Would plain packaging and health warning labels reduce smoking in the presence of informal markets? A choice experiment in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Despite progress made by many countries on the adoption of plain tobacco packaging laws over the last years, low- and middle-income countries, with a large supply of loose cigarettes via informal vendors, remain far behind. AIM: To study the potential effectiveness of plain tobacco packaging and dissuasive cigarette sticks, via willingness-to-pay estimates, when illicit cigarette options are available. METHODS: We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in which respondents chose licit and illicit products with three attributes: packaging (standard vs. plain packaging), stick design (branded stick vs. stick with warning), and price level. The sample, collected on 12/2021, consisted of 1761 respondents from an internet panel involving smokers and nonsmokers. Conditional logit and latent class models were used to estimate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) to avoid restrictive packaging elements. RESULTS: Nonsmokers are willing to pay USD $5.63 for a pack of cigarettes to avoid plain packaging, which is higher than the actual commercial price of illicit cigarettes (USD $2.40). The WTP increases to USD $12.14 in the presence of illicit alternatives. Smokers are also willing to pay to avoid illicit options, which they also deem riskier, and the presence of such options increases the WTP to avoid plain packaging. However, nonsmokers do not perceive the illicit option as riskier. The dissuasive stick (stick with warning) does not affect perceptions of risk and plays a small role in terms of choice for both smokers and nonsmokers. CONCLUSIONS: Even in the presence of illicit tobacco alternatives, plain packaging seems to be as effective in reducing the attractiveness of tobacco products in Colombia as in other countries that have already adopted it. Given conflicting results on the case for dissuasive sticks, there is a need for more research.

Inequality of the crowding-out effect of tobacco expenditure in Colombia.

In recent decades, policy initiatives involving increases in the tobacco tax have increased pressure on budget allocations in poor households. In this study, we examine this issue in the context of the expansion of the social welfare state that has taken place over the last two decades in several emerging economies. This study explores the case of Colombia between 1997 and 2011. In this period, the budget share of the poorest expenditure quintile devoted to tobacco products of smokers' households doubled. We analyse the differences between the poorest and richest quintiles concerning the changes in budget shares, fixing a reference population over time to avoid demographic composition confounders. We find no evidence of crowding-out of education or healthcare expenditures. This is likely to be the result of free universal access to health insurance and basic education for the poor. For higher-income households, tobacco crowds out expenditures on entertainment, leisure activities, and luxury expenditures. This finding should reassure policymakers who are keen to impose tobacco taxes as an element of their public health policy.

Tobacco price elasticity by socioeconomic characteristics in Ecuador.

Smoking is a worldwide epidemic and increased prices are one of the most cost-effective measures to reduce tobacco consumption. This article aims to estimate the price and income elasticity of cigarettes for different population groups in Ecuador. The National Survey of Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditures (ENIGHUR) 2011-2012 was used, which has information on household cigarette consumption and its sociodemographic characteristics. Deaton's Almost Ideal Demand System, which decouples the effect of quality on the price of the good, was applied. The elasticities were calculated for several groups: urban/rural, income levels (tertiles), education level, sex and age ranges of the household head, and frequency of cigarette purchases in households. The estimated price elasticity nationwide is -0.89 and the income elasticity is 0.41, both statistically significant. Households headed by women (-2.22) are more sensitive to an increase in cigarette prices than those headed by men (-0.65) and households headed by people between 20 and 40 years of age (-2.32) have a higher price elasticity compared to country-level estimations. Differences within other groups are not statistically significant.

Impact of Total Indoor Smoking Ban on Cardiovascular Disease Hospitalizations and Mortality: The Case of Chile.

INTRODUCTION: The harmful effects of first and secondhand smoking are well-established. Smoke-free laws aim at protecting nonsmokers. This study aimed to assess the impact of the 2013 total ban on indoor smoking in Chile on hospitalizations and deaths of major cardiovascular events. AIMS AND METHODS: The logarithm of the monthly hospitalization and death rates, standardized by age for every 100 000 inhabitants, were estimated for ischemic heart disease, acute myocardial infarction, strokes, and a composite outcome of ischemic heart diseases (which includes acute myocardial infarction) and strokes. In addition, interrupted time series with synthetic control groups were used to assess changes in levels and trends after the intervention. RESULTS: The total ban on indoor smoking caused significant reductions in death rates for the three diseases studied for age groups above 20 years old. In addition, there were substantial decreases in the post-intervention hospitalization rates for ischemic heart disease: for the 20-44 age group, the decrease was 8.7% compared to the pre-intervention period (p < .01). In comparison, such a reduction was 4% (p < .01) for the ≥65 age group. For acute myocardial infarction, the decrease was 11.5% (p < .01) for the 20-44 age group, while for stroke, it was a 1.2% (p < .01) decrease for the total population. It is estimated that the smoking ban averted 15.6% of the deaths compared with the synthetic control groups. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of total smoke-free environments in Chile contributed to the reduction of mortality for main cardiovascular diseases. This study provides additional evidence of causality linking the policy to health outcomes. IMPLICATIONS: The total indoor smoking ban significantly affected age-standardized hospitalization and deaths. The number of deaths averted by this policy is estimated at approximately 4758 and 5256 for IHD and stroke, respectively, during the 2013-2017 period (15.6% fewer deaths than predicted by the synthetic control groups). The study contributes to the body of evidence that supports total indoor smoking bans.

Reductions in smoking due to ratification of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control in 171 countries.

Smoking globally kills over half of long-term smokers and causes about 7 million annual deaths. The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) is the main global policy strategy to combat smoking, but its effectiveness is uncertain. Our interrupted time series analyses compared before- and after-FCTC trends in the numbers and prevalence of smokers below the age of 25 years (when smoking initiation occurs and during which response to interventions is greatest) and on cessation at 45-59 years (when quitting probably occurs) in 170 countries, excluding China. Contrasting the 10 years after FCTC ratification with the income-specific before-FCTC trends, we observed cumulative decreases of 15.5% (95% confidence interval = -33.2 to -0.7) for the numbers of current smokers and decreases of -7.5% (95% CI = -10.6 to -4.5) for the prevalence of smoking below age 25 years. The quit ratio (comparing the numbers of former and ever smokers) at 45-59 years increased by 1.8% (1.2 to 2.3) 10 years after FCTC ratification. Countries raising taxes by at least 10 percentage points concurrent with ratification observed steeper decreases in all three outcomes than countries that did not. Over a decade across 170 countries, the FCTC was associated with 24 million fewer young smokers and 2 million more quitters.

Taxation of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages: reviewing the evidence and dispelling the myths.

The article reviews the large body of evidence on how taxation affects the consumption of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). There is abundant evidence that demand for tobacco, alcohol, and SSB is price-responsive and that tax changes are quickly passed on to consumers. This suggests that taxes can be highly effective in changing consumption and reducing the burden of diseases associated with consuming these products. Tobacco, alcohol, and SSB industries oppose taxation on similar grounds, mostly on the regressivity of taxes since regressive taxes take a larger percentage of income from low income earners than from middle and high income earners; but also on the effects taxes might have on employment and economic activity; and, in the case of tobacco, the effects taxation has on illicit trade.Contrary to industry arguments, evidence shows that taxation may have short-term negative financial consequences for low-income households. However, medium and long-term financial benefits from reduced healthcare costs, better health, and welfare largely compensate for such consequences. Moreover, taxation does not negatively affect aggregate economic activity or employment, as consumers switch demand to other products that generate employment and may compensate for any employment loss in taxed sectors. Evidence also shows the revenues generated are generally spent on labour-intensive services. In the case of illicit trade in tobacco, evidence shows that illicit trade has not increased globally (rather the opposite) despite increases in tobacco taxes. Profit-maximising smugglers increase illicit cigarette prices along with the increases in licit cigarette prices. This implies that even when increased taxes divert some demand to the illicit market, they push prices up in the illicit market, discouraging consumption.

Illicit trade and real prices of cigarettes in Chile.

INTRODUCTION: The tobacco industry claims that tobacco taxes are responsible for increased illicit trade in Chile, which they estimated at 37% in 2022. However, the evolution of cigarette consumption, estimated from population surveys, and of tax-paying cigarettes shows a decreasing penetration of illicit trade since 2018. METHODS: A gap analysis was used to estimate the evolution of illicit trade based on an arithmetic identity stating that total national cigarette consumption over a given period is equal to the registered consumption as paying taxes plus the cigarettes that are consumed nationally without paying taxes. RESULTS: Illicit trade penetration in Chile was around 10% in 2020, less than half of what the tobacco industry claimed. In addition, the evolution of real prices of cigarettes, calculated using tax collection data, indicates that real prices net of tobacco taxes increased significantly during 2015-2021, a period with no changes in tobacco taxation. The cheapest cigarettes, presumably competing with illicit cigarettes, registered the most significant price increase. CONCLUSIONS: Claims of increasing illicit trade penetration in Chile are unfounded and are not supported by data on consumption and tax-paying cigarettes.

Comparing taxes as a percentage of sugar-sweetened beverage prices in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Background: Excise taxes can be used to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), an important preventable risk factor for noncommunicable diseases. This study aimed to compare novel standardized indicators of the level of taxes applied on SSBs as a percentage of the price across beverage categories in Latin America and the Caribbean. Methods: We used a method developed by the Pan American Health Organization and adapted from the World Health Organization's tobacco tax share. The analysis focused on the most sold brand of five categories of non-alcoholic beverages. Data were collected by surveying ministries of finance and reviewing tax legislation in effect as of March 2019. Findings: Of the 27 countries analyzed, 17 applied excise taxes on SSBs. Of these, median excise taxes represented the highest share of the price for large sugar-sweetened carbonated drinks (6·5%) and the lowest for energy drinks (2·3%). In countries where excise taxes were applied on bottled waters, tax incidence exceeded the one applied on most SSBs. Overall, excise tax shares were higher in Latin America than in the Caribbean. Including all other indirect taxes (e.g., value added tax), median total tax shares were between 12·8% and 17·5%. At least two countries earmarked part of SSB excise tax revenues for health purposes. Interpretation: Excise tax levels are generally low in the region. From a public health perspective, tax rates could be increased, and tax designs improved (e.g., excluding bottled waters). The method describe here provides a feasible and informative way to monitor SSB taxation and could be replicated in other regions and over time. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies through the Global Health Advocacy Incubator.

Illicit trade in tobacco products: recent trends and coming challenges.

BACKGROUND: Illicit trade in tobacco products is a menace to the goal of eliminating tobacco consumption. Although tax policy is very effective in reducing consumption, illicit trade can reduce (though not eliminate) its effectiveness. METHODS: This article discusses the recent evolution of illicit trade and the context in which it occurred; the new methods that have been developed to measure it and, finally, the challenges in the next phase in the control of illicit trade. RESULTS: There has been a remarkable stability in the penetration of cigarette illicit trade in the past decade. Such a stability, however, occurred in a world of shrinking tobacco consumption, implying a decreasing absolute illicit trade. Most countries have progressed in increasing tobacco taxes and changing tax structures. Prices of illicit cigarettes follow legal cigarette prices. Concomitantly, many new studies, independent from the tobacco industry, have been conducted allowing for better understanding of the illicit trade and providing inputs to its solution. The entry into force of the WHO FCTC Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products provides both a global and a national policy framework to further curb illicit trade. Instruments such as track-and-trace systems must be promoted and adopted to maximise reductions in illicit trade. CONCLUSIONS: Global efforts to curb the illicit trade in tobacco products are gaining momentum and progress has been made in many parts of the world. The next decade can witness a decisive decrease in tobacco consumption, both licit and illicit, if countries further engage in international collaboration.

Seguir avanzando en las Américas: el control del tabaco fomenta el desarrollo sostenible

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Changes in parental smoking behavior and children's health status in Chile.

Studies on parental smoking behavior have mostly been conducted for developed countries and show that current parental smoking is negatively associated with children's current health. Using four waves of a Chilean longitudinal survey (Encuesta de Protección Social), we estimate probit and ordinary least squares models relating parents' self-report of their children's current health status to several covariates, including current parental smoking status and change (transitions) in parental smoking status across the waves of the survey. The data were collected in the years 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2015. The working sample includes 25,052 observations. The study revealed that parents' self-report of their children's current health status is strongly associated with current and past parental smoking status. Parents who smoke have an increased 11.17% probability of reporting that their children are in fair, poor, or very poor health status, when compared to non-smoking parents. The effect is stronger if the smoker is the mother, and it is exacerbated if she is less educated or unemployed/inactive. In addition, quitting smoking has a significant positive effect on children's reported health status, which is greater if the mother quits smoking. Cessation among mothers who are unemployed or inactive is also associated with a more positive assessment of their children's health status. The findings suggest that cessation programs may have health benefits not only for smoking parents, but also for their children. Improving coverage or establishing a national cessation program may have important present and future effects on population health and well-being.

Excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages in Latin America and the Caribbean / Impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en América Latina y el Caribe / Imposto especial de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas na América Latina e no Caribe

ABSTRACT Objective. To characterize the design of excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in Latin America and the Caribbean and assess opportunities to increase their impact on SSB consumption and health. Methods. A comprehensive search and review of the legislation in effect as of March 2019, collected through existing Pan American Health Organization and World Health Organization monitoring tools, secondary sources, and surveying ministries of finance. The analysis focused on the type of products taxed, and the structure and base of these excise taxes. Results. Out of the 33 countries analyzed, 21 apply excise taxes on SSBs. Seven countries also apply excise taxes on bottled water and at least four include sugar-sweetened milk drinks. Ten of these excise taxes are ad valorem with some tax bases set early in the value chain, seven are amount-specific, and four have either a combined or mixed structure. Three countries apply excise taxes based on sugar concentration. Conclusions. While the number of countries applying excise taxes on SSBs is promising, there is great heterogeneity in design in terms of structure, tax base, and products taxed. Existing excise taxes could be further leveraged to improve their impact on SSB consumption and health by including all categories of SSBs, excluding bottled water, and relying more on amount-specific taxes regularly adjusted for inflation and possibly based on sugar concentration. All countries would benefit from additional guidance. Future research should aim to address this gap.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Caracterizar el diseño de los impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en América Latina y el Caribe, y evaluar las oportunidades de aumentar su impacto en el consumo y la salud. Métodos. Se llevó a cabo una búsqueda y una evaluación exhaustivas de legislaciones vigentes a marzo del 2019, recopilada mediante las herramientas de seguimiento ya existentes de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud y de la Organización Mundial de la Salud, fuentes secundarias, así como mediante una encuesta a ministerios de finanzas. El análisis se centró en el tipo de productos gravados y la estructura y la base de estos impuestos selectivos. Resultados. De los 33 países evaluados, en 21 se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas. En siete países también se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo de agua embotellada y en al menos cuatro, se incluyen las bebidas lácteas azucaradas. Diez de estos impuestos selectivos al consumo son de tipo ad valorem con algunas bases imponibles fijadas al principio de la cadena de valor, siete son de tipo específico y cuatro son de estructura combinada o mixta. En tres países se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo en función de la concentración de azúcares del producto. Conclusiones. Si bien el número de países en que se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas es prometedor, existe una gran heterogeneidad en su diseño en cuanto a la estructura, la base imponible y los productos gravados. Se podrían aprovechar aún más los impuestos selectivos existentes a fin de que tengan un mayor impacto sobre la salud y el consumo si se incluyen todas las categorías de bebidas azucaradas, excluyendo el agua embotellada, y recurriendo más a impuestos de tipo específico ajustados frecuentemente según la inflación y basados posiblemente en la concentración de azúcares del producto. Todos los países se beneficiarían si hubiera mayor orientación. Las próximas investigaciones deberían abordar esta brecha.

RESUMO Objetivo. Caracterizar o modelo dos impostos especiais de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas na América Latina e no Caribe e avaliar oportunidades para aumentar o impacto desses impostos no consumo de bebidas açucaradas e na saúde. Métodos. Realizou-se uma pesquisa ampla e a análise de legislações vigentes em março de 2019, com informações obtidas por meio de instrumentos de monitoramento da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS) e da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) já existentes, fontes secundárias e levantamento junto aos ministérios da Fazenda. A análise centrou-se no tipo de produtos tributados e na estrutura e base desses impostos especiais de consumo. Resultados. Dos 33 países analisados, 21 aplicam impostos especiais de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas. Em sete países os impostos especiais de consumo incidem também sobre água engarrafada e, em pelo menos quatro, incluem bebidas lácteas açucaradas. Dez desses tributos especiais são ad valorem com algumas bases tributárias estabelecidas no início da cadeia de valor, sete são de tipo específico e quatro têm uma estrutura combinada ou mista. Em três países os impostos especiais são estabelecidos com base na concentração de açúcares do produto. Conclusões. Apesar do número promissor de países com impostos especiais de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas, verifica-se grande heterogeneidade nos modelos de tributação em termos de estrutura, base tributária e produtos tributados. Os impostos especiais de consumo vigentes poderiam ser mais bem aproveitados para aumentar o impacto no consumo de bebidas açucaradas e na saúde: incluir todas as categorias de bebidas açucaradas, excluir água engarrafada e recorrer mais a impostos de tipo específico com a correção periódica pela inflação e, possivelmente, com base na concentração de açúcares do produto. Todos os países se beneficiariam em receber mais orientação. Pesquisas futuras devem ter como objetivo abordar essa lacuna.

Price and expenditure elasticity of cigarette demand in El Salvador: a household-level analysis and simulation of a tax increase.

BACKGROUND: In El Salvador, 8.8% of adults 15 years and older smoke cigarettes. Little is known about the sensitivity of cigarette consumption among the adults in El Salvador to tax and price increases and income growth. METHODS: Elasticities are estimated using Deaton's Almost Ideal Demand System model applied to data from the National Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2005/2006 for the total population and separately for income groups. The estimates are then used to simulate the effects of a proposed change in tobacco tax policy on cigarette consumption and tax revenue. FINDINGS: The estimated price elasticities (-0.77 for the total population) are within the range of price elasticity estimates available for low and middle-income countries. Given the estimated elasticities, a tobacco tax increase is expected to reduce the number of smokers (by almost 20%) and increase tobacco tax revenue (by more than 50%). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing tobacco taxes has the potential to decrease consumption in El Salvador and raise fiscal revenues. The tobacco tax burden in El Salvador is one of the lowest in Latin America and the social costs of tobacco consumption largely exceed the tobacco tax revenues. An increase in tobacco tax could significantly decrease the number of smokers and reduce the burden of tobacco-related diseases and deaths.

Understanding the Role of Values in Health Policy Decision-Making From the Perspective of Policy-Makers and Stakeholders: A Multiple-Case Embedded Study in Chile and Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Chile and Colombia are examples of Latin American countries with health systems shaped by similar values. Recently, both countries have crafted policies to regulate the participation of private for-profit insurance companies in their health systems, but through very different mechanisms. This study asks: what values are important in the decision-making processes that crafted these policies? And how and why are they used? METHODS: An embedded multiple-case study design was carried out for 2 specific decisions in each country: (1) in Chile, the development of the Universal Plan of Explicit Entitlements -AUGE/GES - and mandating universal coverage of treatments for high-cost diseases; and (2) in Colombia, the declaration of health as a fundamental right and a mechanism to explicitly exclude technologies that cannot be publicly funded. We interviewed key informants involved in one or more of the decisions and/or in the policy analysis and development process that contributed to the eventual decision. The data analysis involved a constant comparative approach and thematic analysis for each case study. RESULTS: From the 40 individuals who were invited, 28 key informants participated. A tension between 2 important values was identified for each decision (eg, solidarity vs. individualism for the AUGE/GES plan in Chile; human dignity vs. sustainability for the declaration of the right to health in Colombia). Policy-makers used values in the decisionmaking process to frame problems in meaningful ways, to guide policy development, as a pragmatic instrument to make decisions, and as a way to legitimize decisions. In Chile, values such as individualism and free choice were incorporated in decision-making because attaining private health insurance was seen as an indicator of improved personal economic status. In Colombia, human dignity was incorporated as the core value because the Constitutional Court asserted its importance in its use of judicial activism as a check on the power of the executive and legislative branches. CONCLUSION: There is an opportunity to open further exploration of the role of values in different health decisions, political sectors besides health, and even other jurisdictions.

Illicit cigarette trade in Metropolitan Santiago de Chile.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate with a rigorous statistical methodology and independent from the tobacco industry the prevalence and consumption of illicit cigarettes in Metropolitan Santiago de Chile, in addition to identifying the variables statistically associated with choosing to smoke illicit cigarettes. METHODS: Surveys of 851 smokers who reside in the Metropolitan Santiago were collected using a sampling design that combined a randomisation of high-traffic points and a quota sampling to approximate the smoking population. Photographs of packs along with questions on where they were bought were used to define whether cigarettes were licit or illicit. After this identification, the statistical association between the decision to smoke illicit cigarettes and sociodemographic variables and smoking habits was estimated using probit models. RESULTS: The proportion of smokers smoking illicit cigarettes in Metropolitan Santiago was 10.9%. Adjusted by smoking intensity, 16.3% of cigarettes smoked in a month were illicit. Models show that the probability of smoking illicit cigarettes is inversely associated with employment status (ie, employed/inactive/unemployed), and smokers with lower levels of education are more likely to smoke illicit cigarettes. Though smokers' incomes are not directly measured, both employment status and educational levels are indicative that illicit cigarette consumption is more prevalent among low-income groups. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of smokers consuming illicit cigarettes estimated in this research is less than half of the widely publicised claims of the tobacco industry. Furthermore, past and present pricing strategies by the tobacco industry indicate that, contrary to public statements, the tobacco industry is not concerned by illicit trade.

The association between flavor capsule cigarette use and sociodemographic variables: Evidence from Chile.

PURPOSE: The objective of this article is to examine the factors associated with smoking of flavor capsule cigarettes in Chile, where the popularity of these products has increased dramatically, a trend increasingly observed across the world. METHODS: A representative poll of 851 smokers in Metropolitan Santiago de Chile, which comprises 40% of the country's total population, was implemented in mid-2017. Smokers were given a questionnaire that collected socio-demographic information and information on smoking patterns. Four discrete-choice models were estimated on the decision to smoke flavor capsule cigarettes to better understand the statistical relationships between traits of smokers and the consumption of flavor capsule cigarettes. RESULTS: The results of these models show that each year less in a smoker's age increases the likelihood of preferring flavor capsule cigarettes by, on average, between 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points. If the smoker is a woman, the likelihood of preferring flavor capsule cigarettes increases between 13.4 and 13.5 percentage points. Results also reveal a positive relationship between the price paid and the consumption of flavor capsule cigarettes, indicating that these cigarettes tend to be more expensive. There is no statistical relationship between participation in the labor market and smoking these products. CONCLUSIONS: Chile has the world's highest prevalence of flavor capsule cigarette smoking, which is concentrated among young people (25 years and younger) and females. No relationship between socioeconomic status and use of these products is found, though there are indications that such relationship may exist, as they were at the time of study 14% more expensive, on average, than conventional non-flavored cigarettes. As in most countries, the tobacco industry appears to be deliberately promoting these products with the goal of halting or slowing the decline in cigarette consumption in Chile. Thus, to reduce cigarette consumption (especially among youth), restricting or forbidding cigarette flavorings of all types, including flavor capsules, would be an effective strategy.