Cost effectiveness analysis of a fixed dose combination pill for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease from an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to impart a large burden on the global population, especially in lower income countries where affordability limits the use of cardiovascular medicines. A fixed dose combination strategy of at least 2 blood pressure lowering medications and a statin with aspirin in a single pill has been shown to reduce the risk of incident CVD by 38% in primary prevention in a recent meta-analysis. We report the in-trial (median follow-up: 5 years) cost-effectiveness of a fixed dose combination (FDC) pill in different income groups based on data from that meta-analysis. Methods: Countries were categorized using World Bank economic groups: Lower Middle Income Countries (LMIC), Upper Middle Income Countries (UMIC) and High Income Countries (HIC). Country specific costs were obtained for hospitalized events, procedures, and non-study medications (2020 USD). FDC price was based on the cheapest equivalent substitute (CES) for each component. Findings: For the CES-FDC pill versus control the difference in cost was $346 (95% CI: $294-$398) per participant in Lower Middle Income Countries, $838 (95% CI: $781-$895) in Upper Middle Income Countries and $42 (95% CI: -$155 to $239) (cost-neutral) in High Income Countries. During the study period the CES-FDC pill was associated with incremental gain in quality-adjusted life years of 0.06 (95% CI: 0.04-0.08) resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $5767 (95% CI: 5735-$5799), $13,937 (95% CI: $13,893-$14,041) and $700 (95% CI: $662-$738) respectively. In subgroups analyses, the highest 10 years CVD risk subgroup had ICERs of $2033, $7322 and -$6000/QALY. Interpretation: A FDC pill produced at CES costs is cost-neutral in HIC. Governments of LMI and UMI countries should assess these results based on the ICER threshold accepted in their own country and own specific health care priorities but should consider prioritizing this strategy for patients with high 10 years CVD risk as a first step. Funding: Population Health Research Institute.

Tobacco use and risk of acute stroke in 32 countries in the INTERSTROKE study: a case-control study.

Background: Smoking is a major risk factor for the global burden of stroke. We have previously reported a global population attributable risk (PAR) of stroke of 12.4% associated with current smoking. In this study we aimed to explore the association of current tobacco use with different types of tobacco exposure and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure on the risk of stroke and stroke subtypes, and by regions and country income levels. Methods: The INTERSTROKE study is a case-control study of acute first stroke and was undertaken with 13,462 stroke cases and 13,488 controls recruited between January 11, 2007 and August 8, 2015 in 32 countries worldwide. Association of risk of tobacco use and ETS exposure were analysed with overall stroke, ischemic and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and with TOAST etiological stroke subtypes (large vessel, small vessel, cardioembolism, and undetermined). Findings: Current smoking was associated with an increased risk of all stroke (odds ratio [OR] 1.64, 95% CI 1.46-1.84), and had a stronger association with ischemic stroke (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.61-2.11) than ICH (OR 1.19 95% CI 1.00-1.41). The OR and PAR of stroke among current smokers varied significantly between regions and income levels with high income countries (HIC) having the highest odds (OR 3.02 95% CI 2.24-4.10) and PAR (18.6%, 15.1-22.8%). Among etiological subtypes of ischemic stroke, the strongest association of current smoking was seen for large vessel stroke (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.63-2.87) and undetermined cause (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.55-2.50). Both filtered (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.50-1.99) and non-filtered (OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.79-3.77) cigarettes were associated with stroke risk. ETS exposure increased the risk of stroke in a dose-dependent manner, exposure for more than 10 h per week increased risk for all stroke (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.69-2.27), ischemic stroke (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.59-2.24) and ICH (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.60-2.50). Interpretation: There are significant variations in the magnitude of risk and PAR of stroke according to the types of tobacco used, active and ETS exposure, and countries with different income levels. Specific strategies to discourage tobacco use by any form and to build a smoke free environment should be implemented to ease the global burden of stroke. Funding: The Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, The Health & Medical Care Committee of the Regional Executive Board, Region Västra Götaland, and through unrestricted grants from several pharmaceutical companies with major contributions from Astra Zeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada), Pfizer (Canada), MERCK, Sharp and Dohme, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, UK Chest, and UK Heart and Stroke.

Effects of a Polypill, Aspirin, and the Combination of Both on Cognitive and Functional Outcomes: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Vascular risk factors are associated with cognitive decline but studies addressing individual risk factors have not demonstrated an effect of risk factor management on the preservation of cognition. Few trials have examined the effect of vascular risk factor management on function. Objective: To determine if a polypill could reduce cognitive and functional decline in people with risk factors but without manifest cardiovascular disease. Design, Setting, and Participants: The International Polycap Study 3 (TIPS-3) was a 2 × 2 × 2 factorial randomized clinical trial. Hospital and community-based centers in 8 countries recruited and followed up participants between July 30, 2012, and September 30, 2020. A total of 5713 individuals were randomly assigned to treatment groups, and 2098 people 65 years or older at intermediate risk of cardiovascular disease completed a cognitive assessment and were included in the analyses. Interventions: Polypill (antihypertensives and a statin), aspirin, or a combination of both treatments. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cognitive and functional assessments completed at baseline, 2 years, and study end. The primary outcome was the effect of a polypill compared with placebo and a polypill plus aspirin compared with double placebo on the composite outcome of the proportion of participants in each group who experienced a substantive decrease (>1.5 SD change) in cognitive or functional abilities. Results: Of the 2389 study participants older than 65 years, a total of 2098 (88%; mean [SD] age, 70.1 [4.5] years; 1266 female individuals [60%]) completed the baseline and follow-up assessment. A total of 1796 participants (86%) had hypertension, and 680 participants (32%) had impaired fasting plasma glucose levels. Mean (SD) baseline systolic blood pressure was 146.1 (17.7) mm Hg, and mean (SD) low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level was 124.3 (40.7) mg/dL and decreased by 5.7 mm Hg and 24 mg/dL, respectively, among those assigned to the polypill group. During a 5-year follow-up, there were no significant differences between treatment groups in the number of participants who experienced substantive cognitive decline (356 assigned polypill, 328 assigned placebo) or dementia (2 assigned polypill, 4 assigned placebo). Functional decline was reduced during follow-up for those assigned to polypill compared with placebo (mean [SD] country-standardized adjusted follow-up Standard Assessment of Global Everyday Activities [SAGEA] scores, 0.06 [0.03] vs 0.15 [0.03]; P = .01) and polypill plus aspirin compared with double placebo (mean [SD] country-standardized adjusted follow-up SAGEA scores, 0.01 [0.04] vs 0.14 [0.04]; P = .01). Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial of patients 65 years or older with vascular risk factors, a polypill, with or without aspirin, was not associated with reduced cognitive outcomes but was associated with reduced functional decline.

The cost implications of a polypill for primary prevention in the TIPS-3 trial.

AIMS: The International Polycap Study 3 (TIPS-3) trial demonstrated that a polypill containing cholesterol- and multiple blood-pressure-lowering drugs reduces cardiovascular events by 20% compared with placebo in people without cardiovascular disease. The polypill plus aspirin led to a 31% relative risk reduction in cardiovascular disease events compared with double placebo. We report regional variations in costs and affordability of a polypill based on the TIPS-3 trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: Countries were categorized using World Bank economic groups: lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, and high-income countries. Country-specific costs were obtained for hospitalization events, procedures, and non-study medications (2019 US dollars). Polypill price was based on the cheapest equivalent substitute (CES) for each component. For the polypill vs. placebo, the difference in cost over the 4.6 years of the trial was $291 [95% confidence interval (CI): $243-339] per participant in lower-middle-income countries, $1068 (95% CI: $992-1144) in upper-middle-income countries, and $48 (95% CI: -$271 to $367) in high-income countries. Results were similar for the polypill plus aspirin vs. a double placebo. In both cases, the polypill was affordable in all groups using monthly household capacity to pay or a threshold of 4% of the gross national income per capita. CONCLUSION: The use of a polypill (CES) in TIPS-3 increases costs in lower-middle-income countries and upper-middle-income countries but is affordable in countries at various economic levels and is cost neutral (dominant) in high-income countries.

Fixed-dose combination therapies with and without aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In randomised controlled trials, fixed-dose combination treatments (or polypills) have been shown to reduce a composite of cardiovascular disease outcomes in primary prevention. However, whether or not aspirin should be included, effects on specific outcomes, and effects in key subgroups are unknown. METHODS: We did an individual participant data meta-analysis of large randomised controlled trials (each with ≥1000 participants and ≥2 years of follow-up) of a fixed-dose combination treatment strategy versus control in a primary cardiovascular disease prevention population. We included trials that evaluated a fixed-dose combination strategy of at least two blood pressure lowering agents plus a statin (with or without aspirin), compared with a control strategy (either placebo or usual care). The primary outcome was time to first occurrence of a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or arterial revascularisation. Additional outcomes included individual cardiovascular outcomes and death from any cause. Outcomes were also evaluated in groups stratified by the inclusion of aspirin in the fixed-dose treatment strategy, and effect sizes were estimated in prespecified subgroups based on risk factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to compare strategies. FINDINGS: Three large randomised trials were included in the analysis (TIPS-3, HOPE-3, and PolyIran), with a total of 18 162 participants. Mean age was 63·0 years (SD 7·1), and 9038 (49·8%) participants were female. Estimated 10-year cardiovascular disease risk for the population was 17·7% (8·7). During a median follow-up of 5 years, the primary outcome occurred in 276 (3·0%) participants in the fixed-dose combination strategy group compared with 445 (4·9%) in the control group (hazard ratio 0·62, 95% CI 0·53-0·73, p<0·0001). Reductions were also observed for the separate components of the primary outcome: myocardial infarction (0·52, 0·38-0·70), revascularisation (0·54, 0·36-0·80), stroke (0·59, 0·45-0·78), and cardiovascular death (0·65, 0·52-0·81). Significant reductions in the primary outcome and its components were observed in the analyses of fixed-dose combination strategies with and without aspirin, with greater reductions for strategies including aspirin. Treatment effects were similar at different lipid and blood pressure levels, and in the presence or absence of diabetes, smoking, or obesity. Gastrointestinal bleeding was uncommon but slightly more frequent in the fixed-dose combination strategy with aspirin group versus control (19 [0·4%] vs 11 [0·2%], p=0·15). The frequencies of haemorrhagic stroke (10 [0·2%] vs 15 [0·3%]), fatal bleeding (two [<0·1%] vs four [0·1%]), and peptic ulcer disease (32 [0·7%] vs 34 [0·8%]) were low and did not differ significantly between groups. Dizziness was more common with fixed-dose combination treatment (1060 [11·7%] vs 834 [9·2%], p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Fixed-dose combination treatment strategies substantially reduce cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularisation, and cardiovascular death in primary cardiovascular disease prevention. These benefits are consistent irrespective of cardiometabolic risk factors. FUNDING: Population Health Research Institute.

Similar cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes and established or high risk for coronary vascular disease treated with dulaglutide with and without baseline metformin.

OBJECTIVE: Recent European Guidelines for Diabetes, Prediabetes and Cardiovascular Diseases introduced a shift in managing patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk for or established cardiovascular (CV) disease by recommending GLP-1 receptor agonists and SGLT-2 inhibitors as initial glucose-lowering therapy. This is questioned since outcome trials of these drug classes had metformin as background therapy. In this post hoc analysis, the effect of dulaglutide on CV events was investigated according to the baseline metformin therapy by means of a subgroup analysis of the Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Patients in REWIND (n = 9901; women: 46.3%; mean age: 66.2 years) had type 2 diabetes and either a previous CV event (31%) or high CV risk (69%). They were randomized (1:1) to sc. dulaglutide (1.5 mg/weekly) or placebo in addition to standard of care. The primary outcome was the first of a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and death from cardiovascular or unknown causes. Key secondary outcomes included a microvascular composite endpoint, all-cause death, and heart failure. The effect of dulaglutide in patients with and without baseline metformin was evaluated by a Cox regression hazard model with baseline metformin, dulaglutide assignment, and their interaction as independent variables. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by a Cox regression model with adjustments for factors differing at baseline between people with vs. without metformin, identified using the backward selection. RESULTS: Compared to patients with metformin at baseline (n = 8037; 81%), those without metformin (n = 1864; 19%) were older and slightly less obese and had higher proportions of women, prior CV events, heart failure, and renal disease. The primary outcome occurred in 976 (12%) participants with baseline metformin and in 281 (15%) without. There was no significant difference in the effect of dulaglutide on the primary outcome in patients with vs. without metformin at baseline [HR 0.92 (CI 0.81-1.05) vs. 0.78 (CI 0.61-0.99); interaction P = 0.18]. Findings for key secondary outcomes were similar in patients with and without baseline metformin. CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that the cardioprotective effect of dulaglutide is unaffected by the baseline use of metformin therapy.

Polypill with or without Aspirin in Persons without Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: A polypill comprising statins, multiple blood-pressure-lowering drugs, and aspirin has been proposed to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Using a 2-by-2-by-2 factorial design, we randomly assigned participants without cardiovascular disease who had an elevated INTERHEART Risk Score to receive a polypill (containing 40 mg of simvastatin, 100 mg of atenolol, 25 mg of hydrochlorothiazide, and 10 mg of ramipril) or placebo daily, aspirin (75 mg) or placebo daily, and vitamin D or placebo monthly. We report here the outcomes for the polypill alone as compared with matching placebo, for aspirin alone as compared with matching placebo, and for the polypill plus aspirin as compared with double placebo. For the polypill-alone and polypill-plus-aspirin comparisons, the primary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, resuscitated cardiac arrest, heart failure, or revascularization. For the aspirin comparison, the primary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: A total of 5713 participants underwent randomization, and the mean follow-up was 4.6 years. The low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level was lower by approximately 19 mg per deciliter and systolic blood pressure was lower by approximately 5.8 mm Hg with the polypill and with combination therapy than with placebo. The primary outcome for the polypill comparison occurred in 126 participants (4.4%) in the polypill group and in 157 (5.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63 to 1.00). The primary outcome for the aspirin comparison occurred in 116 participants (4.1%) in the aspirin group and in 134 (4.7%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.67 to 1.10). The primary outcome for the polypill-plus-aspirin comparison occurred in 59 participants (4.1%) in the combined-treatment group and in 83 (5.8%) in the double-placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.50 to 0.97). The incidence of hypotension or dizziness was higher in groups that received the polypill than in their respective placebo groups. CONCLUSIONS: Combined treatment with a polypill plus aspirin led to a lower incidence of cardiovascular events than did placebo among participants without cardiovascular disease who were at intermediate cardiovascular risk. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and others; TIPS-3 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01646437.).

Total cardiovascular or fatal events in people with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular risk factors treated with dulaglutide in the REWIND trail: a post hoc analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Researching cardiovascular Events with a Weekly INcretin in Diabetes (REWIND) double blind randomized trial demonstrated that weekly subcutaneous dulaglutide 1.5 mg, a glucagon like peptide-1 receptor agonist, versus matched placebo reduced the first outcome of major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal stroke (594 versus 663 events) in 9901 persons with type 2 diabetes and either chronic cardiovascular disease or risk factors, and followed during 5.4 years. These findings were based on a time-to-first-event analysis and preclude relevant information on the burden of total major events occurring during the trial. This analysis reports on the total cardiovascular or fatal events in the REWIND participants METHODS: We compared the total incidence of MACE or non-cardiovascular deaths, and the total incidence of expanded MACE (MACE, unstable angina, heart failure or revascularization) or non-cardiovascular deaths between participants randomized to dulaglutide and those randomized to placebo. Incidences were expressed as number per 1000 person-years. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated using the conditional time gap and proportional means models. RESULTS: Participants had a mean age of 66.2 years, 46.3% were women and 31% had previous cardiovascular disease. During the trial there were 1972 MACE or non-cardiovascular deaths and 3673 expanded MACE or non-cardiovascular deaths. The incidence of total MACE or non-cardiovascular deaths in the dulaglutide and placebo groups was 35.8 and 40.3 per 1000 person-years, respectively [absolute reduction = 4.5 per 1000 person-years; conditional time gap HR 0.90 (95% CI, 0.82-0.98) p = 0.020, and proportional means HR 0.89 (95% CI, 0.80-0.98) p = 0.022]. The incidence of total expanded MACE or non-cardiovascular deaths in the dulaglutide and placebo groups was 67.1 and 74.7 per 1000 person-years, respectively [absolute reduction = 7.6 per 1000 person-years; conditional time gap HR 0.93 (95% CI, 0.87-0.99) p = 0.023, and proportional means HR 0.90 (95% CI, 0.82-0.99) p = 0.028]. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that weekly subcutaneous dulaglutide reduced total cardiovascular or fatal event burden in people with type 2 diabetes at moderate cardiovascular risk. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://www.clinicaltrials.gouv . Unique Identifier NCT01394952).

Cardiovascular risk factor reduction by community health workers in rural India: A cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to identify and test low-cost approaches for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction that can enable health systems to achieve such a strategy. OBJECTIVE: Community health workers (CHWs) are an integral part of health-care delivery system in lower income countries. Our aim was to assess impact of CHW based interventions in reducing CVD risk factors in rural households in India. METHODS: We performed an open-label cluster-randomized trial in 28 villages in 3 states of India with the household as a unit of randomization. Households with individuals at intermediate to high CVD risk were randomized to intervention and control groups. In the intervention group, trained CHWs delivered risk-reduction advice and monitored risk factors during 6 household visits over 12 months. Households in the non-intervention group received usual care. Primary outcomes were a reduction in systolic BP (SBP) and adherence to prescribed BP lowering drugs. RESULTS: We randomized 2312 households (3261 participants at intermediate or high risk) to intervention (1172 households) and control (1140 households). At baseline prevalence of tobacco use (48.5%) and hypertension (34.7%) were high. At 12 months, there was significant decline in SBP (mmHg) from baseline in both groups- controls 130.3 ±â€¯21 to 128.3 ±â€¯15; intervention 130.3 ±â€¯21 to 127.6 ±â€¯15 (P < .01 for before and after comparison) but there was no difference between the 2 groups at 12 months (P = .18). Adherence to antihypertensive drugs was greater in intervention vs control households (74.9% vs 61.4%, P = .001). CONCLUSION: A 12-month CHW-led intervention at household level improved adherence to prescribed drugs, but did not impact SBP. To be more impactful, a more comprehensive solution that addresses escalation and access to useful therapies is needed.

Dulaglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes (REWIND): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Three different glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists reduce cardiovascular outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk with high glycated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) concentrations. We assessed the effect of the GLP-1 receptor agonist dulaglutide on major adverse cardiovascular events when added to the existing antihyperglycaemic regimens of individuals with type 2 diabetes with and without previous cardiovascular disease and a wide range of glycaemic control. METHODS: This multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was done at 371 sites in 24 countries. Men and women aged at least 50 years with type 2 diabetes who had either a previous cardiovascular event or cardiovascular risk factors were randomly assigned (1:1) to either weekly subcutaneous injection of dulaglutide (1·5 mg) or placebo. Randomisation was done by a computer-generated random code with stratification by site. All investigators and participants were masked to treatment assignment. Participants were followed up at least every 6 months for incident cardiovascular and other serious clinical outcomes. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of the composite endpoint of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes (including unknown causes), which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01394952. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18, 2011, and Aug 14, 2013, 9901 participants (mean age 66·2 years [SD 6·5], median HbA1c 7·2% [IQR 6·6-8·1], 4589 [46·3%] women) were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive dulaglutide (n=4949) or placebo (n=4952). During a median follow-up of 5·4 years (IQR 5·1-5·9), the primary composite outcome occurred in 594 (12·0%) participants at an incidence rate of 2·4 per 100 person-years in the dulaglutide group and in 663 (13·4%) participants at an incidence rate of 2·7 per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·88, 95% CI 0·79-0·99; p=0·026). All-cause mortality did not differ between groups (536 [10·8%] in the dulaglutide group vs 592 [12·0%] in the placebo group; HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·80-1·01; p=0·067). 2347 (47·4%) participants assigned to dulaglutide reported a gastrointestinal adverse event during follow-up compared with 1687 (34·1%) participants assigned to placebo (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Dulaglutide could be considered for the management of glycaemic control in middle-aged and older people with type 2 diabetes with either previous cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular risk factors. FUNDING: Eli Lilly and Company.

Dulaglutide and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes: an exploratory analysis of the REWIND randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Two glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists reduced renal outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes at risk for cardiovascular disease. We assessed the long-term effect of the GLP-1 receptor agonist dulaglutide on renal outcomes in an exploratory analysis of the REWIND trial of the effect of dulaglutide on cardiovascular disease. METHODS: REWIND was a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial at 371 sites in 24 countries. Men and women aged at least 50 years with type 2 diabetes who had either a previous cardiovascular event or cardiovascular risk factors were randomly assigned (1:1) to either weekly subcutaneous injection of dulaglutide (1·5 mg) or placebo and followed up at least every 6 months for outcomes. Urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratios (UACRs) and estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) were estimated from urine and serum values measured in local laboratories every 12 months. The primary outcome (first occurrence of the composite endpoint of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes), secondary outcomes (including a composite microvascular outcome), and safety outcomes of this trial have been reported elsewhere. In this exploratory analysis, we investigate the renal component of the composite microvascular outcome, defined as the first occurrence of new macroalbuminuria (UACR >33·9 mg/mmol), a sustained decline in eGFR of 30% or more from baseline, or chronic renal replacement therapy. Analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01394952. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18, 2011, and Aug 14, 2013, 9901 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive dulaglutide (n=4949) or placebo (n=4952). At baseline, 791 (7·9%) had macroalbuminuria and mean eGFR was 76·9 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (SD 22·7). During a median follow-up of 5·4 years (IQR 5·1-5·9) comprising 51 820 person-years, the renal outcome developed in 848 (17·1%) participants at an incidence rate of 3·5 per 100 person-years in the dulaglutide group and in 970 (19·6%) participants at an incidence rate of 4·1 per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·85, 95% CI 0·77-0·93; p=0·0004). The clearest effect was for new macroalbuminuria (HR 0·77, 95% CI 0·68-0·87; p<0·0001), with HRs of 0·89 (0·78-1·01; p=0·066) for sustained decline in eGFR of 30% or more and 0·75 (0·39-1·44; p=0·39) for chronic renal replacement therapy. INTERPRETATION: Long-term use of dulaglutide was associated with reduced composite renal outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes. FUNDING: Eli Lilly and Company.

Impact of blood pressure lowering, cholesterol lowering and their combination in Asians and non-Asians in those without cardiovascular disease: an analysis of the HOPE 3 study.

BACKGROUND AND DESIGN: There are limited data on the effects of blood pressure and cholesterol lowering in Asians at intermediate risk and no cardiovascular disease. We report an analysis of the effects of blood pressure and cholesterol lowering in Asians enrolled in the Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation 3 (HOPE 3) trial. METHODS: We randomly assigned 6241 Asians and 6464 non-Asians at intermediate risk without cardiovascular disease to candesartan 16 mg/hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg or placebo and rosuvastatin 10 mg or placebo. The first co-primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular disease death, myocardial infarction and stroke. The second co-primary outcome additionally included heart failure, cardiac arrest and revascularisation. Median follow-up was 5.6 years. RESULTS: Reduction in systolic blood pressure was less among Asians (4.3 vs. 7.7 mmHg for non-Asians, P < 0.0001) mainly due to a lesser effect in Chinese (2.1 mmHg) than in other Asians (7.3 mmHg), reduction in the latter being similar to non-Asians. The effect on the composite outcomes was similar, with no significant benefits from blood pressure lowering for either Asians (Chinese or non-Chinese) or non-Asians. Rosuvastatin reduced low-density lipoprotein cholesterol to a lesser degree in Asians (0.49 mmol/L (-19.1 mg/dL) compared with non-Asians 0.95 mmol/L (-36.7 mg/dL), Pinteraction < 0.0004). Yet both groups had similar reductions in the two co-primary outcomes. There was no increase in permanent medication discontinuation due to muscle-related symptoms in either group. There was an excess in new diabetes in non-Asians (4.70% rosuvastatin, 3.52% placebo, P = 0.025) but not in Asians (3.02% rosuvastatin, 4.04% placebo, P = 0.0342), Pinteraction = 0021. CONCLUSIONS: Candesartan/hydrochlorothiazide had fewer effects in reducing blood pressure in Chinese and rosuvastatin reduced low-density lipoprotein cholesterol to a lesser extent in Asians compared with non-Asians. There was no overall reduction in clinical events with lowering blood pressure in either Asians or non-Asians, whereas there were clear and consistent benefits with lipid lowering in both. Despite extensive analyses, we have no obvious explanation for the observed findings. Future studies need to include larger numbers of individuals from different regions of the world to ensure that the results of trials are applicable globally.

The International Polycap Study-3 (TIPS-3): Design, baseline characteristics and challenges in conduct.

BACKGROUND: It is hypothesized that in individuals without clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD), but at increased CVD risk, a 50% to 60% reduction in CVD risk could be achieved using fixed dose combination (FDC) therapy (usually comprised of multiple blood-pressure agents and a statin [with or without aspirin]) in a single "polypill". However, the impact of a polypill in preventing clinical CV events has not been evaluated in a large randomized controlled trial. METHODS: TIPS-3 is a 2x2x2 factorial randomized controlled trial that will examine the effect of a FDC polypill on major CV outcomes in a primary prevention population. This study aims to determine whether the Polycap (comprised of atenolol, ramipril, hydrochlorothiazide, and a statin) reduces CV events in persons without a history of CVD, but who are at least at intermediate CVD risk. Additional interventions in the factorial design of the study will compare the effect of (1) aspirin versus placebo on CV events (and cancer), (2) vitamin D versus placebo on the risk of fractures, and (3) the combined effect of aspirin and the Polycap on CV events. RESULTS: The study has randomized 5713 participants across 9 countries. Mean age of the study population is 63.9 years, and 53% are female. Mean INTERHEART risk score is 16.8, which is consistent with a study population at intermediate CVD risk. CONCLUSION: Results of the TIP-3 study will be key to determining the appropriateness of FDC therapy as a strategy in the global prevention of CVD.

Design and baseline characteristics of participants in the Researching cardiovascular Events with a Weekly INcretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial on the cardiovascular effects of dulaglutide.

The aim was to determine the effects of dulaglutide, a synthetic once-weekly, injectable human glucagon-like peptide 1 analogue that lowers blood glucose, body weight, appetite and blood pressure, on cardiovascular outcomes. People with type 2 diabetes, aged ≥50 years, with glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) ≤9.5%, and either a previous cardiovascular event, evidence of cardiovascular disease or ≥2 cardiovascular risk factors were randomly allocated to a weekly subcutaneous injection of either dulaglutide (1.5 mg) or placebo and followed within the ongoing Researching cardiovascular Events with a Weekly INcretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial every 3 to 6 months. The primary cardiovascular outcome is the first occurrence of the composite of cardiovascular death or non-fatal myocardial infarction or non-fatal stroke. Secondary outcomes include each component of the primary composite cardiovascular outcome, a composite clinical microvascular outcome comprising retinal or renal disease, hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure requiring hospitalization or an urgent heart failure visit, and all-cause mortality. Follow-up will continue until the accrual of 1200 confirmed primary outcomes. Recruitment of 9901 participants (mean age 66 years, 46% women) occurred in 370 sites located in 24 countries over a period of 2 years. The mean duration of diabetes was 10 years, mean baseline HbA1c was 7.3%, and 31% had prior cardiovascular disease. The REWIND trial's international scope, high proportion of women, high proportion of people without prior cardiovascular disease and inclusion of participants whose mean baseline HbA1c was 7.3% suggests that its cardiovascular and safety findings will be directly relevant to the typical middle-aged patient seen in general practice throughout the world.

Global and regional effects of potentially modifiable risk factors associated with acute stroke in 32 countries (INTERSTROKE): a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. We sought to quantify the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for stroke in different regions of the world, and in key populations and primary pathological subtypes of stroke. METHODS: We completed a standardised international case-control study in 32 countries in Asia, America, Europe, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa. Cases were patients with acute first stroke (within 5 days of symptom onset and 72 h of hospital admission). Controls were hospital-based or community-based individuals with no history of stroke, and were matched with cases, recruited in a 1:1 ratio, for age and sex. All participants completed a clinical assessment and were requested to provide blood and urine samples. Odds ratios (OR) and their population attributable risks (PARs) were calculated, with 99% confidence intervals. FINDINGS: Between Jan 11, 2007, and Aug 8, 2015, 26 919 participants were recruited from 32 countries (13 447 cases [10 388 with ischaemic stroke and 3059 intracerebral haemorrhage] and 13 472 controls). Previous history of hypertension or blood pressure of 140/90 mm Hg or higher (OR 2·98, 99% CI 2·72-3·28; PAR 47·9%, 99% CI 45·1-50·6), regular physical activity (0·60, 0·52-0·70; 35·8%, 27·7-44·7), apolipoprotein (Apo)B/ApoA1 ratio (1·84, 1·65-2·06 for highest vs lowest tertile; 26·8%, 22·2-31·9 for top two tertiles vs lowest tertile), diet (0·60, 0·53-0·67 for highest vs lowest tertile of modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index [mAHEI]; 23·2%, 18·2-28·9 for lowest two tertiles vs highest tertile of mAHEI), waist-to-hip ratio (1·44, 1·27-1·64 for highest vs lowest tertile; 18·6%, 13·3-25·3 for top two tertiles vs lowest), psychosocial factors (2·20, 1·78-2·72; 17·4%, 13·1-22·6), current smoking (1·67, 1·49-1·87; 12·4%, 10·2-14·9), cardiac causes (3·17, 2·68-3·75; 9·1%, 8·0-10·2), alcohol consumption (2·09, 1·64-2·67 for high or heavy episodic intake vs never or former drinker; 5·8%, 3·4-9·7 for current alcohol drinker vs never or former drinker), and diabetes mellitus (1·16, 1·05-1·30; 3·9%, 1·9-7·6) were associated with all stroke. Collectively, these risk factors accounted for 90·7% of the PAR for all stroke worldwide (91·5% for ischaemic stroke, 87·1% for intracerebral haemorrhage), and were consistent across regions (ranging from 82·7% in Africa to 97·4% in southeast Asia), sex (90·6% in men and in women), and age groups (92·2% in patients aged ≤55 years, 90·0% in patients aged >55 years). We observed regional variations in the importance of individual risk factors, which were related to variations in the magnitude of ORs (rather than direction, which we observed for diet) and differences in prevalence of risk factors among regions. Hypertension was more associated with intracerebral haemorrhage than with ischaemic stroke, whereas current smoking, diabetes, apolipoproteins, and cardiac causes were more associated with ischaemic stroke (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Ten potentially modifiable risk factors are collectively associated with about 90% of the PAR of stroke in each major region of the world, among ethnic groups, in men and women, and in all ages. However, we found important regional variations in the relative importance of most individual risk factors for stroke, which could contribute to worldwide variations in frequency and case-mix of stroke. Our findings support developing both global and region-specific programmes to prevent stroke. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Health Research Board Ireland, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, The Health & Medical Care Committee of the Regional Executive Board, Region Västra Götaland (Sweden), AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada), Pfizer (Canada), MSD, Chest, Heart and Stroke Scotland, and The Stroke Association, with support from The UK Stroke Research Network.

Cholesterol Lowering in Intermediate-Risk Persons without Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Previous trials have shown that the use of statins to lower cholesterol reduces the risk of cardiovascular events among persons without cardiovascular disease. Those trials have involved persons with elevated lipid levels or inflammatory markers and involved mainly white persons. It is unclear whether the benefits of statins can be extended to an intermediate-risk, ethnically diverse population without cardiovascular disease. METHODS: In one comparison from a 2-by-2 factorial trial, we randomly assigned 12,705 participants in 21 countries who did not have cardiovascular disease and were at intermediate risk to receive rosuvastatin at a dose of 10 mg per day or placebo. The first coprimary outcome was the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke, and the second coprimary outcome additionally included revascularization, heart failure, and resuscitated cardiac arrest. The median follow-up was 5.6 years. RESULTS: The overall mean low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level was 26.5% lower in the rosuvastatin group than in the placebo group. The first coprimary outcome occurred in 235 participants (3.7%) in the rosuvastatin group and in 304 participants (4.8%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64 to 0.91; P=0.002). The results for the second coprimary outcome were consistent with the results for the first (occurring in 277 participants [4.4%] in the rosuvastatin group and in 363 participants [5.7%] in the placebo group; hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.88; P<0.001). The results were also consistent in subgroups defined according to cardiovascular risk at baseline, lipid level, C-reactive protein level, blood pressure, and race or ethnic group. In the rosuvastatin group, there was no excess of diabetes or cancers, but there was an excess of cataract surgery (in 3.8% of the participants, vs. 3.1% in the placebo group; P=0.02) and muscle symptoms (in 5.8% of the participants, vs. 4.7% in the placebo group; P=0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with rosuvastatin at a dose of 10 mg per day resulted in a significantly lower risk of cardiovascular events than placebo in an intermediate-risk, ethnically diverse population without cardiovascular disease. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and AstraZeneca; HOPE-3 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00468923.).

Community health worker-based intervention for adherence to drugs and lifestyle change after acute coronary syndrome: a multicentre, open, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to drugs and healthy lifestyles is low after acute coronary syndrome. We assessed whether trained community health workers could improve adherence to drugs, lifestyle changes, and clinical risk markers in patients with acute coronary syndrome in India. METHODS: In this study done at 14 hospitals in India we randomly assigned (1:1) patients with acute coronary syndrome 1 or 2 days before discharge from hospital to a community health worker-based intervention group or a standard care group. Patients were randomly assigned with a telephone randomisation service. In the intervention group, during four in-hospital and two home visits, community health workers used unstructured discussions, visual methods, and patient diaries to educate patients on healthy lifestyle and drugs, and measures to enhance adherence. The primary outcome was adherence to proven secondary prevention drugs (antiplatelet drugs, ß blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers, and statins) estimated using a Composite Medication Adherence Scale at 1 year. The secondary outcomes were difference in lifestyle factors (diet, exercise, and tobacco and alcohol use), and clinical risk markers (blood pressure, bodyweight, BMI, heart rate, and lipids). All analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the Clinical Trial Registry of India, number REF/2013/03/004737, and ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01207700. RESULTS: Between Aug 23, 2011, and June 25, 2012, 806 participants were randomly assigned (405 to a community health worker-based intervention group and 401 to a standard care group). At 1 year, 40 patients had died and 15 had discontinued or been lost to follow-up, so 750 (93%) were included in the analyses (375 in each group). Secondary prevention drugs prescribed at discharge were 98% (786/803) for any antiplatelet drug, 79% (638/803) for dual antiplatelet drugs, 69% (555/803) for ß blockers, 69% (552/803) for angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers, and 95% (762/803) for statins. At one year, overall adherence (≥80%) to prescribed evidence-based drugs was higher in the intervention group than in the control group (97% vs 92%, odds ratio [OR] 2·62, 95% CI 1·32-5·19; p=0·006). For individual drugs, we recorded significant differences for angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (97% [233/240] in the intervention group vs 93% [223/240] in the control group; p=0·036) and statins (97% [346/356] vs 93% [321/345]; p=0·011). The intervention group had significantly greater adherence to smoking cessation (85% [110/129] vs 52% [71/138], OR 5·46, 95% CI 3·03-9·86; p<0·0001), regular physical activity (89% [333/375] vs 60% [226/375], OR 5·23, 95% CI 3·57-7·66; p<0·0001), and healthy diet (score 5·0 vs 3·0, OR 2·47, 95% CI 1·88-3·25; p<0·0001). More patients in the intervention group had stopped alcohol use at 1 year (87% [64/74] vs 46% [46/67], OR 2·92, 95% CI 1·26-6·79; p =0·010). At 1 year, the mean systolic blood pressure (124·4 mm Hg [SD 13·5] vs 128·0 mm Hg [15·9]; p=0·002), weight (65·0 kg [11·0] vs 66·5 kg [11·5]; p<0·0001), cholesterol (157·0 [40·2] vs 166·9 [48·4]; p=0·184), LDL (81·0 [20·6] vs 87·3 [29·9]; p=0·191), HDL (42·0 [11·4] vs 38·2 [6·5]; p=0·042), and BMI (24·4 kg/m(2) [SD 3·7] vs 25·0 kg/m(2) [3·8]; p<0·0001) were lower in the intervention group than in the control group. However, we noted no significant difference in diastolic blood pressure and heart rate. INTERPRETATION: A community health worker-based personalised intervention strategy in patients with acute coronary syndrome improved adherence to evidence-based drugs and healthy lifestyles, and resulted in an improvement in clinical risk markers. Integration of trained community health workers can improve secondary prevention in coronary artery disease. FUNDING: US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, and the UnitedHealth group, USA.

Prevalence, treatments and outcomes of coronary artery disease in Indians: A systematic review.

AIM: To conduct a systematic review on the prevalence, risk factors, treatments and outcomes of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) in Indians. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a systematic review of studies in Indians with CAD from Jan 1969 to Oct 2012. Initial search yielded 3885 studies and after review 288 observational studies were included. The prevalence of CAD in urban areas was 2.5%-12.6% and in rural areas, 1.4%-4.6%. The prevalence of risk factors was: smoking (8.9-40.5%), hypertension (13.1-36.9%) and diabetes mellitus (0.2-24.0%). The median time to reach hospital after an MI was 360 min. In hospital rates of drug use were: antiplatelets 68%-97.9%, beta blockers 47.3%-65.8% and ACEIs 27.8-56.8%. CONCLUSIONS: In this first systematic review of CAD in India, prevalence of risk factors is high, treatments delayed and use of evidence based treatments variable.