Spatial transferability of an agent-based model to simulate Taenia solium control interventions.

BACKGROUND: Models can be used to study and predict the impact of interventions aimed at controlling the spread of infectious agents, such as Taenia solium, a zoonotic parasite whose larval stage causes epilepsy and economic loss in many rural areas of the developing nations. To enhance the credibility of model estimates, calibration against observed data is necessary. However, this process may lead to a paradoxical dependence of model parameters on location-specific data, thus limiting the model's geographic transferability. METHODS: In this study, we adopted a non-local model calibration approach to assess whether it can improve the spatial transferability of CystiAgent, our agent-based model of local-scale T. solium transmission. The calibration dataset for CystiAgent consisted of cross-sectional data on human taeniasis, pig cysticercosis and pig serology collected in eight villages in Northwest Peru. After calibration, the model was transferred to a second group of 21 destination villages in the same area without recalibrating its parameters. Model outputs were compared to pig serology data collected over a period of 2 years in the destination villages during a trial of T. solium control interventions, based on mass and spatially targeted human and pig treatments. RESULTS: Considering the uncertainties associated with empirical data, the model produced simulated pre-intervention pig seroprevalences that were successfully validated against data collected in 81% of destination villages. Furthermore, the model outputs were able to reproduce validated pig seroincidence values in 76% of destination villages when compared to the data obtained after the interventions. The results demonstrate that the CystiAgent model, when calibrated using a non-local approach, can be successfully transferred without requiring additional calibration. CONCLUSIONS: This feature allows the model to simulate both baseline pre-intervention transmission conditions and the outcomes of control interventions across villages that form geographically homogeneous regions, providing a basis for developing large-scale models representing T. solium transmission at a regional level.

Bioenergetic function is decreased in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of veterans with Gulf War Illness.

Gulf War Illness (GWI) is a major health problem for approximately 250,000 Gulf War (GW) veterans, but the etiology of GWI is unclear. We hypothesized that mitochondrial dysfunction is an important contributor to GWI, based on the similarity of some GWI symptoms to those occurring in some mitochondrial diseases; the plausibility that certain pollutants to which GW veterans were exposed affect mitochondria; mitochondrial effects observed in studies in laboratory models of GWI; and previous evidence of mitochondrial outcomes in studies in GW veterans. A primary role of mitochondria is generation of energy via oxidative phosphorylation. However, direct assessment of mitochondrial respiration, reflecting oxidative phosphorylation, has not been carried out in veterans with GWI. In this case-control observational study, we tested multiple measures of mitochondrial function and integrity in a cohort of 114 GW veterans, 80 with and 34 without GWI as assessed by the Kansas definition. In circulating white blood cells, we analyzed multiple measures of mitochondrial respiration and extracellular acidification, a proxy for non-aerobic energy generation; mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) copy number; mtDNA damage; and nuclear DNA damage. We also collected detailed survey data on demographics; deployment; self-reported exposure to pesticides, pyridostigmine bromide, and chemical and biological warfare agents; and current biometrics, health and activity levels. We observed a 9% increase in mtDNA content in blood in veterans with GWI, but did not detect differences in DNA damage. Basal and ATP-linked oxygen consumption were respectively 42% and 47% higher in veterans without GWI, after adjustment for mtDNA amount. We did not find evidence for a compensatory increase in anaerobic energy generation: extracellular acidification was also lower in GWI (12% lower at baseline). A subset of 27 and 26 veterans returned for second and third visits, allowing us to measure stability of mitochondrial parameters over time. mtDNA CN, mtDNA damage, ATP-linked OCR, and spare respiratory capacity were moderately replicable over time, with intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.43, 0.44, 0.50, and 0.57, respectively. Other measures showed higher visit-to-visit variability. Many measurements showed lower replicability over time among veterans with GWI compared to veterans without GWI. Finally, we found a strong association between recalled exposure to pesticides, pyridostigmine bromide, and chemical and biological warfare agents and GWI (p < 0.01, p < 0.01, and p < 0.0001, respectively). Our results demonstrate decreased mitochondrial respiratory function as well as decreased glycolytic activity, both of which are consistent with decreased energy availability, in peripheral blood mononuclear cells in veterans with GWI.

Risk of lead exposure from wild game consumption from cross-sectional studies in Madre de Dios, Peru.

Background: Studies have shown elevated blood lead levels (BLL) in residents of remote communities in the Amazon, yet sources of lead exposure are not fully understood, such as lead ammunition consumed in wild game. Methods: Data was collected during two cross-sectional studies that enrolled 307 individuals in 26 communities. Regression models with community random effects were used to evaluate risk factors for BLLs, including diet, water source, smoking, sex, age, and indigenous status. The All-Ages Lead Model (AALM) from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was used to estimate background and dose from wild game consumption. Findings: Indigenous status and wild game consumption were associated with increased BLLs. Indigenous participants had 2.52 µg/dL (95% CI: 1.95-3.24) higher BLLs compared to non-indigenous. Eating wild game was associated with a 1.41 µg/dL (95% CI: 1.20-1.70) increase in BLLs. Two or more portions per serving were associated with increased BLLs of 1.66 µg/dL (95% CI: 1.10-2.57), compared to smaller servings. Using the AALM, we estimate background lead exposures to be 20 µg/day with consumption of wild game contributing 500 µg/meal. Lastly, we found a strong association between BLLs and mercury exposure. Interpretation: Consumption of wild game hunted with lead ammunition may pose a common source of lead exposure in the Amazon. Communities that rely on wild game and wild fish may face a dual burden of exposure to lead and mercury, respectively.

Non-local validated parametrization of an agent-based model of local-scale Taenia solium transmission in North-West Peru.

The pork tapeworm, Taenia solium, is the cause of a preventable zoonotic disease, cysticercosis, affecting both pigs and humans. Continued endemic transmission of T. solium is a major contributor of epilepsy and other neurologic morbidity, and the source of important economic losses, in many rural areas of developing countries. Simulation modelling can play an important role in aiding the design and evaluation of strategies to control or even eliminate transmission of the parasite. In this paper, we present a new agent based model of local-scale T. solium transmission and a new, non-local, approach to the model calibration to fit model outputs to observed human taeniasis and pig cysticercosis prevalence simultaneously for several endemic villages. The model fully describes all relevant aspects of T. solium transmission, including the processes of pig and human infection, the spatial distribution of human and pig populations, the production of pork for human consumption, and the movement of humans and pigs in and out in several endemic villages of the northwest of Peru. Despite the high level of uncertainty associated with the empirical measurements of epidemiological data associated with T. solium, the non-local calibrated model parametrization reproduces the observed prevalences with an acceptable precision. It does so not only for the villages used to calibrate the model, but also for villages not included in the calibration process. This important finding demonstrates that the model, including its calibrated parametrization, can be successfully transferred within an endemic region. This will enable future studies to inform the design and optimization of T. solium control interventions in villages where the calibration may be prevented by the limited amount of empirical data, expanding the possible applications to a wider range of settings compared to previous models.

CystiHuman: A model of human neurocysticercosis.

INTRODUCTION: The Taenia solium tapeworm is responsible for cysticercosis, a neglected tropical disease presenting as larvae in the body of a host following taenia egg ingestion. Neurocysticercosis (NCC), the name of the disease when it affects the human central nervous system, is a major cause of epilepsy in developing countries, and can also cause intracranial hypertension, hydrocephalus and death. Simulation models can help identify the most cost-effective interventions before their implementation. Modelling NCC should enable the comparison of a broad range of interventions, from treatment of human taeniasis (presence of an adult taenia worm in the human intestine) to NCC mitigation. It also allows a focus on the actual impact of the disease, rather than using proxies as is the case for other models. METHODS: This agent-based model is the first model that simulates human NCC and associated pathologies. It uses the output of another model, CystiAgent, which simulates the evolution of pig cysticercosis and human taeniasis, adding human and cyst agents, including a model of cyst location and stage, human symptoms, and treatment. CystiHuman also accounts for delays in the appearance of NCC-related symptoms. It comprises three modules detailing cyst development, seizure probability and timing, and intracranial hypertension/hydrocephalus, respectively. It has been implemented in Java MASON and calibrated in three endemic villages in Peru, then applied to another village (Rica Playa) to compare simulation results with field data in that village. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Despite limitations in available field data, parameter values found through calibration are plausible and simulated outcomes in Rica Playa are close to actual values for NCC prevalence and the way it increases with age and cases with single lesions. Initial simulations further suggest that short-term interventions followed by a rapid increase in taeniasis prevalence back to original levels may have limited impacts on NCC prevalence.

Validation of a spatial agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission ("CystiAgent") against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern Peru.

BACKGROUND: The pork tapeworm (Taenia solium) is a parasitic helminth that imposes a major health and economic burden on poor rural populations around the world. As recognized by the World Health Organization, a key barrier for achieving control of T. solium is the lack of an accurate and validated simulation model with which to study transmission and evaluate available control and elimination strategies. CystiAgent is a spatially-explicit agent based model for T. solium that is unique among T. solium models in its ability to represent key spatial and environmental features of transmission and simulate spatially targeted interventions, such as ring strategy. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We validated CystiAgent against results from the Ring Strategy Trial (RST)-a large cluster-randomized trial conducted in northern Peru that evaluated six unique interventions for T. solium control in 23 villages. For the validation, each intervention strategy was replicated in CystiAgent, and the simulated prevalences of human taeniasis, porcine cysticercosis, and porcine seroincidence were compared against prevalence estimates from the trial. Results showed that CystiAgent produced declines in transmission in response to each of the six intervention strategies, but overestimated the effect of interventions in the majority of villages; simulated prevalences for human taenasis and porcine cysticercosis at the end of the trial were a median of 0.53 and 5.0 percentages points less than prevalence observed at the end of the trial, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The validation of CystiAgent represented an important step towards developing an accurate and reliable T. solium transmission model that can be deployed to fill critical gaps in our understanding of T. solium transmission and control. To improve model accuracy, future versions would benefit from improved data on pig immunity and resistance, field effectiveness of anti-helminthic treatment, and factors driving spatial clustering of T. solium infections including dispersion and contact with T. solium eggs in the environment.

Is There a Relationship Between the Concentration of Same-Sex Couples and Tobacco Retailer Density?

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use is markedly higher among lesbian, gay, and bisexual populations than heterosexuals. Higher density of tobacco retailers is found in neighborhoods with lower income and more racial/ethnic minorities. Same-sex couples tend to live in similar neighborhoods, but the association of this demographic with tobacco retailer density has not been examined. METHODS: For a national sample of 97 US counties, we calculated the number of tobacco retailers per 1000 persons and rates of same-sex couples per 1000 households in each census tract (n = 17 941). Using spatial regression, we examined the association of these variables in sex-stratified models, including neighborhood demographics and other environmental characteristics to examine confounding. RESULTS: Results from spatial regression show that higher rates of both female and male same-sex couples were associated with a higher density of tobacco retailers. However the magnitude of this association was small. For female couples, the association was not significant after controlling for area-level characteristics, such as percent black, percent Hispanic, median household income, the presence of interstate highways, and urbanicity, which are neighborhood correlates of higher tobacco retailer density. For male couples, the association persisted after control for these characteristics. CONCLUSION: Same-sex couples reside in areas with higher tobacco retailer density, and for men, this association was not explained by neighborhood confounders, such as racial/ethnic composition and income. While lesbian, gay, and bisexual disparities in tobacco use may be influenced by neighborhood environment, the magnitude of the association suggests other explanations of these disparities remain important areas of research.

Relationship Between Tobacco Retailers' Point-of-Sale Marketing and the Density of Same-Sex Couples, 97 U.S. Counties, 2012.

The reasons for higher rates of smoking among lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) people than among heterosexual people are not well known. Research on internal migration and neighborhood selection suggests that LGB people are more likely to live in neighborhoods where the tobacco industry has historically targeted their marketing efforts (lower income, more racial/ethnic diversity). We used multi-level models to assess the relationship between the rate of same-sex couples per 1000 coupled households and 2012 marketing characteristics of tobacco retailers (n = 2231) in 1696 census tracts in 97 U.S. counties. We found no evidence of tobacco marketing at retailers differing by same-sex couple rates in census tracts with the exception of three findings in the opposite direction of our hypotheses: a small, significant positive relationship for the rate of same-sex male couples and the price of Newport Green (mentholated) cigarettes. For male and female same-sex couples, we also found a small negative relationship between tobacco advertisements and same-sex household rate. Tobacco retailers' tobacco marketing characteristics do not differ substantially by the rate of same-sex couples in their neighborhood in ways that would promote LGB health disparities. Further work is needed to determine if these patterns are similar for non-partnered LGB people.

Peptide YY: a gut hormone associated with anorexia during infectious diarrhea in children.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of diarrhea on appetite among Peruvian children age 12 to 71 months and to assess whether elevated plasma levels of peptide YY, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, and interleukin (IL)-1beta contribute to anorexia in this population. STUDY DESIGN: A total of 46 Peruvian children with diarrhea and 46 healthy controls underwent an observed feeding trial that was repeated when cases were healthy. Blood samples were obtained from 30 cases and 30 controls at the first trial and from 30 cases at the second trial and assayed for peptide YY, TNF-alpha, and IL-1beta. RESULTS: In the cases, mean consumption was less when sick than when healthy. The mean plasma level of peptide YY was higher for cases than controls and higher for cases when sick than when healthy. TNF-alpha levels were higher in cases than controls at visit 1 and also higher in cases when sick than when healthy. There were no differences in IL-1beta levels between cases and controls or between cases when sick and healthy. Peptide YY levels in children with diarrhea correlated with the likelihood of them eating less when sick than when healthy. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated serum peptide YY may be a mechanism for anorexia in children with diarrhea.

Diagnosis of cystic echinococcosis, central Peruvian Highlands.

We evaluated prevalence of cystic echinococcosis (CE) in a central Peruvian Highland district by using 4 diagnostic methods: ultrasonography for 949 persons, radiography for 829, and 2 serologic tests for 929 (2 immunoblot formats using bovine hydatid cyst fluid [IBCF] and recombinant EpC1 glutathione S-transferase [rEpC1-GST] antigens). For the IBCF and rEpC1-GST testing, prevalence of liver and pulmonary CE was 4.7% and 1.1% and seropositivity was 8.9% and 19.7%, respectively. Frequency of seropositive results for IBCF and rEpC1-GST testing was 35.7% and 16.7% (all hepatic cysts), 47.1% and 29.4% (hepatic calcifications excluded), and 22.2% and 33.3% (lung cysts), respectively. Weak immune response against lung cysts, calcified cysts, small cysts, and cysts in sites other than lung and liver might explain the poor performance of the serodiagnostic tests. We confirm that CE is highly endemic to Peru and emphasize the limited performance of available serologic assays in the field.

Support for tobacco control policies among youth in North Carolina.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this research was to examine attitudes toward tobacco control policies among middle and high school students in North Carolina. Specifically, we report data on knowledge of the harmfulness of secondhand smoke and support for restaurant and school-based smoking restrictions. METHODS: The statewide North Carolina Youth Tobacco Survey was administered to a representative sample of 3,073 middle school and 3,261 high school students in the fall of 2003. The overall response rate for the middle and high school samples was 77.0% and 77.4%, respectively. Support for tobacco policies was analyzed by smoking status and by knowledge of the harmfulness of secondhand smoke RESULTS: The vast majority of respondents in the middle school (87.6%) and high school (91.6%) reported that secondhand smoke was "definitely" or probably" harmful. However, less than half of middle school (48.6%) and high school (40.2%) students responded that smoking should be banned in restaurants. Even among the select group of students who had never smoked and who believed secondhand smoke was harmful, support for such a ban was less than 60% at both school levels. CONCLUSIONS: Youth in North Carolina are aware of the health risks of secondhand smoke, but are not convinced of the need to restrict smoking in restaurants. These results point to the need for more youth-focused advocacy and education around smoking restrictions, both to reduce youth exposure to secondhand smoke and to solidify voter support for such protections once they reach adulthood.