Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Screening for Pancreatic Cancer Among High-Risk Populations.

PURPOSE: We evaluated the potential cost-effectiveness of combined magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) among populations at high risk for the disease. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model of the natural history of PDAC to estimate the lifetime health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of PDAC screening among populations with specific genetic risk factors for PDAC, including BRCA1 and BRCA2, PALB2, ATM, Lynch syndrome, TP53, CDKN2A, and STK11. For each high-risk population, we simulated 29 screening strategies, defined by starting age and frequency. Screening included MRI with follow-up EUS in a subset of patients. Costs of tests were based on Medicare reimbursement for MRI, EUS, fine-needle aspiration biopsy, and pancreatectomy. Cancer-related cost by stage of disease and phase of treatment was based on the literature. For each high-risk population, we performed an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis, assuming a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100,000 US dollars (USD) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: For men with relative risk (RR) 12.33 (CDKN2A) and RR 28 (STK11), annual screening was cost-effective, starting at age 55 and 40 years, respectively. For women, screening was only cost-effective for those with RR 28 (STK11), with annual screening starting at age 45 years. CONCLUSION: Combined MRI/EUS screening may be a cost-effective approach for the highest-risk populations (among mutations considered, those with RR >12). However, for those with moderate risk (RR, 5-12), screening would only be cost-effective at higher WTP thresholds (eg, $200K USD/QALY) or with once-only screening.

Ultrasound Surveillance of Small, Incidentally Detected Gallbladder Polyps: Projected Benefits by Sex, Age, and Comorbidity Level.

OBJECTIVE: Incidentally detected gallbladder polyps are commonly encountered when performing upper abdominal ultrasound. Our purpose was to estimate the life expectancy (LE) benefit of ultrasound-based gallbladder surveillance in patients with small (6-7 to <10 mm), incidentally detected gallbladder polyps, accounting for patient sex, age, and comorbidity level. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate hypothetical cohorts of women and men with small gallbladder polyps, with varying age (66-80 years) and comorbidity level (none, mild, moderate, severe). Drawing from current evidence, in the base case, we assumed no increased risk of gallbladder cancer in patients with small gallbladder polyps. To estimate maximal possible LE gains from surveillance, we assumed perfect cancer control consequent to 5 years of surveillance. We varied key assumptions including cancer risk and test performance characteristics in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Projected LE gains from surveillance were <3 days across most cohorts and scenarios evaluated. For 66- and 80-year-olds with no comorbidities, LE gains were 1.46 and 1.45 days, respectively, for women, and 0.67 and 0.75 days for men. With 10 years of surveillance, LE gains increased to 2.94 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities (men: 1.35 days). If we assumed a 10% increase in gallbladder cancer risk among individuals with polyps, LE gains increased slightly to 1.60 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities (men: 0.74 days). Results were sensitive to test performance and surgical mortality. DISCUSSION: Even under unrealistic, optimistic assumptions of cancer control, ultrasound surveillance of incidentally detected small gallbladder polyps provided limited benefit.

Genetic testing to guide screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: Results of a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: First-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have elevated PDAC risk, partially due to germline genetic variants. We evaluated the potential effectiveness of genetic testing to target MRI-based screening among FDRs. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model of PDAC, calibrated to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, to estimate the potential life expectancy (LE) gain of screening for each of the following groups of FDRs: individuals who test positive for each of eight variants associated with elevated PDAC risk (e.g., BRCA2, CDKN2A); individuals who test negative; and individuals who do not test. Screening was assumed to take place if LE gains were achievable. We simulated multiple screening approaches, defined by starting age and frequency. Sensitivity analysis evaluated changes in results given varying model assumptions. RESULTS: For women, 92% of mutation carriers had projected LE gains from screening for PDAC, if screening strategies (start age, frequency) were optimized. Among carriers, LE gains ranged from 0.1 days (ATM+ women screened once at age 70) to 510 days (STK11+ women screened annually from age 40). For men, LE gains were projected for all mutation carriers, ranging from 0.2 days (BRCA1+ men screened once at age 70) to 620 days (STK11+ men screened annually from age 40). For men and women who did not undergo genetic testing, or for whom testing showed no variant, screening yielded small LE benefit (0-2.1 days). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic testing of FDRs can inform targeted PDAC screening by identifying which FDRs may benefit.

Liquid Biopsy, Diagnostic Imaging, and Future Synergies.

Imaging plays an integral role in the initial diagnosis and longitudinal care of patients with cancer. Liquid biopsies, which most commonly involve genetic analysis of circulating free DNA, have emerged as important complementary tools in cancer care with the potential to interface with imaging at each step of the cancer care continuum. Here, the authors use non-small-cell lung cancer as a paradigm to elucidate factors driving the need for liquid biopsy in the spectrum of lung cancer care, demonstrate ways in which liquid biopsy has already changed standard clinical practice, and discuss anticipated synergies of liquid biopsy and imaging in screening and early detection and in monitoring of disease.

Managing Incidental Findings on Thoracic CT: Lung Findings. A White Paper of the ACR Incidental Findings Committee.

The ACR Incidental Findings Committee presents recommendations for managing incidentally detected lung findings on thoracic CT. The Chest Subcommittee is composed of thoracic radiologists who endorsed and developed the provided guidance. These recommendations represent a combination of current published evidence and expert opinion and were finalized by informal iterative consensus. The recommendations address commonly encountered incidental findings in the lungs and are not intended to be a comprehensive review of all pulmonary incidental findings. The goal is to improve the quality of care by providing guidance on management of incidentally detected thoracic findings.

Rethinking the Approach to Artificial Intelligence for Medical Image Analysis: The Case for Precision Diagnosis.

To date, widely generalizable artificial intelligence (AI) programs for medical image analysis have not been demonstrated, including for mammography. Rather than pursuing a strategy of collecting ever-larger databases in the attempt to build generalizable programs, we suggest three possible avenues for exploring a precision medicine or precision imaging approach. First, it is now technologically feasible to collect hundreds of thousands of multi-institutional cases along with other patient data, allowing stratification of patients into subpopulations that have similar characteristics in the manner discussed by the National Research Council in its white paper on precision medicine. A family of AI programs could be developed across different examination types that are matched to specific patient subpopulations. Such stratification can help address bias, including racial or ethnic bias, by allowing unbiased data aggregation for creation of subpopulations. Second, for common examinations, larger institutions may be able to collect enough of their own data to train AI programs that reflect disease prevalence and variety in their respective unique patient subpopulations. Third, high- and low-probability subpopulations can be identified by application of AI programs, thereby allowing their triage off the radiology work list. This would reduce radiologists' workloads, providing more time for interpretation of the remaining examinations. For high-volume procedures, investigators should come together to define reference standards, collect data, and compare the merits of pursuing generalizability versus a precision medicine subpopulation-based strategy.

Surveillance in Older Women With Incidental Ovarian Cysts: Maximal Projected Benefits by Age and Comorbidity Level.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to estimate effects on life expectancy (LE) of imaging-based ovarian surveillance after detection of incidental postmenopausal ovarian cysts, under different assumptions of patient age, comorbidity level, and cancer risk and detection. METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate LE benefits. Hypothetical cohorts of postmenopausal women with simple ovarian cysts were evaluated, with varied age (66-80 years) and comorbidity level (none, mild, moderate, severe). For each cohort, imaging "follow-up" (2 years) and "no-follow-up" strategies were compared. Consistent with current evidence, increased cancer risk in patients with cysts was not assumed; however, incident ovarian cancers could be detected during follow-up. To estimate theoretical maximal LE gains from follow-up, perfect ovarian cancer detection and treatment during follow-up were assumed. This and other key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Projected LE gains from follow-up were limited. For 66-, 70-, 75-, and 80-year-old women with no comorbidities, LE gains were 5.1, 5.1, 4.5, and 3.7 days; with severe comorbidities, they were 3.5, 3.2, 2.7, and 2.1 days. With sensitivity of 50% for cancer detection, they were 3.7 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities and 1.3 days for 80-year-old women with severe comorbidities. When cancer risk for women with cysts was assumed to be elevated (1.1 times average risk), LE gains increased only modestly (5.6 and 2.3 days for analogous cohorts). CONCLUSIONS: Even in the circumstance of perfect ovarian cancer detection and treatment, surveillance of postmenopausal women (≥66 years of age) with simple cysts affords limited benefits, particularly in women with advanced age and comorbidities.

ACR Appropriateness Criteria® Pretreatment Evaluation and Follow-Up of Endometrial Cancer.

To date, there is little consensus on the role of pelvic imaging in assessing local disease extent during initial staging in patients with endometrial carcinoma, with practices differing widely across centers. However, when pretreatment assessment of local tumor extent is indicated, MRI is the preferred imaging modality. Preoperative imaging of endometrial carcinoma can define the extent of disease and indicate the need for subspecialist referral in the presence of deep myometrial invasion, cervical extension, or suspected lymphadenopathy. If distant metastatic disease is clinically suspected, preoperative assessment with cross-sectional imaging or PET/CT may be performed. However, most patients with low-grade disease are at low risk of lymph node and distant metastases. Thus, this group may not require a routine pretreatment evaluation for distant metastases. Recurrence rates in patients with endometrial carcinoma are infrequent. Therefore, radiologic evaluation is typically used only to investigate suspicion of recurrent disease due to symptoms or physical examination and not for routine surveillance after treatment. The American College of Radiology Appropriateness Criteria are evidence-based guidelines for specific clinical conditions that are reviewed annually by a multidisciplinary expert panel. The guideline development and revision include an extensive analysis of current medical literature from peer reviewed journals and the application of well-established methodologies (RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation or GRADE) to rate the appropriateness of imaging and treatment procedures for specific clinical scenarios. In those instances where evidence is lacking or equivocal, expert opinion may supplement the available evidence to recommend imaging or treatment.

Diabetes, Weight Change, and Pancreatic Cancer Risk.

Importance: Pancreatic cancer is the third-leading cause of cancer death in the United States; however, few high-risk groups have been identified to facilitate early diagnosis strategies. Objective: To evaluate the association of diabetes duration and recent weight change with subsequent risk of pancreatic cancer in the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study obtained data from female participants in the Nurses' Health Study and male participants in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study, with repeated exposure assessments over 30 years. Incident cases of pancreatic cancer were identified from self-report or during follow-up of participant deaths. Deaths were ascertained through reports from the next of kin, the US Postal Service, or the National Death Index. Data collection was conducted from October 1, 2018, to December 31, 2018. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2019, to June 30, 2019. Exposures: Duration of physician-diagnosed diabetes and recent weight change. Main Outcome and Measures: Hazard ratios (HRs) for subsequent development of pancreatic cancer. Results: Of the 112 818 women (with a mean [SD] age of 59.4 [11.7] years) and 46 207 men (with a mean [SD] age of 64.7 [10.8] years) included in the analysis, 1116 incident cases of pancreatic cancers were identified. Compared with participants with no diabetes, those with recent-onset diabetes had an age-adjusted HR for pancreatic cancer of 2.97 (95% CI, 2.31-3.82) and those with long-standing diabetes had an age-adjusted HR of 2.16 (95% CI, 1.78-2.60). Compared with those with no weight loss, participants who reported a 1- to 4-lb weight loss had an age-adjusted HR for pancreatic cancer of 1.25 (95% CI, 1.03-1.52), those with a 5- to 8-lb weight loss had an age-adjusted HR of 1.33 (95% CI, 1.06-1.66), and those with more than an 8-lb weight loss had an age-adjusted HR of 1.92 (95% CI, 1.58-2.32). Participants with recent-onset diabetes accompanied by weight loss of 1 to 8 lb (91 incident cases per 100 000 person-years [95% CI, 55-151]; HR, 3.61 [95% CI, 2.14-6.10]) or more than 8 lb (164 incident cases per 100 000 person-years [95% CI, 114-238]; HR, 6.75 [95% CI, 4.55-10.00]) had a substantially increased risk for pancreatic cancer compared with those with neither exposure (16 incident cases per 100 000 person-years; 95% CI, 14-17). Incidence rates were even higher among participants with recent-onset diabetes and weight loss with a body mass index of less than 25 before weight loss (400 incident cases per 100 000 person-years) or whose weight loss was not intentional judging from increased physical activity or healthier dietary choices (334 incident cases per 100 000 person-years). Conclusions and Relevance: This study demonstrates that recent-onset diabetes accompanied by weight loss is associated with a substantially increased risk for developing pancreatic cancer. Older age, previous healthy weight, and no intentional weight loss further elevate this risk.

Genetic and Circulating Biomarker Data Improve Risk Prediction for Pancreatic Cancer in the General Population.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer is the third leading cause of cancer death in the United States, and 80% of patients present with advanced, incurable disease. Risk markers for pancreatic cancer have been characterized, but combined models are not used clinically to identify individuals at high risk for the disease. METHODS: Within a nested case-control study of 500 pancreatic cancer cases diagnosed after blood collection and 1,091 matched controls enrolled in four U.S. prospective cohorts, we characterized absolute risk models that included clinical factors (e.g., body mass index, history of diabetes), germline genetic polymorphisms, and circulating biomarkers. RESULTS: Model discrimination showed an area under ROC curve of 0.62 via cross-validation. Our final integrated model identified 3.7% of men and 2.6% of women who had at least 3 times greater than average risk in the ensuing 10 years. Individuals within the top risk percentile had a 4% risk of developing pancreatic cancer by age 80 years and 2% 10-year risk at age 70 years. CONCLUSIONS: Risk models that include established clinical, genetic, and circulating factors improved disease discrimination over models using clinical factors alone. IMPACT: Absolute risk models for pancreatic cancer may help identify individuals in the general population appropriate for disease interception.

Management of Incidental Adnexal Findings on CT and MRI: A White Paper of the ACR Incidental Findings Committee.

The ACR Incidental Findings Committee (IFC) presents recommendations for managing adnexal masses incidentally detected on CT and MRI. These recommendations represent an update of those provided in our previous JACR 2013 white paper. The Adnexal Subcommittee, which included six radiologists with subspecialty expertise in abdominal imaging or ultrasound and one gynecologist, developed this algorithm. The recommendations draw from published evidence and expert opinion and were finalized by iterative consensus. Algorithm branches successively categorize adnexal masses based on patient characteristics (eg, pre- versus postmenopausal) and imaging features. They terminate with a management recommendation. The algorithm addresses most, but not all, pathologies and clinical scenarios. Our goal is to improve quality of care by providing guidance on how to manage incidentally detected adnexal masses.

Management implications of fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance in untreated intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

PURPOSE: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is associated with a poor prognosis with surgical resection offering the best chance for long-term survival and potential cure. However, in up to 36% of patients who undergo surgery, more extensive disease is found at time of operation requiring cancellation of surgery. PET/MR is a novel hybrid technology that might improve local and whole-body staging in ICC patients, potentially influencing clinical management. This study was aimed to investigate the possible management implications of PET/MR, relative to conventional imaging, in patients affected by untreated intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. METHODS: Retrospective review of the clinicopathologic features of 37 patients with iCCC, who underwent PET/MR between September 2015 and August 2018, was performed to investigate the management implications that PET/MR had exerted on the affected patients, relative to conventional imaging. RESULTS: Of the 37 patients enrolled, median age 63.5 years, 20 (54%) were female. The same day PET/CT was performed in 26 patients. All patients were iCCC-treatment-naïve. Conventional imaging obtained as part of routine clinical care demonstrated early-stage resectable disease for 15 patients and advanced stage disease beyond the scope of surgical resection for 22. PET/MR modified the clinical management of 11/37 (29.7%) patients: for 5 patients (13.5%), the operation was cancelled due to identification of additional disease, while 4 "inoperable" patients (10.8%) underwent an operation. An additional 2 patients (5.4%) had a significant change in their operative plan based on PET/MR. CONCLUSIONS: When compared with standard imaging, PET/MR significantly influenced the treatment plan in 29.7% of patients with iCCC. TRIAL REGISTRATION: 2018P001334.

Pancreatic cancer treatment costs, including patient liability, by phase of care and treatment modality, 2000-2013.

OBJECTIVES: Our study provides phase-specific cost estimates for pancreatic cancer based on stage and treatment. We compare treatment costs between the different phases and within the stage and treatment modality subgroups. METHODS: Our cohort included 20,917 pancreatic cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database diagnosed between 2000 and 2011. We allocated costs into four phases of care-staging (or surgery), initial, continuing, and terminal- and calculated the total, cancer-attributable, and patient-liability costs in 2018 US dollars. We fit linear regression models using log transformation to determine whether costs were predicted by age and calendar year. RESULTS: Monthly cost estimates were high during the staging and surgery phases, decreased over the initial and continuing phases, and increased during the three-month terminal phase. Overall, the linear regression models showed that cancer-attributable costs either remained stable or increased by year, and either were unaffected by age or decreased with older age; continuing phase costs for stage II patients increased with age. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates demonstrate that pancreatic cancer costs can vary widely by stage and treatment received. These cost estimates can serve as an important baseline foundation to guide resource allocation for cancer care and research in the future.

ACR Appropriateness Criteria® Gestational Trophoblastic Disease.

Gestational trophoblastic disease (GTD), a rare complication of pregnancy, includes both benign and malignant forms, the latter collectively referred to as gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN). When metastatic, the lungs are the most common site of initial spread. Beta-human chorionic gonadotropin, elaborated to some extent by all forms of GTD, is useful in facilitating disease detection, diagnosis, monitoring treatment response, and follow-up. Imaging evaluation depends on whether GTD manifests in one of its benign forms or whether it has progressed to GTN. Transabdominal and transvaginal ultrasound with duplex Doppler evaluation of the pelvis are usually appropriate diagnostic procedures in either of these circumstances, and in posttreatment surveillance. The appropriateness of more extensive imaging remains dependent on a diagnosis of GTN and on other factors. The use of imaging to assess complications, typically hemorrhagic, should be guided by the location of clinical signs and symptoms. The American College of Radiology Appropriateness Criteria are evidence-based guidelines for specific clinical conditions that are reviewed annually by a multidisciplinary expert panel. The guideline development and revision include an extensive analysis of current medical literature from peer reviewed journals and the application of well-established methodologies (RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation or GRADE) to rate the appropriateness of imaging and treatment procedures for specific clinical scenarios. In those instances where evidence is lacking or equivocal, expert opinion may supplement the available evidence to recommend imaging or treatment.

Potential survival benefits from optimized chemotherapy implementation in advanced ovarian cancer: Projections from a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer is often diagnosed in advanced stages, when survival is poor. Treatment advances have been made, but are inconsistently implemented. Our purpose was to project the maximum life expectancy gains that could be achieved in women with stage IIIC epithelial ovarian cancer if the implementation of available chemotherapy regimens could be optimized. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model to estimate life expectancy benefits associated with "optimized" implementation of four post-operative chemotherapy options: standard intravenous chemotherapy; intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy; bevacizumab + intravenous chemotherapy; and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy + intravenous chemotherapy. Optimized implementation was defined as follows. Patients triaged to primary cytoreductive surgery received intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy if optimally or completely cytoreduced, and bevacizumab + intravenous chemotherapy if suboptimally cytoreduced. Patients triaged to neoadjuvant chemotherapy received hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy at interval cytoreductive surgery if optimally or completely cytoreduced, and standard IV chemotherapy if suboptimally cytoreduced. Life expectancy associated with optimized implementation was compared with that of current utilization practices, estimated using published literature and the National Cancer Database. Effects of model uncertainty were evaluated in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Life expectancy associated with optimized implementation vs. current practice was 76.7 vs. 64.5 months (life expectancy gain = 12.2 months). Providing intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy to all eligible patients was the largest driver of life expectancy gains, due to both the potential benefit conferred by intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy and the proportion of eligible women who do not receive intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy in current practice. CONCLUSION: Population-level life expectancy in stage IIIC epithelial ovarian cancer could be substantially improved through greater uptake of available chemotherapy regimens.

Identifying Barriers to Building a Diverse Physician Workforce: A National Survey of the ACR Membership.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to identify potential barriers to building a diverse workforce in radiology and radiation oncology by conducting a national survey of physicians in these fields and studying their reported career experiences. METHODS: An electronic survey of ACR members (February 27, 2018, to April 26, 2018) was conducted in which physicians' attitudes about their work environment, relationships, and culture were queried. The aim was to determine if responses differed by gender or race/ethnicity. In total, 900 invitations were issued; women were oversampled with the goal of equal representation. Descriptive summaries (proportions of yes or no responses) were calculated per item, per subgroup of interest. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify significant associations between gender- and item-specific responses; it was not used in the race/ethnicity analysis because of the small sizes of many subgroups. RESULTS: The response rate was 51.2% (461 of 900). In total, 51.0% of respondents identified as women (235 of 461); the 9.5% (44 of 461) who identified as black or African American, Hispanic, or American Indian or Alaska Native were considered underrepresented minorities. Respondents' mean age was 40.2 ± 10.4 years. Subgroups varied most in their reporting of unfair or disrespectful treatment. Women were significantly more likely than men to report such treatment attributable to gender (50.6% versus 5.4%; odds ratio, 18.00; 95% confidence interval, 9.29-34.86; P < .001), and 27.9% of underrepresented minorities compared with 2.6% of white non-Hispanic respondents reported such treatment attributable to race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Women and underrepresented minorities disproportionately experience unfair or disrespectful treatment in the workplace. Addressing this problem is likely to be critically important for improving workforce diversity.

ACR Appropriateness Criteria® Clinically Suspected Adnexal Mass, No Acute Symptoms.

There are approximately 9.1 pelvic surgeries performed for every histologically confirmed adnexal malignancy in the United States, compared to 2.3 surgeries per malignancy (in oncology centers) and 5.9 surgeries per malignancy (in other centers) in Europe. An important prognostic factor in the long-term survival in patients with ovarian malignancy is the initial management by a gynecological oncologist. With high accuracy of imaging for adnexal mass characterization and consequent appropriate triage to subspecialty referral, the better use of gynecologic oncology can improve treatment outcomes. Ultrasound, including transabdominal, transvaginal, and duplex ultrasound, combined with MRI with contrast can diagnose adnexal masses as benign with specific features (ie, functional masses, dermoid, endometrioma, fibroma, pedunculated fibroid, hydrosalpinx, peritoneal inclusion cyst, Tarlov cyst), malignant, or indeterminate. The American College of Radiology Appropriateness Criteria are evidence-based guidelines for specific clinical conditions that are reviewed annually by a multidisciplinary expert panel. The guideline development and revision include an extensive analysis of current medical literature from peer reviewed journals and the application of well-established methodologies (RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation or GRADE) to rate the appropriateness of imaging and treatment procedures for specific clinical scenarios. In those instances where evidence is lacking or equivocal, expert opinion may supplement the available evidence to recommend imaging or treatment.

Personalized Treatment for Small Renal Tumors: Decision Analysis of Competing Causes of Mortality.

Purpose To compare the effectiveness of personalized treatment for small (≤4 cm) renal tumors versus routine partial nephrectomy (PN), accounting for various competing causes of mortality. Materials and Methods A state-transition microsimulation model was constructed to compare life expectancy of management strategies for small renal tumors by using 1 000 000 simulations in the following ways: routine PN or personalized treatment involving percutaneous ablation for risk factors for worsening chronic kidney disease (CKD), and otherwise PN; biopsy, with triage of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) to PN or ablation depending on risk factors for worsening CKD; active surveillance for growth; and active surveillance when MRI findings are indicative of papillary RCC. Transition probabilities were incorporated from the literature. Effects of parameter variability were assessed in sensitivity analysis. Results In patients of all ages with normal renal function, routine PN yielded the longest life expectancy (eg, 0.67 years in 65-year-old men with nephrometry score [NS] of 4). Otherwise, personalized strategies extended life expectancy versus routine PN: in CKD stages 2 or 3a, moderate or high NS, and no comorbidities, MRI guidance for active surveillance extended life expectancy (eg, 2.60 years for MRI vs PN in CKD 3a, NS 10); and with Charlson comorbidity index of 1 or more, biopsy or active surveillance for growth extended life expectancy (eg, 2.70 years for surveillance for growth in CKD 3a, NS 10). CKD 3b was most effectively managed by using MRI to help predict papillary RCC for surveillance. Conclusion For patients with chronic kidney disease and small renal tumors, personalized treatment selection likely extends life expectancy. © RSNA, 2019 Online supplemental material is available for this article.