)-cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes-by 2025 compared to 2010. This study aimed to quantify the premature mortality in the Australian population due to NCD4, quantify the variation in mortality rates by age and sex, predict the premature mortality due to NCD4 in 2025 and evaluate the progress towards the WHO 25X25 goal. METHODS: A population-based study using cause-specific mortality data of all deaths which occurred in Australia from 2010 to 2016 and registered up to 2017, for adults aged 30-69 years, was conducted. Age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) and probability of death for NCD4 were calculated for each year. ASMRs in 2016 were calculated for men and women. Deaths and the probability of death in 2025 were predicted using Poisson regression based on data from 2006 to 2016. To assess the progress against the WHO 25X25 goal, the relative reduction in the probability of death from NCD4 conditions in 2025 compared to 2010 was calculated. RESULTS: ASMRs for NCD4 decreased from 2010 to 2016, except for diabetes which increased on average by 2.5% per year. Across sociodemographic factors, ASMRs were highest in males and increased with age. The projected probability of premature death in 2025 was 7.36%, equivalent to a relative reduction of 25.16% compared to 2010 levels. CONCLUSIONS: Premature mortality due to cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory diseases and diabetes declined in Australia from 2010 to 2016. This trend is consistent across age groups and by sex, and higher mortality rates were observed in males and at older ages. Nationally, if the current trends continue, we estimate that Australia will achieve a 25.16% relative reduction in premature deaths due to NCD4 in 2025 compared to 2010, signifying substantial progress towards the WHO 25X25 goal. Concerted efforts will need to continue to meet the 25X25 goal, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Comparison of cardiovascular disease risk factors, assessment and management in men and women, including consideration of absolute risk: a nationally representative cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is highly preventable and optimal treatments based on absolute risk can halve risk of future events. Compared with women, men have higher risks of developing CVD. However, women can experience suboptimal treatment. We aimed to quantify sex differences in CVD risk, assessment and treatment in Australian adults. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS, SETTING: Cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative data from interview, physical measures, medication review and blood and urine samples, from 2011 to 2012 Australian Health Survey participants aged 45-74 (n=11 518). OUTCOME MEASURES: CVD risk factors, absolute 5-year risk of a primary CVD event, blood pressure and cholesterol assessment in the previous 2 and 5 years and use of recommended CVD preventive medications were compared using Poisson regression to estimate age-adjusted male versus female prevalence ratios (PRs). RESULTS: Women had a generally more favourable CVD risk factor profile than men, including lower: current smoking prevalence (women=14.5%; men=18.4%, PR=0.78, 95% CI=0.70 to 0.88); body mass index (women (mean)=28.3 kg/m2; men (mean)=28.8 kg/m2, p<0.01); systolic and diastolic blood pressure (systolic: women (mean)=127.1 mm Hg; men (mean)=130.5 mm Hg, p<0.001); blood glucose (women (mean)=5.2 mmol/L; men (mean)=5.5 mmol/L); diabetes prevalence (women=6.8%; men=12.5%, PR=0.55, 95% CI=0.44 to 0.67); prior CVD (women=7.9%; men=11.3%) and absolute primary CVD risk (absolute 5-year CVD risk >15%: women=6.6%, 95% CI=5.4 to 7.8; men=15.4%, 95% CI=13.9% to 16.9%). Compared with men, women had higher low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein and total cholesterol and sedentary behaviour and lower physical activity. Blood pressure and cholesterol assessment were common in both sexes. Among those at high absolute risk, age-adjusted proportions receiving recommended CVD medications were low, without sex differences (women=21.3%; men=23.8%, PR=0.93, 95% CI=0.49 to 1.78). Fewer women than men with prior atherosclerotic CVD were receiving recommended treatment (women=21.8%, men=41.4%, PR=0.55, 95% CI=0.31 to 0.96). CONCLUSION: Women have a more favourable CVD risk factor profile than men. Preventive treatment is uncommon and women with prior atherosclerotic CVD are around half as likely as men to be receiving recommended treatment.

Cardiovascular disease risk assessment for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults aged under 35 years: a consensus statement.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. This statement from the Australian Chronic Disease Prevention Alliance, the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, the National Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation and the Editorial Committee for Remote Primary Health Care Manuals communicates the latest consensus advice of guideline developers, aligning recommendations on the age to commence Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander CVD risk assessment across three guidelines. MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS: In Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples without existing CVD: CVD risk factor screening should commence from the age of 18 years at the latest, including for blood glucose level or glycated haemoglobin, estimated glomerular filtration rate, serum lipids, urine albumin to creatinine ratio, and other risk factors such as blood pressure, history of familial hypercholesterolaemia, and smoking status. Individuals aged 18-29 years with the following clinical conditions are automatically conferred high CVD risk: ▶type 2 diabetes and microalbuminuria; ▶moderate to severe chronic kidney disease; ▶systolic blood pressure ≥ 180 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 110 mmHg; ▶familial hypercholesterolaemia; or ▶serum total cholesterol > 7.5 mmol/L. Assessment using the National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance absolute CVD risk algorithm should commence from the age of 30 years at the latest - consider upward adjustment of calculated CVD risk score, accounting for local guideline use, risk factor and CVD epidemiology, and clinical discretion. Assessment should occur as part of an annual health check or opportunistically. Subsequent review should be conducted according to level of risk. CHANGES IN MANAGEMENT AS A RESULT OF THIS STATEMENT: From age 18 years (at the latest), Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults should undergo CVD risk factor screening, and from age 30 years (at the latest), they should undergo absolute CVD risk assessment using the NVDPA risk algorithm.

A Prospective Study of Health Conditions Related to Alcohol Consumption Cessation Among 97,852 Drinkers Aged 45 and Over in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that people who develop serious health conditions are likely to cease drinking alcohol (sometimes known as "sick-quitters"). We quantified the likelihood of quitting drinking in relation to the onset of a variety of health conditions. METHODS: Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of ceasing alcohol consumption after diagnosis of 28 health conditions and 4 general indicators of health were derived from logistic regression among 97,852 drinkers aged ≥ 45 years between baseline (2006 to 2009) and median 5.3 years of follow-up in the New South Wales 45 and Up Study. Incident health conditions at follow-up were self-reported. RESULTS: At follow-up, 9.6% (n = 9,438) of drinkers had ceased drinking. Drinking cessation was significantly associated with 24 of 32 health conditions examined: 15.4% of participants with newly diagnosed diabetes quit drinking (OR for quitting vs. continuing 1.77, 95% CI: 1.60 to 1.96), 16.4% with Parkinson's disease (1.71, 1.35 to 2.17), 17.8% with poor memory (1.68, 1.43 to 1.97), 19.2% with hip fracture (1.64, 1.30 to 2.06), 14.7% with stroke (1.45, 1.27 to 1.66), 12.5% with depression (1.40, 1.26 to 1.55), 15.0% with breast cancer (1.38, 1.18 to 1.61), 12.3% with heart disease (1.34, 1.25 to 1.44), and 13.3% with osteoarthritis (1.22, 1.12 to 1.33). Strong associations with quitting were observed in those with a decline in self-rated overall health (2.93, 2.53 to 3.40) and quality of life (2.68, 2.24 to 3.21). Some health conditions not significantly associated with quitting were prostate cancer, melanoma, nonmelanoma skin cancer, hay fever, and hearing loss. Findings were generally consistent for men and women, by age group and by smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnosis with a variety of health conditions appears to prompt drinking cessation in older adults.

Interleukin-6 Receptor Signaling and Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Growth Rates.

BACKGROUND: The Asp358Ala variant (rs2228145; A>C) in the IL (interleukin)-6 receptor ( IL6R) gene has been implicated in the development of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs), but its effect on AAA growth over time is not known. We aimed to investigate the clinical association between the IL6R-Asp358Ala variant and AAA growth and to assess the effect of blocking the IL-6 signaling pathway in mouse models of aortic aneurysm rupture or dissection. METHODS: Using data from 2863 participants with AAA from 9 prospective cohorts, age- and sex-adjusted mixed-effects linear regression models were used to estimate the association between the IL6R-Asp358Ala variant and annual change in AAA diameter (mm/y). In a series of complementary randomized trials in mice, the effect of blocking the IL-6 signaling pathways was assessed on plasma biomarkers, systolic blood pressure, aneurysm diameter, and time to aortic rupture and death. RESULTS: After adjusting for age and sex, baseline aneurysm size was 0.55 mm (95% CI, 0.13-0.98 mm) smaller per copy of the minor allele [C] of the Asp358Ala variant. Change in AAA growth was -0.06 mm per year (-0.18 to 0.06) per copy of the minor allele; a result that was not statistically significant. Although all available worldwide data were used, the genetic analyses were not powered for an effect size as small as that observed. In 2 mouse models of AAA, selective blockage of the IL-6 trans-signaling pathway, but not combined blockage of both, the classical and trans-signaling pathways, was associated with improved survival ( P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our proof-of-principle data are compatible with the concept that IL-6 trans-signaling is relevant to AAA growth, encouraging larger-scale evaluation of this hypothesis.

Genomic atlas of the human plasma proteome.

Although plasma proteins have important roles in biological processes and are the direct targets of many drugs, the genetic factors that control inter-individual variation in plasma protein levels are not well understood. Here we characterize the genetic architecture of the human plasma proteome in healthy blood donors from the INTERVAL study. We identify 1,927 genetic associations with 1,478 proteins, a fourfold increase on existing knowledge, including trans associations for 1,104 proteins. To understand the consequences of perturbations in plasma protein levels, we apply an integrated approach that links genetic variation with biological pathway, disease, and drug databases. We show that protein quantitative trait loci overlap with gene expression quantitative trait loci, as well as with disease-associated loci, and find evidence that protein biomarkers have causal roles in disease using Mendelian randomization analysis. By linking genetic factors to diseases via specific proteins, our analyses highlight potential therapeutic targets, opportunities for matching existing drugs with new disease indications, and potential safety concerns for drugs under development.

Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption: combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12·5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5·6 years [5th-95th percentile 1·04-13·5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies. FINDINGS: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1·14, 95% CI, 1·10-1·17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1·06, 1·00-1·11), heart failure (1·09, 1·03-1·15), fatal hypertensive disease (1·24, 1·15-1·33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1·15, 1·03-1·28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was log-linearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0·94, 0·91-0·97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-≤100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-≤200 g per week, >200-≤350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively. INTERPRETATION: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, European Union Framework 7, and European Research Council.

Landmark Models for Optimizing the Use of Repeated Measurements of Risk Factors in Electronic Health Records to Predict Future Disease Risk.

The benefits of using electronic health records (EHRs) for disease risk screening and personalized health-care decisions are being increasingly recognized. Here we present a computationally feasible statistical approach with which to address the methodological challenges involved in utilizing historical repeat measures of multiple risk factors recorded in EHRs to systematically identify patients at high risk of future disease. The approach is principally based on a 2-stage dynamic landmark model. The first stage estimates current risk factor values from all available historical repeat risk factor measurements via landmark-age-specific multivariate linear mixed-effects models with correlated random intercepts, which account for sporadically recorded repeat measures, unobserved data, and measurement errors. The second stage predicts future disease risk from a sex-stratified Cox proportional hazards model, with estimated current risk factor values from the first stage. We exemplify these methods by developing and validating a dynamic 10-year cardiovascular disease risk prediction model using primary-care EHRs for age, diabetes status, hypertension treatment, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in 41,373 persons from 10 primary-care practices in England and Wales contributing to The Health Improvement Network (1997-2016). Using cross-validation, the model was well-calibrated (Brier score = 0.041, 95% confidence interval: 0.039, 0.042) and had good discrimination (C-index = 0.768, 95% confidence interval: 0.759, 0.777).

Lipoprotein(a) and incident type-2 diabetes: results from the prospective Bruneck study and a meta-analysis of published literature.

AIMS: We aimed to (1) assess the association between lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] concentration and incident type-2 diabetes in the Bruneck study, a prospective population-based study, and (2) combine findings with evidence from published studies in a literature-based meta-analysis. METHODS: We used Cox proportional hazards models to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for incident type-2 diabetes over 20 years of follow-up in 815 participants of the Bruneck study according to their long-term average Lp(a) concentration. For the meta-analysis, we searched Medline, Embase and Web of Science for relevant prospective cohort studies published up to October 2016. RESULTS: In the Bruneck study, there was a 12% higher risk of type-2 diabetes for a one standard deviation lower concentration of log Lp(a) (HR = 1.12 [95% CI 0.95-1.32]; P = 0.171), after adjustment for age, sex, alcohol consumption, body mass index, smoking status, socioeconomic status, physical activity, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, log high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and waist-hip ratio. In a meta-analysis involving four prospective cohorts with a total of 74,575 participants and 4514 incident events, the risk of type-2 diabetes was higher in the lowest two quintiles of Lp(a) concentrations (weighted mean Lp(a) = 3.3 and 7.0 mg/dL, respectively) compared to the highest quintile (62.9 mg/dL), with the highest risk of type-2 diabetes seen in quintile 1 (HR = 1.28 [1.14-1.43]; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The current available evidence from prospective studies suggests that there is an inverse association between Lp(a) concentration and risk of type-2 diabetes, with a higher risk of type-2 diabetes at low Lp(a) concentrations (approximately <7 mg/dL).

Tobacco smoking and all-cause mortality in a large Australian cohort study: findings from a mature epidemic with current low smoking prevalence.

BACKGROUND: The smoking epidemic in Australia is characterised by historic levels of prolonged smoking, heavy smoking, very high levels of long-term cessation, and low current smoking prevalence, with 13% of adults reporting that they smoked daily in 2013. Large-scale quantitative evidence on the relationship of tobacco smoking to mortality in Australia is not available despite the potential to provide independent international evidence about the contemporary risks of smoking. METHODS: This is a prospective study of 204,953 individuals aged ≥45 years sampled from the general population of New South Wales, Australia, who joined the 45 and Up Study from 2006-2009, with linked questionnaire, hospitalisation, and mortality data to mid-2012 and with no history of cancer (other than melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer), heart disease, stroke, or thrombosis. Hazard ratios (described here as relative risks, RRs) for all-cause mortality among current and past smokers compared to never-smokers were estimated, adjusting for age, education, income, region of residence, alcohol, and body mass index. RESULTS: Overall, 5,593 deaths accrued during follow-up (874,120 person-years; mean: 4.26 years); 7.7% of participants were current smokers and 34.1% past smokers at baseline. Compared to never-smokers, the adjusted RR (95% CI) of mortality was 2.96 (2.69-3.25) in current smokers and was similar in men (2.82 (2.49-3.19)) and women (3.08 (2.63-3.60)) and according to birth cohort. Mortality RRs increased with increasing smoking intensity, with around two- and four-fold increases in mortality in current smokers of ≤14 (mean 10/day) and ≥25 cigarettes/day, respectively, compared to never-smokers. Among past smokers, mortality diminished gradually with increasing time since cessation and did not differ significantly from never-smokers in those quitting prior to age 45. Current smokers are estimated to die an average of 10 years earlier than non-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: In Australia, up to two-thirds of deaths in current smokers can be attributed to smoking. Cessation reduces mortality compared with continuing to smoke, with cessation earlier in life resulting in greater reductions.

The relationship between body mass index and hospitalisation rates, days in hospital and costs: findings from a large prospective linked data study.

BACKGROUND: Internationally there is limited empirical evidence on the impact of overweight and obesity on health service use and costs. We estimate the burden of hospitalisation-admissions, days and costs-associated with above-normal BMI. METHODS: Population-based prospective cohort study involving 224,254 adults aged ≥45y in Australia (45 and Up Study). Baseline questionnaire data (2006-2009) were linked to hospitalisation and death records (median follow-up 3.42y) and hospital cost data. The relationships between BMI and hospital admissions and days were modelled using zero-inflated negative binomial regression; generalised gamma models were used to model costs. Analyses were stratified by sex and age (45-64, 65-79, ≥80y), and adjusted for age, area of residence, education, income, smoking, alcohol-intake and private health insurance status. Population attributable fractions were also calculated. RESULTS: There were 459,346 admissions (0.55/person-year) and 1,483,523 hospital days (1.76/person-year) during follow-up. For ages 45-64y and 65-79y, rates of admissions, days and costs increased progressively with increments of above-normal BMI. Compared to BMI 22.5-<25kg/m2, rates of admissions and days were 1.64-2.54 times higher for BMI 40-50kg/m2; costs were 1.14-1.24 times higher for BMI 27.5-<30kg/m2, rising to 1.77-2.15 times for BMI 40-50kg/m2. The BMI-hospitalisation relationship was less clear for ≥80y. We estimated that among Australians 45-79y, around 1 in every 8 admissions are attributable to overweight and obesity (2% to overweight, 11% to obesity), as are 1 in every 6 days in hospital (2%, 16%) and 1 in every 6 dollars spent on hospitalisation (3%, 14%). CONCLUSIONS: The dose-response relationship between BMI and hospital use and costs in mid-age and older Australians in the above-normal BMI range suggests even small downward shifts in BMI among these people could result in considerable reductions in their annual health care costs; whether this would result in long-term savings to the health care system is not known from this study.

Income-related inequalities in chronic conditions, physical functioning and psychological distress among older people in Australia: cross-sectional findings from the 45 and up study.

BACKGROUND: The burden of chronic disease continues to rise as populations age. There is relatively little published on the socioeconomic distribution of this burden in older people. This study quantifies absolute and relative income-related inequalities in prevalence of chronic diseases, severe physical functioning limitation and high psychological distress in mid-age and older people in Australia. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of 208,450 participants in the 45 and Up Study, a population-based cohort of men and women aged 45-106 years from New South Wales, Australia. Chronic conditions included self-reported heart disease, diabetes, Parkinson's disease, cancer and osteoarthritis; physical functioning limitation (severe/not) was measured using Medical Outcomes Study measures and psychological distress (high/not) using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale. For each outcome, prevalence was estimated in relation to annual household income (6 categories). Prevalence differences (PDs) and ratios (PRs) were generated, comparing the lowest income category (< $20,000) to the highest (≥ $70,000), using Poisson regression with robust standard errors, weighted for age, sex and region of residence. Analyses were stratified by age group (45-64, 65-79 and ≥ 80 years) and sex and adjusted for age and country of birth. RESULTS: With few exceptions, there were income gradients in the prevalence of chronic conditions among all age-sex groups, with prevalence decreasing with increasing income. Of the chronic diseases, PDs were highest for diabetes (ranging between 5.69% and 10.36% across age-sex groups) and in women, also for osteoarthritis (5.72% to 8.14%); PRs were highest for osteoarthritis in men aged 45-64 years (4.01), otherwise they were highest for diabetes (1.78 to 3.43). Inequalities were very high for both physical functioning limitation and psychological distress, particularly among those aged 45-64 (PDs between 18.67% and 29.23% and PRs between 4.63 and 16.51). Absolute and relative inequalities tended to decrease with age, but remained relatively high for diabetes and physical functioning in the elderly (≥ 80 years). CONCLUSIONS: Significant inequalities in the prevalence of chronic conditions, physical functioning and psychological distress persist into old age. The additional health burden placed on those who are already disadvantaged is likely to become an increasingly important issue in an ageing population.