Evaluation of Community-Based, Mobile HIV-Care, Peer-Delivered Linkage Case Management in Manzini Region, Eswatini.

The success of antiretroviral therapy (ART) requires continuous engagement in care and optimal levels of adherence to achieve sustained HIV viral suppression. We evaluated HIV-care cascade costs and outcomes of a community-based, mobile HIV-care, peer-delivered linkage case-management program (CommLink) implemented in Manzini region, Eswatini. Abstraction teams visited referral facilities during July 2019-April 2020 to locate, match, and abstract the clinical data of CommLink clients diagnosed between March 2016 and March 2018. An ingredients-based costing approach was used to assess economic costs associated with CommLink. The estimated total CommLink costs were $2 million. Personnel costs were the dominant component, followed by travel, commodities and supplies, and training. Costs per client tested positive were $499. Costs per client initiated on ART within 7, 30, and 90 days of diagnosis were $2114, $1634, and $1480, respectively. Costs per client initiated and retained on ART 6, 12, and 18 months after diagnosis were $2343, $2378, and $2462, respectively. CommLink outcomes and costs can help inform community-based HIV testing, linkage, and retention programs in other settings to strengthen effectiveness and improve efficiency.

Monitoring Emerging Human Immunodeficiency Virus Drug Resistance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Era of Dolutegravir.

Dolutegravir-based regimens are now standard of care for human immunodeficiency virus treatment for millions of people around sub-Saharan Africa. To ensure its continued efficacy, monitoring of emerging drug resistance that inform a treatment strategy among those failing is crucial. In this report, we outline the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief to leverage viral load infrastructure to implement effective drug resistance surveillance in the countries it supports.

Finding, treating and retaining persons with HIV in a high HIV prevalence and high treatment coverage country: Results from the Botswana Combination Prevention Project.

INTRODUCTION: The scale-up of Universal Test and Treat has resulted in reductions in HIV morbidity, mortality and incidence. However, healthcare system and personal challenges have impacted the levels of treatment coverage achieved. We implemented interventions to improve linkage to care, retention, viral load (VL) coverage and service delivery, and describe the HIV care cascade over the course of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP) study. METHODS: BCPP was designed to evaluate the impact of prevention interventions on HIV incidence in 30 communities in Botswana. We followed a longitudinal cohort of newly identified and known HIV-positive persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified through community-based testing activities through BCPP and referred with appointments to local HIV clinics in 15 intervention communities. Those who did not keep the first or follow-up appointments were tracked and traced through phone and home contacts. Improvements to service delivery models in the intervention clinics were also implemented. RESULTS: A total of 3,657 newly identified or HIV-positive persons not on ART were identified and referred to their local HIV clinic; 90% (3,282/3,657) linked to care and of those, 93% (3,066/3,282) initiated treatment. Near the end of the study, 221 persons remained >90 days late for appointments or missing. Tracing efforts identified 54/3,066 (2%) persons who initiated treatment but died, and 106/3,066 (3%) persons were located and returned to treatment. At study end, 61/3,066 (2%) persons remained missing and were never reached. Overall, 2,951 (98%) persons living with HIV (PLHIV) who initiated treatment were still alive, retained in care and still receiving ART out of the 3,001 persons alive at the end of the study. Of those on ART, 2,854 (97%) had current VL results and 2,784 (98%) of those were virally suppressed at study end. CONCLUSIONS: This study achieved high rates of linkage, treatment initiation, retention and VL coverage and suppression in a cohort of newly identified and known PLHIV not on ART. Tracking and tracing interventions effectively identified those persons who needed more resource intensive follow-up. The interventions implemented to improve service delivery and data quality may have also contributed to high linkage and retention rates. Clinical trial number: NCT01965470.

High Coverage of Antiretroviral Treatment With Annual Home-Based HIV Testing, Follow-up Linkage Services, and Implementation of Test and Start: Findings From the Chókwè Health Demographic Surveillance System, Mozambique, 2014-2019.

BACKGROUND: Early antiretroviral therapy (ART) is necessary for HIV epidemic control and depends on early diagnosis and successful linkage to care. Since 2014, annual household-based HIV testing and counseling and linkage services have been provided through the Chókwè Health and Demographic Surveillance System for residents testing HIV positive in this high HIV-burden district. METHODS: District-wide Test and Start [T&S, ART for all people living with HIV (PLHIV)] began in August 2016, supported by systematic interventions to improve linkage to care and treatment. Annual rounds (R) of random household surveys were conducted to assess trends in population prevalence of ART use and viral load suppression (<1000 viral RNA copies/mL). RESULTS: Between R1 (April 2014-April 2015) and R5 (April 2018-Mar 2019), 46,090 (67.2%) of 68,620 residents aged 15-59 years were tested for HIV at home at least once, and 3711 were newly diagnosed with HIV and provided linkage services. Population prevalence of current ART use among PLHIV increased from 65.0% to 87.5% between R1 and R5. ART population prevalence was lowest among men aged 25-34 years (67.8%) and women aged 15-24 (78.0%), and highest among women aged 35-44 years (93.6%) and 45-59 years (93.7%) in R5. Viral load suppression prevalence increased among all PLHIV aged 15-59 years from 52.0% in R1 to 78.3% in R5. DISCUSSION: Between 2014 and 2019, Chókwè Health and Demographic Surveillance System residents surpassed the UNAIDS targets of ≥81% of PLHIV on ART and ≥73% virally suppressed. This achievement supports the combination of efforts from household-based HIV testing and counseling, support for linkage to care and treatment, and continued investments in T&S implementation.

Community-wide HIV testing, linkage case management, and defaulter tracing in Bukoba, Tanzania: pre-intervention and post-intervention, population-based survey evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Community randomised trials have had mixed success in implementing combination prevention strategies that diagnose 90% of people living with HIV, initiate and retain on antiretroviral therapy (ART) 90% of those diagnosed, and achieve viral load suppression in 90% of those on ART (90-90-90). The Bukoba Combination Prevention Evaluation (BCPE) aimed to achieve 90-90-90 in Bukoba Municipal Council, Tanzania, by scaling up new HIV testing, linkage, and retention interventions. METHOD: We did population-based, cross-sectional surveys before and after our community-wide intervention in Bukoba-a mixed urban and rural council of approximately 150 000 residents located on the western shore of Lake Victoria in Tanzania. BCPE interventions were implemented in 11 government-supported health-care facilities throughout Bukoba from Oct 1, 2014, to March 31, 2017, when national ART-eligibility guidelines expanded from CD4 counts of less than 350 cells per µL (Oct 1, 2014-Dec 31, 2015) and 500 or less cells per µL (Jan 1, 2016-Sept 30, 2016) to any CD4 cell count (test and treat, Oct 1, 2016-March 31, 2017). We used pre-intervention (Nov 4, 2013-Jan 25, 2014) and post-intervention (June 21, 2017-Sept 20, 2017) population-based household surveys to assess population prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection and ART coverage, and progress towards 90-90-90, among residents aged 18-49 years. FINDINGS: During the 2·5-year intervention, BCPE did 133 695 HIV tests, diagnosed and linked 3918 people living with HIV to HIV care at 11 Bukoba facilities, and returned to HIV care 604 patients who had stopped care. 4795 and 5067 residents aged 18-49 years participated in pre-intervention and post-intervention surveys. HIV prevalence before and after the intervention was similar: pre-intervention 8·9% (95% CI 7·5-10·4); post-intervention 8·4% (6·9-9·9). Prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection decreased from 4·7% to 2·0% (prevalence ratio 0·42, 95% CI 0·31-0·57), and current ART use among all people living with HIV increased from 32·2% to 70·9% (2·20, 1·82-2·66) overall, 23·0% to 62·1% among men (2·70, 1·84-3·96), and 16·7% to 64·4% among people aged 18-29 years (3·87, 2·54-5·89). Of 436 and 435 people living with HIV aged 18-49 years who participated in pre-intervention and post-intervention surveys, previous HIV diagnosis increased from 47·4% (41·3-53·4) to 76·2% (71·8-80·6), ART use among diagnosed people living with HIV increased from 68·0% (60·9-75·2) to 93·1% (90·2-96·0), and viral load suppression of those on ART increased from 88·7% (83·6-93·8) to 91·3% (88·6-94·1). INTERPRETATION: BCPE findings suggest scaling up recommended HIV testing, linkage, and retention interventions can help reduce prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection, increase ART use among all people living with HIV, and make substantial progress towards achieving 90-90-90 in a relatively short period. BCPE facility-based testing and linkage interventions are undergoing national scale up to help achieve 90-90-90 in Tanzania. FUNDING: US Presidents' Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

Population uptake of HIV testing, treatment, viral suppression, and male circumcision following a community-based intervention in Botswana (Ya Tsie/BCPP): a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: In settings with high HIV prevalence and treatment coverage, such as Botswana, it is unknown whether uptake of HIV prevention and treatment interventions can be increased further. We sought to determine whether a community-based intervention to identify and rapidly treat people living with HIV, and support male circumcision could increase population levels of HIV diagnosis, treatment, viral suppression, and male circumcision in Botswana. METHODS: The Ya Tsie Botswana Combination Prevention Project study was a pair-matched cluster-randomised trial done in 30 communities across Botswana done from Oct 30, 2013, to June 30, 2018. 15 communities were randomly assigned to receive HIV prevention and treatment interventions, including enhanced HIV testing, earlier antiretroviral therapy (ART), and strengthened male circumcision services, and 15 received standard of care. The first primary endpoint of HIV incidence has already been reported. In this Article, we report findings for the second primary endpoint of population uptake of HIV prevention services, as measured by proportion of people known to be HIV-positive or tested HIV-negative in the preceding 12 months; proportion of people living with HIV diagnosed and on ART; proportion of people living with HIV on ART with viral suppression; and proportion of HIV-negative men circumcised. A longitudinal cohort of residents aged 16-64 years from a random, approximately 20% sample of households across the 15 communities was enrolled to assess baseline uptake of study outcomes; we also administered an end-of-study survey to all residents not previously enrolled in the longitudinal cohort to provide study end coverage estimates. Differences in intervention uptake over time by randomisation group were tested via paired Student's t test. The study has been completed and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01965470). FINDINGS: In the six communities participating in the end-of-study survey, 2625 residents (n=1304 from standard-of-care communities, n=1321 from intervention communities) were enrolled into the 20% longitudinal cohort at baseline from Oct 30, 2013, to Nov 24, 2015. In the same communities, 10 791 (86%) of 12 489 eligible enumerated residents not previously enrolled in the longitudinal cohort participated in the end-of-study survey from March 30, 2017, to Feb 25, 2018 (5896 in intervention and 4895 in standard-of-care communities). At study end, in intervention communities, 1228 people living with HIV (91% of 1353) were on ART; 1166 people living with HIV (88% of 1321 with available viral load) were virally suppressed, and 673 HIV-negative men (40% of 1673) were circumcised in intervention communities. After accounting for baseline differences, at study end the proportion of people living with HIV who were diagnosed was significantly higher in intervention communities (absolute increase of 9% to 93%) compared with standard-of-care communities (absolute increase of 2% to 88%; prevalence ratio [PR] 1·08 [95% CI 1·02-1·14], p=0·032). Population levels of ART, viral suppression, and male circumcision increased from baseline in both groups, with greater increases in intervention communities (ART PR 1·12 [95% CI 1·07-1·17], p=0·018; viral suppression 1·13 [1·09-1·17], p=0·017; male circumcision 1·26 [1·17-1·35], p=0·029). INTERPRETATION: It is possible to achieve very high population levels of HIV testing and treatment in a high-prevalence setting. Maintaining these coverage levels over the next decade could substantially reduce HIV transmission and potentially eliminate the epidemic in these areas. FUNDING: US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Effect of tuberculosis screening and retention interventions on early antiretroviral therapy mortality in Botswana: a stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) remains the most common cause of HIV-related mortality. Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is being rolled out globally to improve TB diagnostic capacity. However, previous Xpert impact trials have reported that health system weaknesses blunted impact of this improved diagnostic tool. During phased Xpert rollout in Botswana, we evaluated the impact of a package of interventions comprising (1) additional support for intensified TB case finding (ICF), (2) active tracing for patients missing clinic appointments to support retention, and (3) Xpert replacing sputum-smear microscopy, on early (6-month) antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality. METHODS: At 22 clinics, ART enrollees > 12 years old were eligible for inclusion in three phases: a retrospective standard of care (SOC), prospective enhanced care (EC), and prospective EC plus Xpert (EC+X) phase. EC and EC+X phases were implemented as a stepped-wedge trial. Participants in the EC phase received SOC plus components 1 (strengthened ICF) and 2 (active tracing) of the intervention package, and participants in the EC+X phase received SOC plus all three intervention package components. Primary and secondary objectives were to compare all-cause 6-month ART mortality between SOC and EC+X and between EC and EC+X phases, respectively. We used adjusted analyses, appropriate for study design, to control for baseline differences in individual-level factors and intra-facility correlation. RESULTS: We enrolled 14,963 eligible patients: 8980 in SOC, 1768 in EC, and 4215 in EC+X phases. Median age of ART enrollees was 35 and 64% were female. Median CD4 cell count was lower in SOC than subsequent phases (184/µL in SOC, 246/µL in EC, and 241/µL in EC+X). By 6 months of ART, 461 (5.3%) of SOC, 54 (3.2%) of EC, and 121 (3.0%) of EC+X enrollees had died. Compared with SOC, 6-month mortality was lower in the EC+X phase (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.97, p = 0.029). Compared with EC enrollees, 6-month mortality was similar among EC+X enrollees. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to strengthen ICF and retention were associated with lower early ART mortality. This new evidence highlights the need to strengthen ICF and retention in many similar settings. Similar to other trials, no additional mortality benefit of replacing sputum-smear microscopy with Xpert was observed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospectively registered: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02538952).

Tuberculosis treatment outcomes among people living with HIV diagnosed using Xpert MTB/RIF versus sputum-smear microscopy in Botswana: a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Xpert® MTB/RIF (Xpert) has high sensitivity for diagnosing tuberculosis (TB) compared to sputum-smear microscopy (smear) and can reduce time-to-diagnosis, time-to-treatment and potentially unfavorable patient-level treatment outcome. METHODS: People living with HIV (PLHIV) initiating antiretroviral therapy at 22 HIV clinics were enrolled and underwent systematic screening for TB (August 2012-November 2014). GeneXpert instruments were deployed following a stepped-wedge design at 13 centers from October 2012-June 2013. Treatment outcomes classified as an unfavorable outcome (died, treatment failure or loss-to-follow-up) or favorable outcome (cured and treatment completed). To determine outcome, smear was performed at month 5 or 6. Empiric treatment was defined as initiating treatment without/before receiving TB-positive results. Adjusting for intra-facility correlation, we compared patient-level treatment outcomes between patients screened using smear (smear arm)- and Xpert-based algorithms (Xpert arm). RESULTS: Among 6041 patients enrolled (smear arm, 1816; Xpert arm, 4225), 256 (199 per 2985 and 57 per 1582 person-years of follow-up in Xpert and smear arms, respectively; adjusted incidence rate ratio, 9.07; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.70-17.48; p < 0.001) received TB diagnosis and were treated. TB treatment outcomes were available for 203 patients (79.3%; Xpert, 157; smear, 46). Unfavorable outcomes were reported for 21.7% (10/46) in the smear and 13.4% (21/157) in Xpert arm (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% CI: 0.75-2.26; p = 0.268). Compared to smear, in Xpert arm median days from sputum collection to TB treatment was 6 days (interquartile range [IQR] 2-17 versus 22 days [IQR] 3-51), p = 0.005; patients with available sputum test result had microbiologically confirmed TB in 59.0% (102/173) versus 41.9% (18/43), adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR], 2.00, 95% CI: 1.01-3.96, p = 0.048). In smear arm empiric treatment was 68.4% (39/57) versus 48.7% (97/199), aOR, 2.28, 95% CI: 1.24-4.20, p = 0.011), compared to Xpert arm. CONCLUSIONS: TB treatment outcomes were similar between the smear and Xpert arms. However, compared to the smear arm, more patients in the Xpert arm received a TB diagnosis, had a microbiologically confirmed TB, and had a shorter time-to-treatment, and had a lower empiric treatment. Further research is recommended to identify potential gaps in the Botswana health system and similar settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02538952. Retrospectively registered on 2 September 2015.

Universal Testing, Expanded Treatment, and Incidence of HIV Infection in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: The feasibility of reducing the population-level incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection by increasing community coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and male circumcision is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a pair-matched, community-randomized trial in 30 rural or periurban communities in Botswana from 2013 to 2018. Participants in 15 villages in the intervention group received HIV testing and counseling, linkage to care, ART (started at a higher CD4 count than in standard care), and increased access to male circumcision services. The standard-care group also consisted of 15 villages. Universal ART became available in both groups in mid-2016. We enrolled a random sample of participants from approximately 20% of households in each community and measured the incidence of HIV infection through testing performed approximately once per year. The prespecified primary analysis was a permutation test of HIV incidence ratios. Pair-stratified Cox models were used to calculate 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Of 12,610 enrollees (81% of eligible household members), 29% were HIV-positive. Of the 8974 HIV-negative persons (4487 per group), 95% were retested for HIV infection over a median of 29 months. A total of 57 participants in the intervention group and 90 participants in the standard-care group acquired HIV infection (annualized HIV incidence, 0.59% and 0.92%, respectively). The unadjusted HIV incidence ratio in the intervention group as compared with the standard-care group was 0.69 (P = 0.09) by permutation test (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46 to 0.90 by pair-stratified Cox model). An end-of-trial survey in six communities (three per group) showed a significantly greater increase in the percentage of HIV-positive participants with an HIV-1 RNA level of 400 copies per milliliter or less in the intervention group (18 percentage points, from 70% to 88%) than in the standard-care group (8 percentage points, from 75% to 83%) (relative risk, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.16). The percentage of men who underwent circumcision increased by 10 percentage points in the intervention group and 2 percentage points in the standard-care group (relative risk, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Expanded HIV testing, linkage to care, and ART coverage were associated with increased population viral suppression. (Funded by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and others; Ya Tsie ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01965470.).

Methods, outcomes, and costs of a 2.5 year comprehensive facility-and community-based HIV testing intervention in Bukoba Municipal Council, Tanzania, 2014-2017.

To diagnose ≥90% HIV-infected residents (diagnostic coverage), the Bukoba Combination Prevention Evaluation (BCPE) implemented provider-initiated (PITC), home- (HBHTC), and venue-based (VBHTC) HIV testing and counseling (HTC) intervention in Bukoba Municipal Council, a mixed urban and rural lake zone community of 150,000 residents in Tanzania. This paper describes the methods, outcomes, and incremental costs of these HTC interventions. PITC was implemented in outpatient department clinics in all eight public and three faith-based health facilities. In clinics, lay counselors routinely screened and referred eligible patients for HIV testing conducted by HTC-dedicated healthcare workers. In all 14 wards, community teams offered HTC to eligible persons encountered at 31,293 home visits and at 79 male- and youth-frequented venues. HTC was recommended for persons who were not in HIV care or had not tested in the prior 90 days. BCPE conducted 133,695 HIV tests during the 2.5 year intervention (PITC: 88,813, 66%; HBHTC: 27,407, 21%; VBHTC: 17,475, 13%). Compared with other strategies, PITC conducted proportionally more tests among females (65%), and VBHTC conducted proportionally more tests among males (69%) and young-adults aged 15-24 years (42%). Of 5,550 (4.2% of all tests) HIV-positive tests, 4,143 (75%) clients were newly HIV diagnosed, including 1,583 males and 881 young adults aged 15-24 years. Of HIV tests conducted 3.7%, 1.8%, and 2.1% of PITC, HBHTC, and VBHTC clients, respectively, were newly HIV diagnosed; PITC accounted for 79% of all new diagnoses. Cost per test (per new diagnosis) was $4.55 ($123.66), $6.45 ($354.44), and $7.98 ($372.67) for PITC, HBHTC, and VBHTC, respectively. In a task-shifting analysis in which lay counselors replaced healthcare workers, estimated costs per test (per new diagnosis) would have been $3.06 ($83.15), $ 4.81 ($264.04), and $5.45 ($254.52), for PITC, HBHTC, and VBHTC, respectively. BCPE models reached different target groups, including men and young adults, two groups with consistently low coverage. Implementation of multiple models is likely necessary to achieve ≥90% diagnostic coverage.

Cost of Community-Based HIV Testing Activities to Reach Saturation in Botswana.

In Botswana, 85% of persons living with HIV are aware of their status. We performed an economic analysis of HIV testing activities implemented during intensive campaigns, in 11 communities, between April 2015 and March 2016, through the Botswana Combination Prevention Project. The total cost was $1,098,312, or $99,847 per community, with 60% attributable to home-based testing and 40% attributable to mobile testing. The cost per person tested was $44, and $671 per person testing positive (2017 USD). Labor costs comprised 64% of total costs. In areas of high HIV prevalence and treatment coverage, the cost of untargeted home-based testing may be inflated by the efforts required to assess the testing eligibility of clients who are HIV-positive and on ART. Home-based and mobile testing delivered though an intensive community-based campaign allowed the identification of HIV positive persons, who may not access health facilities, at a cost comparable to other studies.

Circumcision status at HIV infection is not associated with plasma viral load in men: analysis of specimens from a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Male circumcision provides men with approximately 60% protection from acquiring HIV infection via heterosexual sex, and has become a key component of HIV prevention efforts in sub-Saharan Africa. Possible mechanisms for this protection include removal of the inflammatory anaerobic sub-preputial environment and the high concentration of Langerhans cells on the inside of the foreskin, both believed to promote local vulnerability to HIV infection. In people who do acquire HIV, viral load is partially determined by infecting partner viral load, potentially mediated by size of infecting inoculum. By removing a portal for virion entry, prior male circumcision could decrease infecting inoculum and thus viral load in men who become HIV-infected, conferring the known associated benefits of slower progression to disease and decreased infectiousness. METHODS: We performed an as-treated analysis of plasma samples collected under a randomized controlled trial of male circumcision for HIV prevention, comparing men based on their circumcision status at the time of HIV acquisition, to determine whether circumcision is associated with lower viral load. Eligible men were seroconverters who had at least one plasma sample available drawn at least 6 months after infection, reported no potential exposures other than vaginal sex and, for those who were circumcised, were infected more than 6 weeks after circumcision, to eliminate the open wound as a confounder. Initial viral load testing indicated that quality of pre-2007 samples might have been compromised during storage and they were excluded, as were those with undetectable or unquantifiable results. Log viral loads were compared between groups using univariable and multivariable linear regression, adjusting for sample age and sexually transmitted infection diagnosis with 3.5 months of seroconversion, with a random effect for intra-individual clustering for samples from the same man. A per-protocol analysis was also performed. RESULTS: There were no viral load differences between men who were circumcised and uncircumcised at the time of HIV infection (means 4.00 and 4.03 log10 copies/mL respectively, p = .88) in any analysis. CONCLUSION: Circumcision status at the time of HIV infection does not affect viral load in men. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The original RCT which provided the samples was ClinicalTrials.gov trial NCT00059371 .

Design and analysis of group-randomized trials in cancer: A review of current practices.

The purpose of this paper is to summarize current practices for the design and analysis of group-randomized trials involving cancer-related risk factors or outcomes and to offer recommendations to improve future trials. We searched for group-randomized trials involving cancer-related risk factors or outcomes that were published or online in peer-reviewed journals in 2011-15. During 2016-17, in Bethesda MD, we reviewed 123 articles from 76 journals to characterize their design and their methods for sample size estimation and data analysis. Only 66 (53.7%) of the articles reported appropriate methods for sample size estimation. Only 63 (51.2%) reported exclusively appropriate methods for analysis. These findings suggest that many investigators do not adequately attend to the methodological challenges inherent in group-randomized trials. These practices can lead to underpowered studies, to an inflated type 1 error rate, and to inferences that mislead readers. Investigators should work with biostatisticians or other methodologists familiar with these issues. Funders and editors should ensure careful methodological review of applications and manuscripts. Reviewers should ensure that studies are properly planned and analyzed. These steps are needed to improve the rigor and reproducibility of group-randomized trials. The Office of Disease Prevention (ODP) at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) has taken several steps to address these issues. ODP offers an online course on the design and analysis of group-randomized trials. ODP is working to increase the number of methodologists who serve on grant review panels. ODP has developed standard language for the Application Guide and the Review Criteria to draw investigators' attention to these issues. Finally, ODP has created a new Research Methods Resources website to help investigators, reviewers, and NIH staff better understand these issues.

Association between male circumcision and women's biomedical health outcomes: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Male circumcision reduces men's risk of acquiring HIV and some sexually transmitted infections from heterosexual exposure, and is essential for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa. Studies have also investigated associations between male circumcision and risk of acquisition of HIV and sexually transmitted infections in women. We aimed to review all evidence on associations between male circumcision and women's health outcomes to benefit women's health programmes. METHODS: In this systematic review we searched for peer-reviewed and grey literature publications reporting associations between male circumcision and women's health outcomes up to April 11, 2016. All biomedical (not psychological or social) outcomes in all study types were included. Searches were not restricted by year of publication, or to sub-Saharan Africa. Publications without primary data and not in English were excluded. We extracted data and assessed evidence on each outcome as high, medium, or low consistency on the basis of agreement between publications; outcomes found in fewer than three publications were indeterminate consistency. FINDINGS: 60 publications were included in our assessment. High-consistency evidence was found for five outcomes, with male circumcision protecting against cervical cancer, cervical dysplasia, herpes simplex virus type 2, chlamydia, and syphilis. Medium-consistency evidence was found for male circumcision protecting against human papillomavirus and low-risk human papillomavirus. Although the evidence shows a protective association with HIV, it was categorised as low consistency, because one trial showed an increased risk to female partners of HIV-infected men resuming sex early after male circumcision. Seven outcomes including HIV had low-consistency evidence and six were indeterminate. INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of male circumcision in sub-Saharan Africa has public health implications for several outcomes in women. Evidence that female partners are at decreased risk of several diseases is highly consistent. Synergies between male circumcision and women's health programmes should be explored. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Jhpiego.

A Brief Screening Tool to Assess the Risk of Contracting HIV Infection Among Active Injection Drug Users.

OBJECTIVE: To incorporate preexposure prophylaxis and other biomedical or intensive behavioral interventions into the care of injection drug users (IDUs), health care providers need validated, rapid, risk screening tools for identifying persons at highest risk of incident HIV infection. METHODS: To develop and validate a brief screening tool for assessing the risk of contracting HIV (ARCH), we included behavioral and HIV test data from 1904 initially HIV-uninfected men and women enrolled and followed in the AIDS Linked to the Intravenous Experience prospective cohort study between 1988 and 2008. Using logistic regression analyses with generalized estimating equations, we identified significant predictors of incident HIV infection, then rescaled and summed their regression coefficients to create a risk score. RESULTS: The final logistic regression model included age, engagement in a methadone maintenance program, and a composite injection risk score obtained by counting the number of the following 5 behaviors reported during the past 6 months: injection of heroin, injection of cocaine, sharing a cooker, sharing needles, or visiting a shooting gallery. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.720; possible scores on the index ranged from 0 to 100 and a score 46 or greater had a sensitivity of 86.2% and a specificity of 42.5%, appropriate for a screening tool. DISCUSSION: We developed an easy to administer 7-question screening tool with a cutoff that is predictive of incident HIV infection in a large prospective cohort of IDUs in Baltimore. The ARCH-IDUs screening tool can be used to prioritize persons who are injecting illicit drugs for consideration of preexposure prophylaxis and other intensive HIV prevention efforts.

Development of a clinical screening index predictive of incident HIV infection among men who have sex with men in the United States.

BACKGROUND: To implement biomedical and other intensive HIV prevention interventions cost-effectively, busy care providers need validated, rapid, risk screening tools for identifying persons at highest risk of incident infection. METHODS: To develop and validate an index, we included behavioral and HIV test data from initially HIV-uninfected men who have sex with men who reported no injection drug use during semiannual interviews in the VaxGen VAX004 study and Project Explore HIV prevention trials. Using generalized estimating equations and logistic regression analyses, we identified significant predictors of incident HIV infection, then weighted and summed their regression coefficients to create a risk index score. RESULTS: The final logistic regression model included age, and the following behaviors reported during the past 6 months: total number of male sex partners, total number of HIV-positive male sex partners, number of times the participant had unprotected receptive anal sex with a male partner of any HIV status, number of times the participant had insertive anal sex with an HIV-positive male partner, whether the participant reported using poppers, and whether they reported using amphetamines. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74, possible scores on index range from 0 to 47 and a score ≥10 had as sensitivity of 84% and a specificity of 45%, levels appropriate for a screening tool. CONCLUSIONS: We developed an easily administered and scored 7-item screening index with a cutoff that is predictive of HIV seroconversion in 2 large prospective cohorts of US men who have sex with men. The index can be used to prioritize patients for intensive HIV prevention efforts (eg, preexposure prophylaxis).

Design and analysis of group-randomized trials in cancer: a review of current practices.

BACKGROUND: Previous reviews have identified problems in the design and analysis of group-randomized trials in a number of areas. Similar problems may exist in cancer research, but there have been no comprehensive reviews. METHODS: We searched Medline and PubMed for group-randomized trials focused on cancer prevention and control that were published between 2002 and 2006. We located and reviewed 75 articles to determine whether articles included evidence of taking group randomization into account in establishing the size of the trial, such as reporting the expected intraclass correlation, the group component of variance, or the variance inflation factor. We also examined the analytical approaches to determine their appropriateness. RESULTS: Only 18 (24%) of the 75 articles documented appropriate methods for sample size calculations. Only 34 (45%) limited their reports to analyses judged to be appropriate. Fully 26 (34%) failed to report any analyses that were judged to be appropriate. The most commonly used inappropriate analysis was an analysis at the individual level that ignored the groups altogether. Nine articles (12%) did not provide sufficient information. CONCLUSIONS: Many investigators who use group-randomized trials in cancer research do not adequately attend to the special design and analytic challenges associated with these trials. Failure to do so can lead to reporting type I errors as real effects, mislead investigators and policy-makers, and slow progress toward control and prevention of cancer. A collaborative effort by investigators, statisticians, and others will be required to ensure that group-randomized trials are planned and analyzed using appropriate methods so that the scientific community can have confidence in the published results.